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At least 199 records · Page 11

Modeling Principles Using the Relation Between Lagrange Multipliers and Bond Graphs

Final document is attached. Modeling dynamic systems by bond graphs has become state of the art technology since hundreds of researchers around the world have incorporated the technology in many fields of engineering and science. The legacy of its invertor Prof. Henry Paynter at MIT in 1959 is now a fundamental and practical technique to understand reality by building computer models. This paper addresses a particular aspect of this technology when modeling of mechanical systems require relaxation of constraints by means of Lagrange principles. Lagrange's equations are a useful means of describing and solving systems with kinematic constraints. Lagrange multipliers are variables used in equations to find the extremes of multivariate functions. Here we explore the relation of Lagrange multipliers to solve modeling difficulties of a space vehicle with equations with dependent derivatives. Lagrange multipliers were used in conjunction with bond graphs to simulate a system where joints of kinematic linkages produce dependent derivatives. NASA's Morpheus Project lunar lander was used as a case study. The Morpheus Project is a terrestrial test vehicle designed to fly the terminal descent trajectory of a lunar lander to advance the Autonomous Landing Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT). An objective of this study is to apply the modeling approach herein to capture the dynamic movement of the lander as the propellant is sloshed and consumed. This paper expands further the analysis presented by (Granda, J J. Nguyen, L, Carlson, T, Sahragard-Monfared, G., Fornalski, E., Brocker 2016). Using an automated approach bond graph models of state space equations were generated using the Computer Aided Modeling Program (CAMPG). Integral causality models and derivative causality models were considered in order to find the simpler solution for the mathematical dependencies produced in modeling this vehicle.

Granda, Jose J.↗

Plant defensin MtDef4–derived antifungal peptide with multiple modes of action and potential as a bio–inspired fungicide

Chemical fungicides have been instrumental in protecting crops from fungal diseases. However, increasing fungal resistance to many of the single-site chemical fungicides calls for the development of new antifungal agents with novel modes of action (MoA). The sequence-divergent cysteine-rich antifungal defensins with multisite MoA are promising starting templates for design of novel peptide-based fungicides. Here, we experimentally tested such a set of 17-amino-acid peptides containing the γ-core motif of the antifungal plant defensin MtDef4. These designed peptides exhibited antifungal properties different from those of MtDef4. Focused analysis of a lead peptide, GMA4CG_V6, showed that it was a random coil in solution with little or no secondary structure elements. Additionally, it exhibited potent cation-tolerant antifungal activity against the plant fungal pathogen Botrytis cinerea, the causal agent of grey mould disease in fruits and vegetables. Its multisite MoA involved localization predominantly to the plasma membrane, permeabilization of the plasma membrane, rapid internalization into the vacuole and cytoplasm, and affinity for the bioactive phosphoinositides phosphatidylinositol 3-phosphate (PI3P), PI4P, and PI5P. The sequence motif RRRW was identified as a major determinant of the antifungal activity of this peptide. While topical spray application of GMA4CG_V6 on Nicotiana benthamiana and tomato plants provided preventive and curative suppression of grey mould disease symptoms, the peptide was not internalized into plant cells. Our findings open the possibility that truncated and modified defensin-derived peptides containing the γ-core sequence could serve as promising candidates for further development of bio-inspired fungicides.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Subseasonal Representation and Predictability of North American Weather Regimes Using Cluster Analysis

