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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Phenology Shifts at Start vs. End of Growing Season in Temperate Vegetation Over the Northern Hemisphere for the Period 1982-2008

Changes in vegetative growing seasons are dominant indicators of the dynamic response of ecosystems to climate change. Therefore, knowledge of growing seasons over the past decades is essential to predict ecosystem changes. In this study, the long-term changes in the growing seasons of temperate vegetation over the Northern Hemisphere were examined by analyzing satellite-measured normalized difference vegetation index and reanalysis temperature during 1982 2008. Results showed that the length of the growing season (LOS) increased over the analysis period; however, the role of changes at the start of the growing season (SOS) and at the end of the growing season (EOS) differed depending on the time period. On a hemispheric scale, SOS advanced by 5.2 days in the early period (1982-1999) but advanced by only 0.2 days in the later period (2000-2008). EOS was delayed by 4.3 days in the early period, and it was further delayed by another 2.3 days in the later period. The difference between SOS and EOS in the later period was due to less warming during the preseason (January-April) before SOS compared with the magnitude of warming in the preseason (June September) before EOS. At a regional scale, delayed EOS in later periods was shown. In North America, EOS was delayed by 8.1 days in the early period and delayed by another 1.3 days in the later period. In Europe, the delayed EOS by 8.2 days was more significant than the advanced SOS by 3.2 days in the later period. However, in East Asia, the overall increase in LOS during the early period was weakened in the later period. Admitting regional heterogeneity, changes in hemispheric features suggest that the longer-lasting vegetation growth in recent decades can be attributed to extended leaf senescence in autumn rather than earlier spring leaf-out. Keywords: climate change, growing season, NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index), Northern Hemisphere, phenology,

Jeong, Su-Jong↗
DOE OSTI2020

Progenitor, precursor, and evolution of the dusty remnant of the stellar merger M31-LRN-2015

ABSTRACT M31-LRN-2015 is a likely stellar merger discovered in the Andromeda Galaxy in 2015. We present new optical to mid-infrared photometry and optical spectroscopy for this event. Archival data show that the source started to brighten ∼2 yr before the nova event. During this precursor phase, the source brightened by ∼3 mag. The light curve at 6 and 1.5 months before the main outburst may show periodicity, with periods of 16 ± 0.3 and 28.1 ± 1.4 d, respectively. This complex emission may be explained by runaway mass-loss from the system after the binary undergoes Roche lobe overflow, leading the system to coalesce in tens of orbital periods. While the progenitor spectral energy distribution shows no evidence of pre-existing warm dust in the system, the remnant forms an optically thick dust shell at approximately four months after the outburst peak. The optical depth of the shell increases dramatically after 1.5 yr, suggesting the existence of shocks that enhance the dust formation process. We propose that the merger remnant is likely an inflated giant obscured by a cooling shell of gas with mass ∼0.2 M⊙ ejected at the onset of the common envelope phase.

(ISM:) dust, extinction↗
NASA NTRS2016

Remotely Sensed Northern Vegetation Response to Changing Climate: Growing Season and Productivity Perspective

Vegetation growing season and maximum photosynthetic state determine spatiotemporal variability of seasonal total gross primary productivity of vegetation. Recent warming induced impacts accelerate shifts on growing season and physiological status over Northern vegetated land. Thus, understanding and quantifying these changes are very important. Here, we first investigate how vegetation growing season and maximum photosynthesis state are evolved and how such components contribute on inter-annual variation of seasonal total gross primary productivity. Furthermore, seasonally different response of northern vegetation to changing temperature and water availability is also investigated. We utilized both long-term remotely sensed data to extract larger scale growing season metrics (growing season start, end and duration) and productivity (i.e., growing season summed vegetation index, GSSVI) for answering these questions. We find that regionally diverged growing season shift and maximum photosynthetic state contribute differently characterized productivity inter-annual variability and trend. Also seasonally different response of vegetation gives different view of spatially varying interaction between vegetation and climate. These results highlight spatially and temporally varying vegetation dynamics and are reflective of biome-specific responses of northern vegetation to changing climate.

