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NASA NTRS1992

Electrophysiology of the mammillary complex in vitro. I. Tuberomammillary and lateral mammillary neurons

1. The electrophysiological properties of the tuberomammillary and lateral mammillary neurons in the guinea pig mammillary body were studied using an in vitro brain slice preparation. 2. Tuberomammillary (n = 79) neurons were recorded mainly ventral to the lateral mammillary body as well as ventromedially to the fornix within the rostral part of the medial mammillary nucleus. Intracellular staining with horseradish peroxidase (n = 9) and Lucifer yellow (n = 3) revealed that these cells have several thick, long, spiny dendrites emerging from large (20-35 microns) fusiform somata. 3. Most tuberomammillary neurons (66%) fired spontaneously at a relatively low frequency (0.5-10 Hz) at the resting membrane potential. The action potentials were broad (2.3 ms) with a prominent Ca(2+)-dependent shoulder on the falling phase. Deep (17.8 mV), long-lasting spike afterhyperpolarizations were largely Ca(2+)-independent. 4. All tuberomammillary neurons recorded displayed pronounced delayed firing when the cells were activated from a potential negative to the resting level. The cells also displayed a delayed return to the baseline at the break of hyperpolarizing pulses applied from a membrane potential level close to firing threshold. Analysis of the voltage- and time dependence of this delayed rectification suggested the presence of a transient outward current similar to the A current (IA). These were not completely blocked by high concentrations of 4-aminopyridine, whereas the delayed onset of firing was always abolished when voltage-dependent Ca2+ conductances were blocked by superfusion with Cd2+. 5. Tuberomammillary neurons also displayed inward rectification in the hyperpolarizing and, primarily, depolarizing range. Block of voltage-gated Na(+)-dependent conductances with tetrodotoxin (TTX) selectively abolished inward rectification in the depolarizing range, indicating the presence of a persistent low-threshold sodium-dependent conductance (gNap). In fact, persistent TTX-sensitive, plateau potentials were always elicited following Ca2+ block with Cd2+ when K+ currents were reduced by superfusion with tetraethylammonium. 6. The gNap in tuberomammillary neurons may subserve the pacemaker current underlying the spontaneous firing of these cells. The large-amplitude spike afterhyperpolarization of these neurons sets the availability of the transient outward rectifier, which, in conjunction with the pacemaker current, establishes the rate at which membrane potential approaches spike threshold. 7. Repetitive firing elicited by direct depolarization enhanced the spike shoulder of tuberomammillary neurons. Spike trains were followed by a Ca(2+)-dependent, apamine-sensitive, slow afterhyperpolarization. 8. Lateral mammillary neurons were morphologically and electrophysiologically different from tuberomammillary neurons. All lateral mammillary neurons neurons recorded (n = 44) were silent at rest (-60 mV).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS).

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2005

Assessment of Microbiologically Influenced Corrosion Potential in the International Space Station Internal Active Thermal Control System Heat Exchanger Materials: A 6-Momths Study

The fluid in the Internal Active Thermal Control System (IATCS) of the International Space Station (ISS) is water based. The fluid in the ISS Laboratory Module and Node 1 initially contained a mix of water, phosphate (corrosion control), borate (pH buffer), and silver sulfate (Ag2SO4) (microbial control) at a pH of 9.5+/-0.5. Over time, the chemistry of the fluid changed. Fluid changes included a pH drop from 9.5 to 8.3 due to diffusion of carbon dioxide (CO2) through Teflon(reistered Trademark) (DuPont) hoses, increases in dissolved nickel (Ni) levels, deposition of silver (Ag) to metal surfaces, and precipitation of the phosphate (PO4) as nickel phosphate (NiPO4). The drop in pH and unavailability of a antimicrobial has provided an environment conducive to microbial growth. Microbial levels in the fluid have increased from >10 colony-forming units (CFUs)/100 ml to 10(exp 6) CFUs/100 ml. The heat exchangers in the IATCS loops are considered the weakest point in the loop because of the material thickness (=7 mil). It is made of a Ni-based braze filler/CRES 347. Results of a preliminary test performed at Hamilton Sundstrand indicated the possibility of pitting on this material at locations where Ag deposits were found. Later, tests have confirmed that chemical corrosion of the materials is a concern for this system. Accumulation of micro-organisms on surfaces (biofilm) can also result in material degradation and can amplify the damage caused by the chemical corrosion, known as microbiologically influenced corrosion (MIC). This paper will discuss the results of a 6-mo test performed to characterize and quantify the damage from microbial accumulation on the surface of the ISS/ATCS heat exchanger materials. The test was designed to quantify the damage to the materials under worst-case conditions with and without micro-organisms present at pH 8.3 and 9.5.

