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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling and Simulation of Air-Source CO2 Heat Pump Water Heater

Carbon dioxide (CO2) has been widely used as working fluid for the vapor-compression refrigeration systems in large marine device. Due to the potential energy efficiency and the favorable environmental properties of CO2 as a working fluid, CO2 heat pump water heater (HPWH) systems are regarded a promising technology for centralized domestic hot water (DHW) heating in residential and commercial buildings. However, there is still at the early stage of appropriately optimizing and improving the energy performance of CO2 HPWH. This requires CO2 HPWH simulation tools capable of capturing the accurate impact of the emerging compressor, throttle device, and heat exchanger technology on CO2 heat transfer and energy efficiency. In this study, high efficiency components (compressors, pumps, fans, heat exchangers) were identified and applied to the state-of-art CO2 HPWH designs and analyzed their performance by using numerical simulation. This was done by simulating the performance of CO2 HPWH using ACMODEL design model combined with the component models developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for orifice tube, map-based compressor, and tube-in-tube gas cooler. ACMODEL is an equipment design model for CO2-based air conditioners and heat pumps developed by Purdue University to account for the details of each component. The simulated CO2 HPWH performance was then compared with the heat pump water heater using conventional refrigerants.

Gao, Zhiming↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep Learning Potential For Investigation of Chemical Conversion of CO2 at Air-Reactive Deep Eutectic Solvent Interface

Capturing CO2 from air is urgent to battle against the climate change. Traditional CO2 capture by alkaline solution or aqueous amine has high regeneration cost, equipment corrosion, and amine leakage. Deep eutectic solvents (DESs) are promising alternatives with low corrosion, non-toxicity, and biodegradable nature. Functionalized DESs can capture and convert CO2 at low partial pressures. Developing reactive DESs for efficient CO2 capture needs a foundational understanding of the reaction-transport coupling of CO2 at the air-DES interface. In this study, we develop a deep learning potential (DLP) to investigate the absorption and reaction of CO2 at the air-DES interface (DES: 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium 2-cyanopyrrolide ([Emim][2-CNpyr]) and ethylene glycol (EG)). The DLP model allows us to simulate chemical reactions at a lower computational cost with ab initio accuracy. By analyzing reaction free energy surfaces, molecular interactions among CO2, DES components and reaction products, and transport of CO2 through the interface, we identify three main reaction pathways of CO2 at the interface: forming carboxylate with [Emim], carbamate with [2-CNpyr], and carbonate with EG. The mechanistic understanding of CO2 chemisorption at the interface will facilitate the development of novel direct air capture technology using DESs.

Nguyen, Manh Tien↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterization of Pliocene and Miocene Formations in the Wilmington Graben, Offshore Los Angeles, for Large-Scale Geologic Storage of CO2

The project Characterization of Pliocene and Miocene Formations in the Wilmington Graben, Offshore Los Angeles, for Large-Scale Geologic Storage of CO2 is one of 9 site characterization projects that were implemented as part of ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act). Data from this project was used to improve resolution of data in NATCARB in the area of study. Data related to this study has already been incorporated in NATCARB Atlas. The Los Angeles Basin presents an opportunity for large-scale geologic CO2 storage. Due to its large population and historical and geologic setting as one of the most prolific oil and gas producing basins in the United States, the region is home to more than 12 major power plants and oil refineries that produce more than 5 million metric tons of fossil fuel-related CO2 emissions each year. GeoMechanics Technologies worked to characterize the Pliocene and Miocene sediments in the Wilmington Graben, offshore of Los Angeles, California, for high-volume CO2 storage. The Graben is located offshore of the Los Angeles and Long Beach Harbor area, making it accessible yet geologically isolated from the nearby Wilmington oilfield and onshore areas. These sediments span more than 5,000 feet of vertical interval with an estimated storage resource of more than 100 million metric tons of CO2. The project team analyzed and interpreted existing geologic data within the region, including detailed exploration well log data and 2-D and 3-D seismic data. New seismic lines were acquired to fill in current data gap areas and two new characterization wells were drilled and logged. This information was integrated with existing geologic interpretations for adjacent onshore areas to help characterize optimal areas for CO2 storage and seals to safely store CO2. Integrated 3-D geologic and geomechanical models for the Wilmington Graben were developed to simulate the fate and transport of injected CO2 in the subsurface and to assess risks. This project contributed to the understanding of injectivity, containment mechanisms, rate of dissolution and mineralization, and storage capacity of the Wilmington Graben and associated analogous basins. This effort also provided greater insight into the potential for offshore geologic formations to safely and permanently store CO2.

