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DOE OSTI2021

Long-term carbon emission reduction potential of building retrofits with dynamically changing electricity emission factors

Buildings account for approximately 36% of the United States' total carbon emissions and building retrofits have great potential to reduce carbon emissions. Current research adopts a constant electricity emission factor although it changes over time due to the increase of renewable energy generation. Here, to accurately predict emission reduction potential of building retrofits, this study develops a novel method by using dynamically changing electricity emission factors. Using medium office buildings as an example, we predicted emission reduction of eight building retrofit measures from 2020 to 2050 in five locations in the U.S. with distinct climates and renewable adoption rates. To evaluate emission reduction potential sensitivity to the compositions of electricity generation, five scenarios for renewable energy adoptions are investigated. The results reveal several new phenomena on emission reduction potential of building retrofits for medium offices in the U.S.: (1) it decreases from 2026 to 2050; (2) it has the same trend with coal usage; and (3) it reaches the maximum under the high renewable cost scenario. Based on the results, it is recommended that building retrofits should focus on 1) improving lighting and equipment efficiency; 2) locations with higher coal usage rate, and 3) buildings under the high renewable cost scenario. The new method can also be used for predicting emission reduction potential of the building sector in the U.S. by applying to other building types and regions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cost and life cycle analysis for deep CO 2 emissions reduction of steelmaking: Blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace and electric arc furnace technologies

Iron and steel manufacturing is the largest contributor to CO 2 emissions among heavy industries worldwide. This is mostly due to the use of coal in blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) process for virgin (primary) steel production. The electricity generation mix used in the electric arc furnace (EAF) process to recycle scrap steel also contributes to the CO 2 emission associated with secondary steel production. To decarbonize iron and steel sector, we investigated decarbonization options for BF-BOF and EAF processes, including energy efficiency, carbon capture and storage, and the use of clean energy sources, in various BF-BOF and EAF process configurations. Additionally, for each decarbonization approach, we evaluated the CO 2 reduction potential via life cycle analysis (LCA) and estimated the associated cost through techno-economic analysis (TEA). A typical U.S. BF-BOF for virgin steel production has a cradle-to-gate (CTG) CO 2 emissions of 1,990 kg/MT steel with a levelized cost of steel (LCOS) of $\$439$/MT steel, while a typical U.S. EAF process for secondary steel production in the United States has a CTG CO 2 emissions of 270 kg/MT steel with a LCOS of $\$365$/MT steel. Combining renewable energy sources and carbon capture, BF-BOF CTG CO 2 emissions can be reduced to 16 kg/MT steel, and EAF configurations can achieve similar deep reductions to reach 25 kg/MT steel. The corresponding LCOS with these decarbonization levels is estimated to increase to $\$542$/MT steel and $\$348$/MT steel, respectively. The estimated CO 2 avoidance costs vary from -$\$90$/MT CO 2 to $\$646$/MT CO 2 , depending on the various decarbonization technologies and energy prices.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States (2023 Edition)

Estimates of the potential of renewable energy are essential for understanding how we can decarbonize our electric grid and economy. They provide key data for policymakers, land managers, and energy modelers by defining the quantity, quality, and cost of renewable resources. However, estimating renewable energy potential is challenging and requires frequent updates because of rapid advances in technology, cost reductions, and uncertainty about developable land that are due to social, regulatory, and environmental factors. Additionally, the complex processes involved in renewable energy development require regular reviews of methods and assumptions, which can also impact our understanding of renewable potential. In this, the 2023 edition of this annual report, we present new estimates of the technical potential for land-based wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) for the contiguous United States (CONUS). We also provide cost estimates for the available resources, presenting representative supply curves that can be used in downstream modeling and analysis. Additionally, we introduce the new methodologies used to estimate wind capacity, wind energy losses, transmission cost and representation, updated technology cost and design, and scenarios of siting constraints designed to help bound the uncertainty of renewable potential.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2014

Potential for Integrating Entry Guidance into the Multi-Disciplinary Entry Vehicle Optimization Environment

