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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Microstructural stability and mechanical properties of the as-cast and heat-treated newly developed TiNbCrTa refractory complex concentrated alloy

In this study, a TiNbCrTa refractory complex concentrated alloy (RCCA) was prepared using vacuum arc remelting. The microstructural evolution and mechanical properties of both as-cast and heat-treated RCCA samples were analyzed. Heat treatment (HT) was performed at 800–1200 °C for 1 h in a vacuum-sealed environment. These samples exhibited a formation of Cr 2 Nb and Cr 2 Ti Laves phases. A variation in elemental distribution was observed, with interdendritic (ID) regions showing higher fractions of Ti and Cr, while the dendritic regions had a greater concentration of Ta and Nb. Micro-segregation at the IDs was confirmed through energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy mapping, which inferred the formation of Cr- and Ti-rich phases during HT at 800–1200 °C. High-temperature HT at 1200 °C for 1 h led to the evolution of the hcp omega phase. Prolonged HT at 1200 °C for 96 h resulted in the evolution of a Cr-rich Laves phase (Cr 2 Ta), which was homogeneously distributed within the microstructure, indicating an unstable microstructure. Furthermore, despite prolonged HT, a variation in the elemental distribution persisted due to the presence of dendritic and ID regions. Electron backscattered diffraction analysis revealed the presence of bcc and hcp phases in the dendritic and ID regions, respectively, of the as-cast and HTed samples. The as-cast samples demonstrated a high compressive strength of approximately 2 GPa. Micro-hardness values increased with the HT temperature up to 1000 °C. Further increases under HT conditions did not significantly reduce the microhardness value, whereas prolonged HT at 1200 °C led to an increase in the microhardness value. Overall, the newly developed TiNbCrTa RCCA exhibited high-strength behavior even after the phase transformation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Search for Infrasound Signals in InSight Data Using Coupled Pressure/Ground Deformation Methods

The unprecedented quality and sampling rate of seismometer and pressure sensors of the InSight Mars mission allow us to investigate infrasound through its pressure and ground deformation signals. This study focuses on compliance effects induced by acoustic waves propagating almost horizontally close to the surface. The compliance of acoustic waves is first estimated using the compliance estimates from pressure perturbations moving at wind speed. Then, a marker of compliance events is used to detect events of ground deformation induced by pressure variations, in three frequency bands from 0.4 to 3.2 Hz, from InSight sol 180 to 690. Additional selection criteria are imposed on the detected events to focus on acoustic waves and to remove various noise sources (e.g., wind effects or seismometer artifacts). After an automated selection, the visual inspection of the records allows us to validate two infrasound candidates that cannot be related to pressure perturbations moving at wind speed nor to known noise sources. For our highest quality infrasound candidate, the relation between this event and a convective vortex occuring 10 s later is tested. The azimuth of the vortex position at the time of infrasound detection is not consistent with the arrival azimuth of the suspected infrasound inferred from the polarization of seismometer records, thus the link between these two phenomena cannot be demonstrated. Further investigations would require a better understanding of wind-related noise impacting InSight sensors and of the effects of lateral variations of subsurface mechanical properties on the ground deformations induced by atmospheric pressure variations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Goal-oriented a-posteriori estimation of model error as an aid to parameter estimation

In this work, a Bayesian model calibration framework is presented that utilizes goal-oriented a-posterior error estimates in quantities of interest (QoIs) for classes of high-fidelity models characterized by PDEs. It is shown that for a large class of computational models, it is possible to develop a computationally inexpensive procedure for calibrating parameters of high-fidelity models of physical events when the parameters of low-fidelity (surrogate) models are known with acceptable accuracy. The main ingredients in the proposed model calibration scheme are goal-oriented a-posteriori estimates of error in QoIs computed using a so-called lower fidelity model compared to those of an uncalibrated higher fidelity model. The estimates of error in QoIs are used to define likelihood functions in Bayesian inversion analysis. A standard Bayesian approach is employed to compute the posterior distribution of model parameters of high-fidelity models. As applications, parameters in a quasi-linear second-order elliptic boundary-value problem (BVP) are calibrated using a second-order linear elliptic BVP. In a second application, parameters of a tumor growth model involving nonlinear time-dependent PDEs are calibrated using a lower fidelity linear tumor growth model with known parameter values.

