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DOE OSTI2021

A comparison of Gaussian processes and neural networks for computer model emulation and calibration

The Department of Energy relies on complex physics simulations for prediction in domains like cosmology, nuclear theory, and materials science. These simulations are often extremely computationally intensive, with some requiring days or weeks for a single simulation. In order to assure their accuracy, these models are calibrated against observational data in order to estimate inputs and systematic biases. Because of their great computational complexity, this process typically requires the construction of an emulator, a fast approximation to the simulation. In this paper, two emulator approaches are compared: Gaussian process regression and neural networks. Their emulation accuracy and calibration performance on three real problems of Department of Energy interest is considered. On these problems, the Gaussian process emulator tends to be more accurate with narrower, but still well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The neural network emulator is accurate, but tends to have large uncertainty on its predictions. Finally, as a result, calibration with the Gaussian process emulator produces more constrained posteriors that still perform well in prediction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Calibrating uncertain parameters in melt pool simulations of additive manufacturing

Melt pool scale numerical modeling of additive manufacturing (AM) processes can provide predictive capabilities and theoretical insight into the process-property-structure-performance relationships for AM parts. Despite capabilities of numerical models to solve complex multi-physics problems, it is often important to consider a tradeoff between detailed physics and computational cost. Therefore, sources of uncertainty in both experimental conditions and the parameters needed for modeling require models to be validated against empirical evidence. Here, a method is proposed to calibrate uncertain parameters used in continuum-scale melt pool models for powder bed fusion (PBF) AM. Both a simplified heat transfer model and a heat transfer and fluid flow model were investigated. A surrogate model and Markov chain-based optimization algorithm calibrated melt pool geometry for models within experimental variation of the target melt pool width and depth from the NIST AM-Bench 2018-02 dataset. The melt pool temperature distributions, solidification parameters, and simulated multi-layer solidification microstructures were compared between the two models. Similar results from both models indicate that calibrated, lower fidelity numerical models may be used in place of higher fidelity models to generate melt pool solidification data. Finally, these calibrated models therefore enable lower computational cost melt pool simulations without a noticeable decrease in simulation accuracy for grain-scale microstructure simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Atomic Layer Thermopiles: Comprehensive static calibration, comparison and application in subsonic and supersonic flows

Here, this paper compares the calibration of different heat flux sensors in radiation- and convection-based sub- and supersonic operation. First, four heat flux sensors based on different principles: ALTP (Transverse Seebeck Effect), HFM-8E (differential-layer device), coaxial Thermocouple and a TG-2000 (circular-foil gage) are calibrated in a laser-based radiation setup. In a second step, all heat flux sensors are compared with a slug-calorimeter within a subsonic convection-dominated facility based on stagnation-point measurements of an impinging hot air jet. The obtained results indicate that a sensitivity transfer between a radiative calibrated sensor used in a mainly convective environment is not always possible and can lead to significant, systematic errors. Calibration in a subsonic shear flow with thermocouple readings demonstrate small divergence from the manufacturer provided sensitivity. Finally, supersonic testing with high frequency shock-boundary layer interactions highlight the need for ALTP rather than the conventional use of thermocouple arrays to resolve the high frequency phenomena associated with shock boundary layer interactions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Automated Calibration for Rapid Optical Spectroscopy Sensor Development for Online Monitoring

An automated platform has been developed to assist researchers in the rapid development of optical spectroscopy sensors to quantify species from spectral data. This platform performs calibration and validation measurements simultaneously. Real-time, in situ monitoring of complex systems through optical spectroscopy has been shown to be a useful tool; however, building calibration models requires development time, which can be a limiting factor in the case of radiological or otherwise hazardous systems. While calibration time can be reduced through optimized design of experiments, this study approached the challenge differently through automation. The ATLAS (Automated Transient Learning for Applied Sensors) platform used pneumatic control of stock solutions to cycle flow profiles through desired calibration concentrations for multivariate model construction. Additionally, the transients between desired concentrations based on flow calculations were used as validation measurements to understand model predictive capabilities. This automated approach yielded an incredible 76% reduction in model development time and a 60% reduction in sample volume versus estimated manual sample preparation and static measurements. The ATLAS system was demonstrated on two systems: a three-lanthanide system with Pr/Nd/Ho representing a use case with significant overlap or interference between analyte signatures and an alternate system containing Pr/Nd/Ni to demonstrate a use case in which broad-band corrosion species signatures interfered with more distinct lanthanide absorbance profiles. Both systems resulted in strong model prediction performance (RMSEP < 9%). Lastly, ATLAS was demonstrated as a tool to simulate process monitoring scenarios (e.g., column separation) in which models can be further optimized to account for day-to-day changes as necessary (e.g., baseline correction). Ultimately, ATLAS offers a vital tool to rapidly screen monitoring methods, investigate sensor fusion, and explore more complex systems (i.e., larger numbers of species).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