Abstract This study focuses on assessing the representation and predictability of North American weather regimes, which are persistent large-scale atmospheric patterns, in a set of initialized subseasonal reforecasts created using the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). The k -means clustering was used to extract four key North American (10°–70°N, 150°–40°W) weather regimes within ERA5 reanalysis, which were used to interpret CESM2 subseasonal forecast performance. Results show that CESM2 can recreate the climatology of the four main North American weather regimes with skill but exhibits biases during later lead times with overoccurrence of the West Coast high regime and underoccurrence of the Greenland high and Alaskan ridge regimes. Overall, the West Coast high and Pacific trough regimes exhibited higher predictability within CESM2, partly related to El Niño. Despite biases, several reforecasts were skillful and exhibited high predictability during later lead times, which could be partly attributed to skillful representation of the atmosphere from the tropics to extratropics upstream of North America. The high predictability at the subseasonal time scale of these case-study examples was manifested as an “ensemble realignment,” in which most ensemble members agreed on a prediction despite ensemble trajectory dispersion during earlier lead times. Weather regimes were also shown to project distinct temperature and precipitation anomalies across North America that largely agree with observational products. This study further demonstrates that unsupervised learning methods can be used to uncover sources and limits of subseasonal predictability, along with systematic biases present in numerical prediction systems. Significance Statement North American weather regimes are large-scale atmospheric patterns that can persist for several days. Their skillful subseasonal (2 weeks or greater) prediction can provide valuable lead time to prepare for temperature and precipitation anomalies that can stress energy and water resources. The purpose of this study was to assess the climatological representation and subseasonal predictability of four key North American weather regimes using a research subseasonal prediction system and clustering analysis. We found that the Pacific trough and West Coast high regimes exhibited higher predictability than other regimes and that skillful representation of conditions across the tropics and extratropics can increase predictability during later lead times. Future work will quantify causal pathways associated with high predictability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Decision-making based on Markov decision process in integrated artificial reasoning framework—Part I: Theory

This paper presents a decision-making framework based on an integrated artificial reasoning framework and Markov decision process (MDP). The integrated artificial reasoning framework provides a physics-based approach that converts system information into state transition models, and the analysis result will be represented by the transition probabilities that can be used with an MDP to find a traceable and explainable optimal pathway. A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is well suited for representing the structure of an MDP. The causality information among process variables (or among subsystems) is mathematically represented in a DBN by the conditional probabilities of the node’s states provided different probabilities of the parent node’s states. To define node states in a physically understandable manner, we used multilevel flow modeling (MFM). An MFM follows the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws and supports the selection of process variables that represent the system of interest so that causal relations among process variables are properly captured. An MFM-based DBN supports developing state transition models in an MDP to capture the effect of process variables of system having physical relations. The operators of the target system can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from component degradation or random failures. We analyzed a simplified exemplary system to illustrate an optimal operational policy using the suggested approach.

Markov decision process↗

The relationship between lifestyle regularity and subjective sleep quality

In previous work we have developed a diary instrument-the Social Rhythm Metric (SRM), which allows the assessment of lifestyle regularity-and a questionnaire instrument--the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), which allows the assessment of subjective sleep quality. The aim of the present study was to explore the relationship between lifestyle regularity and subjective sleep quality. Lifestyle regularity was assessed by both standard (SRM-17) and shortened (SRM-5) metrics; subjective sleep quality was assessed by the PSQI. We hypothesized that high lifestyle regularity would be conducive to better sleep. Both instruments were given to a sample of 100 healthy subjects who were studied as part of a variety of different experiments spanning a 9-yr time frame. Ages ranged from 19 to 49 yr (mean age: 31.2 yr, s.d.: 7.8 yr); there were 48 women and 52 men. SRM scores were derived from a two-week diary. The hypothesis was confirmed. There was a significant (rho = -0.4, p < 0.001) correlation between SRM (both metrics) and PSQI, indicating that subjects with higher levels of lifestyle regularity reported fewer sleep problems. This relationship was also supported by a categorical analysis, where the proportion of "poor sleepers" was doubled in the "irregular types" group as compared with the "non-irregular types" group. Thus, there appears to be an association between lifestyle regularity and good sleep, though the direction of causality remains to be tested.