A-posterior estimates↗
DOE OSTI2022

AtomAI framework for deep learning analysis of image and spectroscopy data in electron and scanning probe microscopy

Over the past several decades, electron and scanning probe microscopes have become critical components of condensed matter physics, materials science and chemistry research. At the same time, the infrastructure for establishing a connection between microscopy observations and materials behaviour over a broader parameter space is lacking. In this work, we introduce AtomAI, an open-source software package bridging instrument-specific Python libraries, deep learning and simulation tools into a single ecosystem. AtomAI allows direct applications of deep neural networks for atomic and mesoscopic image segmentation converting image and spectroscopy data into class-based local descriptors for downstream tasks such as statistical and graph analysis. For atomically resolved imaging data, the output is types and positions of atomic species, with an option for subsequent refinement. AtomAI further allows the implementation of a broad range of image and spectrum analysis functions, including invariant variational autoencoders for disentangling structural factors of variation and im2spec type of encoder–decoder models for mapping structure–property relationships. Finally, our framework allows seamless connection to the first principles modelling with a Python interface on the inferred atomic positions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Amplicon Sequencing Assessment to Measure Microbial Community Response from Heavy Metal Contaminated Soils in Savannah River site, Tims Branch watershed

Long-term presence of heavy metal contamination in soils is correlated with changes in microbial community structures and can lead to the reduction of indigenous species. Tolerance to soil heavy metal toxicity varies among different microbial communities. It remains unclear whether long term effects caused by metal perturbations are associated with soil microbial community dysregulation in Tims Branch watershed. Research Questions: Does heavy metal contamination in Tims Branch soils decrease microbial species diversity significantly compared to non-contaminated soils? Does the species richness decrease in contaminated samples? between samples? Is diversity in low, mid and high contamination soils significantly different compared to control samples? Hypothesis: The relative abundance and diversity of species are significantly altered in soils which are contaminated with heavy metals in the Tims Branch watershed. Objectives: Use amplicon sequencing technology along with bioinformatics to compare bacterial communities between four sites in Tims Branch watershed. Evaluate the percent relative abundance and diversity across the site. Conclusions: All bacterial communities exposed to different heavy metal concentrations were dominated by four major groups (Proteobacteria, Acidobacteria, Chloroflexi and Verrucomicrobia). The dominant phyla Proteobacteria, Acidobacteria and Chloroflexi accounted for 61 % of the relative abundance. Soil bacterial α-diversity, expressed as observed species richness metric and Shannon's diversity index, was the highest in sample location four (high contamination). The lowest observed was at the control location. Species richness increased when concentrations of heavy metals were localized, inferring that the metals can alter microbial community structure. PERMANOVA analysis between contaminated groups tested significant using the Adonis (F (4,29) =1.9712; p < 0.001). There is a 20 percent variation explained between groups (R2 = 0.214). This analysis proves to be beneficial in detecting microbial communities altered by contaminated soils. Moreover, certain concentrations of heavy metals can alter microbial community structures.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inferring nuclear structure from heavy isobar collisions using Trajectum

Nuclei with equal number of baryons but varying proton number (isobars) have many commonalities, but differ in both electric charge and nuclear structure. Relativistic collisions of such isobars provide unique opportunities to study the variation of the magnetic field, provided the nuclear structure is well understood. In this work we simulate collisions using several state-of-the-art parametrizations of the ^{96}_{40} 40 96 Zr and ^{96}_{44} 44 96 Ru isobars and show that a comparison with the exciting STAR measurement [arXiv:2109.00131] of ultrarelativistic collisions can uniquely identify the structure of both isobars. This not only provides an urgently needed understanding of the structure of the Zirconium and Ruthenium isobars, but also paves the way for more detailed studies of nuclear structure using relativistic heavy ion collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying microbial control of soil organic matter dynamics at macrosystem scales

