Understanding and Constraining the Midlatitude Cloud Optical Depth Feedback in Climate Models (Final Report)
The objectives of this investigation are to provide a deeper understanding of the brightening of middle and high latitude clouds that occurs in many climate models as the climate warms, and to better understand why models give varying estimates of the strength of this negative feedback. The investigation may also provide new information on why models are deficient in their simulation of the present day clouds in these regions. The analysis will reveal which models simulate current clouds most realistically in the regions of interest, and relate this to the strength of the cloud feedbacks in the models. This will improve the uncertainty quantification of climate simulations and will provide theoretical understanding potentially leading to increased reliability of climate change projections. This will enhance the predictive understanding of the Earth system by analyzing the natural and anthropogenic components of global climate change in models. The primary methods involve the study of the clouds in the suite of CMIP5 model climate simulations and comparison of clouds in climate simulations with data from satellite measurement systems, with a particular emphasis on mixed-phase cloud physics, for which ice and water are present simultaneously. State-of-the-art climate model feedback analysis will be combined with new and more comprehensive observations of clouds available from modern measurement systems. Novel use of model simulations in combination with observations enables a deeper understanding of the role of clouds in climate change. Metrics that facilitate model-to-model and model-to-observation comparisons related to mixed-phase cloud physics will be developed and used to highlight challenges and opportunities for improving the state-of-the-science models. This investigation is a collaboration between the University of Washington, where the data work is concentrated and LLNL where the model data and the tools and expertise to do cloud feedback analysis are located. The grant supported the work of 3 different graduate students at different times (McCoy, Wall and Berry) Post-doctoral researcher Blaž Gasparini was also partially supported on this grant and led our collaboration with PNNL scientists. PNNL scientists also collaborated in the work of graduate student Wall (Po-Lun Ma). The main results of our research efforts are reported in 6 papers and 1 book chapter that were supported by this grant.