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At least 199 records · Page 11

Digital risk analysis in nuclear engineering projects: Designing for safety, performance, reliability, and security

Cyber-informed engineering and security-by-design frameworks are important in promoting the need to identify cybersecurity concerns early in the systems engineering lifecycle so risks from adversarial cyber-attacks can be eliminated or reduced through engineering design practices. In addition to adversarial risk, risk in operational technology systems also includes non-adversarial and unintentional risk from other factors such as human performance errors, environmental conditions, design flaws, and device degradation or failure. This paper introduces a new concept for characterizing digital risk, both adversarial and non-adversarial, and provides the basis for initial research into a novel digital risk analysis approach focused on incorporating attack difficulty into a multi-attribute analysis technique using robust decision-making. This digital risk characterization is also used to frame a discussion on the challenges of competing objectives and competing stakeholder requirements in an integrated energy system project that incorporates a small modular reactor and industrial facility.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Navigation errors encountered using weather-mapping radar for helicopter IFR guidance to oil rigs

In 1978 a joint NASA-FAA helicopter flight test was conducted to examine the use of weather-mapping radar for IFR guidance during landing approaches to oil rig helipads. The following navigation errors were measured: total system error, radar-range error, radar-bearing error, and flight technical error. Three problem areas were identified: (1) operational problems leading to pilot blunders, (2) poor navigation to the downwind final approach point, and (3) pure homing on final approach. Analysis of these problem areas suggests improvement in the radar equipment, approach procedure, and pilot training, and gives valuable insight into the development of future navigation aids to serve the off-shore oil industry.

Phillips, J. D.↗

An approach to market analysis for lighter than air transportation of freight

An approach is presented to marketing analysis for lighter than air vehicles in a commercial freight market. After a discussion of key characteristics of supply and demand factors, a three-phase approach to marketing analysis is described. The existing transportation systems are quantitatively defined and possible roles for lighter than air vehicles within this framework are postulated. The marketing analysis views the situation from the perspective of both the shipper and the carrier. A demand for freight service is assumed and the resulting supply characteristics are determined. Then, these supply characteristics are used to establish the demand for competing modes. The process is then iterated to arrive at the market solution.

Roberts, P. O.↗

Designing for auto safety

Safety design features in the motor vehicle and highway construction fields result from systems analysis approach to prevent or lessen death, injury, and property damage results. Systems analysis considers the prevention of crashes, increased survivability in crashes, and prompt medical attention to injuries as well as other postcrash salvage measures. The interface of these system elements with the driver, the vehicle, and the environment shows that action on the vehicle system produces the greatest safety payoff through design modifications. New and amended safety standards developed through hazard analysis technique improved accident statistics in the 70'; these regulations include driver qualifications and countermeasures to identify the chronic drunken driver who is involved in more than two-thirds of all auto deaths.

Elwood T. Driver↗

Parametric and experimental analysis using a power flow approach

Having defined and developed a structural power flow approach for the analysis of structure-borne transmission of structural vibrations, the technique is used to perform an analysis of the influence of structural parameters on the transmitted energy. As a base for comparison, the parametric analysis is first performed using a Statistical Energy Analysis approach and the results compared with those obtained using the power flow approach. The advantages of using structural power flow are thus demonstrated by comparing the type of results obtained by the two methods. Additionally, to demonstrate the advantages of using the power flow method and to show that the power flow results represent a direct physical parameter that can be measured on a typical structure, an experimental investigation of structural power flow is also presented. Results are presented for an L-shaped beam for which an analytical solution has already been obtained. Furthermore, the various methods available to measure vibrational power flow are compared to investigate the advantages and disadvantages of each method.

