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NASA NTRS1997

Analysis of Mars Pathfinder Entry Data, Aerothermal Heating, and Heat Shield Material Response

The Mars Pathfinder heatshield contained several thermocouples and resistance thermometers. A description of the experiment, the entry data, and analysis of the entry environment and material response is presented. In particular, the analysis addresses uncertainties of the data and the fluid dynamics and material response models. The calculations use the latest trajectory and atmosphere reconstructions for the Pathfinder entry. A modified version of the GIANTS code is used for CFD (computational fluid dynamics) analyses, and FIAT is used for material response. The material response and flowfield are coupled appropriately. Three different material response models are considered. The analysis of Pathfinder entry data for validation of aerothermal heating and material response models is complicated by model uncertainties and unanticipated data-acquisition and processing problems. We will discuss these issues as well as ramifications of the data and analysis for future Mars missions.

Milos, Frank↗

NASA NTRS2008

Figures of Merit for Control Verification

This paper proposes a methodology for evaluating a controller's ability to satisfy a set of closed-loop specifications when the plant has an arbitrary functional dependency on uncertain parameters. Control verification metrics applicable to deterministic and probabilistic uncertainty models are proposed. These metrics, which result from sizing the largest uncertainty set of a given class for which the specifications are satisfied, enable systematic assessment of competing control alternatives regardless of the methods used to derive them. A particularly attractive feature of the tools derived is that their efficiency and accuracy do not depend on the robustness of the controller. This is in sharp contrast to Monte Carlo based methods where the number of simulations required to accurately approximate the failure probability grows exponentially with its closeness to zero. This framework allows for the integration of complex, high-fidelity simulations of the integrated system and only requires standard optimization algorithms for its implementation.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards an Optimal Estimation Retrieval of Cirrus Cloud Optical and Microphysical Properties Using Hyperspectral Shortwave Instruments and A Fast Radiative Transfer Algorithm

Cirrus cloud retrieval products (here, cloud optical depth, effective particle size, and cloud top height) are important inputs into numerical weather and climate models. Uncertainties in such retrieval products, as a matter of course, propagate downstream, impacting model calculations. Improvements in high-quality global cirrus cloud optical and microphysical data products from satellite observations are needed to understand and reduce retrieval uncertainties. Hyperspectral instruments produce high-resolution and information-dense radiance spectra, thus offering the opportunity to reduce uncertainties in retrieval products. An optimal estimation-based cirrus cloud optical and microphysical product retrieval is under development for the NASA Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and the Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) instruments, and the forthcoming Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory Pathfinder (CLARREO-Pathfinder). The spectral coverage of all three instruments includes the ultraviolet, visible, and near-infrared. In this study a very fast radiative transfer model, the Principal Component-based Radiative Transfer Model in the solar spectral region (PCRTM-Solar), is used for forward modeling computations. This will reduce the computational burden in the forward radiance and Jacobian calculations as the cost function is minimized, enabling the entire AVIRIS, EMIT, and CLARREO-Pathfinder spectral range to be used in the optimal estimation framework. Using the entire spectrum will maximize the information content, resulting in a more robust and more accurate retrieval. As a first step, the retrieval is being designed for single layer ice clouds over open ocean water. Preliminary results will be shown.

Jeffrey Mast↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty in Servicing and Assembly Tasks for Space Robotic Manipulators

This presentation will discuss a subset of the sources of uncertainty that impact autonomous in-space servicing, assembly, and manufacturing missions. These include robotic manipulator modeling uncertainties in both kinematics and dynamics, perception error associated machine learning models for pose estimation, and sensor noise. Mitigation strategies will be discussed including the incorporation of capture envelopes in the design of robotic tools and selection of robot goal poses to minimize end-effector sensitivity in manipulators with redundant degrees of freedom.

robotics↗

NASA NTRS2011

Space Radiation Cancer, Circulatory Disease and CNS Risks for Near Earth Asteroid and Mars Missions: Uncertainty Estimates for Never-Smokers

