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NASA NTRS2017

NASA's Space Launch System: A Transformative Capability for Deep Space Missions

Already making substantial progress toward its first launches, NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) exploration-class launch vehicle presents game-changing new opportunities in spaceflight, enabling human exploration of deep space, as well as a variety of missions and mission profiles that are currently impossible. Today, the initial configuration of SLS, able to deliver more than 70 metric tons of payload to low Earth orbit (LEO), is well into final production and testing ahead of its planned first flight, which will send NASA’s new Orion crew vehicle around the moon and will deploy 13 CubeSats, representing multiple disciplines, into deep space. At the same time, production work is already underway toward the more-capable Block 1B configuration, planned to debut on the second flight of SLS, and capable of lofting 105 tons to LEO or of co-manifesting large exploration systems with Orion on launches to the lunar vicinity. Progress being made on the vehicle for that second flight includes initial welding of its core stage and testing of one of its engines, as well as development of new elements such as the powerful Exploration Upper Stage and the Universal Stage Adapter “payload bay.” Ultimately, SLS will evolve to a configuration capable of delivering more than 130 tons to LEO to support humans missions to Mars. In order to enable human deep-space exploration, SLS provides unrivaled mass, volume, and departure energy for payloads, offering numerous benefits for a variety of other missions. For robotic science probes to the outer solar system, for example, SLS can cut transit times to less than half that of currently available vehicles or substantially increased spacecraft mass. In the field of astrophysics, SLS’ high payload volume, in the form of payload fairings with a diameter of up to 10 meters, creates the opportunity for launch of large-aperture telescopes providing an unprecedented look at our universe. This presentation will give an overview of SLS’ capabilities and its current status, and discuss the vehicle’s potential for human exploration of deep space and other game-changing utilization opportunities.

Creech, Stephen D.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Tools for Designing, Evaluating, and Certifying NextGen Technologies and Procedures: Automation Roles and Responsibilities

Barbara Kanki from NASA Ames Research Center will discuss research that focuses on the collaborations between pilots, air traffic controllers and dispatchers that will change in NextGen systems as automation increases and roles and responsibilities change. The approach taken by this NASA Ames team is to build a collaborative systems assessment template (CSAT) based on detailed task descriptions within each system to establish a baseline of the current operations. The collaborative content and context are delineated through the review of regulatory and advisory materials, policies, procedures and documented practices as augmented by field observations and interviews. The CSAT is developed to aid the assessment of key human factors and performance tradeoffs that result from considering different collaborative arrangements under NextGen system changes. In theory, the CSAT product may be applied to any NextGen application (such as Trajectory Based Operations) with specified ground and aircraft capabilities.

Kanki, Barbara G.↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

The surface of Mars once had abundant water flowing on its surface, but now there is a general perception that this surface is completely dry. Several lines of research have shown that there are sources of potentially large quantities of water at many locations on the surface, including regions considered as candidates for future human missions. Traditionally, system designs for these human missions are constrained to tightly recycle water and oxygen, and current resource utilization strategies involve ascent vehicle oxidizer production only. But the assumption of relatively abundant extant water may change this. Several scenarios were constructed to evaluate water requirements for human Mars expeditions to assess the impact to system design if locally produced water is available. Specifically, we have assessed water resources needed for 1) ascent vehicle oxidizer and fuel production, 2) open-loop water and oxygen life support requirements along with more robust usage scenarios, and 3) crew radiation protection augmentation. In this assessment, production techniques and the associated chemistry to transform Martian water and atmosphere into these useful commodities are identified, but production mass and power requirements are left to future analyses. The figure below illustrates the type of water need assessment performed and that will be discussed. There have been several sources of feedstock material discussed in recent literature that could be used to produce these quantities of water. This paper will focus on Mars surface features that resemble glacier-like forms on Earth. Several lines of evidence indicate that some of these features are in fact buried ice, likely remnants from an earlier ice age on Mars. This paper examines techniques and hardware systems used in the polar regions of Earth to access this buried ice and withdraw water from it. These techniques and systems will be described to illustrate options available. A technique known as a Rodriguez Well is assessed as a likely method for extracting water from these bodies of ice. The figure below is a sample of results from this assessment that will be discussed.

