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Use of Collocated KWAJEX Satellite, Aircraft, and Ground Measurements for Understanding Ambiguities in TRMM Radiometer Rain Profile Algorithm

Coordinated ground, aircraft, and satellite observations are analyzed from the 1999 TRMM Kwajalein Atoll field experiment (KWAJEX) to better understand the relationships between cloud microphysical processes and microwave radiation intensities in the context of physical evaluation of the Level 2 TRMM radiometer rain profile algorithm and uncertainties with its assumed microphysics-radiation relationships. This talk focuses on the results of a multi-dataset analysis based on measurements from KWAJEX surface, air, and satellite platforms to test the hypothesis that uncertainties in the passive microwave radiometer algorithm (TMI 2a12 in the nomenclature of TRMM) are systematically coupled and correlated with the magnitudes of deviation of the assumed 3-dimensional microphysical properties from observed microphysical properties. Re-stated, this study focuses on identifying the weaknesses in the operational TRMM 2a12 radiometer algorithm based on observed microphysics and radiation data in terms of over-simplifications used in its theoretical microphysical underpinnings. The analysis makes use of a common transform coordinate system derived from the measuring capabilities of the aircraft radiometer used to survey the experimental study area, i.e., the 4-channel AMPR radiometer flown on the NASA DC-8 aircraft. Normalized emission and scattering indices derived from radiometer brightness temperatures at the four measuring frequencies enable a 2-dimensional coordinate system that facilities compositing of Kwajalein S-band ground radar reflectivities, ARMAR Ku-band aircraft radar reflectivities, TMI spacecraft radiometer brightness temperatures, PR Ku-band spacecraft radar reflectivities, bulk microphysical parameters derived from the aircraft-mounted cloud microphysics laser probes (including liquid/ice water contents, effective liquid/ice hydrometeor radii, and effective liquid/ice hydrometeor variances), and rainrates derived from any of the individual ground, aircraft, or satellite algorithms applied to the radar or radiometer measurements, or their combination. The results support the study's underlying hypothesis, particularly in context of ice phase processes, in that the cloud regions where the 2a12 algorithm's microphysical database most misrepresents the microphysical conditions as determined by the laser probes, are where retrieved surface rainrates are most erroneous relative to other reference rainrates as determined by ground and aircraft radar. In reaching these conclusions, TMI and PR brightness temperatures and reflectivities have been synthesized from the aircraft AMPR and ARMAR measurements with the analysis conducted in a composite framework to eliminate measurement noise associated with the case study approach and single element volumes obfuscated by heterogeneous beam filling effects. In diagnosing the performance of the 2a12 algorithm, weaknesses have been found in the cloud-radiation database used to provide microphysical guidance to the algorithm for upper cloud ice microphysics. It is also necessary to adjust a fractional convective rainfall factor within the algorithm somewhat arbitrarily to achieve satisfactory algorithm accuracy.

Smith, Eric A.↗

Statistical Analyses of Satellite Cloud Object Data From CERES: Boundary-layer Cloud Objects During 1998 El Nino - Part 4

Three boundary-layer cloud object types, stratus, stratocumulus and cumulus, that occurred over the Pacific Ocean during January-August 1998, are identified from the CERES (Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System) single scanner footprint (SSF) data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite. This study emphasizes the differences and similarities in the characteristics of each cloud-object type between the tropical and subtropical regions and among different size categories and among small geographic areas. Both the frequencies of occurrence and statistical distributions of cloud physical properties are analyzed. In terms of frequencies of occurrence, stratocumulus clouds dominate the entire boundary layer cloud population in all regions and among all size categories. Stratus clouds are more prevalent in the subtropics and near the coastal regions, while cumulus clouds are relatively prevalent over open ocean and the equatorial regions, particularly, within the small size categories. The largest size category of stratus cloud objects occurs more frequently in the subtropics than in the tropics and has much larger average size than its cumulus and stratocumulus counterparts. Each of the three cloud object types exhibits small differences in statistical distributions of cloud optical depth, liquid water path, TOA albedo and perhaps cloud-top height, but large differences in those of cloud-top temperature and OLR between the tropics and subtropics. Differences in the sea surface temperature (SST) distributions between the tropics and subtropics influence some of the cloud macrophysical properties, but cloud microphysical properties and albedo for each cloud object type are likely determined by (local) boundary-layer dynamics and structures. Systematic variations of cloud optical depth, TOA albedo, cloud-top height, OLR and SST with cloud object sizes are pronounced for the stratocumulus and stratus types, which are related to systematic variations of the strength of inversion with cloud object sizes, produced by large-scale subsidence. The differences in cloud macrophysical properties over small regions are significantly larger than those of cloud microphysical properties and TOA albedo, suggesting a greater control of (local) large-scale dynamics and other factors on cloud object properties. When the three cloud object types are combined, the relative population among the three types is the most important factor for determining the cloud object properties in a Pacific transect where the transition of boundary-layer cloud types takes place.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗

