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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Integrated Hydro-Terrestrial Modeling: Development of a National Capability

Water is one of our most important natural resources and is essential to our national economy and security. Multiple federal government agencies have mission elements that address national needs related to water. Each water-related agency champions a unique science and/or operational mission focused on advancing a portion of the nation’s ability to meet our water-related challenges. These diverse mission needs have engendered a rich and extensive base of water-related data and modeling capabilities. While useful for their intended purposes, these capabilities are not well integrated to address complex regional problems and overarching national problems. These major investments by a number of federal agencies, however, lay the foundation for an integrated hydro-terrestrial modeling and data infrastructure that will enhance knowledge, understanding, prediction, and management of the nation’s diverse water challenges. Creating a more seamless national hydro-terrestrial modeling and data capacity presents an enormous opportunity to advance operational as well as research capabilities leading to more effective water management. Advances are necessary not only in operational tools for forecasting but also in research to identify and resolve knowledge and data gaps that lead to unacceptable uncertainties in forecast outcomes. As such, close coordination across scientific, operational, and resource management communities is required. To this end, an interagency workshop on “Integrated Hydro-Terrestrial Modeling: Development of a National Capacity” was held at the National Science Foundation (NSF) headquarters in Alexandria, Virginia in September 2019, led jointly by the NSF, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and with broader interagency support provided through an interagency steering committee. This workshop provided a venue to bring together representatives of water-related agencies and their scientific partners (including university researchers) to initiate and refine a vision for a national Integrated Hydro-Terrestrial Modeling (IHTM) and data infrastructure and advance ideas towards its development. The workshop was designed to address three critical foci to advance the development of a national IHTM capacity: “Priority Water Challenges” around which to motivate and initiate development; Technical and methodological obstacles related to data and modeling; Organizational, structural, and cultural barriers that heretofore have impeded integration of capabilities across the federal and research landscapes. The following “Priority Water Challenge” domain areas represent targets for initiating development of the IHTM and were identified and selected in alignment with priorities of the administration’s Water Sub-Cabinet: (1) Nutrient loading, hypoxia, and harmful algal blooms; (2) Water availability in the western United States; and (3) Extreme weather-related water hazards. These water challenges span agency mission boundaries and encompass a broad range of geographies, complex system dynamics and feedbacks, and critical processes spanning hydrological, climatic, and biophysical systems as well as land-use/land-cover, agricultural, built infrastructure, societal, economic, and decisional environments. These three Priority Water Challenges cannot be fully addressed without leveraging complementary and synergistic capabilities across multiple agencies.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bioprocessing Separations Consortium Three-Year Overview: Technical Advances, Process Economics Influence, and State of the Science

The Bioprocessing Separations Consortium solves separations challenges that are unique to bioprocessing. To do this, the Consortium uses two methods: applying existing technologies to new challenges and developing new technologies that may address these unique challenges better than today’s commercial technologies. In its research and development, the Consortium leverages its three core capabilities: materials development and evaluation, process development, and analysis and computation. In its first three years, from 2016 to 2019, the Consortium addressed four critical challenges in biochemical and thermochemical processing. First, the Consortium targeted the fractionation of lignin to enable valorization of this portion of biomass that offers diverse, complex, and valuable building blocks and products. Second, Consortium researchers developed technologies to enable process intensification, which can reduce equipment needs, energy consumption, and waste generation, thereby cutting bioprocessing capital costs and rendering processes more efficient. Third, the Consortium sought to recover carbon from dilute aqueous streams that are common to bioprocessing; recovering dilute carbon can improve process efficiency and economics. Finally, Consortium researchers designed and developed new materials and catalysts to reduce targeted foulants and poisons in bioprocessing streams that can limit the lifetime of downstream catalysts or fermenting microorganisms. Table 1 lists the technologies that were examined and places them in the context of the Consortium’s capabilities, types of bioprocesses, and critical challenges in bioprocessing separations. Overall, across these projects, we have developed separations technologies for 10 bioprocesses, addressed 9 target compounds in bioprocessing, developed 10 materials, and evaluated 4 processes for cost and sustainability.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bioprocessing Separations Consortium Three-Year Overview: Technical Advances Process Economics Influence, and State of the Science

