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At least 199 records · Page 11

DEEPEN 3D PFA Favorability Models and 2D Favorability Maps at Newberry Volcano

DEEPEN stands for DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments. Part of the DEEPEN project involved developing and testing a methodology for a 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) for multiple play types (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical). This was tested using new and existing geoscientific exploration datasets at Newberry Volcano. This GDR submission includes images, data, and models related to the 3D favorability and uncertainty models and the 2D favorability and uncertainty maps. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology is based on the method proposed by Poux et al. (2020), which uses the Leapfrog Geothermal software with the Edge extension to conduct PFA in 3D. This method uses all available data to build a 3D geodata model which can be broken down into smaller blocks and analyzed with advanced geostatistical methods. Each data set is imported into a 3D model in Leapfrog and divided into smaller blocks. Conditional queries can then be used to assign each block an index value which conditionally ranks each block's favorability, from 0-5 with 5 being most favorable, for each model (e.g., lithologic, seismic, magnetic, structural). The values between 0-5 assigned to each block are referred to as index values. The final step of the process is to combine all the index models to create a favorability index. This involves multiplying each index model by a given weight and then summing the resulting values. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology follows this approach, but split up by the specific geologic components of each play type. These components are defined as follows for each magmatic play type: 1. Conventional hydrothermal plays in magmatic environments: Heat, fluid, and permeability 2. Superhot EGS plays: Heat, thermal insulation, and producibility (the ability to create and sustain fractures suitable for and EGS reservoir) 3. Supercritical plays: Heat, supercritical fluid, pressure seal, and producibility (the proper permeability and pressure conditions to allow production of supercritical fluid) More information on these components and their development can be found in Kolker et al., 2022. For the purposes of subsurface imaging, it is easier to detect a permeable fluid-filled reservoir than it is to detect separate fluid and permeability components. Therefore, in this analysis, we combine fluid and permeability for conventional hydrothermal plays, and supercritical fluid and producibility for supercritical plays. More information on this process is described in the following sections. We also project the 3D favorability volumes onto 2D surfaces for simplified joint interpretation, and we incorporate an uncertainty component. Uncertainty was modeled using the best approach for the dataset in question, for the datasets where we had enough information to do so. Identifying which subsurface parameters are the least resolved can help qualify current PFA results and focus future efforts in data collection. Where possible, the resulting uncertainty models/indices were weighted using the same weights applied to the respective datasets, and summed, following the PFA methodology above, but for uncertainty. There are two different versions of the Leapfrog model and associated favorability models: - v1.0: The first release in June 2023 - v2.1: The second release, with improvements made to the earthquake catalog (included additional identified events, removed duplicate events), to the temperature model (fixed a deep BHT), and to the index models (updated the seismicity-heat source index models for supercritical and EGS, and the resistivity-insulation index models for all three play types). Also uses the jet color map rather than the magma color map for improved interpretability. - v2.1.1: Updated to include v2.0 uncertainty results (see below for uncertainty model versions) There are two different versions of the associated uncertainty models: - v1.0: The first release in June 2023 - v2.0: The se...

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DEEPEN: Final 3D PFA Favorability Models and 2D Favorability Maps at Newberry Volcano