Soil organic matter (SOM) stocks, decomposition and persistence are largely the product of controls that act locally. Yet the controls are shaped and interact at multiple spatiotemporal scales, from which macrosystem patterns in SOM emerge. Theory on SOM turnover recognizes the resulting spatial and temporal conditionality in the effect sizes of controls that play out across macrosystems, and couples them through evolutionary and community assembly processes. For example, climate history shapes plant functional traits, which in turn interact with contemporary climate to influence SOM dynamics. Selection and assembly also shape the functional traits of soil decomposer communities, but it is less clear how in turn these traits influence temporal macrosystem patterns in SOM turnover. Here, we review evidence that establishes the expectation that selection and assembly should generate decomposer communities across macrosystems that have distinct functional effects on SOM dynamics. Representation of this knowledge in soil biogeochemical models affects the magnitude and direction of projected SOM responses under global change. Yet there is high uncertainty and low confidence in these projections. To address these issues, we make the case that a coordinated set of empirical practices are required which necessitate (1) greater use of statistical approaches in biogeochemistry that are suited to causative inference; (2) long-term, macrosystem-scale, observational and experimental networks to reveal conditionality in effect sizes, and embedded correlation, in controls on SOM turnover; and (3) use of multiple measurement grains to capture local- and macroscale variation in controls and outcomes, to avoid obscuring causative understanding through data aggregation. Here, when employed together, along with process-based models to synthesize knowledge and guide further empirical work, we believe these practices will rapidly advance understanding of microbial controls on SOM and improve carbon cycle projections that guide policies on climate adaptation and mitigation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Flow over an espresso cup: inferring 3-D velocity and pressure fields from tomographic background oriented Schlieren via physics-informed neural networks

Tomographic background oriented Schlieren (Tomo-BOS) imaging measures density or temperature fields in three dimensions using multiple camera BOS projections, and is particularly useful for instantaneous flow visualizations of complex fluid dynamics problems. We propose a new method based on physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) to infer the full continuous three-dimensional (3-D) velocity and pressure fields from snapshots of 3-D temperature fields obtained by Tomo-BOS imaging. The PINNs seamlessly integrate the underlying physics of the observed fluid flow and the visualization data, hence enabling the inference of latent quantities using limited experimental data. In this hidden fluid mechanics paradigm, we train the neural network by minimizing a loss function composed of a data mismatch term and residual terms associated with the coupled Navier–Stokes and heat transfer equations. We first quantify the accuracy of the proposed method based on a two-dimensional synthetic data set for buoyancy-driven flow, and subsequently apply it to the Tomo-BOS data set, where we are able to infer the instantaneous velocity and pressure fields of the flow over an espresso cup based only on the temperature field provided by the Tomo-BOS imaging. Moreover, we conduct an independent PIV experiment to validate the PINN inference for the unsteady velocity field at a centre plane. To explain the observed flow physics, we also perform systematic PINN simulations at different Reynolds and Richardson numbers and quantify the variations in velocity and pressure fields. Furthermore, the results in this paper indicate that the proposed deep learning technique can become a promising direction in experimental fluid mechanics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparative Genomics and Transcriptomics Analyses Reveal Divergent Plant Biomass-Degrading Strategies in Fungi

Plant biomass is one of the most abundant renewable carbon sources, which holds great potential for replacing current fossil-based production of fuels and chemicals. In nature, fungi can efficiently degrade plant polysaccharides by secreting a broad range of carbohydrate-active enzymes (CAZymes), such as cellulases, hemicellulases, and pectinases. Due to the crucial role of plant biomass-degrading (PBD) CAZymes in fungal growth and related biotechnology applications, investigation of their genomic diversity and transcriptional dynamics has attracted increasing attention. In this project, we systematically compared the genome content of PBD CAZymes in six taxonomically distant species, Aspergillus niger, Aspergillus nidulans, Penicillium subrubescens, Trichoderma reesei, Phanerochaete chrysosporium, and Dichomitus squalens, as well as their transcriptome profiles during growth on nine monosaccharides. Considerable genomic variation and remarkable transcriptomic diversity of CAZymes were identified, implying the preferred carbon source of these fungi and their different methods of transcription regulation. In addition, the specific carbon utilization ability inferred from genomics and transcriptomics was compared with fungal growth profiles on corresponding sugars, to improve our understanding of the conversion process. This study enhances our understanding of genomic and transcriptomic diversity of fungal plant polysaccharide-degrading enzymes and provides new insights into designing enzyme mixtures and metabolic engineering of fungi for related industrial applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Differentiable Hydrology Approach for Modeling With Time-Varying Parameters