The state-of-the-art in vehicle design decouples flight feasible trajectory generation from the optimization process of an entry spacecraft shape. The disadvantage to this decoupled process is seen when a particular aeroshell does not meet in-flight requirements when integrated into Guidance, Navigation, and Control simulations. It is postulated that the integration of a guidance algorithm into the design process will provide a real-time, rapid trajectory generation technique to enhance the robustness of vehicle design solutions. The potential benefit of this integration is a reduction in design cycles (possible cost savings) and increased accuracy in the aerothermal environment (possible mass savings). This work examines two aspects: 1) the performance of a reference tracking guidance algorithm for five different geometries with the same reference trajectory and 2) the potential of mass savings from improved aerothermal predictions. An Apollo Derived Guidance (ADG) algorithm is used in this study. The baseline geometry and five test case geometries were flown using the same baseline trajectory. The guided trajectory results are compared to separate trajectories determined in a vehicle optimization study conducted for NASA's Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing System Analysis. This study revealed several aspects regarding the potential gains and required developments for integrating a guidance algorithm into the vehicle optimization environment. First, the generation of flight feasible trajectories is only as good as the robustness of the guidance algorithm. The set of dispersed geometries modelled aerodynamic dispersions that ranged from +/-1% to +/-17% and a single extreme case was modelled where the aerodynamics were approximately 80% less than the baseline geometry. The ADG, as expected, was able to guide the vehicle into the aeroshell separation box at the target location for dispersions up to 17%, but failed for the 80% dispersion cases. Finally, the results revealed that including flight feasible trajectories for a set of dispersed geometries has the potential to save mass up to 430 kg.

spacecraft guidance↗

NASA NTRS1996

Advanced Space Propulsion

This presentation describes a number of advanced space propulsion technologies with the potential for meeting the need for dramatic reductions in the cost of access to space, and the need for new propulsion capabilities to enable bold new space exploration (and, ultimately, space exploitation) missions of the 21st century. For example, current Earth-to-orbit (e.g., low Earth orbit, LEO) launch costs are extremely high (ca. $10,000/kg); a factor 25 reduction (to ca. $400/kg) will be needed to produce the dramatic increases in space activities in both the civilian and government sectors identified in the Commercial Space Transportation Study (CSTS). Similarly, in the area of space exploration, all of the relatively 'easy' missions (e.g., robotic flybys, inner solar system orbiters and landers; and piloted short-duration Lunar missions) have been done. Ambitious missions of the next century (e.g., robotic outer-planet orbiters/probes, landers, rovers, sample returns; and piloted long-duration Lunar and Mars missions) will require major improvements in propulsion capability. In some cases, advanced propulsion can enable a mission by making it faster or more affordable, and in some cases, by directly enabling the mission (e.g., interstellar missions). As a general rule, advanced propulsion systems are attractive because of their low operating costs (e.g., higher specific impulse, ISD) and typically show the most benefit for relatively 'big' missions (i.e., missions with large payloads or AV, or a large overall mission model). In part, this is due to the intrinsic size of the advanced systems as compared to state-of-the-art (SOTA) chemical propulsion systems. Also, advanced systems often have a large 'infrastructure' cost, either in the form of initial R&D costs or in facilities hardware costs (e.g., laser or microwave transmission ground stations for beamed energy propulsion). These costs must then be amortized over a large mission to be cost-competitive with a SOTA system with a low initial development and infrastructure cost and a high operating cost. Note however that this has resulted in a 'Catch 22' standoff between the need for large initial investment that is amortized over many launches to reduce costs, and the limited number of launches possible at today's launch costs. Some examples of missions enabled (either in cost or capability) by advanced propulsion include long-life station-keeping or micro-spacecraft applications using electric propulsion or BMDO-derived micro-thrusters, low-cost orbit raising (LEO to GEO or Lunar orbit) using electric propulsion, robotic planetary missions using aerobraking or electric propulsion, piloted Mars missions using aerobraking and/or propellant production from Martian resources, very fast (100-day round-trip) piloted Mars missions using fission or fusion propulsion, and, finally, interstellar missions using fusion, antimatter, or beamed energy. The NASA Advanced Propulsion Technology program at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) is aimed at assessing the feasibility of a range of near-term to far term advanced propulsion technologies that have the potential to reduce costs and/or enable future space activities. The program includes cooperative modeling and research activities between JPL and various universities and industry; and directly supported independent research at universities and industry. The cooperative program consists of mission studies, research and development of ion engine technology using C60 (Buckminsterfullerene) propellant, and research and development of lithium-propellant Lorentz-force accelerator (LFA) engine technology. The university/industry-supported research includes modeling and proof-of-concept experiments in advanced, high-lsp, long-life electric propulsion, and in fusion propulsion.