Roman, Monsi C.↗

NASA NTRS2007

ISRU at a Lunar Outpost: Implementation and Opportunities for Partnerships and Commercial Development

The NASA Lunar Architecture Team (LAT), which was commissioned to help answer the question "how" will humans return to the Moon, and the Synthesis Team and the recently released Global Exploration Strategy, which was commissioned to help answer the question "why" will humans return to the Moon and go on to Mars have identified the ability to extract and use in-situ resources as important to extending human frontiers, reduce dependence on Earth, and further economic and commercial expansion into space. The extraction and processing of space resources into useful products, known as In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU), can have a substantial impact on mission and architecture concepts. In particular, the ability to make propellants, life support consumables, and fuel cell reagents can significantly reduce the cost, mass, and risk of sustained human activities beyond Earth. Potential lunar resources include solar wind implanted volatiles, vast quantities of metal and mineral oxides, possible water/ice at the poles, abundant solar energy, regions of permanent light and darkness, the vacuum of space itself, and even scavenging leftover descent propellants and/or trash and waste from human crew activities. Suitable processing can transform these raw resources into useful materials and products. The establishment of a human lunar Outpost, as proposed by NASA at the 2nd Space Exploration Conference in Houston in December 2006, opens up the possibility for the first time of breaking our reliance on Earth supplied consumables and learn to "live off the land". The ISRU phasing and capability incorporation strategy developed during LAT Phase I & II is based on the premise that while ISRU is a critical capability and key to successful implementation of the US Vision for Space Exploration, it is also an unproven capability for human lunar exploration and can not be put in the critical path of architecture success until it has been proven. Therefore, ISRU needs to take incremental steps toward the desired end state. However, at the same time, the lunar architecture needs to be open enough to take advantage of ISRU when proven available.

Sanders, Gerald B.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Musculoskeletal-induced Nucleation in Altitude Decompression Sickness

Pollock, N. W.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Ambulation Increases Decompression Sickness in Spacewalk Simulations

