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DOE OSTI2015

Technoeconomic Modeling of Battery Energy Storage in SAM

Detailed comprehensive lead-acid and lithium-ion battery models have been integrated with photovoltaic models in an effort to allow System Advisor Model (SAM) to offer the ability to predict the performance and economic benefit of behind the meter storage. In a system with storage, excess PV energy can be saved until later in the day when PV production has fallen, or until times of peak demand when it is more valuable. Complex dispatch strategies can be developed to leverage storage to reduce energy consumption or power demand based on the utility rate structure. This document describes the details of the battery performance and economic models in SAM.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Integration, Validation, and Application of a PV Snow Coverage Model in SAM

Due to the increasing deployment of PV systems in snowy climates, there is significant interest in a method capable of estimating PV losses resulting from snow coverage that has been verified for a wide variety of system designs and locations. A scattering of independent snow coverage models have been developed over the last 15 years; however, there has been very little effort spent on verifying these models beyond the system design and location on which they were based. Moreover, none of the major PV modeling software products have incorporated any of these models into their workflow. In response to this deficiency, we have integrated the methodology of the snow model developed in the paper by Marion et al. [1] into the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) System Advisor Model (SAM). In this work we describe how the snow model is implemented in SAM and discuss our demonstration of the model's effectiveness at reducing error in annual estimations for two PV arrays. Following this, we use this new functionality in conjunction with a long term historical dataset to estimate average snow losses across the United States for a typical PV system design. The open availability of the snow loss estimation capability in SAM to the PV modeling community, coupled with our results of the nation-wide study, will better equip the industry to accurately estimate PV energy production in areas affected by snowfall.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

SAM Photovoltaic Model Technical Reference 2016 Update

This manual describes the photovoltaic performance model in the System Advisor Model (SAM) software, Version 2016.3.14 Revision 4 (SSC Version 160). It is an update to the 2015 edition of the manual, which describes the photovoltaic model in SAM 2015.1.30 (SSC 41). This new edition includes corrections of errors in the 2015 edition and descriptions of new features introduced in SAM 2016.3.14, including: 3D shade calculator Battery storage model DC power optimizer loss inputs Snow loss model Plane-of-array irradiance input from weather file option Support for sub-hourly simulations Self-shading works with all four subarrays, and uses same algorithm for fixed arrays and one-axis tracking Linear self-shading algorithm for thin-film modules Loss percentages replace derate factors. The photovoltaic performance model is one of the modules in the SAM Simulation Core (SSC), which is part of both SAM and the SAM SDK. SAM is a user-friedly desktop application for analysis of renewable energy projects. The SAM SDK (Software Development Kit) is for developers writing their own renewable energy analysis software based on SSC. This manual is written for users of both SAM and the SAM SDK wanting to learn more about the details of SAM's photovoltaic model.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2019

CSP Systems Analysis - Final Project Report

The CSP Systems Analysis project was a three-year effort supporting the Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Subprogram within the Solar Energy Technologies Office of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The goal of the CSP Systems Analysis project was to provide timely and accurate CSP cost data to the DOE and predict performance and cost for emerging technologies that may impact research directions and industry investment. The project consisted of six, mostly independent tasks. Major accomplishments over the three-year period of performance were as follows. The NREL team maintained current cost estimates for CSP technologies by annual updates to the cost input parameters within NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM). SAM is a performance and cost simulation software that includes technology models for the primary CSP technologies. During the period from 2016 to 2018, the estimated cost within SAM's default CSP molten-salt power tower technology dropped from 13.0 to 11.1 cent/kWh (real dollars without incentives). Power cycle models for the supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) Brayton Cycle were developed and made an option within SAM's molten-salt power tower model. These models were subsequently used to evaluate the cost reduction potential of alternative salts. The partial-cooling model was found to provide the greatest cost-reduction potential due to its combination of efficiency and temperature differential across the turbine and thermal energy storage (TES) system. These studies were documented in two journal articles. NREL's optical modeling software SolTrace and SolarPILOT were made more versatile and released as open-source software to the CSP community. These tools help researchers and developers to model and optimize the optical performance of CSP collector systems. The new features were highlighted in a recorded webinar that can be accessed from the NREL SAM website. New models for solar-thermal systems, that is, applications for solar industrial process heat, were developed, validated, and installed within SAM. The analysis includes a 2018 review of linear collectors in the market that are tailored for solar process heat applications. In 2018 the NREL team also developed an annual simulation for a direct steam generation system integrated with a latent-heat TES system. This analysis was submitted for journal publication. The NREL team continued to support the exchange of information and development of CSP guidelines within the international CSP community of SolarPACES. Much of the work under this project was presented at SolarPACES, including the development of a modeling checklist to help CSP stakeholders standardize the models used for estimating CSP performance and cost. The CSP Systems Analysis project also supported DOE requests for tracking and reporting programmatic targets for the CSP Subprogram.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling and Analysis of Clean Energy and Storage Technologies (CRADA Final Report, Project 1)

