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At least 199 records · Page 11

An analysis of cost overruns on defense acquisition contracts

This article examines the history of cost overruns reported on 64 completed defense contracts. Its purpose is to formally test the observation of the Under Secretary. Results confirm the observation at the 95 percent level of confidence, and were generally insensitive to the contract type (price, cost), the contract phase (development, production), the type of weapon system (air, ground, sea), and the armed forces service (Air Force, Army, Navy) that managed the contract. After a review of terminology, concepts, and related research for those unfamiliar with the area, the methodology, results, and managerial implications are described.

Christensen, David S.↗

ORION Low Cost Laser Analysis

We show that laser-target interaction physics demands the shortest laser pulse of which hardware is capable (but not less than 100 ps) in the ORION ground-based laser concept. We compare two leading ways to achieve such pulses - SRS/SBS cascade compression and grating compression - with the standard MOPA approach, and conclude that the first of these is most robust. However, the state of the art in laser devices will require a year or two to implement these ideas. We present a pulse format and beam footprint protocol which will solve the conflict between relativistic lookahead and beam tilt and should permit all-laser active acquisition and tracking in ORION.

Phipps, Claude R.↗

Enhancing Nasa Sounding Rocket Capabilities Through Composite Material Adoption

Sounding rockets are a suborbital research platform employed by NASA for heliophysics, astrophysics, and geospace science investigations, and for technology development. They follow semi-parabolic trajectories and are launched using surplus military, and commercial, solid-propellant rocket motors. NASA sounding rocket payloads are comprised of standard, modular subassemblies, designed to perform specific functions critical to achieving mission success criteria. Since the program’s inception, payload length and mass have trended upwards, limiting the capability of the platform to reach exospheric apogees and decreasing the time above critical altitudes to observe solar and celestial targets. To offset this trend, composite materials may be of use in payload and subsystem design to decrease payload mass. This investigation seeks to understand if there is a practical benefit to introducing composite materials on the NSRP by assessing mission specific impacts to those missions conducted in fiscal year 2024. To accurately estimate the mass of a composites-based payload, a standard subsystem (NIACS) underwent structural reconfiguration. Materials were selected that align with NSRP design, manufacturing, and testing standards. NIACS reconfiguration resulted in a mass reduction of 19.6% which was then applied to the payload system in entirety. Using vehicle performance carpet plots, delta apogee and time above the Kármán line were determined. Performance improvements were then evaluated against that mission’s success criteria to determine if that mission would have benefitted from using composite materials. On average, each mission would have gained 59.8 kilometers apogee and 62.9 seconds above the Kármán line. However, only nine of the seventeen missions would have benefitted from these performance improvements. Two of the missions could have used a lower-impulse launch vehicle to achieve mission success. Upleg stability met programmatic criteria; downleg instability and dynamic pressure improved, showing that ballast would not offset the mass reduction of using composite materials. Cost analysis showed that production costs will increase 39%. For the two missions that could have used a lower-impulse launch vehicle, the cost of the launch vehicle would have offset payload production costs. In summary, composite materials are not recommended for universal use on NASA sounding rocket payloads due to unclear programmatic benefits and added cost. However, they are justified for optical astrophysics and heliophysics missions, high-apogee (exosphere) requirements, or when they reduce payload costs versus higher impulse launch vehicles. Reflown, recoverable subsystems should use composites to enhance apogee and observation time.

Robert Henry Burth↗

System technology analysis of aeroassisted orbital transfer vehicles: Moderate lift/drag (0.75-1.5). Volume 3: Cost estimates and work breakdown structure/dictionary, phase 1 and 2

Technology payoffs of representative ground based (Phase 1) and space based (Phase 2) mid lift/drag ratio aeroassisted orbit transfer vehicles (AOTV) were assessed and prioritized. A narrative summary of the cost estimates and work breakdown structure/dictionary for both study phases is presented. Costs were estimated using the Grumman Space Programs Algorithm for Cost Estimating (SPACE) computer program and results are given for four AOTV configurations. The work breakdown structure follows the standard of the joint government/industry Space Systems Cost Analysis Group (SSCAG). A table is provided which shows cost estimates for each work breakdown structure element.