Musculoskeletal activity has the potential to both improve and compromise decompression safety. Exercise enhances inert gas elimination during oxygen breathing prior to decompression (prebreathe), but it may also promote bubble nuclei formation (nucleation), which can lead to gas phase separation and bubble growth and increase the risk of decompression sickness (DCS). The timing, pattern and intensity of musculoskeletal activity and the level of tissue supersaturation may be critical to the net effect. Understanding the relationships is important to evaluate exercise prebreathe protocols and quantify decompression risk in gravity and microgravity environments. Data gathered during NASA's Prebreathe Reduction Program (PRP) studies combined oxygen prebreathe and exercise followed by low pressure (4.3 psi; altitude equivalent of 30,300 ft [9,235 m]) microgravity simulation to produce two protocols used by astronauts preparing for extravehicular activity. Both the Phase II/CEVIS (cycle ergometer vibration isolation system) and ISLE (in-suit light exercise) trials eliminated ambulation to more closely simulate the microgravity environment. The CEVIS results (35 male, 10 female) serve as control data for this NASA/Duke study to investigate the influence of ambulation exercise on bubble formation and the subsequent risk of DCS. METHODS Four experiments will replicate the CEVIS exercise-enhanced oxygen prebreathe protocol, each with a different exception. The first of these is currently underway. Experiment 1 - Subjects complete controlled ambulation (walking in place with fixed cadence and step height) during both preflight and at 4.3 psi instead of remaining nonambulatory throughout. Experiment 2 - Subjects remain non-ambulatory during the preflight period and ambulatory at 4.3 psi. Experiment 3 - Subjects ambulate during the preflight period and remain non-ambulatory at 4.3 psi. Experiment 4 - The order of heavy and light exercise employed in the CEVIS protocol is reversed, with the light exercise occurring first (subjects remain non-ambulatory throughout). Decompression stress is assessed with non-invasive ultrasound during each of 14 epochs of a 4 hour simulated spacewalk at 4.3 psi; aural Doppler is used to monitor bubbles (Spencer grade 0-IV scale) passing through the pulmonary artery, and two-dimensional echocardiographic imaging is used to look for left ventricular gas emboli (LVGE; the presence of which is a test termination criterion). Venous blood is collected at baseline and twice following repressurization to determine if the decompression stress is correlated with microparticles (cell fragments) accumulation. The plan is to test 25-50 subjects in each experiment. Fisher Exact Tests (one-tailed) are used to compare test and control groups. Trials are suspended when the DCS or grade IV VGE observations reach 70% confidence of DCS risk >15% and grade IV VGE risk >20%. RESULTS Experiment 1 was concluded with 20 complete trials (15 male, 5 female) since the statistical outcome would not change with five additional trials. The observed DCS was significantly greater in Experiment 1 than in CEVIS trials (4/20 [20%] vs. 0/45 [0%], respectively, p=0.007), as was the frequency of peak grade IV VGE (6/21 [29%; including one additional subject that presented grade IV VGE but whose trial was ended before completion when LVGE were observed] vs. 3/45 [7%], respectively, p=0.024). Experiment 3 trials are now underway, with 11 trials completed (10 male, 1 female). Preliminary results indicate no difference in observed DCS between Experiment 3 and CEVIS trials (1/11 [9%] vs. 0/45 [0%], respectively, p=0.196), or between Experiment 3 and Experiment 1 trials (p=0.405). The frequency of peak grade IV VGE in Experiment 3 (2/11 [18%]) did not differ from CEVIS or Experiment 1 trials (p=0.251 and p=0.425, respectively). Microparticle patterns are widely variable and still under analysis. DISCUSSION The results of the Experiment 1 trials support the thesis that decompression stress is increased by ambulation exercise, given the higher incidence of DCS and grade IV VGE when compared to the non-ambulatory PRP CEVIS trials. Experiment 3 trials are incomplete, but suggest that the effect of ambulation during ground level preflight oxygen breathing alone, when subjects are undersaturated with inert gas, may not differ in risk from ambulation at both preflight and spacesuit pressures, the latter when subjects are supersaturated with inert gas. Further trials are needed to confirm the relative effects of ambulation in undersaturated vs. supersaturated states and to determine whether light exercise facilitates the removal of heavy exercise-induced nucleation (Experiment 4).