The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are a major limitation to the length of space missions and the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced cancer death (REID), and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals after propagating the error from all model factors (environment and organ exposure, risk coefficients, dose-rate modifiers, and quality factors). Because there are potentially significant late mortality risks from diseases of the circulatory system and central nervous system (CNS) which are less well defined than cancer risks, the cancer REID limit is not necessarily conservative. In this report, we discuss estimates of lifetime risks from space radiation and new estimates of model uncertainties are described. The key updates to the NASA risk projection model are: 1) Revised values for low LET risk coefficients for tissue specific cancer incidence, with incidence rates transported to an average U.S. population to estimate the probability of Risk of Exposure Induced Cancer (REIC) and REID. 2) An analysis of smoking attributable cancer risks for never-smokers that shows significantly reduced lung cancer risk as well as overall cancer risks from radiation compared to risk estimated for the average U.S. population. 3) Derivation of track structure based quality functions depends on particle fluence, charge number, Z and kinetic energy, E. 4) The assignment of a smaller maximum in quality function for leukemia than for solid cancers. 5) The use of the ICRP tissue weights is shown to over-estimate cancer risks from SPEs by a factor of 2 or more. Summing cancer risks for each tissue is recommended as a more accurate approach to estimate SPE cancer risks. 6) Additional considerations on circulatory and CNS disease risks. Our analysis shows that an individual s history of smoking exposure has a larger impact on GCR risk estimates than amounts of radiation shielding or age at exposure (amongst adults). Risks for never-smokers compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for never-smokers, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity and esophagus, and leukemia. The relative contribution of CNS risks to the overall space radiation detriment is potentially increased for never-smokers such as most astronauts. Problems in estimating risks for former smokers and the influence of second-hand smoke are discussed. Compared to the LET approximation, the new track structure derived radiation quality functions lead to a reduced risk for relativistic energy particles and increased risks for intermediate energy particles. Revised estimates for the number of safe days in space at solar minimum for heavy shielding conditions are described for never-smokers and the average U.S. population. Results show that missions to near Earth asteroids (NEA) or Mars violate NASA's radiation safety standards with the current levels of uncertainties. Greater improvements in risk estimates for never-smokers are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Aircraft System Noise Prediction Uncertainty Quantification for a Hybrid Wing Body Subsonic Transport Concept

Aircraft system level noise prediction for advanced, unconventional concepts has undergone significant improvement over the past two decades. The prediction modeling uncertainty must be quantified so that potential benefits of unconventional configurations, which are outside of the range of empirical models, can be reliably assessed. This paper builds on previous work in an effort to improve estimates of element prediction uncertainties where the prediction methodology has been improved, or new experimental validation data are available, to provide an estimate of the system level uncertainty in the prediction process. In general, the uncertainty of the prediction will be strongly dependent on the aircraft configuration as well as which technologies are integrated. While the quantitative uncertainty values contained here are specific to the hybrid wing body design presented, the underlying process is the same regardless of configuration. A refined process for determining the uncertainty for each element of the noise prediction is detailed in this paper. The system level uncertainty in the prediction of the aircraft noise is determined at the three certification points, using a Monte Carlo method. Comparisons with previous work show a reduction of 1 EPNdB in the 95%coverage interval of the cumulative noise level. The largest impediment for continued reduction in uncertainty for the hybrid wing body concept is the need for improved modeling and validation experiments for fan noise, propulsion airframe aeroacoustic effects, and the Krueger flap, which comprise the bulk of the uncertainty in the cumulative certification noise level.

June, Jason C.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Sensitivity of an atmospheric photochemistry model to chlorine perturbations including consideration of uncertainty propagation

Models of stratospheric photochemistry are generally tested by comparing their predictions for the composition of the present atmosphere with measurements of species concentrations. These models are then used to make predictions of the atmospheric sensitivity to perturbations. Here the problem of the sensitivity of such a model to chlorine perturbations ranging from the present influx of chlorine-containing compounds to several times that influx is addressed. The effects of uncertainties in input parameters, including reaction rate coefficients, cross sections, solar fluxes, and boundary conditions, are evaluated using a Monte Carlo method in which the values of the input parameters are randomly selected. The results are probability distributions for present atmosheric concentrations and for calculated perturbations due to chlorine from fluorocarbons. For more than 300 Monte Carlo runs the calculated ozone perturbation for continued emission of fluorocarbons at today's rates had a mean value of -6.2 percent, with a 1-sigma width of 5.5 percent. Using the same runs but only allowing the cases in which the calculated present atmosphere values of NO, NO2, and ClO at 25 km altitude fell within the range of measurements yielded a mean ozone depletion of -3 percent, with a 1-sigma deviation of 2.2 percent. The model showed a nonlinear behavior as a function of added fluorocarbons. The mean of the Monte Carlo runs was less nonlinear than the model run using mean value of the input parameters.