In the analysis of observational data with mathematical models, it is often desirable to let one or more model parameters vary with time to account for changing environmental conditions or to offer more flexibility. A standard approach for dynamic models is to allow for the number of parameters to grow as a function of time, leading to a high-dimensional inference problem for long data records. We propose using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, a gradient-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, to perform Bayesian inference for time-varying parameters (TVP) in hydrology models. As derivatives of model error functions with regard to parameters are not available in closed form, we implemented the GR4J rainfall-runoff models in Theano/PyMC3, and Jax/NumPyro, allowing for the application of automatic differentiation techniques. A simulation experiment assessing the viability of these methods for recovering underlying temporal variation in parameters indicates that a discrete Gaussian random walk-based prior appears to be best suited across a range of scenarios while the continuous-time Gaussian process compares relatively poorly. In an analysis of 20 years of daily real-world streamflow records from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) hydrology data set with increasing data sparsity and at multiple temporal resolutions, we find that TVP inference with gradient-based MCMC is a flexible and reliable approach for analyzing hydrology models with dynamic parameter sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mineralogical and isotopic constraints on early, high-temperature events and reservoirs recorded in the interior of a Type B Ca-Al-rich inclusion from the reduced CV3 chondrite Vigarano

A coordinated mineralogical and oxygen and Al-Mg isotopic study of a Type B Ca-Al-rich inclusion (CAI) from the reduced CV3 chondrite Vigarano was carried out using electron microprobe analysis, transmission electron microscopy, and secondary ion mass spectrometry. This CAI, a once molten igneous object, shows heterogeneous oxygen isotopic compositions among its constituent mineral phases. Spinel is uniformly 16 O-rich with Δ 17 O ≤ −23 ‰. The Δ 17 O values of Al,Ti-diopside in the CAI core range from −11 ‰ to −18 ‰, which are positively correlated with its TiO 2 contents, whereas diopside in the Wark–Lovering (WL) rim is 16 O-rich with Δ 17 O = −23 ‰. Melilite in the CAI mantle shows Δ 17 O values ≤ −10 ‰ only when Åk <15 but becomes more 16 O-poor (Δ 17 O = −3 ‰ to −9 ‰) when Åk >15 . These correlated chemical and oxygen isotopic variations were likely established during crystallization of melilite and Al,Ti-diopside from a partial melt, while spinel preserves the original 16 O-rich composition of the CAI precursor. We infer that a partial melt was isotopically evolving from 16 O-rich to 16 O-poor during melilite crystallization, then back to 16 O-rich during Al,Ti-diopside crystallization via exchange with different gas reservoirs of 16 O-poor and 16 O-rich compositions during heating event(s). Our Al-Mg isotopic measurements of the CAI core and mantle define a single isochron with an inferred initial 26 Al/ 27 Al ratio of (4.93 ± 0.18) × 10 −5 , indistinguishable from that of the WL rim. This indicates that multiple high-temperature events and oxygen isotope exchange with isotopically distinct gas reservoirs occurred rapidly during the CAI formation.

