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DOE OSTI2022

Advances in the Application and Utility of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictions

The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictive time scale, encompassing lead times ranging from 2 weeks to a season, is at the frontier of forecasting science. Forecasts on this time scale provide opportunities for enhanced application-focused capabilities to complement existing weather and climate services and products. There is, however, a “knowledge–value” gap, where a lack of evidence and awareness of the potential socioeconomic benefits of S2S forecasts limits their wider uptake. To address this gap, here we present the first global community effort at summarizing relevant applications of S2S forecasts to guide further decision-making and support the continued development of S2S forecasts and related services. Focusing on 12 sectoral case studies spanning public health, agriculture, water resource management, renewable energy and utilities, and emergency management and response, we draw on recent advancements to explore their application and utility. These case studies mark a significant step forward in moving from potential to actual S2S forecasting applications. We show that by placing user needs at the forefront of S2S forecast development—demonstrating both skill and utility across sectors—this dialogue can be used to help promote and accelerate the awareness, value, and cogeneration of S2S forecasts. We also highlight that while S2S forecasts are increasingly gaining interest among users, incorporating probabilistic S2S forecasts into existing decision-making operations is not trivial. Nevertheless, S2S forecasting represents a significant opportunity to generate useful, usable, and actionable forecast applications for and with users that will increasingly unlock the potential of this forecasting time scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

California Consumers’ Beliefs and Trust in Electric Utilities

The authors use survey and interview data from California homeowners to understand customers’ trust in their utility company. The authors find that customers’ beliefs about the reliability of electricity do not predict trust. Instead, what matters are beliefs that the utility company does a bad job managing customer service, costs, and wildfires. Distrust among survey respondents aligns with interview participants’ descriptions of utility companies as powerful, greedy monopolies that benefit themselves at the expense of helpless consumers. These results have implications for the energy transition and, more generally, understanding potential challenges experienced by technocratic institutions.

Horne, Christine↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Multi-Armed Bayesian Ordinal Outcome Utility-Based Sequential Trial with a Pairwise Null Clustering Prior

A multi-armed trial based on ordinal outcomes is proposed that leverages a flexible non-proportional odds cumulative logit model and numerical utility scores for each outcome to determine treatment optimality. This trial design uses a Bayesian clustering prior on the treatment effects that encourages the pairwise null hypothesis of no differences between treatments. A group sequential design is proposed to determine which treatments are clinically different with an adaptive decision boundary that becomes more aggressive as the sample size or clinical significance grows, or the number of active treatments decreases. A simulation study is conducted for 3 and 5 treatment arms, which shows that the design has superior operating characteristics (family wise error rate, generalized power, average sample size) compared to utility designs that do not allow clustering, a frequentist proportional odds model, or a permutation test based on empirical mean utilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

SMC 2021 : Analyzing Resource Utilization and User Behavior on Titan Supercomputer

