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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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The COP slide deck is used as a presentation to our community of practice industry board. The cost analysis slide deck is used as a discussion tool to develop the framework.
Poster presenting a new Duramat project that will develop a science-based definition of a "50-year solar panel" by combining reliability data, climate risks, design choices, and long-term cost analysis. The work aims to clarify what is needed to enable longer-lasting, high-value solar systems.
The expected rapid growth in electric vehicle deployment will inevitably be followed by a corresponding rise in the supply of end-of-life vehicles and their lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). The batteries may be reused, but will eventually be spent and provide a potential domestic resource that can help supply materials for future battery production. However, commercial recycling processes depend on profits from recovery of cobalt, use of which is being reduced in new cathode chemistries. The U.S. Department of Energy, therefore, established the ReCell Center in early 2019 to develop robust LIB recycling technology that would be economical even for batteries that contain no cobalt. The central feature of the technology is recovery of the cathode material with its unique crystalline cathode morphology intact in order to retain its value and functionality. Other materials are recovered as well in order to maximize revenues and minimize waste-handling costs. Analysis and modeling serve to evaluate and compare process options so that we can identify those that will be most economical while still minimizing energy use and environmental impacts. This paper provides background and describes highlights of the center’s first 2 years of operation.
Widespread use of diesel fuels in freight transportation leads to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that play an important role in air pollution. The air pollution, as well as the energy crisis, drives the transition from diesel fuel to cleaner and more energy-efficient fuels such as hydrogen fuels. With such a transition, the strategic planning and optimization of supporting refueling infrastructure along the national highway for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) become a necessity. Cost and service level are two essential factors to be considered in hydrogen refueling station location and capacity optimization. The service level in this study is assessed by the delay (waiting time) at fueling stations as well as the fueling demand fulfilled. To this end, this study presents a methodology to provide waiting time (delay) and levelized hydrogen fuel cost inputs under different station configurations (number of dispensers and fill rates) for hydrogen refueling station planning. Determining the station configurations based on the trade-off between the two inputs is further discussed. Particularly, this study points out that the levelized cost and waiting time are affected by hourly demand patterns and estimates the two inputs under different peak hour fueling demand scenarios. The results suggest that, with the same daily demand, the cost, as well as the waiting time, increases obviously with the peak hour demand. In the case study, the cost grows at least 30% when the peak hour visit frequency of the daily total visits increases from 5% (evenly distributed pattern) to 10% (the most common pattern for existing diesel fueling stations along I-75). Accounting for this peak hour effect in hydrogen refueling station planning is recommended. Overall, the waiting time model and cost analysis provide key inputs for optimizing hydrogen refueling station location and configurations based on anticipated refueling demand patterns. The paper is the second in a series that aims to build a comprehensive modeling plan and optimize hydrogen refueling infrastructure along the Interstate 75 (I-75) corridor for HDVs.
Heat pumps have a significant impact on the climate, and numerous studies exist discussing the environmental impact of heat pumps quantitatively. Life Cycle Climate Performance (LCCP) is a widely accepted metric and can evaluate the carbon footprint of heat pumps from cradle to grave. LCCP calculation typically requires inputs like annual energy consumption, the material used, refrigerant type, and charge level, which are usually the intermediate or final results from heat pump simulation tools. Thus, a platform linking the heat pump simulation software, local weather conditions, and LCCP evaluation tool can simplify the heat pump design process, especially for complicated systems. This paper presents an LCCP evaluation tool accessing the outputs from the DOE Heat Pump Design Model and the building loads and temperature bin data from AHRI standard 210/240. As for case studies, this paper investigates the LCCP values and life cycle electricity costs (LCEC) of a given cooling-based heat pump with R410A in five typical US cities. In conclusion, this cooling-based heat pump has the highest LCCP value at Chicago and lowest LCCP value at Seattle. In contrast, the heat pump has the highest LCEC at Seattle and the lowest LCEC at Miami. As a future work, a more comprehensive carbon emission and cost analysis of heat pump systems will be conducted through all major cities around the world.
