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At least 199 records · Page 11

A Machine Learning Approach to Improve Air Traffic Management Initiatives

Collaborating closely with commercial air carriers and related organizations, the Federal Aviation Administration(FAA) regulates air traffic and ensures the safety and efficiency of air operations. Air traffic controllers make strategic decisions, such as delaying, rerouting, or canceling flights, partly based on guidance provided by the FAA’s Air TrafficControl System Command Center (ATCSCC). The guidance includes, among other things, control measures known asTraffic Management Initiatives (TMIs) designed to enhance safety and improve operational efficiency. TMIs play a crucial role in managing the demand and capacity within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS). Two major TMIs that are routinely used (primarily to mitigate the adverse effects of bad weather) are Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) andGround Stops (GSs). In a GDP, flights destined for airports facing thunderstorm activity experience delays at their origin airports. This proactive approach minimizes the risk of routing aircraft through hazardous weather conditions and also replaces (fuel burning) airborne delays with ground delays. In a GS, a temporary restriction is imposed on the departure or arrival of aircraft at a specific airport or within a designated airspace. Although other TMIs (e.g., miles-in-trail) are also implemented as part of (air) traffic flow management in the NAS, the focus of this work is on GDPs and GSs. Since TMIs, by design, lead to flight delays or cancellations, it is crucial to put in place the right set of parameters(e.g., scope and duration of the GDP). For example, when the end time of a GDP extends beyond what is necessary, it imposes unnecessary delays on departing flights. This situation could occur as a result of inaccurate prediction of the(required) duration of the GDP based on the weather forecast. On the other hand, if a GDP ends prematurely before the underlying capacity constraints are resolved at the destination airport, it may result in airborne holding. The delicate balance lies in matching the termination of the GDP precisely with the resolution of capacity constraints, avoiding both the imposition of unnecessary ground delays and the need for airborne holding due to premature program termination.Failing to specify the right parameters for TMIs also leads to flight delays, creating a significant obstacle in managing the increasing traffic volumes causing increased work load for the controllers. To address this issue, we propose the integration of Machine Learning (ML) models in the traffic flow management(TFM) pipeline. In current operations, decisions are made by human experts based on extensive training, historical patterns, available traffic and weather data. Since we have an abundance of data from past events that tell us the likely impact of various TMIs, by ingesting historical data, properly trained ML models can offer valuable insights and aid human decision-making. With the FAA increasingly exploring advanced analytics, ML emerges as a focal point for enhancing TFM within the National Airspace System (NAS). As a first step, this study aims to provide traffic controllers with decision-making support for the issuance and adjustment of TMIs. Data analytics and machine learning have been previously employed to address some of the challenges associated with TMIs. Numerous studies have concentrated on various facets of TMI issuance, exploring factors influencing TMI parameters, including arrival rate, airport capacity, and delay prediction. For example, using weather forecasts, several statistical methods were used to produce probabilistic capacity profiles which in conjunction with deterministic models provided insights into the GDP planning process [1–4]. The downside of using deterministic models is that they rely on fixed inputs and predetermined rules, which lack the ability to account for the inherent uncertainty and variability present in real-world scenarios. In a separate series of studies, researchers aimed to predict the occurrences of GDPs and GSs. The majority of these studies utilized various supervised learning methods, including Decision Trees, Naive Bayes, Support VectorMachines, and Random Forests to analyze the influence of weather conditions and arrival demand on TMI incidents[5–8]. However, these studies primarily focused on predicting the incidence of TMIs without explicitly addressing the scope of TMIs, including their duration and their geographical coverage. Furthermore, the emphasis of these studies was largely on GDPs, given their higher frequency and longer duration when compared to GSs. A limited number of studies focused on predicting the parameters of TMIs, specifically addressing their duration and extent. In one such study focusing on optimizing the TMI parameters at San Francisco International Airport (SFO),the authors utilized a probabilistic forecast of fog [9]. They simulated various capacity scenarios based on the (fog)burn-off forecasts, selecting GDP parameters that minimized airborne and overall ground delays. However, this approach exclusively emphasizes stratus (fog) burn-off as the primary determinant of GDP and GS, neglecting other influential factors like severe weather events, runway closures, lower capacity than traffic demand, and other important variables. Given the complexity of predicting the TMI and determining its scope, we seek a more holistic approach. We aim to consider all significant factors that could impact TMIs and their parameters. What sets this research apart is the fusion of