Hoffman, Stephen↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Tracking 2020 Decreases in Carbon Dioxide Due to the COVID19 Pandemic in NASA’s GEOS Modeling system: Implications for Space-Based Carbon Monitoring

The COVID19 pandemic led to abrupt, worldwide changes in human activity and related emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases that are unprecedented in modern times. NASA satellites have demonstrated their ability to observe some of these impacts, particularly in relation to short-lived gases like nitrogen dioxide (NO2), which is emitted primarily from transportation. Bottom-up analyses of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions suggest that the growth of atmospheric CO2 has also slowed, but differences are much more subtle than for NO2 because of the lifetime of atmospheric CO2 and sectoral differences in emission reductions. Estimates of CO2 from NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) provide a unique view of COVID19 impacts, but observed changes in the column-average CO2 can be difficult to interpret because of gaps in spatial coverage. Assimilating these data into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS), an integrated Earth system model with an advanced Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS), helped to reveal changes in CO2 that are consistent with separate, bottom-up analyses of emissions reductions. Both indicate that from February-April of 2020, the growth in CO2 over Europe, North America, and Asia was roughly 0.3 ppm less than during the previous four years. Anomalies derived from gap-filled GEOS OCO-2 CoDAS products contribute to a joint effort by the world’s space agencies to track COVID19 impacts on the Earth. However, attribution of these changes is complicated by interannual variability in atmospheric circulation and the influence of climate on ocean and land carbon sinks. We discuss these results from the perspective of space-based carbon monitoring, which has received considerable support over the past decade from NASA. Our results demonstrate the accomplishments of current sensors and data assimilation systems, but also highlight challenges in providing high quality, low latency information to the public. In particular, understanding and attributing CO2 changes during 2020 requires year-specific information about land and ocean fluxes, which is often delayed for months or even years. We discuss current limitations and potential solutions to address these lags, which would support more reliable and timely space-based carbon monitoring.

COVID-19↗
NASA NTRS2016

How Did Climate and Humans Respond to Past Volcanic Eruptions?

To predict and prepare for future climate change, scientists are striving to understand how global-scale climatic change manifests itself on regional scales and also how societies adapt or don't to sometimes subtle and complex climatic changes. In this regard, the strongest volcanic eruptions of the past are powerful test cases, showcasing how the broad climate system responds to sudden changes in radiative forcing and how societies have responded to the resulting climatic shocks. These issues were at the heart of the inaugural workshop of the Volcanic Impacts on Climate and Society (VICS) Working Group, convened in June 2016 at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University in Palisades, N.Y. The 3-day meeting gathered approximately 50 researchers, who presented work intertwining the history of volcanic eruptions and the physical processes that connect eruptions with human and natural systems on a global scale.

societies↗
NASA NTRS1988

Blindness in designing intelligent systems

New investigations of the foundations of artificial intelligence are challenging the hypothesis that problem solving is the cornerstone of intelligence. New distinctions among three domains of concern for humans--description, action, and commitment--have revealed that the design process for programmable machines, such as expert systems, is based on descriptions of actions and induces blindness to nonanalytic action and commitment. Design processes focusing in the domain of description are likely to yield programs like burearcracies: rigid, obtuse, impersonal, and unable to adapt to changing circumstances. Systems that learn from their past actions, and systems that organize information for interpretation by human experts, are more likely to be successful in areas where expert systems have failed.

