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At least 199 records · Page 11

Temporal mismatches in flight activity patterns between Pipistrellus kuhlii and Prays oleae in olive farms: Implications for biocontrol services potential

Abstract Biocontrol services are widely recognized to provide key incentives for bat conservation. However, we have virtually no information on whether and how disruptions in bat‐mediated biocontrol services are driven by mismatches between the temporal activity patterns of insectivorous bats and insect pests. We investigated the temporal relationship between the nightly activity patterns of the common pipistrelle bat ( Pipistrellus kuhlii ) and the olive fruit moth ( Prays oleae ). Temporal mismatches between species pairs were estimated as the time difference (expressed as a percentage of the night) at which P. kuhlii and P. oleae reached 50% of their abundance. The study was carried out during spring, summer, and fall between 2017 and 2019 in 60 olive farms representing increasing levels of structural simplification (as a surrogate of agricultural intensification). Olive farms were classified as exhibiting high (i.e. HIGH olive farms; n = 27), intermediate (MID; n = 18), and low (LOW; n = 15) structural complexity. Temporal mismatches between the activity levels of P. kuhlii and P. oleae varied between seasons and types of olive farms, being comparatively lower in summer than in spring and fall. Furthermore, summer was the only season in which temporal mismatches between species pairs differed between types of olive farms, with higher temporal mismatches found in LOW than in HIGH and MID olive farms. Overall, our work demonstrates the existence of temporal mismatches between the nightly activity patterns of P. kuhlii and P. oleae . Furthermore, it demonstrates that the structural simplification of olive farms increases temporal mismatches between species pairs, particularly in summer when bat‐mediated biocontrol services are most needed. Synthesis and applications . Future research should consider mismatches between the temporal activity patterns of insectivorous bats and insect pests. Otherwise, the actual impact of agricultural intensification on bat‐mediated biocontrol services as well as the economic impact of their loss on the agriculture industry might be underestimated. To enhance biocontrol services, we propose increasing the availability of suitable roosting and foraging sites as well as conserving areas of remnant native woodland and scattered hollow‐bearing trees.

Herrera, José M.↗

The Swift/BAT Hard X-Ray Survey

The BAT instrument on Swift is a wide field (70 deg. '100 deg.) coded aperture instrument with a CdZnTe detector array sensitive to energies of 14-200 keV. Each day, the BAT survey typically covers 60% of the sky to a detection limit of 30 millicrab. BAT makes hard X-ray light curves of similar sensitivity and coverage to the X-ray light curves from XTE/ASM, but in an energy range where sources show remarkably different behavior. Integrating the BAT data produces an all sky map with a source detection limit at 15 months of a few 10(exp -11) ergs per square centimeter per second, depending on the exposure. This is the first uniform all-sky survey at energies high enough to be unaffected by absorption since HEAO 1 in 1977-8. BAT has detected greater than 200 AGN and greater than 180 galactic sources. At high galactic latitudes, the BAT sources are usually easy to identify, but many are heavily absorbed and there are a few quite surprising identifications. The BAT selected galaxies can be used to calculate LogN/LogS and the luminosity function for AGN which are complete and free from common systematics. Several crucial parameters for understanding the cosmic hard x-ray background are now determined.

Tueller, Jack↗

The pesticide chlorpyrifos promotes obesity by inhibiting diet-induced thermogenesis in brown adipose tissue

Obesity results from a caloric imbalance between energy intake, absorption and expenditure. In both rodents and humans, diet-induced thermogenesis contributes to energy expenditure and involves the activation of brown adipose tissue (BAT). We hypothesize that environmental toxicants commonly used as food additives or pesticides might reduce BAT thermogenesis through suppression of uncoupling protein 1 (UCP1) and this may contribute to the development of obesity. Using a step-wise screening approach, we discover that the organophosphate insecticide chlorpyrifos suppresses UCP1 and mitochondrial respiration in BAT at concentrations as low as 1 pM. In mice housed at thermoneutrality and fed a high-fat diet, chlorpyrifos impairs BAT mitochondrial function and diet-induced thermogenesis, promoting greater obesity, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and insulin resistance. This is associated with reductions in cAMP; activation of p38MAPK and AMPK; protein kinases critical for maintaining UCP1 and mitophagy, respectively in BAT. These data indicate that the commonly used pesticide chlorpyrifos, suppresses diet-induced thermogenesis and the activation of BAT, suggesting its use may contribute to the obesity epidemic.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DECOVALEX-2023: Task E Final Report