Frisbee, Robert H.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Climate and Health Impacts of US Emissions Reductions Consistent with 2 C

An emissions trajectory for the US consistent with 2 C warming would require marked societal changes, making it crucial to understand the associated benefits. Previous studies have examined technological potentials and implementation costs and public health benefits have been quantified for less-aggressive potential emissions-reduction policies, but researchers have not yet fully explored the multiple benefits of reductions consistent with 2 C. We examine the impacts of such highly ambitious scenarios for clean energy and vehicles. US transportation emissions reductions avoid approx.0.03 C global warming in 2030 (0.15 C in 2100), whereas energy emissions reductions avoid approx.0.05-0.07 C 2030 warming (approx.0.25 C in 2100). Nationally, however, clean energy policies produce climate disbenefits including warmer summers (although these would be eliminated by the remote effects of similar policies if they were undertaken elsewhere). The policies also greatly reduce damaging ambient particulate matter and ozone. By 2030, clean energy policies could prevent approx.175,000 premature deaths, with approx.22,000 (11,000-96,000; 95% confidence) fewer annually thereafter, whereas clean transportation could prevent approx.120,000 premature deaths and approx.14,000 (9,000-52,000) annually thereafter. Near-term national benefits are valued at approx.US$250 billion (140 billion to 1,050billion) per year, which is likely to exceed implementation costs. Including longer-term, worldwide climate impacts, benefits roughly quintuple, becoming approx.5-10 times larger than estimated implementation costs. Achieving the benefits, however, would require both larger and broader emissions reductions than those in current legislation or regulations.

policies↗

DOE OSTI2026

What Is the Best Use of Biomass? A Harmonized LCA-TEA Framework Quantifying Economic and Environmental Metrics for Bioenergy Pathways

Bioresource utilization is expected to play a pivotal role in complementing existing energy pathways and enhancing energy resilience. This study develops a harmonized life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) framework to evaluate the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction potential, minimum fuel selling price (MFSP), and marginal abatement cost (MAC) of bioenergy pathways. We analyze 19 pathways, including liquid biofuels (via catalytic fast pyrolysis, Fischer–Tropsch synthesis, and gasification), bioelectricity, and biomass-to-hydrogen, with and without carbon capture and storage (CCS). The GHG impacts are assessed using the GREET 2022 model, while U.S. Billion-Ton 2016 biomass availability projections are used to estimate scale-up potential. Additionally, we evaluate the influence of a low-carbon electricity grid on pathway performance. Our results show that CCS implementation reduces carbon intensities (CI) to net-negative values for several pathways, with MAC ranging from $\$$32 to $\$$600 per metric ton (MT) CO2e avoided. Bioelectricity pathways with CCS achieve the lowest MAC ($\$$32–$\$$68/tCO2e), while liquid biofuels and hydrogen pathways remain critical for hard-to-abate sectors like aviation and heavy industry. Pathways with net-positive electricity demand benefit from a low-carbon grid, whereas those co-producing electricity experience increased MAC under lower electricity grid CI scenarios. This open-source framework provides a robust tool for harmonized evaluation of bioenergy pathways, enabling policymakers and stakeholders to identify cost-effective strategies for biomass utilization and carbon abatement at scale. The findings underscore the importance of CCS, co-product credits, and feedstock availability in optimizing bioenergy deployment for a low-carbon economy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS1990

Advanced composites research and development for transport aircraft

This paper highlights past experiences, lessons learned, state-of-the-art and current research activities directed at providing an integrated 'affordable' data base for composite structures. Composite secondary and empennage structures are in production on several transport aircraft. The weight reduction potential of composite structures is well documented. However, the cost to develop and produce composite structures remains the major barrier to increased application of this technology to transport aircraft. Specific technology items that are being developed under the NASA Advanced Composites Technology Program are described. Materials, design concepts, structural mechanics methodology and manufacturing processes and equipment are under development or are emerging that are expected to lead to an integrated 'affordable' data base. Technology verification for the next decade is expected to require fabrication and testing of full-scale wing-box and fuselage-section components before certificatiaon can occur and production commitments can be made.

