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DOE OSTI2022

PV DMFA [SWR-21-105]

The Photovoltaic Dynamic Material Flow Assessment (PV DMFA) model (also referred to here as “The model”) is a computational framework written in Python based on utility-scale PV electricity generation to quantify time-series stocks and flows of PV materials primarily in crystalline silicon PV technologies. The model evaluates cradle-to-cradle life cycle of utility-scale solar PV systems in the United States in the period 2000-2100. PV DMFA serves as a sustainability analysis tool to assess the impacts of different material circularity practices (i.e., reduce, reuse/refurbish, remanufacture, and recycle), PV module design shifts and sensitivity of material processing and technology related parameters to material installations, waste creation and raw material depletion in PV material supply chains. This tool enables advanced planning for future material needs and informs sustainable pathways for PV material management in the circular economy. This tool could be helpful to a wide range of stakeholders; Particularly, researchers and manufacturers looking for technoeconomic and/or environmental life cycle analysis (LCA) feedback for renewable energy (RE) systems.

Khalifa, SherifA.↗

NASA NTRS2005

An Improved Analysis of Forest Carbon Dynamics using Data Assimilation

There are two broad approaches to quantifying landscape C dynamics - by measuring changes in C stocks over time, or by measuring fluxes of C directly. However, these data may be patchy, and have gaps or biases. An alternative approach to generating C budgets has been to use process-based models, constructed to simulate the key processes involved in C exchange. However, the process of model building is arguably subjective, and parameters may be poorly defined. This paper demonstrates why data assimilation (DA) techniques - which combine stock and flux observations with a dynamic model - improve estimates of, and provide insights into, ecosystem carbon (C) exchanges. We use an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to link a series of measurements with a simple box model of C transformations. Measurements were collected at a young ponderosa pine stand in central Oregon over a 3-year period, and include eddy flux and soil C02 efflux data, litterfall collections, stem surveys, root and soil cores, and leaf area index data. The simple C model is a mass balance model with nine unknown parameters, tracking changes in C storage among five pools; foliar, wood and fine root pools in vegetation, and also fresh litter and soil organic matter (SOM) plus coarse woody debris pools. We nested the EnKF within an optimization routine to generate estimates from the data of the unknown parameters and the five initial conditions for the pools. The efficacy of the DA process can be judged by comparing the probability distributions of estimates produced with the EnKF analysis vs. those produced with reduced data or model alone. Using the model alone, estimated net ecosystem exchange of C (NEE)= -251 f 197g Cm-2 over the 3 years, compared with an estimate of -419 f 29gCm-2 when all observations were assimilated into the model. The uncertainty on daily measurements of NEE via eddy fluxes was estimated at 0.5gCm-2 day-1, but the uncertainty on assimilated estimates averaged 0.47 g Cm-2 day-1, and only exceeded 0.5gC m-2 day-1 on days where neither eddy flux nor soil efflux data were available. In generating C budgets, the assimilation process reduced the uncertainties associated with using data or model alone and the forecasts of NEE were statistically unbiased estimates. The results of the analysis emphasize the importance of time series as constraints. Occasional, rare measurements of stocks have limited use in constraining the estimates of other components of the C cycle. Long time series are particularly crucial for improving the analysis of pools with long time constants, such as SOM, woody biomass, and woody debris. Long-running forest stem surveys, and tree ring data, offer a rich resource that could be assimilated to provide an important constraint on C cycling of slow pools. For extending estimates of NEE across regions, DA can play a further important role, by assimilating remote-sensing data into the analysis of C cycles. We show, via sensitivity analysis, how assimilating an estimate of photosynthesis - which might be provided indirectly by remotely sensed data - improves the analysis of NEE.

Williams, Mathew↗

DOE OSTI2022

Improving and testing machine learning methods for benchmarking soil carbon dynamics representation of land surface models

Representation of soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in Earth system models (ESMs) is a key source of uncertainty in predicting carbon climate feedbacks. The magnitude of this uncertainty can be reduced by accurate representation of environmental controllers of SOC stocks in ESMs. In this study, we used data of environmental factors, field SOC observations, ESM projections and machine learning approaches to identify dominant environmental controllers of SOC stocks and derive functional relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks. Our derived functional relationships predicted SOC stocks with similar accuracy as the machine learning approach. We used the derived relationships to benchmark the coupled model intercomparison project phase six ESM representation of SOC stocks. We found divergent environmental control representation in ESMs in comparison to field observations. Representation of SOC in ESMs can be improved by including additional environmental factors and representing their functional relationships with SOC consistent with observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