.las↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Long-Term Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage to Reference Power Generation Technologies Using CO2 Avoidance Cost in the U.S.

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) can sequester atmospheric CO2, while producing electricity. The CO2 avoidance cost (CAC) is used to calculate the marginal cost of avoided CO2 emissions for BECCS as compared to other established energy technologies. A comparative analysis using four different reference-case power plants for CAC calculations is performed here to evaluate the CO2 avoidance cost of BECCS implementation. Results from this work demonstrate that BECCS can generate electricity at costs competitive with other neutral emissions technologies, while simultaneously removing CO2 from the atmosphere. Approximately 73% of current coal power plants are approaching retirement by the year 2035 in the U.S. After considering CO2 sequestered from the atmosphere and coal power plant CO2 emissions displaced by BECCS, CO2 emissions can be reduced by 1.4 billion tonnes per year in the U.S. alone at a cost of $88 to $116 per tonne of CO2 removed from the atmosphere, for 10% to 90% of available biomass used, respectively. CAC calculations in this paper indicate that BECCS can help the U.S. and other countries transition to a decarbonized electricity grid, as simulations presented in this paper predict that BECCS power plants operate at lower CACs than coal plants with CCS.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS2012

CO2 Flux Estimation Errors Associated with Moist Atmospheric Processes

Vertical transport by moist sub-grid scale processes such as deep convection is a well-known source of uncertainty in CO2 source/sink inversion. However, a dynamical link between vertical transport, satellite based retrievals of column mole fractions of CO2, and source/sink inversion has not yet been established. By using the same offline transport model with meteorological fields from slightly different data assimilation systems, we examine sensitivity of frontal CO2 transport and retrieved fluxes to different parameterizations of sub-grid vertical transport. We find that frontal transport feeds off background vertical CO2 gradients, which are modulated by sub-grid vertical transport. The implication for source/sink estimation is two-fold. First, CO2 variations contained in moist poleward moving air masses are systematically different from variations in dry equatorward moving air. Moist poleward transport is hidden from orbital sensors on satellites, causing a sampling bias, which leads directly to small but systematic flux retrieval errors in northern mid-latitudes. Second, differences in the representation of moist sub-grid vertical transport in GEOS-4 and GEOS-5 meteorological fields cause differences in vertical gradients of CO2, which leads to systematic differences in moist poleward and dry equatorward CO2 transport and therefore the fraction of CO2 variations hidden in moist air from satellites. As a result, sampling biases are amplified and regional scale flux errors enhanced, most notably in Europe (0.43+/-0.35 PgC /yr). These results, cast from the perspective of moist frontal transport processes, support previous arguments that the vertical gradient of CO2 is a major source of uncertainty in source/sink inversion.

moist atmospheric processes↗
NASA NTRS2016

State of the Carbon Cycle - Consequences of Rising Atmospheric CO2

The rise of atmospheric CO2, largely attributable to human activity through fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, has been dampened by carbon uptake by the ocean and terrestrial biosphere. We outline the consequences of this carbon uptake as direct and indirect effects on terrestrial and oceanic systems and processes for different regions of North America and the globe. We assess the capacity of these systems to continue to act as carbon sinks. Rising CO2 has decreased seawater pH; this process of ocean acidification has impacted some marine species and altered fundamental ecosystem processes with further effects likely. In terrestrial ecosystems, increased atmospheric CO2 causes enhanced photosynthesis, net primary production, and increased water-use efficiency. Rising CO2 may change vegetation composition and carbon storage, and widespread increases in water use efficiency likely influence terrestrial hydrology and biogeochemical cycling. Consequences for human populations include changes to ecosystem services including cultural activities surrounding land use, agricultural or harvesting practices. Commercial fish stocks have been impacted and crop production yields have been changed as a result of rising CO2. Ocean and terrestrial effects are contingent on, and feedback to, global climate change. Warming and modified precipitation regimes impact a variety of ecosystem processes, and the combination of climate change and rising CO2 contributes considerable uncertainty to forecasting carbon sink capacity in the ocean and on land. Disturbance regime (fire and insects) are modified with increased temperatures. Fire frequency and intensity increase, and insect lifecycles are disrupted as temperatures move out of historical norms. Changes in disturbance patterns modulate the effects of rising CO2 depending on ecosystem type, disturbance frequency, and magnitude of events. We discuss management strategies designed to limit the rise of atmospheric CO2 and reduce uncertainty in forecasts of decadal and centennial feedbacks of rising atmospheric CO2 on carbon storage.

