Results for “conditional probability” — Page 11

NASA NTRS2019

Toward Ultralight High Strength Structural Materials via Collapsed Carbon Nanotube Bonding

The growing commercial availability of carbon nanotube (CNT) macro-assemblies such as sheet and yarn is making their use in structural composite components increasingly feasible. However, the mechanical properties of these materials continue to trail those of state-of-the-art carbon fiber composites due to relatively weak inter-tube load transfer. Forming covalent links between adjacent CNTs promises to mitigate this problem, but it has proven difficult in practice to introduce them chemically within densified and aligned CNT materials due to their low permeability. To avoid this limitation, this work explores the combination of pulsed electrical current, temperature, and pressure to introduce inter-CNT bonds. Reactive molecular dynamics simulations identify the most probable locations, configurations, and conditions for inter-nanotube bonds to form. This process is shown to introduce covalent linkages within the CNT material that manifest as improved macroscale mechanical properties. The magnitude of this effect increases with increasing levels of prealignment of the CNT material, promising a new synthesis pathway to ultralight structural materials with specific strengths and stiffnesses exceeding 1 and 100 GPa/(g/cu.cm), respectively.

Jensen, Benjamin D.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Do Better Satellite Precipitation Algorithms Improve Landslide Hazard Assessment?

Satellites make it possible to estimate precipitation in near real time. Given the challenges of achieving global coverage by other means, these data are used widely. However, few systems for landslide hazard assessment rely on satellite precipitation estimates. This could be due in part to perceptions of accuracy, although latency, spatial resolution, and other factors may also be important. We test whether recent changes to data streams from the Global Precipitation Measurement mission (GPM) have improved its potential for use in landslide prediction. Specifically, we examine data produced by the Integrated Multi-satellitERetrievals for the GPM (IMERG) algorithm, which was upgraded to version 7 this year. IMERG relies upon other algorithms, including the Goddard Profiling Algorithm (GPROF) and the GPM Combined Radar-Radiometer Algorithm (CORRA). Many changes have been made during the switch from IMERG version 6 to version 7. These include upgrading CORRA and GPROF to version 7, to improve the accuracy of precipitation in frozen, mountainous, and coastal areas. The measured intensity of some storms has been enhanced with a new algorithm, the Scheme for Histogram Adjustment with Ranked Precipitation Estimates in the Neighborhood. Combined with many others, these changes to IMERG should improve its utility for landslide hazard assessment in a variety of contexts. To test this idea, we retrain the global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model twice—first with data from IMERG version 6B and second with 7B. Since current daily rainfall is the most important variable in determining outcomes predicted by LHASA, it should reflect changes made to that input. First, we grid the landslides at a daily, thirty-arcsecond resolution. This serves as the response variable. At each of these sites current and antecedent rainfall are extracted, along with antecedent snow mass and soil moisture, slope, and PGA. In addition, one million grid cells are selected at random points to represent conditions under which landslides (probably) do not occur. After merging these data, we hold back 20% of the dataset for validation purposes and train a machine-learning model with the rest. We assess both the model’s overall ability to identify landslides and its ability to predict specific large landslide disasters.

Thomas A Stanley↗

NASA NTRS1992

Survival of microorganisms in smectite clays - Implications for Martian exobiology

The survival of Baccillus subtilis, Azotobacter chroococcum, and the enteric bacteriophage MS2 has been examined in clays representing terrestrial (Wyoming type montmorillonite) and Martian (Fe3+ montmorillonite) soils exposed to terrestrial and Martian environmental conditions of temperature and atmospheric composition and pressure. An important finding is that MS2 survived simulated Mars conditions better than the terrestrial environment, probably owing to stabilization of the virus caused by the cold and dry conditions of the simulated Mars environment. This finding, the first published indication that viruses may be able to survive in Mars-type soils, may have important implications for future missions to Mars.

Moll, Deborah M.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Regional landform thresholds

Remote sensing technology allows us to recognize manifestations of regional thresholds, especially in the spatial characteristics of process agents. For example, a change in river channel pattern over a short distance reflects a threshold alteration in the physical controls of discharge and/or sediment. It is, therefore, a valuable indication of conditions as they exist. However, we probably will have difficulty determining whether the systemic parameters are now close to threshold conditions at which a different change will occur. This, of course, is a temporal and magnitude problem which is difficult to solve from the spatial characteristics.

