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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2026

A Multi-Tier Autonomous Aerial Architecture for Wildfire Detection, Characterization, and Communication in Infrastructure-Denied Environments

Wildfire response depends on how fast an ignition can be confirmed and located, especially in remote regions where ground-based communication and monitoring may be limited. Geostationary sensors provide frequent observations but at kilometer-scale resolution, which is too coarse to resolve small fires in remote terrain. Ground camera networks require sightlines and infrastructure that back-country areas lack. To address these limitations, this work proposes a Multi-Tier Autonomous Wildfire Intelligence System that combines wide-area monitoring with targeted, high-resolution sensing. A solar-powered high-altitude long endurance (HALE) platform operating at approximately 60,000 ft provides persistent wide-area thermal and optical surveillance, running onboard edge inference to screen candidate ignitions and reduce false positives and downlink bandwidth. When a candidate ignition is detected, low-altitude uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) can be deployed to conduct localized observations, including high-resolution imaging and atmospheric measurements such as wind and plume observation. By combining persistent detection with local sensing, the proposed architecture is designed to provide first responders with timely, high-resolution information about fire location and behavior to aid in emergency decision making.

Wildfire management, UAS, drones↗

DOE OSTI2025

Energy storage planning for enhanced resilience of power systems against wildfires and heatwaves

Extreme weather events pose significant risks to power grid stability due to their severe consequences and potential for widespread failures. Energy storage systems hold great potential for enhancing grid resilience against such events by providing reliable power during peak demand periods. However, accurately quantifying the size, location, and investment costs of new energy storage assets is a complex task, as energy storage planning decisions depend on the investment choices of other generation technologies and the integration of new transmission projects. Here, this paper presents a novel capacity expansion planning framework that simultaneously optimizes investments in energy storage, generation, and transmission, determining their optimal size, location, and type, while incorporating extreme weather events into long-term planning. More specifically, our stress-event-informed planning framework integrates the impact of heatwaves and wildfires into the planning process, identifying least-cost investment solutions that comply with policy goals and enhance grid resilience. The proposed framework employs machine-learning-based modeling to project heatwave-induced loads and performance-based risk assessment to evaluate wildfire-driven transmission line derates. Using industry-standard datasets to accurately represent the transmission topology of the Western Interconnection (WI) system, the proposed framework is applied to the WI 40-zone system, with investment decisions reported for the years 2030, 2035, and 2040. Simulation results reveal that with just a 10% increase in investment costs, resilience against extreme events can be significantly improved, with investment decisions heavily favoring energy storage, particularly 4-hour energy storage systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Aircraft Measurements from a U.S. Western Wildfire Demonstrating Day and Night Differences in the Chemical Composition and Optical Properties of Biomass Burning Aerosols and Their Atmospheric Evolution

The composition and transformations of biomass burning aerosols (BBA) have been measured onboard the NOAA Twin Otter research aircraft during the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality field study. Here, we analyze real-time aerosol mass spectrometry measurements across three flights during the afternoon, late afternoon, and night of August 28, 2019, for one midsized wildfire. Analysis of several metrics showed that the aerosol composition and optical properties varied depending on the burning conditions at the fire zone and the time of day the BBA was emitted, with substantial variations in the available sunlight. The total aerosol mass loadings were dominated by organic components with a much smaller contribution from inorganic species. A gradual buildup of organic material was observed during the afternoon as the plume aged, indicating the condensation of photochemically formed low-volatility oxidized organic compounds. Highly hygroscopic ammonium nitrate was the main inorganic component, suggesting potential water content in BBA particles and the likelihood of their aqueous-phase reactivity. Depletions of particle-phase NO 3 – and Cl – relative to carbon monoxide were observed in the late afternoon and nighttime plumes, respectively, aligning with known gas-particle partitioning thermodynamics and the heterogeneous chemistry of dissolved nitrate and chloride. The wavelength-dependent light absorption by aerosol species was higher for the plume sampled at night and showed no significant changes with plume age, despite observed trends in composition and mass downwind. These differences in particle composition and optical properties demonstrate that the processes involved in BBA aging are not uniform for the same wildfire over the course of the day and depend highly on when the BBA was emitted, as well as the burning phase at the emissions source.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced light absorption for solid-state brown carbon from wildfires due to organic and water coatings