Carbon Cycle↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Global Perspective of Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important greenhouse gas affected by human activity. About half of the CO2 emitted from fossil fuel combustion remains in the atmosphere, contributing to rising temperatures, while the other half is absorbed by natural land and ocean carbon reservoirs. Despite the importance of CO2, many questions remain regarding the processes that control these fluxes and how they may change in response to a changing climate. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), launched on July 2, 2014, is NASA's first satellite mission designed to provide the global view of atmospheric CO2 needed to better understand both human emissions and natural fluxes. This visualization shows how column CO2 mixing ratio, the quantity observed by OCO-2, varies throughout the year. By observing spatial and temporal gradients in CO2 like those shown, OCO-2 data will improve our understanding of carbon flux estimates. But, CO2 observations can't do that alone. This visualization also shows that column CO2 mixing ratios are strongly affected by large-scale weather systems. In order to fully understand carbon flux processes, OCO-2 observations and atmospheric models will work closely together to determine when and where observed CO2 came from. Together, the combination of high-resolution data and models will guide climate models towards more reliable predictions of future conditions.

CO2↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Detecting Volcanic Co2 Emissions Hidden in Tropical Volcanic Forests Using Fixed-Wing sUAS

CO2 emissions are among the earliest indicators of subsurface state change and reactivation of volcanic systems and these deep signals reflect in faint diffuse emissions variations on volcanic flanks. Monitoring vast areas of rainforests covering tropical volcanoes is challenging, and space-borne sensors like OCO-2 are not sensitive enough. Fortunately, trees exposed to mild enhancements of CO2 may experience fertilization and build excess CO2 into excess biomass (Cawse-Nicholson, et al. 2018, Biogeosciences). They also process excess CO2 through photosynthesis, measurable by fluorescence (Bogue et al., 2019, Biogeosciences). Furthermore, spaceborne remote sensing instruments have demonstrated increasing NDVI months to years before eruptions, unexplained by other factors (e.g., Houlie et al. 2006, EPSL; Seiler et al. 2017, PLoS One). By providing a means to map large areas of above-canopy CO2 variations over tropical rainforest on the flanks of actively degassing volcanoes, we enable to interpret the signals plants provide in response to excess CO2 with airborne and spaceborne hyperspectral remote sensing methods, including a possible future Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) NASA satellite mission.As a critical step to mature and test this concept, we deployed small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) using a fixed-wing sUAS designed for autonomous operations and long endurance in extreme environments, without causing significant disturbance of the sampled air. We integrated an in-situ sensor to record the CO2 enhancement field above the forest canopy. Test flight results on the flanks of Turrialba volcano in Costa Rica above forest canopies covering known moderate gas seeps demonstrate the sUAS-borne detection and mapping capabilities of above-canopy elevated CO2 gradients. The strong detection capabilities and high detector signal stability resulted from key system design elements including RF shielding, mechanical stabilization, and calibration procedures. This highly robust system is readily applied for diffuse volcanic CO2 emission studies on active volcanoes covered by dense vegetation.

Volcanic↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Electrochemical Recycling of CO2

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a molecule that plays multiple roles in our universe. Currently, its impact on global warming has rightfully given CO2 a label as a harmful waste product that must be amply handled. Nonetheless, under other circumstances, and from other perspectives, CO2 could be regarded as a valuable resource. As example, in nature CO2 is an essential building block in photosynthesis ultimately yielding molecules and materials that we harvest for numerous applications ranging from energy storage and construction to medicines and food. In a similar manner, there is a growing interest to utilize atmospheric CO2 to generate renewable fuels and platform chemicals through artificial processes. These processes can replace fossil based industrial processes on earth alleviating climate impact, but they can also find uses far away from our planet. In space, CO2 is an important source of precious oxygen, however, it can also serve as feedstock for carbon-based molecules and materials that are needed to sustain societies at distant planets such as Mars. In this presentation, I will discuss the contemporary understanding of electrochemical reduction of CO2 for selective production of desired molecules. We will zoom in to the very atomic scale to gain mechanistic understanding of how the structure and composition of the cathode electrode affects product distributions. This information is used as guide in the design of new materials that convert CO2 more efficiently and more selectively. On this basis, opportunities for recycling CO2 under different conditions will be discussed, as will remaining challenges for the ultimate application towards the sustainable human living on earth and in space.

