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NASA NTRS2014

Human Reliability and the Cost of Doing Business

Human error cannot be defined unambiguously in advance of it happening, it often becomes an error after the fact. The same action can result in a tragic accident for one situation or a heroic action given a more favorable outcome. People often forget that we employ humans in business and industry for the flexibility and capability to change when needed. In complex systems, operations are driven by their specifications of the system and the system structure. People provide the flexibility to make it work. Human error has been reported as being responsible for 60%‐80% of failures, accidents and incidents in high‐risk industries. We don't have to accept that all human errors are inevitable. Through the use of some basic techniques, many potential human error events can be addressed. There are actions that can be taken to reduce the risk of human error.

DeMott, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS2022

The Ozone–Climate Penalty Over South America and Africa By 2100

Climate change has the potential to increase surface ozone (O3) concentrations, known as the “ozone–climate penalty”, through changes to atmospheric chemistry, transport and dry deposition. In the tropics, the response of surface O3 to changing climate is relatively understudied but has important consequences for air pollution and human and ecosystem health. In this study, we evaluate the change in surface O3 due to climate change over South America and Africa using three state-of-the-art Earth system models that follow the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3-7.0 emission scenario from CMIP6. In order to quantify changes due to climate change alone, we evaluate the difference between simulations including climate change and simulations with a fixed present-day climate. We find that by 2100, models predict an ozone–climate penalty in areas where O3 is already predicted to be high due to the impacts of precursor emissions, namely urban and biomass burning areas, although on average, models predict a decrease in surface O3 due to climate change. We identify a small but robust positive trend in annual mean surface O3 over polluted areas. Additionally, during biomass burning seasons, seasonal mean O3 concentrations increase by 15 ppb (model range 12 to 18 ppb) in areas with substantial biomass burning such as the arc of deforestation in the Amazon. The ozone–climate penalty in polluted areas is shown to be driven by an increased rate of O3 chemical production, which is strongly influenced by NOx concentrations and is therefore specific to the emission pathway chosen. Multiple linear regression finds the change in NOx concentration to be a strong predictor of the change in O3 production, whereas increased isoprene emission rate is positively correlated with increased O3 destruction, suggesting NOx-limited conditions over the majority of tropical Africa and South America. However, models disagree on the role of climate change in remote, low-NOx regions, partly because of significant differences in NOx concentrations produced by each model. We also find that the magnitude and location of the ozone–climate penalty in the Congo Basin has greater inter-model variation than that in the Amazon, so further model development and validation are needed to constrain the response in central Africa. We conclude that if the climate were to change according to the emission scenario used here, models predict that forested areas in biomass burning locations and urban populations will be at increasing risk of high O3 exposure, irrespective of any direct impacts on O3 via the prescribed emission scenario.

Surface ozone↗

NASA NTRS2003

A quantitative study of oxygen as a metabolic regulator

An acute reduction in oxygen delivery to a tissue is associated with metabolic changes aimed at maintaining ATP homeostasis. However, given the complexity of the human bioenergetic system, it is difficult to determine quantitatively how cellular metabolic processes interact to maintain ATP homeostasis during stress (e.g., hypoxia, ischemia, and exercise). In particular, we are interested in determining mechanisms relating cellular oxygen concentration to observed metabolic responses at the cellular, tissue, organ, and whole body levels and in quantifying how changes in tissue oxygen availability affect the pathways of ATP synthesis and the metabolites that control these pathways. In this study, we extend a previously developed mathematical model of human bioenergetics, to provide a physicochemical framework that permits quantitative understanding of oxygen as a metabolic regulator. Specifically, the enhancement--sensitivity analysis--permits studying the effects of variations in tissue oxygenation and parameters controlling cellular respiration on glycolysis, lactate production, and pyruvate oxidation. The analysis can distinguish between parameters that must be determined accurately and those that require less precision, based on their effects on model predictions. This capability may prove to be important in optimizing experimental design, thus reducing use of animals.

Non-programmatic↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Descent Systems Study Presentation for Game Changing Development FY21 Annual Program Review

Previous NASA studies of landing human-scale payloads on Mars have concluded that supersonic retropropulsion (SRP), or using multiple retrorocket engines beginning at supersonic descent conditions, is an enabling technology. DSS is partnering with the Aerosciences Evaluation and Test Capabilities (AETC) office to conduct a SRP test in the Langley Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel (UPWT) to quantify the SRP prediction capabilities of multiple computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solvers for a range of model configurations, thrust magnitudes, and tunnel conditions.