Climate↗
NASA NTRS2001

Combining New Satellite Tools and Models to Examine Role of Mesoscale Interactions in Formation and Intensification of Tropical Cyclones

The objective of this research is to start filling the mesoscale gap to improve understanding and probability forecasts of formation and intensity variations of tropical cyclones. Sampling by aircraft equipped to measure mesoscale processes is expensive, thus confined in place and time. Hence we turn to satellite products. This paper reports preliminary results of a tropical cyclone genesis and early intensification study. We explore the role of mesoscale processes using a combination of products from TRMM, QuikSCAT, AMSU, also SSM/I, geosynchronous and model output. Major emphasis is on the role of merging mesoscale vortices. These initially form in midlevel stratiform cloud. When they form in regions of lowered Rossby radius of deformation (strong background vorticity) the mesoscale vortices can last long enough to interact and merge, with the weaker vortex losing vorticity to the stronger, which can then extend down to the surface. In an earlier cyclongenesis case (Oliver 1993) off Australia, intense deep convection occurred when the stronger vortex reached the surface; this vortex became the storm center while the weaker vortex was sheared out as the major rainband. In our study of Atlantic tropical cyclones originating from African waves, we use QuikSCAT to examine surface winds in the African monsoon trough and in the vortices which move westward off the coast, which may or may not undergo genesis (defined by NHC as reaching TD, or tropical depression, with a west wind to the south of the surface low). We use AMSU mainly to examine development of warm cores. TRMM passive microwave TMI is used with SSM/I to look at the rain structure, which often indicates eye formation, and to look at the ice scattering signatures of deep convection. The TRMM precipitation radar, PR, when available, gives precipitation cross sections. So far we have detailed studies of two African-origin cyclones, one which became severe hurricane Floyd 1999, and the other reached TD2 in June 2000 and then died out. The atmosphere off West African is dry and stable. It becomes less so between June and September, as the SST and convection heat up. QuikSCAT shows the African monsoon trough and shear zone extend westward over the ocean to nearly 30 degrees West. The evidence is strong that the two cyclones had in common multiple midlevel mergers, which extended to the surface keeping the surface vortex strong. These continued until both systems were designated TD's by NHC. In the June 2000 case, the main reason for failure was the lower SST and dry, stable atmosphere. This is shown by the comparison of the equivalent potential temperature maps and profiles with those from pre-Floyd. In the vortex which became Floyd, QuikSCAT shows continuous importation of high theta e (warm, moist) air from the south. From September 2-8, this air flowed around the vortex center, building up a high theta-e pool to the north. Then late on September 9, a 100-km wide jet of high theta-e air penetrated the vortex core, a major convective burst' was observed, and an intensifying, more elevated warm core was seen on AMSU. Rapid pressure fall and wind intensification were underway by 0000 UTC on September 10. Floyd became a Hurricane at 1200 UTC on Sept 10, 1999, with successive convective bursts running the hurricane thermodynamic engine by intensifying the warm core. TD2 was a strong African vortex, sustained by moderate convection (up to about 12.5 km) offshore of Africa. It peaked on June 23, showing an apparent "eye" on passive microwave composites. However, it could not assemble the ingredients for a convective burst. Thus it failed to get the thermodynamic hurricane engine going before it moved too far west of the region of lowered Rossby radius. By June 26, cloud systems were dying out. On June 25, a surface vortex was no longer seen on QuikSCAT, although one continued above the surface on model profiles until June 27. One of our main findings so far is showing the role of the mesoscale vortex interactions in sustaining some African vortices far out in to the mid Atlantic, where under adequate thermal/moisture conditions the hurricane heat engine can sometimes be started. We are working on similar studies of Cindy and Irene 1999. Cindy illustrates a case of wind shear working against an early-stage hurricane heat engine, while Irene formed from a Caribbean wave. An enormous value of combinations of satellite tools is that tropical cyclones can be studied in all parts of the global oceans where they occur. Detailed studies like ours are labor intensive but many statistical studies can be based on physical postulates developed. There are other new tools such as MODIS on TERRA of the Earth Observing System (EOS) which can be used to study the microphysics of tropical cyclones world wide, in particular to investigate the presence of mixed phase and the impact of atmospheric aerosols on the hydrometeor structure and rainfall from tropical cyclones.