X-ray sources for in situ wavelength calibration of x-ray imaging crystal spectrometers

X-ray sources for a range of wavelengths are being considered for in situ calibration of X-ray Imaging Crystal Spectrometers (XICSs) and for monitoring line shifts due to changes in the crystal temperature, which can vary during experimental operation over a day [A. Ince-Cushman et al., Rev. Sci. Instrum. 79, 10E302 (2008), L. Delgado-Aparicio et al., Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 55, 125011 (2013)]. Such crystal temperature dependent shifts, if not accounted for, could be erroneously interpreted as Doppler shifts leading to errors in plasma flow-velocity measurements. The x-ray sources encompass characteristic x-ray lines falling within the wavelength range of 0.9–4.0 Å, relevant for the XICSs on present and future fusion devices. Several technological challenges associated with the development of x-ray sources for in situ calibration are identified and are being addressed in the design of multiple x-ray tubes, which will be installed inside the spectrometer housing of the XICS for the JT-60SA tokamak. These x-ray sources will be especially useful for in situ calibration between plasma discharges. Here, in this paper, laboratory experiments are described that were conducted with a Cu x-ray source, a heated quartz (102) crystal, and a pixelated Pilatus detector to measure the temperature dependent shifts of the Cu Kα 1 and Kα 2 lines at 1.5405 and 1.5443 Å, respectively, and to evaluate the 2d-lattice constant for the Bragg reflecting crystal planes as a function of temperature, which, in the case of in situ wavelength calibration, would have to be used for numerical analysis of the x-ray spectra from the plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simultaneous energy and mass calibration of large-radius jets with the ATLAS detector using a deep neural network

The energy and mass measurements of jets are crucial tasks for the Large Hadron Collider experiments. This paper presents a new calibration method to simultaneously calibrate these quantities for large-radius jets measured with the ATLAS detector using a deep neural network (DNN). To address the specificities of the calibration problem, special loss functions and training procedures are employed, and a complex network architecture, which includes feature annotation and residual connection layers, is used. The DNN-based calibration is compared to the standard numerical approach in an extensive series of tests. The DNN approach is found to perform significantly better in almost all of the tests and over most of the relevant kinematic phase space. In particular, it consistently improves the energy and mass resolutions, with a 30% better energy resolution obtained for transverse momenta $p$ T > $500$ GeV.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Composition Quantification of SiGeSn Alloys Through Time-of-Flight Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry: Calibration Methodologies and Validation With Atom Probe Tomography

Time-of-Flight Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) is a powerful technique for elemental compositional analysis and depth profiling of materials. However, it encounters the problem of matrix effects that hinder its application. In this work, we introduce a pioneering ToF-SIMS calibration method tailored for SixGeySnz ternary alloys. SixGe1-x and Ge1-zSnz binary alloys with known compositions are used as calibration reference samples. Through a systematic SIMS quantification study of SiGe and GeSn binary alloys, we unveil a linear correlation between secondary ion intensity ratio and composition ratio for both SiGe and GeSn binary alloys, effectively mitigating the matrix effects. Extracted relative sensitivity factor (RSF) value from SixGe1-x (0.07 < x < 0.83) and Ge1-zSnz (0.066 < z < 0.183) binary alloys are subsequently applied to those of SixGeySnz (0.011 < x < 0.113, 0.863 < y < 0.935 and 0.023 < z < 0.103) ternary alloys for elemental compositions quantification. These values are cross-checked by Atom Probe Tomography (APT) analysis, an indication of the great accuracy and reliability of as-developed ToF-SIMS calibration process. Furthermore, the proposed method and its reference sample selection strategy in this work provide a low-cost as well as simple-to-follow calibration route for SiGeSn composition analysis, thus driving the development of next-generation multifunctional SiGeSn-related semiconductor devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Measuring X-Ray Emission Line Shapes in Neutral Species for XRISM Calibration

