Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelizable Probabilistic Machine Learning and Uncertainty Quantification Capabilities

The Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) is a widely used open- source finite element software for performing multiphysics multiscale simulations in a massively parallel fashion. Recently, the computational team at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has implemented Probabilistic Machine Learning (ProbML) capabilities in MOOSE—in a parallelized fashion—and enable active learning with large-scale computational models for tasks such as surrogate model development, scale bridging, forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ), Bayesian optimization, etc. This presentation summarizes these developments in MOOSE along with demonstrations on several real applications relevant to nuclear energy. At the fundamental level, samplers like Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube, variance reduction, parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) support uncertainty propagation in both forward and inverse settings. These samplers can be integrated with the Gaussian processes (GP) suite in MOOSE, which offer several variants like scalar GPs, multi-output GPs, and deep GPs, to enable active learning. These GPs can be tuned using gradient-based optimization methods like Adam and its variants or gradient-free methods like the elliptical slice sampler (a variant of MCMC adept under Gaussian settings) for more complex covariance kernels or likelihoods whose gradient computations can be cumbersome. A variety of batch acquisition functions permit parallelized evaluation of the computational model and support different learning objectives with high efficiency like Bayesian inference, global surrogate development, optimization, etc. Furthermore, libtorch integration supports training, evaluation, and re-training of neural networks and other complex machine learning models in active learning settings. The impacts of these developments are shown on several real applications: (1) nuclear fuel inverse UQ and model inadequacy assessment using the Kennedy O’Hagan framework; (2) uncertainty aware surrogate modeling for additive manufacturing to predict field quantities; (3) nuclear reactor rare events analysis; and (4) complex fluid flow prediction using a global surrogate with quantified prediction uncertainty. Finally, the outlook of MOOSE ProbML is discussed for both outer-loop and inner-loop computations in the broad view to accelerate fuels and materials qualification, address gaps in knowledge and data, and assess new reactor/fuel systems.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Advanced Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification for Flight Dynamics; Interim Results and Challenges

As part of the NASA Vehicle Systems Safety Technologies (VSST), Assuring Safe and Effective Aircraft Control Under Hazardous Conditions (Technical Challenge #3), an effort is underway within Boeing Research and Technology (BR&T) to address Advanced Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification for Flight Dynamics (VSST1-7). The scope of the effort is to develop and evaluate advanced multidisciplinary flight dynamics modeling techniques, including integrated uncertainties, to facilitate higher fidelity response characterization of current and future aircraft configurations approaching and during loss-of-control conditions. This approach is to incorporate multiple flight dynamics modeling methods for aerodynamics, structures, and propulsion, including experimental, computational, and analytical. Also to be included are techniques for data integration and uncertainty characterization and quantification. This research shall introduce new and updated multidisciplinary modeling and simulation technologies designed to improve the ability to characterize airplane response in off-nominal flight conditions. The research shall also introduce new techniques for uncertainty modeling that will provide a unified database model comprised of multiple sources, as well as an uncertainty bounds database for each data source such that a full vehicle uncertainty analysis is possible even when approaching or beyond Loss of Control boundaries. Methodologies developed as part of this research shall be instrumental in predicting and mitigating loss of control precursors and events directly linked to causal and contributing factors, such as stall, failures, damage, or icing. The tasks will include utilizing the BR&T Water Tunnel to collect static and dynamic data to be compared to the GTM extended WT database, characterizing flight dynamics in off-nominal conditions, developing tools for structural load estimation under dynamic conditions, devising methods for integrating various modeling elements into a real-time simulation capability, generating techniques for uncertainty modeling that draw data from multiple modeling sources, and providing a unified database model that includes nominal plus increments for each flight condition. This paper presents status of testing in the BR&T water tunnel and analysis of the resulting data and efforts to characterize these data using alternative modeling methods. Program challenges and issues are also presented.

Hyde, David C.↗

Uncertainty Quantification Methodology for Sonic Boom Loudness of a Low-Boom Supersonic Concept

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of uncertainty quantification for sonic boom loudness metrics associated with the X-59 aircraft during its acoustic validation phase. The study focuses on employing advanced methodologies to characterize uncertainties in key sonic boom parameters predicted from a database derived from a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver. These methodologies include creating a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) surrogate model, which is then used to run a Monte Carlo analysis to obtain 95% uncertainty intervals for sonic boom loudness parameters across the full carpet. Atmospheric uncertainties are rigorously considered, leveraging weather models based on historical data near Edwards Air Force Base to simulate potential flight conditions. The findings include preliminary uncertainty results for the full carpet during the validation phase of the Quesst mission. Additionally, a sensitivity study reveals that the primary sources of uncertainty are humidity and cruise weight.