Pollock, N. W.↗

NASA NTRS1997

The Kinematics of Treadmill Locomotion in Space

Locomotion on a treadmill in 0 G will probably remain a centerpiece of NASA's exercise countermeasures programme. This form of physical activity has the potential to cause large bone and muscle forces as well as loading during a period of continuous treadmill exercise. A critical concern is the provision of a treadmill which can approximate 1 G performance in space. At this point, no adequate objective measurements of in-flight treadmill kinetics or of the human response to this activity have been made. Interpretation of the results obtained in the present study is limited by the following: (1) bungee tensions were not measured; (2) ground reaction forces were not measured in parallel with the kinematic measurements; and (3) the instrumentation used to film the astronauts could itself have been affected by microgravity. Despite these shortcomings, what is apparent is that exercise during NASA missions STS 7 and STS 8 resulted in leg motions that were similar to those found during 1 G locomotion on an inclined passive treadmill and on an active treadmill at an even steeper grade. In addition, it was apparent that the majority of the loads were transmitted through the forefoot, and one can surmise that this style of running would result in physiologically significant tensions in the calf musculature and resultant ankle compressive loading. Further speculation regarding limb loading is complicated by the fact that varying amounts of force are transmitted through (1) the treadmill handle and (2) bungee cords that act as a tether. New generations of treadmills are being manufactured that could provide I important information for planners of long-duration space missions. If these types of treadmill are flown on future missions, it will be possible to control bungee tensions more precisely, control for grade and speed, and, most importantly, provide data on the rates and magnitudes of limb loading. These data could then be incorporated into biomechanical models of the lower limb to more fully understand mechanisms of load transmission from distal to proximal structures and to optimize in-flight exercise protocols in such a way that muscle and bone loss could be reduced.

Thornton, W. E.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Extraterrestrial applications of solar optics for interior illumination

Solar optics is a terrestrial technology that has potential extraterrestrial applications. Active solar optics (ASO) and passive solar optics (PSO) are two approaches to the transmission of sunlight to remote interior spaces. Active solar optics is most appropriate for task illumination, while PSO is most appropriate for general illumination. Research into solar optics, motivated by energy conservation, has produced lightweight and low-cost materials, products that have applications to NASA's Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) program and its lunar base studies. Specifically, prism light guides have great potential in these contexts. Several applications of solar optics to lunar base concepts are illustrated.

Eijadi, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Medical Support for ISS Crewmember Training in Star City, Russia

Medical support of spaceflight training operations across international lines is a unique circumstance with potential applications to other aerospace medicine support scenarios. KBRwyle's Star City Medical Support Group (SCMSG) has fulfilled this role since the Mir-Shuttle era, with extensive experience and updates to share with the greater AsMA community. OVERVIEW: The current Soyuz training flow for assigned ISS crewmembers takes place in Star City, Russia. Soyuz training flow involves numerous activities that pose potential physical and occupational risks to crewmembers, including centrifuge runs and pressurized suit simulations at ambient and hypobaric pressures. In addition, Star City is a relatively remote location in a host nation with variable access to reliable, Western-standard medical care. For these reasons, NASA's Human Health & Performance contract allocates full-time physician support to assigned ISS crewmembers training in Star City. The Star City physician also treats minor injuries and illnesses as needed for both long- and short-term NASA support personnel traveling in the area, while working to develop and maintain relationships with local health care resources in the event of more serious medical issues that cannot be treated on-site. The specifics of this unique scope of practice will be discussed. SIGNIFICANCE: ISS crewmembers training in Star City are at potential physical and occupational risk of trauma or dysbarism during nominal Soyuz training flow, requiring medical support from an on-duty aerospace medicine specialist. This support maintains human health and performance by preserving crewmember safety and well-being for mission success; sharing information regarding this operational model may contribute to advances in other areas of international, military, and civilian operational aerospace medicine.

Chough, Natacha↗

NASA NTRS2017

Medical Support for ISS Crewmember Training in Star City, Russia

Chough, Natacha↗

NASA NTRS1998

Effects of starvation on physiological activity and chlorine disinfection resistance in Escherichia coli O157:H7

