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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Travel Energy Consumption Uncertainty Based on Inferred Travel Mode and Sensed Travel Length

To properly inform transport policy and infrastructure changes, transportation related metrics need both measured values and uncertainties of those values. Travel monitoring smartphone apps can record people's travel behavior, but trip data quality is limited by sensor errors, user labeling rates and the accuracy of inference algorithms used for travel diary creation. We discuss the use of phone app recorded travel diary data to estimate energy consumption, and propose the use of propagation of variance to find error bars for such estimates. We define energy consumption for one trip as trip length times the energy intensity per distance unit of the travel mode used. We characterize trip length errors with relative error and inferred trip mode errors with confusion matrix columns. The resulting variances of each measurement are then propagated to the final calculated energy consumption. We tested our uncertainty methods on a dataset that used phone app data combined with prompted recall, consisting of 92,234 labeled trips for over 500,000 miles. Accounting for uncertainty using expected energy intensities and variance propagation gives a dataset-wide aggregate energy consumption percent error of about 8%, within one standard deviation from the truth. Future work could involve applying similar methods to other travel diary based metrics.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Warming Reduces the Efficacy of Wet Conditions to Moderate Extreme Heat and Atmospheric Aridity Across the Central Plains

In the literature, dry land surface conditions possess a well-established association with extreme heat and high atmospheric aridity, especially in regions that experience strong land-atmosphere feedbacks. However, few studies have examined whether global warming will impact the ability of wet conditions to constrain high temperatures and atmospheric aridity occurrences. Here we investigate how wet conditions, which we define using precipitation and soil moisture, constrain high temperature and high vapor pressure deficit during the warm season over the Central Plains in North America at different global warming levels (0-3 degrees K). Using a CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, we show that absolute changes in the maximum temperature distribution outweigh the historical cooling effect of high precipitation or soil moisture conditions, reducing the probability of non-extreme maximum temperatures under global warming. Strikingly, the conditional likelihood of non-extreme maximum temperatures falls from 97-98% at baseline conditions to 50-58% at 1 degree of global warming. Once 2 degrees of warming is reached, there is very little probability of constraining extreme maximum temperatures. On the other hand, high precipitation and high soil moisture are able to better retain the ability to constrain concurrent high vapor pressure deficit conditions – moving from 99% at baseline conditions to 81-91% at 1 degree of warming and 26-42% at 2 degrees of warming. With our results, we find that the extent of this retention is dependent on how individual models represent relative changes in the VPD distribution as temperatures warm. Overall, our results highlight the growing vulnerability of the Central North American region to warmer temperatures and drier atmospheric conditions, even during periods of high precipitation and soil moisture.

Extreme heat↗
NASA NTRS1994

Modulations of stratospheric ozone by volcanic eruptions

We have used a time series of aerosol surface based on the measurements of Hofmann to investigate the modulation of total column ozone caused by the perturbation to gas phase chemistry by the reaction N2O5(gas) + H2O(aero) yields 2HNO3(gas) on the surface of stratospheric aerosols. We have tested a range of values for its reaction probability, gamma = 0.02, 0.13, and 0.26 which we compared to unperturbed homogeneous chemistry. Our analysis spans a period from Jan. 1974 to Oct. 1994. The results suggest that if lower values of gamma are the norm then we would expect larger ozone losses for highly enhanced aerosol content that for larger values of gamma. The ozone layer is more sensitive to the magnitude of the reaction probability under background conditions than during volcanically active periods. For most conditions, the conversion of NO2 to HNO3 is saturated for reaction probability in the range of laboratory measurements, but is only absolutely saturated following major volcanic eruptions when the heterogeneous loss dominates the losses of N2O5. The ozone loss due to this heterogeneous reaction increases with the increasing chlorine load. Total ozone losses calculated are comparable to ozone losses reported from TOMS and Dobson data.

Blanchette, Christian↗
DOE OSTI2022

Anisotropic temperature-dependent elastic constants and thermal conductivities of TRISO particle coatings

Tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particles show great promise as a candidate fuel for use in several next-generation high-temperature nuclear reactor designs due to their structural integrity and fuel performance at high temperatures and burnups. Computational codes exist that can simulate TRISO fuel performance characteristics and failure probabilities under extreme conditions which require knowledge of the TRISO coatings’ thermophysical properties. The thermophysical descriptions of the TRISO particle's layers (i.e., buffer, pyrolytic carbon, and silicon carbide) currently used in fuel performance codes, however, assume that many of these properties are constant with respect to temperature or texture. In this paper, we obtain the full elastic stiffness tensors of the carbon and silicon carbide layers, which have transversely isotropic symmetry. Additionally, the calculated elastic properties of each of the coating layers are in remarkable agreement with the current models at room temperature and correct orientations. Additionally, the textured 3C-SiC layer was found to exhibit novel auxetic behavior above 1500 °C. The anisotropic temperature-dependent thermal conductivities of the carbon layers were calculated using acoustical Grüneisen-Debye theory which are in excellent agreement with current models at room temperature and correct orientations. These texture- and temperature-dependent relationships can be incorporated into the thermophysical description of TRISO particles in order to more accurately model fuel performance and failure probabilities under extreme conditions in forthcoming high-fidelity computational simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1996

Phenols in hydrothermal petroleums and sediment bitumen from Guaymas Basin, Gulf of California

The aliphatic, aromatic and polar (NSO) fractions of seabed petroleums and sediment bitumen extracts from the Guaymas Basin hydrothermal system have been analyzed by gas chromatography and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (free and silylated). The oils were collected from the interiors and exteriors of high temperature hydrothermal vents and represent hydrothermal pyrolyzates that have migrated to the seafloor by hydrothermal fluid circulation. The downcore sediments are representative of both thermally unaltered and thermally altered sediments. The survey has revealed the presence of oxygenated compounds in samples with a high degree of thermal maturity. Phenols are one class of oxygenated compounds found in these samples. A group of methyl-, dimethyl- and trimethyl-isoprenoidyl phenols (C27-C29) is present in all of the seabed NSO fractions, with the methyl- and dimethyl-isoprenoidyl phenols occurring as major components, and a trimethyl-isoprenoidyl phenol as a minor component. A homologous series of n-alkylphenols (C13-C33) has also been found in the seabed petroleums. These phenols are most likely derived from the hydrothermal alteration of sedimentary organic matter. The n-alkylphenols are probably synthesized under hydrothermal conditions, but the isoprenoidyl phenols are probably hydrothermal alteration products of natural product precursors. The suites of phenols do not appear to be useful tracers of high temperature hydrothermal processes.

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2020

DEMONSTRATION OF MULTI-PHYSICS EVALUATION OF FUEL ROD BURST PROBABILITY WITH BURNUP EXTENSION UNDER LBLOCA CONDITIONS

Extending the fuel discharge burnup level, e.g., from the current limit of rod averaged discharge burnup limit of 62 GWD/MT to a proposed new limit of 75 GWD/MT, can provide significant economic benefits to the current fleet of operating light water reactors (LWRs). It allows for longer operating cycles and improved resource utilization. The major economic gain of longer operating cycles is attributable to the increased capacity factor resulting from decreased refueling time as a fraction of total operating time, as well as fewer assemblies to be discharged for a given amount of energy produced. The main licensing challenges for higher burnup fuel are to ensure fuel rod safety under design basis accident conditions, especially under large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) and reactivity insertion accident (RIA). In this work, two-year cycle core design for a typical 4-loop pressurized water reactor (PWR) is performed with enrichment increased up to 6% and burnup extended to 75 GWD/MT. The fuel rod burst potential evaluations under large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) conditions are subsequently performed using the multi-physics best estimate plus uncertainty analysis framework LOTUS (LOCA Toolkit for the U.S. LWRs) and the preliminary results are presented.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Spatially Explicit Individual-Based Modeling Approach to Evaluate the Cumulative Effects of Wind Energy Development on the Greater Sage-Grouse: Sensitivity Analysis and Validation of Key Parameters