Laura M. White↗

Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for SPERT III E-core reactivity measurement benchmarking

The Special Power Excursion Reactor Test (SPERT) III E-core experiment is important because it provides critical data on reactor behavior under significant reactivity insertions, which is essential for validating computer simulations and ensuring the safety of modern light water reactors. Its design similarities to contemporary reactors make it a valuable resource for understanding and mitigating extreme hazards in nuclear operations. The current study details the application of formal parametric uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis to a model of the SPERT-III E-core model for zero power reactivity benchmarking. Additionally, the reactivity impact from various modeling assumptions is quantified. Overall, an conservative estimate for an uncertainty in k$_{\text{eff}}$ of $\pm$1257 was observed. A less conservative, more realistic, uncertainty estimate of $\pm$1096 pcm can be justified by the potential for various parametric uncertainties to become negligible when sampled independently across the ~1400 pins in the core. The experimental results fall within both of these uncertainty bounds. Standardized regression coefficient as well as Sobol indices are used to identify the guide tube thicknesses as the primary contributors to the uncertainty in k$_{\text{eff}}$. Overall, this study provides information on how the uncertainties in input parameters and modeling methods impact simulated k$_{\text{eff}}$ values and can be used to aid model building efforts for future code validation with the SPERT-III E-core experiment.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Kinetic model development and Bayesian uncertainty quantification for the complete reduction of Fe-based oxygen carriers with CH 4 , CO, and H 2 for chemical looping combustion

In this work, three kinetic models are developed and calibrated for the complete multi-step reduction of an Fe-based oxygen carrier (OC) particle with CH 4 , CO, and H 2 , using data from thermogravimetric analysis. The complete reduction rate profiles exhibit complex dynamics whose trajectory is significantly different depending on the reducing gas. A Bayesian model building and parameter estimation framework is applied for simultaneous parameter and model structure uncertainty quantification. The final models show excellent agreement between model predictions and calibration data, as well as new data not used for calibration (for the reduction of the OC with CH 4 ). Parameter uncertainty is quantified by determining joint posterior distribution, and model structure uncertainty is addressed by incorporating Gaussian process stochastic functions (represented by Bayesian smoothing splines) into the kinetic models. The final kinetic models with discrepancy functions are readily employable in equation-oriented simulation and optimization platforms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Uncertainty quantification of an empirical shell-model interaction using principal component analysis

Recent investigations have emphasized the importance of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in nuclear theory. Here, we carry out UQ for configuration-interaction shell-model calculations in the 1$\textit{s}$–0$\textit{d}$ valence space, investigating the sensitivity of observables to perturbations in the 66 parameters (matrix elements) of a high-quality empirical interaction. The large parameter space makes computing the corresponding Hessian numerically costly, so we compare a cost-effective approximation, using the Feynman-Hellmann theorem, to the full Hessian and find it works well. Diagonalizing the Hessian yields the principal components of the interaction: linear combinations of parameters ordered by sensitivity. This approximately decoupled distribution of parameters facilitates theoretical uncertainty propagation onto structure observables: electromagnetic transitions, Gamow-Teller decays, and dark matter-nucleus scattering matrix elements.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Clarifying trust of materials property predictions using neural networks with distribution-specific uncertainty quantification

It is critical that machine learning (ML) model predictions be trustworthy for high-throughput catalyst discovery approaches. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods allow estimation of the trustworthiness of an ML model, but these methods have not been well explored in the field of heterogeneous catalysis. Herein, we investigate different UQ methods applied to a crystal graph convolutional neural network to predict adsorption energies of molecules on alloys from the Open Catalyst 2020 dataset, the largest existing heterogeneous catalyst dataset. We apply three UQ methods to the adsorption energy predictions, namely k-fold ensembling, Monte Carlo dropout, and evidential regression. The effectiveness of each UQ method is assessed based on accuracy, sharpness, dispersion, calibration, and tightness. Evidential regression is demonstrated to be a powerful approach for rapidly obtaining tunable, competitively trustworthy UQ estimates for heterogeneous catalysis applications when using neural networks. Recalibration of model uncertainties is shown to be essential in practical screening applications of catalysts using uncertainties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Uncertainty Quantification of Inducer Eigenvalues using Conditional Assessment of Models and Modal Test of Simpler Systems

