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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Expanding Medicaid to Reduce Human Immunodeficiency Virus Transmission in Houston, Texas

Context: Medicaid expansion has been nationally shown to improve engagement in the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment and prevention continua, which are vital steps to stopping the HIV epidemic. New HIV infections in the United States are disproportionately concentrated among young Black men who have sex with men (YBMSM). Houston, TX, is the most populous city in the Southern United States with a racially/ethnically diverse population that is located in 1 of 11 US states that have not yet expanded Medicaid coverage as of 2021. Methods: An agent-based model that incorporated the sexual networks of YBMSM was used to simulate improved antiretroviral treatment and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) engagement through Medicaid expansion in Houston, TX. Analyses considered the HIV incidence (number of new infections and as a rate metric) among YBMSM over the next 10 years under Medicaid expansion as the primary outcome. Additional scenarios, involving viral suppression and PrEP uptake above the projected levels achieved under Medicaid expansion, were also simulated. Results: The baseline model projected an HIV incidence rate of 4.96 per 100 person years (py) and about 368 new annual HIV infections in the 10th year. Improved HIV treatment and prevention continua engagement under Medicaid expansion resulted in a 14.9% decline in the number of annual new HIV infections in the 10th year. Increasing viral suppression by an additional 15% and PrEP uptake by 30% resulted in a 44.0% decline in new HIV infections in the 10th year, and a 27.1% decline in cumulative infections across the 10 years of the simulated intervention. Findings: Simulation results indicate that Medicaid expansion has the potential to reduce HIV incidence among YBMSM in Houston. Achieving HIV elimination objectives, however, might require additional effective measures to increase antiretroviral treatment and PrEP uptake beyond the projected improvements under expanded Medicaid.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Food And Agriculture Supply Chain Model

This model is part of an LDRD effort to investigate the connection of food and agriculture supply chain and the critical infrastructure. The model was built for a small number of farmers, shippers, processing companies and retailers as proof of concept to illustrate supply chain impacts. In this model, the emphasis is on understanding the climate change impacts on the food supply chain. The model uses agent-based modeling method in combination with machine learning. It also connects logistic simulation with economic principles such as price change caused by supply and demand, and consumer substitution effect based on price comparisons of two substitutable commodities.

Nguyen, Thuy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating SWAT + model uncertainties for human and natural outcomes: Application in a Great Lakes agricultural watershed

Nutrient exports from agricultural lands in the Great Lakes Region pose significant threats to water quality and ecological health through eutrophication, hypoxia, and harmful algal blooms. Climate change and agricultural adaptation practices complicate future nutrient loading due to intensified hydrologic cycles and land use decisions. Our research focuses on evaluating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) plus model parametric uncertainties for human and natural outcomes across different scales. These factors are integral to ensuring a balance between productive agricultural practices and maintaining the health of watershed hydrology. However, uncertainties in modeling such complex interactions pose significant challenges, limiting our ability to precisely determine critical factors that influence crop yield and soil moisture. Our analysis employs Sobol global sensitivity analysis to evaluate first-order, second order, and total-order indices for SWAT crop growth parameter, ensuring comprehensive assessment of individual and interactive effects on model outputs. The objective is to identify the parameters that significantly affect model outputs for crop yield and soil moisture and improve our understanding of their interactions at the basin and hydrological response unit (HRU) scale. Our case study, the Portage River Watershed, which drains into Lake Erie, is chosen to better capture finer scale interactions crucial for predicting nutrient loading under future climate scenarios. This foundational work is aimed at setting the stage for the future development of an agent-based model (ABM). The ABM model would incorporate SWAT outputs to dynamically simulate decision-making processes.