Part of the DEEPEN (DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments) project involved developing and testing a methodology for a 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) for multiple play types (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical). This was tested using new and existing geoscientific exploration datasets at Newberry Volcano. This GDR submission includes images, data, and models related to the 3D favorability and uncertainty models and the 2D favorability and uncertainty maps. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology, detailed in the journal article below, is based on the method proposed by Poux & O'brien (2020), which uses the Leapfrog Geothermal software with the Edge extension to conduct PFA in 3D. This method uses all available data to build a 3D geodata model which can be broken down into smaller blocks and analyzed with advanced geostatistical methods. Each data set is imported into a 3D model in Leapfrog and divided into smaller blocks. Conditional queries can then be used to assign each block an index value which conditionally ranks each block's favorability, from 0-5 with 5 being most favorable, for each model (e.g., lithologic, seismic, magnetic, structural). The values between 0-5 assigned to each block are referred to as index values. The final step of the process is to combine all the index models to create a favorability index. This involves multiplying each index model by a given weight and then summing the resulting values. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology follows this approach, but split up by the specific geologic components of each play type. These components are defined as follows for each magmatic play type: 1. Conventional hydrothermal plays in magmatic environments: Heat, fluid, and permeability 2. Superhot EGS plays: Heat, thermal insulation, and producibility (the ability to create and sustain fractures suitable for and EGS reservoir) 3. Supercritical plays: Heat, supercritical fluid, pressure seal, and producibility (the proper permeability and pressure conditions to allow production of supercritical fluid) More information on these components and their development can be found in Kolker et al., (2022). For the purposes of subsurface imaging, it is easier to detect a permeable fluid-filled reservoir than it is to detect separate fluid and permeability components. Therefore, in this analysis, we combine fluid and permeability for conventional hydrothermal plays, and supercritical fluid and producibility for supercritical plays. We also project the 3D favorability volumes onto 2D surfaces for simplified joint interpretation, and we incorporate an uncertainty component. Uncertainty was modeled using the best approach for the dataset in question, for the datasets where we had enough information to do so. Identifying which subsurface parameters are the least resolved can help qualify current PFA results and focus future efforts in data collection. Where possible, the resulting uncertainty models/indices were weighted using the same weights applied to the respective datasets, and summed, following the PFA methodology above, but for uncertainty.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Making a Water Data System Responsive to Information Needs of Decision Makers

Evidence-based environmental management requires data that are sufficient, accessible, useful and used. A mismatch between data, data systems, and data needs for decision making can result in inefficient and inequitable capital investments, resource allocations, environmental protection, hazard mitigation, and quality of life. In this paper, we examine the relationship between data and decision making in environmental management, with a focus on water management. We focus on the concept of decision-driven data systems —data systems that incorporate an assessment of decision-makers' data needs into their design. The aim of the research was to examine the process of translating data into effective decision making by engaging stakeholders in the development of a water data system. Using California's legislative mandate for state agencies to integrate existing water and other environmental data as a case study, we developed and applied a participatory approach to inform data-system design and identify unmet data needs. Using workshops and focused stakeholder meetings, we developed 20 diverse use cases to assess data sources, availability, characteristics, gaps, and other attributes of data used for representative decisions. Federal and state agencies made up about 90% of the data sources, and could readily adapt to a federated data system, our recommended model for the state. The remaining 10% of more-specialized data, central to important decisions across multiple use cases, would require additional investment or incentives to achieve data consistency, interoperability, and compatibility with a federated system. Based on this assessment, we propose a typology of different types of data limitations and gaps described by stakeholders. We also propose technical, governance, and stakeholder engagement evaluation criteria to guide planning and building environmental data systems. Data-system governance involving both producers and users of data was seen as essential to achieving workable standards, stable funding, convenient data availability, resilience to institutional change, and long-term buy-in by stakeholders. Our work provides a replicable lesson for using decision-maker and stakeholder engagement to shape the design of an environmental data system, and inform a technical design that addresses both user and producer needs.

Cantor, Alida↗

Power System Event Classification and Localization Using a Convolutional Neural Network

Detection and timely identification of power system disturbances are essential for situation awareness and reliable electricity grid operation. Because records of actual events in the system are limited, ensemble simulation-based events are needed to provide adequate data for building event-detection models through deep learning; e.g., a convolutional neural network (CNN). An ensemble numerical simulation-based training data set have been generated through dynamic simulations performed on the Polish system with various types of faults in different locations. Such data augmentation is proven to be able to provide adequate data for deep learning. The synchronous generators’ frequency signals are used and encoded into images for developing and evaluating CNN models for classification of fault types and locations. With a time-domain stacked image set as the benchmark, two different time-series encoding approaches, i.e., wavelet decomposition-based frequency-domain stacking and polar coordinate system-based Gramian Angular Field (GAF) stacking, are also adopted to evaluate and compare the CNN model performance and applicability. The various encoding approaches are suitable for different fault types and spatial zonation. With optimized settings of the developed CNN models, the classification and localization accuracies can go beyond 84 and 91%, respectively.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Pycheron: A Python-Based Seismic Waveform Data Quality Control Software Package

