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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

The Role of Hydrated Minerals and Space Weathering Products in the Bluing of Carbonaceous Asteroids

The surfaces of airless bodies such as lunar and S-type asteroids typically become spectrally redder in visible to near-infrared reflectance with longer exposures to space weathering. However, some carbonaceous asteroids instead become spectrally bluer. Space weathering experiments on carbonaceous meteorites have provided some clues as to the space weathering products that could produce spectral bluing. We applied these experimental results to our Hapke radiative transfer model, with which we modeled spectral data from the OSIRIS-REx mission in order to determine whether these space weathering products—specifically, nanophase and microphase metallic iron, troilite, and magnetite—could explain the globally blue spectrum of the carbonaceous asteroid (101955) Bennu. The model suggests that the surface of Bennu has microphase iron, nanophase magnetite, and nanophase and microphase troilite. Considering previous space weathering experiments together with our spectral modeling of Bennu, we posit that the presence of nanophase magnetite is what causes a carbonaceous asteroid to become spectrally bluer with exposure time. Nanophase magnetite can form on asteroids that have Fe-bearing hydrated minerals (phyllosilicates). On anhydrous carbonaceous asteroids, nanophase iron forms instead of magnetite, leading to spectral reddening. We therefore predict that samples returned by the OSIRIS-REx mission from Bennu will have more nanophase magnetite than nanophase iron with nanophase and microphase sulfides, whereas samples returned by the Hayabusa2 mission from the carbonaceous asteroid (162173) Ryugu, which is spectrally red, will contain nanophase and microphase sulfides as well as more nanophase iron than nanophase magnetite.

David Trang↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Early History of Ryugu’s Parent Asteroid: Evidence from Return Sample

Near-Earth Cb-type asteroid (162173) Ryugu is a rubble pile asteroid made of fragments of the original parent asteroid [1-5]. It is possible that the fragments from various depths of the original asteroid are on the surface of the present-day Ryugu. Therefore, samples collected from Ryugu are expected to retain formation and evolution history of the interior of Ryugu’s parent asteroid. In this study, we will focus on understanding the early history of Ryugu’s parent asteroid. For this purpose, we need to understand: 1) when and where in the solar nebula Ryugu’s parent asteroid formed, 2) the original mineralogy and the abundance and composition of water-rich ice in the accreted materials, 3) how these materials chemically and mineralogically evolved, and 4) how the parent body was destroyed by a catastrophic collision.

T. Nakamura↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Late Accretion of large Dark Asteroids and Their Implantation into the Outer Main Belt

Dark (geometric albedo < 0.09) asteroidsare genetically linked to carbonaceous chondrites. Most of these asteroids are located in the mid-outer main belt (2.5 < a < 4.0 AU)and thought to be remnants of the primary accretion of the first solar system planetesimals. Here we presentnew near-infrared (NIR: ~0.5-4.0 μm) reflectance spectra of dark and large (diameter > 100 km) asteroidsmeasured atNASA Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF).We place the astronomical observations of these large dark asteroids in the context of the thermal evolution and dynamical models and provide new interpretations for the origin and evolution of these asteroids. The astronomical observations together with thermal evolution and dynamical modeling show late accretion and implantation to a confined heliocentric region (~3.0 < a < 3.4 AU)for these large dark asteroids, in agreement with the dynamical predictions. Average densities of large and dark asteroids suggest highly porous interiors and, consequently, relatively late accretion ata time of 1.5-3.5 Myr relative to the formation of calcium-aluminum-rich inclusions with maximum interior temperatures of < 900 K. This work demonstrates that thederived accretion times of large dark asteroids do not correlate in any way with their current semimajor axes. Large and dark asteroidswere likely implanted from more distant regions of the solar system during the giant planet’s dynamical instability. The discovery of dark large asteroids that are smaller than Ceres near its orbital vicinity suggests that this dwarf planet is not unique in the main belt and its surface composition is not driven by its very large size.