NASA Program Biomedical Research and Countermeasur↗

Data driven pathway analysis and forecast of global warming and sea level rise

Climate change is a critical issue of our time, and its causes, pathways, and forecasts remain a topic of broader discussion. In this paper, we present a novel data driven pathway analysis framework to identify the key processes behind mean global temperature and sea level rise, and to forecast the magnitude of their increase from the present to 2100. Based on historical data and dynamic statistical modeling alone, we have established the causal pathways that connect increasing greenhouse gas emissions to increasing global mean temperature and sea level, with its intermediate links encompassing humidity, sea ice coverage, and glacier mass, but not for sunspot numbers. Our results indicate that if no action is taken to curb anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the global average temperature would rise to an estimated 3.28 °C (2.46–4.10 °C) above its pre-industrial level while the global sea level would be an estimated 573 mm (474–671 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100. However, if countries adhere to the greenhouse gas emission regulations outlined in the 2021 United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP26), the rise in global temperature would lessen to an average increase of 1.88 °C (1.43–2.33 °C) above its pre-industrial level, albeit still higher than the targeted 1.5 °C, while the sea level increase would reduce to 449 mm (389–509 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Identifying human failure events (HFEs) for external hazard probabilistic risk assessment

In recent years, several advancements in nuclear power plant (NPP) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) have been driven by increased understanding of external hazards, plant response, and uncertainties. However, major sources of uncertainty associated with external hazard PRA remain. One important source is how risk-significant human actions that are carried out to enable plant response and recovery from natural hazards cause the close coupling of physical impacts on plants and overall plant risk during these hazard events. This makes human reliability and human-plant interactions important elements to consider in resolving PRA gaps in external hazards. One of the challenges in considering human response in external hazard probabilistic risk assessment (XHPRA) is that most existing human reliability analysis (HRA) models were not developed for assessing actions outside the control room (termed ex-control room actions) and hazard response. To support this new scope, HRA models will need to be developed or modified to support identification of human activities, causal factors, and uncertainties inherent in external hazard response, thereby providing insights regarding event timing and physical event conditions as they relate to human performance. In this study, there are two main objectives: (1) evaluate the applicability of an existing cognitive-based HRA method, Phoenix, to ex-control room actions, and (2) identify sources of uncertainty to be characterized or reduced in order to make this method suitable for XHPRA. The first step of such work is performed by assessing the suitability of existing HRA methods to support identifying human failure events (HFEs) for human response to flooding hazards. These HFEs are human actions or inactions that are involved in human responses to flooding hazards and could contribute to the loss of a critical function for the plant in the scenario being examined. Here, in this work, decomposition analyses using the cognitive-based Phoenix HRA model are used to identify HFEs. The Phoenix method was found to be suitable for analyzing ex-control room actions as well as identifying specific HFEs and underlying crew failure modes (CFMs). However, the method's suitability for use in ex-control room actions would benefit from expanding the available CFMs to accommodate a larger variety of physical and communication tasks.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Visual information processing; Proceedings of the Meeting, Orlando, FL, Apr. 20-22, 1992

Topics discussed in these proceedings include nonlinear processing and communications; feature extraction and recognition; image gathering, interpolation, and restoration; image coding; and wavelet transform. Papers are presented on noise reduction for signals from nonlinear systems; driving nonlinear systems with chaotic signals; edge detection and image segmentation of space scenes using fractal analyses; a vision system for telerobotic operation; a fidelity analysis of image gathering, interpolation, and restoration; restoration of images degraded by motion; and information, entropy, and fidelity in visual communication. Attention is also given to image coding methods and their assessment, hybrid JPEG/recursive block coding of images, modified wavelets that accommodate causality, modified wavelet transform for unbiased frequency representation, and continuous wavelet transform of one-dimensional signals by Fourier filtering.

