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A detailed, end-to-end analysis of the activities, techniques, equipment and Shuttle provisions required to construct a reference project system is described. Included are: platform definition; construction analysis; cost and programmatics; and space construction experiments concepts.
In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering process parameters are elicited from the engineer/expert on the project and are based on that expert's technical knowledge. These are converted by a parametric cost model into a cost estimate. The method discussed makes no assumptions about the distribution underlying the distribution of possible costs, and is not tied to the analysis of previous projects, except through the expert calibrations performed by the parametric cost analyst.
Two sixty-foot, low-cost, wood composite blades for service on 200 kW Mod-OA wind turbines were constructed. The blades were constructed of epoxy resin-bonded Douglas fir veneers for the leading edge sections, and paper honeycombcored, birch plywood faced panels for the afterbody sections. The blades were joined to the wind turbine hub by epoxy resin-bonded steel load take-off studs embedded into the root end of the blades. The blades were installed on the 200 kW Mod-OA wind turbine facility at Kahuku, Hawaii, The blades completed nearly 8,000 hours of operation over an 18 month period at an average power of 150 kW prior to replacement with another set of wood composite blades. The blades were replaced because of a corrosion failure of the steel shank on one stud. Inspections showed that the wood composite structure remained in excellent condition.
Cost and programmatic elements of the space construction systems analysis study are discussed. The programmatic aspects of the ETVP program define a comprehensive plan for the development of a space platform, the construction system, and the space shuttle operations/logistics requirements. The cost analysis identified significant items of cost on ETVP development, ground, and flight segments, and detailed the items of space construction equipment and operations.
The following is a design for a tensile tester which will be used to test the tensile strength and anisotropic properties of simple composites. These simple composites are suspected to be anisotropic primarily in a single plane. When the composites undergo a tensile force, they will undergo deformation, causing movement either to the left or right. The composites are suspect due to their method of construction. Each sample has a single layer of unidirectional continuous fibers embedded in a rubbery resin. It has been well established that a serious limitation of unidirectional fiber composites is the very large in-plane anisotropy. The design presented here incorporates a single degree of freedom such that distortion (to the left or right) due to anisotropic tendencies may be measured. The device will spend the vast majority of its time in an undergraduate materials lab. As a result, ease of use and durability are valued more highly than research grade accuracy. Additional concerns focus on the fact that this machine will be built as a student project. Issues which are dealt with during this design include: specimen configuration or shape; a method of applying consistent, linear tension force; a method of gripping specimen without affecting its overall properties; a method of collecting data; repeatability of data; ease of use; ease of construction; and cost. After the device has been constructed, it will be used to test the simple composites which were fabricated in house. A comparison will be made between composites manufactured using aluminum screening as the strengthening fibers and those manufactured using fiberglass screening.
While the main thrust of quantum computing research in materials science is to accurately measure the classically intractable electron correlation effects due to Coulomb repulsion, designing optimal quantum algorithms for simpler problems with well-understood solutions is a useful tactic to advance our quantum “toolbox”. With this in mind, we consider the quantum calculation of a periodic system’s single-electron band structure over a path through reciprocal space. Previous efforts have used the Variational Quantum Eigensolver algorithm to solve the energy of each band, which involves numerically optimizing the parameters of a variational quantum circuit to minimize a cost function, constructed as the expectation value of a Hamiltonian operator. Traditionally, a unique Hamiltonian operator is constructed for each k-point, so that many cost functions, each with their own parameter space, must be optimized to generate a single band. Similarly, calculating higher bands than the first has traditionally involved modifying the cost function with additional overlap terms to ensure higher-energy eigenstates are orthogonal to those of lower bands. In this paper, we adopt a direct space approach, using a novel hybrid first/second-quantized qubit mapping which allows us to construct a single Hamiltonian, and a single cost-function, suitable for solving the entire electronic band structure. In contrast to previous approaches, the k-point and the band index are selected by additional parameters in our quantum circuit, rather than through modifications to the cost function. The result is a technically and conceptually simpler approach to band structure calculations on a quantum computer. Moreover, we expect that the tools developed herein will motivate new strategies for tackling highly-correlated materials beyond the grasp of classical computing.