Ritter, D. F.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Probabilistic analysis of air carrier accidents

In order to estimate the potential risks due to carbon fibers (CF) released from aircraft accidents, it was necessary to quantify the probability of an accident or incident at a major hub airport. This probability was contingent upon various conditions surrounding the incident including the phase of operation, aircraft type, and the weather conditions. The type of accident predicted was categorized according to its location relative to the runway and the severity of damage sustained. The methodology utilized to estimate the probability of a specific type of accident is outlined and the various models that were developed in the course of this work are described.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2006

Performance and Reliability of Solid Tantalum Capacitors at Cryogenic Conditions

Performance of different types of solid tantalum capacitors was evaluated at room and low temperatures, down to 15 K. The effect of temperature on frequency dependencies of capacitance, effective series resistances (ESR), leakage currents, and breakdown voltages has been investigated and analyzed. To assess thermo-mechanical robustness of the parts, several groups of loose capacitors and those soldered on FR4 boards were subjected to multiple (up to 500) temperature cycles between room temperature and 77 K. Experiments and mathematical modeling have shown that degradation in tantalum capacitors at low temperatures is mostly due to increasing resistance of the manganese cathode layer, resulting in substantial decrease of the roll-off frequency. Absorption currents follow a power law, I approximately t(sup -m), with the exponent m varying from 0.8 to 1.1. These currents do not change significantly at cryogenic conditions and the value of the exponent remains the same down to 15 K. Variations of leakage currents with voltage can be described by Pool-Frenkel and Schottky mechanisms of conductivity, with the Schottky mechanism prevailing at cryogenic conditions. Breakdown voltages of tantalum capacitors increase and the probability of scintillations decreases at cryogenic temperatures. However, breakdown voltages measured during surge current testing decrease at liquid nitrogen (LN) compared to room-temperature conditions. Results of temperature cycling suggest that tantalum capacitors are capable of withstanding multiple exposures to cryogenic conditions, but the probability of failures varies for different part types.

Teverovsky, Alexander↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Preliminary Medical Risk Estimates and Clinical Capability Needs for Artemis IV

BACKGROUND Human exploration spaceflight missions to the Moon and Mars present unprecedented challenges for in- mission medical care. Compared with the ISS, the greater distance from Earth will mean increased mission durations, communication delays, limited to no resupply opportunities, and significant limitations on the evacuation of ill or injured crew. Spacecraft mass, volume, and power will be curtailed while higher demands will be placed on the crew’s knowledge, skills, and abilities. In this higher risk environment, it is important to: a) quantitatively estimate human system risk attributable to medical conditions, a process known as Probabilistic Risk Analysis, and b) use these estimates to inform medical system design. IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a PRA and medical trade space analysis tool developed by NASA to advance exploration mission medical system design. IMPACT v1.0 improves upon and will soon replace NASA’s existing tool, the Integrated Medical Model, with: a novel evidence base baselined to exploration environments; an expanded list of 119 medical conditions; a significant increase in the number of medical resources that can be utilized and in the flexibility of their use; and the modelling of time lost performing mission-specific tasks due to medical conditions. METHODOLOGY: This abstract will present IMPACT estimates of medical system risk and clinical capability needs for the Artemis IV mission. Artemis IV is currently scheduled for 2026 and will visit the Gateway space station in lunar orbit prior to the second lunar landing of the Artemis program. The baseline Artemis IV mission that was modeled was 28 days in duration with phases including Orion outbound, 4 days on the Gateway space station in lunar orbit, 2 crew on the surface of the Moon for approximately one week, an additional 5 days on Gateway, and then return to Earth. This baseline was compared to two alternative 34-day design reference missions (DRMs) that shifted the lunar sortie earlier or later in the mission profile. Assumptions included 2 female and 2 male crew and a notional medical system mass of 25 kg. Medical system risk estimates include loss of crew life (LOCL), consideration of medical evacuation (known as return to definitive care – RTDC), and an estimate of crew time lost due to medical conditions (Task Time Lost – TTL). The presentation will also describe the medical conditions that are the greatest drivers of risk as well as the clinical capabilities and resources that have the largest effect on risk. RESULTS: All three DRMs had very low probability of LOCL from medical conditions, primarily due to short duration. RTDC was also similar across the DRMs. In contrast, TTL was higher in the early lunar sortie DRM due to earlier occurrence of EVA-related medical conditions. Taken as a whole, there was no clinically significant difference in medical risk across the three missions. Results for clinical capabilities and an example medical equipment list will be discussed but were similar across DRMs.