The Bioprocessing Separations Consortium solves separations challenges that are unique to bioprocessing. To do this, the Consortium uses two methods: applying existing technologies to new challenges and developing new technologies that may address these unique challenges better than today’s commercial technologies. In its research and development, the Consortium leverages its three core capabilities: materials development and evaluation, process development, and analysis and computation. In its first three years, from 2016 to 2019, the Consortium addressed four critical challenges in biochemical and thermochemical processing. First, the Consortium targeted the fractionation of lignin to enable valorization of this portion of biomass that offers diverse, complex, and valuable building blocks and products. Second, Consortium researchers developed technologies to enable process intensification, which can reduce equipment needs, energy consumption, and waste generation, thereby cutting bioprocessing capital costs and rendering processes more efficient. Third, the Consortium sought to recover carbon from dilute aqueous streams that are common to bioprocessing; recovering dilute carbon can improve process efficiency and economics. Finally, Consortium researchers designed and developed new materials and catalysts to reduce targeted foulants and poisons in bioprocessing streams that can limit the lifetime of downstream catalysts or fermenting microorganisms. Table 1 lists the technologies that were examined and places them in the context of the Consortium’s capabilities, types of bioprocesses, and critical challenges in bioprocessing separations. Overall, across these projects, we have developed separations technologies for 10 bioprocesses, addressed 9 target compounds in bioprocessing, developed 10 materials, and evaluated 4 processes for cost and sustainability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bioprocessing Separations Consortium: Three-Year Overview - Technical Advances, Process Economics Influence, and State of the Science

The Bioprocessing Separations Consortium solves separations challenges that are unique to bioprocessing. To do this, the Consortium uses two methods: applying existing technologies to new challenges and developing new technologies that may address these unique challenges better than today’s commercial technologies. In its research and development, the Consortium leverages its three core capabilities: materials development and evaluation, process development, and analysis and computation. In its first three years, from 2016 to 2019, the Consortium addressed four critical challenges in biochemical and thermochemical processing. First, the Consortium targeted the fractionation of lignin to enable valorization of this portion of biomass that offers diverse, complex, and valuable building blocks and products. Second, Consortium researchers developed technologies to enable process intensification, which can reduce equipment needs, energy consumption, and waste generation, thereby cutting bioprocessing capital costs and rendering processes more efficient. Third, the Consortium sought to recover carbon from dilute aqueous streams that are common to bioprocessing; recovering dilute carbon can improve process efficiency and economics. Finally, Consortium researchers designed and developed new materials and catalysts to reduce targeted foulants and poisons in bioprocessing streams that can limit the lifetime of downstream catalysts or fermenting microorganisms. Table 1 lists the technologies that were examined and places them in the context of the Consortium’s capabilities, types of bioprocesses, and critical challenges in bioprocessing separations. Overall, across these projects, we have developed separations technologies for 10 bioprocesses, addressed 9 target compounds in bioprocessing, developed 10 materials, and evaluated 4 processes for cost and sustainability.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Resource for the Development of Biomedical Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) Final Report

The NIH Research Resource for Biomedical AMS was originally funded at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in 1999 to develop and apply the technology of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) in broad- based biomedical research. The Resource’s niche is to fill needs for ultra high sensitivity quantitation when isotope-labeled agents are used. The Research Resource’s Technology Research and Development (TR&D) efforts will focus on the needs of the biomedical research community in the context of seven Driving Biomedical Projects (DBPs) that will drive the Center’s technical capabilities through three core TR&Ds. We will expand our present capabilities by developing a fully integrated HPLC AMS to increase our capabilities for metabolic measurements, we will develop methods to understand cellular processes and we will develop and validate methods for the application of AMS in human studies, which is a growing area of demand by collaborators and service users. In addition, we will continue to support new and ongoing collaborative and service projects that require the capabilities of the Resource. The Center will continue to train researchers in the use of the AMS capabilities being developed, and the results of all efforts will be widely disseminated to advance progress in biomedical research. Towards these goals, our specific aims are to:1.) Increase the value and information content of AMS measurements by combining molecular speciation with quantitation of defined macromolecular isolates. Specifically, develop and validate methods for macromolecule labeling, characterization and quantitation.2.) Develop and validate methods and strategies to enable AMS to become more broadly used in human studies. Specifically, demonstrate robust methods for conducting pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamics studies in humans and model systems.3.) Increase the accessibility of AMS to the Biomedical research community and the throughput of AMS through direct coupling to separatory instruments.4.) Provide high throughput 14C BioAMS analysis for collaborative and service clients.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydrogen from low-density polyethylene via nonthermal plasma: Effects of energy density and process parameters

