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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2019

Impacts of U.S. Carbon Tariffs on China’s Foreign Trade and Social Welfare

A recursive multisector dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model simulates the economic impacts of carbon tariffs, as proposed by the USA, ranging from $\$40/t to $\$60/t CO 2 . We examine a carbon tax and export subsidy as response policies to the U.S. carbon tariff, respectively. The dynamic model shows the possible impacts of these policies on China’s economic structure, carbon emissions, and social welfare from 2020 to 2030. Simulations show that a carbon tariff changes the structure of China’s exports and promotes trade diversion from the USA to other countries and regions. A domestic carbon tax and subsidy policy can dampen the adverse impacts of carbon tariffs on trade. A carbon tax shows an effective impact on increasing clean energy use, decreasing the carbon intensity of output, and reducing carbon emissions. A subsidy on exports to the USA reduces the adverse impact of a carbon tariff on China’s social welfare in the short term.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1996

Risk/Requirements Trade-off Guidelines for Low Cost Satellite Systems

The accelerating trend toward faster, better, cheaper missions places increasing emphasis on the trade-offs between requirements and risk to reduce cost and development times, while still improving quality and reliability. The Risk/Requirement Trade-off Guidelines discussed in this paper are part of an integrated approach to address the main issues by focusing on the sum of prevention, analysis, control, or test (PACT) processes.

risk cost trade-offs failure modes↗

NASA NTRS2015

Techniques for Conducting Effective Concept Design and Design-to-Cost Trade Studies

Concept design plays a central role in project success as its product effectively locks the majority of system life cycle cost. Such extraordinary leverage presents a business case for conducting concept design in a credible fashion, particularly for first-of-a-kind systems that advance the state of the art and that have high design uncertainty. A key challenge, however, is to know when credible design convergence has been achieved in such systems. Using a space system example, this paper characterizes the level of convergence needed for concept design in the context of technical and programmatic resource margins available in preliminary design and highlights the importance of design and cost evaluation learning curves in determining credible convergence. It also provides techniques for selecting trade study cases that promote objective concept evaluation, help reveal unknowns, and expedite convergence within the trade space and conveys general practices for conducting effective concept design-to-cost studies.

Design To Cost↗

NASA NTRS2015

Techniques for Conducting Effective Concept Design and Design-to-Cost Trade Studies

Trade Studies↗

NASA NTRS2000

A Trade Study and Metric for Penetration and Sampling Devices for Possible Use on the NASA 2003 and 2005 Mars Sample Return Missions

This paper reviews the work completed on the compilation of a database containing viable penetrating and sampling devices, the performance system level trade study comparing selected devices to a set of prescribed parameters and the employment of a metric for the evaluation and ranking of the traded penetration and sampling devices, with respect to possible useage on the 03 and 05 sample return missions.

Mars↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Material Trade for Additively Manufactured Regenerative Chambers

Nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) is a game changing technology with advantages over chemical propulsion systems for deep space missions but comes with many engineering challenges. This paper focuses on the challenge of material selection for a regeneratively-cooled chamber for use in a nuclear environment with minimal design margins. Chemical compatibility with reactants and products following energy extraction (be it through combustion or neutron bombardment) must be considered. Similarly, mechanical and thermophysical properties (e.g., density, thermal conductivity, yield strength, etc.) as functions of temperature are critical. While hydrogen embrittlement environment (HEE) is a risk and consideration for traditional chemical combustion chambers, application in a nuclear thermal engine adds additional material compatibility and resilience requirements to long-term nuclear radiation exposure. Chamber materials in this trade included, but were not limited to, A-286, Haynes 230, Haynes 282, CRES 347, GRCop-42, GRCop-84, Inconel 625, JBK-75, and NASA HR-1. The material trade focuses on modern additive manufacturing techniques and hypothetical geometric constraints.