Supplementing an existing high-quality seismic monitoring network with openly available station data could improve coverage and decrease magnitudes of completeness; however, this can present challenges when varying levels of data quality exist. Without discerning the quality of openly available data, using it poses significant data management, analysis, and interpretation issues. Incorporating additional stations without properly identifying and mitigating data quality problems can degrade overall monitoring capability. If openly available stations are to be used routinely, a robust, automated data quality assessment for a wide range of quality control (QC) issues is essential. To meet this need, we developed Pycheron, a Python-based library for QC of seismic waveform data. Pycheron was initially based on the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology’s Modular Utility for STAtistical kNowledge Gathering but has been expanded to include more functionality. Pycheron can be implemented at the beginning of a data processing pipeline or can process stand-alone data sets. Its objectives are to (1) identify specific QC issues; (2) automatically assess data quality and instrumentation health; (3) serve as a basic service that all data processing builds on by alerting downstream processing algorithms to any quality degradation; and (4) improve our ability to process orders of magnitudes more data through performance optimizations. This article provides an overview of Pycheron, its features, basic workflow, and an example application using a synthetic QC data set.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Load Forecasting for the Moroccan Electricity Sector

The Moroccan electricity sector is undergoing rapid transformation as it seeks to increase its utilization of renewable energy from its abundant domestic supply. Key to implementing variable renewable energy is understanding current electricity demand and forecasting this demand on the long, medium, and short timescales. This report leverages existing Moroccan electricity sector data to build basic load forecasts on these timescales. Taking these forecasts, the report recommends next steps in terms of additional algorithms, mathematical models, data collection, and scenarios (such as vehicle electrification or high levels of distributed generation) that should be examined for advanced load forecasts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Datasets of Faults in Variable Air Volume Terminal Units in a Multi-Zone Commercial Building

Faults in HVAC systems can decrease system efficiency and equipment lifespan, leading to 5%–30% of energy consumption being wasted in commercial buildings. We identified two common faults in HVAC variable air volume systems: a stuck damper fault in the variable air volume terminal unit and a discharge airflow sensor fault. We conducted three sets of damper stuck tests and two sets of airflow sensor tests, each including a fault-free scenario and scenarios with varying levels of faults, over one day. The faults were implemented in Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s two-story Flexible Research Platform building to generate a high-quality, well-controlled dataset covering fault-induced and fault-free scenarios. The test building, fault test scenarios, and data validation are described here. The open-source dataset includes 1 min intervals of weather and building data on the presence and absence of building faults. This dataset can be used to analyze the effects of HVAC system faults on system operation and indoor building conditions, and to develop or evaluate a fault detection and diagnosis algorithm.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Generic High Bandwidth Data Acquisition Card for Physics Experiments

In high energy physics and nuclear physics experiments particularly the ones based on particle accelerator, the data rate from the detector is usually in the order of Terabytes per second. This high throughput data from detector front-end electronics need to be transmitted to the back-end computing farm for high level event selection and building. A Data Acquisition (DAQ) system with features of high-density, scalable, easily upgradeable is crucial to simplify the readout architecture of whole experiment. This paper will introduce the design of a generic high bandwidth PCIe card which can be used as the important input output card in a scalable DAQ system. It can factorize front-end electronics from data handling, and reduce amount of custom hardware in favor of scalable detectorindependent commercial hardware and software. Besides the 48 channels of bidirectional high speed fiber optical links with frontends, it also supports to synchronize with the experiment timing system, and to fanout the clock and trigger information with a fixed latency to the front-end electronics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

AutoBEM for BlocPower

As part of a cooperative research and development agreement (CRADA), the US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and BlocPower partnered to rectify disparities between simulated and actual energy consumption in buildings using various correction methods. This team extended ORNL’s building energy modeling capabilities and used bias-correction techniques to reduce the difference between simulated energy consumption estimations and ground-truth consumption data of buildings provided by utilities. ORNL is one of three core DOE laboratories developing the energy modeling tools EnergyPlus and OpenStudio.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Constraints on effective field theory couplings using 311.2 days of LUX data