Simpson, Joanne↗
NASA NTRS2016

Aerosol Meteorology of the Maritime Continent for the 2012 7SEAS Southwest Monsoon Intensive Study - Part 1: Regional-scale Phenomena

The largest 7 Southeast Asian Studies (7SEAS) operation period within the Maritime Continent (MC) occurred in the August-September 2012 biomass burning season. Included was an enhanced deployment of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometers, multiple lidars, and field measurements to observe transported smoke and pollution as it left the MC and entered the southwest monsoon trough. Here we describe the nature of the overall 2012 southwest monsoon (SWM) and biomass burning season to give context to the 2012 deployment. The MC in 2012 was in a slightly warm El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase and with spatially typical burning activity. However, overall fire counts for 2012 were 10 lower than the Reid et al. (2012) baseline, with regions of significant departures from this norm, ranging from southern Sumatra (+30) to southern Kalimantan (42). Fire activity and monsoonal flows for the dominant burning regions were modulated by a series of intraseasonal oscillation events (e.g., Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, and boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation, or BSISO). As is typical, fire activity systematically progressed eastward over time, starting with central Sumatran fire activity in June related to a moderately strong MJO event which brought drier air from the Indian Ocean aloft and enhanced monsoonal flow. Further burning in Sumatra and Kalimantan Borneo occurred in a series of significant events from early August to a peak in the first week of October, ending when the monsoon started to migrate back to its wintertime northeastern flow conditions in mid-October. Significant monsoonal enhancements and flow reversals collinear with tropical cyclone (TC) activity and easterly waves were also observed. Islands of the eastern MC, including Sulawesi, Java, and Timor, showed less sensitivity to monsoonal variation, with slowly increasing fire activity that also peaked in early October but lingered into November. Interestingly, even though fire counts were middling, resultant AERONET 500nm aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from fire activity was high, with maximums of 3.6 and 5.6 in the Sumatra and Kalimantan source regions at the end of the burning season and an average of approximately 1. AOTs could also be high at receptor sites, with a mean and maximum of 0.57 and 1.24 in Singapore and 0.61 and 0.8 in Kuching Sarawak. Ultimately, outside of the extreme 2015 El Nino event, average AERONET AOT values were higher than any other time since sites were established. Thus, while satellite fire data, models, and AERONET all qualitatively agree on the nature of smoke production and transport, the MC's complex environment resulted in clear differences in quantitative interpretation of these datasets.

Reid, Jeffrey S.↗
NASA NTRS2020

The MODIS TEBs Calibration and Look-up Table Delivery Process for Collections 6 and 6.1

MODIS is a cross-track, whisk-broom scanning imaging radiometer with a double-sided scan mirror that collects data in 36 spectral bands. Sixteen of the 36 MODIS spectral bands are Thermal Emissive Bands (TEBs) whose spectral wavelengths range from 3.5 μm to 14.4 μm. The TEB detectors are calibrated on a scan-by-scan basis using a quadratic calibration algorithm by observing both the MODIS on-board blackbody (BB) and a background space view reference. Blackbody warm-up/cool-down (WUCD) events are performed quarterly to track on-orbit changes associated with the TEB detectors' non-linearity. Following each WUCD, the calibration coefficients in the quadratic algorithm, and their associated contributions to the total uncertainty, are updated and delivered through separate look-up tables (LUTs) when all update criteria are met. Afterwards, the LUTs are incorporated into the Level 1B (L1B) product. Since the Terra MODIS mission began, a steady increase in electronic cross-talk has been observed for TEBs 27{30. Starting from Collection 6.1, an algorithm has been applied using correction coefficients derived from regularly-scheduled lunar observations, with the correction LUT update dependent on its impact on the current L1B product. The MODIS Characterization Support Team (MCST) has established a comprehensive set of procedures to assure timely and accurate LUT updates, and maintain the quality and accuracy of the L1B and science products. This paper provides an overview of the current calibration and LUT delivery process for the MODIS TEBs in Collections 6 and 6.1.