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Material Trade for Additively Manufactured Regenerative Chambers

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion↗

DOE OSTI2014

Impact of subgrid-scale radiative heating variability on the stratocumulus-to-trade cumulus transition in climate models

Subgrid-scale interactions between turbulence and radiation are potentially important for accurately reproducing marine low clouds in climate models. To better understand the impact of these interactions, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is configured for large eddy simulation (LES) to study the stratocumulus-to-trade cumulus (Sc-to-Cu) transition. Using the GEWEX Atmospheric System Studies (GASS) composite Lagrangian transition case and the Atlantic Trade Wind Experiment (ATEX) case, it is shown that the lack of subgrid-scale turbulence-radiation interaction, as is the case in current generation climate models, accelerates the Sc-to-Cu transition. Our analysis suggests that in cloud-topped boundary layers subgrid-scale turbulence-radiation interactions contribute to stronger production of temperature variance, which in turn leads to stronger buoyancy production of turbulent kinetic energy and helps to maintain the Sc cover.

Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory↗

DOE OSTI2024

Allometric relationships and trade‐offs in 11 common M editerranean‐climate grasses

Abstract Biomass allocation in plants is the foundation for understanding dynamics in ecosystem carbon balance, species competition, and plant–environment interactions. However, existing work on plant allometry has mainly focused on trees, with fewer studies having developed allometric equations for grasses. Grasses with different life histories can vary in their carbon investment by prioritizing the growth of specific organs to survive, outcompete co‐occurring plants, and ensure population persistence. Further, because grasses are important fuels for wildfire, the lack of grass allocation data adds uncertainty to process‐based models that relate plant physiology to wildfire dynamics. To fill this gap, we conducted a greenhouse experiment with 11 common California grasses varying in photosynthetic pathway and growth form. We measured plant sizes and harvested above‐ and belowground biomass throughout the life cycle of annual species, while for the establishment stage of perennial grasses to quantify allometric relationships for leaf, stem, and root biomass, as well as plant height and canopy area. We used basal diameter as a reference measure of plant size. Overall, basal diameter is the best predictor for leaf and stem biomass, height, and canopy area. Including height as another predictor can improve model accuracy in predicting leaf and stem biomass and canopy area. Fine root biomass is a function of leaf biomass alone. Species vary in their allometric relationships, with most variation occurring for plant height, canopy area, and stem biomass. We further explored potential trade‐offs in biomass allocation across species between leaf and fine root, leaf and stem, and allocation to reproduction. Consistent with our expectation, we found that fast‐growing plants allocated a greater fraction to reproduction. Additionally, plant height and specific leaf area negatively influenced the leaf‐to‐stem ratio. However, contrary to our hypothesis, there were no differences in root‐to‐leaf ratio between perennial and annual or C 4 and C 3 plants. Our study provides species‐specific and functional‐type‐specific allometry equations for both above‐ and belowground organs of 11 common California grass species, enabling nondestructive biomass assessment in California grasslands. These allometric relationships and trade‐offs in carbon allocation across species can improve ecosystem model predictions of grassland species interactions and environmental responses through differences in morphology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Design trade-offs for residential retail tariffs and virtual power plants

Retail rate design and virtual power plants (VPPs) have the potential to shift customer electricity demand and provide economic benefits to utility customers. As the adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) and flexible loads increases, retail tariff and program design can impact Bonbright's rate design principles including affordability, fairness, and economic efficiency. We model the effects of residential retail rates and VPP programs on power system costs in Massachusetts under a potential future system with high renewable energy and DER adoption. We model interactions among retail rate design, demand flexibility, and utility costs and identify trade-offs across different rate designs and VPP programs. We estimate that time-of-use (TOU) rates and VPP programs designed to avoid critical peak rates can lower overall system costs by 3.5 %-4.8 %. These lower costs translate to lower electricity bills for 62 %-91 % of customers, depending on the scenario. Although TOU rates with a critical peak VPP program can benefit all customer segments and are economically efficient, a VPP program with flat rates leads to the lowest overall bills for customers. We find that customers with loads that align with peak demand and who participate in critical peak VPP programs can underpay for their contribution to utility costs and shift costs to other customers. While our assumptions about mandatory TOU and/or critical peak pricing likely impact the magnitude of the results, the results highlight the trade-offs of these tariffs and programs and the importance of tariff and program design as demand becomes more flexible and responsive.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Breaking the trade-off between selectivity and adsorption capacity for gas separation