This is the Task E final report for DECOVALEX-2023. Task E is focused on understanding thermal, two-phase hydrological, and mechanical (TH2M) processes, especially related to predicting brine migration in the excavation damaged zone around a heated excavation in salt. Salt is attractive as a disposal medium for radioactive waste because it is self-healing and is essentially impermeable and essentially non-porous in the far field (away from excavations). Investigation of the short-term (days to years) near-field (centimeters to tens of meters) behavior of salt is important for radioactive waste disposal because this early period strongly controls the amount of brine in a salt repository. Brine leads to corrosion of waste forms and waste packages, and possible dissolution of radionuclides with brine transport being a potential transport vector to the accessible environment. The main test case used in Task E is the ongoing Brine Availability Test in Salt (BATS) heater test located underground at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) near Carlsbad, New Mexico, USA. The Task was divided into a series of Steps. Step 0 was an introduction to processes in salt, that included matching historical unheated brine inflow data from boreholes at WIPP and matching temperature observations during BATS heater test 1a. Step 1 included validation of models against a thermo-poroelastic analytical solution relevant to heated boreholes in salt, and two-phase flow around an excavation in salt. Step 2 required all the individual components covered in steps 0 and 1 to come together to match observed brine inflow behavior during the BATS 1a heater test. There were a range of approaches from the teams, from mechanistic to prescriptive. Given the uncertainties in the problem, some teams used one- or two-dimensional models of the processes, while other teams included more geometrical complexity in three-dimensional models. The key learning points from Task E have been: • Heat conduction through salt typically requires non-linear thermal conductivity (as a function of temperature), but most models do a good job matching observations, given appropriate adjustments to the applied power and some thermocouple locations. • Thermal pressurization requires coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical (THM) responses that consider the thermal expansion of the fluid and solid phases. • Initialization of two-phase flow models around a borehole or excavation in salt are more realistically represented as “wetting up”, rather than “drying down” (i.e., the initial state after excavation is mostly dry, rather than mostly wet). • The BATS 1a heater test includes a significant release of brine after the end of heating, which requires a large increase in permeability to recreate. Task E has been a great learning experience for all the teams involved, and feedback from the modeling teams has led to changes in the design of follow-on BATS experiments, which are now ongoing underground at WIPP. There was a balance throughout the task between freedom to model phenomena how each team saw fit, and prescriptiveness in problem design to bring the modeling teams closer together to allow attribution of smaller differences between models to different modeling choices. The modeling approaches seem to go through two phases: an early phase of discovery or testing, and a later phase of refinement and improvement. In future modeling efforts, different field data could be used (e.g., BATS 2) and more time should be included in the processes for teams to make multiple model refinement or even significant changes to their conceptual model or setup, based on lessons learned from the modeling exercise.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

BASS. XXIV. The BASS DR2 Spectroscopic Line Measurements and AGN Demographics

We present the second catalog and data release of optical spectral line measurements and active galactic nucleus (AGN) demographics of the BAT AGN Spectroscopic Survey, which focuses on the Swift-BAT hard X-ray detected AGNs. We use spectra from dedicated campaigns and publicly available archives to investigate spectral properties of most of the AGNs listed in the 70 month Swift-BAT all-sky catalog; specifically, 743 of the 746 unbeamed and unlensed AGNs (99.6%). We find a good correspondence between the optical emission line widths and the hydrogen column density distributions using the X-ray spectra, with a clear dichotomy of AGN types for N H = 10 22 cm –2 . Based on optical emission-line diagnostics, we show that 48%–75% of BAT AGNs are classified as Seyfert, depending on the choice of emission lines used in the diagnostics. The fraction of objects with upper limits on line emission varies from 6% to 20%. Roughly 4% of the BAT AGNs have lines too weak to be placed on the most commonly used diagnostic diagram, [O iii ]λ5007/Hβ versus [N ii ]λ6584/Hα, despite the high signal-to-noise ratio of their spectra. This value increases to 35% in the [O iii ]λ5007/[O ii ]λ3727 diagram, owing to difficulties in line detection. Compared to optically selected narrow-line AGNs in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, the BAT narrow-line AGNs have a higher rate of reddening/extinction, with Hα/Hβ > 5 (~36%), indicating that hard X-ray selection more effectively detects obscured AGNs from the underlying AGN population. Finally, we present a subpopulation of AGNs that feature complex broad lines (34%, 250/743) or double-peaked narrow emission lines (2%, 17/743).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Swift/BAT Calibration and Spectral Response

The Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) aboard NASA#s Swift Gamma-Ray Burst Explorer is a large coded aperture gamma-ray telescope consisting of a 2.4 m (8#) x 1.2 m (4#) coded aperture mask supported 1 meter above a 5200 square cm area detector plane containing 32,768 individual 4 mm x 4 mm x 2 mm CZT detectors. The BAT is now completely assembled and integrated with the Swift spacecraft in anticipation of an October 2004 launch. Extensive ground calibration measurements using a variety of radioactive sources have resulted in a moderately high fidelity model for the BAT spectral and photometric response. This paper describes these ground calibration measurements as well as related computer simulations used to study the efficiency and individual detector properties of the BAT detector array. The creation of a single spectral response model representative of the fully integrated BAT posed an interesting challenge and is at the heart of the public analysis tool #batdrmgen# which computes a response matrix for any given sky position within the BAT FOV. This paper will describe the batdrmgen response generator tool and conclude with a description of the on-orbit calibration plans as well as plans for the future improvements needed to produce the more detailed spectral response model that is required for the construction of an all-sky hard x-ray survey.

Parsons, A.↗

Recent Results from the Swift Burst Alert Telescope

The Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) on the Swift Gamma-Ray Burst MIDEX mission has detected more than 125 gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), nearly all of which have been followed up by the narrow-field instruments on Swift through automatic repointing, and by ground and other satellite telescopes after rapid notification. Within seconds of a trigger the BAT produces and relays to the ground a position good to three arc minutes and a four channel light curve. An overview of the properties of BAT bursts and BAT'S performance as a burst monitor will be presented in this talk. BAT is a coded aperture imaging system with a wide (approx.2 sr) field of view consisting of a large coded mask located 1 m above a 5200 sq cm array of 32.768 CdZnTe detectors. All electronics and other hardware systems on the BAT have been operating well since commissioning and there is no sign of any degradation on orbit. The flight and ground software have proven similarly robust and allow the real time localization of all bursts and the rapid derivation of burst light curves, spectra and spectral fits on the ground.

Krimm, Hans↗

Mid-IR Properties of an Unbiased AGN Sample of the Local Universe: Emission-Line Diagnostics - 1

\Ve compare mid-IR emission-lines properties, from high-resolution Spitzer IRS spectra of a statistically-complete hard X-ray (14-195 keV) selected sample of nearby (z < 0.05) AGN detected by the Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) aboard Swift. The luminosity distribution for the mid-infrared emission-lines, [O IV] 25.89 microns, [Ne II] 12.81 microns, [Ne III] 15.56 microns and [Ne V] 14.32 microns, and hard X-ray continuum show no differences between Seyfert 1 and Seyfert 2 populations, although six newly discovered BAT AGNs are shown to be under-luminous in [O IV], most likely the result of dust extinction in the host galaxy. The overall tightness of the mid-infrared correlations and BAT luminosities suggests that the emission lines primarily arise in gas ionized by the AGN. We also compared the mid-IR emission-lines in the BAT AGNs with those from published studies of star-forming galaxies and LINERs. We found that the BAT AGN fall into a distinctive region when comparing the [Ne III]/[Ne II] and the [O IV]/[Ne III] quantities. From this we found that sources that have been previously classified in the mid-infrared/optical as AGN have smaller emission line ratios than those found for the BAT AGNs, suggesting that, in our X-ray selected sample, the AGN represents the main contribution to the observed line emission. Overall, we present a different set of emission line diagnostics to distinguish between AGN and star forming galaxies that can be used as a tool to find new AGN.