electrochemistry↗
DOE OSTI2023

Carbon Corrosion in CO2 Electrolysis Systems

Driven by concerns over climate change, interest in CO2 conversion technologies has dramatically increased in recent years. By viewing CO2 as a readily available feedstock, many pathways for the production of carbon-neutral fuels and chemicals become available. In converting CO2, low carbon emitting energy sources must be used to ensure a low carbon footprint of the fuel and chemical products. The low-temperature electrochemical conversion of CO2 is a promising technology and allows for direct integration with renewable electricity sources. The development of low-temperature CO2 electrolysis technologies is informed by both PEM fuel cells and water electrolyzers, both of which are at a higher stage of development. However, CO2 electrolysis operates at a much higher cell voltage (-3V) than other low-temperature electrochemical processes, which can have implications for materials compatibility in the electrolyzer device. Carbon corrosion is of particular concern for the anode of CO2 electrolyzers, as a large driving force for corrosion exists due to the high required cell potentials. In this presentation, recent observations will be shared on carbon corrosion of the anode gas diffusion electrode (GDE) in low-temperature alkaline exchange membrane CO2 electrolysis. Results from ex-situ tests designed to isolate the carbon corrosion process for anode GDEs will be shared. These results will provide guidance on materials selection for CO2 utilization MEAs, which need to have a lifetime of several years to ensure industrial viability.

BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

CO2 Capture Using Amines Bound to Silica

One of the main culprits of global warming is the increased amount of carbon dioxide, or CO2, in the atmosphere. NASA's global climate reports a 13% increase in atmospheric CO2 from 2000 to present. Adsorptive CO2 capture by nitrogen groups of amine-containing solvents is one of the most mature technologies deployed in petrochemical and natural gas processing plants to purify industrial gases. However, key challenges in widespread application include solvent induced reactor corrosion, amine degradation, and high regeneration energy for repeated cycling. An alternative approach is to immobilize amines on solid supports. Key performance metrics of solid amine-based CO2 adsorbents include the CO2 adsorption capacity and stability to degradation over hundreds of thousands of regeneration cycles. Our research aims to develop descriptors for CO2 capture capacity and stability against oxygen-induced degradation for amines bound to porous silica supports using experimental and computational techniques. We experimentally measure the change in CO2-uptake using solid amine adsorbents with varying chemical compositions and exposure to varying gas streams and use high-performance computers to simulate the nature and strength of CO2-adsorption and oxidative degradation reaction mechanisms. Insights from our work can facilitate the development of stable solid amine adsorbents for large-scale CO2 capture processes.

amines↗
DOE OSTI2025

Photo-Swing CO2 Capture Using a Branched Polyethylenimine As Sorbents and TiN Light Absorber

Using branched polyethylenimine as the sorbent material for dilute CO2 capture, a photo-swing method is demonstrated in an industrially relevant support architecture using titanium nitride (TiN) nanosized light absorbers coupled with low-power LEDs with irradiances up to 420 mW cm-2. The photo-swing desorption process is applied to dry and humid streams of 400 ppm CO2 diluted in N2. Consistent with known sorption mechanisms for aminopolymers, humid CO2 streams increased the CO2 uptake, in our case by ~30%. The photo-swing CO2 capture desorbed ~83% and ~100% CO2 compared to thermally-driven desorption over the same period for a dry and humid CO2 stream, respectively. The photo-swing CO2 capture exhibits robust performance over >90 cycles without significant signs of photo(thermal) induced sorbent degradation. This work lays the groundwork for photo-swing DAC technology as a scalable, energy-efficient solution for CO2 capture, well-suited for modular systems in remote locations utilizing intermittent renewable energy sources.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