New reactor designs and technologies are being developed to grow and advance the nuclear industry. Microreactors are one of the many new concepts for advancing the industry. Microreactors are very small reactors generally designed to have an operating power of 20 MWth or less. They are ideal for many applications in which it would not be feasible to have a large-scale reactor, such as powering remote communities, military bases, and mining sites. Many of these applications currently rely on diesel generators for power, and replacing those generators with the carbon-free energy of a microreactor is a major driving factor for microreactor development. However, most of the use cases for microreactors are in isolated locations where construction and labor costs are much higher. Microreactors will need to be comparable to other energy production methods for their deployment to be successful. Remotely operating the microreactor has a great potential to benefit the economics and make it more cost competitive. With remote operations, the operation facility location could be strategically chosen based on factors such as construction costs, workforce size, etc. The benefits of remote operations could be leveraged even more if the remote operation system is semi-autonomous. If the remote operation system is semi-autonomous, more microreactors could be operated and monitored from one remote operation facility. Additionally, with the system handling some tasks for the human operator, it could reduce the number of operating staff necessary for the microreactor. Digital twins can be used to introduce a level of automation to the remote operation system. Digital twins are capable of component monitoring, system operation and control, and predictive performance [1]. All of those features are important for a successful semi-autonomous remote operation system.
Abstract. Reservoirs play a significant role in modifying the spatiotemporal availability of surface water to meet multi-sector human demands, despite representing a relatively small fraction of the global water budget. Yet the integrated modeling frameworks that explore the interactions among climate, land, energy, water, and socioeconomic systems at a global scale often contain limited representations of water storage dynamics that incorporate feedbacks from other systems. In this study, we implement a representation of water storage in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to enable the exploration of the future role (e.g., expansion) of reservoir water storage globally in meeting demands for, and evolving in response to interactions with, the climate, land, and energy systems. GCAM represents 235 global water basins, operates at 5-year time steps, and uses supply curves to capture economic competition among renewable water (now including reservoirs), non-renewable groundwater, and desalination. Our approach consists of developing the GLObal Reservoir Yield (GLORY) model, which uses a linear programming (LP)-based optimization algorithm and dynamically linking GLORY with GCAM. The new coupled GCAM–GLORY approach improves the representation of reservoir water storage in GCAM in several ways. First, the GLORY model identifies the cost of supplying increasing levels of water supply from reservoir storage by considering regional physical and economic factors, such as evolving monthly reservoir inflows and demands, and the leveled cost of constructing additional reservoir storage capacity. Second, by passing those costs to GCAM, GLORY enables the exploration of future regional reservoir expansion pathways and their response to climate and socioeconomic drivers. To guide the model toward reasonable reservoir expansion pathways, GLORY applies a diverse array of feasibility constraints related to protected land, population, water sources, and cropland. Finally, the GLORY–GCAM feedback loop allows evolving water demands from GCAM to inform GLORY, resulting in an updated supply curve at each time step, thus enabling GCAM to establish a more meaningful economic value of water. This study improves our understanding of the sensitivity of reservoir water supply to multiple physical and economic dimensions, such as sub-annual variations in climate conditions and human water demands, especially for basins experiencing socioeconomic droughts.
In the design of textile composites, the selection of materials and constructional techniques must be matched with product performance, productivity, and cost requirements. Constructional techniques vary. A classification of various textile composite systems is given. In general, the chopped fiber system is not suitable for structural composite applications because of fiber discontinuity, uncontrolled fiber orientation and a lack of fiber integration or entanglement. Linear filament yarn systems are acceptable for structural components which are exposed to simple tension in their applications. To qualify for more general use as structural components, filament yarn systems must be multi-directionally positioned. With the most sophisticated filament winding and laying techniques, however, the Type 2 systems have limited potential for general load-bearing applications because of a lack of filament integration or entanglement, which means vulnerability to splitting and delamination among filament layers. The laminar systems (Type 3) represented by a variety of simple fabrics (woven, knitted, braided and nonwoven) are especially suitable for load-bearing panels in flat form and for beams in a roled up to wound form. The totally integrated, advanced fabric system (Type 4) are thought to be the most reliable for general load-bearing applications because of fiber continuity and because of controlled multiaxial fiber orientation and entanglement. Consequently, the risk of splitting and delamination is minimized and practically omitted. Type 4 systems can be woven, knitted, braided or stitched through with very special equipment. Multiaxial fabric technologies are discussed.