Supersonic Retropropulsion↗

NASA NTRS1990

Modeling reality

Although powerful computers have allowed complex physical and manmade hardware systems to be modeled successfully, we have encountered persistent problems with the reliability of computer models for systems involving human learning, human action, and human organizations. This is not a misfortune; unlike physical and manmade systems, human systems do not operate under a fixed set of laws. The rules governing the actions allowable in the system can be changed without warning at any moment, and can evolve over time. That the governing laws are inherently unpredictable raises serious questions about the reliability of models when applied to human situations. In these domains, computers are better used, not for prediction and planning, but for aiding humans. Examples are systems that help humans speculate about possible futures, offer advice about possible actions in a domain, systems that gather information from the networks, and systems that track and support work flows in organizations.

Denning, Peter J.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Global change in the geosphere-biosphere: Initial priorities for an IGBP

Some of the factors are outlined that leads one to endorse the concept of focused, international geosphere-biosphere program, whose goal is to understand the interactive physical, chemical, and biological processes that regulate the Earth's unique environment for life, the changes that are occurring in this system, and the manner in which they are influenced by human actions. There is a pressing need to assess the consequence of human activities in the context of natural global change and to provide the body of knowledge necessary to chart a wise course to the future. A number of specific objectives were developed which leads to the conclusion that the need for new programs of observation of the Earth as a planet, a better understanding of the interactive processes that governs its changes, the development of a new generation of coupled modes, and the design of suitable tests to guide the development of these models and the understanding of the processes involved. Some general recommendations are summarized.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven predictions of the time remaining until critical global warming thresholds are reached

Leveraging artificial neural networks (ANNs) trained on climate model output, we use the spatial pattern of historical temperature observations to predict the time until critical global warming thresholds are reached. Although no observations are used during the training, validation, or testing, the ANNs accurately predict the timing of historical global warming from maps of historical annual temperature. The central estimate for the 1.5 °C global warming threshold is between 2033 and 2035, including a ±1σ range of 2028 to 2039 in the Intermediate (SSP2-4.5) climate forcing scenario, consistent with previous assessments. However, our data-driven approach also suggests a substantial probability of exceeding the 2 °C threshold even in the Low (SSP1-2.6) climate forcing scenario. While there are limitations to our approach, our results suggest a higher likelihood of reaching 2 °C in the Low scenario than indicated in some previous assessments—though the possibility that 2 °C could be avoided is not ruled out. Explainable AI methods reveal that the ANNs focus on particular geographic regions to predict the time until the global threshold is reached. Our framework provides a unique, data-driven approach for quantifying the signal of climate change in historical observations and for constraining the uncertainty in climate model projections. Given the substantial existing evidence of accelerating risks to natural and human systems at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, our results provide further evidence for high-impact climate change over the next three decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Envisioning U.S. Climate Predictions and Projections to Meet New Challenges

In the face of a changing climate, the understanding, predictions, and projections of natural and human systems are increasingly crucial to prepare and cope with extremes and cascading hazards, determine unexpected feedbacks and potential tipping points, inform long-term adaptation strategies, and guide mitigation approaches. Increasingly complex socio-economic systems require enhanced predictive information to support advanced practices. Such new predictive challenges drive the need to fully capitalize on ambitious scientific and technological opportunities. These include the unrealized potential for very high-resolution modeling of global-to-local Earth system processes across timescales, reduction of model biases, enhanced integration of human systems and the Earth Systems, better quantification of predictability and uncertainties; expedited science-to-service pathways, and co-production of actionable information with stakeholders. Enabling technological opportunities include exascale computing, advanced data storage, novel observations and powerful data analytics, including artificial intelligence and machine learning. Looking to generate community discussions on how to accelerate progress on U.S. climate predictions and projections, representatives of Federally-funded U.S. modeling groups outline here perspectives on a six-pillar national approach grounded in climate science that builds on the strengths of the U.S. modeling community and agency goals. This calls for an unprecedented level of coordination to capitalize on transformative opportunities, augmenting and complementing current modeling center capabilities and plans to support agency missions. Tangible outcomes include projections with horizontal spatial resolutions finer than 10 km, representing extremes and associated risks in greater detail, reduced model errors, better predictability estimates, and more customized projections to support next generation climate services.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1992

Earth science information: Planning for the integration and use of global change information

The Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) was founded in 1989 as a non-profit corporation dedicated to facilitating access to, use and understanding of global change information worldwide. The Consortium was created to cooperate and coordinate with organizations and researchers throughout the global change community to further access the most advanced technology, the latest scientific research, and the best information available for critical environmental decision making. CIESIN study efforts are guided by Congressional mandates to 'convene key present and potential users to assess the need for investment in integration of earth science information,' to 'outline the desirable pattern of interaction with the scientific and policy community,' and to 'develop recommendations and draft plans to achieve the appropriate level of effort in the use of earth science data for research and public policy purposes.' In addition, CIESIN is tasked by NASA to develop a data center that would extend the benefits of Earth Observing System (EOS) to the users of global change information related to human dimensions issues. For FY 1991, CIESIN focused on two main objectives. The first addressed the identification of information needs of global change research and non-research user groups worldwide. The second focused on an evaluation of the most efficient mechanisms for making this information available in usable forms.