Davis, John G., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Market Assessment of Forward-Looking Turbulence Sensing Systems

This viewgraph presentation provides a cost benefit analysis of three next-generation forward-looking turbulence sensing systems: X band turbulence radar system for convective turbulence, LIDAR based turbulence systems to sense clear air turbulence and a combined hybrid system. Parameters for the cost benefit analysis were established using a business model which considered injury rates, cost of injuries, indirect costs, market penetration rate estimates and product success characteristics. Topics covered include: study approach, business case equations, data acquisition, benchmark analysis. Data interpretation from the cost benefit analysis is presented. The researchers conclude that the market potential for these products is based primarily on injury cost reduction and that X band radar systems have the greatest chance for commercial success.

Kauffmann, Paul↗

DOE OSTI2025

Technology Case Study: Economic, Sustainability, and Deployment Considerations for Sustainable Aviation Fuels Produced via Lignocellulosic Sugar Catalysis

This report presents a technology case study reflecting one exemplary representative pathway for the conversion of lignocellulosic sugars to sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) via aqueous phase reforming (APR) catalysis, considered within a broader integrated biorefinery framework based on biochemical processing operations. While far from the only option for converting sugars to SAF, this pathway was selected as a case study here based on its relatively high technology maturity and simplistic processing approach (avoiding complex separations or other equipment scalability challenges), coupled with the potential for high fuel yields and favorable costs/carbon intensities with opportunities for further near-term optimization. The report considers key process integration and engineering design considerations for a modeled hypothetical, nth-plant commercial biorefinery, reflecting a number of processing options and parameters envisioned to be achievable as future goals. Resultant outputs from Aspen Plus process simulations are evaluated through techno-economic and life cycle analyses (TEA and LCA), including implications for marginal cost of CO2 abatement and inclusion of currently-applicable policy incentives. Moving beyond base case configurations, a number of alternative scenarios are also evaluated for their ability to further improve economics, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and marginal cost of abatement, highlighting a path to achieve deep decarbonization goals of more than 70% GHG reduction for SAF (with the potential to reach net-negative carbon intensities in some cases) under reasonable fuel production costs. The report also highlights future opportunities and gaps for further research on this technology pathway.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A System Approach to Deep Heating Savings Through Measurement, Management, and Motivation