LGM Paleoclimate Constraints Inform Cloud Parameterizations and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity in CESM2

The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) simulates a high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS > 5°C) and a Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) that is substantially colder than proxy temperatures. In this study, we examine the role of cloud parameterizations in simulating the LGM cooling in CESM2. Through substituting different versions of cloud schemes in the atmosphere model, we attribute the excessive LGM cooling to the new CESM2 schemes of cloud microphysics and ice nucleation. Further exploration suggests that removing an inappropriate limiter on cloud ice number (NoNimax) and decreasing the time-step size (substepping) in cloud microphysics largely eliminate the excessive LGM cooling. NoNimax produces a more physically consistent treatment of mixed-phase clouds, which leads to an increase in cloud ice content and a weaker shortwave cloud feedback over mid-to-high latitudes and the Southern Hemisphere subtropics. Microphysical substepping further weakens the shortwave cloud feedback. Based on NoNimax and microphysical substepping, we have developed a paleoclimate-calibrated CESM2 (PaleoCalibr), which simulates well the observed twentieth century warming and spatial characteristics of key cloud and climate variables. PaleoCalibr has a lower ECS (∼4°C) and a 20% weaker aerosol-cloud interaction than CESM2. PaleoCalibr represents a physically more consistent treatment of cloud microphysics than CESM2 and is a valuable tool in climate change studies, especially when a large climate forcing is involved. Our study highlights the unique value of paleoclimate constraints in informing the cloud parameterizations and ultimately the future climate projection.

equilibrium climate sensitivity↗

Significance of aerosol radiative effect in energy balance control on global precipitation change

Historical changes of global precipitation in the 20th century simulated by a climate model are investigated. The results simulated with alternate configurations of cloud microphysics are analyzed in the context of energy balance controls on global precipitation, where the latent heat changes associated with the precipitation change is nearly balanced with changes to atmospheric radiative cooling. The atmospheric radiative cooling is dominated by its clear-sky component, which is found to correlate with changes to both column water vapor and aerosol optical depth (AOD). The water vapor-dependent component of the clear-sky radiative cooling is then found to scale with global temperature change through the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. This component results in a tendency of global precipitation increase with increasing temperature at a rate of approximately 2%K -1 . Another component of the clear-sky radiative cooling, which is well correlated with changes to AOD, is also found to vary in magnitude among different scenarios with alternate configurations of cloud microphysics that controls the precipitation efficiency, a major factor influencing the aerosol scavenging process that can lead to different aerosol loadings. These results propose how different characteristics of cloud microphysics can cause different aerosol loadings that in turn perturb global energy balance to significantly change global precipitation. This implies a possible coupling of aerosol–cloud interaction with aerosol–radiation interaction in the context of global energy balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Causes of Reduced Climate Sensitivity in E3SM From Version 1 to Version 2

The effective climate sensitivity in the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) has decreased from 5.3 K in version 1 to 4.0 K in version 2. This reduction is mainly due to a weaker positive cloud feedback that leads to a stronger negative radiative feedback. Present-day atmosphere-only experiments with uniform 4 K sea surface temperature warming are used to separate the contributions of individual model modifications to the reduced cloud feedback. We find that the reduced cloud feedback is mostly driven by changes over the tropical marine low cloud regime, mainly related to a new trigger function for the deep convection scheme and modifications in the cloud microphysics scheme. The new trigger function helps weaken the low cloud reduction by increasing the cloud water detrainment at low levels from deep convection under warming. Changes to the formula of autoconversion rate from liquid to rain and an introduced minimum cloud droplet number concentration threshold in cloud microphysical calculations help sustain clouds against dissipation by suppressing precipitation generation with warming. In the midlatitudes, the increased Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen (WBF) efficiency strongly reduces present-day liquid water and leads to a stronger negative cloud optical depth feedback. The reduced trade cumulus cloud feedback in v2 is closer to estimates from recent observational and large-eddy modeling studies but might not be due to the right physical reasons. The reduced mid-latitude cloud feedback may be more plausible because more realistic present-day mixed-phase clouds are produced through the change in the WBF efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aerosol Impacts on California Winter Clouds and Precipitation during CalWater 2011: Local Pollution versus Long-Range Transported Dust