all data sources relevant to the issuance and adjustment of TMIs and it represents the first comprehensive attempt to optimize TMIs in this manner. Since this comprehensive solution involves various aspects, we break down the problem into smaller components and input all parameters into a unified model called the “TMI Adjuster”. Figure 1 shows the overall framework and the list of datasets used in each model. The objective of the TMI Adjuster module is to deliver reliable, consistent and expedited recommendations for the progression, adjustment, and termination of TMIs. The ML solution entails developing a pipeline capable of predicting the necessity of a TMI (e.g., GS or GDP) along with its various parameters. For example, in the case of a GS, this includes the scope of the GS either in terms of distance from the destination airport or based on pre-defined airspace sectors. Here, scope refers to those regions and departing airports that are subject to the GS. In this paper, we concentrate on the issuance of GSs in the three major airports in the New York area — LaGuardia(LGA), John F. Kennedy International (JFK), and Newark Liberty International (EWR). We fuse traffic, weather and other relevant aviation data from years 2017 to 2019 to train and validate the ML models. In particular, we use the following datasets: •Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF): meteorological forecasts specific to each airport, issued four times a day, covering predefined time periods. •TMI data: includes all GSs and GDPs along with their respective parameters. •Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM): includes traffic related data such as aircraft delays, arrival, and departure rates. •Notices to Airmen (NOTAMs): utilized to extract runway closure data and manage interdependencies between terminals in close proximity. •Flight cancellation data •Airspace Flow Programs (AFP): includes information on flight airborne holdings caused by TMIs. The data preprocessing entails transforming ASPM, TMI, AFP, NOTAMs, and weather data into an hourly format and consolidating all datasets by merging them based on date and time as the primary key. The TMI Adjuster framework comprises two parallel models: one dedicated to GS and a second model focused on GDP. As previously mentioned, our specific focus is on the GS model as a multi-classification problem. In this framework, each data point of the GS model input summarizes ten hours of data. Specifically, the data loader for the GS model generates the input and output of the model as follows: at a given time step, the input includes the actual traffic, weather, and TMI data from the two-hour window before the time step, alongside the weather forecast and scheduled traffic for the next 8 hours starting from the time step. Based on this information, the output of the GS model for each time interval consists of three dimensions. The first dimension represents a binary decision on whether there should be a GS in place for the next hour or not. The second dimension is related to the scope of the GS in the United States, and the third dimension is related to the scope of the GS in Canada (i.e., to determine if the GS impacts airports in Canada).One of the challenges with TMI modeling is the sparsity of TMI events, particularly regarding its scope. To address this challenge in the scope of the GS model output, we implement grouping. The GS scope for the US region is defined based on a list of centers that should be included when the GS is in place. With 20 centers in the US, we utilized historical data to group them into 4 categories. In particular, we summarized our historical data in a graph format where nodes represent centers, and link weights are defined based on the co-occurrence of centers in the scope parameter ofTMIs. By identified strongly connected components in this graph, we were able to partition the centers into four groups. We consider two model structures for the GS Model. Firstly, a hierarchical classification model [10], where the human decision-making for a GS is of hierarchical nature. The decision-maker first decides whether there is a need fora GS, and if the answer is yes, determines the scope. A hierarchical classification model organizes the problem into a class hierarchy, typically a tree or a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) structure, and considers the dependency of the decision in the previous step to the next component [10]. Here, we employ the local classifier per level approach, which involves training one multi-class classifier for each level of the class hierarchy. The second structure is the independent structure. In this setting, as the name suggests, we do not consider the dependency of the decisions in the different dimensions of the output of the model. Instead, for each dimension, we train a multi-class classifier independently. Table 1 summarizes GS model statistics for training, validation and testing. The table documents the effect of limiting data to the time steps when there was actually a TMI in place or when a TMI had just terminated. This resulted in a more balanced distribution of the GS class(GS positive class)versus “No GS”(GS negative class), which might help the training process. While JFK and LGA follow very similar distributions, with 40% and 42% GS positive class respectively, EWR has proportionally fewer GS incidents at 28%. Our subsequent phase involves evaluating the performance of both hierarchical structure and independent structure using different state-of-the-art multi-class classifier models such as Random Forest, Decision Trees, K-nearest Neighbors, and Logistic Regression and forecast the duration and scope of the GSs.

