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At least 199 records · Page 11

Closed-Loop Pumped Storage Hydropower Resource Assessment for the United States. Final Report on HydroWIRES Project D1: Improving Hydropower and PSH Representations in Capacity Expansion Models

Pumped storage hydropower represents the bulk of the United States' current energy storage capacity: 23 gigawatts (GW) of the 24-GW national total (Denholm et al. 2021). This capacity was largely built between 1960 and 1990. PSH is a mature and proven method of energy storage with competitive round-trip efficiency and long life spans. These qualities make PSH a very attractive potential solution to energy storage needs, particularly for longer-duration storage (8 hours or more); such storage will be crucial to bridge gaps in electricity production as variable wind and solar production continue to comprise an ever-larger portion of the United States' energy portfolio (Cole et al. 2021; Frazier et al. 2021). However, it is unclear how much potential the United States has for the development of new PSH. No new large PSH has been constructed in the United States since the 1990s, and attempts to quantify technical potential capacity from PSH project applications to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) suffer from inconsistent site and cost evaluation methodologies and likely are not representative of all PSH opportunities. This study seeks to better under understand the technical potential for PSH development in the United States by developing a national-scale resource assessment for closed-loop PSH. Individual sites are not modeled in sufficient detail for project-level development, but they do provide valuable insights into potential resource areas across the United States, including the ability to provide estimates for a range of long-term development scenarios.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Closed Loop Pumped Storage Hydropower Resource Assessment of the United States

The data includes a geospatial and spreadsheet representation of a resource analysis for closed loop pumped storage systems across the Continental United States, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico. The data includes energy storage potential, water volume, distance from source to storage, hydraulic head, dollars per kilowatt of storage, and transmission spurline cost for each pumped storage hydropower (PHS) reservoir. Each reservoir represented in this dataset is represented on potential 10 hour storage duration PSH system comprised of two reservoirs. Units of measure are laid out in the dataset. Pumped storage hydropower (PSH) represents the bulk of the United States' current energy storage capacity: 23 gigawatts (GW) of the 24 GW national total (Denholm et al. 2021). This capacity was largely built between 1960 and 1990. PSH is a mature and proven method of energy storage with competitive round-trip efficiency and long life spans. These qualities make PSH a very attractive potential solution to energy storage needs, particularly for longer-duration storage (8 hours or more); such storage will be crucial to bridge gaps in electricity production as variable wind and solar production continue to comprise an ever-larger portion of the United States' energy portfolio. This study seeks to better understand the technical potential for PSH development in the United States by developing a national-scale resource assessment for closed-loop PSH. For more information, please refer to the Closed Loop Pumped Storage Hydropower Resource Assessment for the United States linked in the resources.

Array↗

Tunable White Light for Elders (TWLITE): A Protocol Demonstrating Feasibility and Acceptability for Deployment, Remote Data Collection, and Analysis of a Home-Based Lighting Intervention in Older Adults

Sleep disturbances are common in older adults and may contribute to disease progression in certain populations (e.g., Alzheimer’s disease). Light therapy is a simple and cost-effective intervention to improve sleep. Primary barriers to light therapy are: (1) poor acceptability of the use of devices, and (2) inflexibility of current devices to deliver beyond a fixed light spectrum and throughout the entirety of the day. However, dynamic, tunable lighting integrated into the native home lighting system can potentially overcome these limitations. Herein, we describe our protocol to implement a whole-home tunable lighting system installed throughout the homes of healthy older adults already enrolled in an existing study with embedded home assessment platforms (Oregon Center for Aging & Technology—ORCATECH). Within ORCATECH, continuous data on room location, activity, sleep, and general health parameters are collected at a minute-to-minute resolution over years of participation. This single-arm longitudinal protocol collected participants’ light usage in addition to ORCATECH outcome measures over a several month period before and after light installation. The protocol was implemented with four subjects living in three ORCATECH homes. Technical/usability challenges and feasibility/acceptability outcomes were explored. The successful implementation of our protocol supports the feasibility of implementing and integrating tunable whole-home lighting systems into an automated home-based assessment platform for continuous data collection of outcome variables, including long-term sleep measures. Challenges and iterative approaches are discussed. This protocol will inform the implementation of future clinical intervention trials using light therapy in patients at risk for developing Alzheimer’s disease and related conditions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Continuous-Time Models for Longitudinal Data

This software is used to estimate a probabilistic continuous-time model from data. The models capture nonlinear associations between variables that change over time. They can be used to infer future values of variables. These tools were used in the manuscript entitled "Continuous-Time Probabilistic Models for Longitudinal Electronic Health Records."