Stolarski, R. S.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Numerical and experimental evaluation for single-axis control of an LSS laboratory model

One of the major problems of LSS attitude control design stems from the modeling uncertainties due to modal truncation errors and modal parameter estimation errors. This modeling problem is investigated by evaluating poles and zeros of the frequency response functions, described in terms of constrained or unconstrained modes. The frequency domain approach is utilized to evaluated the results of modal analyses and direct output feedback controller experiments using a simple flexible spacecraft model consisting of a rigid primary body and flexible aluminum beam(s) with a control moment gyro as an actuator. The modal data are compared under the conditions that the model is constrained as the canti-lever and it is rotationally free on a single-axis air bearing table. In addition, the open-loop responses are experimentally examined under the impulsive disturbance to the appendage. The results of the control experiments show that the first vibration mode of the appendage and the interacted rotational motion of the primary body are damped in a short time as predicted by the numerical analysis, to produce damping ratio of 10-20%.

Ohkami, Y.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Radiation model predictions and validation using LDEF satellite data

Predictions and comparisons with the radiation dose measurements on Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) by thermoluminescent dosimeters were made to evaluate the accuracy of models currently used in defining the ionizing radiation environment for low Earth orbit missions. The calculations include a detailed simulation of the radiation exposure (altitude and solar cycle variations, directional dependence) and shielding effects (three-dimensional LDEF geometry model) so that differences in the predicted and observed doses can be attributed to environment model uncertainties. The LDEF dose data are utilized to assess the accuracy of models describing the trapped proton flux, the trapped proton directionality, and the trapped electron flux.

Armstrong, T. W.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Modeling the smoky troposphere of the southeast Atlantic: a comparison to ORACLES airborne observations from September of 2016

In the southeast Atlantic, well-defined smoke plumes from Africa advect over marine boundary layer cloud decks; both are most extensive around September, when most of the smoke resides in the free troposphere. A framework is put forth for evaluating the performance of a range of global and regional atmospheric composition models against observations made during the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) airborne mission in September 2016. A strength of the comparison is a focus on the spatial distribution of a wider range of aerosol composition and optical properties than has been done previously. The sparse airborne observations are aggregated into approximately 2° grid boxes and into three vertical layers: 3–6 km, the layer from cloud top to 3 km, and the cloud-topped marine boundary layer. Simulated aerosol extensive properties suggest that the flight-day observations are reasonably representative of the regional monthly average, with systematic deviations of 30 % or less. Evaluation against observations indicates that all models have strengths and weaknesses, and there is no single model that is superior to all the others in all metrics evaluated. Whereas all six models typically place the top of the smoke layer within 0–500 m of the airborne lidar observations, the models tend to place the smoke layer bottom 300–1400 m lower than the observations. A spatial pattern emerges, in which most models underestimate the mean of most smoke quantities (black carbon, extinction, carbon monoxide) on the diagonal corridor between 16° S, 6° E, and 10° S, 0° E, in the 3–6 km layer, and overestimate them further south, closer to the coast, where less aerosol is present. Model representations of the above-cloud aerosol optical depth differ more widely. Most models overestimate the organic aerosol mass concentrations relative to those of black carbon, and with less skill, indicating model uncertainties in secondary organic aerosol processes. Regional-mean free-tropospheric model ambient single scattering albedos vary widely, between 0.83 and 0.93 compared with in situ dry measurements centered at 0.86, despite minimal impact of humidification on particulate scattering. The modeled ratios of the particulate extinction to the sum of the black carbon and organic aerosol mass concentrations (a mass extinction efficiency proxy) are typically too low and vary too little spatially, with significant inter-model differences. Most models overestimate the carbonaceous mass within the offshore boundary layer. Overall, the diversity in the model biases suggests that different model processes are responsible. The wide range of model optical properties requires further scrutiny because of their importance for radiative effect estimates.