MODIS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A comprehensive analysis of the crop effect on the urban-rural differences in land surface phenology

The response of land surface phenology (LSP) to the urban heat island effect (UHI) is a useful biological indicator for understanding how vegetated ecosystems will be affected by future climate warming. However, vegetation cover in rural areas is often dominated by cultivated land, whose phenological timing is considerably influenced by agricultural managements (e.g., timing of sowing and harvesting), leading to biased conclusions derived from the urban-rural LSP differences. To demonstrate this problem, we investigated the crop influence on the phenological response to a warmer environment resulting from the UHI effect. We partitioned cities in the United States into cultivated and non-cultivated categories according to the proportion of crops in rural areas. We then built continuous buffer zones starting from the urban boundary to explore the urban-rural LSP differences considering the UHI effect on them. In this work, the results suggest crop inclusion is likely to lead to >14 days of urban-rural differences at both the start of the season (SOS) and the end of the season (EOS) between cultivated and non-cultivated cities. The temperature sensitivity (ST) of SOS is overestimated by approximately 2.7 days/°C, whereas the EOS is underestimated by 3.6 days/°C. Removing crop-dominated pixels (i.e., above 50 %) can minimize the influence of crop planting/harvesting on LSP and derive reliable results. We, therefore, suggest explicit consideration of crop impacts in future studies of phenological differences between urban and rural areas and the UHI effect on LSP in urban domains, as presented by this comprehensive study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1998

Trends in Antarctic Surface Temperatures and Ice Extent from Satellite and Surface Observations

Surface air temperatures observed from stations around Antarctica have indicated predominantly positive trends which are as high as 0.4K per decade along the Antarctic Peninsula. Since the average air temperature during summer in the West Antarctic region is about -6 K, and since most of the stations are near coastal regions, it is important to know whether such trends are due to a local or large scale phenomenon. We analyzed about 19 years of infrared satellite data (1979-1997) to obtain a spatially detailed study of the variability of surface temperatures over the entire Antarctic region. We also analyzed potential impact of temperature changes over the sea ice cover using co-registered and nearly coincident microwave satellite data. The surface temperatures inferred from infrared data are shown to agree well with those observed from the limited number of Antarctic station data with a correlation coefficient of 0.98 and a standard deviation of less than 3K. The 19-year temperature data set shows positive trends of 0.12, 0.68, and 0.41 C per decade in ocean, sea ice and ice sheet surfaces, respectively. The sensitivity of the trend to record length was studied, using long term station data sets, and the results show that the trends start to stabilize at around 2 decades which is about the record length of satellite data. However, interannual fluctuations of the temperatures are large, especially in the ice sheets, and the 95% confidence level for the trends ranges from 0.12 to 1.22 for sea ice and from -0.74 to 1.55 C per decade for the ice sheet. In the sea ice regions, the position of the ice edge in winter with respect to the northernmost position of sea ice during the study period is also shown to be influenced by alternating warm and cold anomalies around the continent. This pattern is similar to that suggested by the presence of the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) but the wavenumber appears to be predominantly mode 3 (instead of reported mode 2) for the Antarctic region. Unexpectedly, trends in the sea ice extent are found to be positive in most Antarctic sectors during the same period with the exception of the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas region.