Driss Takir↗
NASA NTRS2022

Spectral Evolution of Dark Asteroid Surfaces Induced by Space Weathering Over a Decade

The surfaces of airless bodies like asteroids in the solar system are known to be affected by space weathering. Experiments simulating space weathering are essential for studying the effects of this process on meteorite samples, but the problem is that the time spent to reproduce space weathering in these experiments is billions of times shorter than the actual phenomenon. In 2010 December, the T-type asteroid 596 Scheila underwent a collision with an impactor a few tens of meters in size. A decade later, there is an opportunity to study how the surface layer of this asteroid is being altered by space weathering after the impact. To do so, we performed visible spectrophotometric and near-infrared spectroscopic observations of 596 Scheila. The acquired spectrum is consistent with those observed shortly after the 2010 impact event within the observational uncertainty range. This indicates that the surface color of dark asteroids is not noticeably changed by space weathering over a 10 yr period. This study is the first to investigate color changes due to space weathering on an actual asteroid surface in the solar system. Considering that fresh layers are regularly created on asteroid surfaces by collisions, we suggest a genetic link between D/T-type and dark (low albedo) X-complex asteroids and very red objects such as 269 Justitia, 732 Tjilaki, and 203 Pompeja. New observations show that 203 Pompeja has an X-type-like surface, with some local surface areas exhibiting a very red spectrum.

Sunao Hasegawa↗
NASA NTRS2015

Terrestrial Planet Formation Constrained By Mars and the Structure of the Asteroid Belt

Reproducing the large Earth/Mars mass ratio requires a strong mass depletion in solids within the protoplanetary disc between 1 and 3 au. The Grand Tack model invokes a specific migration history of the giant planets to remove most of the mass initially beyond 1 au and to dynamically excite the asteroid belt. However, one could also invoke a steep density gradient created by inward drift and pile-up of small particles induced by gas drag, as has been proposed to explain the formation of close-in super-Earths. Here we show that the asteroid belt’s orbital excitation provides a crucial constraint against this scenario for the Solar system. We performed a series of simulations of terrestrial planet formation and asteroid belt evolution starting from discs of planetesimals and planetary embryos with various radial density gradients and including Jupiter and Saturn on nearly circular and coplanar orbits. Discs with shallow density gradients reproduce the dynamical excitation of the asteroid belt by gravitational self-stirring but form Mars analogues significantly more massive than the real planet. In contrast, a disc with a surface density gradient proportional to r(exp −5.5) reproduces the Earth/Mars mass ratio but leaves the asteroid belt in a dynamical state that is far colder than the real belt. We conclude that no disc profile can simultaneously explain the structure of the terrestrial planets and asteroid belt. The asteroid belt must have been depleted and dynamically excited by a different mechanism such as, for instance, in the Grand Tack scenario.

Numerical methods↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Deep and Wide Twilight Survey for Asteroids Interior to Earth and Venus

We are conducting a survey using twilight time on the Dark Energy Camera with the Blanco 4 m telescope in Chile to look for objects interior to Earth's and Venus' orbits. To date we have discovered two rare Atira/Apohele asteroids, 2021 LJ4 and 2021 PH27, which have orbits completely interior to Earth's orbit. We also discovered one new Apollo-type Near Earth Object (NEO) that crosses Earth's orbit, 2022 AP7. Two of the discoveries have diameters ≳1 km. 2022 AP7 is likely the largest Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA) discovered in about eight years. To date we have covered 624 square degrees of sky near to and interior to the orbit of Venus. The average images go to 21.3 mag in the *r* band, with the best images near 22nd mag. Our new discovery 2021 PH27 has the smallest semimajor axis known for an asteroid, 0.4617 au, and the largest general relativistic effects (53 arcsec/century) known for any body in the solar system. The survey has detected ∼15% of all known Atira NEOs. We put strong constraints on any stable population of Venus co-orbital resonance objects existing, as well as the Atira and Vatira asteroid classes. These interior asteroid populations are important to complete the census of asteroids near Earth, including some of the most likely Earth impactors that cannot easily be discovered in other surveys. Comparing the actual population of asteroids found interior to Earth and Venus with those predicted to exist by extrapolating from the known population exterior to Earth is important to better understand the origin, composition, and structure of the NEO population.