Yohei Shinozuka↗

NASA NTRS2018

Dynamic Scheduling Under Uncertainty

Often, autonomous agents that operate in real-world environments must be able to schedule and execute actions to accomplish mission goals while being robust to uncertainty and disturbances that arise during operations. This tutorial will focus on classes of models and algorithms that have been used to enable effective, robust strategies for dynamically dispatching plans in real time. The tutorial will begin with a survey of past and current research in modeling uncertainty in planning and scheduling, as well as research in different classes of approaches to dynamic scheduling. We then focus on a general class of approaches based on executing temporal plans using graphical models of events and their temporal ordering. These approaches allow for ensuring temporal flexibility in scheduling, as well as for developing strategies for executing partially controllable plans.

Morris, Robert↗

NASA NTRS1988

Robustness margin calculation with dynamic and real parametric uncertainty

The problem of robust stability in feedback control systems with real uncertain parameters and unmodeled dynamics, where the latter takes the form of one complex block dynamic uncertainty, is considered. A robustness margin Tm is defined with respect to such model uncertainty structure and robust stability is characterized in terms of it. An algorithm to calculate Tm and the closely related multivariable stability margin km and structured singular value mu measures of robust stability is developed. It is shown that other control problems, such as robust performance for real parametric uncertainty, can also be handled in this framework.

Sideris, Athanasios↗

NASA NTRS1988

Robustness with real parametric and structured complex uncertainty

The problem of robust stability and performance in feedback control systems with n real (possibly related) uncertain parameters and structured unmodeled dynamics (the latter taking the form of m complex blocks dynamic uncertainties) is considered. A robustness margin rm is defined with respect to such model uncertainty structure and an algorithm is developed to compute it. Robust stability and performance are characterized in terms of r sub m or the structured singular value mu. An iterative procedure using the above algorithm is given to compute tight bounds on k sub m and mu. These bounds are exact for the case m = 3 or less.

Pena, Ricardo S. Sanchez↗

NASA NTRS1990

Space-based Doppler lidar sampling strategies: Algorithm development and simulated observation experiments

Lidar Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) Simulation Models (LSM) were developed to evaluate the potential impact of global wind observations on the basic understanding of the Earth's atmosphere and on the predictive skills of current forecast models (GCM and regional scale). Fully integrated top to bottom LAWS Simulation Models for global and regional scale simulations were developed. The algorithm development incorporated the effects of aerosols, water vapor, clouds, terrain, and atmospheric turbulence into the models. Other additions include a new satellite orbiter, signal processor, line of sight uncertainty model, new Multi-Paired Algorithm and wind error analysis code. An atmospheric wind field library containing control fields, meteorological fields, phenomena fields, and new European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) data was also added. The LSM was used to address some key LAWS issues and trades such as accuracy and interpretation of LAWS information, data density, signal strength, cloud obscuration, and temporal data resolution.

Emmitt, G. D.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Attribution of Stratospheric and Tropospheric Ozone Changes Between 1850 and 2014 in CMIP6 Models

We quantify the impacts of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), greenhouse gases (GHGs), and short-lived ozone precursors on ozone changes between 1850 and 2014 using single-forcing perturbation simulations from several Earth system models with interactive chemistry participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project. We present the responses of ozone to individual forcings and an attribution of changes in ozone columns and vertically resolved stratospheric and tropospheric ozone to these forcings. We find that whilst substantial ODS-induced ozone loss dominates the stratospheric ozone changes since the 1970s, in agreement with previous studies, increases in tropospheric ozone due to increases in short-lived ozone precursors and methane since the 1950s make increasingly important contributions to total column ozone (TCO) changes. Increases in methane also lead to substantial extra-tropical stratospheric ozone increases. Impacts of nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide on stratospheric ozone are significant but their impacts on TCO are small overall due to several opposing factors and are also associated with large dynamical variability. The multi-model mean (MMM) results show a clear change in the stratospheric ozone trends after 2000 due to now declining ODSs, but the trends are generally not significantly positive, except in the extra-tropical upper stratosphere, due to relatively small changes in forcing over this period combined with large model uncertainty. Although the MMM ozone compares well with the observations, the inter-model differences are large primarily due to the large differences in the models' representation of ODS-induced ozone depletion.