Space X-ray spectrometers such as the Resolve instrument on XRISM require precise calibration in order to interpret the spectra of astrophysical objects. Key components of the calibration are the energy scale and the core line spread function, both of which vary with photon energy. A major issue in the calibration of high-resolution spectrometers is locating good calibrators with well-known and stable intrinsic line shapes. Neutral fluorescence is widely used, but inner-shell transitions in neutral atoms often exhibit complex, poorly documented line shapes that vary with excitation conditions. Here, in this study, we present empirical measurements of K-shell transitions in neutral O and F below 1 keV using an engineering model XRISM calorimeter array, an electron bombardment modulated X-ray source, and an electron beam ion trap (EBIT) to provide a precise energy reference. In addition, we report measurements of the Mo Lα complex with the transition-edge microcalorimeter spectrometer (TEMS), which reveal strong satellite structure and sensitivity of the line shape to the incident exciting spectrum. Together, these results demonstrate the need for empirical line-shape models, highlight the nonstationary nature of neutral fluorescence features, and define a path toward developing transfer standards for XRISM and future precision instruments such as Athena/X-IFU.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Absolute timing calibration of the Resolve microcalorimeter spectrometer on the X-ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission

The Resolve microcalorimeter spectrometer on the X-ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission (XRISM) is designed to have a good timing capability with the mission-level requirement of 1 ms as the absolute time tagging accuracy to suffice the needs for observatory science. In the ground calibration campaign, the absolute and relative timing offsets were measured using pulsed X-rays from the modulated X-ray sources. These offsets were used to determine calibration parameters, the Resolve timing coefficients, which are used in the offline correction of event times. In the orbit, reevaluation of the timing coefficients was carried out using the Crab pulsar, which was observed in two periods, one in the performance verification phase and the other in the guest observation phase. We report the absolute timing calibration of XRISM/Resolve using the ground and in-orbit data. Although the requirement is likely satisfied with the ground parameters, the timing coefficients have been refined using the in-orbit calibration to improve the timing accuracy. In addition, for the first time, we present the interpretation of the absolute timing offset originating from the analog and digital processing of X-ray events unique to a microcalorimeter spectrometer and present a complete view of the timing error of the Resolve instrument.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ground calibration plan for the Athena/X-IFU microcalorimeter spectrometer

The X-ray Integral Field Unit is the X-ray imaging spectrometer on board one of ESA’s next large missions, Athena. Athena is set to investigate the theme of the Hot and Energetic Universe, with a launch planned in the late-2030s. Based on a high-sensitivity transition edge sensor (TES) detector array operated at very low temperature (50 mK), X-IFU will provide spatially resolved high-resolution spectroscopy of the X-ray sky in the 0.2 to 12 keV energy band, with an energy resolution goal of 4 eV up to 7 keV [3 eV design goal]. This work presents the current calibration plan of the X-IFU. It provides the requirements applicable to the X-IFU calibration, describes the overall calibration strategy, and details the procedure and sources needed for the ground calibration of each parameter or characteristics of the X-IFU.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dealing with Measurement Uncertainties as Nuisance Parameters in Bayesian Model Calibration

In the presence of model discrepancy, the calibration of physics-based models for physical parameter inference is a challenging problem. Lack of identifiability between calibration parameters and model discrepancy requires additional identifiability constraints to be placed on the model discrepancy to obtain unique physical parameter estimates. If these assumptions are violated, the inference for the calibration parameters can be systematically biased. In many applications, such as in dynamic material property experiments, many of the calibration inputs refer to measurement uncertainties. Here, we develop a metric for identifying overfitting of these measurement uncertainties, propose a prior capable of reducing this overfitting, and show how this leads to a diagnostic tool for validation of physical parameter inference. The approach is demonstrated for a benchmark example and applied for a material property application to perform inference on the equation of state parameters of tantalum.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Computer Model Calibration with Time Series Data Using Deep Learning and Quantile Regression