Escherichia coli O157:H7 can persist for days to weeks in microcosms simulating natural conditions. In this study, we used a suite of fluorescent, in situ stains and probes to assess the influence of starvation on physiological activity based on membrane potential (rhodamine 123 assay), membrane integrity (LIVE/DEAD BacLight kit), respiratory activity (5-cyano-2,3-di-4-tolyl-tetrazolium chloride assay), intracellular esterase activity (ScanRDI assay), and 16S rRNA content. Growth-dependent assays were also used to assess substrate responsiveness (direct viable count [DVC] assay), ATP activity (MicroStar assay), and culturability (R2A agar assay). In addition, resistance to chlorine disinfection was assessed. After 14 days of starvation, the DVC values decreased, while the values in all other assays remained relatively constant and equivalent to each other. Chlorine resistance progressively increased through the starvation period. After 29 days of starvation, there was no significant difference in chlorine resistance between control cultures that had not been exposed to the disinfectant and cultures that had been exposed. This study demonstrates that E. coli O157:H7 adapts to starvation conditions by developing a chlorine resistance phenotype.

NASA Discipline Environmental Health↗

NASA NTRS2022

Sampling of Jezero Crater Máaz Formation By Mars 2020 Perseverance Rover

Collection of samples that could be returned to Earth from the floor of Jezero crater is a major goal of the Mars 2020 mission. Laboratory analyses of these will expand exploration of Jezero, a Noachian crater on Mars characterized by a delta–lake system with high potential for habitability. The samples will also be used to test current ideas about the early planetary evolution of Mars. The Perseverance rover has collected samples from two members of the Máaz formation, mapped in orbital images as the Crater floor fractured rough unit by [1]. Type localities of the Roubion and Rochette members have been targeted and abraded prior to sample collection. Here we summarize these sampling activities and the potential of sampling the Chal member of Máaz. A similar summary for samples collected from the Séítah formation is described in Hickman-Lewis et al. (this meeting).

Mars 2020↗

NASA NTRS1993

Path planning for robotic truss assembly

A new Potential Fields approach to the robotic path planning problem is proposed and implemented. Our approach, which is based on one originally proposed by Munger, computes an incremental joint vector based upon attraction to a goal and repulsion from obstacles. By repetitively adding and computing these 'steps', it is hoped (but not guaranteed) that the robot will reach its goal. An attractive force exerted by the goal is found by solving for the the minimum norm solution to the linear Jacobian equation. A repulsive force between obstacles and the robot's links is used to avoid collisions. Its magnitude is inversely proportional to the distance. Together, these forces make the goal the global minimum potential point, but local minima can stop the robot from ever reaching that point. Our approach improves on a basic, potential field paradigm developed by Munger by using an active, adaptive field - what we will call a 'flexible' potential field. Active fields are stronger when objects move towards one another and weaker when they move apart. An adaptive field's strength is individually tailored to be just strong enough to avoid any collision. In addition to the local planner, a global planning algorithm helps the planner to avoid local field minima by providing subgoals. These subgoals are based on the obstacles which caused the local planner to fail. A best-first search algorithm A* is used for graph search.

Sanderson, Arthur C.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Options for Staging Orbits in Cis-Lunar Space

NASA has been studying options to conduct missions beyond Low Earth Orbit, but within the Earth-Moon system, in preparation for deep space exploration including human missions to Mars. Referred to as the Proving Ground, this arena of exploration activities will enable the development of human spaceflight systems and operations to satisfy future exploration objectives beyond the cis-lunar environment. One option being considered includes the deployment of a habitable element or elements, which could be used as a central location for aggregation of supplies and resources for human missions in cis-lunar space and beyond. Characterizing candidate orbit locations for this asset and the impacts on system design and mission operations is important in the overall assessment of the options being considered. The orbits described in this paper were initially selected by taking advantage of previous studies conducted by NASA and the work of other authors. In this paper orbits are assessed for their relative attractiveness based on various factors. First, a set of constraints related to the capability of the combined Orion and SLS system to deliver humans and cargo to and from the orbit are evaluated. Second, the ability to support potential lunar surface activities is considered. Finally, deployed assets intended to spend multiple years in the Proving Ground would ideally require minimal station keeping costs to reduce the mass budget allocated to this function. Additional mission design drivers include potential for uninterrupted communication with deployed assets, thermal, communications, and other operational implications. The results of the characterization and evaluation of the selected orbits indicate a Near Rectilinear Orbit (NRO) is an attractive candidate as an aggregation point or staging location for operations. In this paper, the NRO is further described in terms which balance a number of key attributes that favor a variety of mission classes to meet multiple, sometimes competing, constraints.