A techno-economic analysis is underway examining the cost and performance of future large-scale photovoltaic (PV) plant components, including bifacial modules, tandem modules, increased plant voltage architectures, and module-level power electronics. Integration of these components into PV plant designs is compared with current PV technologies based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Baseline models are developed and validated against recorded PV plant performance data. Expected cost and performance data of future PV technologies are incorporated into the baseline models. An evolutionary algorithm is utilized to optimize PV plant configuration, technology combination, and LCOE. Furthermore, this paper focuses on the bifacial module analysis.
Advanced powertrain technologies, specifically fuel cell electric powertrains, have gained attention as viable alternatives for medium- and heavy-duty (M/HD) vehicles. However, it is unclear how these alternative powertrain vehicles stack up against their diesel counterparts in terms of performance and total cost of ownership (TCO). Furthermore, there are vehicle segments within the M/HD sector that have remained unstudied for fuel cell electric applications. This analysis aims to provide a comparative scoping-level TCO and performance analysis for two heavy-duty vocation vehicles (Class 8 U.S. port-side yard tractor and Class 8 U.S.-based refuse truck) for both conventional diesel and heavy-duty fuel cell electric (HDFC) powertrains. The refuse truck analysis also considered compressed natural gas powertrains (CNG) for comparison. The analysis includes seven timeframes (2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, and 2050) for comparison. This simplified TCO analysis includes only direct costs (fuel price, glider purchase price, and operating & maintenance costs) and excludes any associated indirect cost (e.g., dwell time costs and other opportunity based costs). Representative drive cycles for each vehicle were based on on-board GPS logged data and chosen by the analysis team to represent average, non-extreme driving conditions. At the time the analysis was performed, the Inflation Reduction Act was not in effect and therefore any potential subsidies and future cost reductions enacted under the Inflation Reduction Act were not included. Based on the operational setpoints used in this analysis, HDFC powertrains for both yard tractors and refuse trucks have the potential to achieve TCO advantages over conventional diesel powertrains (and CNG for refuse truck applications) in the near- to mid-term future while meeting the necessary duty cycle performance requirements. Yard tractors and refuse trucks spend a significant amount of time operating at low speeds, with long durations of idling, and experience numerous start/stop occurrences. These operational characteristics favor fuel cell performance as fuel cells operate with higher efficiencies at lower percentages of total power output. Conversely, conventional diesel and CNG engines are most efficient at higher percentages of total power output. This helps HDFC powered yard tractors and refuse trucks realize improved fuel economy when compared to their diesel counterparts, which helps reduce total fuel costs and therefore, total TCO. The analysis demonstrates that fuel prices play a significant role in determining TCO for each vehicle and should remain an R&D focus area. Overall, under the analysis' specified conditions, HDFC yard tractors have the potential to achieve cost parity with diesel yard tractors as early as 2025. For refuse trucks, HDFC refuse trucks have the potential to achieve cost parity with diesel and CNG refuse trucks in 2030 and 2040, respectively.
Efficient integration of renewable energy sources (RES) - such as wind, solar, geothermal, tidal, and wave - into the electric power grids can help improve energy security and contribute toward a sustainable energy future. To date, however, electric power grids are critically dependent on conventional sources, such as fossil fuels. Given the increasing penetration of RES and dynamic loads, there is a need to thoroughly reanalyze the performance of power grids in terms of cost, efficiency, and energy security. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis in terms of energy costs and emissions estimates of dynamic power grids incorporating various power-generating sources.