We report here the results of an Effective Field Theory (EFT) WIMP search analysis using LUX data. We build upon previous LUX analyses by extending the search window to include nuclear recoil energies up to $\sim$180 keV$_{nr}$, requiring a reassessment of data quality cuts and background models. In order to use a binned Profile Likelihood statistical framework, the development of new analysis techniques to account for higher-energy backgrounds was required. With a 3.14$\times10^4$ kg$\cdot$day exposure using data collected between 2014 and 2016, we set 90\% C.L. exclusion limits on non-relativistic EFT WIMP couplings to neutrons and protons, providing the most stringent constraints on a significant fraction of the possible EFT WIMP interactions. Additionally, we report world-leading exclusion limits on inelastic EFT WIMP-nucleon recoils.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Parcel-Scale Assessment of Rooftop Solar Technical Potential

Understanding the potential for rooftop solar and other distributed energy resources (DERs) to contribute to power system planning is increasingly relevant for cities, utilities, and other planning entities. Such planning efforts typically require an estimate of technical potential, or the feasible technology potential independent of economic considerations. Currently, best-in-class rooftop solar technical potential methods use Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data which can identify each roof plane tilt, azimuth, and unshaded area. However, LiDAR data is not universally available and, even when available, obtaining and processing this data can be expensive. In contrast, parcel-level data is easy to use and widely available as it is generated by jurisdictions to levy property taxes. Such data universally reports building footprint area, which is highly correlated with roof area suitable (developable) for rooftop solar. Moreover, parcel data identifies building end-use, tenure, and other building characteristics not provided by LiDAR. To explore the feasibility of using parcel data to assess technical potential more broadly, we compare estimates using parcel data in Orlando, Florida (HIFLD 2020) to those generated using LiDAR data (Koebrich et al. 2021). We find that the parcel-based method results in accurate technical potential estimates at a block and city-scale, though only after accounting for shading and other factors that derate developable roof area. The results of this study demonstrate a scalable, low-effort approach to assess rooftop solar technical potential for every city and community in the U.S.

census blocks↗

Recent Advances in Machine Learning for Fiber Optic Sensor Applications

Over the last three decades, fiber optic sensors (FOS) have gained a lot of attention for their wide range of monitoring applications across many industries, including aerospace, defense, security, civil engineering, and energy. FOS technologies hold great promise to form the backbone for next‐generation intelligent sensing platforms that offer long‐distance, high‐accuracy, distributed measurement capabilities and multiparametric monitoring with resilience to harsh environmental conditions. The major limitations posed by FOS are 1) cross‐sensitivity, 2) enormous volume and large data generation, 3) low data processing speed, 4) degradation of signal‐to‐noise ratio over the fiber length, and 5) overall cost of sensor and interrogator systems. These challenges can be overcome by building advanced data analytics engines enabled by recent breakthroughs in machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI). This article presents a comprehensive review of recent studies that integrate ML and AI algorithms with FOS technologies. This review also highlights several FOS technology development directions that promise a significant impact on widespread use for several industrial applications, with an emphasis on energy systems monitoring. A perspective on future directions for further research development is also provided.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

TEACHING AN OLD ACCELERATOR NEW TRICKS

The Argonne Tandem Linac Accelerator System (ATLAS) has been a National User Facility since 1985. In that time, many of the systems that help operators retrieve, modify, and store beamline parameters have not kept pace with the advancement of technology. Development of a new method of storing and retrieving beamline parameters resulted in the testing and installation of a time-series database as a potential replacement for the traditional relational database. InfluxDB was selected due to its self-hosted Open-Source version availability as well as the simplicity of installation and setup. A program was written to periodically gather all accelerator parameters in the control system and store them in the time-series database. This resulted in over 13,000 distinct data points, captured at 5-minute intervals. A second test captured 35 channels on a 1-minute cadence. Graphing of the captured data is being done on Grafana, an Open-Source version is available that co-exists well with InfluxDB as the back-end. Grafana made visualizing the data simple and flexible. The testing has allowed for the use of modern graphing tools to generate new insights into operating the accelerator, as well as opened the door to building large data sets suitable for Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning applications.