Lousma, Jack R.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Regional mapping of forest canopy water content and biomass using AIRSAR images over BOREAS study area

In recent years, monitoring vegetation biomass over various climate zones has become the primary focus of several studies interested in assessing the role of the ecosystem responses to climate change and human activities. Airborne and spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) systems provide a useful tool to directly estimate biomass due to its sensitivity to structural and moisture characteristics of vegetation canopies. Even though the sensitivity of SAR data to total aboveground biomass has been successfully demonstrated in many controlled experiments over boreal forests and forest plantations, so far, no biomass estimation algorithm has been developed. This is mainly due to the fact that the SAR data, even at lowest frequency (P-band) saturates at biomass levels of about 200 tons/ha, and the structure and moisture information in the SAR signal forces the estimation algorithm to be forest type dependent. In this paper, we discuss the development of a hybrid forest biomass algorithm which uses a SAR derived land cover map in conjunction with a forest backscatter model and an inversion algorithm to estimate forest canopy water content. It is shown that unlike the direct biomass estimation from SAR data, the estimation of water content does not depend on the seasonal and/or environmental conditions. The total aboveground biomass can then be derived from canopy water content for each type of forest by incorporating other ecological information. Preliminary results from this technique over several boreal forest stands indicate that (1) the forest biomass can be estimated with reasonable accuracy, and (2) the saturation level of the SAR signal can be enhanced by separating the crown and trunk biomass in the inversion algorithm. We have used the JPL AIRSAR data over BOREAS southern study area to test the algorithm and to generate regional scale water content and biomass maps. The results are compared with ground data and the sources of errors are discussed. Several SAR images in synoptic modes are used to generate the parameter maps. The maps are then combined to generate mosaic maps over the BOREAS modeling grid.

Saatchi, Sasan↗

NASA NTRS1997

Development of Human Muscle Protein Measurement with MRI

It is known that micro-gravity has a strong influence on the human musculoskeletal system. A number of studies have shown that significant changes in skeletal muscles occur in both space flight and bedrest simulation. In our 5 week bedrest study, the cross-sectional area of soleus-gastrocnemius decreased about 12% while the cross-sectional area of anterior calf muscles decreased about 4%. Using volume measurements, these losses increased after 17 weeks to approximately 30% and 21% respectively. Significant muscle atrophy was also found on the SL-J crew members after only 8 days in space. It is important that these effects are fully understood so that countermeasures can be developed. The same knowledge might also be useful in preventing muscle atrophy related to other medical problems. A major problem with anatomical measurements of muscle during bed rest and microgravity is the influence of fluid shifts and water balance on the measurement of muscle volume, especially when the exposure duration is short and the atrophy is relatively small. Fluid shifts were documented in Skylab by visual observations of blood vessel distention, rapid changes in limb volume, center of mass measurements and subjective descriptions such as puffy faces and head fullness. It has been reported that the muscle water content of biopsied soleus muscles decreased following 8 hours of head down tilt bed rest. Three aspects of fluid shifts that can affect volume measurements are: first, the shift of fluid that occurs whenever there is a change from upright to a recumbent position and vice versa; second, the potential for fluid accumulation in the lower limbs resulting from muscle damage caused by overextending atrophied muscle or swelling caused by deconditioned precapillary sphincter muscles during reambulation; third, the net change of hydration level during and after bed rest or spaceflight. Because of these transitory fluid shifts, muscle protein is expected to represent muscle capacity better than does muscle volume. The purpose of this study is to test the feasibility of using MRI to quantify of muscle protein and water content changes in muscle.