To address the need for an approach to evaluate cumulative ecological impacts of wind energy development, particularly those on critical wildlife habitats and species, the authors developed a proof-of-concept, landscape-based, spatially explicit individual-based modeling (IBM) framework for populations of the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Albany County, Wyoming, based on published and other available information on the life history of the species. This sage-grouse IBM estimates the spatial and temporal movements of sage-grouse based on modeled effects of habitat characteristics and developments on sage-grouse condition, survivorship, and reproduction. After completing the initial version of the model, we conducted a series of sensitivity analyses of key model parameters and validation of lek occurrences and spatial distributions to better understand performance of the model relative to observed values of important life history characteristics. The parameter sensitivity analysis was conducted as a series of one-factor-at-a-time tests in which the values of selected parameters were individually varied to evaluate the corresponding effects on model output. We examined the model’s response to changes in parameter values to gain insight into the overall robustness of the model, identify key driver parameters, and initiate qualitative validation. Five functions selected for sensitivity analyses were (1) the rate of change in body condition in relationship to habitat suitability index (HSI) of occupied habitat (condition change rate), (2) the effect of competition between individuals with overlapping home ranges expressed as a percentage reduction in HSI (competition factor), (3) value of condition at which survivorship probability is equal to zero (zero survivorship condition), (4) the relationship between female body condition and clutch size, and (5) the relationship between female body condition and nest success. We varied the parameter values to be tested for the sensitivity analysis around the original value used in the model (i.e., tested values were higher and lower than the model’s original value) to examine the effect of this variation on the predicted output of the model. Model outputs evaluated in the sensitivity analysis included (1) predicted age-class distribution (as measured by the percentage of immature individuals within the population); (2) predicted sex ratio; (3) predicted age-sex class distribution (percent of population in each of six age-sex classes, i.e., male and female juveniles, yearlings, and adults); (4) lifespan; (5) population size; and (6) spatial distribution. Of the five parameters analyzed, condition change rate, survivorship, clutch size, and nest success did not substantially affect any of the evaluated model outputs. For the predicted age-class distribution, the percentage of immature individuals predicted by the model for these four parameters ranged from 61.9% to 65.0%, which was reasonable with respect to the reference values of 51.4 to 57.8% in published studies. The ratio of females to males ranged from 1.09 to 1.14, which was comparable to the reference values of 1.2 to 3.0 presented in an existing study. The predicted mean lifespan ranged from 1.62 to 1.74 years, which appears to be reasonable with respect to the reference values of 0.9 to 1.1 years for sharp-tail grouse and greater prairie chickens presented by published studies. The predicted population size ranged from 1,877 to 3,140. This prediction would be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county. The predicted spatial distribution was not substantially affected by the parameter values examined. In our sensitivity analyses, the only tested parameter that had a noticeable effect on model output was competition factor. Over the range of values tested for this parameter, predicted population size exhibited the largest range (from 1,833 to 4,737) of all parameters tested. As the competition factor increased, the predicted population size decreased. This reflects the effect competition had on the number of individuals that could co occur in high-quality habitat patches. Despite this apparently significant effect, the range of values appears to be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1986

Time variations of the distant magnetotail

The likely dimensions of an extended earth magnetotail are investigated by considering various published polar cap and magnetotail observations in light of recent knowledge about magnetosphere behavior under different interplanetary magnetic field conditions. It is argued that the magnetotail is highly time dependent. During southward field conditions the tail probably attains its maximum radius but is subject to 'breaking off' via substorm associated reconnection events which temporarily deplete the flux and reduce the radius. During northward interplanetary conditions more field lines are apt to close near the earth leaving considerably less flux to form any extended tail. Using estimates for both the amount of open polar cap flux and the tail flux at 60 earth radii, it is argued that at 200 earth radii either the tail cross section is elongated in the equatorial plane or the average radius is not more than 25 earth radii.

Fairfield, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Development of a New Data Tool for Computing Launch and Landing Availability with Respect to Surface Weather

The Marshall Space Flight Center Natural Environments Branch has a long history of expertise in the modeling and computation of statistical launch availabilities with respect to weather conditions. Their existing data analysis product, the Atmospheric Parametric Risk Assessment (APRA) tool, computes launch availability given an input set of vehicle hardware and/or operational weather constraints by calculating the climatological probability of exceeding the specified constraint limits, APRA has been used extensively to provide the Space Shuttle program the ability to estimate impacts that various proposed design modifications would have to overall launch availability. The model accounts for both seasonal and diurnal variability at a single geographic location and provides output probabilities for a single arbitrary launch attempt. Recently, the Shuttle program has shown interest in having additional capabilities added to the APRA model, including analysis of humidity parameters, inclusion of landing site weather to produce landing availability, and concurrent analysis of multiple sites, to assist in operational landing site selection. In addition, the Constellation program has also expressed interest in the APRA tool, and has requested several additional capabilities to address some Constellation-specific issues, both in the specification and verification of design requirements and in the development of operations concepts. The combined scope of the requested capability enhancements suggests an evolution of the model beyond a simple revision process. Development has begun for a new data analysis tool that will satisfy the requests of both programs. This new tool, Probabilities of Atmospheric Conditions and Environmental Risk (PACER), will provide greater flexibility and significantly enhanced functionality compared to the currently existing tool.