The building in the top photo is the new home of the National Permanent Savings Bank in Washington, D.C., designed by Hartman-Cox Architects. Its construction was based on a money-saving method of preparing building specifications which derived from NASA technology developed to obtain quality construction while holding down cost of launch facilities, test centers and other structures. Written technical specifications spell out materials and components to be used on construction projects and identify the quality tests each item must pass. Specifications can have major impact on construction costs. Poorly formulated specifications can lead to unacceptable construction which must be replaced, unnecessarily high materials costs, safety hazards, disputes and often additional costs due to delays and litigation. NASA's Langley Research Center developed a novel approach to providing accurate, uniform, cost-effective specifications which can be readily updated to incorporate new building technologies. Called SPECSINTACT, it is a computerized - system accessible to all NASA centers involved in construction programs. The system contains a comprehensive catalog of master specifications applicable to many types of construction. It enables designers of any structure to call out relevant sections from computer storage and modify them to fit the needs of the project at hand. Architects and engineers can save time by concentrating their efforts on needed modifications rather than developing all specifications from scratch. Successful use of SPECSINTACT has led to a number of spinoff systems. One of the first was MASTERSPEC, developed from NASA's experience by Production Systems for Architects and Engineers, Inc., an organization established by the American Institute of Architects. MASTERSPEC, used in construction of the bank building pictured, follows the same basic format as SPECSINTACT and can be used in either automated or manual modes. The striking appearance of the bank building shows that, while MASTERSPEC saves time and money, its use involves no sacrfice in architectural design freedom. The Naval Engineering Facilities Command employs an automated specifications system based on SPECSINTACT. The Public Buildings Service of the General Services Administration used SPECSINTACT as a starting point in a plan to make its guideline specifications available to architects and engineers on a nationwide computer network. Public Technology, Inc., a NASA Technology Application Team, is working with Production Systems for Architects and Engineers, Inc., to promote widespread use of the system by state and local governments for cost benefits to taxpayers.
Cost estimates for the space station systems analysis were recorded. Space construction base costs and characteristics were cited as well as mission hardware costs and characteristics. Also delineated were cost ground rules, the program schedule, and a detail cost estimate and funding distribution.
A program plan for the Solar Power Satellite Program is presented. The plan includes research, development, and evaluation phase, engineering and development and cost verification phase, prototype construction, and commercialization. Cost estimates and task requirements are given for the following technology areas: (1) solar arrays; (2) thermal engines and thermal systems; (3) power transmission (to earth); (4) large space structures; (5) materials technology; (6) system control; (7) space construction; (8) space transportation; (9) power distribution, and space environment effects.
Significant advancements were made in a number of areas: improved efficiency of basic receiving element at low power density levels, improved resolution and confidence in efficiency measurements mathematical modelling and computer simulation of the receiving element and the design, construction, and testing of an environmentally protected two-plane construction suitable for low cost, highly automated construction of large receiving arrays.
During this quarter, flat-plate solar collector systems were considered and six basic construction elements were identified: outer coatings, superstrates, pottants, substrates, undercoats, and adhesives. Materials surveys were then initiated to discover either generic classes or/and specific products to function as each construction element. Cost data included in the surveys permit ready evaluation of each material. Silicones, fluorocarbons, glass, and acrylic polymers have the highest inherent weatherability of materials studied to date. Only acrylics, however, combine low costs, environmental resistance, and potential processability. This class will receive particular emphasis.