Lin, Chen↗

NASA NTRS2012

NASA Human Health and Performance Strategy

In May 2007, what was then the Space Life Sciences Directorate, issued the 2007 Space Life Sciences Strategy for Human Space Exploration. In January 2012, leadership and key directorate personnel were once again brought together to assess the current and expected future environment against its 2007 Strategy and the Agency and Johnson Space Center goals and strategies. The result was a refined vision and mission, and revised goals, objectives, and strategies. One of the first changes implemented was to rename the directorate from Space Life Sciences to Human Health and Performance to better reflect our vision and mission. The most significant change in the directorate from 2007 to the present is the integration of the Human Research Program and Crew Health and Safety activities. Subsequently, the Human Health and Performance Directorate underwent a reorganization to achieve enhanced integration of research and development with operations to better support human spaceflight and International Space Station utilization. These changes also enable a more effective and efficient approach to human system risk mitigation. Since 2007, we have also made significant advances in external collaboration and implementation of new business models within the directorate and the Agency, and through two newly established virtual centers, the NASA Human Health and Performance Center and the Center of Excellence for Collaborative Innovation. Our 2012 Strategy builds upon these successes to address the Agency s increased emphasis on societal relevance and being a leader in research and development and innovative business and communications practices. The 2012 Human Health and Performance Vision is to lead the world in human health and performance innovations for life in space and on Earth. Our mission is to enable optimization of human health and performance throughout all phases of spaceflight. All HHPD functions are ultimately aimed at achieving this mission. Our activities enable mission success, optimizing human health and productivity in space before, during, and after the actual spaceflight experience of our crews, and include support for ground-based functions. Many of our spaceflight innovations also provide solutions for terrestrial challenges, thereby enhancing life on Earth. Our strategic goals are aimed at leading human exploration and ISS utilization, leading human health and performance internationally, excelling in management and advancement of innovations in health and human system integration, and expanding relevance to life on Earth and creating enduring support and enthusiasm for space exploration.

Davis, Jeffrey R.↗

NASA NTRS2012

NASA Human Health and Performance Strategy

In May 2007, what was then the Space Life Sciences Directorate, issued the 2007 Space Life Sciences Strategy for Human Space Exploration. In January 2012, leadership and key directorate personnel were once again brought together to assess the current and expected future environment against its 2007 Strategy and the Agency and Johnson Space Center goals and strategies. The result was a refined vision and mission, and revised goals, objectives, and strategies. One of the first changes implemented was to rename the directorate from Space Life Sciences to Human Health and Performance to better reflect our vision and mission. The most significant change in the directorate from 2007 to the present is the integration of the Human Research Program and Crew Health and Safety activities. Subsequently, the Human Health and Performance Directorate underwent a reorganization to achieve enhanced integration of research and development with operations to better support human spaceflight and International Space Station utilization. These changes also enable a more effective and efficient approach to human system risk mitigation. Since 2007, we have also made significant advances in external collaboration and implementation of new business models within the directorate and the Agency, and through two newly established virtual centers, the NASA Human Health and Performance Center and the Center of Excellence for Collaborative Innovation. Our 2012 Strategy builds upon these successes to address the Agency's increased emphasis on societal relevance and being a leader in research and development and innovative business and communications practices. The 2012 Human Health and Performance Vision is to lead the world in human health and performance innovations for life in space and on Earth. Our mission is to enable optimization of human health and performance throughout all phases of spaceflight. All HH&P functions are ultimately aimed at achieving this mission. Our activities enable mission success, optimizing human health and productivity in space before, during, and after the actual spaceflight experience of our crews, and include support for ground-‐ based functions. Many of our spaceflight innovations also provide solutions for terrestrial challenges, thereby enhancing life on Earth. Our strategic goals are aimed at leading human exploration and ISS utilization, leading human health and performance internationally, excelling in management and advancement of innovations in health and human system integration, and expanding relevance to life on Earth and creating enduring support and enthusiasm for space exploration.

Davis, Jeffrey R.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Marginal Damage of Methane Emissions: Ozone Impacts on Agriculture

Methane directly contributes to air pollution, as an ozone precursor, and to climate change, generating physical and economic damages to different systems, namely agriculture, vegetation, energy, human health, or biodiversity. The methane-related damages to climate, measured as the Social Cost of Methane, and to human health have been analyzed by different studies and considered by government rulemaking in the last decades, but the ozone-related damages to crop revenues associated to methane emissions have not been incorporated to policy agenda. Using a combination of the Global Change Analysis Model and the TM5-FASST Scenario Screening Tool, we estimate that global marginal agricultural damages range from ~ 423 to 556 $2010/t-CH 4 , of which 98 $2010/t-CH 4 occur in the USA, which is the most affected region due to its role as a major crop producer, followed by China, EU-15, and India. These damages would represent 39–59% of the climate damages and 28–64% of the human health damages associated with methane emissions by previous studies. The marginal damages to crop revenues calculated in this study complement the damages from methane to climate and human health, and provides valuable information to be considered in future cost-benefits analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Limited increases in Arctic offshore oil and gas production with climate change and the implications for energy markets