Compression Stockings May Ameliorate Orthostatic Intolerance in Astronauts After Short-Duration Space Flight

Orthostatic intolerance following spaceflight has been observed since the early days of manned spaceflight, and no countermeasure has been 100% effective. During re-entry NASA astronauts currently wear an inflatable anti-gravity suit (AGS) which compresses the legs and abdomen, but this device is uncomfortable and loses effectiveness upon egress from the Space Shuttle. We previously reported that foot-to-thigh, gradient compression stockings were comfortable and effective during standing after Shuttle missions. More recently we showed in a ground-based model of spaceflight that the addition of splanchnic compression to the foot-to-thigh compression stockings, creating foot-to-breast high compression, improved orthostatic tolerance in hypovolemic subjects to a level similar to the AGS. Purpose: To evaluate a new three-piece, foot-to-breast high gradient compression garment as a countermeasure to post-spaceflight orthostatic intolerance. Methods: Fourteen astronauts completed this experiment (7 control, 7 treatment) following Space Shuttle missions lasting 12-16 days. Treatment subjects were custom-fitted for a three-piece, foot-to-breast high compression garment consisting of shorts and foot-to-thigh stockings. The garments were constructed to provide 55 mmHg compression at the ankle and decreased gradually to 15 mmHg over the abdomen. Orthostatic testing occurred ~30 days before flight (without garments) and ~2 hours after flight (with garments for treatment group only) on landing day. Blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR) were acquired for 2 minutes while the subject lay prone and then for 3.5 minutes after the subject stood. Data are reported as mean +/- SE. Results: The compression garment successfully prevented the tachycardia and hypotension typically seen post-spaceflight. On landing day, treatment subjects had a smaller change in HR (11+/-1 vs. 21+/-4 beats/min, p< or =0.05) and no decrease in systolic BP (2+/-4 vs. -9+/-2 mmHg, p< or =0.05). Garments also received good comfort ratings and were relatively easy to don. Conclusion: In this small group of astronauts, foot-to-breast high gradient compression garments seem to have prevented these negative effects of spaceflight on the cardiovascular responses to standing.

Platts, Steven H.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of benchmarking choices on inferred model skill of the Arctic–Boreal terrestrial carbon cycle

Abstract Land surface models require continuous validation against observations to improve and reduce simulation uncertainty. However, inferred model performance can be heavily influenced by subjective choices made in the selection and application of observational data products. A key area often misrepresented by models is the Arctic–Boreal region, which is a potential tipping point region in Earth’s climate system due to large permafrost carbon stocks that are vulnerable to release with climate warming. We use the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) framework to evaluate how the model skill of TRENDY-v9 models varies based on the choice of observational-based benchmark and how benchmarks are applied in model evaluation. This analysis uses global datasets integrated into ILAMB and new, regionally-specific observational products from the Arctic–Boreal Vulnerability Experiment. Our results cover the overall time period of 1979–2019 and show that model scores can vary substantially depending on the data product applied, with higher model scores indicating better model performance against observations. The lowest model scores occur when benchmarked against regional, compared to global, datasets. We also evaluate observed and modeled functional relationships between ecosystem respiration and air temperature and between gross primary production and precipitation. Here, we find that the magnitude and shape of the responses are strongly impacted by the choice of observational dataset and the approach used to construct the functional relationship benchmark. These results suggest that model evaluation studies could conclude a false sense of model skill if only using a single benchmark data product or if not applying regional data products when performing a regional model analysis. Collectively, our findings highlight the influence of benchmarking choices on model evaluation and point to the need for benchmarking guidelines when assessing model skill.