Halogenated ozone-depleting substances↗

NASA NTRS2018

A Component-Level Model of Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast (ADS-B)

Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast (ADS-B) is being employed in numerous peer-to-peer initiatives attempting to expand the capacity of the National Airspace System (NAS) or enable mixed operations of manned and unmanned vehicles. Safety assessments of these initiatives rely, in part, on modeling the accuracy of ADS-B in reporting the position and direction of an ownship and surrounding traffic. Frequently, these initiatives utilize a position uncertainty model that applies a reported ADS-B estimation position uncertainty (EPU) value to a Rayleigh distribution and uses a Gauss-Markov random walk to add error to the ADS-B output of a vehicle. This model of ADS-B state error is easy to implement and apply to numerous problems. However, it has a couple of draw-backs. First, the ADS-B state errors are equally probable in all directions. This is a good assumption in situations where aircraft maneuvering is not constrained. However, in situations where the aircraft maneuvering is constrained such as landing, the error distribution is likely to exhibit directionality and the non-directional model may skew results especially when assessing very low probabilities (e.g., 10(exp -9)) of catastrophic encounters. Second, the model does not account for processing latency in the receiving aircraft. NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) recently examined the feasibility of decreasing the spacing of aircraft on parallel approaches to runways separated by as little as 700 feet. For Monte-Carlo analysis using a high-fidelity simulation of a large transport, LaRC started with a Gauss-Markov model of ADS-B error but then developed a component level model of ADS-B error to increase the fidelity of results.

Madden, Michael M.↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Impact of Model and Rainfall Forcing Errors on Characterizing Soil Moisture Uncertainty in Land Surface Modeling

The contribution of rainfall forcing errors relative to model (structural and parameter) uncertainty in the prediction of soil moisture is investigated by integrating the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), forced with hydro-meteorological data, in the Oklahoma region. Rainfall-forcing uncertainty is introduced using a stochastic error model that generates ensemble rainfall fields from satellite rainfall products. The ensemble satellite rain fields are propagated through CLSM to produce soil moisture ensembles. Errors in CLSM are modeled with two different approaches: either by perturbing model parameters (representing model parameter uncertainty) or by adding randomly generated noise (representing model structure and parameter uncertainty) to the model prognostic variables. Our findings highlight that the method currently used in the NASA GEOS-5 Land Data Assimilation System to perturb CLSM variables poorly describes the uncertainty in the predicted soil moisture, even when combined with rainfall model perturbations. On the other hand, by adding model parameter perturbations to rainfall forcing perturbations, a better characterization of uncertainty in soil moisture simulations is observed. Specifically, an analysis of the rank histograms shows that the most consistent ensemble of soil moisture is obtained by combining rainfall and model parameter perturbations. When rainfall forcing and model prognostic perturbations are added, the rank histogram shows a U-shape at the domain average scale, which corresponds to a lack of variability in the forecast ensemble. The more accurate estimation of the soil moisture prediction uncertainty obtained by combining rainfall and parameter perturbations is encouraging for the application of this approach in ensemble data assimilation systems.

Maggioni, V.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Uncertainty of Wheat Water Use: Simulated Patterns and Sensitivity to Temperature and CO2

Projected global warming and population growth will reduce future water availability for agriculture. Thus, it is essential to increase the efficiency in using water to ensure crop productivity. Quantifying crop water use (WU; i.e. actual evapotranspiration) is a critical step towards this goal. Here, sixteen wheat simulation models were used to quantify sources of model uncertainty and to estimate the relative changes and variability between models for simulated WU, water use efficiency (WUE, WU per unit of grain dry mass produced), transpiration efficiency (Teff, transpiration per kg of unit of grain yield dry mass produced), grain yield, crop transpiration and soil evaporation at increased temperatures and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]). The greatest uncertainty in simulating water use, potential evapotranspiration, crop transpiration and soil evaporation was due to differences in how crop transpiration was modelled and accounted for 50 of the total variability among models. The simulation results for the sensitivity to temperature indicated that crop WU will decline with increasing temperature due to reduced growing seasons. The uncertainties in simulated crop WU, and in particularly due to uncertainties in simulating crop transpiration, were greater under conditions of increased temperatures and with high temperatures in combination with elevated atmospheric [CO2] concentrations. Hence the simulation of crop WU, and in particularly crop transpiration under higher temperature, needs to be improved and evaluated with field measurements before models can be used to simulate climate change impacts on future crop water demand.

Sensitivity↗