Comisc, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS2018

NOAA-20 VIIRS Thermal Emissive Bands On-Orbit Performance

The VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) instrument onboard the NOAA-20 satellite (launched on November 18, 2017) started to collect Earth-view data after its nadir door opened on December 13, 2017. Seven of the VIIRS bands, I4-5 and M12-16 are thermal emissive bands (TEBs), covering a spectral range from 3.6 to 12.5 meters. They began collecting valid data after the cold focal plane assembly (CFPA) cooled down to its nominal operating temperature on January 6, 2018. This paper will present the performance of each TEB, including calibration coefficients, noise equivalent differential temperature (NEdT), on-orbit calibration coefficient estimates from scheduled onboard blackbody warm-up and cool-down (WUCD) data, as well as related telemetry temperatures. Several methods are tested and compared in the WUCD data analysis for estimating the calibration coefficients. Based on the preliminary results, the NEdT of each band is well below the design specification and very close to that of the VIIRS onboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite. The detector gains appear stable for bands on the short- and mid-wave infrared CFPA, whereas the detector gains have larger than expected degradation for bands on the long-wave infrared CFPA during the early mission. All TEB-related telemetry temperatures are stable. The on-orbit performance of NOAA-20 VIIRS TEB is compared with VIIRS onboard the SNPP.

Thermal Emissive Bands (TEB)↗
NASA NTRS2011

Mesoscale Simulations of Gravity Waves During the 2008-2009 Major Stratospheric Sudden Warming

A series of 24 h mesoscale simulations (of 10 km horizontal and 400 m vertical resolution) are performed to examine the characteristics and forcing of gravity waves (GWs) relative to planetary waves (PWs) during the 2008-2009 major stratospheric sudden wam1ing (SSW). Just prior to SSW occurrence, widespread westward propagating GWs are found along the vortex's edge and associated predominantly with major topographical features and strong near-surface winds. Momentum forcing due to GWs surpasses PW forcing in the upper stratosphere and tends to decelerate the polar westerly jet in excess of 30 m/s/d. With SSW onset, PWs dominate the momentum forcing, providing decelerative effects in excess of 50 m/s/d throughout the upper polar stratosphere. GWs related to topography become less widespread largely due to incipient wind reversal as the vortex starts to elongate. During the SSW maturation and early recovery, the polar vortex eventually splits and both wave signatures and forcing greatly subside. Nonetheless, during SSW, westward and eastward propagating GWs are found in the polar region and may be generated in situ by flow adjustment processes in the stratosphere or by secondary GW breaking. The simulated large-scale features agree well with those resolved in satellite observations and analysis products.

Limpasuvan, Varavut↗
NASA NTRS2015

Contribution of Phenological and Physiological Variations on Northern Vegetation Productivity Changes over Last Three Decades

Plant phenology and maximum photosynthetic state determine spatiotemporal variability of gross primary productivity (GPP) of vegetation. Recent warming induced impacts accelerate shifts of phenology and physiological status over Northern vegetated land. Thus, understanding and quantifying these changes are very important. Here, we investigate 1) how vegetation phenology and physiological status (maximum photosynthesis) are evolved over last three decades and 2) how such components (phenology and physiological status) contribute on inter-annual variation of the GPP during the last three decades. We utilized both long-term remotely sensed (GIMMS (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies), NDVI3g (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index 3rd generation) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)) to extract larger scale phenology metrics (growing season start, end and duration); and productivity (i.e., growing season integrated vegetation index, GSIVI) to answer these questions. For evaluation purpose, we also introduced field-measured phenology and productivity datasets (e.g., FLUXNET) and possible remotely-sensed and modeled metrics at continental and regional scales. From this investigation, we found that onset of the growing season has advanced by 1.61 days per decade and the growing season end has delayed by 0.67 days per decade over the circumpolar region. This asymmetric extension of growing season results in a longer growing-season trend (2.96 days per decade) and widespread increasing vegetation-productivity trend (2.96 GSIVI per decade) over Northern land. However, the regionally-diverged phenology shift and maximum photosynthetic state contribute differently characterized productivity, inter-annual variability and trend. We quantified that about 50 percent, 13 percent and 6.5 percent of Northern land's inter-annual variability are dominantly controlled by the onset of the growing season, the end of the growing season and the maximum photosynthetic state, respectively. Productivity characterization over the other approximately 30 percent region has been driven by these co-dominant drivers. Our study clearly shows that regionally different contribution of phenological and physiological components on characterizing vegetation production over the last three decades.