Climate change impacts on sea ice thickness is opening access to offshore Arctic resources. The degree to which these resources are exploited will depend on sea-ice conditions, technology costs, international energy markets, and the regulatory environment. We use an integrated human-Earth system model, GCAM, to explore the effects of spatial–temporal patterns of sea-ice loss under climate change on future Arctic offshore oil and gas extraction, considering interactions with global energy markets and emission reduction scenarios. We find that under SSP5, a “fossil-fueled development” scenario, the effects of sea-ice loss are larger for Arctic offshore oil production than gas. Under SSP5, future extraction of Arctic offshore oil and gas through 2100 adds roughly 0.8–2.6 EJ/year to oil and gas markets but does not have large impacts on global oil and gas markets. Surprisingly, a low-carbon scenario results in greater Arctic offshore oil production to offset the more emissions-intensive unconventional oil production.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2000

A Quantitative Study of Oxygen as a Metabolic Regulator

An acute reduction in oxygen delivery to a tissue is associated with metabolic changes aimed at maintaining ATP homeostasis. However, given the complexity of the human bio-energetic system, it is difficult to determine quantitatively how cellular metabolic processes interact to maintain ATP homeostasis during stress (e.g., hypoxia, ischemia, and exercise). In particular, we are interested in determining mechanisms relating cellular oxygen concentration to observed metabolic responses at the cellular, tissue, organ, and whole body levels and in quantifying how changes in tissue oxygen availability affect the pathways of ATP synthesis and the metabolites that control these pathways. In this study; we extend a previously developed mathematical model of human bioenergetics, to provide a physicochemical framework that permits quantitative understanding of oxygen as a metabolic regulator. Specifically, the enhancement - sensitivity analysis - permits studying the effects of variations in tissue oxygenation and parameters controlling cellular respiration on glycolysis, lactate production, and pyruvate oxidation. The analysis can distinguish between parameters that must be determined accurately and those that require less precision, based on their effects on model predictions. This capability may prove to be important in optimizing experimental design, thus reducing use of animals.

Radhakrishnan, Krishnan↗

NASA NTRS2000

Science Writers' Guide to TERRA

The launch of NASA's Terra spacecraft marks a new era of comprehensive monitoring of the Earth's atmosphere, oceans, and continents from a single space-based platform. Data from the five Terra instruments will create continuous, long-term records of the state of the land, oceans, and atmosphere. Together with data from other satellite systems launched by NASA and other countries, Terra will inaugurate a new self-consistent data record that will be gathered over the next 15 years. The science objectives of NASAs Earth Observing System (EOS) program are to provide global observations and scientific understanding of land cover change and global productivity, climate variability and change, natural hazards, and atmospheric ozone. Observations by the Terra instruments will: provide the first global and seasonal measurements of the Earth system, including such critical functions as biological productivity of the land and oceans, snow and ice, surface temperature, clouds, water vapor, and land cover; improve our ability to detect human impacts on the Earth system and climate, identify the "fingerprint" of human activity on climate, and predict climate change by using the new global observations in climate models; help develop technologies for disaster prediction, characterization, and risk reduction from wildfires, volcanoes, floods, and droughts, and start long-term monitoring of global climate change and environmental change.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2025

Future Spatially Explicit Patterns of Land Transitions in the United States With Multiple Stressors

Climate change, income and population growth, and changing diets are major drivers of the global food system with implications for land use change. Land use in the U.S. will be affected directly by local and regional forces and indirectly through international trade. In order to investigate the effects of several potential forces on land use changes in the U.S., we advanced capabilities in representing the interactions between natural and human systems by linking a multisectoral and multiregional socio-economic model of the world economy to a model that downscales land use to a 0.5°grid scale. This enables us to translate regional projections of future land use into higher-resolution representations of time-evolving land cover (effectively spatially explicit land use transitions). We applied the framework over the U.S., with a particular interest in the Mississippi River Basin and its four sub-basins, to consider how a range of global drivers affect land use and cover in the target regions. Our results show that under scenarios of high pressure on the world food system a comparative advantage in livestock production amplifies the recent trend toward less cropland and more pastures in the U.S. Under low pressures on the world food system agricultural land is used less intensively. However, there can be key differences among the various land-use transitions at the sub- basin scale. Overall, these results highlighted the need for high resolution details to explicitly understand the implications of land use change on environmental impacts such as carbon storage, soil erosion, chemical use, hydrology, and water quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