Bunyon, Enock↗
NASA NTRS2015

Understanding Air Transportation Market Dynamics Using a Search Algorithm for Calibrating Travel Demand and Price

This paper presents a search algorithm based framework to calibrate origin-destination (O-D) market specific airline ticket demands and prices for the Air Transportation System (ATS). This framework is used for calibrating an agent based model of the air ticket buy-sell process - Airline Evolutionary Simulation (Airline EVOS) -that has fidelity of detail that accounts for airline and consumer behaviors and the interdependencies they share between themselves and the NAS. More specificially, this algorithm simultaneous calibrates demand and airfares for each O-D market, to within specified threshold of a pre-specified target value. The proposed algorithm is illustrated with market data targets provided by the Transportation System Analysis Model (TSAM) and Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B). Although we specify these models and datasources for this calibration exercise, the methods described in this paper are applicable to calibrating any low-level model of the ATS to some other demand forecast model-based data. We argue that using a calibration algorithm such as the one we present here to synchronize ATS models with specialized forecast demand models, is a powerful tool for establishing credible baseline conditions in experiments analyzing the effects of proposed policy changes to the ATS.

Kumar, Vivek↗
DOE OSTI2021

Farmer characteristics and decision-making: A model for bioenergy crop adoption

We report the commercial development of biofuels and bioproducts depends on whether renewable biomass feedstock is available while not directly competing with the production of food. Farmers are one of the most important stakeholders in the biofuel supply chain and confront a range of uncertainties while entering the bioenergy market. Their decision-making process is extremely complex and rarely purely rational. Modeling farmer behavior requires considering a wide range of individual-level factors, socio-temporal dynamics, institutional settings, and their interactions. These characteristics make agent-based modeling a suitable framework for evaluating such systems. We developed a model to simulate farmer bioenergy crop adoption behavior across a 50-county study region in Nebraska, Kansas, and Colorado. The analysis considers adoption decisions for two bioenergy feedstocks, crop residues and energy crops. We examine the influence of individual and farm characteristics, market structure, social networks, and media influence on farmer adoption decisions. Our results indicate that different factors can have varied impacts on the speed of adoption for the crop residues and energy crops. Identifying levers that have the most impact on grower adoption can inform the design of interventions both from policy and private sector standpoints with important implications for the future the bioenergy industry.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS2011

Entanglement in Self-Supervised Dynamics

A new type of correlation has been developed similar to quantum entanglement in self-supervised dynamics (SSD). SSDs have been introduced as a quantum-classical hybrid based upon the Madelung equation in which the quantum potential is replaced by an information potential. As a result, SSD preserves the quantum topology along with superposition, entanglement, and wave-particle duality. At the same time, it can be implemented in any scale including the Newtonian scale. The main properties of SSD associated with simulating intelligence have been formulated. The attention with this innovation is focused on intelligent agents interaction based upon the new fundamental non-New tonian effect; namely, entanglement.

Zak, Michail↗
DOE OSTI2020

Use of a controlled experiment and computational models to measure the impact of sequential peer exposures on decision making

It is widely believed that one’s peers influence product adoption behaviors. This relationship has been linked to the number of signals a decision-maker receives in a social network. But it is unclear if these same principles hold when the “pattern” by which it receives these signals vary and when peer influence is directed towards choices which are not optimal. To investigate that, we manipulate social signal exposure in an online controlled experiment using a game with human participants. Each participant in the game decides among choices with differing utilities. We observe the following: (1) even in the presence of monetary risks and previously acquired knowledge of the choices, decision-makers tend to deviate from the obvious optimal decision when their peers make a similar decision which we call the influence decision, (2) when the quantity of social signals vary over time, the forwarding probability of the influence decision and therefore being responsive to social influence does not necessarily correlate proportionally to the absolute quantity of signals. To better understand how these rules of peer influence could be used in modeling applications of real world diffusion and in networked environments, we use our behavioral findings to simulate spreading dynamics in real world case studies. We specifically try to see how cumulative influence plays out in the presence of user uncertainty and measure its outcome on rumor diffusion, which we model as an example of sub-optimal choice diffusion. Together, our simulation results indicate that sequential peer effects from the influence decision overcomes individual uncertainty to guide faster rumor diffusion over time. However, when the rate of diffusion is slow in the beginning, user uncertainty can have a substantial role compared to peer influence in deciding the adoption trajectory of a piece of questionable information.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate modeling of Cellular-Potts agent-based models as a segmentation task using the U-Net neural network architecture