Abstract Wildfires emit solid-state strongly absorptive brown carbon (solid S-BrC, commonly known as tar ball), critical to Earth’s radiation budget and climate, but their highly variable light absorption properties are typically not accounted for in climate models. Here, we show that from a Pacific Northwest wildfire, over 90% of particles are solid S-BrC with a mean refractive index of 1.49 + 0.056 i at 550 nm. Model sensitivity studies show refractive index variation can cause a ~200% difference in regional absorption aerosol optical depth. We show that ~50% of solid S-BrC particles from this sample uptake water above 97% relative humidity. We hypothesize these results from a hygroscopic organic coating, potentially facilitating solid S-BrC as nuclei for cloud droplets. This water uptake doubles absorption at 550 nm and the organic coating on solid S-BrC can lead to even higher absorption enhancements than water. Incorporating solid S-BrC and water interactions should improve Earth’s radiation budget predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

APSO-enhanced algebraic derivative estimation approach for real-time traffic flow prediction on critical road sections during wildfire evacuation

In rapid-onset disaster scenarios such as wildfires, evacuation traffic often significantly deviates from historical patterns, rendering conventional data-driven forecasting methods less effective. To address this challenge, we propose an improved algebraic derivative estimation (ADE) incorporating particle swarm optimization (PSO) for real-time traffic flow prediction. Our approach dynamically adjusts the ADE prediction time window at each step by minimizing a cost function based on the mean and variance of accumulated forecasting errors within the window, thereby balancing bias and variability. We evaluate the method using traffic data from the January 2025 California wildfires, focusing on key road segments critical for large-scale evacuations. The results demonstrate that our approach surpasses established machine learning and deep learning models—XGBoost, LSTM, and GRU—in predictive accuracy and maintains high computational efficiency. Notably, the proposed method eliminates the need for offline model training. Moreover, rapid PSO-based tuning enables real-time deployment, which provides a crucial advantage in scenarios where evacuation timings and road closures change dynamically. In conclusion, these findings highlight the benefits of the PSO-enhanced ADE framework for emergency traffic management, where rapid, data-sparse forecasts are essential for effective evacuation planning.

Algebraic derivative estimation↗

DOE OSTI2024

A weather pattern responsible for increasing wildfires in the western United States

Abstract The western United States (U.S.) has been experiencing more severe wildfires, in part due to climate change, but the underlying synoptic patterns and their modulation in driving fire weather is unclear. Here we investigated the relationship between weather regimes (WRs) and fire weather indices, specifically vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index. By identifying five singular WRs using k-means clustering, we found that a particular regime (WR-2), one characterized by a distinct tripolar wave train pattern over the continental U.S., has exhibited an increased frequency since 1980. The ascribed WR-2 regime was found to be mainly responsible for rising trends in the fire weather indices, especially VPD. Further, the average fire indices of the WR-2 regime played a more important role than the frequency in shaping the rising trends in the fire weather indices. The increased frequency of the WR-2 WR was mainly attributed to anthropogenic forcing and, the year-to-year variation of the frequency was associated with sea surface temperature anomalies over the subtropical eastern Pacific. Human-induced climate change might have furthered the exacerbation of wildfire danger in the western U.S. by modulating the behaviors of WRs and fire weather indices.

Zhang, Wei (ORCID:0000000221698749)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ponderosa pine hydraulic stress predicts more extreme wildfire behavior under future conditions in Bandelier National Monument, New Mexico

Background Live fuel moisture contributes to wildfire spread and reflects plant stress and physiological traits. The anticipated change in live fuel moisture under future conditions is likely non-linear, owing to physiological plant thresholds in water hydraulics. We constructed a mechanistic model of live fuel moisture’s response to water stress to understand the impact of future climate on live fuel moisture. We first gathered data on plant physiology and live fuel moisture for Pinus ponderosa at Bandelier National Monument, NM, USA, and modeled their relationship. We then parameterized a mechanistic plant hydrodynamics model (FATES-HYDRO) to simulate changes in plant stress and a statistical model to simulate the resulting impact on live fuel moisture. We then simulated FATES-HYDRO under future climate anomalies (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5: 2080–2100) to understand the change in plant stress and estimate its impact on live fuel moisture. Results We found that the number of days below crucial thresholds of live fuel moisture (100% and 79%) increased from contemporary levels (< 100%: 72 days, < 79%: 1.4 days) under SSP2-4.5 (< 100%: 185 days, < 79%: 10.2 day) and increased exponentially under SSP5-8.5 (< 100%: 215 days, < 79%: 65 days). We found that gross primary productivity decreased under both future climate scenarios (contemporary: 336 g C m −2 , SSP2-4.5: 203 g C m −2 , SSP5-8.5: 243 g C m −2 ); however, spring productivity increased under SSP5-8.5, potentially altering fuel loading. We additionally see a potentially lethal loss of conductivity in hydraulic P. ponderosa under SSP5-8.5. Conclusions The overall increase in plant water stress (as represented by loss of hydraulic conductivity and leaf water potential) and lower live fuel moisture appear to be driven by reduced precipitation during late summer monsoons typical of the region, extending the fire season later in the year. We predict increasing variability in the P. ponderosa wildfire regime under both climate projections driven by changing productivity, rising mortality, and an overall decrease in live fuel moisture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-Fwf Flagstaff - Wildfire

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Fwf Flagstaff - Wildfire. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Fwf Flagstaff - Wildfire produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Ponderosa pine forest subject to high severity stand replacing wild fire in 1996. Project webpage http://nau.edu/CEFNS/Forestry/Research/Carbon-Flux/Sites/.