productivity↗
DOE OSTI2022

Disturbance: a double-edged sword for restoration in a changing climate

Ecological restoration often relies on disturbance as a tool for establishing target plant communities, but disturbance can be a double-edged sword, at times initiating invasion and unintended outcomes. Here, in this study, we test how fire disturbance, designed to enhance restoration seeding success, combines with climate and initial vegetation conditions to shift perennial versus annual grass dominance and overall community diversity in Pacific Northwest grasslands. We seeded both native and introduced perennial grasses and native forbs in paired, replicated burned-unburned plots in three sites along a latitudinal climate gradient from southern Oregon to central-western Washington. Past restoration and climate manipulations at each site had increased the variation of starting conditions between plots. Burning promoted the expansion of extant forbs and perennial grasses across all sites. Burning also enhanced the seeding success of native perennial grass and native forbs at the northern and central site, and the success of introduced perennial grasses across all three sites. Annual grass dominance was driven more by latitude than burning, with annuals maintaining their dominance in the south and perennials in the north. At the same time, unrestored grasslands surrounding all sites remained dominated by perennial grasses, suggesting that initial plot clearing may have allowed for annual grass invasion in the southern site. When paired with disturbance, further warming may increase the risk of annual grass dominance, a potentially persistent state.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

Global Distribution and 14-Year Changes in Erythemal Irradiance, UV Atmospheric Transmission, and Total Column Ozone 2005 – 2018 Estimated from OMI and EPIC Observations

Satellite data from the Ozone Measuring Instrument (OMI) and Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) are used to study changes and global distribution of UV erythemal irradiance in mW/m(exp 2) E(ζ,φ,z,t) and the dimensionless UV index (E/25 mWm(exp 2)) over the Earth’s surface as a function of latitude ζ, longitude φ, altitude z, and time t. OMI time series data starting in January 2005 to December 2018 are used to estimate 14-year changes in erythemal irradiance, total column ozone TCO3, scene reflectivity LER, and aerosol absorption τA at specific land sites in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres using publicly available OMI data. Estimates of changes in atmospheric transmission ΔCτ(ζ,φ,z,t) derived from OMI measured cloud and haze reflectivity show an increase between 60°S to 45°S almost no average 14-year change from 55°S to 30°N but show an increase from 35°N to 55°N. This implies increased solar insolation at higher latitudes that suggests positive feedback for global warming. Changes in aerosol absorption of UV irradiance ΔCA(ζ,φ,z,t) derived from changes in τA are mostly in the equatorial region and at higher southern latitudes resulting in correlated changes in E. TCO3 derived from OMI data has increased at a rate of 2% per decade for the latitudes between 60°S to 10°N changing to a decrease of 1% per decade between 40°N to 60°N. The result is an average decrease in E(ζ,φ,z,t) at a rate of 2% per decade in the Southern Hemisphere and an increase between 40°N to 60°N. For some specific sites (latitudes from 55°S to 45°N) there has been little or no change in E(ζ,φ,z,t) for the period 2005 – 2018. Nearly half the sites show strong correlation effects of both short- and long-term cloud and absorbing aerosol change as well as anticorrelation with total column ozone change ΔTCO3. Synoptic EPIC data from the sunlit Earth are used to derive ozone and reflectivity needed for global images of the distribution of E(ζ,φ,z,t) from sunrise to sunset centered on the Americas, Europe-Africa, and Asia. EPIC data are used to show the latitudinal distribution of E(ζ,φ,z,t) from the equator to 75° for specific longitudes. Dangerously high amounts of erythemal irradiance (12 < UV index < 18) are found for many low latitude and high-altitude sites (e.g., San Pedro, Chile (2.45 km), La Paz, Bolivia (3.78 km). Lower UV indices at some equatorial or high-altitude sites (e.g., Quito, Ecuador) are moderated by the presence of persistent cloud effects. High UVI levels (UVI > 6) are also found at most mid-latitude sites during the summer months.