Denning, Peter J.↗
NASA NTRS2014

NASA Wearable Technology CLUSTER 2013-2014 Report

Wearable technology has the potential to revolutionize the way humans interact with one another, with information, and with the electronic systems that surround them. This change can already be seen in the dramatic increase in the availability and use of wearable health and activity monitors. These devices continuously monitor the wearer using on-­‐body sensors and wireless communication. They provide feedback that can be used to improve physical health and performance. Smart watches and head mounted displays are also receiving a great deal of commercial attention, providing immediate access to information via graphical displays, as well as additional sensing features. For the purposes of the Wearable Technology CLUSTER, wearable technology is broadly defined as any electronic sensing, human interfaces, computing, or communication that is mounted on the body. Current commercially available wearable devices primarily house electronics in rigid packaging to provide protection from flexing, moisture, and other contaminants. NASA mentors are interested in this approach, but are also interested in direct integration of electronics into clothing to enable more comfortable systems. For human spaceflight, wearable technology holds a great deal of promise for significantly improving safety, efficiency, autonomy, and research capacity for the crew in space and support personnel on the ground. Specific capabilities of interest include: Continuous biomedical monitoring for research and detection of health problems. Environmental monitoring for individual exposure assessments and alarms. Activity monitoring for responsive robotics and environments. Multi-modal caution and warning using tactile, auditory, and visual alarms. Wireless, hands-free, on-demand voice communication. Mobile, on-demand access to space vehicle and robotic displays and controls. Many technical challenges must be overcome to realize these wearable technology applications. For example, to make a wearable device that is both functional and comfortable for long duration wear, developers must strive to reduce electronic mass and volume while also addressing constraints imposed by the body attachment method. Depending on the application, the device must be placed in a location that the user can see and reach, and that provides the appropriate access to air and the wearer's skin. Limited power is available from body-­‐worn batteries and heat must be managed to prevent discomfort. If the clothing is to be washed, there are additional durability and washability hurdles that traditional electronics are not designed to address. Finally, each specific capability has unique technical challenges that will likely require unique solutions. In addition to the technical challenges, development of wearable devices is made more difficult by the diversity of skills required and the historic lack of collaboration across domains. Wearable technology development requires expertise in textiles engineering, apparel design, software and computer engineering, electronic design and manufacturing, human factors engineering, and application-­‐specific fields such as acoustics, medical devices, and sensing. Knowledge from each of these domains must be integrated to create functional and comfortable devices. For this reason, the diversity of knowledge and experience represented in the Wearable Technology is critical to overcoming the fundamental challenges in the field.

Simon, Cory↗
NASA NTRS2004

Dynamics and Stability of Capillary Surfaces: Liquid Switches at Small Scales

The dynamics and stability of systems of interfaces is central to a range of technologies related to the Human Exploration and Development of Space (HEDS). Our premise is that dramatic shape changes can be manipulated to advantage with minimal input, if the system is near instability. The primary objective is to develop the science base to allow novel approaches to liquid management in low-gravity based on this premise. HEDS requires efficient, reliable and lightweight technologies. Our poster will highlight our progress toward this goal using the capillary switch as an example. A capillary surface is a liquid/liquid or liquid/gas interface whose shape is determined by surface tension. For typical liquids (e.g., water) against gas on earth, capillary surfaces occur on the millimeterscale and smaller where shape deformation due to gravity is unimportant. In low gravity, they can occur on the centimeter scale. Capillary surfaces can be combined to make a switch a system with multiple stable states. A capillary switch can generate motion or effect force. To be practical, the energy barriers of such a switch must be tunable, its switching time (kinetics) short and its triggering mechanism reliable. We illustrate these features with a capillary switch that consists of two droplets, coupled by common pressure. As long as contact lines remained pinned, motions are inviscid, even at sub-millimeter scales, with consequent promise of low-power consumption at the device level. Predictions of theory are compared to experiment on i) a soap-film prototype at centimeter scale and ii) a liquid droplet switch at millimeter-scale.

Steen, Paul H.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Development of Human System Integration at NASA