Kaplan, AlanD↗

Managing Solar Photovoltaic Integration in the Western United States: Power System Flexibility Requirements and Supply

As penetrations of variable renewable energy generation technologies such as wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) continue to increase across the United States, greater uncertainty and variability in the net load often lead to a concern about how power systems may adapt. Managing the system net load (i.e., load minus contribution from variable generation technologies) may become more challenging with increasing variable generation, as the magnitude and frequency of net ramps increase. However, there is inherent flexibility in power systems through the conventional generator fleet (under least-cost unit commitment and economic dispatch), less-conventional generation sources (e.g., storage, demand response, concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage), and imports and exports with neighbors. In this analysis, we create an open-source tool to analyze the flexibility of the results of a specific commercial unit commitment and economic dispatch tool (PLEXOS), but the code can be applied generically as well. The tool assesses the flexibility requirements (or demand) of a system through a net load analysis. The constraints and limitations of each generator are then considered to determine the availability (or supply) of flexibility. Then, the supply and demand of flexibility are compared to gain a more complete picture of potential flexibility concerns. We apply this open-source tool to high-penetration PV scenarios constructed for three focus regions in the western United States defined using the Resource Planning Model (RPM) capacity expansion modeling tool: RPM-OR, RPM-CO, and RPM-AZ. Generally, we find few flexibility concerns, as the western United States represents a large and interconnected power system with significant inherent flexibility. In addition, the PV scenarios we analyzed are overbuilt on capacity, leaving plenty of ramping ability on the system. We do find that for each focus region, the impact of imports on meeting ramping needs is essential. This means the PV integration in each focus region impacts the entire rest of the system. Each system has different dominant sources of flexibility. The conventional generator fleet (especially coal and gas combined-cycle technologies) as well as less-conventional sources such as storage are all shown to be important sources of flexibility. The scenarios evaluated here were designed to study the planning and operations impact of high solar penetration in each of three focus regions. However, none of the three focus regions likely will deploy PV in isolation, meaning the ability of imports and exports to provide flexibility may be considerably different in scenarios with strong PV deployment in every region. Overall, we intend that the framework we present here will be useful in future analysis of other system evolutions to identify whether and how flexibility may constrain the successful deployment of variable generation technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A high accuracy/resolution spectral element/Fourier–Galerkin method for the simulation of shoaling non-linear internal waves and turbulence in long domains with variable bathymetry

A high-order hybrid continuous-Galerkin numerical method, designed for the simulation of non-linear, non -hydrostatic internal waves and turbulence in long computational domains with complex bathymetry, is presented. The spatial discretization in the non-periodic wave-propagating directions, utilizes the nodal spectral element method. Such a high-order element-based discretization allows the highly accurate representation of complex domain geometry along with the flexibility of concentrating resolution in areas of interest. Under the assumption of the normal-to-isobath propagation of non-linear internal waves, a third periodic direction is incorporated via a Fourier-Galerkin discretization. The distinct non-hydrostatic nature of non-linear internal waves and, any instabilities and turbulence therein, necessitates the numerically challenging solution of the pressure Poisson problem. A defining feature of this work is the application of a domain decomposition approach, combined with block-Jacobi/deflation-based preconditioning to the pressure Poisson problem. Such a combined approach is particularly suitable for the long high aspect-ratio complex domains of interest and enables the efficient high-accuracy reproduction of the non-hydrostatic dynamics of non-linear internal waves. Implementation details are also described in the context of the stability of the solver and its parallelization strategy. A series of benchmarks of increasing complexity demonstrate the robustness of the flow solver. The benchmarks culminate with the three-dimensional simulation of a convectively breaking mode-one non-linear internal wave over a realistic South-China-Sea bathymetric transect and background current/stratification profiles.