Mineral dust aerosols often observed over California in winter and spring, associated with long-range transport from Asia and Sahara, have been linked to enhanced precipitation based on observations. Local anthropogenic pollution, on the other hand, was shown in previous observational and modeling studies to reduce precipitation. Here we incorporate recent developments in ice nucleation parameterizations to link aerosols with ice crystal formation in a spectral-bin cloud microphysical model coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, to examine the relative and combined impacts of dust and local pollution particles on cloud properties and precipitation type and intensity. Simulations are carried out for two cloud cases with contrasting meteorology and cloud dynamics that occurred on February 16 (FEB16) and March 02 (MAR02) from the CalWater 2011 field campaign. In both cases, observations show the presence of dust and biological particles in a relative pristine environment. The simulated cloud microphysical properties and precipitation show reasonable agreement with aircraft and surface measurements. Model sensitivity experiments indicate that in the pristine environment, the dust and biological aerosol layers increase the accumulated precipitation by 10-20% from the Central Valley to the Sierra Nevada Mountains for both FEB16 and MAR02 due to a ~40% increase in snow formation, validating the observational hypothesis. Model results show that local pollution increases precipitation over the windward slope of the mountains by few percent due to increased snow formation when dust is present but reduces precipitation by 5-8% if dust is removed on FEB16. The effects of local pollution on cloud microphysics and precipitation strongly depend on meteorology including the strength of the Sierra Barrier Jet, and cloud dynamics. This study further underscores the importance of the interactions between local pollution, dust, and environmental conditions for assessing aerosol effects on cold season precipitation in California.

aerosol impacts↗

Observed Relationships Between Cloud Droplet Effective Radius and Biogenic Gas Concentrations in Summertime Marine Stratocumulus Over the Eastern North Atlantic

Abstract Biogenic gases are a prominent component of the summertime marine boundary layer (MBL) over the Eastern North Atlantic. One of these gases, dimethyl sulfide (DMS), can produce sulfate cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) that, in theory, can brighten clouds through photolysis, and produces a reaction product, methane sulfonic acid (MSA). It is also possible that DMS can interact with sea‐salt or other marine aerosols changing their CCN activation spectrum, which could also modify cloud microphysical structure. Data collected aboard the G1 aircraft during the Aerosol Cloud Experiment Eastern North Atlantic (ACE‐ENA) in well‐mixed and decoupled marine boundary layers (MBLs) were used to examine relationships between the cloud droplet effective radii, , and the concentrations of DMS and MSA in constant cloud liquid water content (LWC) bins. A weak but statistically significant negative correlation was observed between CCN concentration and in most LWC bins, regardless of the source of the CCN, while a weak but statistically significant positive correlation between and DMS was observed. No correlation between the cloud droplet number concentration and DMS was found. The presence of MSA indicated that DMS‐to‐sulfate photolysis was likely occurring, but data sparsity prevented a statistically significant conclusion regarding the relationship between MSA and . Data sparsity in decoupled conditions also prevented statistically significant conclusions. To properly address biogenic gas impacts on cloud microphysics, it is recommended that aircraft data be supplemented by long‐term biogenic gas measurements at the surface in marine locations with appropriate remote and in‐situ cloud sensing capabilities, and the analysis limited to well‐mixed MBL's.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vertical variation of turbulent entrainment mixing processes in marine stratocumulus clouds using high-resolution digital holography

Marine stratocumulus clouds contribute signi?cantly to the Earth’s radiation budget due to their extensive coverage and high albedo. Yet, subgrid variability in cloud properties such as aerosol concentration, droplet number and precipitation rates lead to considerable errors in global climate models. While these clouds usually have small vertical ex-tent, turbulent entrainment-mixing and precipitation can generate signi?cant variations in droplet number, size and relative dispersion with altitude. In this paper, we analyze turbulent entrainment-mixing processes and the variability in cloud microphysical properties as a function of height within a warm marine stratocumulus cloud layer over the Eastern North Atlantic. We use high resolution airborne holographic measurements and compare them with local turbulence measurements. We ?nd that entrainment-mixing is primarily inhomogeneous near cloud top leading to larger droplet sizes and homogeneous near cloud base leading to smaller droplet sizes. Further analysis of Damk¨ohler number measurements are able to explain the mixing mechanisms at di?erent cloud heights, reinforcing the importance of turbulent mixing and microphysical time scales in deter-mining cloud microphysics.