The low pressure fuel pump inducer of the new Space Launch System RS25 core stage engine operates in a highly complex environment that substantially affects its modal characteristics. Some of the more important effects are fluid-added mass resulting from operation within a light liquid (Hydrogen), and the magnification of this effect due to tight tip clearance. Since higher order cavitation has been identified as a significant harmonic driver, knowledge of the natural frequency of potentially excitable modes is critical for safe operation, but this frequency cannot be measured during the severe operational environment. A comprehensive testing and analysis program has therefore been performed over the last four years to identify the nominal value and uncertainty of the frequency by modeling and testing four simpler structures which share some of the characteristics of the operational inducer. This testing was used to assess and adjust modeling techniques and excellent correlation was achieved. Identification of the uncertainty in the inducer frequency itself was still problematic, however. This difficulty led to an investigation of Bayesian uncertainty quantification techniques, and to the application of the relatively simple technique of Multi-Variate Normal conditional distributions to calculate the inducer natural frequency uncertainty. Assumptions on prior distributions of uncertainty of the fluid-added mass and tip clearance effect are initially applied to models of each of the simple structures and the inducer itself, and these uncertainties are propagated to generate natural frequencies using design of experiments. Simple response surfaces are then created from this data in order to calculate a Covariance Matrix relating all of these natural frequencies. Finally, the results from modal test of the simple structures are considered to be observations and used to calculate the conditional variance of the desired inducer frequencies. As this method is less rigorous than more complicated Bayesian methods reported in the literature, a conservative factor is applied to the result, but the resulting uncertainty is still significantly less than originally estimated and will greatly assist certification of the inducer for use in the engine.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

Uncertainty Quantification of Inducer Natural Frequency using Conditional Assessment of Modeling and Modal Testing of Simpler Systems

The low pressure fuel pump inducer of the new Space Launch System RS25 core stage engine operates in a highly complex environment that substantially affects its modal characteristics. Some of the more important effects are fluid-added mass resulting from operation within a light liquid (Hydrogen), and the magnification of this effect due to tight tip clearance. Since higher order cavitation has been identified as a significant harmonic driver, knowledge of the natural frequency of potentially excitable modes is critical for safe operation, but this frequency cannot be measured during the severe operational environment. A comprehensive testing and analysis program has therefore been performed over the last four years to identify the nominal value and uncertainty of the frequency by modeling and testing four simpler structures which share some of the characteristics of the operational inducer. This testing was used to assess and adjust modeling techniques and excellent correlation was achieved. Identification of the uncertainty in the inducer frequency itself was still problematic, however. This difficulty led to an investigation of Bayesian uncertainty quantification techniques, and to the application of the relatively simple technique of Multi-Variate Normal conditional distributions to calculate the inducer natural frequency uncertainty. Assumptions on prior distributions of uncertainty of the fluid-added mass and tip clearance effect are initially applied to models of each of the simple structures and the inducer itself, and these uncertainties are propagated to generate natural frequencies using design of experiments. Simple response surfaces are then created from this data in order to calculate a Covariance Matrix relating all of these natural frequencies. Finally, the results from modal test of the simple structures are considered to be observations and used to calculate the conditional variance of the desired inducer frequencies. As this method is less rigorous than more complicated Bayesian methods reported in the literature, a conservative factor is applied to the result, but the resulting uncertainty is still significantly less than originally estimated and will greatly assist certification of the inducer for use in the engine.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelized probabilistic machine learning and uncertainty quantification for computational energy applications

Here, this paper presents the development and demonstration of massively parallel probabilistic machine learning (ML) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) capabilities within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), an open-source computational platform for parallel finite element and finite volume analyses. In addressing the computational expense and uncertainties inherent in complex multiphysics simulations, this paper integrates Gaussian process (GP) variants, active learning, Bayesian inverse UQ, adaptive forward UQ, Bayesian optimization, evolutionary optimization, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) within MOOSE. It also elaborates on the interaction among key MOOSE systems — Sampler, MultiApp, Reporter, and Surrogate — in enabling these capabilities. The modularity offered by these systems enables development of a multitude of probabilistic ML and UQ algorithms in MOOSE. Example code demonstrations include parallel active learning and parallel Bayesian inference via active learning. The impact of these developments is illustrated through five applications relevant to computational energy applications: UQ of nuclear fuel fission product release, using parallel active learning Bayesian inference; very rare events analysis in nuclear microreactors using active learning; advanced manufacturing process modeling using multi-output GPs (MOGPs) and dimensionality reduction; fluid flow using deep GPs (DGPs); and tritium transport model parameter optimization for fusion energy, using batch Bayesian optimization. These capabilities are part of the MOOSE framework.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Uncertainty Quantification of a Light Water Pulsed-Neutron Die-Away Experiment to Thermal Neutron Scattering Laws