Scott S. Sheppard↗
NASA NTRS2024

Bulk Major and Trace Elemental Composition of an Aggregate Sample From Asteroid Bennu

On September 24, 2023, NASA’s OSIRIS-REx mission returned a capsule to Earth carrying material from asteroid Bennu. This event was the first time a U.S. mission delivered pristine samples from an asteroid and is the largest asteroid sample return to date. As these samples represent some of the oldest, most primitive, and pristine materials available to us, and which originate from a known and well-studied asteroid, they allow us a rare opportunity to gain a better understanding of the formation and evolution of our solar system. Key to understanding the material returned from asteroid Bennu is establishing its bulk chemical composition. Previous studies have shown that each chondrite group has a distinct elemental composition. For the carbonaceous chondrites specifically, each group exhibits a distinct pattern of moderately and highly volatile elemental depletions, relative to CI chondrites. CI chondrites are considered the most primitive chondrite group and broadly represent the solar photosphere composition. The two most striking features of these depletion patterns is that the moderately volatile element depletions increase with decreasing 50% condensation temperature and then plateau out at abundances that roughly correlate with matrix abundance. Due to these distinctive patterns, bulk elemental composition has become an important classification tool for establishing the different chondrite groups and the connections between them. As such, determining the bulk chemical composition of the Bennu aggregates will help to test two mission hypothesis: “Bennu’s bulk elemental composition reflects that of its main parent asteroid and is similar to the composition of the Sun, with depletions in moderately to highly volatile elements” and “Bennu’s dominant lithologies are comparable in bulk mineralogy, petrology, and composition to the most aqueously altered carbonaceous chondrites” . Furthermore as the carbonaceous and non-carbonaceous chondrites are thought to have likely formed in the inner and outer protoplanetary disk, respectively (e.g., [8]), determining the bulk chemical compositions of the Bennu aggregates will also help test the major mission hypothesis that “Bennu's parent body formed beyond the snow line by accretion of material in the pro-toplanetary disk” . Regarding chondrite formation, observed elemental patterns have been successfully used to model how the mixing of volatile-rich and volatile-poor chondritic components can produce the observed carbonaceous chondrites groups. They have also been significant in investigating how volatilization processes influenced chondrite formation. As such, establishing bulk chemical compositions of the pristine Bennu samples is vital for understanding the asteroid, and solar system formation. To begin this processes, we analyzed the bulk major and trace elemental compositions of Bennu aggregates.

P Koefoed↗
NASA NTRS2024

Constraining the Surface Exposure Age of Asteroid Bennu Using Cosmogenic Radionuclides in an OSIRIS-REx Aggregate Sample and Individual Particles

Observations by NASA’s OSIRIS-REx spacecraft of asteroid Bennu revealed evidence that this small rubble-pile asteroid experiences several active surface processes that likely control its recent surface exposure history. In October 2020, the spacecraft collected a surface sample from a relatively young ~20 m diameter crater (Hokioi) on asteroid Bennu, and the sample was successfully delivered to Earth on September 24, 2023. Based on the population of craters >50 m diameter, Bennu’s surface is 0.1–1 Ga old, but the old surface is affected by recent processes including smaller meteoroid impacts, mass movement, and particle ejections. The sampling location within Hokioi crater was selected based on its relatively flat surface devoid of large boulders, but the crater floor is also believed to be one of the youngest surfaces on asteroid Bennu, with an age of <100 kyr. As the crater is ~2 m deep, the samples that were collected by OSIRIS-REx may have been relatively shielded from cosmic rays during most of its recent history. This scenario is different from the samples that were collected by Hayabusa2 from asteroid Ryugu, where cosmogenic noble gas and radionuclides indicate cosmic-ray exposure (CRE) ages of ~5 Myr near the surface. Our goal is to understand the recent exposure history of surface samples of asteroid Bennu utilizing radionuclides ( 10 Be, 26 Al, 36 Cl, 41 Ca) produced by both galactic (GCR) and solar (SCR) cosmic rays. With half- lives ranging from 0.1 to 1.36 million years (Myr), the concentrations of these cosmogenic nuclides provide information on the duration and exposure conditions (irradiation depth) of these samples on a timescale of a few Myr. This work will test one of the OSIRIS-REx mission’s driving hypotheses about asteroid Bennu’s recent evolution: that Hokioi crater is part of a population of small (25 m) spectrally red craters on Bennu that are less than 0.1 Myr old.