Farzan Masrour Shalmani↗

Exploring the universality of hadronic jet classification

The modeling of jet substructure significantly differs between Parton Shower Monte Carlo (PSMC) programs. Despite this, we observe that machine learning classifiers trained on different PSMCs learn nearly the same function. This means that when these classifiers are applied to the same PSMC for testing, they result in nearly the same performance. This classifier universality indicates that a machine learning model trained on one simulation and tested on another simulation (or data) will likely be optimal. Our observations are based on detailed studies of shallow and deep neural networks applied to simulated Lorentz boosted Higgs jet tagging at the LHC.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A Generalization of Threshold-Based and Probability-Based Models of Information Diffusion

Diffusion of information through complex networks is of interest in studies such as propagation prediction and influence maximization, both of which have applications in viral marketing and rumor controlling. There are a variety of information diffusion models, all of which simulate the adoption and spread of information over time. However, there is a lack of understanding of whether, despite their conceptual differences, these models represent the same underlying generative structures. For instance, if two different models utilize different conceptual mechanisms, but generate the same results, does the choice of model matter? A classification of diffusion of information models is developed based on the neighbor knowledge of the model infection requirement and the stochasticity of the model. This classification allows for the identification of models that fall into each respective category. The study involves the analysis of the following agent-based models on directed scale-free networks: (1) a linear absolute threshold model (LATM), (2) a linear fractional threshold model (LTFM), (3) the independent cascade model (ICM), (4) Bass-Rand-Rust model (BRRM) (5) a stochastic linear absolute threshold model (SLATM) (6) a stochastic fractional threshold model (SLFTM), and (7) Dodds–Watts model (DWM). Through the execution of simulations and analysis of the experimental results, the distinctive properties of each model are identified. Our analysis reveals that similarity in conceptual design does not imply similarity in behavior concerning speed, final state of nodes and edges, and sensitivity to parameters. Therefore, we highlight the importance of considering the unique behavioral characteristics of each model when selecting a suitable information diffusion model for a particular application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Integrating Predictions for Improving Defect Classification Accuracy in NDT-based Assessment of Concrete - 20229

There is an increasing need to create predictive models for defect classification in concrete using the output of non-destructive testing (NDT) techniques. Recent advancement of machine-learning algorithms has offered several techniques for developing classification models for different types of data sets. However, the performance of these algorithms is very uncertain, mainly when applied to small and noisy datasets. For example, when human access is limited (e.g., nuclear facility), robot-based NDT is preferred. But compared to manual tests with humans present on site, the data sets are small, and more noise can exist. Therefore, it is imperative to develop new approaches to ensure a consistently high classification accuracy for inadequate data sets. This study explores the classification performance on NDT dataset using classifiers from different machine-learning algorithms, namely k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN), Decision Tree, Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The authors further integrated the predictions from these classifiers using proposed methods. The integration strategy combines the output of the classifiers based on two different measures, accuracy, and performance (ACC and PERF), using equations such as sum, average, and square-root-of-sums-of-squares (SRSS). Our results reveal varying classification accuracies across individual classifiers with different misclassifications across the test data set. The integration strategy provided significant improvement in the classification accuracy compared to the individual classifiers. Furthermore, the results indicate minimal variation across the integration methods as compared to the variation across the individual classifiers. To conclude, prediction integration offers a unique approach for combining the output of multiple classifiers to create redundancies with the potential of achieving high classification performance and improved reliability in predictive models for defect detection in concrete. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Seed classification with random forest models