Huck, Friedrich O.↗

Granger Causality for prediction in Dynamic Mode Decomposition: Application to power systems

Here, the dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) technique extracts the dominant modes characterizing the innate dynamical behavior of the system within the measurement data. For appropriate identification of dominant modes from the measurement data, the DMD algorithm necessitates ensuring the quality of the input measurement data sequences. On that account, for validating the usability of the dataset for the DMD algorithm, the paper proposed two conditions: Persistence of excitation (PE) and the Granger Causality Test (GCT). The virtual data sequences are designed with the hankel matrix representation such that the dimensions of the subspace spanning the essential system modes are increased with the addition of new state variables. The PE condition provides the lower bound for the trajectory length, and the GCT provides the order of the model. Satisfying the PE condition enables estimating an approximate linear model, but the predictability with the identified model is only assured with the temporal causation among data searched with GCT. The proposed methodology is validated with the application for coherency identification (CI) in a multi-machine power system (MMPS), an essential phenomenon in transient stability analysis. The significance of PE condition and GCT is demonstrated through various case studies implemented on 22 bus six generator system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Hazard-Based Model of Activity Generation Using Vehicle Trajectory Data

Travel behavior modeling suffers from lack of longitudinal data due to the high cost of procurement and difficulty with ensuring data quality. In the recent years ubiquitous data intercepted from social media, cell detail record, GPS traces are increasingly being explored to analyze human mobility. However, these data lack key demographic information which limits their use for developing causal models of traveler behavior. The primary contribution of the paper lies in using vehicle trajectory data from Ann Arbor along with multiple other data sources for developing a hazard-based activity generation model. The different category of data used in the analysis include (i) vehicle trajectory data (VTD), (ii) American Census Survey (ACS), (iii) land use data, (iv) household travel survey (HTS) data, and (v) smart location data from Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Home and work are identified as the two most frequently visited locations from the VTD and validated against land use categories of the region. Next a random utility-based model is developed using HTS data to identify other activity purposes as a function of the polynomials of distance from home, activity duration and departure time. The developed model is then applied to identify the non-home activity purposes in the VTD. Demographic and accessibility information are appended to the VTD from ACS and smart location databases respectively. The fmal database is then used to develop a hazard-based activity generation model. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

activity generation↗

XA21-mediated resistance to Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzae is dose dependent

The rice receptor kinase XA21 confers broad-spectrum resistance to Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzae ( Xoo ), the causal agent of rice bacterial blight disease. To investigate the relationship between the expression level of XA21 and resulting resistance, we generated independent HA-XA21 transgenic rice lines accumulating the XA21 immune receptor fused with an HA epitope tag. Whole-genome sequence analysis identified the T-DNA insertion sites in sixteen independent T0 events. Further, through quantification of the HA-XA21 protein and assessment of the resistance to Xoo strain PXO99 in six independent transgenic lines, we observed that XA21-mediated resistance is dose dependent. In contrast, based on the four agronomic traits quantified in these experiments, yield is unlikely to be affected by the expression level of HA-XA21 . These findings extend our knowledge of XA21-mediated defense and contribute to the growing number of well-defined genomic landing pads in the rice genome that can be targeted for gene insertion without compromising yield.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

In situ spectroradiometric quantification of ERTS data

The task of correlating in situ spectral reflectance measurements with ERTS imagery has commenced. A method of additive color analysis of a single multispectral band taken on different dates indicates that ERTS-1 bulk images have sufficient spatial and spectral fidelity to show indications of the presence of soil moisture in desert playas and changes in soil moisture with time. The chain of causality between soil moisture, in situ spectral reflectance, and ERTS multispectral scanner image density remains to be established during the subsequent phases of this study.

Yost, E.↗

Analyzing Changes in the Complexity of Climate in the Last Four Decades Using MERRA-2 Radiation Data

The energy balance of the Earth is controlled by the shortwave and longwave radiation emitted to space. Changes in the thermodynamic state of the system over time afect climate and are noticeable when viewing the system as a whole. In this paper, we study the changes in the complexity of climate in the last four decades using data from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). First, we study the complexity of the shortwave and longwave radiation felds independently using Approximate Entropy and Sample Entropy, observing that the rate of complexity change is faster for shortwave radiation. Then, we study the causality of those changes using Transfer Entropy to capture the non-linear dynamics of climate, showing that the changes are mainly driven by the variations in shortwave radiation. The observed behavior of climatic complexity could be explained by the changes in cloud amount, and we research that possibility by investigating its evolution from a complexity perspective using data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP).