D Hilmers↗

NASA NTRS2024

Preliminary Medical Risk Estimates and Clinical Capability Needs for Late Artemis Missions

BACKGROUND Human exploration spaceflight missions to the Moon and Mars present unprecedented challenges for in- mission medical care. Compared with the ISS, the greater distance from Earth will mean increased mission durations, communication delays, limited to no resupply opportunities, and significant limitations on the evacuation of ill or injured crew. Spacecraft mass, volume, and power will be curtailed while higher demands will be placed on the crew’s knowledge, skills, and abilities. In this higher risk environment, it is important to: a) quantitatively estimate human system risk attributable to medical conditions, a process known as Probabilistic Risk Analysis, and b) use these estimates to inform medical system design. IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a PRA and medical trade space analysis tool developed by NASA to advance exploration mission medical system design. IMPACT v1.0 improves upon and will soon replace NASA’s existing tool, the Integrated Medical Model, with: a novel evidence base baselined to exploration environments; an expanded list of 119 medical conditions; a significant increase in the number of medical resources that can be utilized and in the flexibility of their use; and the modelling of time lost performing mission-specific tasks due to medical conditions. METHODOLOGY: This abstract will present IMPACT estimates of medical system risk and clinical capability needs for the Artemis IV mission. Artemis IV is currently scheduled for 2026 and will visit the Gateway space station in lunar orbit prior to the second lunar landing of the Artemis program. The baseline Artemis IV mission that was modeled was 28 days in duration with phases including Orion outbound, 4 days on the Gateway space station in lunar orbit, 2 crew on the surface of the Moon for approximately one week, an additional 5 days on Gateway, and then return to Earth. This baseline was compared to two alternative 34-day design reference missions (DRMs) that shifted the lunar sortie earlier or later in the mission profile. Assumptions included 2 female and 2 male crew and a notional medical system mass of 25 kg. Medical system risk estimates include loss of crew life (LOCL), consideration of medical evacuation (known as return to definitive care – RTDC), and an estimate of crew time lost due to medical conditions (Task Time Lost – TTL). The presentation will also describe the medical conditions that are the greatest drivers of risk as well as the clinical capabilities and resources that have the largest effect on risk. RESULTS: All three DRMs had very low probability of LOCL from medical conditions, primarily due to short duration. RTDC was also similar across the DRMs. In contrast, TTL was higher in the early lunar sortie DRM due to earlier occurrence of EVA-related medical conditions. Taken as a whole, there was no clinically significant difference in medical risk across the three missions. Results for clinical capabilities and an example medical equipment list will be discussed but were similar across DRMs.

D. Hilmers↗

NASA NTRS1980

Probabilistic cluster labeling of imagery data

The problem of obtaining the probabilities of class labels for the clusters using spectral and spatial information from a given set of labeled patterns and their neighbors is considered. A relationship is developed between class and clusters conditional densities in terms of probabilities of class labels for the clusters. Expressions are presented for updating the a posteriori probabilities of the classes of a pixel using information from its local neighborhood. Fixed-point iteration schemes are developed for obtaining the optimal probabilities of class labels for the clusters. These schemes utilize spatial information and also the probabilities of label imperfections. Experimental results from the processing of remotely sensed multispectral scanner imagery data are presented.

Chittineni, C. B.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Chilldown study of the single stage inducer test rig

Of the six chilldown tests, data from only one could be used for evaluation. During the rest of the chilldown tests, there was leakage hydrogen flow into the pump cavity prior to the initiation of the chilldown test. In all of the tests the hydrogen condition into the pump was probably 100% vapor. The data from this one test, therefore, can be used to compare only the single phase fluid correlation in the analytical pump chilldown model. In general, the actual pump chilled down much faster than predicted by the analytical pump model. There were insufficient data from the test to measure the pump flow rate and pump inlet fluid condition; therefore, these parameters were extrapolated based on related data which were available. However, even with the highest probable flow rate, the pump chilled faster than predicted.

Kimura, L. A.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Screening and Qualification of BME Feedthrough Capacitors for a Space Project

Surface mount technology feedthrough ceramic capacitors are gaining popularity in Hi-Rel systems due to small size and great filtering characteristics. In this work, BME feedthrough capacitors compliant with AEC-Q200 requirements have been evaluated, screened and qualified for a space project. Evaluation included analysis of the effect of post-soldering thermal shocks, temperature dependencies of leakage currents, distribution of breakdown voltages, assessments of high-current capability, and thermal resistance of the parts. The parts have been screened and qualified at conditions close to the military requirements for ceramic capacitors. No failures were detected during screening including burning-in, but two samples failed during monitored 2000 hour life testing at 125C and two times rated voltage. Failure analysis revealed manufacturing defects that required additional analysis of screening and qualification test conditions. Highly accelerated life testing (HALT) has been carried out to assess reliability acceleration factors and the probability of failure at the use conditions. An approach to selection of adequate burning-in and life test conditions is discussed.