Desai, Neel↗

microbasekaplus.c1

This microbasekaplus datastream is produced by re-writed micorbaseka vap (microbasekaplus) in python under ADI framewrok, and added uncertainties for the microphysics. The original Microbase VAP was developed in 2002. The primary purpose of producing this VAP was to provide the required microphysical values for input to the Broad Band Heating Rate Profiles (BBHRP) VAP in order to generate estimations of radiative heating rates. It served the Radiatively Important Parameters Best Estimate (RIBPE) VAP in the capacity of providing baseline cloud microphysical values as input. Microbase produces cloud microphysical properties based on cloud radar measurements taken at all fixed ARM sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Intercomparison of Microphysical Retrieval Algorithms for Upper Tropospheric Ice Clouds

The large horizontal extent, location in the cold upper troposphere, and ice composition make cirrus clouds important modulators of the earth's radiation budget and climate. Cirrus cloud microphysical properties are difficult to measure and model because they are inhomogeneous in nature and their ice crystal size distribution and habit are not well characterized. Accurate retrievals of cloud properties are crucial for improving the representation of cloud scale processes in large-scale models and for accurately predicting the earth's future climate. A number of passive and active remote sensing retrieval algorithms exist for estimating the microphysical properties of upper tropospheric clouds. We believe significant progress has been made in the evolution of these retrieval algorithms in the last decade, however, there is room for improvement. Members of the Atmospheric Radiation measurement program (ARM) Cloud properties Working Group are involved in an intercomparison of optical depth(tau), ice water path, and characteristic particle size in clouds retrieved using ground-based instruments. The goals of this intercomparison are to evaluate the accuracy of state-of-the-art algorithms, quantify the uncertainties, and make recommendations for improvement.

Comstock, Jennifer M.↗

Characterization of 3D Cirrus Cloud and Radiation Fields Using ARS/AIRS/MODIS data and its Application to Climate Model

During the report period, we have made the following research accomplishments. First, we performed analysis for a number of MODIS scenes comprising of heavy dust events and ice clouds, covering regions of frequent dust outbreaks in East Asia, Middle East, and West Africa, as well as areas associated with long-range dust transports over the Equatorial Tropical Atlantic Ocean. These scenes contain both dust/aerosols and clouds. We collected suitable aerosol/ice-cloud data, correlated ice cloud and aerosol parameters by means of statistical analysis, and interpreted resulting correlation trends based on the physical principles governing cloud microphysics. Aerosol and cloud optical depths and cloud effective particle size inferred from MODIS for selected domains were analyzed from which the parameters including dust aerosol number concentration, ice cloud water path, and ice particle number concentration were subsequently derived. We illustrated that the Twomey (solar albedo) effect can be statistically quantified based on the slope of best-fit straight lines in the correlation study. Analysis of aerosol and cloud retrieval products revealed that for all cases, the region with a larger dust aerosol optical depth is always characterized by a smaller cloud particle size, consistent with the Twomey hypothesis for aerosol-cloud interactions. Second, we developed mean correlation curves with uncertainties associated with small ice-crystal concentration observations for the mean effective ice crystal size (De) and ice water content (IWC) by dividing the atmosphere into three characteristic regions: Tropics cirrus, Midlatitude cirrus, including a temperature classification to improve correlation, and Arctic ice clouds. We illustrated that De has a high correlation with IWC based on theoretical consideration and analysis of thousands of observed ice crystal data obtained from a number of ARM-DOE field campaigns and other experiments. The correlation has the form: ln(De) = a + b ln(IWC) + c ((ln(IWC))2, where a, b, and c are fitting coefficients and are functions of three regions. We demonstrated that this correlation can be effectively incorporated in GCMs and climate models that predict IWC - a significant advance in ice microphysics parameterization for interactive cloud-radiation analysis and feedback. Substantial July mean differences are shown in the OLR (W/m2) and precipitation (mm/day) patterns between UCLA GCM simulations based on Des determined from the De-IWC correlations and the control run using a fixed ice crystal size. Third, in order to improve the computation of spectral radiative transfer processes in the WRF model, we developed a consistent and efficient radiation scheme that can better resolve the spectral bands, determine the cloud optical properties, and provide more reliable and accurate radiative heating fields. In the newly developed radiation module, we have implemented in WRF a modified and improved version referred to as the Fu-Liou-Gu scheme, which includes a combination of delta-four-stream and delta-two-stream approximations for solar and IR flux calculations, respectively. This combination has been proven to be computationally efficient and at the same time to produce a high degree of accuracy. The incorporation of nongray gaseous absorption in multiple scattering atmospheres was based on the correlated k-distribution method. The solar and IR spectra are divided into 6 and 12 bands, respectively, according to the location of absorption bands of H2O, CO2, O3, CH4, N2O, and CFCs. We further included absorption by the water vapor continuum and a number of minor absorbers in the solar spectrum leading to an additional absorption of solar flux in a clear atmosphere on the order of 1-3 W/m2. Additionally, we incorporated the ice microphysics parameterization that includes an interactive mean effective ice crystal size in association with radiation parameterizations. The Fu-Liou-Gu scheme is an ideal tool for the simulation of radiative transfer and ice microphysics within the domain of WRF. It is particularly useful for studying direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects associated with ice cloud formation. The newly implemented radiation module has been demonstrated to work well in WRF and can be effectively used for studies related to cirrus cloud formation and evolution as well as aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions. With the newly implemented radiation scheme, the simulations of cloud cover and ice water path have been improved for cirrus clouds, with a more consistent comparison with the corresponding MODIS observations, especially for optically thin cirrus with an improvement of about 20% in the simulated mean ice water path.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Collaborative Research: Quantifying the Uncertainties of Aerosol Indirect Effects and Impacts on Decadal-Scale Climate Variability in NCAR CAM5 and CESM1