To facilitate the provision of electric vehicle charging stations (EVCS) in urban areas, this study investigates the benefits of co-locating fleet-owned chargers with public charging stations to enable construction incentives and cord-sharing cost savings. Shared EVCS can serve charging demand from both user types: private (household) EV owners and those managing fleet vehicles – like shared and fully automated EV (SAEV) fleets. Using POLARIS to simulate all person-travel across the 6-county Austin, Texas region, new EVCS were sited and sized with DC fast-charging (DCFC) plugs to lower operating and construction costs while providing public + private (PP) service across an 81-square-mile core geofence (where 200 SAEVs were active) over 24-hour days. When co-location is permitted, 115 DCFC cords were added to the 23 existing (publicly available) stations to enable SAEVs and household EVs (HHEVs) charging access, within the geofence. Each 250-mile-range SAEV was simulated to travel an average of 330 miles per day, serve over 92 person-trips, and recharge 2.7 times a day (for 2.4 h per session). The new DCFC plugs were primarily added to public EVCS at shopping centers and schools, and in residential settings along freeways. The average plug served 4.8 EVs per day. Most co-located PP EVCS permitted immediate (no-wait) charging, except for 2 stations along freeways that averaged 8 min of wait time to begin charging. In conclusion, the co-location strategy lowered fleet owners’ initial EVCS construction costs by 12 % (thanks to cord-sharing to avoid cord duplication), while reducing SAEV wait times to just 3.1 min (versus 10.7 min if SAEV managers had to build and operate their own EVCS).
NREL’s Industrialized Construction Innovation Team has developed an ambitious plan to accelerate the integration of energy efficiency (EE) strategies with Industrialized Construction (IC). The United States (U.S.) construction industry is beginning to use IC methods to build multifamily apartment buildings to address affordability and labor shortages. Apart from reducing cost of construction and delivery times, the IC method of permanent modular construction has the potential to facilitate the integration of a wide range of EE strategies and advanced controls into such buildings. While there may be unintended EE benefits to IC such as a tighter envelope due to higher construction quality, the process has not been leveraged specifically to enhance EE. NREL aims to claim this missed opportunity and integrate IC benefits with EE as well as advanced controls, distributed energy resources, and grid-friendly design strategies. The paper proposes an ‘IC Assessment Framework’ to achieve affordable zero-energy modular multifamily buildings. Through the selection criteria of Design for Manufacturing and Assembly, the framework aims to distill a broad range of proven EE strategies for site-built into a set of strategies that qualify as easy to integrate for off-site. The output is a Factory Information Model (FIM) that represents a process-based digital twin to enable advanced time-and-motion study, plugs into open source building energy modeling platform (EnergyPlus), and serves as a vital tool facilitating wider adoption of EE integration. Conclusively, the paper delineates next steps for upcoming pilots with NREL’s IC partners towards developing a transformational pathway for our Clean Energy Future.
The classes of major structural components and constructions utilized were considered. A review of the current (SPS) structure technology status was made. The major issues considered pertinent to SPS structures are: Cost effective construction, construction materials, structural design requirements, stress and dimensional integrity of as-built structures, and predictability of strength and dynamic behavior. The feasibility of passive figure control approach to MPTS flatness, of structure stiffness compatible with MPTS pointing, of passive control through damping, and the feasibility of space fabrication of ultra-large reflector surfaces are also considered. Qualification, model verification, inspection are considered of vital concern.
The completion of Vogtle Units 3 and 4, despite significant cost and schedule overruns, a major bankruptcy, and a pandemic, demonstrates that the U.S. nuclear industry can still develop new supply chains, train a highly skilled workforce, and build large nuclear power plants. Vogtle, being a first-of-a-kind (FOAK) plant, faced overruns, but FOAK overruns can decrease with more deployments through a combination of design standardization and modularization, transferring and implementing lessons learned between consecutive projects, and innovation. This report quantifies the potential cost and schedule reductions in future AP1000 plants in the US and identifies the barriers in achieving those reductions. It starts with a summary and analysis of the cost and construction timeline data for AP1000 plants that started construction in the United States (Vogtle) and China. Motivated by the steep schedule reductions from the first to second series of AP1000 plants in China, a cost reduction model was developed to quantify potential reductions for future AP1000 builds in the US. Results show that within about 3 more builds, AP1000s can become economically attractive in large markets in the U.S., without leveraging the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) or Production Tax Credit (PTC), and much sooner if these tax credits are available. Importantly the financial risks for future AP1000 builds in the US might be much smaller than observed in the FOAK plants. The study also identifies various barriers for future builds including the availability of a supply chain and a skilled workforce, and emphasizes the importance of making investments to gather and implement lessons learned between consecutive projects.