This work evaluates ammonia as a potential marine fuel for a SUEZMAX tanker and compares it with methanol, liquefied natural gas, and conventional fuel oils. The motivation arises from the need to identify low-emission, cost-competitive fuel options that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions from international shipping. The central hypothesis is that ammonia produced from renewable energy sources can achieve lower well-to-wake greenhouse gas emissions with varying life cycle costs based on the region. Life cycle assessment and techno-economic analysis were performed for a thirty-year vessel lifetime on two representative trade routes: from Saudi Arabia to Japan and from Saudi Arabia to the Netherlands. Four ammonia production pathways were assessed: natural gas, natural gas with carbon capture, natural gas pyrolysis, and renewable electricity–based synthesis. Results show that wind-based ammonia produced in Saudi Arabia achieved the lowest life cycle well-to-wake greenhouse gas emissions, between 0.58 and 0.64 million metric tons, among all fuels when using regional grid process electricity. With renewable process electricity, ammonia produced from natural gas pyrolysis in Saudi Arabia showed comparable emissions of 0.37 to 0.44 million metric tons with wind-based ammonia of 0.37 to 0.43 million metric tons. Liquefied natural gas exhibited the lowest life cycle cost, between 402 and 412 million United States dollars, and the only negative carbon abatement cost, ranging from −277 to –322 United States dollars per metric ton of greenhouse gas, compared with high sulfur fuel oil. The findings indicate that renewable ammonia offers a promising long-term pathway for reducing shipping emissions, while liquefied natural gas remains the most cost-effective option in the near term.
District energy systems supplied by geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) have been deployed across the United States for both heating and cooling end uses. To better understand their performance and potential, the geothermal research team at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory analyzed cost and performance of five existing GHP-based district energy systems in the United States. The five systems selected are Ball State University in Indiana, Colorado Mesa University in Colorado, Miami University in Ohio, West Union in Iowa, and Whisper Valley in Texas. The necessary information, including district size, operation period, GHP performance, and costs, was collected through literature review and interviews. The survey results indicated the five systems studied consist of geothermal borehole field(s) and ground loop(s) connected to central loop. While the GHPs were in central plants at Ball State University and Miami University, the central loops at Colorado Mesa University, West Wood, and Whisper Valley were connected through service lines to individual heat pumps in each building. Our analysis indicates the systems have been operating reliably and cost-effectively and contributed to a reduction in carbon emissions.
Standard life cycle techniques such as life cycle warranty cost (LCWC) analysis and life cycle analysis (LCA) are used to respectively quantify the relative economical and environmental advantages of remanufactured goods while simultaneously identifying avenues for improvement. In this paper, we contribute to the literature on life cycle studies by incorporating reliability into LCWC analysis and LCA with the goal of improving long-term/multiple life cycle decision making. We develop a branched power-law model to incorporate the physical degradation mechanisms leading to reduced reuse rates of system parts over multiple life cycles. We then follow a standard LCA protocol to quantify the difference between a new unit and its remanufactured version in terms of environmental impact items such as abiotic depletion potential, global warming potential, and energy consumption. We then devise four practical warranty policies that vary in the choice of replacement and/or provision for extended warranty. All possible replacement scenarios for multiple life cycles are explored for each policy and a mathematically rigorous framework is provided, where the reliability information is used to calculate probabilistic LCWC and life cycle impact items. This reliability-informed LCWC analysis and LCA framework enables design engineers to compare design options and warranty policies by quantifying both economical and environmental impacts to aid in decision making. Although the framework is presented in a general form applicable to any engineered system, we demonstrate the utility of this framework by using a case study of an infinitely variable transmission used in agricultural equipment.
Future components to enhance the basic, native security of 5G networks are either complex mechanisms whose impact in the requiring 5G communications are not considered, or lightweight solutions adapted to ultra-reliable low-latency communications (URLLC) but whose security properties remain under discussion. Although different 5G network slices may have different requirements, in general, both visions seem to fall short at provisioning secure URLLC in the future. In this work we address this challenge, by introducing cost-security functions as a method to evaluate the performance and adequacy of most developed and employed non-native enhanced security mechanisms in 5G networks. We categorize those new security components into different groups according to their purpose and deployment scope. We propose to analyze them in the context of existing 5G architectures using two different approaches. First, using model checking techniques, we will evaluate the probability of an attacker to be successful against each security solution. Second, using analytical models, we will analyze the impact of these security mechanisms in terms of delay, throughput consumption, and reliability. Finally, we will combine both approaches using stochastic cost-security functions and the PRISM model checker to create a global picture. Our results are first evidence of how a 5G network that covers and strengthened all security areas through enhanced, dedicated non-native mechanisms could only guarantee secure URLLC with a probability of ~55%.