Premise: To improve forest conservation monitoring, we developed a protocol to automatically count and identify the seeds of plant species with minimal resource requirements, making the process more efficient and less dependent on human operators. Methods and Results: Seeds from six North American conifer tree species were separated from leaf litter and imaged on a flatbed scanner. In the most successful species-classification approach, an ImageJ macro automatically extracted measurements for random forest classification in the software R. The method allows for good classification accuracy, and the same process can be used to train the model on other species. Conclusions: This protocol is an adaptable tool for efficient and consistent identification of seed species or potentially other objects. Automated seed classification is efficient and inexpensive, making it a practical solution that enhances the feasibility of large-scale monitoring projects in conservation biology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Improving Text Classification with Large Language Model-Based Data Augmentation

Large Language Models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT possess advanced capabilities in understanding and generating text. These capabilities enable ChatGPT to create text based on specific instructions, which can serve as augmented data for text classification tasks. Previous studies have approached data augmentation (DA) by either rewriting the existing dataset with ChatGPT or generating entirely new data from scratch. However, it is unclear which method is better without comparing their effectiveness. This study investigates the application of both methods to two datasets: a general-topic dataset (Reuters news data) and a domain-specific dataset (Mitigation dataset). Our findings indicate that: 1. ChatGPT generated new data consistently enhanced model’s classification results for both datasets. 2. Generating new data generally outperforms rewriting existing data, though crafting the prompts carefully is crucial to extract the most valuable information from ChatGPT, particularly for domain-specific data. 3. The augmentation data size affects the effectiveness of DA; however, we observed a plateau after incorporating 10 samples. 4. Combining the rewritten sample with new generated sample can potentially further improve the model’s performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Machine Learning Models for Network Traffic Classification in Programmable Logic

Network traffic classification via machine learning on network packet payloads has emerged as an active area of research for network security due to the high accuracy machine learning models have achieved in classifying payloads. For effective deployment as part of network security, these machine learning models must not only classify malicious packet payloads accurately, they must also identify anomalous payloads and perform inference at speeds generally faster than 10,000 packets per second to be effective. This work explores the in- ference speeds and accuracy of several neural network models implemented in programmable logic on various field programmable gate arrays (FPGA) including the Xilinx VC1902 and Xilinx Zynq Ultrascale+. This work also presents the design and performance of both an autoencoder and variational autoencoder programmed on the FPGA for identifying anomalous packet payloads. The performance benefits of the FPGA implementation for this type of packet payload inspection driven by machine learning are compared against graphics processing unit (GPU) inference implementations run on two state-of-the-art datacenter GPU devices, the NVIDIA V100 and A100. The model accuracy difference between the FPGA and GPU implementations was found to be 4% or less while the Xilinx VC1902 outperformed both the NVIDIA V100 and A100 for inference speeds on all the models explored except the variational autoencoder.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Ice Phase Classification Made Easy with Score-Based Denoising

Accurate identification of ice phases is essential for understanding various physicochemical phenomena. However, such classification for structures simulated with molecular dynamics is complicated by the complex symmetries of ice polymorphs and thermal fluctuations. For this purpose, both traditional order parameters and data-driven machine learning approaches have been employed, but they often rely on expert intuition, specific geometric information, or large training data sets. In this work, we present an unsupervised phase classification framework that combines a score-based denoiser model with a subsequent model-free classification method to accurately identify ice phases. Further, the denoiser model is trained on perturbed synthetic data of ideal reference structures, eliminating the need for large data sets and labeling efforts. The classification step utilizes the smooth overlap of atomic position (SOAP) descriptors as the atomic fingerprint, ensuring Euclidean symmetries and transferability to various structural systems. Our approach achieves a remarkable 100% accuracy in distinguishing ice phases of test trajectories using only seven ideal reference structures of ice phases as model inputs. This demonstrates the generalizability of the score-based denoiser model in facilitating phase identification for complex molecular systems. The proposed classification strategy can be broadly applied to investigate structural evolution and phase identification for a wide range of materials, offering new insights into the fundamental understanding of water and other complex systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Machine Learning Benchmarks for the Classification of Equivalent Circuit Models from Electrochemical Impedance Spectra