The goal of this project is to provide Southern Company Services, Inc. ("Participant") with custom scripts that can be used to create an average PV energy production profile, calculate lifetime energy value, calculate capacity value, and calculate the resultant financial metrics considering those value streams. Secondly, a fuel-cell model will be added to the public version of System Advisor Model (SAM). This standalone technology will incorporate PV and battery storage, allowing the participant to model the interaction of these three technologies. By adding this capability to a public version of SAM, a broad audience will be able to consider the system performance and financial benefits of installing a fuel cell as a baseline generator with PV. Thirdly, automated dispatch algorithms will be developed and added to SAM. These algorithms will enable Southern Company to dispatch a DC-connected front-of-the-meter battery system while considering price signals and PV clipping behavior. By adding these capabilities to a public version of SAM, users will be able to consider more complex and realistic ways of dispatching a battery system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Validation of Photovoltaic Modeling Tool Solargraf Against Measured Data

Solargraf is a cloud-based 3D design tool by Enphase Energy that allows users to design solar and storage systems with a variety of elements. Through a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA), Enphase Energy collaborated with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to validate Solargraf's 3D design simulation against measured PV system performance. This study follows the same methodology of similar validation studies completed at NREL. The predicted performance results from simulations in both Solargraf and NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM) tool were compared with measured data to evaluate performance predictions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Powdermet CRADA for VELOCITI Voucher (CRADA Final Report)

NLR shall develop a model of an electric thermal energy storage (ETES) system in the System Advisor Model (SAM) framework that uses a salt and particle slurry developed by PowderMet as the thermal energy storage medium. The ETES shall consist of a recuperated sCO 2 Brayton cycle using 2-tank indirect thermal energy storage and an electric heater for heat input. The salt slurry uses chloride salt and operates at a maximum temperature of 500-720°C. The ETES uses dry air cooling. The salt slurry will be modeled as a sensible heat storage medium and as a latent heat storage medium. NLR will use the model to do parametric analysis of the factors affecting the performance (ex., round trip efficiency) of the ETES system. NLR will work with PowderMet to estimate the costs of system components and total system costs, with the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) as the primary cost metric.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dispatch Optimization, System Design and Cost Benefit Analysis of a Nuclear Reactor with Molten Salt Thermal Storage

Variable renewable energy availability has increased the volatility in energy prices in most markets. Nuclear power plants, with a large ratio of capital to variable costs, have historically operated as base load energy suppliers but the need for more flexible operation is increasing. We simulate the techno-economic performance of a 950 MWt nuclear power plant, based on the Westinghouse lead-cooled fast reactor, coupled with molten salt thermal storage as a method for flexible energy dispatch. We use the System Advisor Model to model the nuclear reactor thermal power input and power cycle operating modes. We combine this robust engineering model with a mixed-integer linear program model for optimized dispatch scheduling. We then simulate the coupled nuclear and thermal storage system under different market scenarios with varying price volatility. We find that the coupled plant outperforms the base plant under markets where energy price peaks fluctuate by a factor of two or more about the mean price. We show that a calculated power purchase agreement price for the plant improves by up to 10% when operating under California energy market conditions. Sensitivity analysis on the thermal storage cost shows that the optimal design remains unchanged even when doubling costs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Powered By SAM [Slides]

The System Advisor Model(TM) (SAM) is a free, open-source desktop application for techno-economic analysis of energy technologies. By combining detailed performance modeling with financial analysis, SAM allows users to assess technology trade-offs, explore future scenarios, and make informed decisions about energy investments. Users also have access to model details and the ability to embed SAM's core models in their own applications. This webinar, hosted by National Laboratory of the Rockies researchers Janine Keith and Matt Prilliman, highlights how this widely used modeling tool supports data-driven decision-making for energy systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Technoeconomic Opportunity Analysis for Local Power Generation in Falls City, Nebraska