Iron and steel manufacturing is the largest contributor to CO 2 emissions among heavy industries worldwide. This is mostly due to the use of coal in blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) process for virgin (primary) steel production. The electricity generation mix used in the electric arc furnace (EAF) process to recycle scrap steel also contributes to the CO 2 emission associated with secondary steel production. To decarbonize iron and steel sector, we investigated decarbonization options for BF-BOF and EAF processes, including energy efficiency, carbon capture and storage, and the use of clean energy sources, in various BF-BOF and EAF process configurations. Additionally, for each decarbonization approach, we evaluated the CO 2 reduction potential via life cycle analysis (LCA) and estimated the associated cost through techno-economic analysis (TEA). A typical U.S. BF-BOF for virgin steel production has a cradle-to-gate (CTG) CO 2 emissions of 1,990 kg/MT steel with a levelized cost of steel (LCOS) of $\$439$/MT steel, while a typical U.S. EAF process for secondary steel production in the United States has a CTG CO 2 emissions of 270 kg/MT steel with a LCOS of $\$365$/MT steel. Combining renewable energy sources and carbon capture, BF-BOF CTG CO 2 emissions can be reduced to 16 kg/MT steel, and EAF configurations can achieve similar deep reductions to reach 25 kg/MT steel. The corresponding LCOS with these decarbonization levels is estimated to increase to $\$542$/MT steel and $\$348$/MT steel, respectively. The estimated CO 2 avoidance costs vary from -$\$90$/MT CO 2 to $\$646$/MT CO 2 , depending on the various decarbonization technologies and energy prices.
The American-Made Solar Prize is a prize competition from the U.S. Department of Energy that is designed to revitalize U.S. solar manufacturing. The competition aims to support the growth of U.S. solar manufacturing and reenergize American energy innovation by tapping into American's competitive spirit and the nation's unparalleled innovation ecosystem leveraging national labs, incubators, facilities and more. National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) will provide technical and business advisement to the noted Solar Prize finalists. This CRADA will involve the development of a cost model of the CRADA Participant's horizontal ribbon growth (HRG) technology for making silicon wafers for solar cells.
Results of a high level cost-benefit analysis using HOMER Pro software are presented for Providencia Island, Colombia. The analysis focuses on integrating solar photovoltaics (PV) and a battery energy storage system (BESS) into an existing diesel-only remote power system. The analysis uses fuel costs and discount rates provided by the stakeholders and NREL-derived capital cost estimates.
The purpose of the baseline study is to evaluate the degree to which current industry planning processes meet the national 2035 decarbonization goals for the Western Interconnection. This analysis serves as a comparative baseline for the scenario analysis conducted in the NTP Study using a Western Interconnection dataset that is readily available to industry. This baseline analysis differs from the production cost modeling analysis and power flow analysis in the main NTP Study report (forthcoming). In particular, the analysis presented in this report reflects a business-as-usual future with an optimistic build out of specific planned transmission projects and foreseeable generation. In contrast, the NTP Study models a future generation and transmission expansion based on optimization from a capacity expansion model. The analysis presented herein also reflects a 2030 timeframe, whereas the main NTP Study production cost modeling analysis and power flow analysis reflect a 2035 time frame. This baseline analysis utilizes industry’s most reliable data to account for future transmission projects across various stages of development, with a particular focus on those in the permitting stage. Additionally, it incorporates projections for changes in generation capacity (both additions and retirements). This baseline analysis outlines a probable trajectory, given current process and practice, for the future of the bulk power system with a horizon extending to 2030.
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