CO2 hydrate crystal thickening, morphology, and Raman spectroscopy in a microfluidic device

Gas hydrates are a solid, crystalline form of water that often form at low temperatures and high pressures. Carbon dioxide (CO2) hydrates may form during carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) processes. These solid compounds may form in CO2 pipelines, potentially leading to a full blockage and process shutdown for plug removal. On the other hand, formation of CO2 hydrates may be desired for CO2 capture and separation. In either case, understanding the growth behavior and nature of the hydrates is vital to managing these CCS processes. Using a high-pressure, transparent microfluidic reactor, the crystalline film thickening of CO2 hydrates was observed and measured through visual microscopy and Raman spectroscopy. The impact of subcooling, pressure, and CO2 flow rate was investigated, and only CO2 flow rate was found to have a significant impact on the overall thickness of the film. Visual observations and Raman spectroscopy measurements confirmed that two distinct hydrate layers formed during thickening, one which was more porous than the other. The capillary-like channels in the porous layer indicated a mechanism for mass transfer of water through the hydrate layer. A model was developed based on this observation, and it was fit to the thickening data in order to obtain mass transfer coefficients. Results of this study can be applied to CO2 hydrate formation in pipelines and near porous media used for CO2 capture.

Wadsworth, Lindsey [Colorado School of Mines, Gold↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ethane-CO2 Mixture Adsorption in Silicalite: Influence of Tortuosity and Connectivity of Pores on Selectivity

Selective adsorption using nanoporous materials is an efficient strategy for separating gas mixtures. In a nanoporous material, pores can exist in different shapes and can have different degrees of inter-connectivity. In recent studies, both pore connectivity and tortuosity have been found to affect the adsorption and dynamical properties of ethane and CO2 in silicalite differently. Here, using Monte Carlo simulations, we investigate if these two attributes can affect the selective adsorption of one component from a mixture of ethane and CO2 in silicalite. For this, the adsorption of an equimolar mixture of ethane and CO2 is simulated in 12 models of silicalite—SnZm (n, m = 0, 1, 2, 3 or 4; with n and m denoting, respectively, the fraction (out of 4) of straight and zigzag channels of silicalite that are available for adsorption)—differing in degrees of pore connectivity and tortuosity. The adsorption selectivity in this system is found to exhibit a reversal with the adsorption dominated by ethane at low pressures (below ~1 atm) and by CO2 at higher pressures (above ~10 atm). Pore connectivity is found to suppress the selective adsorption of CO2 at higher pressures and also shifts the selectivity reversal to higher pressures. The selectivity reversal results from a competition between the polarizability-affected adsorption at lower pressures and efficient packing at higher pressures. The efficient packing of CO2 is a compounded effect resulting from the larger effective pore volume available for CO2 due to its stronger interaction with the pore surface and smaller molecular volume. CO2 molecules show a preference to adsorb in non-tortuous pores, and this preference is found to be stronger in the presence of ethane. The effects of pore connectivity and tortuosity elucidated here should be applicable to a wide range of natural and engineered nanoporous materials, and this knowledge could be used to identify materials with better capability for separating and storing CO2 based on their pore attributes.

Gautam, Siddharth (ORCID:0000000314435382)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Preparation and Characterization of Materials for Low- to Intermediate-Temperature CO2 Adsorption