K. C. Welten↗
DOE OSTI2021

Recurrent Activity from Active Asteroid (248370) 2005 QN 173 : A Main-belt Comet

We present archival observations of main-belt asteroid (248370) 2005 QN 173 (also designated 433P) that demonstrate this recently discovered active asteroid (a body with a dynamically asteroidal orbit displaying a tail or coma) has had at least one additional apparition of activity near perihelion during a prior orbit. We discovered evidence of this second activity epoch in an image captured 2016 July 22 with the DECam on the 4 m Blanco telescope at the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory in Chile. As of this writing, (248370) 2005 QN 173 is just the eighth active asteroid demonstrated to undergo recurrent activity near perihelion. Our analyses demonstrate (248370) 2005 QN 173 is likely a member of the active asteroid subset known as main-belt comets, a group of objects that orbit in the main asteroid belt that exhibit activity that is specifically driven by sublimation. We implement an activity detection technique, wedge photometry, that has the potential to detect tails in images of solar system objects and quantify their agreement with computed antisolar and antimotion vectors normally associated with observed tail directions. We present a catalog and an image gallery of archival observations. The object will soon become unobservable as it passes behind the Sun as seen from Earth, and when it again becomes visible (late 2022) it will be farther than 3 au from the Sun. Our findings suggest (248370) 2005 QN 173 is most active interior to 2.7 au (0.3 au from perihelion), so we encourage the community to observe and study this special object before 2021 December.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2012

Returning an Entire Near-Earth Asteroid in Support of Human Exploration Beyond Low-Earth Orbit

This paper describes the results of a study into the feasibility of identifying, robotically capturing, and returning an entire Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) to the vicinity of the Earth by the middle of the next decade. The feasibility of such an asteroid retrieval mission hinges on finding an overlap between the smallest NEAs that could be reasonably discovered and characterized and the largest NEAs that could be captured and transported in a reasonable flight time. This overlap appears to be centered on NEAs roughly 7 m in diameter corresponding to masses in the range of 250,000 kg to 1,000,000 kg. The study concluded that it would be possible to return a approx.500,000-kg NEA to high lunar orbit by around 2025. The feasibility is enabled by three key developments: the ability to discover and characterize an adequate number of sufficiently small near-Earth asteroids for capture and return; the ability to implement sufficiently powerful solar electric propulsion systems to enable transportation of the captured NEA; and the proposed human presence in cislunar space in the 2020s enabling exploration and exploitation of the returned NEA. Placing a 500-t asteroid in high lunar orbit would provide a unique, meaningful, and affordable destination for astronaut crews in the next decade. This disruptive capability would have a positive impact on a wide range of the nation's human space exploration interests. It would provide a high-value target in cislunar space that would require a human presence to take full advantage of this new resource. It would offer an affordable path to providing operational experience with astronauts working around and with a NEA that could feed forward to much longer duration human missions to larger NEAs in deep space. It represents a new synergy between robotic and human missions in which robotic spacecraft would retrieve significant quantities of valuable resources for exploitation by astronaut crews to enable human exploration farther out into the solar system. The capture, transportation, examination, and dissection of an entire NEA would provide valuable information for planetary defense activities that may someday have to deflect a much larger near-Earth object. Transportation of the NEA to lunar orbit with a total flight time of 6 to 10 years would be enabled by a ~40-kW solar electric propulsion system with a specific impulse of 3,000 s. The flight system could be launched to low-Earth orbit (LEO) on a single Atlas V-class launch vehicle, and return to lunar orbit a NEA with at least 28 times the mass launched to LEO. Longer flight times, higher power SEP systems, or a target asteroid in a particularly favorable orbit could increase the mass amplification factor from 28-to-1 to 70-to-1 or greater. The NASA GRC COMPASS team estimated the full life-cycle cost of an asteroid capture and return mission at approx.$2.6B.

solar electric propulsion↗
NASA NTRS2015

BILLIARDS: A Demonstration Mission for Hundred-Meter Class Near Earth Asteroid Disruption

Currently, no planetary defense demonstration mission has ever been flown. While Nuclear Explosive Devices (NEDs) have significantly more energy than a kinetic impactor launched directly from Earth, they present safety and political complications, and therefore may only be used when absolutely necessary. The Baseline Instrumented Lithology Lander, Inspector, and Asteroid Redirection Demonstration System (BILLIARDS) is a demonstration mission for planetary defense, which is capable of delivering comparable energy to the lower range of NED capabilities in the form of a safer kinetic impactor. A small asteroid (<10m) is captured by a spacecraft, which greatly increases the mass available as a kinetic impactor, without the need to bring all of the mass out of Earth's gravity well. The small asteroid is then deflected onto a collision course with a larger (approx. 100m) asteroid. This collision will deflect or disrupt the larger asteroid. To reduce the cost and complexity, an asteroid pair which has a natural close approach is selected.

