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NASA NTRS1973

Exact intervals and tests for median when one sample value possibly an outliner

Available are independent observations (continuous data) that are believed to be a random sample. Desired are distribution-free confidence intervals and significance tests for the population median. However, there is the possibility that either the smallest or the largest observation is an outlier. Then, use of a procedure for rejection of an outlying observation might seem appropriate. Such a procedure would consider that two alternative situations are possible and would select one of them. Either (1) the n observations are truly a random sample, or (2) an outlier exists and its removal leaves a random sample of size n-1. For either situation, confidence intervals and tests are desired for the median of the population yielding the random sample. Unfortunately, satisfactory rejection procedures of a distribution-free nature do not seem to be available. Moreover, all rejection procedures impose undesirable conditional effects on the observations, and also, can select the wrong one of the two above situations. It is found that two-sided intervals and tests based on two symmetrically located order statistics (not the largest and smallest) of the n observations have this property.

Keller, G. J.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Studies of cluster X-ray sources, energy spectra for the Perseus, Virgo, and Coma clusters

Final Uhuru X-ray differential-energy spectra are presented for the Perseus, Virgo, and Coma clusters. Power-law and isothermal bremsstrahlung model spectra with low-energy cutoffs are given, and the energy-dependent Gaunt factor is calculated for the bremsstrahlung. The spectra, which are best fits to the Uhuru data between 2 and 10 keV, are compared with previous observations of these sources in the energy range from 0.1 to 100 keV. The problem of parameter estimation is discussed, error bars with 68% confidence are given for the independently determined slope and cutoff parameters, and the 68% confidence limits are plotted for the fitted spectral functions. The data for Perseus above 20 keV marginally favor the bremsstrahlung fit, those for Virgo between 0.25 and 1.0 keV clearly favor that curve, and those for Coma indicate a low-energy turnover or cutoff. Implications of such a cutoff are briefly discussed.

Kellogg, E.↗

NASA NTRS1975

A review of the state-of-the-art of the non-destructive testing of flight pressure vessels

The design of flight vessels is based on a nominal stress requirement and a fracture mechanics approach, and optimization of the weight of the vessel is based on the smallest size defect that can be detected with a high degree of confidence. The wide variety of metals used for fabrication, and the different defects that may be present in them at every stage, up to completion of the vessel, is described. Techniques currently being used for NDT are described along with their advantages, limitations and limits of detectability at high levels of confidence. Techniques considered for use in the future to improve the limits of the minimum flaw size that can currently be detected include the Delta Scan and Acoustic Emission techniques. The construction of space vessels for use in the future has been modified to reduce the presence of critical defects and so to improve the cost effectiveness of projected NDT requirements.

Noronha, P. J.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Volume Fraction Determination in Cast Superalloys and DS Eutectic Alloys by a New Practice for Manual Point Counting

Volume fraction of a constituent or phase was estimated in six specimens of conventional and DS-eutectic superalloys, using ASTM E562-76, a new standard recommended practice for determining volume fraction by systematic manual point count. Volume fractions determined ranged from 0.086 to 0.36, and with one exception, the 95 percent relative confidence limits were approximately 10 percent of the determined volume fractions. Since the confidence-limit goal of 10 percent, which had been arbitrarily chosen previously, was achieved in all but one case, this application of the new practice was considered successful.

Andrews, C. W.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Assessment of NDE Reliability Data

Twenty sets of relevant Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) reliability data have been identified, collected, compiled, and categorized. A criterion for the selection of data for statistical analysis considerations has been formulated. A model to grade the quality and validity of the data sets has been developed. Data input formats, which record the pertinent parameters of the defect/specimen and inspection procedures, have been formulated for each NDE method. A comprehensive computer program has been written to calculate the probability of flaw detection at several confidence levels by the binomial distribution. This program also selects the desired data sets for pooling and tests the statistical pooling criteria before calculating the composite detection reliability. Probability of detection curves at 95 and 50 percent confidence levels have been plotted for individual sets of relevant data as well as for several sets of merged data with common sets of NDE parameters.

Yee, B. G. W.↗

NASA NTRS1976

The statistical significance of error probability as determined from decoding simulations for long codes

The very low error probability obtained with long error-correcting codes results in a very small number of observed errors in simulation studies of practical size and renders the usual confidence interval techniques inapplicable to the observed error probability. A natural extension of the notion of a 'confidence interval' is made and applied to such determinations of error probability by simulation. An example is included to show the surprisingly great significance of as few as two decoding errors in a very large number of decoding trials.