Ozone Measuring Instrument (OMI) and Earth Polychr↗
NASA NTRS2023

Observational Evidence of Strong Forcing from Aerosol Effect on Low Cloud Coverage

Aerosols cool Earth’s climate indirectly by increasing low cloud brightness and their coverage (Cf), constituting the aerosol indirect forcing (AIF). The forcing partially offsets the greenhouse warming and positively correlates with the climate sensitivity. However, it remains highly uncertain. Here, we show direct observational evidence for strong forcing from Cf adjustment to increased aerosols and weak forcing from cloud liquid water path adjustment. We estimate that the Cf adjustment drives between 52% and 300% of additional forcing to the Twomey effect over the ocean and a total AIF of −1.1 ± 0.8 W m -2 . The Cf adjustment follows a power law as a function of background cloud droplet number concentration, N d . It thus depends on time and location and is stronger when N d is low. Cf only increases substantially when background clouds start to drizzle, suggesting a role for aerosol-precipitation interactions. Our findings highlight the Cf adjustment as the key process for reducing the uncertainty of AIF and thus future climate projections.

Tianle Yuan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stable Cadmium-Free Quantum Dot Optical Down-Converters for Solid State Lighting

Quantum dots (QDs) have been used in commercial solid-state lighting (SSL) applications to improve the energy efficiency of light generation at warm color temperatures. By increasing the amount of QDs used in each product, further energy savings are possible; however, traditional QDs contain cadmium, which has regulatory limits on its concentration in consumer products. As described within this final technical report, we have established that heavy-metal free QDs made from indium phosphide (InP) exhibit highly efficient emission at the temperatures and fluxes relevant to SSL. However, the maintenance of this emission is compromised during long term operation due to QD oxidation. We have identified multiple methods to slow the oxidation rate, which has improved the operational stability of these materials more than 200 times longer than at the project start. Beyond these improvements, heavy-metal free QDs require a further hundred-fold increase in stability to enable use in mid-power SSL and a ten-fold increase in stability to enable use in diffuse SSL applications. The outcomes of this project demonstrate feasibility for the use of heavy-metal free QDs in commercial SSL applications with potential use in diffuse SSL applications in the near term (1-2 years) pending market need.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?

Abstract. A 15-member ensemble of convection-permitting regional simulations of the fast-moving and destructive derecho of 29–30 June 2012 that impacted the northeastern urban corridor of the USA is presented. This event generated 1100 reports of damaging winds, generated significant wind gusts over an extensive area of up to 500 000 km2, caused several fatalities, and resulted in widespread loss of electrical power. Extreme events such as this are increasingly being used within pseudo-global-warming experiments to examine the sensitivity of historical, societally important events to global climate non-stationarity and how they may evolve as a result of changing thermodynamic and dynamic contexts. As such it is important to examine the fidelity with which such events are described in hindcast experiments. The regional simulations presented herein are performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The resulting ensemble is used to explore simulation fidelity relative to observations for wind gust magnitudes, spatial scales of convection (as is manifest in high composite reflectivity, cREF), and both rainfall and hail production as a function of model configuration (microphysics parameterization, lateral boundary conditions (LBCs), start date, use of nudging, compiler choice, damping, and number of vertical levels). We also examine the degree to which each ensemble member differs with respect to key mesoscale drivers of convective systems (e.g., convective available potential energy and vertical wind shear) and critical manifestations of deep convection, e.g., vertical velocities, cold-pool generation, and how those properties relate to the correct characterization of the associated atmospheric hazards (wind gusts and hail). Use of a double-moment, seven-class scheme with number concentrations for all species (including hail and graupel) results in the greatest fidelity of model-simulated wind gusts and convective structure to the observations of this event. All ensemble members, however, fail to capture the intensity of the event in terms of the spatial extent of convection and the production of high near-surface wind gusts. We further show very high sensitivity to the LBCs employed and specifically that simulation fidelity is higher for simulations nested within ERA-Interim compared to ERA5. Excess convective available potential energy (CAPE) in all ensemble members after the derecho passage leads to excess production of convective cells, wind gusts, cREF > 40 dBZ, and precipitation during a frontal passage on the subsequent day. This event proved very challenging to forecast in real time and to reproduce in the 15-member hindcast simulation ensemble presented here. Future work could examine if simulations with other initial and lateral boundary conditions can achieve greater fidelity.