Weaver, K. A.↗

Capturing the Relative‐Humidity‐Sensitive Gas–Particle Partitioning of Organic Aerosols in a 2D Volatility Basis Set

Abstract Aerosol water affects the physicochemical properties and mass concentration of organic aerosols (OA), but it is typically omitted by air quality, weather, and climate models. We compare two classes of simplified models to estimate the OA water uptake and gas–particle partitioning of organic compounds. One class uses a single‐hygroscopicity‐parameter (κ) approach while the other is based on the reduced‐complexity Binary Activity Thermodynamics (BAT) model. We show that a BAT‐based two‐dimensional volatility basis set (VBS) model always predicts a higher OA mass concentration at elevated relative humidity (RH), for example, ∼16% at 80% RH, than any variation of theκ‐based method considered—even when BAT‐VBS predicts a lower water uptake. The main reason being that the BAT‐VBS model captures variations in effective saturation mass concentration of organics (C*) with RH, a feature that other VBS methods lack. The BAT‐VBS framework offers an efficient, RH‐sensitive treatment for reduced‐complexity OA modeling.

Geology↗

3DBFSVBF (3D BatFinder Smart Video BioFilter and Multi-class BatFinder Smart Video BioFilter) [SWR-22-88]

Bats are notoriously difficult to study, therefore, identifying specific behavioral trends and the precise environmental conditions at the time of collision requires a monitoring solution that can reliably collect relevant data. To date, thermal infrared video surveillance has been extensively applied to study bats and has proven to be a powerful yet cumbersome tool. Current analytical approaches are time consuming because data processing data has not been fully automated. In the past, steps have been taken to record avian and bat activity in conjunction with complicated image processing techniques that separate species from other moving objects within the field of view (i.e. clouds and portions of the wind turbine). Once the videos are collected, the post-processing does not allow real time monitoring and identification, leading to a delay in both studying the behavior of these species and determining the effectiveness of any impact reduction strategy being studied. Moreover, object identification capability is lacking, thus limiting the usefulness of video data. To resolve these issues, we are using open source 3D computer vision and machine learning techniques allowing for automatic detection of objects in real-time with the ability to correlate these objects with environmental variables and recording the flight paths of each object. The machine learning has been trained on 3D data and allows for automated real-time data collection, identification and tracking, thereby eliminating the need for long and tedious post-analysis processing of the videos. This machine learning model is an added feature to the previous BatFinder Smart Video BioFilter and increases the accuracy of that systems classification by increasing the accuracy of identifying bats (90% accuracy) and insects (69% accuracy) to a 97% accuracy. There are two object classifier machine learning models, Binary and multi-classification. Binary object classifier labeled BatFinder_Smart_Video_BioFilter.h5 distinguishes between biological objects and non-biological objects. The main goal of this object classifier is to ignore the turbine blades while detecting biological object flying withing the rotor swept area of the turbine. Non-biological objects have a probability of 0 and biological objects have a probability of 1. Multi-classifier labeled Multiclass_BatFinder_Smart_Video_BioFilter.h5 distinguishes between bats, birds, insects and non-biological.

Yarbrough, John↗

An effective survey method for studying volant species activity and behavior at tall structures

The effects of anthropogenic modification of air space on wildlife, particularly volant species, is not fully understood. Thus, it is essential to understand wildlife-interactions with tall structures to implement effective mitigation strategies. Yet, we are currently lacking standard protocols for visual surveys of wildlife behavior at such heights. Our study sought to determine an effective, repeatable method using readily available night vision and thermal technology to survey wildlife at tall structures. Using bats as the taxonomic group of interest, we (1) created a key to identify bats and their behavior, (2) compared the effectiveness of 2 different technologies, and (3) assessed optimal equipment placement to visually capture bat activity and behavior in proximity to wind turbine towers. For the latter, we tested thermal cameras at four distances from the base of the tower. The results of our study revealed that thermal cameras captured ∼34% more flying animals than night vision at a 2 m distance. However, due to the heat signature of the turbine towers themselves, it was challenging to identify behaviors and interactions that occurred in close proximity to the towers. In contrast, it was difficult to identify bats approaching the towers using night vision, yet we were able to clearly observe interactions with the towers themselves. With regards to equipment placement, we visually captured more bats with the thermal cameras placed 2 m from the tower base compared to farther distances. From our findings, we recommend that when using either thermal or night vision technology at tall structures, they be placed 2 m from the base to effectively observe interactions along the length of these structures. In addition, we further recommend that consideration be given to the use of these two technology types together to effectively conduct such surveys. If these survey techniques are incorporated into standard protocols, future surveys at a variety of tall structures are likely to become comparable and repeatable, thereby more effectively informing any mitigation strategies that may be required.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mesoscale Variations of Biogeochemical Properties in the Sargasso Sea