Planetary Defense↗
DOE OSTI2025

Survey-wide asteroid discovery with a high-performance computing enabled non-linear digital tracking framework

Modern astronomical surveys detect asteroids by linking together their appearances across multiple images taken over time. This approach faces limitations in detecting faint asteroids and handling the computational complexity of trajectory linking. Here, we present a novel method that adapts “digital tracking” – traditionally used for short-term linear asteroid motion across images – to work with large-scale synoptic surveys such as the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (Rubin/LSST). Our approach combines hundreds of sparse observations of individual asteroids across their non-linear orbital paths to enhance detection sensitivity by several magnitudes. To address the computational challenges of processing massive data sets and dense orbital phase spaces, we developed a specialized high-performance computing architecture. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through experiments that take advantage of the extensive computational resources at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. This work enables the detection of significantly fainter asteroids in existing and future survey data, potentially increasing the observable asteroid population by orders of magnitude across different orbital families, from near-Earth objects (NEOs) to Kuiper belt objects (KBOs).

Asteroid discovery↗
DOE OSTI2025

Numerical simulation of asteroid geometry variance on airburst threat

For an atmospheric airburst the primary source of concern when assessing uncertainty is the size and velocity. Determining these properties provides the basis for threat assessment, as the total energy of the asteroid may then be estimated, and the threat investigated thoroughly. Even with clarity as to how much energy an asteroid may deposit, a great deal of uncertainty still exists for the actual energy deposition process. One such source of uncertainty is the geometry of the incoming asteroid. The geometry of an asteroid will alter the stress distribution during entry, which adds uncertainty to when fracture will occur. Here, in this study, we use Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics to model the atmospheric airburst of Tunguska-scale asteroids with varying geometric profiles, including a sphere, ellipsoid, binary and superellipsoid. Each asteroid is modeled as a homogenous structure with strength. We assess uncertainty through a series of planar 2D simulation cases for each geometry, comparing the source of stochasticity across geometries. A single 3D airburst simulation for each geometry is also analyzed. Additionally, the 3D cases are compared to the highly uncertain Tunguska event, predicting variance in burst height across geometries, but all bounded by theoretical burst heights proposed for Tunguska.

Airburst↗
DOE OSTI2020

A New Method for Deriving Composition of S-type Asteroids from Noisy and Incomplete Near-infrared Spectra

The surface composition of S-type asteroids can be determined using band parameters extracted from their near-infrared (NIR) spectra (0.7–2.50 μm) along with spectral calibrations derived from laboratory samples. In the past, these empirical equations have been obtained by combining NIR spectra of meteorite samples with information about their composition and mineral abundance. For these equations to give accurate results, the characteristics of the laboratory spectra they are derived from should be similar to those of asteroid spectral data (i.e., similar signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) and wavelength range). Here we present new spectral calibrations that can be used to determine the mineral composition of ordinary chondrite-like S-type asteroids. Contrary to previous work, the S/N of the ordinary chondrite spectra used in this study has been decreased to recreate the S/N typically observed among asteroid spectra, allowing us to obtain more realistic results. In addition, the new equations have been derived for five wavelength ranges encompassed between 0.7 and 2.50 μm, making it possible to determine the composition of asteroids with incomplete data. The new spectral calibrations were tested using band parameters measured from the NIR spectrum of asteroid (25143) Itokawa, and comparing the results with laboratory measurements of the returned samples. We found that the spectrally derived olivine and pyroxene chemistry, which are given by the molar contents of fayalite (Fa) and ferrosilite (Fs), are in excellent agreement with the mean values measured from the samples (Fa{sub 28.6±1.1} and Fs{sub 23.1±2.2}), with a maximum difference of 0.6 mol% for Fa and 1.4 mol% for Fs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2012