Computer models play a key role in many scientific and engineering problems. One major source of uncertainty in computer model experiments is input parameter uncertainty. Computer model calibration is a formal statistical procedure to infer input parameters by combining information from model runs and observational data. The existing standard calibration framework suffers from inferential issues when the model output and observational data are high-dimensional dependent data, such as large time series, due to the difficulty in building an emulator and the nonidentifiability between effects from input parameters and data-model discrepancy. To overcome these challenges, we, in this work, propose a new calibration framework based on a deep neural network (DNN) with long short-term memory layers that directly emulates the inverse relationship between the model output and input parameters. Adopting the “learning with noise” idea, we train our DNN model to filter out the effects from data-model discrepancy on input parameter inference. We also formulate a new way to construct interval predictions for DNN using quantile regression to quantify the uncertainty in input parameter estimates. Through a simulation study and real data application with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro), we show our approach can yield accurate point estimates and well-calibrated interval estimates for input parameters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

INL CRMO XRF Special Report No. 3: INL CRMO XRF Calibration Methods for the Analysis of Ceramics and Brick

This report details the analytical methods used by the Idaho National Laboratory Cultural Resource Management Office to characterize ceramic and brick artifacts using X-ray fluorescence spectrometry. More specifically, this report provides details on instrumentation, analysis times, and matrix-specific calibration protocols for ceramic materials. Calibration curves were developed to adjust raw instrumental output for 13 elements using a suite of reference standards made from historic brick borrowed from the Yale Peabody Museum. Calibration curves were validated by plotting predicted values against published reference values for the calibration set as well as a certified soil reference standard (SRM 2711a).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spitzer IRAC Photometry of JWST Calibration Stars

We present infrared photometry of all 36 potential JWST calibrators for which there is archival Spitzer IRAC data. This photometry can then be used to inform the stellar models necessary to provide absolute calibration for all JWST instruments. We describe in detail the steps necessary to measure IRAC photometry from archive retrieval to photometric corrections. To validate our photometry, we examine the distribution of uncertainties from all detections in all four IRAC channels as well as compare the photometry and its uncertainties to those from models, ALLWISE, and the literature. Seventy-five percent of our detections have standard deviations per star of all observations within each channel of less than 3%. The median standard deviations are 1.2%, 1.3%, 1.1%, and 1.9% in [3.6]–[8.0], respectively. We find less than 8% standard deviations in differences of our photometry with ALLWISE and excellent agreement with literature values (less than 3% difference), lending credence to our measured fluxes. JWST is poised to do groundbreaking science, and accurate calibration and cross-calibration with other missions will be part of the underpinnings of that science.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Model Calibration with Markov Chain Monte Carlo Tutorial

The purpose of this tutorial is to demonstrate how to use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to calibrate a model. By calibration, we mean the selection of model parameters (and, when relevant, structures). A common goal in model development and diagnostics is calibration, or the identification of model structures and parameters which are consistent with data. While models can be calibrated through hand-tuning parameters or minimizing simple error metrics such as root-mean-square-error (RMSE), these approaches can underrepresent the probabilistic nature of the data-generating process, as well as the potential for multiple model configurations to be consistent with the data. Probabilistic uncertainty quantification, which is the topic of this notebook, can address these concerns. This tutorial is presented as an appendix to the e-book: Addressing Uncertainty in MultiSector Dynamics Research.