A mesoscale resolution biogeochemical survey was carried out in the vicinity of the US Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study (BATS) site during the summer of 1996. Real-time nowcasting and forecasting of the flow field facilitated adaptive sampling of several eddy features in the area. Variations in upper ocean nutrient and pigment distributions were largely controlled by vertical isopycnal displacements associated with the mesoscale field. Shoaling density surfaces tended to introduce cold, nutrient-rich water into the euphotic zone, while deepening isopycnals displaced nutrient-depleted water downward. Chlorophyll concentration was generally enhanced in the former case and reduced in the latter. Eddy-induced upwelling at the base of the euphotic zone was affected by features of two different types captured in this survey: (1) a typical mid-ocean cyclone in which doming of the main thermocline raised the near-surface stratification upward; and (2) a mode water eddy composed of a thick lens of 18 C water, which pushed up the seasonal thermocline and depressed the main thermocline. Model hindcasts using all available data provide a four-dimensional context in which to interpret temporal trends at the BATS site and two other locations during the two weeks subsequent to the survey. Observed changes in near-surface structure at the BATS site included shoaling iscpycnals, increased nutrient availability at the base of the euphotic zone, and enhanced chlorophyll concentration within the euphotic zone. These trends are explicable in terms of a newly formed cyclone that impinged upon the site during this time period. These observations reveal that eddy upwelling has a demonstrable impact on the way in which the nitrate-density relationship changes with depth from the aphotic zone into the euphotic zone. A similar transition is present in the BATS record, suggesting that eddy-driven upwelling events are present in the time series of upper ocean biogeochemical properties. The variability in main thermocline temperature and nitrate in this synoptic spatial survey spans the range observed in these quantities in the 10-year time series available at BATS to date (1988-1998).

McGillicuddy Dennis J., Jr.↗

Mesoscale Variations of Biogeochemical Properties in the Sargasso Sea

A mesoscale resolution biogeochemical survey was carried out in the vicinity of the U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site during the summer of 1996. Real-time nowcasting and forecasting of the flow field facilitated adaptive sampling of several eddy features in the area. Variations in upper ocean nutrient and pigment distributions were largely controlled by vertical isopycnal displacements associated with the mesoscale field. Shoaling density surfaces tended to introduce cold, nutrient-rich water into the euphotic zone, while deepening isopycnals displaced nutrient-depleted water downward. Chlorophyll concentration was generally enhanced in the former case and reduced in the latter. Eddy-induced upwelling at the base of the euphotic zone was affected by features of two different types captured in this survey-, (1) a typical mid-ocean cyclone in which doming of the main thermocline raised the near-surface stratification upward and (2) a mode water eddy composed of a thick lens of 18C water, which pushed up the seasonal thermocline and depressed the main thermocline. Model hindcasts using all available data provide a four-dimensional context in which to interpret temporal trends at the BATS site and two other locations during the 2 weeks subsequent to the survey. Observed changes in near-surface structure at the BATS site included shoaling isopycnals, increased nutrient availability at the base of the euphotic zone, and enhanced chlorophyll concentration within the cuphotic zone. These trends are explicable in terms of a newly formed cyclone that impinged upon the site during this time period. These observations reveal that eddy upwelling has a demonstrable impact on the way in which the nitrate-density relationship changes with depth from the aphotic zone into the euphotic zone. A similar transition is present in the BATS record, suggesting that eddy-driven upwelling events are present in the time series of upper ocean biogeochemical properties. The variability in main thermocline temperature and nitrate in this synoptic spatial survey spans the range observed in these quantities in the 10-year time series available at BATS to date (1988-1998).

McGillicuddy, D. J.↗

Designing Rolling-Element Bearings

Bearing Analysis Tool (BAT) is a computer program for designing rolling-element bearings for cryogenic turbomachines. BAT provides a graphical user interface (GUI) that guides the entry of data to develop mathematical models of bearings. The GUI breaks model data into logical subsets that are entered through logic-driven input screens. The software generates a threedimensional graphical model of a bearing as the data are entered. Most dataentry errors become immediately obvious in the graphical model. BAT provides for storage of all the data on a shaft/bearing system, enabling the creation of a library of proven designs. Data from the library can be transferred to subsequent projects by use of simple cut-and-paste routines. BAT includes a library of temperature- dependent cryogenic bearing-material properties for use in the mathematical models. BAT implements algorithms that (1) enable the user to select combinations of design and/or operating-condition parameters, and then (2) automatically optimize the design by performing trade studies over all of the parameter combinations. This feature enables optimization over a large trade space in a fraction of the time taken when using prior bearingmodel software.