It is generally recognized that porous solids (sorbents) with high selectivity and high adsorption capacity offer potential for energy-efficient gas separations. Unfortunately, there is generally a trade-off between capacity and selectivity, which represents a roadblock to the utility of sorbents in key industrial processes. For example, acetylene (C 2 H 2 ), an important fuel and chemical intermediate, is produced with CO 2 as an impurity, and the similar physicochemical properties of C 2 H 2 and CO 2 mean that most sorbents are poorly selective. Hybrid ultramicroporous materials (HUMs) are candidates for gas separations as they exhibit benchmark selectivity for several key gas pairs. Unfortunately, existing HUMs are handicapped by low capacity. Here, we report a new HUM, SIFSIX-21-Ni, that addresses the trade-off between selectivity and capacity that has plagued sorbents, as its high uptake and high selectivity renders it the new benchmark for C 2 H 2 /CO 2 separation performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2018

Overcoming the trade-off between V oc and J sc : Asymmetric chloro-substituted two-dimensional benzo[1,2-b:4,5-b']dithiophene-based polymer solar cells

To achieve the high PCE and simultaneously overcome the trade-off between open circuit voltage (V oc ) and short-circuit current density (J( sc ), the reasonable design of the donor material is still a great challenge in nonfullerene polymer solar cells (PSCs). In this paper, a pair of asymmetric 2D BDT-based wide band gap polymers, named PBPTBz-1C1 and PRPTBz-2C1, respectively, were designed and synthesized through simultaneously introducing a chloro-substituted thiophene and another alkoxylphenyl groups as side chains onto the same BDT unit. As expected, the polymers PBPTBz-1C1 and PBPTBz-2C1 exhibit the deeper HOMO levels of - 5.32 and - 5.41 eV, respectively, compared with the HOMO value of - 5.27 eV for chlorine -free substituted polymer PBPTBz-OCI. Therefore, the PBPTBz-2Cl:IT-M based PSCs exhibited a higher V oc of 0.99 V, with an enhanced J sc of 14.92 mA cm -2 and PCE of 7.18%. The V oc , J sc and PCE were simultaneously enhanced from PEPTBz-OCLIT-M to PBPTBz-1C1:IT-M, then to PBPTBz-2C1:1T-M based PSCs successively. These results demonstrate that the challenge of the trade-off between V oc and J sc could be overcome through the asymmetric strategy of the chlorosubstituted thiophene and alkylphenyl groups as different side chains onto the same BDT unit. Hence, considering the low cost of starting materials and convenient introduction of chlorine atoms, the asymmetric chlorination of the side chain of BDT unit would be the great potential for achieving the high-performance PSCs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Climate vs Energy Security: Quantifying the Trade-offs of BECCS Deployment and Overcoming Opportunity Costs on Set-Aside Land

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) sits at the nexus of the climate and energy security. We evaluated trade-offs between scenarios that support climate stabilization (negative emissions and net climate benefit) or energy security (ethanol production). Our spatially explicit model indicates that the foregone climate benefit from abandoned cropland (opportunity cost) increased carbon emissions per unit of energy produced by 14–36%, making geologic carbon capture and storage necessary to achieve negative emissions from any given energy crop. The toll of opportunity costs on the climate benefit of BECCS from set-aside land was offset through the spatial allocation of crops based on their individual biophysical constraints. Dedicated energy crops consistently outperformed mixed grasslands. We estimate that BECCS allocation to land enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) could capture up to 9 Tg C year –1 from the atmosphere, deliver up to 16 Tg CE year –1 in emissions savings, and meet up to 10% of the US energy statutory targets, but contributions varied substantially as the priority shifted from climate stabilization to energy provision. Furthermore, our results indicate a significant potential to integrate energy security targets into sustainable pathways to climate stabilization but underpin the trade-offs of divergent policy-driven agendas.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Analyzing Production Rate and Carbon Utilization Trade-offs in CO 2 RR Electrolyzers

Carbon utilization is a crucially important performance characteristic of CO 2 electrolyzers; however, applications of simple and accurate descriptive models to experimental data on this topic are currently lacking. Here, we apply a simple analytical reactor model to parameterize single-pass conversion as a function of feed-gas flow rate and show that it captures a wide body of experimental data in the literature exceptionally well. In doing so, we demonstrate that this simple conceptual approach can characterize progress and capture recent innovations in reactor design. To validate the extracted parameters, we employ a well-established comprehensive model to confirm that the results agree with physical expectations. Lastly, we explore the implications of the descriptive model by examining the inherent trade-off between single-pass conversion efficiency and reactor productivity. Understanding such trade-offs is crucially important for advancing this electrolyzer technology toward commercial applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2019

Do We Need to Parameterize Mesoscale Convective Organization to Mitigate the MJO-Mean State Trade-Off?