Cuschieri, J. M.↗

Generalized Augmented-State Covariance Analysis for Spaceflight

The use of linear covariance analysis techniques, also known as LinCov, has been used extensively for more than a half century for spaceflight applications. Originally, its primary purpose was to facilitate navigation analysis. For many past and current applications, the specific implementations only support navigation studies still. When the concept of an augmented-state linear covariance analysis approach was initially introduced that allowed for both navigation and trajectory dispersion analysis, the enhancement was motivated and primarily utilized to support navigation filter tuning and error budget analysis. Relatively few utilize this alternate augmented-state formulation of LinCov due to its additional complexity. The untapped potential of the augmented-state linear covariance analysis technique slowly unfolded in the past two-decades as its capability to rapidly and reliably capture the integrated closed-loop guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) system performance became more apparent. Even with this dual purpose of generating insights to both navigation errors along with trajectory and delta-v dispersions, the core theoretical development had a heavy emphasis on the impacts of the navigation system and largely neglected the details of the actual guidance, targeting, and control systems. This paper extends the navigation-centric theoretical development by formulating a generalized augmented-state covariance analysis (GAUSCOV) technique that allows for the intricacies of a variety of targeting and control strategies along with ground planning and mission operations to be more formally included in assessing the impacts to spaceflight GN&C system performance.

Linear Covariance Analysis↗

Regulatory Treatment of Low Frequency External Events under a Risk-Informed Performance-Based Licensing Pathway

Significant efforts are underway to develop and implement a risk-informed performance-based licensing framework for advanced reactors built on the establishment of an affirmative safety case. Such approaches offer the benefits of increased flexibility regarding key design and licensing decisions based on a detailed assessment and understanding of plant risk. These methods include the comprehensive analysis of scenarios that have historically been addressed through conservative and deterministic licensing analysis approaches, such as the evaluation of event sequences at frequencies of occurrence beyond the design basis. While the detailed analysis of low frequency events provides insights that can help justify alternative treatments to past conservatism, the findings are dependent on the quality and confidence associated with the analyses. The assessment of external hazards presents a unique challenge, as their potential frequency of occurrence, especially of large magnitude events, is inherently uncertain given the long return periods in question. The current project seeks to further explore the regulatory treatment of low frequency external events as part of a risk-informed performance-based framework. The goals are to identify the benefits and challenges of such approaches for advanced reactor vendors and to aid in the development of consistent and appropriate methodologies. As part of this effort, the current report summarizes initial project findings, with a focus on the evaluation of the seismic hazard. This includes an exploration of the implementation of a risk-informed performance-based approach through an example analysis. Based on the identified challenges associated with the probabilistic treatment of low frequency event sequences, additional performance-based methods were explored as complementary tools for demonstrating regulatory compliance. The report highlights key challenges and opportunities associated with the methods and outlines recommendations and future activities to assist with their implementation.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Elucidating the Onset of Plasticity in Sliding Contacts Using Differential Computational Orientation Tomography

Abstract Depending on the mechanical and thermal energy introduced to a dry sliding interface, the near-surface regions of the mated bodies may undergo plastic deformation. In this work, we use large-scale molecular dynamics simulations to generate “differential computational orientation tomographs” (dCOT) and thus highlight changes to the microstructure near tribological FCC alloy surfaces, allowing us to detect subtle differences in lattice orientation and small distances in grain boundary migration. The analysis approach compares computationally generated orientation tomographs with their undeformed counterparts via a simple image analysis filter. We use our visualization method to discuss the acting microstructural mechanisms in a load- and time-resolved fashion, focusing on sliding conditions that lead to twinning, partial lattice rotation, and grain boundary-dominated processes. Extracting and laterally averaging the color saturation value of the generated tomographs allows us to produce quantitative time- and depth-resolved maps that give a good overview of the progress and severity of near-surface deformation. Corresponding maps of the lateral standard deviation in the color saturation show evidence of homogenization processes occurring in the tribologically loaded microstructure, frequently leading to the formation of a well-defined separation between deformed and undeformed regions. When integrated into a computational materials engineering framework, our approach could help optimize material design for tribological and other deformation problems. Graphic Abstract .

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Valuation of Wind Energy Turbines Using Volatility of Wind and Price