Across multi-tenant commercial office and multifamily buildings, centrally metered fuel use represents a substantial fraction of whole-building energy use. Energy audit practitioners understand that improving heating distribution efficiency is typically more of an opportunity than combustion efficiency and that differing thermal comfort preferences between tenants are the bane of operators across these building typologies. There is an unmet market need for retrofit technologies that allow for the delivery of the right amount of heat to the right spaces, at the right time. The Energy Management and Information System (EMIS) package fills this gap through enhanced controls and metering, incorporating low-cost sensors and wireless communication infrastructure to provide a platform for ongoing commissioning and tenant feedback, including heat cost allocation. With support from the US DOE Building Technologies Office, Steven Winter Associates, Inc. (SWA) partnered with Sentient Buildings, E Source, building owners, and utility and policy stakeholders, to demonstrate a market viable EMIS that achieves a reduction in space heating energy use by reducing heating load, improving control, and positively impacting behavior while providing an acceptable financial return. In this study, EMIS packages were implemented in two New York City multifamily rental buildings. Both buildings conducted basic mechanical work (e.g., repairing steam traps) to ensure the heating system was operating well before any tenant feedback was layered in. Heating Energy Use Reports (HEUR) were created to provide tenants with social comparisons and energy savings tips to influence their behavior; these were provided monthly to all tenants in both buildings. Additionally, one building allocated heating costs to a portion of the tenants. Heat cost allocation (HCA) has a long history in the European Union (EU), although it is not common in the US or in steam-heated buildings. SWA leveraged existing EU best practices and stakeholder feedback to develop a Heat Cost Allocation algorithm that was considered equitable and intuitive. Energy use and tenant behavior impacts were tracked throughout the study. The basic mechanical repair work saved between 11-20% of heating energy. Those savings rose to 17-24% with the addition of tenant feedback. While it may not be possible to precisely determine the impact of COVID-19 on research studies like this, there may have been additional savings realized had the study taken place in a period of normal occupancy patterns. These types of central heating systems have been a blind spot for utilities, who have traditionally had little visibility into detailed behind-the-meter gas usage. Heating energy savings stayed consistent during the coldest months, indicating the potential for utilities to utilize EMIS packages for peak gas demand reductions or demand response programs. Tenant comfort was also improved. Post installation, room temperatures more closely matched thermostat set points. Perhaps due to this greater level of control, the vast majority of tenants being billed for heating were accepting of the allocation costs. And tenants receiving heat cost allocations were more likely to reduce their thermostat setpoints than tenants receiving behavioral feedback without financial impacts were. Variation in building specifics makes it difficult to provide precise energy and financial savings estimates. But within the range of expected conditions, the study identified a few key variables that can have the greatest impact on financial returns: the cost of fuel, the ability and willingness to allocate heating costs to tenants, and a well-functioning heating system as a starting point. This study focused on two multifamily buildings, but additional use cases, such as commercial buildings and affordable housing, should be explored to better understand the full market potential. While this type of upgrade has the potential for deep energy reductions and cost savings, future projects should take into account the balance of costs and benefits between owners and tenants, especially in the affordable, regulated, or other low-to-moderate income (LMI) segments of the market. Rent credits, utility allowances, or a shared savings program are possible options to accelerate adoption of this strategy in these market segments.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Combined Cycle Integrated Thermal Energy Storage “CiTES” (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The Phase I of this project confirmed the technical feasibility of a Combined Cycle integrated Thermal Energy Storage “CiTES” system, calculated the key performance parameters like power efficiency and costs, and proved its commercial value with full-year simulations for several US electricity markets with high degree of variable renewable generation and volatile hourly electricity prices. The core element of this project is the Electro Thermal Energy Storage (ETES) technology from Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy GmbH, using thermally stable and inexpensive volcanic rocks as storage material and air as heat transfer medium. This technology is backed by more than 10 years of experience and a 440MMBTU (130MWh-th) pilot plant in Hamburg, Germany, which is in operation since 2019. The integration of this thermal storage in an existing combined cycle power plant (CCPP) is typical power plant technology without any major technology risks. It allows the storage of inexpensive renewable energy during times of surplus renewable generation and the discharge of this energy in times of high energy demand when the fossil plant is in operation. This supplements the fossil power generation with CO2-emission-free energy. The secondary effect of the CiTES system is that a small part of the stored thermal energy is used to keep the heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) and steam turbine (ST) of the combined cycle power plant in hot and ready-to-start condition. This enables the plant to start rapidly when fossil generation is required to satisfy demand as soon variable generation drops off in the evenings or during cloud cover and calm wind periods. Without pre-warming of the HRSG and ST, the CCPP would need several hours for a cold or warm start, burn a lot of gas and release high NOx emissions during start and wouldn’t be able to use the short times of high energy prices in an efficient or economical manner. The economic parameters of CiTES were determined by a full year “8760” simulation using a data set calculation for each of the hours of the year, and historical electricity and gas prices. For consistency, the simulations were focused on the pre-COVID year 2019. The financially most attractive markets were in the Energy Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) region, which allowed substantial value generation with arbitrage (charge with cheap energy during renewable surplus times and discharge when energy is needed and expensive). The improvement of flexibility with the CiTES system by pre-heating and warm-keeping of the CCPP allowed for additional power generation during short time periods when demand is high but renewable generation is down; when the hourly energy prices are highest in these markets. The simulations are based on 2019 data, when ERCOT had 27GW of installed photovoltaic (PV) and wind generation. They showed that the created revenue with the prototypically sized CiTES system of 1,000MMBTU (300MWh-th) falls a little bit short of what is expected from a commercially viable investment. The system has optimization opportunities for cost reduction and increased effectiveness which will be realized during a potential Phase II Pre-FEED study following this project. Furthermore, it is safe to assume that a lot of renewable generation capacity will be added all over the US in the coming years. As an example, ERCOT is predicting to more than double its renewable generation from 27GW in 2019 to a forecasted 63GW in 2023. This will increase the amount of renewable overproduction exponentially. This rapid increase of local overproduction and the need to curtail renewable generation is well documented by the California ISO (www.CAISO.com / managing oversupply). However, the simulations also revealed a weakness in the structure of the electricity markets in the US. More specifically, when electricity prices are very low and approaching negative levels, the owners of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) will curtail a part of their facility to stabilize the price by reducing supply. This results in a situation in which storage facilities, which are integrated in existing fossil assets and don’t have the behind-the-meter benefit of a VRE, won’t be able to purchase low cost – otherwise curtailed – renewable energy off the grid. A special tariff, which motivates VRE owners to sell otherwise curtailed renewable energy to storage facilities (Hydrogen, thermal, pumped hydro, etc.) can solve this issue. The implementation of such a regulating tariff by Independent System Operators, thus avoiding renewable curtailment, is a pre condition for successful commercialization for renewable energy storage technologies. With this advancement of design and technology and improvements in the market environment, it can be expected that the Combined Cycle integrated Thermal Energy Storage proves itself as an important innovation to keep highly efficient, natural gas-based power generation economically successful and relevant for the power industry in the United States of America.