Modifications in cumulus parameterizations that improve Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) simulation tend to degrade the mean state—known as the MJO-mean state trade-off. The impacts of parameterizing mesoscale convective organization on the relationship between the MJO and the mean state simulation fidelity are examined. A series of experiments are made with a general circulation model that parameterizes the mesoscale convective organization and simulates well both the MJO and the mean state. In the control simulation, a prognostic nondimensional variable (Ω) represents the degree of convective organization. In order to examine the effect of the parameterized convective organization, fixed Ω values are imposed in a series of constrained experiments. The fixed-Ω simulations show a negative relationship between the MJO and the mean state simulation fidelity. The control simulation is deviated from the negative relationship, suggesting the parameterized mesoscale convective organization helps general circulation models to mitigate the MJO-mean state trade-off.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Effect of Indian Ocean Temperature on the Pacific Trade Winds and ENSO

Abstract A notable shift in the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been observed in the early 21st century, characterized by an increased prevalence of Central Pacific (CP) events and strengthened Pacific trade winds. This shift may be attributed to the warming tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). To investigate this, we conduct perturbation experiments using the Insitut Pierre Simon Laplace climate model and nudge TIO surface temperatures to induce warming or cooling effects. Our findings reveal that TIO warming (or cooling) leads to amplified (weakened) mean trade winds and surface warming (cooling) in the Pacific region. Surprisingly, ENSO variability increases in both TIO cooling and warming scenarios. This result is linked to stronger positive feedbacks and a less stable Bjerknes index for either TIO forcing. Additionally, we find that TIO warming leads to more frequent CP events, meridional widening of wind anomalies, and broadening of the ENSO power spectrum toward lower frequencies.

Geology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Microphysics Dominates Sub‐Cloud Rain Evaporation in Trade Cumuli Over Barbados

This study investigates the microphysical and thermodynamic influences on North Atlantic trade-cumulus rain evaporation in the sub-cloud layer over Barbados from January to November 2020. Using radar observations and a 1-D model, the results reveal that microphysical properties, namely geometric mean diameter (D g ) and raindrop concentration, primarily control evaporation processes under conditions of limited thermodynamic variability. Thermodynamic factors like cloud base height and relative humidity exert a smaller influence due to their narrow observed ranges. Small D g leads to rapid increases in rain evaporation fraction (REF), as small drops evaporate completely, while larger D g yields slower, more gradual REF changes. Frequent weak-rain cases reduce the mean evaporation flux, whereas infrequent intense-rain events substantially enhance it. These findings highlight the pivotal role of microphysical variability in shaping sub-cloud evaporation in this trade cumulus regime, while thermodynamic effects may be more important in other environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Jack-of-all-trades effects drive biodiversity–ecosystem multifunctionality relationships in European forests

There is considerable evidence that biodiversity promotes multiple ecosystem functions (multifunctionality), thus ensuring the delivery of ecosystem services important for human well-being. However, the mechanisms underlying this relationship are poorly understood, especially in natural ecosystems. We develop a novel approach to partition biodiversity effects on multifunctionality into three mechanisms and apply this to European forest data. We show that throughout Europe, tree diversity is positively related with multifunctionality when moderate levels of functioning are required, but negatively when very high function levels are desired. For two well-known mechanisms, ‘complementarity’ and ‘selection’, we detect only minor effects on multifunctionality. Instead a third, so far overlooked mechanism, the ‘jack-of-all-trades’ effect, caused by the averaging of individual species effects on function, drives observed patterns. Simulations demonstrate that jack-of-all-trades effects occur whenever species effects on different functions are not perfectly correlated, meaning they may contribute to diversity–multifunctionality relationships in many of the world’s ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