Markov chain Monte Carlo↗

DOE OSTI2024

VALIDATION, VERIFICATION, AND CALIBRATION THROUGH A CAUSAL LENS

This paper presents an alternative method based on causal inference to perform validation, verification, and calibration of simulation models. While classical validation and verification approaches focus on the identification of the associations between data elements using statistical and machine learning methods, the novel methods in this paper focus instead on the identification of causal relationships between data elements. Statistical and machine learning-based approaches are strictly data-driven, meaning that they provide quantitative comparison measures between datasets without explicitly considering the hypotheses behind them. This can lead to the erroneous conclusion that, if two data sets are close enough, then the models that generated them are similar. In addition, when experimental and simulated data differ to an extent that fails to meet the acceptance criteria, calibration techniques are used to tweak simulation model parameters to reduce the gap between the two types of data. This produces the false expectation that a simulation model will match reality. The methods presented in this paper move away from these strictly data-driven methods for validation and calibration toward more robust, model-driven methods based on causal inference. Causal inference aims to identify the possible mechanisms that might have generated data. Thus, this analysis targets the prediction of the effects when one (or more) of the identified mechanisms are altered. There are many approaches to identify, quantify and illustrate causal relationships. For the scope of this paper, directed graphs are employed as causal models. If the directed graph lacks cycles it is known as a directed acyclic graph (DAG). A node in such a graph represents an observed data element while a directed edge connecting two nodes represents a causal relationship between two variables. The developed causal methods are designed to extract causal models from simulation models and from experimental data. Causal models capture the causal relationships between data elements (e.g., simulated and experimental data). In this context, validation and verification are performed by comparing causal models. The proposed approach does not only inform system analysts on how a simulation model matches real-world data, but also identifies elements of the simulation model that should be revised when discrepancies between simulation and experimental data are observed. Through these causal methods, analysts have a means to identify the portion of the model equation(s) that are behind an edge connecting two variables. Hence, once the structural differences between causal models have been determined, model calibration can occur by changing only those model parameters that impact the identified causal relationships.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Understanding Calibration and Error Propagation in Longitudinal and Lateral Manganin Gauge Shock Experiments

Soda-lime glass remains elastic under shock pressures up to approximately 6.5 GPa. In this paper, soda lime glass shock experiments are used to understand the calibration and error propagation in longitudinal and lateral manganin gauge experiments. The errors in the calibration process for both longitudinal and lateral manganin gauge experiments are identified and discussed. Five soda-lime glass experiments up to 3 GPa are analyzed using this refined technique. The results show good agreement between the experimental data and the published calibration by Rosenberg and Moshel. Errors are propagated from the experimental data measurements and the assumptions that are made in the calibration, where the bulk of the error seems to come from uncertainty in the dynamic yield strength of manganin. Finally, the method presented in this paper allows for analysis of dynamic shock experiments with longitudinal and lateral manganin gauges including error propagation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Further Development of the Tamped Richtmyer-Meshkov Instability Method and Application to Molybdenum Dynamic Strength Calibration and Tabulation

The high pressure and high strain rate dynamic strength of Mo is experimentally and computationally investigated in the 3–20 GPa stress, 50–600 C temperature, and 10 5 –10 6 /s strain rate regimes using a modified tamped Richtmyer-Meshkov instability (RMI) method. Modifications to the tamped RMI method include a method to determine loading states during strain, a new strength calibration function based on interface shape, and a robust uncertainty quantification method. These modifications improve fidelity of the tamped RMI method, allowing evaluation of the compensating effects of pressure hardening, strain rate hardening, strain hardening, and thermal softening. The new calibration function based on interface shape is not limited to sinusoidal corrugations and could be applied to additional interface shapes. Plate impact experiments are performed at Argonne National Laboratory’s Advanced Photon Source’s Dynamic Compression Sector operated by Washington State University (DCS), driving a planar shock front through a corrugated Mo-D 2 O or Mo-C 8 F 18 interface, forcing the corrugation to significantly deform. The extent of interfacial deformation, RMI growth, is experimentally observed using X-ray phase contrast imaging at the DCS. RMI jet lengths and jet shapes are extracted from the experimental radiographs, then used to calibrate numerical simulations performed with the Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) hydrocode CTH. Mo yield strength, Y, as a function of shock pressure, P, strain rate, $\dot{\varepsilon }$, accumulated strain, ϵ, relative volumetric compression, RD , and temperature, T , is determined for each impact experiment and presented. The calibrated Mo yield strength values range 1.2–1.8 GPa, with strength generally decreasing as the impact stress increases. This trend is likely caused by thermal softening or strain localization. The tabular yield strength versus loading condition data presented in this paper can be used to fit complex strength models.

Voorhees, T. J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Li↗