Resource utilization statistics of submitted jobs on a supercomputer can help us understand how users from various scientific domains use HPC platforms and better design a job scheduler. We explore to generate insight regarding workload distribution and usage pattern domains from job scheduler trace, GPU failure information, and project-specific information collected from Titan supercomputer. Furthermore, we want to know how the scheduler performance varies over time and how the users' scheduling behavior changes following a system failure. These observations have the potential to provide valuable insight, which is helpful to prepare for system failures. These practices will help us develop and apply novel machine learning algorithms in understanding system behavior, requirement, and better scheduling of HPC systems. There are two datasets, RUR and GPU. RUR: This dataset is the job scheduler traces collected from the Titan supercomputerfrom 01/01/2015 to 07/31/2019 (2015.csv - 2019.csv). These were collected usingResource Utilization Report (RUR), a Cray-developed resource-usage data collectionand reporting system. It contains the usage information of its critical resources (CPU,Memory, GPU, and I/O) of each running job on Titan during that period [2]. ProjectAreas: Every job is associated with a project ID. TheProjectAreas.csvdatasetprovides a mapping of the project ID to its domain science. GPU: There have been some hardware-related issues in the GPUs in Titan that caused some GPUs to fail, sometimes irrecoverably during some job runs. This dataset provides information regarding these failures during the execution of the submitted jobs. GPUs on Titan are uniquely identified by a serial number (SN), and they are installed in a location. A GPU can be installed in a location, then removed from that location following a failure, and then re-installed in a different location after fixing the problem. If the failure can't be recovered, the GPU might be removed entirely from Titan. There are two prominent types of failures that resulted in the removal of GPUs from Titan: Double Bit Error (DBE) and Out of the Bus (OTB). The dataset (gc_full.csv) has the following fields: 1. SN : Serial number of a GPU 2. location : The location where it is installed 3. insert : The time when it was inserted into that location 4. remove : The time when it was removed from that location 5. duration : Amount of time the GPU spent in this location 6. out : If the device was taken out entirely w/o a re-installment into a new location. 7. event : If the GPU was taken out entirely, the reason for its removal. To learn more about this dataset, please refer to the git repositoryhttps://github.com/olcf/TitanGPULifeand the related publication [1]. References [1] George Ostrouchov, Don Maxwell, Rizwan A Ashraf, Christian Engelmann, MallikarjunShankar, and James H Rogers. Gpu lifetimes on titan supercomputer: Survival analysisand reliability. InSC20: International Conference for High Performance Computing,Networking, Storage and Analysis, pages 1-14. IEEE, 2020. [2] Feiyi Wang, Sarp Oral, Satyabrata Sen, and Neena Imam. Learning from five-yearresource-utilization data of titan system. In2019 IEEE International Conference onCluster Computing (CLUSTER), pages 1-6. IEEE, 2019.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sandia GNU Radio Utilities

The Sandia Utilities form an RF toolkit extending the GNU Radio framework for straightforward interaction with bursty RF systems which can be cumbersome using built in capabilities of the framework or other open source extensions. Motivated by the abstract exercise of responding to a modulated burst of information with a unique modulated burst of information, the Sandia Utilities provide several dozen additional debug and signal processing blocks through four software modules. These blocks manifest their utility through a new general concept of operation for GNU Radio applications and extend many existing streaming capabilities to the PDU-based message passing API. Using these concepts and tools, it is straightforward to develop software capabilities to interact with existing and new bursty RF devices.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Performance Metrics to Evaluate Utility Resilience Investments

In 2019, Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) contracted Synapse Energy Economics (Synapse) to research the integration of community and electric grid resilience investment planning as part of the Designing Resilient Communities (DRC): A Consequence-Based Approach for Grid Investment project. Synapse produced a series of reports to explore the challenges and opportunities in several key areas, including benefit-cost analysis (BCA), performance metrics, microgrids, and regulatory mechanisms. This report focuses on BCA. BCA is an approach that electric utilities, electric utility regulators, and communities can use to evaluate the costs and benefits of a wide range of grid resilience investments in a comprehensive and consistent way. While BCA is regularly applied to some types of grid investments, application of BCA to grid resilience investments is in the early stages of development. Though resilience is increasingly cited in connection with grid investment proposals and plans, the resilience- related costs and benefits of grid resilience investments are typically not fully identified, infrequently quantified, and almost never monetized. Without complete assessments of costs and benefits, regulators can be hesitant to approve some types of grid resilience investments. This report provides the first application of the framework developed in the 2020 National Standard Practice Manual for Benefit-Cost Analysis of Distributed Energy Resources (NSPM for DERs) to grid resilience investments. We provide guidance on next steps for implementation to enable grid resilience investments to receive due consideration. We suggest developing BCA principles and standards for jurisdiction-specific BCA tests. We also recommend identifying the resilience impacts of the investments and quantification of these impacts by establishing utility performance metrics for resilience. Proactive integration of grid resilience investments into existing regulatory processes and practices can increase the capacity of jurisdictions to respond to and recover from the consequences of extreme events. 1 National Energy Screening Project. 2020. National Standard Practice Manual for Benefit-Cost Analysis of Distributed Energy Resources.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Understanding Your Utility Bills: Natural Gas