Whitley, Ryan↗

NASA NTRS1999

Hybrid Active-Passive Systems for Control of Aircraft Interior Noise

Previous work has demonstrated the large potential for hybrid active-passive systems for attenuating interior noise in aircraft fuselages. The main advantage of an active-passive system is, by utilizing the natural dynamics of the actuator system, the control actuator power and weight is markedly reduced and stability/robustness is enhanced. Three different active-passive approaches were studied in the past year. The first technique utilizes multiple tunable vibration absorbers (ATVA) for reducing narrow band sound radiated from panels and transmitted through fuselage structures. The focus is on reducing interior noise due to propeller or turbo fan harmonic excitation. Two types of tunable vibration absorbers were investigated; a solid state system based upon a piezoelectric mechanical exciter and an electromechanical system based upon a Motran shaker. Both of these systems utilize a mass-spring dynamic effect to maximize tile output force near resonance of the shaker system and so can also be used as vibration absorbers. The dynamic properties of the absorbers (i.e. resonance frequency) were modified using a feedback signal from an accelerometer mounted on the active mass, passed through a compensator and fed into the drive component of the shaker system (piezoelectric element or voice coil respectively). The feedback loop consisted of a two coefficient FIR filter, implemented on a DSP, where the input is acceleration of tile ATVA mass and the output is a force acting in parallel with the stiffness of the absorber. By separating the feedback signal into real and imaginary components, the effective natural frequency and damping of the ATVA can be altered independently. This approach gave control of the resonance frequencies while also allowing the simultaneous removal of damping from the ATVA, thus increasing the ease of controllability and effectiveness. In order to obtain a "tuned" vibration absorber the chosen resonant frequency was set to the excitation frequency. In order to minimize sound radiation a gradient descent algorithm was developed which globally adapted the resonance frequencies of multiple ATVA's while minimizing a cost based upon the radiated sound power or sound energy obtained from an array of microphones.

Fuller, Chris R.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Technology requirements for advanced earth-orbital transportation systems, dual-mode propulsion

The application of dual-mode propulsion concepts to fully reusable single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) vehicles is discussed. Dual-mode propulsion uses main rocket engines that consume hydrocarbon fuels as well as liquid hydrogen fuel. Liquid oxygen is used as the oxidizer. These engine concepts were integrated into transportation vehicle designs capable of vertical takeoff, delivering a payload to earth orbit, and return to earth with a horizontal landing. Benefits of these vehicles were assessed and compared with vehicles using single-mode propulsion (liquid hydrogen and oxygen engines). Technology requirements for such advanced transportation systems were identified. Figures of merit, including life-cycle cost savings and research costs, were derived for dual-mode technology programs, and were used for assessments of potential benefits of proposed technology activities. Dual-mode propulsion concepts display potential for significant cost and performance benefits when applied to SSTO vehicles.

Haefeli, R. C.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Aeromechanical Evaluation of Smart-Twisting Active Rotor