Human Systems Integration seeks to design systems around the capabilities and limitations of the humans which use and interact with the system, ensuring greater efficiency of use, reduced error rates, and less rework in the design, manufacturing and operational deployment of hardware and software. One of the primary goals of HSI is to get the human factors practitioner involved early in the design process. In doing so, the aim is to reduce future budget costs and resources in redesign and training. By the preliminary design phase of a project nearly 80% of the total cost of the project is locked in. Potential design changes recommended by evaluations past this point will have little effect due to lack of funding or a huge cost in terms of resources to make changes. Three key concepts define an effective HSI program. First, systems are comprised of hardware, software, and the human, all of which operate within an environment. Too often, engineers and developers fail to consider the human capacity or requirements as part of the system. This leads to poor task allocation within the system. To promote ideal task allocation, it is critical that the human element be considered early in system development. Poor design, or designs that do not adequately consider the human component, could negatively affect physical or mental performance, as well as, social behavior. Second, successful HSI depends upon integration and collaboration of all the domains that represent acquisition efforts. Too often, these domains exist as independent disciplines due to the location of expertise within the service structure. Proper implementation of HSI through participation would help to integrate these domains and disciplines to leverage and apply their interdependencies to attain an optimal design. Via this process domain interests can be integrated to perform effective HSI through trade-offs and collaboration. This provides a common basis upon which to make knowledgeable decisions. Finally, HSI must be considered early in the requirements development phase of system design and acquisition. This will provide the best opportunity to maximize return on investment (ROI) and system performance. HSI requirements must be developed in conjunction with capability ]based requirements generation through functional. HSI requirements will drive HSI metrics and embed HSI issues within the system design. After a system is designed, implementation of HSI oversights can be very expensive. An HSI program should be included as an integral part of a total system approach to vehicle and habitat development. This would include, but not limited to, workstation design, D&C development, volumetric analysis, training, operations, and human -robotic interaction. HSI is a necessary process for Human Space Flight programs to meet the Agency Human ]System standards and thus mitigate human risks to acceptable levels. NASA has been involved in HSI planning, procedures development, process, and implementation for many years, and has been building several internal and publicly accessible products to facilitate HSI fs inclusion in the NASA Systems Engineering Lifecycle. Some of these products include: NASA STD 3001 Volumes 1 and 2, Human Integration Design Handbook, NASA HSI Implementation Plan, NASA HSI Implementation Plan Templates, NASA HSI Implementation Handbook, and a 2 ]hour short course on HSI delivered as part of the NASA Space and Life Sciences Directorate Academy. These products have been created leveraging industry best practices and lessons learned from other Federal Government agencies.

Whitmore, Mihriban↗
NASA NTRS1983

Productivity in an evolutionary space station

Space station productivity is treated from a systems point of view, considering the functions and attributes of space station development, formation, and operation that affect productivity. An optimum planning method is needed to assure that the station will have mission flexibility, technology advancement, maintainability, and evolutionary capability. Advanced technology will be designed into the housekeeping and utility functions of the station. Greater risk taking may be allowed into designs if the potential benefits of the advanced system support the risk, and if the system can be buffered from causing a failure cascade throughout the station. A common data base is needed to store and track all designs, developments, and changes in the station subsystems. Systems that can be automated and free the human inhabitants for more productive work are favored, as are modular components that are highly fault-free. Human control must also be possible, especially during check-out and verification, and also for teaching the automated systems new or modified tasks.

Anderson, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Cost benefits from human productivity design

The degree to which changing definitions of productivity influence the design of space systems is discussed from a sociological point of view. Particular attention is given to the importance of subjective criteria used in judgements about the cost and benefits of designing a Space Station. It is recommended that designers, administrators, and potential private industrial participants recognize the objectives and goals of other groups involved in the Space Station program in order to establish the most cooperative and productive design environment.

Bluth, B. J.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The effects of space flight on the cardiopulmonary system

Alterations of the human cardiopulmonary system in space flight are examined, including fluid shifts, orthostatic intolerance, changes in cardiac dynamics and electromechanics, and changes in pulmonary function and exercise capacity. Consideration is given to lower body negative pressure data from Skylab experiments and studies on the Space Shuttle. Also, echocardiography, cardiac dysrhythmias during spaceflight, and the role of neural mechanisms in circulatory control after spaceflight are discussed.