Massey, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Search for X-ray polarization in Cygnus X-1

Cygnus X-1 was observed at 2.6 and 5.2 keV during a three-day period in November 1975 by the X-ray polarimeters on the OSO-8 satellite. At the 99% confidence level, the results are consistent with the source being unpolarized. Positive evidence for polarization at 2.6 keV was obtained at the 96% confidence level.

Weisskopf, M. C.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Reliability of nondestructive evaluation data

Program calculates probability of defects at selected confidence levels from nondestructive evaluation data. It provides alternate method of grouping sample data to obtain reasonable value for lower confidence limit with small sample size.

Couchman, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Automotive Stirling Engine Development Program

The third quarter (April-June, 1978) effort of the Ford/DOE Automotive Stirling Engine Development Program is reported, specifically Task 1 of that effort, which is Fuel Economy Assessment. At the end of this quarter the total fourth generation fuel economy projection was 26.12 MPG (gasoline) with a confidence level of 44%. This represents an improvement of 66.4% over the baseline M-H fuel economy of 15.7 MPG. The confidence level for the original 20.6 MPG goal has been increased from 53% to 57%. Engine 3X17 has accumulated a total of 213 hours of variable speed running. A summary of the individual sub-tasks of Task 1 are given. The sub-tasks are grouped into two categories: Category 1 consists of those sub-tasks which are directly related to fuel economy and Category 2 consists of those sub-tasks which are not directly related to fuel economy but are an integral part of the Task 1 effort.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1979

X-ray emission from the region of gamma 195 plus 5

X-ray emission from the vicinity of the MeV gamma ray source, gamma 195+5, was observed with the HEAO-A2 detectors. A source with an intensity of (1.5 + pr - 0.5) x 10 to the -11th power erg/sq cm s (2-6 keV) was seen in each of two separate observations at a combined confidence level of 3.1 sigma. The location of the source is l2 = 194.56 degrees, b2 = 4.92 degrees with a 90% confidence error box of 1.4 square degrees, significantly smaller than the positional uncertainty of the gamma ray source, and consistent with its location. The chance overlap of such an X-ray source with the gamma ray region is estimated to be 9% and, therefore, they may be 9% and therefore they may be associated. The spectrum appears too steep to extrapolate simply to the 100 MeV flux value for gamma 195+5.

Worrall, D. M.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Coal's role in California's energy needs

California's post-industrial society demands confidence in the energy supply system as an essential ingredient for social harmony and adequate job creating capital investment. Confidence requires policies which balance supply and demand using believable methods with adequate allowance for the unexpected, reliance on diverse sources and locations, respect for our environment, sustain our individual freedoms and provide opportunities for economic mobility. Coal will play only a part, but an important part, in a multifaceted energy policy using numerous energy sources and systems, conservation techniques, and cooperating societal institutions. Today's extensive and challenging research and development provides the foundation for future technologies which will further resolve the environmental effects associated with coal.

Daines, N. H.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Parameter estimation in X-ray astronomy using maximum likelihood

Methods of estimation of parameter values and confidence regions by maximum likelihood and Fisher efficient scores starting from Poisson probabilities are developed for the nonlinear spectral functions commonly encountered in X-ray astronomy. It is argued that these methods offer significant advantages over the commonly used alternatives called minimum chi-squared because they rely on less pervasive statistical approximations and so may be expected to remain valid for data of poorer quality. Extensive numerical simulations of the maximum likelihood method are reported which verify that the best-fit parameter value and confidence region calculations are correct over a wide range of input spectra.

Wachter, K.↗

NASA NTRS1979

The interaction of the solar wind with comets

Presently, it can be stated with confidence that the cometary plasma tail is a product of the comet's interaction with the solar wind, however, beyond this statement, our confidence decreases rapidly. Even our physical understanding of the comet-solar wind interaction is in a primitive state. Because of this, an empirical approach (based on observations and illustrations) is adopted in the present study. The topics covered include the ion species and production zone of cometary plasma; a continuum description of comet/solar wind interaction in the hydrodynamic approximation; the generation of tail streamers; Alfven's hydromagnetic model of cometary tails, and its consequences; the gross and fine structure of the plasma tail; and the problem of anomalous comets.