Dore, Sabina↗

DOE OSTI2024

Lahaina Wildfire Study: Impacts of Post-Disaster Housing Programs on Maui’s Economy

In August 2023, wildfires destroyed more than 4,000 housing units in Maui County, Hawaiʻi, primarily in the town of Lahaina. One hundred and two people were killed, making it the deadliest wildfire in the United States in more than a century.1 The fire displaced 13,000 people; 5,000 found new housing without government assistance, and 8,000 applied for assistance.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

State Spotlight on Resilience: The Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission’s Wildfire Mitigation Plans

Wildfires present a significant risk to critical infrastructure, endangering energy systems by damaging transmission lines and imposing a variety of costs on utilities and their customers. Wildfires have increased nationally in both extent and intensity as vegetation conditions become drier and wind patterns become more turbulent. Aging infrastructure may also cause transmission lines to ignite vegetation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1990

Ignition of global wildfires at the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary

The recent discovery of an apparently global soot layer at the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary indicates that global wildfires were somehow ignited by the impact of a comet or asteroid. It is shown here that the thermal radiation produced by the ballistic reentry of ejecta condensed from the vapor plume of the impact could have increased the global radiation flux by factors of 50 to 150 times the solar input for periods ranging from one to several hours. This great increase in thermal radiation may have been responsible for the ignition of global wildfires, as well as having deleterious effects on unprotected animal life.

Melosh, H. J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Improvement in detection of small wildfires

Detecting and imaging small wildfires with an Airborne Scanner is done against generally high background levels. The Airborne Scanner System used is a two-channel thermal IR scanner, with one channel selected for imaging the terrain and the other channel sensitive to hotter targets. If a relationship can be determined between the two channels that quantifies the background signal for hotter targets, then an algorithm can be determined that removes the background signal in that channel leaving only the fire signal. The relationship can be determined anywhere between various points in the signal processing of the radiometric data from the radiometric input to the quantized output of the system. As long as only linear operations are performed on the signal, the relationship will only depend on the system gain and offsets within the range of interest. The algorithm can be implemented either by using a look-up table or performing the calculation in the system computer. The current presentation will describe the algorithm, its derivation, and its implementation in the Firefly Wildfire Detection System by means of an off-the-shelf commercial scanner. Improvement over the previous algorithm used and the margin gained for improving the imaging of the terrain will be demonstrated.

Sleigh, William J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Monitoring of wildfires in boreal forests using large area AVHRR NDVI composite image data

Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) composite image data, produced from AVHRR data collected in 1990, were evaluated for locating and mapping the areal extent of wildfires in the boreal forests of Alaska during that year. A technique was developed to map forest fire boundaries by subtracting a late-summer AVHRR NDVI image from an early summer scene. The locations and boundaries of wildfires within the interior region of Alaska were obtained from the Alaska Fire Service, and compared to the AVHRR-derived fire-boundary map. It was found that AVHRR detected 89.5 percent of all fires with sizes greater than 2000 ha with no false alarms and that, for most cases, the general shape of the fire boundary detected by AVHRR matched those mapped by field observers. However, the total area contained within the fire boundaries mapped by AVHRR were only 61 percent of those mapped by the field observers. However, the AVHRR data used in this study did not span the entire time period during which fires occurred, and it is believed the areal estimates could be improved significantly if an expanded AVHRR data set were used.

Kasischke, Eric S.↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Search for Soot from Global Wildfires in Central Pacific Cretaceous-Tertiary Boundary and Other Extinction and Impact Horizon Sediments

Hypotheses of global wildfires following the Cretaceous-Tertiary (KT) boundary impact are supported by high concentrations of elemental carbon (3.6 mg cm-3) and soot (1.8 mg cm-2) in DSDP Site 465, which was located several thousand kilometers from potential continental sources at 65 Ma. Soot is not preserved at four other central Pacific KT localities, but this is attributed to loss during oxic diagenesis. We find no evidence for wildfires related to major impacts in the late Eocene or to Ir anomalies and extinctions in the late Cenomanian.