Nicogossian, Arnauld E.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Renal Stone Risk During Space Flight: Assessment and Countermeasure Validation

NASA has focused its future on exploration class missions including the goal of returning to the moon and landing on Mars. With these objectives, humans will experience an extended exposure to the harsh environment of microgravity and the associated negative effects on all the physiological systems of the body. Exposure to microgravity affects human physiology and results in changes to the urinary chemical composition during and after space flight. These changes are associated with an increased risk of renal stone formation. The development of a renal stone would have health consequences for the crewmember and negatively impact the success of the mission. As of January 2007, 15 known symptomatic medical events consistent with urinary calculi have been experienced by 13 U.S. astronauts and Russian cosmonauts. Previous results from both MIR and Shuttle missions have demonstrated an increased risk for renal stone formation. These data have shown decreased urine volume, urinary pH and citrate levels and increased urinary calcium. Citrate, an important urinary inhibitor of calcium-containing renal stones binds with calcium in the urine, thereby reducing the amount of calcium available to form calcium oxalate stones. Urinary citrate also prevents calcium oxalate crystals from aggregating into larger crystals and into renal stones. In addition, citrate makes the urine less acidic which inhibits the development of uric acid stones. Potassium citrate supplementation has been successfully used to treat patients who have formed renal stones. The evaluation of potassium citrate as a countermeasure has been performed during the ISS Expeditions 3-6, 8, 11-13 and is currently in progress during the ISS Expedition 14 mission. Together with the assessment of stone risk and the evaluation of a countermeasure, this investigation provides an educational opportunity to all crewmembers. Individual urinary biochemical profiles are generated and the risk of stone formation is estimated. Increasing fluid intake is recommended to all crewmembers. These results can be used to lower the risk for stone formation through lifestyle, diet changes or therapeutic administration to minimize the risk for stone development. With human presence in microgravity a continuing presence and exploration class missions being planned, maintaining the health and welfare of all crewmembers is critical to the exploration of space.

Whitson, P. A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Cerebral versus systemic hemodynamics during graded orthostatic stress in humans

BACKGROUND: Orthostatic syncope is usually attributed to cerebral hypoperfusion secondary to systemic hemodynamic collapse. Recent research in patients with neurocardiogenic syncope has suggested that cerebral vasoconstriction may occur during orthostatic hypotension, compromising cerebral autoregulation and possibly contributing to the loss of consciousness. However, the regulation of cerebral blood flow (CBF) in such patients may be quite different from that of healthy individuals, particularly when assessed during the rapidly changing hemodynamic conditions associated with neurocardiogenic syncope. To be able to interpret the pathophysiological significance of these observations, a clear understanding of the normal responses of the cerebral circulation to orthostatic stress must be obtained, particularly in the context of the known changes in systemic and regional distributions of blood flow and vascular resistance during orthostasis. Therefore, the specific aim of this study was to examine the changes that occur in the cerebral circulation during graded reductions in central blood volume in the absence of systemic hypotension in healthy humans. We hypothesized that cerebral vasoconstriction would occur and CBF would decrease due to activation of the sympathetic nervous system. We further hypothesized, however, that the magnitude of this change would be small compared with changes in systemic or skeletal muscle vascular resistance in healthy subjects with intact autoregulation and would be unlikely to cause syncope without concomitant hypotension. METHODS AND RESULTS: To test this hypothesis, we studied 13 healthy men (age, 27 +/- 7 years) during progressive lower body negative pressure (LBNP). We measured systemic flow (Qc is cardiac output; C2H2 rebreathing), regional forearm flow (FBF; venous occlusion plethysmography), and blood pressure (BP; Finapres) and calculated systemic (SVR) and forearm (FVR) vascular resistances. Changes in brain blood flow were estimated from changes in the blood flow velocity in the middle cerebral artery (VMCA) using transcranial Doppler. Pulsatility (systolic minus diastolic/mean velocity) normalized for systemic arterial pressure pulsatility was used as an index of distal cerebral vascular resistance. End-tidal PACO2 was closely monitored during LBNP. From rest to maximal LBNP before the onset of symptoms or systemic hypotension, Qc and FBF decreased by 29.9% and 34.4%, respectively. VMCA decreased less, by 15.5% consistent with a smaller decrease in CBF. Similarly, SVR and FVR increased by 62.8% and 69.8%, respectively, whereas pulsatility increased by 17.2%, suggestive of a mild degree of small-vessel cerebral vasoconstriction. Seven of 13 subjects had presyncope during LBNP, all associated with a sudden drop in BP (29 +/- 9%). By comparison, hyperventilation alone caused greater changes in VMCA (42 +/- 2%) and pulsatility but never caused presyncope. In a separate group of 3 subjects, superimposition of hyperventilation during highlevel LBNP caused a further decrease in VMCA (31 +/- 7%) but no change in BP or level of consciousness. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that cerebral vasoconstriction occurs in healthy humans during graded reductions in central blood volume caused by LBNP. However, the magnitude of this response is small compared with changes in SVR or FVR during LBNP or other stimuli known to induce cerebral vasoconstriction (hypocapnia). We speculate that this degree of cerebral vasoconstriction is not by itself sufficient to cause syncope during orthostatic stress. However, it may exacerbate the decrease in CBF associated with hypotension if hemodynamic instability develops.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗
NASA NTRS2013