Analysis of Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) data for electrochemical systems often consists of defining an Equivalent Circuit Model (ECM) using expert knowledge and then optimizing the model parameters to deconvolute various resistance, capacitive, inductive, or diffusion responses. For small data sets, this procedure can be conducted manually; however, it is not feasible to manually define a proper ECM for extensive data sets with a wide range of EIS responses. Automatic identification of an ECM would substantially accelerate the analysis of large sets of EIS data. We showcase machine learning methods to classify the ECMs of 9,300 impedance spectra provided by QuantumScape for the BatteryDEV hackathon. The best-performing approach is a gradient-boosted tree model utilizing a library to automatically generate features, followed by a random forest model using the raw spectral data. A convolutional neural network using boolean images of Nyquist representations is presented as an alternative, although it achieves a lower accuracy. We publish the data and open source the associated code. The approaches described in this article can serve as benchmarks for further studies. A key remaining challenge is the identifiability of the labels, underlined by the model performances and the comparison of misclassified spectra.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Power System Event Classification and Localization Using a Convolutional Neural Network

Detection and timely identification of power system disturbances are essential for situation awareness and reliable electricity grid operation. Because records of actual events in the system are limited, ensemble simulation-based events are needed to provide adequate data for building event-detection models through deep learning; e.g., a convolutional neural network (CNN). An ensemble numerical simulation-based training data set have been generated through dynamic simulations performed on the Polish system with various types of faults in different locations. Such data augmentation is proven to be able to provide adequate data for deep learning. The synchronous generators’ frequency signals are used and encoded into images for developing and evaluating CNN models for classification of fault types and locations. With a time-domain stacked image set as the benchmark, two different time-series encoding approaches, i.e., wavelet decomposition-based frequency-domain stacking and polar coordinate system-based Gramian Angular Field (GAF) stacking, are also adopted to evaluate and compare the CNN model performance and applicability. The various encoding approaches are suitable for different fault types and spatial zonation. With optimized settings of the developed CNN models, the classification and localization accuracies can go beyond 84 and 91%, respectively.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

New Neighbours: Modelling the Growing Population of gamma-ray Millisecond Pulsars

The Fermi Large Area Telescope, in collaboration with several groups from the radio community. have had marvelous success at uncovering new gamma-ray millisecond pulsars (MSPs). In fact, MSPs now make up a sizable fraction of the total number of known gamma-ray pulsars. The MSP population is characterized by a variety of pulse profile shapes, peak separations, and radio-to-gamma phase lags, with some members exhibiting nearly phase-aligned radio and gamma-ray light curves (LCs). The MSPs' short spin periods underline the importance of including special relativistic effects in LC calculations, even for emission originating from near the stellar surface. We present results on modelling and classification of MSP LCs using standard pulsar model geometries.

Venter, C.↗

Third-Party Supplier Risk Re-Classification Using Multi-Model Semantic Voting and External Web Augmentation

Risk decisions in many third-party risk management (TPRM) workflows rely on static inherent risk questionnaires (IRQ). These static forms provide a snapshot of the vendor from the business users’ perspective, as these requests are processed without cross-referencing for evidence. Consequently, responses can be misinformed or embellished with inaccuracies, thereby masking the vendor’s true risk to the enterprise. This paper presents a multi-stage verification framework to augment IRQs with web evidence and a deterministic ensemble of large language model assessors to reclassify risk. In a case study of 100 submissions previously misclassified as low risk, the proposed framework correctly identified 76% of the cases as high risk, while the existing workflow identified none. McNemar’s continuity corrected statistics of 74 were obtained with a two sided p-value of 2.65 × 10-23, indicating a significantly more effective workflow compared to the legacy model.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Adversarial classification via distributional robustness with Wasserstein ambiguity