The limitedness of the nonrenewable local energy resources in Israel, even in the background of the later gas fields’ findings, continues to force the state to devote various efforts towards ‘green’ energy development. These efforts include installations, both for the solar and for wind energy, thus improving the diversity of energy sources. While the standard discounted cash flow (DCF) method using the net present value (NPV) criterion is extensively adopted to evaluate investments, the standard DCF method is inappropriate for the rapidly changing investment climate and for the managerial flexibility in investment decisions. In recent years, the real options analysis (ROA) technique has been widely applied in many studies for the valuation of renewable energy investment projects. Taking into account the above background, we apply, in this study, the real options analysis approach for the valuation of wind energy turbines and apply it to the analysis of wind energy economic potential in Israel, which is the context of our work. We hypothesize that due to nature of wind energy production uncertainties, the ROA method is better than the alternative. The novelty of this paper includes the following: real world wind statistics of the Merom Golan site in Israel (velocity 3.73 m/s, with a standard deviation of 2.03 m/s), a realistic power generation estimation (power generation of 1205.84 kW with a standard deviation of about 0.5% in annual value which is worth about 1.3 M$ per annum), and an economic model to evaluate the profitability of such a project. We thus discuss the existing challenges of diversifying renewable energy sources in Israel by adding wind installations. Our motivation is to introduce a method which will allow investors and officials to take into account uncertainties when deciding in investing in such wind installations. The outcomes of the paper, which are obtained using the method of Weibull statistics and the Black–Scholes ROA technique, include the result that market price volatility adds to the uncertainties much more than any wind fluctuations, provided that the analysis is integrated over a long enough time.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Integrated analysis tools for trade studies of spacecraft controller and sensor locations

The present investigation was conducted with the aim to evaluate the practicality and difficulties of modern control design methods for large space structure controls. The evaluation is used as a basis for the identification of useful computer-based analysis tools which would provide insight into control characteristics of a spacecraft concept. A description is presented of the wrap-rib antenna and its packaging concept. Attention is given to active control requirements, a mathematical model of structural dynamics, aspects of sensor and actuator location, the analysis approach, controllability, observability, the concept of balanced realization, transmission zeros, singular value plots, analysis results, model reduction, and an interactive computer program. It is pointed out that the application of selected control analysis tools to the wrap-rib antenna demonstrates several capabilities which can be useful during conceptual design.

Rowell, L. F.↗

Multi-Scale Thermal Analysis for Design of SiC-Based Medium Voltage Motor Drive: Preprint

This paper describes a multi-scale thermal analysis approach for the design of an air-cooled 1.7-kV SiC MOSFET-based medium-voltage variable-speed motor drive. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory supported the project objectives by providing thermal management design support to the project partner The Ohio State University (OSU). The scope of the models and limited resources required efficient and flexible thermal models to be developed. Two modeling techniques are described that significantly reduced model run time and enabled more complex models to be run faster while retaining needed accuracy. The first technique uses the effectiveness-NTU method to extract convection boundary conditions from a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model that can be applied to a fast-running finite element analysis model. The second is a porous media technique that enables system-level CFD simulations that incorporate effects from heat exchangers (e.g., pin fin heat sinks) that run in a fraction of the time required for fully resolved CFD simulations. The multi-scale approach to the thermal analysis enabled fast and accurate simulation for the converter design ranging from the die level up to the full system with 36 submodules. The modeling results were validated against experimental data from system tests performed by OSU.

DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

A Model-Based Systems Engineering Approach for Effective Decision Support of Modern Energy Systems Depicted with Clean Hydrogen Production

A holistic approach to decision-making in modern energy systems is vital due to their increase in complexity and interconnectedness. However, decision makers often rely on narrowly-focused strategies, such as economic assessments, for energy system strategy selection. The approach in this paper helps considers various factors such as economic viability, technological feasibility, environmental impact, and social acceptance. By integrating these diverse elements, decision makers can identify more economically feasible, sustainable, and resilient energy strategies. While existing focused approaches are valuable since they provide clear metrics of a potential solution (e.g., an economic measure of profitability), they do not offer the much needed system-as-a-whole understanding. This lack of understanding often leads to selecting suboptimal or unfeasible solutions, which is often discovered much later in the process when a change may not be possible. This paper presents a novel evaluation framework to support holistic decision-making in energy systems. The framework is based on a systems thinking approach, applied through systems engineering principles and model-based systems engineering tools, coupled with a multicriteria decision analysis approach. The systems engineering approach guides the development of feasible solutions for novel energy systems, and the multicriteria decision analysis is used for a systematic evaluation of available strategies and objective selection of the best solution. The proposed framework enables holistic, multidisciplinary, and objective evaluations of solutions and strategies for energy systems, clearly demonstrates the pros and cons of available options, and supports knowledge collection and retention to be used for a different scenario or context. The framework is demonstrated in case study evaluation solutions for a novel energy system of clean hydrogen generation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A new analysis of beam-waveguide antennas considering the presence of the enclosure

Beam-waveguide (BWG) antennas provide multiple frequency band operations and other operational benefits for large ground-station antennas. Present design practices use diffraction analyses that ignore the presence of the BWG enclosure and may be inaccurate at lower frequency bands for ground-station antennas operating over multiple frequency bands. Introduced here is a new analysis approach that considers the presence of the BWG enclosure. Results based on the new analysis have revealed new understandings of the performance degradation mechanisms in a BWG antenna and have provided direction for potential design improvements.