Moore, James D., Jr.↗

The Swift/BAT Hard X-ray Transient Monitor

The Swift/Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) hard X-ray transient monitor provides near real-time coverage of the X-ray sky in the energy range 15-50 keV. The BAT observes 88% of the sky each day with a detection sensitivity of 5.3 mCrab for a full-day observation and a time resolution as ne as 64 seconds. The three main purposes of the monitor are (1) the discovery of new transient X-ray sources, (2) the detection of outbursts or other changes in the ux of known X-ray sources, and (3) the generation of light curves of more than 900 sources spanning over eight years. The primary interface for the BAT transient monitor is a public web page. Since 2005 February, 242 sources have been detected in the monitor, 149 of them persistent and 93 detected only in outburst. Among these sources, 16 were previously unknown and discovered in the transient monitor. In this paper, we discuss the methodology and the data processing and ltering for the BAT transient monitor and review its sensitivity and exposure. We provide a summary of the source detections and classify them according to the variability of their light curves. Finally, we review all new BAT monitor discoveries and present basic data analysis and interpretations for those sources with previously unpublished results.

Monitor↗

NASA's K/Ka-Band Broadband Aeronautical Terminal for Duplex Satellite Video Communications

JPL has recently begun the development of a Broadband Aeronautical Terminal (BAT) for duplex video satellite communications on commercial or business class aircraft. The BAT is designed for use with NASA's K/Ka-band Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS). The BAT system will provide the systems and technology groundwork for an eventual commercial K/Ka-band aeronautical satellite communication system. With industry/government partnerships, three main goals will be addressed by the BAT task: 1) develop, characterize and demonstrate the performance of an ACTS based high data rate aeronautical communications system; 2) assess the performance of current video compression algorithms in an aeronautical satellite communication link; and 3) characterize the propagation effects of the K/Ka-band channel for aeronautical communications.

communications↗

Natural switches in behaviour rapidly modulate hippocampal coding

Throughout their daily lives, animals and humans often switch between different behaviours. However, neuroscience research typically studies the brain while the animal is performing one behavioural task at a time, and little is known about how brain circuits represent switches between different behaviours. Here we tested this question using an ethological setting: two bats flew together in a long 135 m tunnel, and switched between navigation when flying alone (solo) and collision avoidance as they flew past each other (cross-over). Bats increased their echolocation click rate before each cross-over, indicating attention to the other bat. Hippocampal CA1 neurons represented the bat’s own position when flying alone (place coding). Notably, during cross-overs, neurons switched rapidly to jointly represent the interbat distance by self-position. This neuronal switch was very fast—as fast as 100 ms—which could be revealed owing to the very rapid natural behavioural switch. The neuronal switch correlated with the attention signal, as indexed by echolocation. Interestingly, the different place fields of the same neuron often exhibited very different tuning to interbat distance, creating a complex non-separable coding of position by distance. Theoretical analysis showed that this complex representation yields more efficient coding. Overall, our results suggest that during dynamic natural behaviour, hippocampal neurons can rapidly switch their core computation to represent the relevant behavioural variables, supporting behavioural flexibility.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Environmental and ecological signals predict food shortages for subtropical populations of Australian flying foxes, reservoirs of Hendra virus

Food availability determines where and how animals use space across a landscape and, therefore, affects the risk of encounters leading to zoonotic spillover. This relationship is evident in Australian flying foxes (Pteropus spp.; fruit bats), where acute food shortages precede clusters of Hendra virus spillovers. Using machine learning, we predicted months of food shortages from climatological and ecological covariates (1996–2022) in subtropical Australia. Overall accuracy in predicting months of low food availability on a test set from 2018 up to 2022 reached 93.33 and 92.59% based on climatological and bat-level features, respectively. Seasonality and the Oceanic El Niño Index were the most important environmental features, while the number of bats in rescue centres and their body weights were the most important bat-level features. These models support predictive signals up to nine months in advance, facilitating action to mitigate spillover risk.

Pteropus↗