Human and Natural Influences on the Changing Thermal Structure of the Atmosphere

Since the late 1970s, satellite-based instruments have monitored global changes in atmospheric temperature. These measurements reveal multidecadal tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, punctuated by short-term volcanic signals of reverse sign. Similar long- and short-term temperature signals occur in model simulations driven by human-caused changes in atmospheric composition and natural variations in volcanic aerosols. Most previous comparisons of modeled and observed atmospheric temperature changes have used results from individual models and individual observational records. In contrast, we rely on a large multimodel archive and multiple observational datasets. We show that a human-caused latitude/altitude pattern of atmospheric temperature change can be identified with high statistical confidence in satellite data. Results are robust to current uncertainties in models and observations. Virtually all previous research in this area has attempted to discriminate an anthropogenic signal from internal variability. Here, we present evidence that a human-caused signal can also be identified relative to the larger "total" natural variability arising from sources internal to the climate system, solar irradiance changes, and volcanic forcing. Consistent signal identification occurs because both internal and total natural variability (as simulated by state-of-the-art models) cannot produce sustained global-scale tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling. Our results provide clear evidence for a discernible human influence on the thermal structure of the atmosphere.

Santer, Benjamin D.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Inserting New Technologies into Human-Computer Interfaces for Future Lunar and Mars Missions

Plans call for human cislunar operations and lunar surface access, to prepare for eventual Mars missions. NASA will also develop new opportunities in lunar orbit that provide the foundation and act as a gateway for human exploration deeper into the solar system. Current human spaceflight is complex and requires as many as fifty people to support the International Space Station (ISS) Mission Control Center (MCC) in Houston, Texas. These flight controllers in the front and back rooms of the MCC, serve as an extra pair of eyes overseeing the numerous station systems. Deep space missions - to the moon, Mars, and beyond - will be more complex and place challenging mission constraints on the crew. As the round-trip communication delays increase in deep space exploration, more on-board systems autonomy and functionality will be needed to maintain and control the vehicle. These mission constraints will change the Earth-based ground control approach and will demand efficient and effective human-computer interfaces (HCI) to control a highly complex vehicle or habitat system. All of this necessitates a different approach to designing and developing spacecraft and habitats. In the beginning of new human spaceflight programs, focus is typically on launch vehicle and uncrewed spacecraft design and development. The reasoning behind this focus to enable flight testing of an integrated launch vehicle and spacecraft system to ensure it will be safe enough to allow humans on board. This is an essential process for new spacecraft, however, the practical effect is a lack of funding for the spacecraft’s human interfaces development. It can be many years before the human interface development begins, putting it late in the spacecraft lifecycle, when almost all other spacecraft systems and subsystems are already in place. This forces the usage of existing and proven technologies for the HCI interfaces. We posit that putting the human first in a spacecraft design process will yield a more effective spacecraft for exploration and long duration missions. NASA Human Research Program (HRP) has identified inadequate HCI as a risk for future missions. New tools and procedures to aid the crew in operating a complex spacecraft will be required. This paper discusses ongoing activities in the development of the next generation HCI components and systems, and a new approach toward human interfaces for spacecraft.