Deflation↗

Spatiotemporal Variability of Electric System Reliability Metrics

As urbanization continues to grow, urban density also rises, placing significant stress on critical infrastructure. Cities often face challenges in investing in new infrastructure or upgrading existing ones. One area of infrastructure that has come under strain is the electric grid, leading to prolonged power outages. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the average duration of power outages has steadily doubled from 2013 to 2021, primarily due to extreme weather events. The IEEE has developed a series of reliability metrics to assess the reliability of the electric system. However, these metrics are only applied at the utility level, making it challenging to comprehend the variations in these indices at finer spatial resolutions and, consequently, evaluate reliability at the non-utility level. In this study, we leveraged electric outage data collected at 15-minute intervals at the county level to estimate electric system reliability over a six-year period using a novel data analysis approach. Our findings reveal a gradual decline in reliability in the U.S. Southwest compared to national averages. Furthermore, the duration of outages per customer per event has significantly decreased in large portions of California and Florida. These discoveries can be valuable for utility companies as they seek to pinpoint regional anomalies and plan for prioritized remediation efforts.

Singh, Nagendra↗

Discrete versus continuous: Enhancing battery optimization in capacity expansion models

This study compares two battery modeling approaches for capacity expansion models: discrete-duration and continuous-duration formulations. In the discrete approach, battery duration is fixed, and power capacity is optimized. In the continuous approach, both power and energy capacities are decision variables, allowing storage duration to be optimized endogenously. Although both discrete-duration and continuous-duration battery formulations are used in long-term power system planning models, the literature has provided limited direct, systematic comparisons of their implications within a common modeling framework. To address this gap, this study implements both approaches in the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS TM ) capacity expansion model using two resource adequacy methods, across a range of future system conditions, and with varying battery cost projections. Results show continuous-duration and high-resolution discrete approaches produce similar capacity expansion outcomes. The continuous formulation achieves faster runtimes compared to discrete-duration runs with many discrete-duration options. However, the discrete-duration approach allows users to choose to have limited fidelity for storage duration options, which in some cases can outperform the continuous formulation. The continuous formulation has the lowest overall system costs, indicating its ability to fine-tune storage duration to better meet specific system needs. This study's findings provide a side-by-side evaluation of discrete and continuous battery modeling approaches and offer guidance for improving the representation of real-world systems, flexibility, and computational efficiency for representing energy storage in long-term power system planning models.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

General relativistic MHD simulations of non-thermal flaring in Sagittarius A*

Sgr A* exhibits regular variability in its multiwavelength emission, including daily X-ray flares and roughly continuous near-infrared (NIR) flickering. The origin of this variability is still ambiguous since both inverse Compton and synchrotron emission are possible radiative mechanisms. The underlying particle distributions are also not well constrained, particularly the non-thermal contribution. In this work, we employ the GPU-accelerated general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics code H-AMR to perform a study of flare flux distributions, including the effect of particle acceleration for the first time in high-resolution 3D simulations of Sgr A*. For the particle acceleration, we use the general relativistic ray-tracing code bhoss to perform the radiative transfer, assuming a hybrid thermal+non-thermal electron energy distribution. We extract ~60 h light curves in the sub-millimetre, NIR and X-ray wavebands, and compare the power spectra and the cumulative flux distributions of the light curves to statistical descriptions for Sgr A* flares. Our results indicate that non-thermal populations of electrons arising from turbulence-driven reconnection in weakly magnetized accretion flows lead to moderate NIR and X-ray flares and reasonably describe the X-ray flux distribution while fulfilling multiwavelength flux constraints. These models exhibit high rms per cent amplitudes, $\gtrsim 150{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ both in the NIR and the X-rays, with changes in the accretion rate driving the 230 GHz flux variability, in agreement with Sgr A* observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Effect of Moisture and Feedstock Variability on the Rheological Behavior of Corn Stover Particles