Al-Mg isotopic systematic↗
DOE OSTI2023

classLog: Logistic regression for the classification of genetic sequences

Introduction Sequencing and phylogenetic classification have become a common task in human and animal diagnostic laboratories. It is routine to sequence pathogens to identify genetic variations of diagnostic significance and to use these data in realtime genomic contact tracing and surveillance. Under this paradigm, unprecedented volumes of data are generated that require rapid analysis to provide meaningful inference. Methods We present a machine learning logistic regression pipeline that can assign classifications to genetic sequence data. The pipeline implements an intuitive and customizable approach to developing a trained prediction model that runs in linear time complexity, generating accurate output rapidly, even with incomplete data. Our approach was benchmarked against porcine respiratory and reproductive syndrome virus (PRRSv) and swine H1 influenza A virus (IAV) datasets. Trained classifiers were tested against sequences and simulated datasets that artificially degraded sequence quality at 0, 10, 20, 30, and 40%. Results When applied to a poor-quality sequence data, the classifier achieved between >85% to 95% accuracy for the PRRSv and the swine H1 IAV HA dataset and this increased to near perfect accuracy when using the full dataset. The model also identifies amino acid positions used to determine genetic clade identity through a feature selection ranking within the model. These positions can be mapped onto a maximum-likelihood phylogenetic tree, allowing for the inference of clade defining mutations. Discussion Our approach is implemented as a python package with code available at https://github.com/flu-crew/classLog .

Zeller, Michael A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Support Vector Machines for Classification of Direct Energy Deposition Standoff Distance for Improved Process Control

A critical factor in the implementation of direct energy deposition is the ability to maintain the standoff distance between the nozzle and the build surface, as this influences powder capture efficiency and overall part quality. Due to process-related variations, layer height may vary, causing unintended variation in standoff distance and poor build quality. While prior work has utilized contact probing to qualify standoff distance during processing, in situ methods for qualification of standoff distance are of major interest. The present work seeks to understand efficacy of image-based methods for classifying standoff distance variation in real-time using support vector machines (SVMs). It was hypothesized that the size of the melt pool and the amount of spatter will have significant correlations with deviations in the standoff distance; thus, SVMs were used on a dataset that is comprised of morphological features of melt pool size and image entropy. The SVM model was used to classify melt pool images into categories according to standoff distance variation from nominal. K-folds cross validation was used to find the optimal hyperparameters for the SVM model. To understand the impact of the selected features on the classification performance and inference speed, multiple models were trained with differing numbers of included features. Results for classification score, inference time, and image preprocessing/feature extraction from these data are reported. The present results show that the SVM model was able to predict the standoff distance classification with an accuracy of 97 percent and a speed of 0.122 s per image, making it a viable solution for real-time control of standoff distance.

Klesmith, Zoe↗
DOE OSTI2022

Environmental controls on the light use efficiency of terrestrial gross primary production

Abstract Gross primary production (GPP) by terrestrial ecosystems is a key quantity in the global carbon cycle. The instantaneous controls of leaf‐level photosynthesis are well established, but there is still no consensus on the mechanisms by which canopy‐level GPP depends on spatial and temporal variation in the environment. The standard model of photosynthesis provides a robust mechanistic representation for C 3 species; however, additional assumptions are required to “scale up” from leaf to canopy. As a consequence, competing models make inconsistent predictions about how GPP will respond to continuing environmental change. This problem is addressed here by means of an empirical analysis of the light use efficiency (LUE) of GPP inferred from eddy covariance carbon dioxide flux measurements, in situ measurements of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and remotely sensed estimates of the fraction of PAR (fAPAR) absorbed by the vegetation canopy. Focusing on LUE allows potential drivers of GPP to be separated from its overriding dependence on light. GPP data from over 100 sites, collated over 20 years and located in a range of biomes and climate zones, were extracted from the FLUXNET2015 database and combined with remotely sensed fAPAR data to estimate daily LUE. Daytime air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, diffuse fraction of solar radiation, and soil moisture were shown to be salient predictors of LUE in a generalized linear mixed‐effects model. The same model design was fitted to site‐based LUE estimates generated by 16 terrestrial ecosystem models. The published models showed wide variation in the shape, the strength, and even the sign of the environmental effects on modeled LUE. These findings highlight important model deficiencies and suggest a need to progress beyond simple “goodness of fit” comparisons of inferred and predicted carbon fluxes toward an approach focused on the functional responses of the underlying dependencies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

STSR-INR: Spatiotemporal super-resolution for multivariate time-varying volumetric data via implicit neural representation