The Cellular-Potts model is a powerful and ubiquitous framework for developing computational models for simulating complex multicellular biological systems. Cellular-Potts models (CPMs) are often computationally expensive due to the explicit modeling of interactions among large numbers of individual model agents and diffusive fields described by partial differential equations (PDEs). In this work, we develop a convolutional neural network (CNN) surrogate model using a U-Net architecture that accounts for periodic boundary conditions. We use this model to accelerate the evaluation of a mechanistic CPM previously used to investigate in vitro vasculogenesis. The surrogate model was trained to predict 100 computational steps ahead (Monte-Carlo steps, MCS), accelerating simulation evaluations by a factor of 562 times compared to single-core CPM code execution on CPU. Over short timescales of up to 3 recursive evaluations, or 300 MCS, our model captures the emergent behaviors demonstrated by the original Cellular-Potts model such as vessel sprouting, extension and anastomosis, and contraction of vascular lacunae. This approach demonstrates the potential for deep learning to serve as a step toward efficient surrogate models for CPM simulations, enabling faster evaluation of computationally expensive CPM simulations of biological processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Architecture for Co-Simulation of Transportation and Distribution Systems with Electric Vehicle Charging at Scale in the San Francisco Bay Area

This work describes the Grid-Enhanced, Mobility-Integrated Network Infrastructures for Extreme Fast Charging (GEMINI) architecture for the co-simulation of distribution and transportation systems to evaluate EV charging impacts on electric distribution systems of a large metropolitan area and the surrounding rural regions with high fidelity. The current co-simulation is applied to Oakland and Alameda, California, and in future work will be extended to the full San Francisco Bay Area. It uses the HELICS co-simulation framework to enable parallel instances of vetted grid and transportation software programs to interact at every model timestep, allowing high-fidelity simulations at a large scale. This enables not only the impacts of electrified transportation systems across a larger interconnected collection of distribution feeders to be evaluated, but also the feedbacks between the two systems, such as through control systems, to be captured and compared. The findings are that with moderate passenger EV adoption rates, inverter controls combined with some distribution system hardware upgrades can maintain grid voltages within ANSI C.84 range A limits of 0.95 to 1.05 p.u. without smart charging. However, EV charging control may be required for higher levels of charging or to reduce grid upgrades, and this will be explored in future work.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Response of Precipitation Extremes to the Twentieth- and Twenty-First-Century Global Temperature Change in a Comprehensive Suite of CESM1 Large Ensemble Simulation: Revisiting the Role of Forcing Agents Vs. the Role of Forcing Magnitudes

The response of precipitation extremes (PEs) to global warming is found to be nonlinear in Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and other global climate models (Pendergrass et al., 2019), which led to the concern that it is not accurate to approximate the response of PE to a single forcing as the difference between simulations with all forcing agents and those that exclude one specific forcing. This calls into question previous model-based results that the sensitivity of PE with warming due to aerosol forcing is significantly larger than that due to greenhouse gases (GHGs). We reevaluate the PE sensitivity to GHGs and aerosols using available CESM1 ensemble simulations. We show that although the PE response to warming is nonlinear in CESM1, especially for the high warming projected in the twenty-first-century, PE sensitivity to aerosols is still significantly stronger than that due to GHGs when the comparison is made within similar warming regimes to avoid the bias induced by the nonlinear behavior. But the difference is smaller than previously estimated. We also conclude that the additivity assumption is largely valid to isolate the PE response due to aerosol forcing from the paired simulations including the “all forcing” experiment when the warming regime is small (e.g., 1°C–2°C in the next few decades when aerosol forcing is projected to decline and becomes a major source of uncertainty for model projection).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning for Real-World Signalized Traffic Corridor Control