As a fossil fuel NG is a colorless and odorless gas in its natural state and is one of the cleanest burning hydrocarbons. The factors that contribute to the popularity of natural gas in the US manufacturing sector include ease of availability, clean burning properties, market deregulation, and increased domestic production. Analyzing natural gas (NG) bills can sometimes pose unique problems. Learning to read your utility bills and understand why your utility charges different fees is critical in maximizing your cost savings through energy efficiency. A key to creating a baseline is collecting and analyzing natural gas utility data. Historical data from NG bills can identify trends and help to find the baseline usage for a manufacturing operation. This guide intends to help Better Plant Program partners in understanding natural gas bills and analyzing usage to reduce costs. The guide focuses on natural gas production and transportation, understanding key charges on bills, different rate structures, and saving opportunities. A fictitious worked out example in the final section demonstrates how readers could go about analyzing natural gas bills.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Advancing Equity in Utility Regulation

Increasingly, states are recognizing equity as a goal of utility regulation, going beyond traditionally stated objectives to ensure that electricity systems are reliable, safe, and fairly priced. State initiatives are critical not only to address historical inequities, but to ensure equitable benefits and burdens in the transition to net-zero emissions by 2050. This report provides four perspectives on advancing equity in electric utility regulation, from representatives of energy justice and consumer organizations and a leading utility in this area. The authors provide recommendations related to regulatory issues such as stakeholder engagement, defining "public interest," intervenor funding, electricity infrastructure siting, access to distributed energy technologies, consumer protections, bill affordability programs, rate design, program design, and metrics to track and evaluate results of policies, regulations, and programs intended to deliver equitable outcomes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Processing of SOFC Anodes for Enhanced Intermediate Temperature Catalytic Activity at High Fuel Utilization (Final Report)

The overall objective was to infiltrate anodes with nanoparticle catalysts so that anode catalytic performance can be improved as anode operation temperature is reduced from 800°C to intermediate temperatures of 700°C and 600°C and as anode fuel utilization is increased. The addition of nickel nanoparticle catalysts into the anode improves performance by providing additional triple phase boundaries (TPBs), increasing the density of electrochemical reaction sites. To achieve this goal, both liquid phase and vapor phase methods for depositing nickel nanoparticles in the anode active layer, the region of the anode near the electrolyte where the electrochemical reaction occurs. It is imperative that nanoparticles are stable against coarsening during long-term operation, so the mechanisms and kinetics of nanoparticle stability during cell operation will be investigated. Finally, priority is given to processes that are scalable and easily transferable to industry, leveraging existing Ni-YSZ cermet anode technology. Utilizing nickel nanoparticles at different temperatures has different considerations that will be addressed. At the upper end of the intermediate temperature range (800°C), it is important that performance improvement is maintained over long periods by mitigating the instability of nanoparticles. At the middle of the temperature range (700°C), it is important that performance improvement is maintained at high fuel utilizations. At the lower end of the temperature range (600°C), where the performance of cells is poor due to increased resistances, it is important to improve anode performance by significantly increasing the electrochemical reaction site density, while nanoparticle durability is less of an issue. Finally, the objective was to explore mixed ionic and electronic (MIEC) nanoparticle catalysts like GDC to see if 2-phase boundaries can be created to increase the electrochemical reactions at the anode.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Role of State Utility Regulators in a Just and Reasonable Energy Transition: Examining Regulatory Approaches to the Economic Impacts of Coal Retirements

The ongoing trend of coal retirements has disproportionately affected the socioeconomic health of communities where power plants are located. For many public utility commissions, these impacts have led to important questions around the scope of PUCs’ statutory authority to analyze, consider and mitigate losses to host communities within their role as utility regulators. Due largely to variations in state legislative charges, commissions have taken different approaches to articulating what lies within the public interest.This report examines the authority of PUCs across the country to consider non-energy economic impacts beyond direct ratepayer effects, and summarizes approaches that PUCs, utilities and other stakeholders have used to mitigate the economic fallout of coal retirements, specifically.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2022

Utilization of the LMP Methodology in Support of the VTR Conceptual Safety Design Report

The Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) is a fast spectrum test reactor currently being developed in the United States under the direction of the US Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Nuclear Energy. The VTR is utilizing a risk-informed performance-based (RIPB) approach for design support and authorization by the DOE, derived from recent efforts by the US industry led Licensing Modernization Project (LMP). This document contains an overview of the implementation of the LMP approach in support of the VTR Conceptual Safety Design Report (CSDR). The work reported here is the result of studies supporting a VTR conceptual design, cost, and schedule estimate for DOE-NE to make a decision on procurement. As such, it is preliminary. The VTR RIPB authorization approach utilizes information from the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), coupled with deterministic analyses, to aid in decision-making regarding the identification and categorization of safety basis events (SBEs), the classification of structures, systems, and components (SSCs), and the evaluation of defense-in-depth (DID) adequacy. As part of initial reactor design efforts, a VTR conceptual design PRA was developed to support the RIPB process, which focused on at-power internal events, with scoping analyses for seismic and sodium fire hazards. In addition to supporting numerous design studies, preliminary results from the RIPB approach and the VTR conceptual design PRA were utilized as the basis of the VTR CSDR. The initial identification and categorization of SBEs, SSC classification, and DID evaluation were contained within the CSDR, which was submitted to DOE in 2019 as part of the CD-1 submittal package. Following review, DOE approved the CSDR in April 2020 and the CD-1 package in late 2020. Valuable experience was gained through the implementation of the RIPB approach for design and authorization during the VTR conceptual design phase, which is summarized in this document. To the extent possible, this experience has been shared with the advanced reactor industry, through publications and participation in licensing tabletops, in addition to informing DOE:NE advanced reactor regulatory development efforts. Furthermore, the approval of the CSDR by the DOE as part of CD-1 represents a significant milestone in the use of RIPB approaches for advanced reactor licensing.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Improving Solar and Solar+Storage Screening Techniques to Reduce Utility Interconnection Time and Costs (Final Technical Report)

Residential PV installations have increased rapidly over the last decade, and the increased application volume has caused permitting delays and lower overall adoption rates. In this project, we developed and evaluated whether data-driven secondary modeling and screening techniques can help utilities assess customer applications more accurately than traditional screening shortcuts. Secondary topologies are predicted using decision trees and commonly available information, such as service transformer, customer, and street locations. Conductors were predicted using a logistic regression method based on real world object (RWO) types, service transformer ratings, conductor length, and distance to transformer. After developing the combined primary and secondary distribution network model, hosting capacity results were used to train a random forest model to predict the pass/fail likelihood of a customer application. Powerflow based models with predicted secondaries and data-driven methods both increased the screening success rate, relative to common utility heuristics, by as much as 55 percentage points. Data-driven screening techniques were described by one utility as a "right-sized" approach for residential customers given the low-risk of small errors and the high-cost of accurate modeling.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Review of Water and Climate Change Analysis in Electric Utility Integrated Resource Planning

The purpose of this paper is to examine the extent to which electric utility integrated resource plans (IRPs) evaluate the impact of water constraints on electric generation resource portfolios and the extent to which IRPs consider the impacts of climate change to generation and loads. This white paper reviewed 30 IRPs to determine best practices with respect to analyzing and reporting on potential water-based and climate change risks within the integrated resource planning process. Best practices from electric utility IRPs are identified and additional recommendations and considerations are put forth. In recent years, thermal generating facilities have experienced challenges with water availability: a shortage of cooling water, conditions in which incoming cooling water is too warm for optimal operation, and/or water discharge temperatures exceeding permit limits. S&P Global Market Intelligence recently reported on a study that identified for the year 2030, 98.2 gigawatts (GW) of coal capacity at risk due to water stress. Climate change effects on hydrological cycles may adjust the timing, temperature, and volume of water availability for thermal electric cooling and for hydropower generation, which could further exacerbate the frequency and duration of operational constraints. Climate change can also impact the timing and intensity of electric loads that utilities must serve, most notably for heating and cooling.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Value Flows in Utility Rate Structures

As the increased adoption of distributed energy resources continues to challenge flat utility rate structures, time-varying rates and more dynamic mechanisms like transactive energy systems can better leverage customer-sited distributed energy resources to provide grid services. However, adopting new utility policies can be a timely process and requires a high level of transparency into the energy system. A wide range of stakeholders must understand who may be affected by policy changes and how. This work employs the valuation methodology developed under Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Transactive Systems Program to outline the functional differences in value flow under a series of conventional rate structures and a transactive energy system. The resulting value model illustrates the nuances that arise and highlights future avenues of work that will be necessary as utilities across the country continue to develop new rate structures and market mechanisms.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Clean Energy Microgrids: Considerations for State Energy Offices and Public Utility Commissions to Increase Resilience, Reduce Emissions, and Improve Affordability