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Improving The Discipline of Cost Estimation and Analysis

The need to improve the quality and accuracy of cost estimates of proposed new aerospace systems has been widely recognized. The industry has done the best job of maintaining related capability with improvements in estimation methods and giving appropriate priority to the hiring and training of qualified analysts. Some parts of Government, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in particular, continue to need major improvements in this area. Recently, NASA recognized that its cost estimation and analysis capabilities had eroded to the point that the ability to provide timely, reliable estimates was impacting the confidence in planning many program activities. As a result, this year the Agency established a lead role for cost estimation and analysis. The Independent Program Assessment Office located at the Langley Research Center was given this responsibility. This paper presents the plans for the newly established role. Described is how the Independent Program Assessment Office, working with all NASA Centers, NASA Headquarters, other Government agencies, and industry, is focused on creating cost estimation and analysis as a professional discipline that will be recognized equally with the technical disciplines needed to design new space and aeronautics activities. Investments in selected, new analysis tools, creating advanced training opportunities for analysts, and developing career paths for future analysts engaged in the discipline are all elements of the plan. Plans also include increasing the human resources available to conduct independent cost analysis of Agency programs during their formulation, to improve near-term capability to conduct economic cost-benefit assessments, to support NASA management's decision process, and to provide cost analysis results emphasizing "full-cost" and "full-life cycle" considerations. The Agency cost analysis improvement plan has been approved for implementation starting this calendar year. Adequate financial and human resources are being made available to accomplish the goals of this important effort, and all indications are that NASA's cost estimation and analysis core competencies will be substantially improved within the foreseeable future.

Piland, William M.↗

Space construction system analysis. Part 2: Cost and programmatics

Cost and programmatic elements of the space construction systems analysis study are discussed. The programmatic aspects of the ETVP program define a comprehensive plan for the development of a space platform, the construction system, and the space shuttle operations/logistics requirements. The cost analysis identified significant items of cost on ETVP development, ground, and flight segments, and detailed the items of space construction equipment and operations.

Vonflue, F. W.↗

The space station assembly phase: Flight telerobotic servicer feasibility. Volume 2: Methodology and case study

A methodology is described for examining the feasibility of a Flight Telerobotic Servicer (FTS) using two assembly scenarios, defined at the EVA task level, for the 30 shuttle flights (beginning with MB-1) over a four-year period. Performing all EVA tasks by crew only is compared to a scenario in which crew EVA is augmented by FTS. A reference FTS concept is used as a technology baseline and life-cycle cost analysis is performed to highlight cost tradeoffs. The methodology, procedure, and data used to complete the analysis are documented in detail.

Smith, Jeffrey H.↗

The Ninevah Mission: A design summary for an unmanned mission to Venus, volume 1

The design summary for an unmanned mission to the planet Venus, with code name Ninevah, is presented. The design includes a Hohmann transfer trajectory analysis, propulsion trade study, an overview of the communication and instrumentation systems, power requirements, probe and lander analysis, and a weight and cost analysis.

Source record↗

MINOTAUR (Maryland's innovative orbital technologically advanced University rocket)

Over the past decade, there has been an increasing interest in designing small commercial launch vehicles. Some of these designs include OSC's Pegasus, and AMROC's Aquila. Even though these vehicles are very different in their overall design characteristics, they all share a common thread of being expensive to design and manufacture. Each of these vehicles has an estimated production and operations cost of over $15000/kg of payload. In response to this high cost factor, the University of Maryland is developing a cost-effective alternative launch vehicle, Maryland's Innovative Orbital Technologically Advanced University Rocket (MINOTAUR). A preliminary cost analysis projects that MINOTAUR will cost under $10000/kg of payload. MINOTAUR will also serve as an enriching project devoted to an entirely student-designed-and-developed launch vehicle. This preliminary design of MINOTAUR was developed entirely by undergraduates in the University of Maryland's Space Vehicle Design class. At the start of the project, certain requirements and priorities were established as a basis from which to begin the design phase: (1) carry a 100 kg payload into a 200 km circular orbit; (2) provide maximum student involvement in the design, manufacturing, and launch phases of the project; and (3) use hybrid propulsion throughout. The following is the list of the project's design priorities (from highest to lowest): (1) safety, (2) cost, (3) minimum development time, (4) maximum use of the off-the-shelf components, (5) performance, and (6) minimum use of pyrotechnics.