Delgado-Bonal, Alfonso↗

Image-based time series analysis to establish differential disease progression for two Fusarium head blight pathogens in oat spikelets with variable resistance

Oat-based value-added products have increased their value as healthy foodstuff. Fusarium head blight (FHB) infections and the mycotoxins accumulated to the oat seeds, however, pose a challenge to oat production. The FHB infections are predicted to become more prevalent in the future changing climates and under more limited use of fungicides. Both these factors increase the pressure for breeding new resistant cultivars. Until now, however, genetic links in oats against FHB infection have been difficult to identify. Therefore, there is a great need for more effective breeding efforts, including improved phenotyping methods allowing time series analysis and the identification of molecular markers during disease progression. To these ends, dissected spikelets of several oat genotypes with different resistance profiles were studied by image-based methods during disease progression by Fusarium culmorum or F. langsethiae species. The chlorophyll fluorescence of each pixel in the spikelets was recorded after inoculation by the two Fusarium spp., and the progression of the infections was analyzed by calculating the mean maximum quantum yield of PSII (F v /F m ) values for each spikelet. The recorded values were (i) the change in the photosynthetically active area of the spikelet as percentage of its initial size, and (ii) the mean of F v /F m values of all fluorescent pixels per spikelet post inoculation, both indicative of the progression of the FHB disease. The disease progression was successfully monitored, and different stages of the infection could be defined along the time series. The data also confirmed the differential rate of disease progression by the two FHB causal agents. In addition, oat varieties with variable responses to the infections were indicated.

oats↗

Analysis and Prediction of Weather Impacted Ground Stop Operations

When the air traffic demand is expected to exceed the available airport's capacity for a short period of time, Ground Stop (GS) operations are implemented by Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Traffic Flow Management (TFM). The GS requires departing aircraft meeting specific criteria to remain on the ground to achieve reduced demands at the constrained destination airport until the end of the GS. This paper provides a high-level overview of the statistical distributions as well as causal factors for the GSs at the major airports in the United States. The GS's character, the weather impact on GSs, GS variations with delays, and the interaction between GSs and Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) are investigated. The machine learning methods are used to generate classification models that map the historical airport weather forecast, schedule traffic, and other airport conditions to implemented GS/GDP operations and the models are evaluated using the cross-validations. This modeling approach produced promising results as it yielded an 85% overall classification accuracy to distinguish the implemented GS days from the normal days without GS and GDP operations and a 71% accuracy to differentiate the GS and GDP implemented days from the GDP only days.

Analysis↗

Operation Optimization using Reinforcement Learning with Integrated Artificial Reasoning Framework

In large and complex systems, operational decision-making requires a systematic analysis with a vast amount of data from both process parameters and component status monitoring. In this paper, we present an integrated artificial reasoning approach for system state transition models that can help operational decision-making with explainable and traceable reasoning. The integrated artificial reasoning framework is a physics-based approach of defining the system structure in a Bayesian network, so we leveraged it in a Markov decision process (MDP) for finding optimal operational solutions. In our proposed framework, the MDP is implemented on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), which represents causalities in a system. The multilevel flow modeling was utilized in order to extract these causalities in a more efficient and objective manner. Since multilevel flow modeling is based on the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws, the target system is decomposed into several mass, energy, and information structures, which serve as the basis for a DBN. The MDP consists of the processes of finding a solution for the Bellman equation, which can be derived from the conditional probability equations of the constructed DBN. System operators can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from the component degradation process or random failures. We analyzed a simplified example system to illustrate finding an optimal operational policy with this approach.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Concentration-response gene expression analysis in zebrafish reveals phenotypically-anchored transcriptional responses to retene