Global carbon dioxide emissions are rising and the use of fossil fuels in several sectors are the leading causes. As global population and economies continue to grow significantly, the most practical method of lowering such emissions is to capture CO2. Although other technologies are more developed, adsorption is very promising and has attracted much attention. To ensure this technology’s success, it is essential to have suitable CO2 adsorbent materials. In this work, several new hydrotalcites (HTs) with different initial concentrations of ion precursors were prepared for the first time by the co-precipitation method—it was possible to verify that the ion concentrations influence the characteristics of the materials. The prepared HTs were characterized by thermogravimetric analysis (TG), X-Ray diffraction (XRD), surface area measurements and temperature-programmed desorption of CO2 (TPD-CO2) to relate their CO2 capture capacity to their physicochemical properties; the CO2 adsorption equilibrium isotherms were determined at 35 and 300 °C for the prepared samples, as well as for some commercial materials: magnesium oxide, calcium oxide, aluminium oxide and Zeolite 13X. After determining which materials present the best CO2 adsorption capacity, these were submitted to adsorption-desorption cycles to study their stability. The main objective of the work was to prepare and study different CO2 adsorbents for processes that are carried out at low and intermediate temperatures. From the experimental results, it was possible to conclude that the Zeolite 13X showed the best capacity at 35 °C, 3.38 mmol·g−1 (@ pCO2 = 1 bar), and a prepared calcined HT (c-HT2) was the best at 300 °C, 0.97 mmol·g−1 (@ pCO2 = 1 bar). Moreover, it seems there is an optimum initial concentration of the ions’ solutions for the tested HTs, which depends on the final application—c-HT1 showed a better capacity at 35 °C and c-HT2 at 300 °C. From the adsorption-desorption cycles—performed at 35 and 300 °C with the best materials using a magnetic suspension microbalance at 1 bar of CO2 partial pressure —, a working cyclic capacity of 2.69 mmol∙g−1 was achieved by the Zeolite at 35 °C; in turn, c-HT2 showed a working cyclic capacity of 0.79 mmol∙g−1 at 300 °C.

Figueiredo, Anabela↗
DOE OSTI2024

Role of Hydrogen as Fuel in Decarbonizing US Clinker Manufacturing for Cement Production: Costs and CO2 Emissions Reduction Potentials

As a low-carbon fuel, feedstock, and energy source, hydrogen is expected to play a vital role in the decarbonization of high-temperature process heat during the pyroprocessing steps of clinker production in cement manufacturing. However, to accurately assess its potential for reducing CO2 emissions and the associated costs in clinker production applications, a techno-economic analysis and a study of facility-level CO2 emissions are necessary. Assuming that up to 20% hydrogen can be blended in clinker fuel mix without significant changes in equipment configuration, this study evaluates the potential reduction in CO2 emissions (scopes 1 and 2) and cost implications when replacing current carbon-intensive fuels with hydrogen. Using the direct energy substitution method, we developed an Excel-based model of clinker production, considering different hydrogen–blend scenarios. Hydrogen from steam methane reformer (gray) and renewable-based electrolysis (green) are considered as sources of hydrogen fuel for blend scenarios of 5%–20%. Metrics such as the cost of cement production, facility-level CO2 emissions, and cost of CO2 avoided were computed. Results show that for hydrogen blends (gray or green) between 5% and 20%, the cost of cement increases by 0.6% to 16%, with only a 0.4% to 6% reduction in CO2 emissions. When the cost of CO2 avoided was computed, the extra cost required to reduce CO2 emissions is $229 to $358/ metric ton CO2. In summary, although green hydrogen shows promise as a low-carbon fuel, its adoption for decarbonizing clinker production is currently impeded by costs.

Okeke, Ikenna J.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Changes in the High-latitude Ocean as Possible Causes of Atmospheric CO2 Variations

Measurements on air enclosed in old polar ice have indicated that the atmospheric CO2 concentration was ca. 50 to 70 ppm lower in late glacial times than during the Holocene. Similar measurements performed on samples from a Greenland ice core, dating ca. 30,000 to 40,000 B.P., and have yielded evidence of several CO2 oscillations with an amplitude of ca. 50 ppm. Each change lasted on the order of a few centuries. A mechanism by which circulation changes in the high-latitude ocean could lead to rapid variations in atmospheric CO2 is proposed. In the Antarctic Ocean a slowing down of the vertical mixing would imply a smaller upward flux of sigma CO2 and nutrients. Assuming constant productivity, sigma CO2 and nutrients would be more completely used which would imply lower CO2 in these high-latitude surface waters. In areas with a warm surface, a slowing down of the circulation would not have a direct impact on CO2 because productivity would automatically decrease by the same factor as the upwelling rate of nutrients. Studies with a simple box model of the ocean-atmosphere system suggest that a suddent decrease by a factor of 2 of the water exchange between the surface and deep sea in high latitudes could lead to a CO2 decrease of ca. 40 to 50 ppm with a time constant of ca. 200 years. Deep-sea sediment studies indicate rapid changes in the high-latitude surface conditions of the North Atlantic and the Antarctic Oceans at the end of the last glaciation. Studies of carbon isotope ratios should help ascertain whether this proposed mechanism was indeed responsible for the CO2 variation.

Siegenthaler, U.↗