Lewis, Mark J.↗

A 20 Year Lifecycle Study for Launch Facilities at the Kennedy Space Center

The lifecycle cost analysis was based on corrosion costs for the Kennedy Space Center's Launch Complexes and Mobile Launch Platforms. The first step in the study involved identifying the relevant assets that would be included. Secondly, the identification and collection of the corrosion control cost data for the selected assets was completed. Corrosion control costs were separated into four categories. The sources of cost included the NASA labor for civil servant personnel directly involved in overseeing and managing corrosion control of the assets, United Space Alliance (USA) contractual requirements for performing planned corrosion control tasks, USA performance of unplanned corrosion control tasks, and Testing and Development. Corrosion control operations performed under USA contractual requirements were the most significant contributors to the total cost of corrosion. The operations include the inspection of the pad, routine maintenance of the pad, medium and large scale blasting and repainting activities, and the repair and replacement of structural metal elements. Cost data was collected from the years between 2001 and 2007. These costs were then extrapolated to future years to calculate the 20 year lifecycle costs.

Kolody, Mark R.↗

The Flight Optimization System Weights Estimation Method

FLOPS has been the primary aircraft synthesis software used by the Aeronautics Systems Analysis Branch at NASA Langley Research Center. It was created for rapid conceptual aircraft design and advanced technology impact assessments. FLOPS is a single computer program that includes weights estimation, aerodynamics estimation, engine cycle analysis, propulsion data scaling and interpolation, detailed mission performance analysis, takeoff and landing performance analysis, noise footprint estimation, and cost analysis. It is well known as a baseline and common denominator for aircraft design studies. FLOPS is capable of calibrating a model to known aircraft data, making it useful for new aircraft and modifications to existing aircraft. The weight estimation method in FLOPS is known to be of high fidelity for conventional tube with wing aircraft and a substantial amount of effort went into its development. This report serves as a comprehensive documentation of the FLOPS weight estimation method. The development process is presented with the weight estimation process.

Wells, Douglas P.↗

Process Feasibility Study in Support of Silicon Material Task 1

Analysis of process system properties was continued for silicon source materials under consideration for producing silicon. The following property data are reported for dichlorosilane which is involved in processing operations for silicon: critical constants, vapor pressure, heat of vaporization, heat capacity, density, surface tension, thermal conductivity, heat of formation and Gibb's free energy of formation. The properties are reported as a function of temperature to permit rapid engineering usage. The preliminary economic analysis of the process is described. Cost analysis results for the process (case A-two deposition reactors and six electrolysis cells) are presented based on a preliminary process design of a plant to produce 1,000 metric tons/year of silicon. Fixed capital investment estimate for the plant is $12.47 million (1975 dollars) ($17.47 million, 1980 dollars). Product cost without profit is 8.63 $/kg of silicon (1975 dollars)(12.1 $/kg, 1980 dollars).

Li, K. Y.↗

Study of low-cost fabrication methods for aerospace composite materials

Flat and hat section specimens of graphite/epoxy composite materials have been fabricated by the resin bath or wet pultrusion process. This demonstrated the feasibility of incorporating crossplied graphite fiber reinforcements in conjunction with epoxy resin systems in the wet pultrusion process. However, the thickness constraints of the pultrusion process, the lack of dimensional stability of the crossply materials and equipment limitations affect the quality of the hat section pultrusions. The wet pultrusion process shows promise of being a low cost method for producing composite parts with constant cross section along the length. A cost analysis showed at least 80 percent cost reduction for the hat section and 40 percent for flat panel by pultrusion over the conventional manual and automated lay-up.

Chung, H. H.↗

Satellite Power System (SPS) concept definition study (exhibit C)

The major outputs of the study are the constructability studies which resulted in the definition of the concepts for satellite, rectenna, and satellite construction base construction. Transportation analyses resulted in definition of heavy-lift launch vehicle, electric orbit transfer vehicle, personnel orbit transfer vehicle, and intra-orbit transfer vehicle as well as overall operations related to transportation systems. The experiment/verification program definition resulted in the definition of elements for the Ground-Based Experimental Research and Key Technology plans. These studies also resulted in conceptual approaches for early space technology verification. The cost analysis defined the overall program and cost data for all program elements and phases.

Haley, G. M.↗

Placing dynamic sensors and actuators on flexible space structures

Input/Output Cost Analysis involves decompositions of the quadratic cost function into contributions from each stochastic input and each weighted output. In the past, these suboptimal cost decomposition methods of sensor and actuator selection (SAS) have been used to locate perfect (infinite bandwidth) sensor and actuators on large scale systems. This paper extends these ideas to the more practical case of imperfect actuators and sensors with dynamics of their own. NASA's SCOLE examples demonstrate that sensor and actuator dynamics affect the optimal selection and placement of sensors and actuators.

Norris, Gregory A.↗