The goal of this proposed project is to assess the climatic importance and sensitivity of aerosol indirect effect (AIE) to cloud and aerosol processes and feedbacks, which include organic aerosol hygroscopicity, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activation kinetics, Giant CCN, cloud-scale entrainment, ice nucleation in mixed-phase and cirrus clouds, and treatment of subgrid variability of vertical velocity. A key objective was to link aerosol, cloud microphysics and dynamics feedbacks in CAM5 with a suite of internally consistent and integrated parameterizations that provide the appropriate degrees of freedom to capture the various aspects of the aerosol indirect effect. The proposal integrated new parameterization elements into the cloud microphysics, moist turbulence and aerosol modules used by the NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5). The CAM5 model was then used to systematically quantify the uncertainties of aerosol indirect effects through a series of sensitivity tests with present-day and preindustrial aerosol emissions. New parameterization elements were developed as a result of these efforts, and new diagnostic tools & methodologies were also developed to quantify the impacts of aerosols on clouds and climate within fully coupled models. Observations were used to constrain key uncertainties in the aerosol-cloud links. Advanced sensitivity tools were developed and implements to probe the drivers of cloud microphysical variability with unprecedented temporal and spatial scale. All these results have been published in top and high impact journals (or are in the final stages of publication). This proposal has also supported a number of outstanding graduate students.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evidence for Tropopause Layer Moistening by Convection During CRYSTAL-FACE

Measurements and analysis of the impact of deep convection on tropopause layer moisture are easily confounded by difficulties making precise observations with sufficient spatial coverage before and after convective events and difficulties distinguishing between changes due to local convection versus large-scale advection. The interactions between cloud microphysics and dynamics in the convective transport of moisture into the tropopause layer also result in a sufficiently complex and poorly characterized system to allow for considerable freedom in theoretical models of stratosphere-troposphere exchange. In this work we perform detailed large-eddy simulations with an explicit cloud microphysics model to study the impact of deep convection on tropopause layer moisture profiles observed over southern Florida during CRYSTALFACE. For four days during the campaign (July 11, 16, 28, and 29) we initialize a 100-km square domain with temperature and moisture profiles measured prior to convection at the PARSL ground site, and initiate convection with a warm bubble that produces an anvil at peak elevations in agreement with lidar and radar observations on that day. Comparing the moisture field after the anvils decay with the initial state, we find that convection predominantly moistens the tropopause layer (as defined by minimum temperature and minimum potential temperature lapse rate), although some drying is also predicted in localized layers. We will also present results of sensitivity tests designed to separate the roles of cloud microphysics and dynamics.