Wolbach, Wendy S.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Wildfires Dynamics in Mid-Siberian Larch Dominated Communities

The longterm wildfire dynamics, including fire return interval (FRI), in Siberian larch communities were examined. A wildfire chronology encompassing the 15th through the 20th centuries was developed from analyzing tree stem fire scars. Two methods were used to calculate the time interval between fires: 1) direct counting of annual tree growth rings between stem fire scars and 2) the next earlier fire date was estimated from growth ring analysis and added to the first estimate. Average FRI determined from stem fire scar dating was 82 plus or minus 7 using Method I or 95 plus or minus 7 when age of the next earlier fire was inferred from observed larch regeneration structure (Method II). FRI was also found to be dependent on site topography. FRI on north-east facing slopes was 86 plus or minus 11 years (105 plus or minus 12). FRI on south-west facing slopes was significantly less at 61 plus or minus 8 (73 plus ot minus 8) years. Flat terrain showed little difference between methods 68 plus or minus 14 (70 plus or minus 13). This was also the case for bogs, but FRI was much longer; 139 plus or minus 17 (138 plus ot minus 18). The maximum number of annual fires occurred with periods of 36 and 82 years on average. The temporal trend in the FRI decreased from 101 years in the 19 th century to 65 years in the 20th century. The effect of post-fire forest recovery on depth to permafrost was also estimated. After initial melting from increased local temperatures permafrost depth decreased at a rate of 0.3 cm/yr on average as forest canopies developed.

Kharuk, V. I.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Improved Airborne System for Sensing Wildfires

The Wildfire Airborne Sensing Program (WASP) is engaged in a continuing effort to develop an improved airborne instrumentation system for sensing wildfires. The system could also be used for other aerial-imaging applications, including mapping and military surveillance. Unlike prior airborne fire-detection instrumentation systems, the WASP system would not be based on custom-made multispectral line scanners and associated custom- made complex optomechanical servomechanisms, sensors, readout circuitry, and packaging. Instead, the WASP system would be based on commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) equipment that would include (1) three or four electronic cameras (one for each of three or four wavelength bands) instead of a multispectral line scanner; (2) all associated drive and readout electronics; (3) a camera-pointing gimbal; (4) an inertial measurement unit (IMU) and a Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver for measuring the position, velocity, and orientation of the aircraft; and (5) a data-acquisition subsystem. It would be necessary to custom-develop an integrated sensor optical-bench assembly, a sensor-management subsystem, and software. The use of mostly COTS equipment is intended to reduce development time and cost, relative to those of prior systems.

McKeown, Donald↗

NASA NTRS2010

Infrared Sensor on Unmanned Aircraft Transmits Time-Critical Wildfire Data

Since 2006, NASA fs Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC) and Ames Research Center have been perfecting and demonstrating a new capability for geolocation of wildfires and the real-time delivery of data to firefighters. Managed for the Western States Fire Mission, the Ames-developed Autonomous Modular Scanner (AMS), mounted beneath a wing of DFRC fs MQ-9 Ikhana remotely piloted aircraft, contains an infrared sensor capable of discriminating temperatures within 0.5 F (approx. = 0.3 C), up to 1,000 F (approx. = 540 C). The AMS operates like a digital camera with specialized filters to detect light energy at visible, infrared, and thermal wavelengths. By placing the AMS aboard unmanned aircraft, one can gather information and imaging for thousands of square miles, and provide critical information about the location, size, and terrain around fires to commanders in the field. In the hands of operational agencies, the benefits of this NASA research and development effort can support nationwide wildfire fighting efforts. The sensor also provides data for post-burn and vegetation regrowth analyses. The MQ-9 Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS), a version of the Predator-B, can operate over long distances, staying aloft for over 24 hours, and controlled via a satellite-linked command and control system. This same link is used to deliver the fire location data directly to fire incident commanders, in less than 10 minutes from the time of overflight. In the current method, similarly equipped short-duration manned aircraft, with limited endurance and range, must land, hand-carry, and process data, and then deliver information to the firefighters, sometimes taking several hours in the process. Meanwhile, many fires would have moved over great distances and changed direction. Speed is critical. The fire incident commanders must assess a very dynamic situation, and task resources such as people, ground equipment, and retardant-dropping aircraft, often in mountainous terrain obscured by dense smoke.

Pestana, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2017

NASA Wrangler: Automated Cloud-Based Data Assembly in the RECOVER Wildfire Decision Support System

NASA Wrangler is a loosely-coupled, event driven, highly parallel data aggregation service designed to take advantageof the elastic resource capabilities of cloud computing. Wrangler automatically collects Earth observational data, climate model outputs, derived remote sensing data products, and historic biophysical data for pre-, active-, and post-wildfire decision making. It is a core service of the RECOVER decision support system, which is providing rapid-response GIS analytic capabilities to state and local government agencies. Wrangler reduces to minutes the time needed to assemble and deliver crucial wildfire-related data.

decision support↗