Salazar, George A.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Directed Acyclic Graph Guidance Documentation

For over a decade, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has tracked and configuration-managed approximately 30 risks to astronaut health and performance that occur before, during and after spaceflight. The Human System Risk Board (HSRB), a Health and Medical Technical Authority (HMTA) Board at NASA Johnson Space Center, is the entity responsible for identifying, assessing, analyzing, and monitoring the official understanding of the risk or risk posture for each of the Human System Risks and determining – based on evaluation of the available evidence – when that risk posture changes. The ultimate purpose of tracking and researching these risks is to find ways to reduce the risk that astronaut crews face during spaceflight. Historically, research, development and operations relevant to one risk have been conducted in isolation from other risks; these individual risk ‘silos’ enabled initial characterization of each specific risk. In spaceflight however, the impact of exposure to risk for astronaut crews is cumulative, and not independent of exposures or other risks, as all the adverse effects of the spaceflight environment begin at launch, continue throughout the duration of the mission and in some cases across the lifetime of the crews. In January of 2020, the HSRB at NASA embarked on a pilot project designed to assess the potential value of causal diagramming as a tool to facilitate understanding these cumulative and interdependent effects as applied within Human System Risk management. This process uses directed acyclic graphs as a means of formalizing a shared mental model of the causal flow of risk among Risk Board stakeholders. Initially this model was to improve communication among those stakeholders, but the potential value exceeds communication alone. Formalization of the process for creating these causal diagrams will enable the creation of a composite risk network that is vetted by members of the NASA community and configuration managed. The causal diagrams are formulated as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to function as a type of knowledge graph for reference for the board and its stakeholders. This document outlines the pilot process, the standardized approaches, and guidance for risk custodian teams when creating and updating DAGs as a part of the NASA Human System Risk Management process.

Risk↗
NASA NTRS2013

Practical Application of PRA as an Integrated Design Tool for Space Systems

This paper presents the application of the first comprehensive Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) during the design phase of a joint NASA/NOAA weather satellite program, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Series R (GOES-R). GOES-R is the next generation weather satellite primarily to help understand the weather and help save human lives. PRA has been used at NASA for Human Space Flight for many years. PRA was initially adopted and implemented in the operational phase of manned space flight programs and more recently for the next generation human space systems. Since its first use at NASA, PRA has become recognized throughout the Agency as a method of assessing complex mission risks as part of an overall approach to assuring safety and mission success throughout project lifecycles. PRA is now included as a requirement during the design phase of both NASA next generation manned space vehicles as well as for high priority robotic missions. The influence of PRA on GOES-R design and operation concepts are discussed in detail. The GOES-R PRA is unique at NASA for its early implementation. It also represents a pioneering effort to integrate risks from both Spacecraft (SC) and Ground Segment (GS) to fully assess the probability of achieving mission objectives. PRA analysts were actively involved in system engineering and design engineering to ensure that a comprehensive set of technical risks were correctly identified and properly understood from a design and operations perspective. The analysis included an assessment of SC hardware and software, SC fault management system, GS hardware and software, common cause failures, human error, natural hazards, solar weather and infrastructure (such as network and telecommunications failures, fire). PRA findings directly resulted in design changes to reduce SC risk from micro-meteoroids. PRA results also led to design changes in several SC subsystems, e.g. propulsion, guidance, navigation and control (GNC), communications, mechanisms, and command and data handling (C&DH). The fault tree approach assisted in the development of the fault management system design. Human error analysis, which examined human response to failure, indicated areas where automation could reduce the overall probability of gaps in operation by half. In addition, the PRA brought to light many potential root causes of system disruptions, including earthquakes, inclement weather, solar storms, blackouts and other extreme conditions not considered in the typical reliability and availability analyses. Ultimately the PRA served to identify potential failures that, when mitigated, resulted in a more robust design, as well as to influence the program's concept of operations. The early and active integration of PRA with system and design engineering provided a well-managed approach for risk assessment that increased reliability and availability, optimized lifecyc1e costs, and unified the SC and GS developments.

Kalia, Prince↗