Continuous feeding, processing, and handling of biomass powders is pivotal to the economic viability of integrated biorefineries. However, current challenges associated with the operational reliability of bulk solids handling and transport greatly impact the process economics and ultimately the widespread commercialization of integrated biorefineries. In this work, we examine the effect of moisture and feedstock variability on the flow behavior of corn stover biomass particles. The total flow energy, compressibility, shear properties, and wall friction angles were measured for corn stover samples A and B containing 0%, 15%, 25%, 50%, and 75% (mass fraction) moisture contents using a FT4 powder rheometer. In general, the flowability of both A and B was reduced when moisture was present as indicated by the stability and variable flow rate, compressibility, and shear tests. The 15% moisture sample had the highest flow energy, revealing the interplay between the increased surface tension and looser packing both of which were caused by liquid bridging. The 75% moisture sample had the highest compressibility and the lowest flowability factor (ff c ). The trend in wall friction angle was found to be dependent upon the surface hydrophobicity of the wall material. The wall friction angle on the hydrophilic, stainless-steel surface increased with moisture and therefore poses additional handling challenges. On the other hand, the wall friction angle on the hydrophobic polymer surfaces were the lowest for samples with intermediate moisture contents. Sample B had greater bulk density, smaller compressibility, and greater flowability than the sample A , as suggested by the compressibility and shear tests. The wall friction angle of sample B was higher than or equal to that of sample A depending on both the type and the surface roughness of the wall material.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Strategies for Continuous Balancing in Future Power Systems with High Wind and Solar Shares

The use of wind power has grown strongly in recent years and is expected to continue to increase in the coming decades. Solar power is also expected to increase significantly. In a power system, a continuous balance is maintained between total production and demand. This balancing is currently mainly managed with conventional power plants, but with larger amounts of wind and solar power, other sources will also be needed. Interesting possibilities include continuous control of wind and solar power, battery storage, electric vehicles, hydrogen production, and other demand resources with flexibility potential. The aim of this article is to describe and compare the different challenges and future possibilities in six systems concerning how to keep a continuous balance in the future with significantly larger amounts of variable renewable power production. A realistic understanding of how these systems plan to handle continuous balancing is central to effectively develop a carbon-dioxide-free electricity system of the future. The systems included in the overview are the Nordic synchronous area, the island of Ireland, the Iberian Peninsula, Texas (ERCOT), the central European system, and Great Britain.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Physics-Constrained Deep Learning Model for Simulating Multiphase Flow in 3D Heterogeneous Porous Media

Physics-based simulators for multiphase flow in porous media emulate nonlinear processes with coupled physics, and usually require extensive computational resources for software development, maintenance and simulation execution. As a result, a huge demand exists for fast modeling of coupled processes in a wide range of subsurface applications including geological sequestration, hydrocarbon recovery and geothermal energy extraction. In this work, an efficient physics-constrained deep learning model is developed for solving multiphase flow in 3-Dimensional (3D) heterogeneous porous media. The model fully leverages the spatial topology predictive capability of convolutional neural networks, specifically U-Net with successive contracting and expansive steps, and is coupled with an efficient continuity-based smoother to predict flow responses that need spatial continuity. Furthermore, the transient regions are penalized to steer the training process such that the model can accurately capture flow in these regions. The model takes inputs including properties of porous media, fluid properties and well controls, and predicts the temporal-spatial evolution of the state variables (pressure and saturation). While maintaining the continuity of fluid flow, the 3D spatial domain is decomposed into 2D images for reducing training cost, and the decomposition results in an increased number of training data samples and better training efficiency. Additionally, a surrogate model is separately constructed as a postprocessor to calculate well flow rate based on the predictions of state variables from the deep learning model. We use the example of CO 2 injection into saline aquifers, and apply the physics-constrained deep learning model that is trained from physics-based simulation data and emulates the physics process. The model performs prediction with a speedup of ~ 1400 times compared to physics-based simulations, and the average temporal errors of predicted pressure and saturation plumes are 0.27% and 0.099% respectively. Furthermore, water production rate is efficiently predicted by a surrogate model for well flow rate, with a mean error less than 5%. Therefore, with its unique scheme to cope with the fidelity in fluid flow in porous media, the physics-constrained deep learning model can become an efficient predictive model for computationally demanding inverse problems or other coupled processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Increased exposure of coastal cities to sea-level rise due to internal climate variability

Adaptation to future sea-level rise is based on projections of continuously improving climate models. These projections are accompanied by inherent uncertainties, including those due to internal climate variability (ICV). The ICV arises from complex and unpredictable interactions within and between climate-system components, rendering its impact irreducible. Although neglecting this uncertainty can lead to an underestimation of future sea-level rise, its estimation and impacts have not been fully explored. Combining the Community Earth System Model version 1 Large Ensemble experiments with power-law statistics, we show that, by 2100, if the ICV uncertainty reaches its upper limit, new sea-level-rise hotspots would appear in Southeast Asian megacities (Chennai, Kolkata, Yangon, Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City and Manila), in western tropical Pacific Islands and the Western Indian Ocean. Here, the better the ICV uncertainty is taken into account and correctly estimated, the more effective adaptation strategies can be elaborated with confidence and actions to follow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Green edge emitting lasers with porous GaN cladding