Novak, D.↗

KCMP Minnesota Tall Tower Carbon Dioxide Data 2007-2019

This data set contains carbon dioxide concentration values and supporting metadata information measured at a tall tower (KCMP radio station, 244 meters) site near St. Paul, Minnesota, USA. The data package includes a text file containing hourly continuous carbon dioxide concentration measurements from 2007 to 2019, including raw, de-spiked, and gap filled data. Carbon dioxide concentrations were measured at approximately 100 meters using tunable diode laser spectroscopy. The instrumentation was maintained at the base of the tall tower in a temperature-controlled building. This data was collected to track and improve the understanding of carbon dioxide levels over a twelve year period for the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A multi-level load shape clustering and disaggregation approach to characterize patterns of energy consumption behavior

This study presents representative electrical load shapes, disaggregated to the end-use level, for over 5000 customer clusters across California’s residential, commercial, industrial and agricultural sectors. We developed a novel, multi-level load shape clustering approach for residential and commercial sectors leveraging interval meter data for over 350,000 California utility customers collected as a part of the Phase 4 California Demand Response (DR) Potential Study. The clustering approach allowed us to identify typical consumption patterns and categorize customers based on their daily load shape displayed throughout the year. For example, we were able to identify customers with particular energy technologies such as electric vehicles and rooftop solar, as well as building occupancy types such as restaurants, grocery stores and even unoccupied buildings, based solely on whole-building interval data. We then combined the load shape-based clusters with other customer information including building type, climate, geographical area, total consumption and low-income status, to create a set of customer clusters based on both demographics and usage patterns. Total cluster electricity demand was then disaggregated into a wide variety of end-uses using weather normalization and other publicly available end-use load shape datasets. The resulting disaggregated cluster load shapes will be released in anonymized form as part of the Phase 4 DR Potential Study. They will have wide-ranging applications in energy research and policy analysis, including estimation of energy efficiency (EE) and DR potential on the end-use level, time-dependent valuation of EE savings, building stock modeling, and developing customer targeting strategies for EE and DR programs.

Murthy, Samanvitha↗

MSD CoP Webinar: Energy and AI

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: Projections of the need for new data centers to support Artificial Intelligence (AI) are large but highly uncertain. Recent projections indicate up to a 15% annual growth rate in data center electricity demand within the next 5-10 years. Given that most electric utilities are required to have a reserve margin of roughly the same magnitude as the projected growth in demand, these new data center loads could soon threaten resource adequacy and reliability unless data centers build their own generation, interruptible loads are negotiated, commensurate new capacity and/or transmission is built, or some combination of these options. Similarly, depending on the cooling technology and geographic location of new data centers, they could threaten water adequacy in water scarce regions. This webinar will provide an overview of the interactions between energy and AI and highlight two MSD projects exploring the grid and water implications of new data centers to support AI. Presenters : Dr. Casey Burleyson (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory); Dr. Stephanie Morris (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory); Kendall Mongird (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory) Moderator: Patrick M. Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team) This webinar was held on: June 16th, 2025 from 1-2 PM EST.

Artificial Intelligence↗

Energy and AI: Evaluating Future Grid and Water Stress Due to Data Centers

Projections of the need for new data centers to support Artificial Intelligence (AI) are large but highly uncertain. Recent projections indicate up to a 15% annual growth rate in data center electricity demand within the next 5-10 years. Given that most electric utilities are required to have a reserve margin of roughly the same magnitude as the projected growth in demand, these new data center loads could soon threaten resource adequacy and reliability unless data centers build their own generation, interruptible loads are negotiated, commensurate new capacity and/or transmission is built, or some combination of these options. Similarly, depending on the cooling technology and geographic location of new data centers, they could threaten water adequacy in water scarce regions. This presentation highlights the grid and water implications of new data centers to support AI.

Mongird, Kendall (ORCID:0000000328077088)↗