Signalized traffic control problem has been addressed recently with deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) approaches involving diverse state, action, and reward structures. While significant progress has been noted in the literature, open challenges still remain in the areas of adaptive signal phase timing, coordination in a multi-intersection corridor setting, and consideration of real-world traffic conditions. In the context of deep RL-based problem framing, extensions are needed that enable adaptive signal phase timings in an intersection agent's action space, computationally efficient information sharing among neighboring signalized intersection agents along a corridor, and experimentation in realistic simulation environments. In this paper, we develop a deep Advantage Actor Critic (A2C) multi-agent RL (MARL) approach capturing the research extensions above and apply it within a real-world calibrated Aimsun Next traffic corridor simulation model based on traffic data from the City of Coral Gables, Florida. For a multi-intersection corridor control setting, our numerical simulation experiments with a decentralized A2C MARL algorithm applied at different time periods led to a total average corridor travel delay reduction (expressed in seconds/mile averaged over vehicles) from 4.9% to 19.9% compared to state-of-the-art actuated control.

Shuvo, Salman S. [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)]↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the Performance of a Circular Economy for Wind Energy Technologies: A Summary of Three Analytical Tools

A circular economy emphasizes the efficient use of all resources and presents opportunities for addressing series of economic and environmental objectives at local, regional, and national levels. Despite anticipated overall benefits to society, the transition to a circular economy is likely to create regional differences in impacts. As a result, it is important to evaluate the performance and tradeoffs associated with circular economy transitions. This poster summaries three previously published analytical tools that were used to assess the performance of developing a circular economy for wind energy technologies: the Renewable Energy Materials Properties Database (REMPD), a circular economy agent-based model for wind blades (CE Wind ABM), and the Circular Economy Lifecycle Assessment and Visualization (CELAVI) framework. The REMPD is a comprehensive database of materials used in wind and solar plants, including material quantities and physical materials availability. The CE Wind ABM allows us to understand how wind stakeholders' end-of-life behaviors influence wind blade circularity and evaluate the impact of regional variables (e.g., logistics and transportation). And, the CELAVI framework is a modular framework that can be used to evaluate the impacts associated with circular economy transitions. These three analytical tools have been applied to evaluate circular economy transitions for wind energy technologies and they could be expanded to other technologies and products.

agent-based modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Electric Vehicle Charging Load Using Origin-Destination Data

The accelerating adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) poses challenges to the power grid, necessitating precise representation of mobility patterns for effective infrastructure upgrades. Traditional simulation-based charging demand estimation faces limitations in generating trip chains reflective of actual travel patterns without complex network modeling. Hence, an innovative agent-based trip chain generation model is introduced to overcome these challenges. Drawing from the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and the NextGen NHTS origin-destination add-on data for Clarke County, Georgia, this study proposes a simulation method capturing both temporal and spatial mobility patterns without relying on extensive network topology data. The resulting trip chains predict EV charging load at the Census Block Group level, validated with a 1.03 correlation to actual trip counts, affirming their reflective accuracy. Two charging scenarios, residential-only and charging-everywhere, reveal distinct demand profiles. The charging-everywhere scenario aligns closely with the trip profile, while the residential-only scenario exhibits an afternoon peak slightly surpassing the former. This study contributes a data-driven charging demand estimation methodology, offering critical insights for grid resiliency planning amid the evolving landscape of EV adoption.