Abstract We study a model for adversarial classification based on distributionally robust chance constraints. We show that under Wasserstein ambiguity, the model aims to minimize the conditional value-at-risk of the distance to misclassification, and we explore links to adversarial classification models proposed earlier and to maximum-margin classifiers. We also provide a reformulation of the distributionally robust model for linear classification, and show it is equivalent to minimizing a regularized ramp loss objective. Numerical experiments show that, despite the nonconvexity of this formulation, standard descent methods appear to converge to the global minimizer for this problem. Inspired by this observation, we show that, for a certain class of distributions, the only stationary point of the regularized ramp loss minimization problem is the global minimizer.

Ho-Nguyen, Nam (ORCID:0000000344647730)↗

Classifying metal‐binding sites with neural networks

Abstract To advance our ability to predict impacts of the protein scaffold on catalysis, robust classification schemes to define features of proteins that will influence reactivity are needed. One of these features is a protein's metal‐binding ability, as metals are critical to catalytic conversion by metalloenzymes. As a step toward realizing this goal, we used convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to enable the classification of a metal cofactor binding pocket within a protein scaffold. CNNs enable images to be classified based on multiple levels of detail in the image, from edges and corners to entire objects, and can provide rapid classification. First, six CNN models were fine‐tuned to classify the 20 standard amino acids to choose a performant model for amino acid classification. This model was then trained in two parallel efforts: to classify a 2D image of the environment within a given radius of the central metal binding site, either an Fe ion or a [2Fe‐2S] cofactor, with the metal visible (effort 1) or the metal hidden (effort 2). We further used two sub‐classifications of the [2Fe‐2S] cofactor: (1) a standard [2Fe‐2S] cofactor and (2) a Rieske [2Fe‐2S] cofactor. The accuracy for the model correctly identifying all three defined features was >95%, despite our perception of the increased challenge of the metalloenzyme identification. This demonstrates that machine learning methodology to classify and distinguish similar metal‐binding sites, even in the absence of a visible cofactor, is indeed possible and offers an additional tool for metal‐binding site identification in proteins.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning-Driven Reliability Estimation of PV Inverters Considering Alert-Ambient Variability

Weather-induced spatio-temporal degradation limits outdoor PV inverter lifetime and reliability, necessitating advanced data analysis. This study employs a top-down, data-driven approach utilizing multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms to estimate inverter reliability in a 1.4 MW PV power plant, considering factors such as irradiance, humidity, temperature, time of day, and weather conditions. An extensive alert dataset from 17 identical inverters, including alert types, propagation, and frequency, reveals significant correlations with environmental factors and inverter output power, enabling the construction of a performance reliability model. Dual-stage supervised-ML models are evaluated for accuracy, with the ‘classification-regression’ model by an artificial neural network (ANN) tested on the averaged “Alert-Ambient” dataset, which is outperformed by ‘clustering-regression’ models using random forest (RF) and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) on individual inverter datasets. K-means clustering applies principal component analysis to reduce dimensions, achieving improved accuracy beyond the 80% achieved by ANN on the averaged dataset. Second-stage regression estimates inverter reliability with a mean square error of 0.0195 on the averaged dataset and as low as 0.002 on individual inverter datasets using RF. Furthermore, these findings highlight the method's suitability for estimating PV inverter output reliability under ambient conditions, essential for digital twin development and related applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Uncertainty Aware Deep Learning for Particle Accelerators

Standard deep learning models for classification and regression applications are ideal for capturing complex system dynamics. However, their predictions can be arbitrarily inaccurate when the input samples are not similar to the training data. Implementation of distance aware uncertainty estimation can be used to detect these scenarios and provide a level of confidence associated with their predictions. In this paper, we present results from using Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) methods for errant beam prediction at Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) accelerator (classification) and we provide an uncertainty aware surrogate model for the Fermi National Accelerator Lab (FNAL) Booster Accelerator Complex (regression).

Rajput, Kishansingh↗