Burns, K. Lee↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Transition Path Analysis Yields a Statistical Understanding of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in an Idealized Model

Abstract Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting) and characterizing the statistics of events of a given severity (the risk climatology). Each event has a different duration and spatial structure, making it hard to define an objective “average event.” We argue here that transition path theory (TPT), a stochastic process framework, is an appropriate tool for the task. We demonstrate TPT’s capacities on a wave–mean flow model of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) developed by Holton and Mass, which is idealized enough for transparent TPT analysis but complex enough to demonstrate computational scalability. Whereas a recent article (Finkel et al. 2021) studied near-term SSW predictability, the present article uses TPT to link predictability to long-term SSW frequency. This requires not only forecasting forward in time from an initial condition, but also backward in time to assess the probability of the initial conditions themselves. TPT enables one to condition the dynamics on the regime transition occurring, and thus visualize its physical drivers with a vector field called the reactive current . The reactive current shows that before an SSW, dissipation and stochastic forcing drive a slow decay of vortex strength at lower altitudes. The response of upper-level winds is late and sudden, occurring only after the transition is almost complete from a probabilistic point of view. This case study demonstrates that TPT quantities, visualized in a space of physically meaningful variables, can help one understand the dynamics of regime transitions.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
NASA NTRS2004

Real-Time Cloud, Radiation, and Aircraft Icing Parameters from GOES over the USA

A preliminary new, physically based method for realtime estimation of the probability of icing conditions has been demonstrated using merged GOES-10 and 12 data over the continental United States and southern Canada. The algorithm produces pixel-level cloud and radiation properties as well as an estimate of icing probability with an associated intensity rating Because icing depends on so many different variables, such as aircraft size or air speed, it is not possible to achieve 100% success with this or any other type of approach. This initial algorithm, however, shows great promise for diagnosing aircraft icing and putting it at the correct altitude within 0.5 km most of the time. Much additional research must be completed before it can serve as a reliable input for the operational CIP. The delineation of the icing layer vertical boundaries will need to be improved using either the RUC or balloon soundings or ceilometer data to adjust the cloud base height, a change that would require adjustment of the cloud-top altitude also.

Minnis, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS1987

Enhancement of surface-atmosphere fluxes by desert-fringe vegetation through reduction of surface albedo and of soil heat flux

Under the arid conditions prevailing at the end of the dry season in the western Negev/northern Sinai region, vegetation causes a sharp increase relative to bare soil in the daytime sensible heat flux from the surface to the atmosphere. Two mechanisms are involved: the increase in the surface absorptivity and a decrease in the surface heat flux. By increasing the sensible heat flux to the atmosphere through the albedo and the soil heat flux reductions, the desert-fringe vegetation increases the daytime convection and the growth of the planetary boundary layer. Removal of vegetation by overgrazing, by reducing the sensible heat flux, tends to reduce daytime convective precipitation, producing higher probabilities of drought conditions. This assessment of overgrazing is based on observations in the Sinai/Negev, where the soil albedo is high and where overgrazing produces an essential bare soil. Even if the assessment for the Sinai/Negev does not quantitatively apply throughout Africa, the current practice in many African countries of maintaining a large population of grazing animals, can contribute through the mesoscale mechanisms described to reduce daytime convective precipitation, perpetuating higher probabilities of drought. Time-of-day analysis of precipitation in Africa appears worthwhile, to better assess the role of the surface conditions in contributing to drought.

Otterman, J.↗
NASA NTRS1975

A study of carburetor/induction system icing in general aviation accidents

An assessment of the frequency and severity of carburetor/induction icing in general-aviation accidents was performed. The available literature and accident data from the National Transportation Safety Board were collected. A computer analysis of the accident data was performed. Between 65 and 90 accidents each year involve carburetor/induction system icing as a probable cause/factor. Under conditions conducive to carburetor/induction icing, between 50 and 70 percent of engine malfunction/failure accidents (exclusive of those due to fuel exhaustion) are due to carburetor/induction system icing. Since the evidence of such icing may not remain long after an accident, it is probable that the frequency of occurrence of such accidents is underestimated; therefore, some extrapolation of the data was conducted. The problem of carburetor/induction system icing is particularly acute for pilots with less than 1000 hours of total flying time. The severity of such accidents is about the same as any accident resulting from a forced landing or precautionary landing. About 144 persons, on the average, are exposed to death and injury each year in accidents involving carburetor/induction icing as a probable cause/factor.

Obermayer, R. W.↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Arctic LDRD project: What happened?