Poe, Jeralyn (ORCID:0000000318495278)↗

DOE OSTI2025

ComStock Measure Scenario Documentation: Laboratory-Informed Modeling of Standard Performance Heat Pump Rooftop Units

This measure scenario replaces gas and electric resistance RTUs in the U.S. commercial building stock with standard efficiency commercial off the shelf heat pump rooftop units. This study uses performance data informed by NREL laboratory testing of a standard efficiency 7.5-ton heat pump RTU. This is the key distinction between this measure scenario and a similar ComStock measure scenario - Standard Performance Heat Pump Rooftop Units - that uses published manufacturer data tables to inform performance. These two scenarios are compared in this report.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Modelling the Sensitivity of Yukon River Biogeochemical Dynamics to Environmental and Chemical Drivers: Implications for Dissolved Organic Carbon

Riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is a critical biogeochemical component that transmits information from Arctic soils to the Arctic Ocean, significantly influencing carbon dynamics in this unique ecosystem. As DOC travels downstream, it undergoes transformations that alter its composition and fate. The Yukon River serves as an effective testbed for modelling these dynamics, offering sufficient scale to capture key biogeochemical processes while having a simpler hydrology than other major Arctic rivers, as well as long-term DOC observational data for model validation. To investigate DOC transformations during transit in the Yukon River, we adapted our Arctic Riverine Organic Macromolecular Model by applying regional-specific parameterisations. Our model simulates the transport and transformation of 15 organic macromolecules, including CDOM (coloured dissolved organic matter), proteins, polysaccharides, lipids, lignin phenols, and humic substances. Initial DOC concentrations were derived from observed soil organic carbon stocks in the surrounding watershed, while chemical transformations and hydrological dynamics were modelled along the river's course. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were conducted using a Monte Carlo approach under two experimental setups. Results revealed that variability in DOC and CDOM concentrations at the river mouth were predominantly driven by initial DOC concentration (~70% of variability explained) and dilution at confluence points (~10%). The refractory fraction of DOC explained 21%–88% of the variability in 14 macromolecular concentrations and ranked in the top five sensitive parameters for all outputs when a uniform parameter distribution was assumed. However, when a more likely variability was applied to this parameter, its influence on DOC and CDOM decreased. Given that refractory DOC accounts for ~80% of total DOC in Arctic Rivers, this suggests that most DOC resists degradation and retains its chemical composition during transport to the coastal environment. River velocity, which determines residence time, explained 8%–47% of the variability in protein, polysaccharide, lipid, pigments, and lignin phenols at the river mouth. In contrast, chemical turnover times contributed only 1%–5% to output variability. Our findings underscore the need for improved land-specific headwater observations, including seasonal soil moisture and lateral transport dynamics that control the initial tributary-specific DOC inputs. With accelerated permafrost thaw and increasing river discharge, extending our model to other Arctic River systems and seasons will enhance understanding of Arctic riverine carbon fluxes and their contributions to the Arctic Ocean.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Divergent controls of soil organic carbon between observations and process-based models

Abstract The storage and cycling of soil organic carbon (SOC) are governed by multiple co-varying factors, including climate, plant productivity, edaphic properties, and disturbance history. Yet, it remains unclear which of these factors are the dominant predictors of observed SOC stocks, globally and within biomes, and how the role of these predictors varies between observations and process-based models. Here we use global observations and an ensemble of soil biogeochemical models to quantify the emergent importance of key state factors – namely, mean annual temperature, net primary productivity, and soil mineralogy – in explaining biome- to global-scale variation in SOC stocks. We use a machine-learning approach to disentangle the role of covariates and elucidate individual relationships with SOC, without imposing expected relationships a priori . While we observe qualitatively similar relationships between SOC and covariates in observations and models, the magnitude and degree of non-linearity vary substantially among the models and observations. Models appear to overemphasize the importance of temperature and primary productivity (especially in forests and herbaceous biomes, respectively), while observations suggest a greater relative importance of soil minerals. This mismatch is also evident globally. However, we observe agreement between observations and model outputs in select individual biomes – namely, temperate deciduous forests and grasslands, which both show stronger relationships of SOC stocks with temperature and productivity, respectively. This approach highlights biomes with the largest uncertainty and mismatch with observations for targeted model improvements. Understanding the role of dominant SOC controls, and the discrepancies between models and observations, globally and across biomes, is essential for improving and validating process representations in soil and ecosystem models for projections under novel future conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Chemical clocks: using otolith geochemistry to enhance estimation of age and growth of white hake (Urophycis tenuis)