Nonthermal plasma processes are promising for the modular valorization of plastic waste, especially into hydrogen and carbon materials, due to their high intensity, lack of reliance on catalysts or consumables, and suitability to be directly powered by electricity. We investigate the production of hydrogen from low-density polyethylene (LDPE) as a plastic waste model using streamer Dielectric Barrier Discharge (sDBD) plasma in nitrogen at atmospheric pressure. Here, we examine the effects of process energy density (energy input per unit of feedstock mass), feedstock mass, and plasma intensity (electric voltage) on plasma properties, hydrogen yield and energy efficiency via gas chromatography, optical emission spectroscopy, and electrical diagnostics, together with reactor-scale and nonlinear electric circuit modeling. The characteristic temperature of free electrons in the sDBD plasma is approximately 15000 K (1.3 eV), and that of gas species 10 times lower, demonstrating strong thermal non-equilibrium that can lead to molecular bond scission via charged species impact rather than direct heating. Experimental results show that higher energy density leads to greater hydrogen production and diminishing energy efficiency, and that higher plasma intensity and larger feedstock mass lead to greater hydrogen yield due to higher plasma temperatures and enhanced energy fluxes to the feedstock.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improvement of the $\mathrm{BISON U_3Si_2}$ modeling capabilities based on multiscale developments to modeling fission gas behavior

Uranium silicide (U 3 Si 2 ) is a concept explored as a potential alternative to UO 2 fuel used in light water reactors (LWRs) since it may improve accident tolerance and economics due to its higher thermal conductivity and increased uranium density. U 3 Si 2 has been previously used in research reactors in the form of dispersion fuel, but operated at lower temperatures than commercial LWRs. The research reactor data illustrated that significant gaseous swelling occurs as the fuel burnup increases. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the fission gas behavior of U 3 Si 2 under higher temperature LWR operating conditions. In this work, molecular dynamics and phase-field modeling techniques are used to reduce the uncertainty in select modeling assumptions made in developing the fission gas behavior model for U 3 Si 2 in the BISON fuel performance code. These lower length scale informed models are then utilized in the validation of BISON U 3 Si 2 modeling capabilities to simulate the ATF-1 experiments irradiated in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR). Sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) are included as part of the validation process to identify where further experiments and lower length scale modeling would be beneficial. Here, the multiscale modeling approach utilized in this work can be applied to new fuel concepts being explored for both LWRs and advanced reactors (e.g., uranium nitride, uranium carbide).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Coupling Microstructural Evolution Simulations to Material Property Degradation Predictions for Plasma-Facing Materials