Shepherd, Tristan (ORCID:0000000186276419)↗
NASA NTRS2003

Space/Time Statistics of Polar Ice Motion

Ice motions have been computed from passive microwave imagery (SMMR and SSM/I) on a daily basis for both Polar Regions. In the Arctic these daily motions have been merged with daily motions from AVHRR imagery and the Arctic buoy program. In the Antarctic motion only from the AVHRR were available for merging with the passive microwave vectors. Long-term means, monthly means and weekly means have all been computed from the resulting 22-year time series of polar ice motion. Papers are in preparation that present the long term (22 year) means, their variability and show animations of the monthly means over this time period for both Polar Regions. These papers will have links to "enhanced objects" that allow the reader to view the animations as part of the paper. The first paper presents the ice motion results from each of the Polar Regions. The second paper looks only at ice motion in the Arctic in order to develop a time series of ice age in the Arctic. Starting with the first full SMMR year in 1979 we keep track of each individual "ice element" (resolution of the sensor) and track it in the subsequent monthly time series. After a year we "age" each "particle" and we thus can keep track of the age of the ice starting in 1979. We keep track of ice age classes between one and five years and thus we can see the evolution of the ice as it ages after the initial 5-year period. This calculation shows how we are losing the older ice through Fram Strait at a rather alarming rate particularly in the past 15 years. This loss of older ice has resulted in an overall decrease in the thickest, oldest ice, which is now limited to a region just north of the Canadian Archipelago with tongues extending out across the pole towards the Siberian Shelf. This loss of old ice is consistent with the effects of global warming which provides the heat needed to melt, move and disperse this oldest ice through Fram Strait. This is the first step in a progression that may eventually open the Arctic ice pack and lead to an ice-free Arctic Ocean.

Emery, William J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Impact of Microphysical Schemes on Intensity and Track of Hurricane

During the past decade, both research and operational numerical weather prediction models [e.g. Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)] have started using more complex microphysical schemes originally developed for high-resolution cloud resolving models (CRMs) with a 1-2 km or less horizontal resolutions. The WRF is a next-generation meso-scale forecast model and assimilation system that has incorporated a modern software framework, advanced dynamics, numeric and data assimilation techniques, a multiple moveable nesting capability, and improved physical packages. The WRF model can be used for a wide range of applications, from idealized research to operational forecasting, with an emphasis on horizontal grid sizes in the range of 1-10 km. The current WRF includes several different microphysics options. At Goddard, four different cloud microphysics schemes (warm rain only, two-class of ice, two three-class of ice with either graupel or hail) are implemented into the WRF. The performances of these schemes have been compared to those from other WRF microphysics scheme options for an Atlantic hurricane case. In addition, a brief review and comparison on the previous modeling studies on the impact of microphysics schemes and microphysical processes on intensity and track of hurricane will be presented. Generally, almost all modeling studies found that the microphysics schemes did not have major impacts on track forecast, but did have more effect on the intensity. All modeling studies found that the simulated hurricane has rapid deepening and/or intensification for the warm rain-only case. It is because all hydrometeors were very large raindrops, and they fell out quickly at and near the eye-wall region. This would hydrostatically produce the lowest pressure. In addition, these modeling studies suggested that the simulated hurricane becomes unrealistically strong by removing the evaporative cooling of cloud droplets and melting of ice particles. This is due to the much weaker downdraft simulated. However, there are many differences between different modeling studies and these differences were identified and discussed.

Tao, W. K.↗