Ackerman, A.↗

Aircraft-measured indirect cloud effects from biomass burning smoke in the Arctic and subarctic

The incidence of wildfires in the Arctic and subarctic is increasing; in boreal North America, for example, the burned area is expected to increase by 200–300% over the next 50–100 years, which previous studies suggest could have a large effect on cloud microphysics, lifetime, albedo, and precipitation. However, the interactions between smoke particles and clouds remain poorly quantified due to confounding meteorological influences and remote sensing limitations. Here, we use data from several aircraft campaigns in the Arctic and subarctic to explore cloud microphysics in liquid-phase clouds influenced by biomass burning. Median cloud droplet radii in smoky clouds were ~40–60% smaller than in background clouds. Based on the relationship between cloud droplet number ( N liq ) and various biomass burning tracers (BB t ) across the multi-campaign data set, we calculated the magnitude of subarctic and Arctic smoke aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs, where ACI = (1/3) × d ln ( N liq )/d ln (BB t )) to be ~0.16 out of a maximum possible value of 0.33 that would be obtained if all aerosols were to nucleate cloud droplets. Interestingly, in a separate subarctic case study with low liquid water content (~0.02gm –3 ) and very high aerosol concentrations (2000–3000 cm –3 ) in the most polluted clouds, the estimated ACI value was only 0.05. In this case, competition for water vapor by the high concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) strongly limited the formation of droplets and reduced the cloud albedo effect, which highlights the importance of cloud feedbacks across scales. Using our calculated ACI values, we estimate that the smoke-driven cloud albedo effect may decrease local summertime short-wave radiative flux by between 2 and 4 Wm –2 or more under some low and homogeneous cloud cover conditions in the subarctic, although the changes should be smaller in high surface albedo regions of the Arctic. Furthermore, we lastly explore evidence suggesting that numerous northern-latitude background Aitken particles can interact with combustion particles, perhaps impacting their properties as cloud condensation and ice nuclei.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Aircraft-Measured Indirect Cloud Effects from Biomass Burning Smoke in the Arctic and Subarctic

The incidence of wildfires in the Arctic and subarctic is increasing; in boreal North America, for example, the burned area is expected to increase by 200-300 over the next 50-100 years, which previous studies suggest could have a large effect on cloud microphysics, lifetime, albedo, and precipitation. However, the interactions between smoke particles and clouds remain poorly quantified due to confounding meteorological influences and remote sensing limitations. Here, we use data from several aircraft campaigns in the Arctic and subarctic to explore cloud microphysics in liquid-phase clouds influenced by biomass burning. Median cloud droplet radii in smoky clouds were 50 smaller than in background clouds. Based on the relationship between cloud droplet number (N(liq))/ and various biomass burning tracers (BBt/ across the multi-campaign dataset, we calculated the magnitude of subarctic and Arctic smoke aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI, where ACI = (1/3) x dln(N(liq))/dln(BBt)) to be 0.12 out of a maximum possible value of 0.33 that would be obtained if all aerosols were to nucleate cloud droplets. Interestingly, in a separate subarctic case study with low liquid water content (0.02 gm/ cu m) and very high aerosol concentrations (2000-3000 cu m) in the most polluted clouds, the estimated ACI value was only 0.06. In this case, competition for water vapor by the high concentration of CCN strongly limited the formation of droplets and reduced the cloud albedo effect, which highlights the importance of cloud feedbacks across scales. Using our calculated ACI values, we estimate that the smoke-driven cloud albedo effect may decrease shortwave radiative flux by 2 and 4 W/sq or more under some low and homogeneous cloud cover conditions in the subarctic, although the changes should be smaller in high surface albedo regions of the Arctic. We lastly show evidence to suggest that numerous northern latitude background Aitken particles can interact with combustion particles, perhaps impacting their properties as cloud condensation and ice nuclei. However, the influence of background particles on smoke-driven indirect effects is currently unclear.