Wolf, Thorsten↗

DOE OSTI2024

Adoption of Plug-in Electric Vehicles: Local Fuel Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions Across the U.S.

The dependence on gasoline-powered light-duty automobiles has made U.S. households vulnerable to the burden of fuel costs. Tailpipe emissions from these vehicles constitute 58% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the U.S., which are damaging to the environment (EPA, 2023). The adoption of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) has been shown to effectively reduce fuel costs and GHG emissions. However, local effects on these benefits are not well understood by American consumers, potentially limiting adoption and therefore the realization of PEV benefits at scale (MacInnis & Krosnick, 2020; EY Americas, 2023). To fill this research gap, this study estimates the fuel cost savings and GHG emission reductions at the state and ZIP code levels by considering local fuel prices, vehicle class preference, average vehicle model year, fuel efficiencies, and driving intensities. The study's findings reveal that the adoption of PEVs can yield substantial benefits in terms of fuel cost savings and GHG emission reductions nationwide. Specifically, driving a battery electric vehicle (BEV) is estimated to result in annual savings of up to $\$2,200$, while driving a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) can lead to savings up to $\$1,500$, when compared to an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) of equivalent size. Moreover, using population-weighted averages by ZIP code, BEVs and PHEVs show the potential to save 400 and 200 grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per mile, respectively, compared to a representative ICEV of the same class. The magnitude of fuel cost savings and emissions reduction vary by region due to various factors. Generally, regions with high gasoline prices, low electricity prices, preferences for larger vehicles, and high driving intensities tend to see relatively large fuel savings. The emissions reductions are more pronounced in areas with clean grids where consumer preferences lie with large vehicles. This regional variability underscores the importance of considering local contextual factors when assessing the potential benefits of PEV adoption. In more than 99% of U.S. ZIP codes, PEVs result in overall savings in fuel use (and subsequent costs) and GHG emissions. While not a central focus of this analysis, reductions in GHG tailpipe emissions from PEV adoption would also come with reductions in criteria pollutant emissions, contributing to improved local air quality depending on the PEV penetration, population density, and electricity generation infrastructure in the locality.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Roadmap for Deployment of Modularized Hydrothermal Liquefaction: Understanding the Impacts of Industry Learning, Optimal Plant Scale, and Delivery Costs on Biofuel Pricing

Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) is a promising technology for converting abundant organic wastes into fuels. Previous techno-economic analyses (TEAs) of HTL have been used to estimate the minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of biofuel products, but these analyses often assume a bespoke plant design where each plant operates under unique process conditions and neglect transportation costs. However, transportation costs must be included in realistic TEAs, and further, a mass-produced fixed-scale modular plant design approach may be more effective than case-by-case plant design, provided that there is sufficient market capacity to benefit from modularization. This study estimates fuel price behavior in the presence of transportation costs and benefits stemming from modular plant design. This analysis indicates that a modular process capable of handling 60 dry tons per day (DTPD) is optimal, resulting in a ~25% reduction in MFSP (from $4.70/GGE, fully upgraded) at complete market feedstock utilization compared with case-by-case design. The associated cost reductions are attributable to learning benefits and modularization. Several HTL deployment “roadmaps” are then explored, with each roadmap consisting of different periods of case-by-case design followed by adoption of a modularized approach. A period of nonmodular industry growth up to market saturation of ~7% followed by implementation of modular plant design strikes a balance between the investment risk and learned cost reductions associated with modular plant design. However, if bespoke plants built during this period of nonmodular growth saturate more than 23% of available feedstock, learned cost reductions are significantly diminished. Here, this study points to the potential benefits of modularized and decentralized waste-to-energy processes when the modularization follows an optimal deployment strategy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Electrochemical Reduction Selectivity of Crotonaldehyde on Copper