Pan, Melrose↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding of three different polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP) based battery binders blends on graphene surfaces from first principles via DFT simulations

Binders play a crucial role in binding electrodes, current collectors, and conductive agents during battery manufacturing. The selection of the binders and their blends considerably affect various properties such as mechanical durability, adhesion performance, ionic/electronic conductivities, and solid electrolyte interface stability for lithium-ion batteries. In this work, polyvinylidene di-fluoride (PVDF), polyacrylic acid (PAA), polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP), and lithiated polyacrylic acid (Li-PAA) were selected as the model binders, and their blends were studied on graphene surfaces. Further, among them, PVDF is hardly soluble in water unlike the other binders, so in practice, the blend of PVP:PVDF is not thought to be a proper combination. However, the PVP:PVDF binder has also been included because the purpose of this work is to calculate several electronic properties such as binding energies, intermolecular interaction energies, bond critical points, electron density, and the Laplacian of electron density at critical bonding regions of all these blends at the molecular level via density functional theory (DFT) simulations in order to evaluate and compare how is the interaction strength and bonding type of three different lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) binder blends on graphene surfaces. Most stable binder pairs and their binding mechanisms on graphene surfaces were studied. The delocalization of lithium in Li-PAA was studied with the presence of water.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS1999

Reinforcement Learning in a Nonstationary Environment: The El Farol Problem

This paper examines the performance of simple learning rules in a complex adaptive system based on a coordination problem modeled on the El Farol problem. The key features of the El Farol problem are that it typically involves a medium number of agents and that agents' pay-off functions have a discontinuous response to increased congestion. First we consider a single adaptive agent facing a stationary environment. We demonstrate that the simple learning rules proposed by Roth and Er'ev can be extremely sensitive to small changes in the initial conditions and that events early in a simulation can affect the performance of the rule over a relatively long time horizon. In contrast, a reinforcement learning rule based on standard practice in the computer science literature converges rapidly and robustly. The situation is reversed when multiple adaptive agents interact: the RE algorithms often converge rapidly to a stable average aggregate attendance despite the slow and erratic behavior of individual learners, while the CS based learners frequently over-attend in the early and intermediate terms. The symmetric mixed strategy equilibria is unstable: all three learning rules ultimately tend towards pure strategies or stabilize in the medium term at non-equilibrium probabilities of attendance. The brittleness of the algorithms in different contexts emphasize the importance of thorough and thoughtful examination of simulation-based results.

Bell, Ann Maria↗
NASA NTRS1992

Distributed environmental control

We present an architecture of distributed, independent control agents designed to work with the Computer Aided System Engineering and Analysis (CASE/A) simulation tool. CASE/A simulates behavior of Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS). We describe a lattice of agents capable of distributed sensing and overcoming certain sensor and effector failures. We address how the architecture can achieve the coordinating functions of a hierarchical command structure while maintaining the robustness and flexibility of independent agents. These agents work between the time steps of the CASE/A simulation tool to arrive at command decisions based on the state variables maintained by CASE/A. Control is evaluated according to both effectiveness (e.g., how well temperature was maintained) and resource utilization (the amount of power and materials used).

Cleveland, Gary A.↗
NASA NTRS1997

An Agent-Based Cockpit Task Management System

An agent-based program to facilitate Cockpit Task Management (CTM) in commercial transport aircraft is developed and evaluated. The agent-based program called the AgendaManager (AMgr) is described and evaluated in a part-task simulator study using airline pilots.

Funk, Ken↗
NASA NTRS2014

Simulation and Control Lab Development for Power and Energy Management for NASA Manned Deep Space Missions

The development of distributed hierarchical and agent-based control systems will allow for reliable autonomous energy management and power distribution for on-orbit missions. Power is one of the most critical systems on board a space vehicle, requiring quick response time when a fault or emergency is identified. As NASAs missions with human presence extend beyond low earth orbit autonomous control of vehicle power systems will be necessary and will need to reliably function for long periods of time. In the design of autonomous electrical power control systems there is a need to dynamically simulate and verify the EPS controller functionality prior to use on-orbit. This paper presents the work at NASA Glenn Research Center in Cleveland, Ohio where the development of a controls laboratory is being completed that will be utilized to demonstrate advanced prototype EPS controllers for space, aeronautical and terrestrial applications. The control laboratory hardware, software and application of an autonomous controller for demonstration with the ISS electrical power system is the subject of this paper.

Space Flight↗