Reliable material performance is required for plasma-facing material (PFM) candidates. Previous research has shown that plasma and neutron radiation exposure induces microstructural changes in PFMs; changes in thermal and electrical conductivities and in material hardening and embrittlement were also observed after neutron irradiation. These material property changes will negatively impact the performance of the PFMs in a fusion reactor. Despite the well-known connection between material microstructure, properties, and performance, there is a need for validated modeling capabilities connecting PFM property degradation with microstructural evolution under fusion-relevant conditions. We are developing a simulation capability to couple plasma-induced microstructural evolution to material property degradation. Our approach relies on deliberate mapping between individual simulation models and experimental characterization for validation. The open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) software was used for this simulation capability development. A MOOSE phase-field model was coupled with the cluster dynamics code, Xolotl, to predict microstructural evolution. Microstructure characterization techniques, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and laser scanning confocal microscopy (LSCM) are used to validate these microstructural evolution simulations. Calculation of thermal and electrical conductivities with first principles simulations was performed for bulk material and for grain boundaries; these results are used within MOOSE models to calculate effective thermal and electrical conductivities as a function of grain characteristics. Thermoreflectance and four-probe techniques were employed to measure the thermal and electrical conductivities, respectively. A MOOSE crystal plasticity model was adapted to predict microstructure-sensitive deformation behavior, and X-ray diffraction (XRD) was used to collect bulk dislocation density data for validation. After individual simulation validation, these models are coupled to predict material property changes resulting from plasma exposure. We focused here on an experimental design to emphasize the separate effects of moderate thermal loads and plasma exposure using tungsten. Annealing of tungsten was performed under a protective environment for temperatures ranging from 500 C to 1500 C. The plasma exposure was completed in the Tritium Plasma Experiment at Idaho National Laboratory under a deuterium flux of 1e22 D/m^2-s. This incremental approach is employed to build confidence in the modeling capability: separate-effects tests ensure that the models capture key mechanisms from single environmental conditions before predicting PFM property degradation under combined loads. We will show our early results from coupling these simulation models to predict PFM property changes from microstructural evolution. Comparisons of the simulation results with preliminary validation data will be discussed.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Connect microstructure evolution to property degradation with validated simulation

Reliable material performance is required for plasma-facing material (PFM) candidates. Previous research has shown that plasma and neutron radiation exposure induces microstructural changes in PFMs; changes in thermal and electrical conductivities and in material hardening and embrittlement were also observed after neutron irradiation. These material property changes will negatively impact the performance of the PFMs in a fusion reactor. Despite the well-known connection between material microstructure, properties, and performance, there is a need for validated modeling capabilities connecting PFM property degradation with microstructural evolution under fusion-relevant conditions. We are developing a simulation capability to couple plasma-induced microstructural evolution to material property degradation. Our approach relies on deliberate mapping between individual simulation models and experimental characterization for validation. The open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) software was used for this simulation capability development. A MOOSE phase-field model was coupled with the cluster dynamics code, Xolotl, to predict microstructural evolution. Microstructure characterization techniques, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and laser scanning confocal microscopy (LSCM) are used to validate these microstructural evolution simulations. Calculation of thermal and electrical conductivities with first principles simulations was performed for bulk material and for grain boundaries; these results are used within MOOSE models to calculate effective thermal and electrical conductivities as a function of grain characteristics. Thermoreflectance and four-probe techniques were employed to measure the thermal and electrical conductivities, respectively. A MOOSE crystal plasticity model was adapted to predict microstructure-sensitive deformation behavior, and X-ray diffraction (XRD) was used to collect bulk dislocation density data for validation. After individual simulation validation, these models are coupled to predict material property changes resulting from plasma exposure. We focused here on an experimental design to emphasize the separate effects of moderate thermal loads and plasma exposure using tungsten. Annealing of tungsten was performed under a protective environment for temperatures ranging from 500$^o$C to 1500$^o$C. The plasma exposure was completed in the Tritium Plasma Experiment at Idaho National Laboratory under a deuterium flux of 1e22 $\frac{D}{m^2s}$. This incremental approach is employed to build confidence in the modeling capability: separate-effects tests ensure that the models capture key mechanisms from single environmental conditions before predicting PFM property degradation under combined loads. We will show our early results from coupling these simulation models to predict PFM property changes from microstructural evolution. Comparisons of the simulation results with preliminary validation data will be discussed.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

DireWolf

DireWolf is an integrated micro-reactor capability being developed using an advanced multiphysics modeling and simulation capability for heat pipe-cooled micro-reactor concepts. The DireWolf application is built on INL’s Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) development and runtime framework and is composed of the following MOOSE- based applications as submodules, coupled together using the MOOSE MultiApps and Transfers capability and executed as a single application: Griffin (reactor physics and radiation transport), BISON (nuclear fuel performance), Grizzly (structural mechanics), Sockeye (heat pipe technology), and RELAP-7 (open-air and super-critical CO2 Brayton cycle).