Brandt, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS1978

A study of trends and techniques for space base electronics

A sputtering system was developed to deposit aluminum and aluminum alloys by the dc sputtering technique. This system is designed for a high level of cleanliness and for monitoring the deposition parameters during film preparation. This system is now ready for studying the deposition and annealing parameters upon double-level metal preparation. A technique recently applied for semiconductor analysis, the finite element method, was studied for use in the computer modeling of two dimensional MOS transistor structures. It was concluded that the method has not been sufficiently well developed for confident use at this time. An algorithm was developed for confident use at this time. An algorithm was developed for implementing a computer study which is based upon the finite difference method. The program which was developed was modified and used to calculate redistribution data for boron and phosphorous which had been predeposited by ion implantation with range and straggle conditions. Data were generated for 111 oriented SOS films with redistribution in N2, dry O2 and steam ambients.

Trotter, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Laboratory evaluation of the pointing stability of the ASPS Vernier System

The annular suspension and pointing system (ASPS) is an end-mount experiment pointing system designed for use in the space shuttle. The results of the ASPS Vernier System (AVS) pointing stability tests conducted in a laboratory environment are documented. A simulated zero-G suspension was used to support the test payload in the laboratory. The AVS and the suspension were modelled and incorporated into a simulation of the laboratory test. Error sources were identified and pointing stability sensitivities were determined via simulation. Statistical predictions of laboratory test performance were derived and compared to actual laboratory test results. The predicted mean pointing stability during simulated shuttle disturbances was 1.22 arc seconds; the actual mean laboratory test pointing stability was 1.36 arc seconds. The successful prediction of laboratory test results provides increased confidence in the analytical understanding of the AVS magnetic bearing technology and allows confident prediction of in-flight performance. Computer simulations of ASPS, operating in the shuttle disturbance environment, predict in-flight pointing stability errors less than 0.01 arc seconds.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1979

Velocity dispersions for X-ray-emitting clusters of galaxies

Combining spectroscopy for five clusters of galaxies reported to contain X-ray sources with previously published data for 21 X-ray clusters, suggested correlations between the cluster's velocity dispersions and their X-ray properties have been tested. Unlike previous investigations, it is found that, for all reasonable data subsets, the cluster radial velocity dispersions sigma(r) are correlated with the cluster X-ray luminosities L/x/ at a confidence level exceeding 99%. The best-fit slope of the (log sigma/r/, log L/x/)-relation is somewhat larger than theoretically predicted, but accurate determination of that relation requires further X-ray and optical observations. For the 'most reliable' data subsample a correlation between sigma(r) and the X-ray source temperatures is also found but at a much lower confidence level (85%) than derived by previous investigators from smaller samples.

Hintzen, P.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Effects of aerodynamic heating and TPS thermal performance uncertainties on the Shuttle Orbiter

A procedure for estimating uncertainties in the aerodynamic-heating and thermal protection system (TPS) thermal-performance methodologies developed for the Shuttle Orbiter is presented. This procedure is used in predicting uncertainty bands around expected or nominal TPS thermal responses for the Orbiter during entry. Individual flowfield and TPS parameters that make major contributions to these uncertainty bands are identified and, by statistical considerations, combined in a manner suitable for making engineering estimates of the TPS thermal confidence intervals and temperature margins relative to design limits. Thus, for a fixed TPS design, entry trajectories for future Orbiter missions can be shaped subject to both the thermal-margin and confidence-interval requirements. This procedure is illustrated by assessing the thermal margins offered by selected areas of the existing Orbiter TPS design for an entry trajectory typifying early flight test missions.

Goodrich, W. D.↗

NASA NTRS1981

JPL antenna technology development

Plans for evaluating, designing, fabricating, transporting and deploying cost effective and STS compatible offset wrap rib antennas up to 300 meters in diameter for mobile communications, Earth resources observation, and for the orbiting VLBI are reviewed. The JPL surface measurement system, intended for large mesh deployable antenna applications will be demonstrated and validated as part of the antenna ground based demonstration program. Results of the offset wrap rib deployable antenna technology development will include: (1) high confidence structural designs for antennas up to 100 meters in diameter; (2) high confidence estimates of functional performance and fabrication cost for a wide range of antenna sizes (up to 300 meters in diameter); (3) risk assessment for fabricating the large size antennas; and (4) 55 meter diameter flight quality hardware that can be cost effectively completed toto accommodate a flight experiment and/or application.

Freeland, R. E.↗