GaN lasers with green emission wavelength at λ = 510 nm have been fabricated using novel nano-porous GaN cladding under pulsed electrical injection. The low slope efficiency of 0.13 W/A and high threshold current density of 14 kA/cm 2 are related to a combination of poor injection efficiency and high loss, analyzed by the independent characterization methods of variable stripe length and segmented contacts. Continuous wave operation showed narrowed spectra and augmented spontaneous emission.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Product ion distributions using H 3 O + proton-transfer-reaction time-of-flight mass spectrometry (PTR-ToF-MS): mechanisms, transmission effects, and instrument-to-instrument variability

Abstract. Proton-transfer-reaction mass spectrometry (PTR-MS) using hydronium ion (H3O+) ionization is widely used for the measurement of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) both indoors and outdoors. H3O+ ionization, as well as the associated chemistry in an ion–molecule reactor, is known to generate product ion distributions (PIDs) that include other product ions besides the proton-transfer product. We present a method, using gas-chromatography pre-separation, for quantifying PIDs from PTR-MS measurements of nearly 100 VOCs of different functional types including alcohols, ketones, aldehydes, acids, aromatics, organohalides, and alkenes. We characterize instrument configuration effects on PIDs and find that reactor reduced electric field strength (E/N), ion optic voltage gradients, and quadrupole settings have the strongest impact on measured PIDs. Through an interlaboratory comparison of PIDs measured from calibration cylinders, we characterized the variability of PID production from the same model of PTR-MS across seven participating laboratories. Product ion variability was generally smaller (e.g., < 20 %) for ions with larger contributions to the PIDs (e.g., > 0.30) but less predictable for product ions formed through O2+ and NO+ reactions. We present a publicly available library of H3O+ PTR-MS PIDs that will be updated periodically with user-provided data for the continued investigation into instrument-to-instrument variability of PIDs.

Link, Michael F. (ORCID:0000000218412455)↗

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part II: Statistical Downscaling

Abstract Capacity factors (CFs) derived from daily expected power at 22 operating wind farms in different regions of North America are used as predictands to train statistical downscaling algorithms using output from ERA5. The statistical downscaling models are then used to make CF projections for a suite of CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs). Downscaling is performed using a hybrid statistical approach that employs synoptic types derived using k -means clustering applied to sea level pressure fields with variance corrections applied as a function of the pressure gradient intensity. ESMs exhibit marked variability in terms of the skill with which the frequency of synoptic types and pressure gradients are reproduced relative to ERA5, and that differential skill is used to infer differential credibility in the associated CF projections. Projections of median annual mean CF [P50(CF)] in each 20-yr period from 1980 to 2099 show evidence of declines at most wind farms except in parts of the southern Great Plains, although the magnitude of the changes is strongly dependent on the ESM. For example, P50(CF) in 2080–99 deviate from those in 1980–99 by from −3.1 to +0.2 percentage points in the Northeast. The largest-magnitude declines in P50(CF) ranging from −3.9 to −2 percentage points are projected for the southern West Coast. CF trends exhibit marked seasonality and are strongly linked to changes in the relative intensity of future synoptic patterns, with much less impact from shifts in the occurrence of synoptic types over time. Internal climate modes continue to play a significant role in inducing interannual variability in wind power production, even under high radiative forcing scenarios. Significance Statement We describe how future climate changes may affect wind resources and wind power generation. Near-term changes in projected wind power electricity generation potential at operating wind farms over North America are small, but by the end of the current century electricity production is projected to decrease in many areas but may increase in parts of the southern Great Plains. The amount of change in projected wind power production is a strong function of the Earth system model that is downscaled and also depends on the continued presence of internally forced climate variability. An additional dependence on the amount of greenhouse gas–induced global warming indicates the transition of the energy sector to low-carbon sources may assist in maintaining the abundant U.S. wind resource.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