Cha, A. G.↗

An Error Analysis Toolkit for Binned Counting Experiments

We introduce the MINERvA Analysis Toolkit (MAT), a utility for centralizing the handling of systematic uncertainties in HEP analyses. The fundamental utilities of the toolkit are the MnvHnD, a powerful histogram container class, and the systematic Universe classes, which provide a modular implementation of the many universe error analysis approach. These products can be used stand-alone or as part of a complete error analysis prescription. They support the propagation of systematic uncertainty through all stages of analysis, and provide flexibility for an arbitrary level of user customization. This extensible solution to error analysis enables the standardization of systematic uncertainty definitions across an experiment and a transparent user interface to lower the barrier to entry for new analyzers.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

SLS Navigation Model-Based Design Approach

The SLS Program chose to implement a Model-based Design and Model-based Requirements approach for managing component design information and system requirements. This approach differs from previous large-scale design efforts at Marshall Space Flight Center where design documentation alone conveyed information required for vehicle design and analysis and where extensive requirements sets were used to scope and constrain the design. The SLS Navigation Team has been responsible for the Program-controlled Design Math Models (DMMs) which describe and represent the performance of the Inertial Navigation System (INS) and the Rate Gyro Assemblies (RGAs) used by Guidance, Navigation, and Controls (GN&C). The SLS Navigation Team is also responsible for the navigation algorithms. The navigation algorithms are delivered for implementation on the flight hardware as a DMM. For the SLS Block 1-B design, the additional GPS Receiver hardware is managed as a DMM at the vehicle design level. This paper provides a discussion of the processes and methods used to engineer, design, and coordinate engineering trades and performance assessments using SLS practices as applied to the GN&C system, with a particular focus on the Navigation components. These include composing system requirements, requirements verification, model development, model verification and validation, and modeling and analysis approaches. The Model-based Design and Requirements approach does not reduce the effort associated with the design process versus previous processes used at Marshall Space Flight Center. Instead, the approach takes advantage of overlap between the requirements development and management process, and the design and analysis process by efficiently combining the control (i.e. the requirement) and the design mechanisms. The design mechanism is the representation of the component behavior and performance in design and analysis tools. The focus in the early design process shifts from the development and management of design requirements to the development of usable models, model requirements, and model verification and validation efforts. The models themselves are represented in C/C++ code and accompanying data files. Under the idealized process, potential ambiguity in specification is reduced because the model must be implementable versus a requirement which is not necessarily subject to this constraint. Further, the models are shown to emulate the hardware during validation. For models developed by the Navigation Team, a common interface/standalone environment was developed. The common environment allows for easy implementation in design and analysis tools. Mechanisms such as unit test cases ensure implementation as the developer intended. The model verification and validation process provides a very high level of component design insight. The origin and implementation of the SLS variant of Model-based Design is described from the perspective of the SLS Navigation Team. The format of the models and the requirements are described. The Model-based Design approach has many benefits but is not without potential complications. Key lessons learned associated with the implementation of the Model Based Design approach and process from infancy to verification and certification are discussed

Oliver, T. Emerson↗

Three-dimensional boundary element thermal shape sensitivity analysis

A computationally efficient and accurate shape design sensitivity analysis approach for the thermal response of 3D solid objects is presented which utilizes a direct, singular, boundary element analysis formulation. The theoretical formulation for the primary response (the surface temperature and normal heat flux) sensitivities and the secondary response (tangential components of the heat flux, vector, interior point temperature and heat flux vector components) sensitivities are presented. A number of computational issues related to the overall efficiency of implementation of these formulations are discussed. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of this approach.

Prasad, K. G.↗