Lignocellulosic waste is a potential feedstock for the generation of fuels and commodity chemicals, but existing conversion methods are too cost-intensive to be viable long-term solutions. Electrochemical reductions are promising for decentralized biomass valorization due to their modular scaling and capacity to run intermittently and without high temperatures or pressures. Using crotonaldehyde as a multi-functional model compound for the many partially unsaturated oxygenates found in processed biomass, we here demonstrate the production of butanal, butanol, butene, and butane (variously useful as commodity chemicals and major components of liquified petroleum gas) under ambient conditions by reductive bulk electrolysis with a copper mesh working electrode. We identify an optimum potential for reduced organic production under the reaction conditions and compare product distributions from reductions of intermediate species to further propose branching reaction pathways. Though butanal is typically the most abundant product from crotonaldehyde reduction, most of the butene and butane appear to result from a pathway involving initial reduction of the aldehyde group. We discuss evidence that selectivity is driven by interplay between crotonaldehyde reduction, local pH shifts due to the hydrogen evolution reaction, and changes in site reactivity and availability due to electrode fouling. This demonstration of model electrochemical biomass valorization also serves to inform further exploration into reduction of multi-functional molecules and electrochemical biomass processing in general.

biomass↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reduced LCoE CSP Through Utilizing Process Gas Lubricated Bearings in Oil-Free Drivetrains

The GE Research team proposed to advance the TRL level of process lubricated gas bearings from TRL3 based on the DE-EE0007109 program to TRL5 addressing a critical risk item that radial gas bearings can provide satisfactory rotordynamic performance in supporting a representative rotor for sCO2 Power Cycles. The ability to apply process lubricated gas bearings can provide cost savings with reduction of the associated lube oil systems and an efficiency benefit worth 2% efficiency for the turbomachinery configuration first presented in DE-EE005804. The process lubricated gas bearings are enablers for advanced hermetically sealed configurations that have the potential for significant advancement in sCO2 Power Cycles for CSP applications including the 2% efficiency increase referred to above in addition to OPEX savings with no need to refill the CO2 valued at 60k USD/yr and cost reductions of 50 USD/kWe all leading to a potential 0.95¢/kWh reduction positively impacting CSP goals.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Balancing renewable energy and river resources by moving from individual assessments of hydropower projects to energy system planning

As governments and non-state actors strive to minimize global warming, a primary strategy is the decarbonization of power systems which will require a massive increase in renewable electricity generation. Leading energy agencies forecast a doubling of global hydropower capacity as part of that necessary expansion of renewables. While hydropower provides generally low-carbon generation and can integrate variable renewables, such as wind and solar, into electrical grids, hydropower dams are one of the primary reasons that only one-third of the world’s major rivers remain free-flowing. This loss of free-flowing rivers has contributed to dramatic declines of migratory fish and sediment delivery to agriculturally productive deltas. Further, the reservoirs behind dams have displaced tens of millions of people. Thus, hydropower challenges the world’s efforts to meet climate targets while simultaneously achieving other Sustainable Development Goals. In this paper, we explore strategies to achieve the needed renewable energy expansion while sustaining the diverse social and environmental benefits of rivers. These strategies can be implemented at scales ranging from the individual project (environmental flows, fish passage and other site-level mitigation) to hydropower cascades to river basins and regional electrical power systems. While we review evidence that project-level management and mitigation can reduce environmental and social costs, we posit that the most effective scale for finding balanced solutions occurs at the scale of power systems. We further hypothesize that the pursuit of solutions at the system scale can also provide benefits for investors, developers and governments; evidence of benefits to these actors will be necessary for achieving broad uptake of the approaches described in this paper. We test this hypothesis through cases from Chile and Uganda that demonstrate the potential for system-scale power planning to allow countries to meet low-carbon energy targets with power systems that avoid damming high priority rivers (e.g., those that would cause conflicts with other social and environmental benefits) for a similar system cost as status quo approaches. We also show that, through reduction of risk and potential conflict, strategic planning of hydropower site selection can improve financial performance for investors and developers, with a case study from Colombia.

Opperman, Jeffrey J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Photovoltaic (PV) System Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) Evaluation with Grid Support Function Valuation and Service Lifetime Estimation

Photovoltaic (PV) systems play a critical role in renewable energy resource grid integration, and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) is commonly used to evaluate PV system feasibility in modern power grids. In this work, a revised PV system LCOE calculation model is derived to quantify the potential of LCOE reduction. Particularly, the grid support functions are valuated to offset the investment and operation costs of PV systems, which thereby reduces the LCOE. Meanwhile, PV system service lifetime is also estimated with the derived PV inverter reliability model, considering the critical components (i.e., semiconductor devices and capacitors). The case studies with field datasets are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the developed LCOE calculation model.

Zhao, Shijia↗