Arctic↗

Super‐Droplet Method to Simulate Lagrangian Microphysics of Nuclear Fallout in a Homogeneous Cloud

Abstract Nuclear detonations produce hazardous local and global particles or fallout. Predicting fallout size, chemical components, and location is necessary to inform officials and determine immediate guidance for the public. However, existing nuclear detonation fallout models prescribe the particle size distributions based on limited observations. In this work, we apply the super‐droplet method, which is a numerical modeling technique developed for cloud microphysics, to simulate size distributions of particles in a mushroom cloud formed post‐detonation of a nuclear device. We model fallout formation and evolution with homogeneous nucleation and condensation of a single species and a Monte Carlo coagulation algorithm. We verify the numerical methods representing coagulation and condensation processes against analytical test problems. Additionally, we explore several scenarios for the integral system mass and yield in equivalent kilotons (kt) of TNT (trinitrotoluene). The fallout size distribution median diameter d pg follows a scaling law based on the integral system mass m v 0 kg and yield Y kt: nm. We test the effect of cloud turbulence, enhanced nucleation and growth, and vapor volatility with a sensitivity study. The range in median diameter predictions for simulations of historical tests performed over the Pacific encompass the measurements of particles sampled from the cloud caps. Predicted median particle size ranges up to 217, 123, 86, and 35 nm for historical tests with yields of 0.2, 0.7, 2, and 10 Mt, respectively. This work can be expanded in many different directions to build a more predictive model for fallout formation.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Untangling causality in midlatitude aerosol–cloud adjustments

Aerosol–cloud interactions represent the leading uncertainty in our ability to infer climate sensitivity from the observational record. The forcing from changes in cloud albedo driven by increases in cloud droplet number (Nd) (the first indirect effect) is confidently negative and has narrowed its probable range in the last decade, but the sign and strength of forcing associated with changes in cloud macrophysics in response to aerosol (aerosol–cloud adjustments) remain uncertain. This uncertainty reflects our inability to accurately quantify variability not associated with a causal link flowing from the cloud microphysical state to the cloud macrophysical state. Once variability associated with meteorology has been removed, covariance between the liquid water path (LWP) averaged across cloudy and clear regions (here characterizing the macrophysical state) and Nd (characterizing the microphysical) is the sum of two causal pathways linking Nd to LWP: Nd altering LWP (adjustments) and precipitation scavenging aerosol and thus depleting Nd. Only the former term is relevant to constraining adjustments, but disentangling these terms in observations is challenging. We hypothesize that the diversity of constraints on aerosol–cloud adjustments in the literature may be partly due to not explicitly characterizing covariance flowing from cloud to aerosol and aerosol to cloud. Here, we restrict our analysis to the regime of extratropical clouds outside of low-pressure centers associated with cyclonic activity. Observations from MAC-LWP (Multisensor Advanced Climatology of Liquid Water Path) and MODIS are compared to simulations in the Met Office Unified Model (UM) GA7.1 (the atmosphere model of HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1). The meteorological predictors of LWP are found to be similar between the model and observations. There is also agreement with previous literature on cloud-controlling factors finding that increasing stability, moisture, and sensible heat flux enhance LWP, while increasing subsidence and sea surface temperature decrease it. A simulation where cloud microphysics are insensitive to changes in Nd is used to characterize covariance between Nd and LWP that is induced by factors other than aerosol–cloud adjustments. By removing variability associated with meteorology and scavenging, we infer the sensitivity of LWP to changes in Nd. Application of this technique to UM GA7.1 simulations reproduces the true model adjustment strength. Observational constraints developed using simulated covariability not induced by adjustments and observed covariability between Nd and LWP predict a 25 %–30 % overestimate by the UM GA7.1 in LWP change and a 30 %–35 % overestimate in associated radiative forcing.

Daniel T. McCoy↗

Radiative properties of visible and subvisible Cirrus: Scattering on hexagonal ice crystals

One of the main objectives of the First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) Regional Experiment (FIRE) is to provide a better understanding of the physics of upper level clouds. The focus is on just one specific aspect of cirrus physics, namely on characterizing the radiative properties of single, nonspherical ice particles. The basis for further more extensive studies of the radiative transfer through upper level clouds is provided. Radiation provides a potential mechanism for strong feedback between the divergence of in-cloud radiative flux and the cloud microphysics and ultimately on the dynamics of the cloud. Some aspects of ice cloud microphysics that are relevant to the radiation calculations are described. Next, the Discrete Dipole Approximation (DDA) is introduced and some new results of scattering by irregular crystals are presented. The Anomalous Diffraction Theory (ADT) was adopted to investigate the scattering properties of even larger crystals. In this way the scattering properties of nonspherical particles were determined over a range of particle sizes.

Flatau, Piotr J.↗