Implicit neural representation (INR) has surfaced as a promising direction for solving different scientific visualization tasks due to its continuous representation and flexible input and output settings. We present STSR-INR, an INR solution for generating simultaneous spatiotemporal super-resolution for multivariate time-varying volumetric data. Inheriting the benefits of the INR-based approach, STSR-INR supports unsupervised learning and permits data upscaling with arbitrary spatial and temporal scale factors. Unlike existing GAN- or INR-based super-resolution methods, STSR-INR focuses on tackling variables or ensembles and enabling joint training across datasets of various spatiotemporal resolutions. Here we achieve this capability via a variable embedding scheme that learns latent vectors for different variables. In conjunction with a modulated structure in the network design, we employ a variational auto-decoder to optimize the learnable latent vectors to enable latent-space interpolation. To combat the slow training of INR, we leverage a multi-head strategy to improve training and inference speed with significant speedup. We demonstrate the effectiveness of STSR-INR with multiple scalar field datasets and compare it with conventional tricubic+linear interpolation and state-of-the-art deep-learning-based solutions (STNet and CoordNet).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring HOD-dependent systematics for the DESI 2024 Full-Shape galaxy clustering analysis

We analyze the robustness of the DESI 2024 cosmological inference from the full shape of the galaxy power spectrum to uncertainties in the Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) model of the galaxy-halo connection and the choice of priors on nuisance parameters. We assess variations in the recovered cosmological parameters across a range of mocks populated with different HOD models and find that shifts are often greater than 20% of the expected statistical uncertainties from the DESI data. We encapsulate the effect of such shifts in terms of a systematic covariance term, C HOD , and an additional diagonal contribution quantifying the impact of our choice of nuisance parameter priors on the ability of the effective field theory (EFT) model to correctly recover the cosmological parameters of the simulations. These two covariance contributions are designed to be added to the usual covariance term, C stat , describing the statistical uncertainty in the power spectrum measurement, in order to fairly represent these sources of systematic uncertainty. This novel approach should be more general and robust to the choice of model or additional external datasets used in cosmological fits than the alternative approach of adding systematic uncertainties to the recovered marginalised parameter posteriors. We compare the approaches within the context of a fixed ΛCDM model and demonstrate that our method gives conservative estimates of the systematic uncertainty that nevertheless have little impact on the final posteriors obtained from DESI data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for low mass dark matter in DarkSide-50: the bayesian network approach

Abstract We present a novel approach for the search of dark matter in the DarkSide-50 experiment, relying on Bayesian Networks. This method incorporates the detector response model into the likelihood function, explicitly maintaining the connection with the quantity of interest. No assumptions about the linearity of the problem or the shape of the probability distribution functions are required, and there is no need to morph signal and background spectra as a function of nuisance parameters. By expressing the problem in terms of Bayesian Networks, we have developed an inference algorithm based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo to calculate the posterior probability. A clever description of the detector response model in terms of parametric matrices allows us to study the impact of systematic variations of any parameter on the final results. Our approach not only provides the desired information on the parameter of interest, but also potential constraints on the response model. Our results are consistent with recent published analyses and further refine the parameters of the detector response model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven prediction of scaling and ignition of inertial confinement fusion experiments

Recent advances in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) at the National Ignition Facility (NIF), including ignition and energy gain, are enabled by a close coupling between experiments and high-fidelity simulations. Neither simulations nor experiments can fully constrain the behavior of ICF implosions on their own, meaning pre- and postshot simulation studies must incorporate experimental data to be reliable. Linking past data with simulations to make predictions for upcoming designs and quantifying the uncertainty in those predictions has been an ongoing challenge in ICF research. We have developed a data-driven approach to prediction and uncertainty quantification that combines large ensembles of simulations with Bayesian inference and deep learning. The approach builds a predictive model for the statistical distribution of key performance parameters, which is jointly informed by past experiments and physics simulations. The prediction distribution captures the impact of experimental uncertainty, expert priors, design changes, and shot-to-shot variations. We have used this new capability to predict a 10× increase in ignition probability between Hybrid-E shots driven with 2.05 MJ compared to 1.9 MJ, and validated our predictions against subsequent experiments. We describe our new Bayesian postshot and prediction capabilities, discuss their application to NIF ignition and validate the results, and finally investigate the impact of data sparsity on our prediction results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