Thermal neutron scattering laws are important nuclear data for many nuclear science and engineering applications. Validation helps to ensure that a thermal neutron scattering law has a high quality and often employs critical benchmarks as integral experiments. Recently, pulsed-neutron die-away benchmarks have been used as an experiment to validate thermal neutron scattering laws. Herein, we evidence how this alternative integral experiment has a high sensitivity to these nuclear data by performing an uncertainty quantification analysis. The analysis randomly sampled the nuclear model parameters associated with hydrogen bound in light water thermal neutron scattering law and sampled other nuclear data that influenced the experiment’s integral parameter (e.g., elastic scattering, absorption in hydrogen and oxygen) from their respective covariance matrices. The thermal neutron scattering law caused an uncertainty in the integral parameter that reached 2.67%, which exceeds by an order of magnitude the uncertainties induced in commonly used thermal solution critical benchmarks. The validation performed here, although limited due to a poor description of the historical experiment, indicated that the ENDF/B-VIII.0 thermal neutron scattering law well predicted the integral parameter. These results motivate further benchmark and validation efforts using pulsed-neutron die-away experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Predicting critical heat flux with uncertainty quantification and domain generalization using conditional variational autoencoders and deep neural networks

Deep generative models (DGMs) can generate synthetic data samples that closely resemble the original dataset, addressing data scarcity. In this work, we developed a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) to augment critical heat flux (CHF) data used for the 2006 Groeneveld lookup table. To compare with traditional methods, a fine-tuned deep neural network (DNN) regression model was evaluated on the same dataset. Both models achieved small mean absolute relative errors, with the CVAE showing more favorable results. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) was performed using repeated CVAE sampling and DNN ensembling. The DNN ensemble improved performance over the baseline, while the CVAE maintained consistent results with less variability and higher confidence. Both models achieved small errors inside and outside the training domain, with slightly larger errors outside. Altogether, the CVAE performed better than the DNN in predicting CHF and exhibited better uncertainty behavior.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Uncertainty quantification of the convolutional neural networks on permeability estimation from micro-CT scanned sandstone and carbonate rock images

Rock permeability is one of the most crucial properties affecting subsurface fluid flow behaviors. To accurately and robustly estimate the permeability, Digital Rock Physics, including micro-CT scanning technology and direct flow simulations on scanned images, has prevailed in recent years. Besides, machine learning techniques such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have been widely adopted and achieved success in permeability estimations directly from rock images. However, existing ML methods used for permeability estimation from rock images lack uncertainty quantification that causes unreliable predictions and overconfident estimations on out-of-distribution (OOD) samples. Here, in this work, we propose a PI3NN-CNN framework to address this problem. PI3NN-CNN consists of a CNN model for absolute permeability estimation and a PI3NN method to quantify the estimation uncertainty. It is able to quantify the uncertainty for in-distribution (InD) data with a desired confidence level, and identify OOD samples to avoid overconfident predictions. We demonstrate the method using micro-CT scanned images from two sandstone and two carbonate rocks. We found that PI3NN-CNN generates accurate predictions for InD samples, while producing high-quality prediction uncertainties regardless of the prediction accuracy. Meanwhile, PI3NN-CNN identifies OOD samples using its special network initialization scheme. The unique feature of PI3NN-CNN makes it applicable to more complex real-world image-based data for robust learning and predictions without overconfident estimations when the ground-truth information is unavailable.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

5-10 Years Cross-cutting Priorities on the Topic of Nuclear Data Covariances and Uncertainty Quantification for Users

The goal of this meeting was to draft a whitepaper on prioritized nuclear data covariance and uncertainty quantification needs impacting users for the next 5 to 10 years. These needs are described herein in an actionable context (i.e., a high-level plan is given to address them), and are feasible for the community to tackle the need (i.e., high-level idea of funding is provided). It should be noted that each of these proposed projects are ideal for training new nuclear data evaluators who are also integrated into application needs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Data Imbalance, Uncertainty Quantification, and Transfer Learning in Data‐Driven Parameterizations: Lessons From the Emulation of Gravity Wave Momentum Transport in WACCM