In fall 2019, the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) and the National Association of State Energy Officials (NASEO) initiated a joint Microgrids State Working Group (MSWG), funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Electricity (OE). The MSWG aims to bring together NARUC and NASEO members to explore the capabilities, costs, and benefits of microgrids; discuss barriers to microgrid development; and develop strategies to plan, finance, and deploy microgrids to improve resilience. This report, Clean Energy Microgrids: Considerations for State Energy Offices and Public Utility Commissions to Increase Resilience, Reduce Emissions, and Improve Affordability, focuses specifically on how clean energy microgrids can achieve both resilience and clean energy benefits. The paper provides an overview of the challenges faced by clean energy microgrids, outlines benefits that clean energy microgrids can provide, and details economic and cost considerations for the development of clean energy microgrid projects. Outlined in the paper are the necessary technological components of a clean energy microgrid, including generation, storage, energy efficiency measures, and smart controls. Current technologies are highlighted, along with potential configurations of clean technologies that are approaching cost competitiveness with commercially available options. The paper concludes with both policy and regulatory considerations for State Energy Offices and Public Utility Commissions to enhance the development and deployment of clean energy microgrids. Although it touches on the clean energy microgrids’ role in integrating distributed energy resources (DERs) into the larger grid, this is not the focus of this paper.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Models for Incorporating Equity in Transportation Electrification Considerations for Public Utility Regulators, An addendum to the NARUC report, Electric Vehicles: Key Trends, Issues, and Considerations for State Regulators

Momentum for the electric vehicle (EV) transition is well underway, and the utility sector plays an important role in supporting its success. For frontline communities, the transition offers a promising solution to improve environmental and public health outcomes, economic development, affordability, and transit equity. However, the transition will need to involve care and intention to ensure that the needs of underserved communities are prioritized throughout the planning, decision-making, and implementation processes. States have taken the lead in some cases, as profiled in Box 6. Whether driven by state commissions or utilities themselves, utilities have a range of options available to ensure equity is central in their transportation electrification plans and programs by drawing from a variety of existing and emerging experiences, as summarized in Table 1.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Models for Incorporating Equity in Transportation Electrification Considerations for Public Utility Regulators, An addendum to the NARUC report, Electric Vehicles: Key Trends, Issues, and Considerations for State Regulators (2019)

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Microalgae Biomass Production for Utilization of CO2 and Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Microalgal cultivation processes for production of foods, feeds, fuels, fertilizers and other bioproducts and wastewater treatment are being considered for reducing CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions. Major differences between microalgae and higher plant biomass cultivation are include their potential for much higher productivities, their higher content of major (N-P-K) and minor nutrients, and the challenge of harvesting such microscopic plants. Most critical, microalgal mass cultures, unlike higher plants, currently require fertilization with concentrated sources of CO2. As practically all of the C fixed into algal biomass will be re-emitted into the atmosphere in short order, algae processes do not sequester carbon. Their potential for CO2 emissions reductions must thus be based on comparisons with current technologies for the production of competing products, such as biofuels or animal feeds, or in wastewater treatment. Further, due to economic limitations to flue gas transport (3 to 12 % CO2), as well as highly variable diurnal and seasonal CO2 utilization and limited land and water availability near most CO2 sources, only a small fraction of waste CO2 emissions will be directly utilizeable for microalgae biomass production. However, for long-distance transport, flue gas CO2 capture by chemical processes would greatly increase the costs of flue gas utilization. More concentrated, sources of CO2 from refineries, fertilizer, chemical plants, and fermentations are available, but are also very limited relative to the quantities required for commodity production. Microalgae can also be cultivated on organic wastes, which provide both nutrients (N, P, K, etc.) and organic and inorganic carbon for algal growth, reducing greenhouse gas emissions compared to conventional treatment processes. To maximize the potential for algae biomass production and CO2 utilization, direct capture of CO2 from air will be required. This could be accomplished with the algal cultivation process itself in large open-raceway ponds, through chemical and biological enhancements of CO2 transfer into algal cutures. The relative productivities, economics, greenhouse gas balances, and resource potentials of these alternative CO2 sources for large-scale production of microalgae will be reviewed.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