Permann, Cody↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring 𝛽 decay and 𝛽-delayed neutron emission in exotic 46,47 Cl isotopes

In this paper, 𝛽 − and 𝛽-delayed neutron decays of 46,47 Cl are reported from an experiment carried out at the National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory using the Beta Counting System. The half-lives of both 46 Cl and 47 Cl were extracted. Based on the delayed 𝛾-ray transitions observed, the level structure of 𝑁=28 46 Ar was determined. Completely different sets of excited states above the first 2 + state in 46 Ar were populated in the 46 Cl 𝛽⁢0⁢𝑛 and 47 Cl 𝛽⁢1⁢𝑛 decay channels. Two new 𝛾-ray transitions in 47 Ar were identified from the very weak 47 Cl 𝛽⁢0⁢𝑛 decay. Furthermore, 46 Cl 𝛽⁢1⁢𝑛 and 47 Cl 𝛽⁢2⁢𝑛 were also observed to yield different population patterns for levels in 45 Ar, including states of different parities. Here, the experimental results allow us to address some of the open questions related to the delayed neutron emission process. For isotopes with large neutron excess and high 𝑄 𝛽 values, delayed neutron emission remains an important decay mode and can be utilized as a powerful spectroscopic tool. Experimental results were compared with shell-model calculations using the FSU and 𝑉 MU effective interactions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integration Plan for NEAMS Structural Materials and Chemistry MSR Modeling

As part of its broad objective to support advanced reactor development, the US Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program has a strong interest in developing simulation capabilities to address chemistry and corrosion issues for molten salt reactors (MSRs). To that end, the Structural Materials & Chemistry (SMC) technical area within the NEAMS program is developing a set of codes and databases to describe the behavior of molten salts and their interactions with structural materials. This document reviews the current activities with respect to MSR-relevant codes and is an effort to improve their integration in simulating MSR systems. Interoperability between the codes being developed is critical for the success of the NEAMS-developed MSR simulation capability. This is greatly facilitated by having codes based on the MOOSE framework when possible, and by developing interfaces to MOOSE-based tools for those tools that are not based on that framework.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

2018 LDRD Annual Report (Argonne National Laboratory)

Argonne National Laboratory’s Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program encourages the development of novel technical concepts, enhances the Laboratory’s research and development (R&D) capabilities, and enables pursuit of strategic laboratory goals. Argonne’s LDRD projects are proposal based and peer reviewed, supporting ideas that require advanced exploration so they can be sufficiently developed to pursue support through normal programmatic channels. Among the aims of the projects supported by the LDRD program are the establishment of engineering proofs of principle, assessment of design feasibility for prospective facilities, development of instrumentation or computational methods or systems, and discoveries in fundamental science and exploratory development. All LDRD projects have demonstrable ties to one or more of the science, energy, environment, and national security missions of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and its National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), and many are also relevant to the missions of other federal agencies that sponsor work at Argonne. A natural consequence of the more “applied” type projects is their concurrent relevance to industry. The LDRD program is managed in overarching portfolios, each containing multiple projects each fiscal year. The LDRD Prime portfolio is further divided into strategic focus areas aligned with Argonne’s strategic plan. The largest component of Argonne’s program is LDRD Prime, which emphasizes R&D explicitly aligned with Laboratory major initiatives in support of Argonne’s strategic plan. The choice of Focus Areas under the LDRD Prime component reflects the major initiatives; the state of development of relevant technical fields; the potential value of advancing those fields to DOE/NNSA and the nation; and the compatibility of the fields with existing facilities, capabilities, and staff expertise at Argonne. Focus Areas with projects that ended in FY18 are: Advanced Computing, Biological and Environmental Science Capability Development, Energy Manufacturing Science and Engineering, Hard X-ray Sciences, Materials and Chemistry, Securing Energy and Critical Resources, and The Universe as Our Laboratory (ULab).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of a predictive capability of short-pulse laser-driven broadband x-ray radiography