Abstract Neural networks (NNs) are increasingly used for data‐driven subgrid‐scale parameterizations in weather and climate models. While NNs are powerful tools for learning complex non‐linear relationships from data, there are several challenges in using them for parameterizations. Three of these challenges are (a) data imbalance related to learning rare, often large‐amplitude, samples; (b) uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the predictions to provide an accuracy indicator; and (c) generalization to other climates, for example, those with different radiative forcings. Here, we examine the performance of methods for addressing these challenges using NN‐based emulators of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) physics‐based gravity wave (GW) parameterizations as a test case. WACCM has complex, state‐of‐the‐art parameterizations for orography‐, convection‐, and front‐driven GWs. Convection‐ and orography‐driven GWs have significant data imbalance due to the absence of convection or orography in most grid points. We address data imbalance using resampling and/or weighted loss functions, enabling the successful emulation of parameterizations for all three sources. We demonstrate that three UQ methods (Bayesian NNs, variational auto‐encoders, and dropouts) provide ensemble spreads that correspond to accuracy during testing, offering criteria for identifying when an NN gives inaccurate predictions. Finally, we show that the accuracy of these NNs decreases for a warmer climate (4 × CO 2 ). However, their performance is significantly improved by applying transfer learning, for example, re‐training only one layer using ∼1% new data from the warmer climate. The findings of this study offer insights for developing reliable and generalizable data‐driven parameterizations for various processes, including (but not limited to) GWs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification on the KRUSTY Microreactor Design Using GRIFFIN Neutron Transport Code [Poster]

Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and INL have developed a GRIFFIN steady state neutronics model for the multiphysics simulations of the Kilopower Reactor Using Sterling TechnologY (KRUSTY) microreactor in the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). The reliability of such deterministic neutronics models can be validated by comparing with computations from Monte Carlo codes (e.g. MCNP, SERPENT, OpenMC, Shift, etc). Furthermore, potential modeling/design improvements can be identified by incorporating uncertainty quantification (UQ), which can be performed by MOOSE’s Stochastic Tools Module (STM). KRUSTY is a prototype for a 5-kW thermal nuclear-powered space reactor. Its primary components consist of nuclear fuel, heat pipes, a control rod, a reflector, and the shielding. The fuel consists of 3 stacked U-7.65Mo cylinders with a hole in the center for the control rod. 8 liquid sodium heat pipes transfer fission energy from the solid fuel block to the Sterling power conversion system where the energy is extracted, and the cooled sodium flows back to the core via capillary action . The movable Boron Carbide control rod regulates the neutron population during startup or when a reactor temperature boost is needed . The beryllium oxide reflector is in 3 places in the reactor; it surrounds the core axially, it lies beneath the core on a platen, and it is present in the shim. The axial and lower reflectors rest on an adjustable stainless-steel platen that moves upward to cover the fuel and help the reactor reach criticality. Lastly, radial stainless steel surrounds the core offering protection from radiation exposure .

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Context-aware learning of hierarchies of low-fidelity models for multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification

Multi-fidelity Monte Carlo methods leverage low-fidelity and surrogate models for variance reduction to make tractable uncertainty quantification even when numerically simulating the physical systems of interest with high-fidelity models is computationally expensive. This work proposes a context-aware multi-fidelity Monte Carlo method that optimally balances the costs of training low-fidelity models with the costs of Monte Carlo sampling. It generalizes the previously developed context-aware bi-fidelity Monte Carlo method to hierarchies of multiple models and to more general types of low-fidelity models. When training low-fidelity models, the proposed approach takes into account the context in which the learned low-fidelity models will be used, namely for variance reduction in Monte Carlo estimation, which allows it to find optimal trade-offs between training and sampling to minimize upper bounds of the mean-squared errors of the estimators for given computational budgets. This is in stark contrast to traditional surrogate modeling and model reduction techniques that construct low-fidelity models with the primary goal of approximating well the high-fidelity model outputs and typically ignore the context in which the learned models will be used in upstream tasks. Further, the proposed context-aware multi-fidelity Monte Carlo method applies to hierarchies of a wide range of types of low-fidelity models such as sparse-grid and deep-network models. Numerical experiments with the gyrokinetic simulation code Gene show speedups of up to two orders of magnitude compared to standard estimators when quantifying uncertainties in small-scale fluctuations in confined plasma in fusion reactors. This corresponds to a runtime reduction from 72 days to four hours on one node of the Lonestar6 supercomputer at the Texas Advanced Computing Center.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Space-Time Reduced-Order Modeling for Uncertainty Quantification

This work focuses on the space-time reduced-order modeling (ROM) method for solving large-scale uncertainty quantification (UQ) problems with multiple random coefficients. In contrast with the traditional space ROM approach, which performs dimension reduction in the spatial dimension, the space-time ROM approach performs dimension reduction on both the spatial and temporal domains, and thus enables accurate approximate solutions at a low cost. We incorporate the space-time ROM strategy with various classical stochastic UQ propagation methods such as stochastic Galerkin and Monte Carlo. Numerical results demonstrate that our methodology has significant computational advantages compared to state-of-the-art ROM approaches. By testing the approximation errors, we show that there is no obvious loss of simulation accuracy for space-time ROM given its high computational efficiency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