An investigation of Smart-Twisting Active Rotor (STAR) was made to assess potential benefits of the current active twist rotor concept for performance improvement, vibration reduction, and noise alleviation. The STAR rotor is a 40% Mach-scaled, Bo105 rotor with an articulated flap-lag hinge at 3.5%R and no pre-cone. The 0-5 per rev active twist harmonic inputs were applied for various flight conditions including hover, descent, moderate to high speed level flights, and slowed rotor high advance ratio. For the analysis, the STAR partners used multiple codes including CAMRAD II, S4, HOST, rFlow3D, elsA, and their associated software. At the high thrust level in hover, the 0 per rev active twist with 80% amplitude increased figure of merit (FM) by 0.01-0.02 relative to the baseline. In descent, the largest BVI noise reduction was on the order of 2 to 5 dB at the 3 per rev active twist. In the high speed case (mu = 0.35), the 2 per rev actuation was found to be the most effective in achieving a power reduction as well as a vibration reduction. At the 2 per rev active twist, total power was reduced by 0.65% at the 60 deg active twist phase, and vibration was reduced by 47.6% at the 45 deg active twist phase. The use of the 2 per rev active twist appears effective for vibration reduction. In the high advance ratio case (mu = 0.70), the 0 per rev actuation appeared to have negligible impact on performance improvement. In summary, computational simulations successfully demonstrated that the current active twist concept provided a significant reduction of the maximum BVI noise in descent, a significant reduction of the vibration in the high speed case, a small improvement on rotor performance in hover, and a negligible impact on rotor performance in forward flight.

Lim, Joon W.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Flow Control for Enhanced Aileron Effectiveness on a Commercial Aircraft

Active flow control was applied to the ailerons of a representative future short/medium-range twin-engine airplane to improve aerodynamic performance during high-lift operations. The study is aimed at reduced drag and enhanced lift over the range of practical angles of attack, including stall. These benefits translate to airplane performance improvements, such as longer range or larger payload. Various flow control techniques were explored using Computational Fluid Dynamics and the aerodynamic performance enhancements were benchmarked against the baseline configuration. The computational analyses are used to quantify aerodynamic benefits, as well as the input required for actuation. The results were used in a system integration study for identifying potential practical implementations, which are described in a companion paper. Combined with the integration analysis, the objective of this project is to identify the most promising flow control candidates that potentially provide material net airplane level enhancements using onboard fluidic sources. The current study indicates that up to 5% net improvement in L/D at takeoff is potentially achievable using active flow control on the aileron, after accounting for factors of system integration.

CFD↗

NASA NTRS2010

Advances in Landslide Hazard Forecasting: Evaluation of Global and Regional Modeling Approach

A prototype global satellite-based landslide hazard algorithm has been developed to identify areas that exhibit a high potential for landslide activity by combining a calculation of landslide susceptibility with satellite-derived rainfall estimates. A recent evaluation of this algorithm framework found that while this tool represents an important first step in larger-scale landslide forecasting efforts, it requires several modifications before it can be fully realized as an operational tool. The evaluation finds that the landslide forecasting may be more feasible at a regional scale. This study draws upon a prior work's recommendations to develop a new approach for considering landslide susceptibility and forecasting at the regional scale. This case study uses a database of landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in 1998 over four countries in Central America: Guatemala, Honduras, EI Salvador and Nicaragua. A regional susceptibility map is calculated from satellite and surface datasets using a statistical methodology. The susceptibility map is tested with a regional rainfall intensity-duration triggering relationship and results are compared to global algorithm framework for the Hurricane Mitch event. The statistical results suggest that this regional investigation provides one plausible way to approach some of the data and resolution issues identified in the global assessment, providing more realistic landslide forecasts for this case study. Evaluation of landslide hazards for this extreme event helps to identify several potential improvements of the algorithm framework, but also highlights several remaining challenges for the algorithm assessment, transferability and performance accuracy. Evaluation challenges include representation errors from comparing susceptibility maps of different spatial resolutions, biases in event-based landslide inventory data, and limited nonlandslide event data for more comprehensive evaluation. Additional factors that may improve algorithm performance accuracy include incorporating additional triggering factors such as tectonic activity, anthropogenic impacts and soil moisture into the algorithm calculation. Despite these limitations, the methodology presented in this regional evaluation is both straightforward to calculate and easy to interpret, making results transferable between regions and allowing findings to be placed within an inter-comparison framework. The regional algorithm scenario represents an important step in advancing regional and global-scale landslide hazard assessment and forecasting.

Kirschbaum, Dalia B.↗