This presentation overviews results from the 2019 LDRD Reserve project “Diagnosing near-future changes in Arctic sea ice and ocean conditions” and a follow-up 2020 CSES Rapid Response project “Multi- Model Risk Assessment for Arctic Navigability.” We analyzed Arctic simulations from 4 CMIP6 model ensembles (E3SM, CESM-CAM, CESM-WACCM and CESM-DPLE), comparing them with observations. We then applied a machine-learning approach using copulas to produce joint probabilities of adverse conditions along potential shipping transit routes through the Arctic. Here we compare and contrast the different models and examine the utility of the copula approach applied to these data sets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1979

Star and planetary system formation in collapsing, viscous, rotating clouds

The results of a preliminary investigation of several processes that are of interest both for the formation of stars and for the evolution of planetary systems are presented. It is shown that turbulent viscosity is capable of playing an important role in conveying angular momentum over time scales that are short enough to be significant. Meridional circulation can also act in this fashion during some phases of the evolution. This transport may reduce the probability of formation of the rings that have been found by most earlier investigators. Transport and mixing on a faster than cooling time scale should also inhibit usual modes of fragmentation and the present work casts some doubt on the multiple successive fragmentation scenarios that lead from a massive molecular cloud to a collection of roughly solar mass protostars. The conditions that are probable in the disks that would exist at varying phases of collapse are examined and it is concluded that turbulent viscosity would be very important in a pre-solar nebula.

Wiita, P. J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate Change and Changes in Compound Coastal-Riverine Flooding Hazard Along the U.S. Coasts

The cooccurrence of coastal and riverine flooding leads to compound events with substantial impacts on people and property in low-lying coastal areas. Climate change could increase the level of compound flood hazard through higher extreme sea levels and river flows. Here, a bivariate flood hazard assessment method is proposed to estimate compound coastal-riverine frequency under current and future climate conditions. A copula-based approach is used to estimate the joint return period (JRP) of compound floods by incorporating sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in peak river flows into the marginal distributions of flood drivers. Specifically, the changes in JRP of compound major coastal-riverine flooding defined based on simultaneous exceedances above major coastal and riverine thresholds, are explored by midcentury. Subsequently, the increase in the probability of occurrence of at least one compound major coastal-riverine flooding for a given period of time is quantified. The proposed compound flood hazard assessment is conducted at 26 paired tidal-riverine stations along the Contiguous United States coast with long-term data and defined flood thresholds. We show that the northeast Atlantic and the western part of the Gulf coasts are experiencing the highest compound major coastal-riverine flood probability under current conditions. However, future SLR scenarios show the highest frequency amplification along the southeast Atlantic coast. The impact of changes in peak river flows is found to be considerably less than that of SLR. Climate change impacts, especially SLR, may lead to more frequent compound events, which cannot be ignored for future adaptation responses in estuary regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1985

Activated recombinative desorption: A potential component in mechanisms of spacecraft glow

The concept of activated recombination of atomic species on surfaces can explain the production of vibrationally and translationally excited desorbed molecular species. Equilibrium statistical mechanics predicts that the molecular quantum state distributions of desorbing molecules is a function of surface temperature only when the adsorption probability is unity and independent of initial collision conditions. In most cases, the adsorption probability is dependent upon initial conditions such as collision energy or internal quantum state distribution of impinging molecules. From detailed balance, such dynamical behavior is reflected in the internal quantum state distribution of the desorbing molecule. This concept, activated recombinative desorption, may offer a common thread in proposed mechanisms of spacecraft glow. Using molecular beam techniques and equipment available at Los Alamos, which includes a high translational energy 0-atom beam source, mass spectrometric detection of desorbed species, chemiluminescence/laser induced fluorescence detection of electronic and vibrationally excited reaction products, and Auger detection of surface adsorbed reaction products, a fundamental study of the gas surface chemistry underlying the glow process is proposed.

Cross, J. B.↗
NASA NTRS1955

Ditching Investigation of a 1/11-Scale Model of the Chance Vought F7U-3 Airplane, TED NO. NACA DE 360

An investigation was made of a 1/11-scale dynamically similar model of the Chance Vought F7U-3 airplane to study its behavior when ditched. The model was landed in calm water at the Langley tank no. 2 monorail. Various landing attitudes, speeds, and configurations were investigated. The behavior of the model was determined from visual observations, acceleration records, and motion-picture records of the ditchings. Data are presented in tabular form, sequence photographs, time-history acceleration curves, and plots of attitude change against time after contact. From the results of the investigation, it was concluded that the airplane should be ditched at the lowest speed and highest attitude consistent with adequate control. The aft part of the fuselage and the main landing-gear doors will probably be damaged. In a calm-water ditching under these conditions the airplane will probably skip slightly and then porpoise for the remainder of the run. Maximum longitudinal decelerations will be about 3 1/2g and maximum normal accelerations will be about 7g in a landing run of about 500 feet.

Fisher, Lloyd J.↗