Alexander Teverovsky↗

NASA NTRS2021

Screening and Qualification of BME Feedthrough Capacitors for a Space Project

Surface mount technology feedthrough ceramic capacitors are gaining popularity in Hi-Rel systems due to small size and great filtering characteristics. In this work, BME feedthrough capacitors compliant with AEC-Q200 requirements have been evaluated, screened and qualified for a space project. Evaluation included analysis of the effect of post-soldering thermal shocks, temperature dependencies of leakage currents, distribution of breakdown voltages, assessments of high-current capability, and thermal resistance of the parts. The parts have been screened and qualified at conditions close to the military requirements for ceramic capacitors. No failures were detected during screening including burning-in, but two samples failed during monitored 2000 hour life testing at 125C and two times rated voltage. Failure analysis revealed manufacturing defects that required additional analysis of screening and qualification test conditions. Highly accelerated life testing (HALT) has been carried out to assess reliability acceleration factors and the probability of failure at the use conditions. An approach to selection of adequate burning-in and life test conditions is discussed.

Alexander Teverovsky↗

NASA NTRS1990

An assessment of the conditions for critical velocity ionization at the weakly magnetized planets

It has been proposed that critical velocity ionization (CVI) may occur in the magnetosheaths of weakly magnetized planets where the solar wind flows through the planets' upper atmospheres. One can examine this possibility for Venus and Mars by using magnetosheath flow and exosphere models to determine whether the criteria for CVI are met. These criteria include Brenning's empirical condition on the cross-field flow velocity (it must not exceed the local magnetosonic velocity) and the 'Townsend condition' requiring that the integrated probability of impact ionization by a hot electron be greater than 1 along a streamline past the planet. Application of the Spreiter-Stahara gas dynamic flow model and the Nagy and coworkers' models for the exospheres lead to the conclusion that the conditions can be met in a limited region near Venus. However, evidence for CVI has not been identified in in-situ data. Since key details of the planet-solar wind interaction can be explained in terms of photoionization alone, other signatures of the process must be sought in the observations if the presence of CVI is to be positively inferred.

Luhmann, J. G.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Space Shuttle Day-of-Launch Trajectory Design and Verification

A top priority of any launch vehicle is to insert as much mass into the desired orbit as possible. This requirement must be traded against vehicle capability in terms of dynamic control, thermal constraints, and structural margins. The vehicle is certified to a specific structural envelope which will yield certain performance characteristics of mass to orbit. Some envelopes cannot be certified generically and must be checked with each mission design. The most sensitive envelopes require an assessment on the day-of-launch. To further minimize vehicle loads while maximizing vehicle performance, a day-of-launch trajectory can be designed. This design is optimized according to that day s wind and atmospheric conditions, which will increase the probability of launch. The day-of-launch trajectory verification is critical to the vehicle's safety. The Day-Of-Launch I-Load Uplink (DOLILU) is the process by which the Space Shuttle Program redesigns the vehicle steering commands to fit that day's environmental conditions and then rigorously verifies the integrated vehicle trajectory's loads, controls, and performance. The Shuttle methodology is very similar to other United States unmanned launch vehicles. By extension, this method would be similar to the methods employed for any future NASA launch vehicles. This presentation will provide an overview of the Shuttle's day-of-launch trajectory optimization and verification as an example of a more generic application of dayof- launch design and validation.

Harrington, Brian E.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Mapping Closure Approximation to Conditional Dissipation Rate for Turbulent Scalar Mixing

A novel mapping closure approximation (MCA) technique is developed to construct a model for the conditional dissipation rate (CDR) of a scalar in homogeneous turbulence. It is shown that the CDR model from amplitude mapping closure is incorrect in asymptotic behavior for unsymmetric binary mixing. The correct asymptotic behavior can be described by the CDR model formulated by the MCA technique. The MCA approach is outlined for constructing successive approximation to probability density function (PDF) and conditional moment.