High intensity, short-pulse laser interaction with a solid metal target produces broadband hard x-rays potentially for various applications of x-ray radiography. In this work, experimental benchmarking of numerical modelling for short-pulse laser-driven broadband x-ray radiography is presented. Angular dependent x-ray spectra are first calculated with a hybrid particle-in-cell code, Large Scale Plasma (LSP), using fast electron parameters inferred from an analysis of measured bremsstrahlung signals. Subsequently, a calculated x-ray spectrum in the direction of radiography is used in photon transport calculations using a Monte Carlo code, Particle and Heavy Ion Transport code System (PHITS), to simulate a radiographic image including a modelled 3D test object, an x-ray attenuation filter and an image plate detector. Simulated radiographic images are compared with measurements obtained in an experiment using a 50-TW Leopard short-pulse laser at the University of Nevada Reno. Results show that simulations reproduce the experimental images well for three different attenuation filters (plastic, aluminium, and brass), while 1D transmission profiles for the plastic and aluminium filters are quantitatively in good agreement. The modelling approach established in this work could be used as a predictive tool to simulate radiographic images of complex 3D solid objects at any arbitrary angular position or to optimize experimental components such as the source spectrum, x-ray attenuation filters and a detector type depending on a radiographic object without carrying out radiographic experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anticipating Technical Expertise and Capability Evolution in Research Communities Using Dynamic Graph Transformers

The ability to anticipate global technical expertise and capability evolution trends is essential for national and global security, especially in safety-critical domains such as nuclear nonproliferation (NN) and rapidly emerging fields like artificial intelligence (AI). Here, in this work, we extend traditional statistical relational learning approaches (e.g., link prediction in collaboration networks) and formulate a problem of anticipating technical expertise and capability evolution using dynamic heterogeneous graph representations. We develop novel capabilities to forecast collaboration patterns, authorship behavior, and technical capability evolution at different granularities (e.g., scientist and institution levels) in two distinct research fields. We implement a dynamic graph transformer (DGT) neural architecture, which pushes the state-of-the-art graph neural network models by: 1) forecasting heterogeneous (rather than homogeneous) nodes and edges; and 2) relying on both discrete- and continuous-time inputs. We demonstrate that our DGT models predict collaboration, partnership, and expertise patterns with 0.26, 0.73, and 0.53 mean reciprocal rank values for AI and 0.48, 0.93, and 0.22 for NN domains. DGT model performance exceeds the best-performing static graph baseline models by 30%–80% across AI and NN domains. Our findings demonstrate that DGT models boost inductive task performance when previously unseen nodes appear in the test data for the domains with emerging collaboration patterns (e.g., AI). Specifically, models accurately predict which established scientists will collaborate with early career scientists and vice versa in the AI domain.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the Known Unknown: Including Marine Sources of Greenhouse Gases in Climate Modeling

Researchers have recently estimated that Arctic submarine permafrost currently traps 60 billion tons of methane and contains 560 billion tons of organic carbon in seafloor sediments and soil, a giant pool of carbon with potentially large feedbacks on the climate system. Unlike terrestrial permafrost, the submarine permafrost system has remained a “known unknown” because of the difficulty in acquiring samples and measurements. Consequently, this potentially large carbon stock never yet considered in global climate models or policy discussions, represents a real wildcard in our understanding of Earth’s climate. This report summarizes our group’s effort at developing a numerical modeling framework designed to produce a first-of-its-kind estimate of Arctic methane gas releases from the marine sediments to the water column, and potentially to the atmosphere, where positive climate feedback may occur. Newly developed modeling capability supported by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program at Sandia National Laboratories now gives us the ability to probabilistically map gas distribution and quantity in the seabed by using a hybrid approach of geospatial machine learning, and predictive numerical thermodynamic ensemble modeling. The novelty in this approach is its ability to produce maps of useful data in regions that are only sparsely sampled, a common challenge in the Arctic, and a major obstacle to progress in the past. By applying this model to the circum-Arctic continental shelves and integrating the flux of free gas from in situ methanogenesis and dissociating gas hydrates from the sediment column under climate forcing, we can provide the most reliable estimate of a spatially and temporally varying source term for greenhouse gas flux that can be used by global oceanographic circulation and Earth system models (such as DOE’s E3SM). The result will allow us to finally tackle the wildcard of the submarine permafrost carbon system, and better inform us about the severity of future national security threats that sustained climate change poses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