Falls City is a small community in Nebraska interested in understanding how energy from local energy systems could support the community's economic development planning. To address the current community needs and address the future energy demand technical assistance conducted through the Communities Local Energy Action Program (Communities LEAP) assessed the technical and economic opportunities of adding energy technologies to Falls City's municipally owned and operated electric utility system. The modeling performed considered the technical and economic feasibility of technologies using the System Advisor Model (SAM). The modeling explored three technology configurations using multiple years of historical weather and wholesale cost data (2015-2022 & a typical meteorological year), and two different wholesale escalation rates (0.3% and 2.5%). Wholesale energy prices were based on the Southwest Power Pool's (SPP) real-time energy market and the annual escalation rates of these rates based on historical SPP wholesale and national retail electricity price trends. Results from the modeling showed that at current CAPEX costs and SPP wholesale electricity costs no technology combination averaged across the scenarios run provide a positive net present value (NPV). External financial support, changes in market conditions, and additional revenue streams would help create more economically favorable projects. As conditions change re-evaluation may be necessary.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2016

Analyzing Double Delays at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR)

When weather or congestion impacts the National Airspace System, multiple different Traffic Management Initiatives can be implemented, sometimes with unintended consequences. One particular perceived inequity that is commonly identified is in the interaction between Ground Delay Programs (GDPs) and time based scheduling of internal departures by the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) (now operationally superseded by the FAA's the Time-Based Flow Management system). Internal departures under TMA scheduling can take large GDP delays, followed by large TMA scheduling delays, because they cannot easily fit into the arrival flow at the runway. In this paper we examine the causes of these double delays through an analysis of arrival operations at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) from June to August 2010. TMA scheduling delays are found to be generally higher than TMA airborne metering delays, regardless of prior GDP delays. Depending on how the double delay is defined, between 42 and 62 of all internal departures in GDP and TMA scheduling experienced double delays in this period. A deep dive into the data reveals that contributors to double delays include upstream flights departing before their Expect Departure Clearance Times (EDCTs); differences in the rates used for setting EDCTs and TMA Scheduled Times of Arrival; differences in the arrival demand expected based on EDCTs and the arrival demand entering TMA; and shorter en route times between takeoff and entry into TMA than assumed in the calculation of flight EDCTs, all of which undermine the sequencing and spacing underlying flight EDCTs. Double delays are also found to coincide with periods in which the virtual runway arrival queue being served by a TMA is large, there are periods of high demand relative to capacity, and there are high airborne metering delays. Data mining techniques are used to confirm that each of these factors contribute to the occurrence of double delay andor high internal departure scheduling delay across three months of data from June to August 2010. Predictors of the occurrence of double delay and high TMA scheduling delay are built using logistic regression, providing prediction accuracies of 69 and 73, respectively.

traffic flow management↗

NASA NTRS2014

Trajectory Prediction Accuracy and Error Sources for Regional Jet Descents: Results of a 2010 Flight Trial at Denver International Airport using a Global 5000 Test Aircraft - Part I

The Efficient Descent Advisor (EDA) controller automation tool generates trajectory-based speed, path, and altitude-profile advisories to facilitate efficient, continuous descents into congested terminal airspace. While prior field trials have assessed the trajectory-prediction accuracy for large jet (i.e., Boeing and Airbus) types, smaller (i.e., regional and business) jet types present unique challenges involving different descent procedures and Flight Management System (FMS) capabilities. A small-jet field trial was conducted at Denver in the fall of 2010 with the objective of measuring trajectory prediction accuracy and quantifying the primary sources of error. This paper uses data collected onboard a Bombardier Global 5000 test aircraft to quantify the size and sources of trajectory prediction error. Error sources were quantified for the 44 runs by incrementally replacing predicted data with data collected onboard the aircraft and measuring the effect on time error. Results for en-route descents, from prior to top of descent to the meter fix 60-120 nmi downstream, indicate that the aircraft arrived an average 15 seconds earlier than predicted, with a standard deviation of 10 seconds. Target Mach and CAS deceleration were found to be the two largest error sources. If CAS deceleration error was reduced using a typical, more predictable level flight deceleration then the arrival time prediction error in 2010 would be on par with a 2009 flight trial of Airbus and Boeing revenue flights. Four of the error sources, tracker jumps, CAS deceleration, target Mach, and path distance, lend themselves to significant reductions with modest to no changes to ATC automation andor procedures. Wind error and its impact on arrival time error was significantly reduced in 2010 compared to a 1994 flight test using NASAs Boeing 737 test aircraft.