Spacecraft Conceptual Design for Returning Entire Near-Earth Asteroids

In situ resource utilization (ISRU) in general, and asteroid mining in particular are ideas that have been around for a long time, and for good reason. It is clear that ultimately human exploration beyond low-Earth orbit will have to utilize the material resources available in space. Historically, the lack of sufficiently capable in-space transportation has been one of the key impediments to the harvesting of near-Earth asteroid resources. With the advent of high-power (or order 40 kW) solar electric propulsion systems, that impediment is being removed. High-power solar electric propulsion (SEP) would be enabling for the exploitation of asteroid resources. The design of a 40-kW end-of-life SEP system is presented that could rendezvous with, capture, and subsequently transport a 1,000-metric-ton near-Earth asteroid back to cislunar space. The conceptual spacecraft design was developed by the Collaborative Modeling for Parametric Assessment of Space Systems (COMPASS) team at the Glenn Research Center in collaboration with the Keck Institute for Space Studies (KISS) team assembled to investigate the feasibility of an asteroid retrieval mission. Returning such an object to cislunar space would enable astronaut crews to inspect, sample, dissect, and ultimately determine how to extract the desired materials from the asteroid. This process could jump-start the entire ISRU industry.

asteroid retrieval↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Fragment-Cloud Model for Breakup of Asteroids with Varied Internal Structures

As an asteroid descends toward Earth, it deposits energy in the atmosphere through aerodynamic drag and ablation. Asteroid impact risk assessments rely on energy deposition estimates to predict blast overpressures and ground damage that may result from an airburst, such as the one that occurred over Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013. The rates and altitudes at which energy is deposited along the entry trajectory depend upon how the bolide fragments, which in turn depends upon its internal structure and composition. In this work, we have developed an analytic asteroid fragmentation model to assess the atmospheric energy deposition of asteroids with a range of structures and compositions. The modeling approach combines successive fragmentation of larger independent pieces with aggregate debris clouds released with each fragmentation event. The model can vary the number and masses of fragments produced, the amount of mass released as debris clouds, the size-strength scaling used to increase the robustness of smaller fragments, and other parameters. The initial asteroid body can be seeded with a distribution of independent fragment sizes amid a remaining debris mass to represent loose rubble pile conglomerations, can be given an outer regolith later, or can be defined as a coherent or fractured monolith. This approach enables the model to represent a range of breakup behaviors and reproduce detailed energy deposition features such as multiple flares due to successive burst events, high-altitude regolith blow-off, or initial disruption of rubble piles followed by more energetic breakup of the constituent boulders. These capabilities provide a means to investigate sensitivities of ground damage to potential variations in asteroid structure.

Asteroid↗
NASA NTRS1994

Satellite Dynamics about Asteroids

Current space goals for NASA include planned and proposed missions to asteroids. These missions generally call for a period of orbital operations in close proximity to the asteroid, in some cases coming within 2 radii of the asteroid. A challenge for the navigators of these missions is to predict the orbital environment about the asteroid and to derive pre-mission plans for the control of these orbits. This paper investigates the major perturbations asteroid orbiters will encounter over a range of relevant asteroid sizes.

asteroid↗
NASA NTRS2023

Risk Assessment for Asteroid Impact Threat Scenarios

Asteroid impacts can cause a wide range of damage through multiple potential hazards, from localized blast waves or thermal radiation, to tsunami inundation, to global climatic effects. The level of risk posed by these hazards depends not only upon their extent and severity, but also upon the likelihood of the various damage ranges. Some consequences may be more moderate but very likely, while others may be unlikely but catastrophic. Evaluating the risk from these hazards involves substantial uncertainties across all aspects of the problem, including the properties of the asteroid itself, the specifics of its entry, and the complex high-energy damage physics involved. NASA’s Asteroid Threat Assessment Project performs Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessments that use fast-running entry and hazard models to evaluate millions of impact cases representing the distributions of these many uncertain parameters. This paper presents current probabilistic asteroid impact risk assessment modeling tools and approaches used for evaluating specific asteroid impact threat cases. We give an overview of the current PAIR model used to support impact threat scenarios and discuss some of the key applications of these assessment in supporting response decisions and planetary defense preparedness. We then present the results and key findings from the recent 2023 PDC hypothetical impact exercise as an example of the primary types of risk results and metrics being developed to inform and support those mitigation and response decisions.

SMD↗