He, Gouwei↗

NASA NTRS2011

Thoughts Without Content are Empty, Intuitions Without Concepts are Blind - Determinism and Contingency Revisited

Was the emergence of life a predictable outcome of chemical evolution on earth? Could evolution produce life very different from ours? These are one of the oldest questions in the field of the origin of life that not only have broad philosophical implications but also impact how we approach the problem from the methodological standpoint. Framing the issue in terms of the dichotomy between contingency and determinism is not a fortunate because these two terms in their conventional meaning are neither mutually exclusive nor jointly exhaustive. Determinism, represented in natural sciences by Newtonian physics, relies on the assumption that every event is causally determined by a chain of previous events. In the context of the origin of life it means that once the initial conditions on the early earth have been specified further evolution follows inevitably. Considering uncertainties about conditions on the prebiotic earth, many plausible sets of initial conditions can be defined, each followed by a separate deterministic trajectory. This conventional understanding of determinism does not admit contingency. Further, it has no implications for evaluating how many sets of initial conditions lead to the emergence of life. It appears that a better framing of the problem is as follows: given plausible sets of initial conditions on the early earth how probable and broadly spread are evolutionary trajectories that lead to life? Instead of undertaking an impossible task of specifying microscopic initial conditions for all components of the system one uses a reduced representation of this system and specify only a small set of essential macroscopic parameters, values (or ranges of values) of which can be identified, inferred or estimated from experiment, theory or historical record. The following evolutionary trajectories are still governed by laws of physics and chemistry but become probabilistic and "contingency" is admitted as variations in other variables in the system. A similar reasoning is common in other fields of science, for example in statistical mechanics. Some trajectories lead to life, perhaps in different forms, whereas others do not. Of our true interest is the ratio of these two outcomes. The issue of determinism does not directly enter the picture. The debate about the likelihood of the emergence of life is quite old. One view holds that the origin of life is an event governed by chance, and the result of so many random events (contingencies) is unpredictable. This view was eloquently expressed by Monod. In his book "Chance or Necessity" he argued that life was a product of "nature's roulette." In an alternative view, expressed in particular by deDuve and Morowitz, the origin of life is considered a highly probable or even inevitable event (although its details need not be determined in every respect). Only in this sense the origin of life can be considered a "deterministic event".

Pohorille, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS2009

The Principle of Energetic Consistency

A basic result in estimation theory is that the minimum variance estimate of the dynamical state, given the observations, is the conditional mean estimate. This result holds independently of the specifics of any dynamical or observation nonlinearity or stochasticity, requiring only that the probability density function of the state, conditioned on the observations, has two moments. For nonlinear dynamics that conserve a total energy, this general result implies the principle of energetic consistency: if the dynamical variables are taken to be the natural energy variables, then the sum of the total energy of the conditional mean and the trace of the conditional covariance matrix (the total variance) is constant between observations. Ensemble Kalman filtering methods are designed to approximate the evolution of the conditional mean and covariance matrix. For them the principle of energetic consistency holds independently of ensemble size, even with covariance localization. However, full Kalman filter experiments with advection dynamics have shown that a small amount of numerical dissipation can cause a large, state-dependent loss of total variance, to the detriment of filter performance. The principle of energetic consistency offers a simple way to test whether this spurious loss of variance limits ensemble filter performance in full-blown applications. The classical second-moment closure (third-moment discard) equations also satisfy the principle of energetic consistency, independently of the rank of the conditional covariance matrix. Low-rank approximation of these equations offers an energetically consistent, computationally viable alternative to ensemble filtering. Current formulations of long-window, weak-constraint, four-dimensional variational methods are designed to approximate the conditional mode rather than the conditional mean. Thus they neglect the nonlinear bias term in the second-moment closure equation for the conditional mean. The principle of energetic consistency implies that, to precisely the extent that growing modes are important in data assimilation, this term is also important.

Cohn, Stephen E.↗

NASA NTRS1979

The condition of a finite Markov chain and perturbation bounds for the limiting probabilities

The inequalities bounding the relative error the norm of w- w squiggly/the norm of w are exhibited by a very simple function of E and A. Let T denote the transition matrix of an ergodic chain, C, and let A = I - T. Let E be a perturbation matrix such that T squiggly = T - E is also the transition matrix of an ergodic chain, C squiggly. Let w and w squiggly denote the limiting probability (row) vectors for C and C squiggly. The inequality is the best one possible. This bound can be significant in the numerical determination of the limiting probabilities for an ergodic chain. In addition to presenting a sharp bound for the norm of w-w squiggly/the norm of w an explicit expression for w squiggly will be derived in which w squiggly is given as a function of E, A, w and some other related terms.

Meyer, C. D., Jr.↗