Trajectory Prediction Error↗

NASA NTRS2014

Trajectory Prediction Accuracy and Error Sources for Regional Jet Descents: Results of a 2010 Flight Trial at Denver International Airport using SkyWest Revenue Flights - Part II

The Efficient Descent Advisor (EDA) controller automation tool generates trajectory-based speed, path, and altitude-profile advisories to facilitate efficient, continuous descents into congested terminal airspace. While prior field trials have assessed the trajectory prediction accuracy for large jet (i.e., Boeing and Airbus) types, smaller (i.e., regional and business) jet types present unique challenges involving different descent procedures and Flight Management System (FMS) capabilities. This paper quantifies the trajectory prediction accuracy for small jet revenue flight descents based on SkyWest Canadair Regional Jet 200, 700, and 900 aircraft arrivals to Denver in the fall of 2010. Post flight test data analysis and SkyWest pilot interviews uncovered unexpected variation between flight crews due to different interpretations of (1) which fixed flight path angle (FPA) to fly based on the flight trial procedure and (2) how to fly the descent to achieve the target FPA. Pilot reports were used to select a subset of flights where pilots indicated an FPA according to the flight trial procedure to remove the unexpected variation due to (1) to focus on (2). Results for the subset for en-route descents, from prior to top of descent to the meter fix 30 to 130 nmi downstream, indicate that aircraft arrived to the meter fix six seconds early with about a twelve second standard deviation. Large FPA errors up to one degree relative to the EDA flight trial procedure were detected after the flight trial as a characteristic of the unexpected variation. It is recommended that quantitative validation be performed during future flight trials so that experimental procedures can be adjusted if unexpected results are detected.

Field Test Results↗

DOE OSTI2018

NREL Tools Help Identify and Evaluate Renewable Energy Projects

NREL offers no-cost, publicly available web tools that can be used throughout the development of behind-the-meter renewable energy projects. These tools help gauge initial project potential, optimize system sizing, and refine project economics. This flyer compares four tools that can be used at various stages of project development: Economic Site Analysis (ESA) Tool, PVWatts Calculator, REopt (TM) Lite, and System Advisor Model (SAM).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2018

Bifacial Simulation in SAM

A bifacial irradiance model is introduced within the System Advisor Model (SAM). The modeling steps and implementation in SAM are presented. The results of a bifacial simulation are compared against several other modeling programs and shown to match within 1 - 2 percent for fixed-axis and horizontal single axis tracked systems. An example case study is presented to demonstrate how the model can be used to evaluate bifacial systems, with a variety of results presented to illustrate different sensitivities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Economic Dispatch for DC-Connected Battery Systems on Large PV Plants

Falling costs of energy storage combined with an increasing need to mitigate variable generation integration issues is leading to more PV projects that include batteries. Large PV plants that include batteries face challenges optimizing the value of the power they produce, especially when the batteries are DC-coupled and otherwise clipped power (due to high DC/AC ratio) is available. Multiple charging times and sources must be considered, including: grid charging, charging from PV that would otherwise be exported to the grid, and charging from clipped PV power. Then discharge schedules must be optimized against time-of-day pricing. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory in partnership with Southern Company has developed a heuristic algorithm in the System Advisor Model (SAM) which strategically charges the battery from PV and discharges the battery depending on the time-of-day prices of the PPA, the forecast PV production, and the estimated wear cost of the battery. The algorithm and case study results from a generic plant will be presented with recommendations for future work.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2018

Solar System Modeling at NREL

This workshop walked through a description and demonstration of solar modeling data and tools available from the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The topics included: The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) - updates and ways to access this sub-hourly gridded resource data; PVWatts - recent updates to include the NSRDB - opening up much of North and South America for analysis; System Advisor Model (SAM) - SAM is now open source, includes PV + batteries, bifacial panels, and much more; REOpt Lite - an online tool for quick PV and battery sizing for commercial buildings; PV Component LCOE Calculator - Allows for module costing based on components; A detailed demonstration of the SAM model for modeling a PV system with a battery and some of the questions that can be answered.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2018

Evaluating Energy Impacts and Costs from PV Component Failures: Preprint

The PV Reliability Performance Model (PV-RPM) tool is used to simulate the cost and energy impacts of component faults and failures for a hypothetical PV system. This model, originally developed by Sandia National Laboratories, is a new feature in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisor Model (SAM), which performs stochastic analysis sampling of probability distributions for faults, failures, and repairs. One PV system was created for this analysis to be representative of a portfolio of maintenance data maintained by Sandia National Laboratories. Fault, failure, and repair distributions from this system are varied from current baseline conditions to simulate different reliability and repair scenarios and resulting energy and cost impacts. Results highlight ways to express the uncertainty around PV system performance when considering the probabilistic behavior of components in the system, and ways the PV-RPM model can be used to explore different failure and repair scenarios.

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