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are ubiquitous environmental contaminants and are associated with human disease. Canonically, many PAHs induce toxicity via activation of the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR) pathway. While the interaction between PAHs and the AHR is well-established, understanding which AHR-regulated transcriptional effects directly result in observable phenotypes and which are adaptive or benign is important to better understand PAH toxicity. Retene is a frequently detected PAH in environmental sampling and has been associated with AHR2-dependent developmental toxicity in zebrafish, though its mechanism of toxicity has not been fully elucidated. To interrogate transcriptional changes causally associated with retene toxicity, we conducted whole-animal RNA sequencing at 48 hours post-fertilization after exposure to eight retene concentrations. The concentrations were selected to produce effects ranging from no phenotype to mortality and malformations in 100% of animals at 5 days post-fertilization. We identified a concentration-response relationship between retene teratogenicity and differential gene expression in both number of DEGs and magnitude of expression change. Elevated expression of cyp1a at retene concentrations below the threshold for teratogenicity suggested that while cyp1a expression is a sensitive biomarker of AHR activation, it may be too sensitive to serve as a biomarker of AHR-dependent teratogenicity. Genes differentially expressed at only non-teratogenic concentrations were enriched for transforming growth factor-ß (TGF-ß) signaling pathway disruption while DEGs identified at only teratogenic concentrations were significantly enriched for response to xenobiotic stimulus and reduction-oxidation reaction activity. DEGs which spanned both non-teratogenic and teratogenic concentrations showed similar disrupted biological processes to those unique to teratogenic concentrations, indicating these processes were disrupted at low exposure concentrations. Gene co-expression network analysis identified several gene modules, including those associated with PAHs and AHR2 activation. One, Module 7, was strongly enriched for AHR2-associated genes and contained the strongest responses to retene. Benchmark concentration (BMC) of Module 7 genes identified a median BMC of 7.5 µM, nearly the highest retene concentration with no associated teratogenicity, supporting the hypothesis that Module 7 genes are largely responsible for retene toxicity.

Toxin, Zebrafish, Retene, Transcriptomics, network↗

Evaluating ecosystem water use efficiency under drought stress: a case study of the Helan Mountain region, northwest China

Context Water use efficiency (WUE) is a fundamental ecological indicator links carbon assimilation and water loss in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding its responses to drought stress is essential for adaptive ecosystem management, particularly in climate-sensitive mountain landscapes. Objectives This study aimed to investigate drought-driven variations in WUE across major vegetation types in the Helan Mountain region of Northwest China. Specifically, we sought to identify dominant ecological drivers of WUE variability and to disentangle their relative importance and causal pathways. Methods We quantified WUE using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products and the Drought Severity Index (DSI) data from 2001 to 2020. To examine WUE – drought relationships across contrasting vegetation types, we employed a spatially explicit analytical framework integrating Random Forest (RF) modeling, partial correlation analysis, and structural equation modeling (SEM). Results Regional WUE exhibited relatively stable interannual dynamics, yet pronounced spatial heterogeneity that was strongly modulated by drought conditions. Vegetation properties, particularly Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), emerged as the dominant determinants of WUE, with NDVI alone explaining over 20% of its spatial variance in forest and grassland during non-drought periods. SEM analyses revealed that climate forcing influenced WUE mainly through indirect pathways mediated by soil moisture availability and vegetation structural dynamics, rather than through direct climatic controls. Among all regulating factors, LAI acted as the central control node governing ecosystem carbon–water coupling. In contrast, short-term climatic stress, especially atmospheric demand and drought duration, exerted weak or negative direct effects on WUE. Ecosystem-specific responses were observed, with croplands mainly regulated by soil water availability, whereas forests and grasslands showed more sensitive to atmospheric drought stress. Together, these results reveal a hierarchical control framework where soil–vegetation interactions mediate climate impacts on WUE, driving strong spatial heterogeneity in drought responses across mountain landscapes. Conclusions Our findings highlight the pivotal role of indirect drought effects mediated by vegetation and soil processes in shaping ecosystem WUE. The identified soil–vegetation–climate regulatory hierarchy provides mechanistic insight into landscape–scale drought sensitivity and supports integrated modeling approaches for evaluating ecosystem resilience and sustainable management in arid mountain regions.

China↗