The white hake (Urophycis tenuis) is a groundfish distributed throughout the Gulf of Maine. Catch advice is based on stock assessments done with age-based population dynamics models; however, otolith aging is challenging because of unclear growth increments. To address this concern, we compared the consistency of aging with counts of visual annuli to that of aging with cycles of elemental concentrations measured by using laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. We tested the hypothesis that oscillations in both environmental conditions and internal physiology through time influence uptake of elements during otolith mineralization. Concentrations of manganese, in comparison with those of the other investigated trace elements (magnesium, strontium, and barium), had the most promising correlation with visual growth increments (~100% age agreement, ±1 year), offering an additional tool to enhance increment identification. In our examination of 550 otoliths collected during 2007–2021, we found that white hake lived a maximum of 10.3 years and exhibited sexual dimorphism in maximum length and age. By using generated von Bertalanffy growth functions, L(t)=110(1–e–0.113(t+0.45)) for males and L(t)=140(1–e–0.113(t–0.30)) for females (where L(t) is length at time t), size and age at maturity were calculated for males (37.4 cm in total length (TL), 3.3 years) and females (47.4 cm TL, 4.2 years). These results demonstrate that otolith geochemistry can be used to improve the accuracy and precision of the estimation of fish age and maturity, even for challenging species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

Recent Rates of Forest Harvest and Conversion in North America

Incorporating ecological disturbance into biogeochemical models is critical for estimating current and future carbon stocks and fluxes. In particular, anthropogenic disturbances, such as forest conversion and wood harvest, strongly affect forest carbon dynamics within North America. This paper summarizes recent (2000.2008) rates of extraction, including both conversion and harvest, derived from national forest inventories for North America (the United States, Canada, and Mexico). During the 2000s, 6.1 million ha/yr were affected by harvest, another 1.0 million ha/yr were converted to other land uses through gross deforestation, and 0.4 million ha/yr were degraded. Thus about 1.0% of North America fs forests experienced some form of anthropogenic disturbance each year. However, due to harvest recovery, afforestation, and reforestation, the total forest area on the continent has been roughly stable during the decade. On average, about 110 m3 of roundwood volume was extracted per hectare harvested across the continent. Patterns of extraction vary among the three countries, with U.S. and Canadian activity dominated by partial and clear ]cut harvest, respectively, and activity in Mexico dominated by conversion (deforestation) for agriculture. Temporal trends in harvest and clearing may be affected by economic variables, technology, and forest policy decisions. While overall rates of extraction appear fairly stable in all three countries since the 1980s, harvest within the United States has shifted toward the southern United States and away from the Pacific Northwest.

Masek, Jeffrey G.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Leverage Points for System Health Management of Autonomous Systems

Systems Health Management (SHM) is one of three basic functionalities that constitute an autonomous capability of a system. The other two functionalities are Planning & Scheduling, and Task Execution. In an autonomous system, variable autonomy is often distinct from variable authority to sense, decide, and act. There are quantifiable Levels of Autonomy that can be achieved by tuning different portions of the Observe-Orient-Decide-Act loop to provide flexibility and control. This approach is tabulated for multiple domains such as spacecraft and aerial vehicles. Examining SHM through a Systems Thinking lens helps us understand its stocks and flows, loops, and delays. Systems thinking, and modeling, is a useful way to understand change and complexity of systems of many types. There are certain archetypes that underlie well-known autonomy architectures. And there often are leverage points - best places to intervene in a system - that can resolve or mitigate some fundamental challenges in the design and deployment of autonomous systems. I identify these levers and present the ones that have been successfully used in NASA missions.

Systems Thinking↗

DOE OSTI2025

Coupling Remote Sensing With a Process Model for the Simulation of Rangeland Carbon Dynamics

Rangelands provide significant environmental benefits through many ecosystem services, which may include soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. However, quantifying SOC stocks and monitoring carbon (C) fluxes in rangelands are challenging due to the considerable spatial and temporal variability tied to rangeland C dynamics as well as limited data availability. We developed the Rangeland Carbon Tracking and Management (RCTM) system to track long-term changes in SOC and ecosystem C fluxes by leveraging remote sensing inputs and environmental variable data sets with algorithms representing terrestrial C-cycle processes. Bayesian calibration was conducted using quality-controlled C flux data sets obtained from 61 Ameriflux and NEON flux tower sites from Western and Midwestern US rangelands to parameterize the model according to dominant vegetation classes (perennial and/or annual grass, grass-shrub mixture, and grass-tree mixture). The resulting RCTM system produced higher model accuracy for estimating annual cumulative gross primary productivity (GPP) (R 2 > 0.6, RMSE <390 g C m -2 ) relative to net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (NEE) (R 2 > 0.4, RMSE <180 g C m -2 ). Model performance in estimating rangeland C fluxes varied by season and vegetation type. The RCTM captured the spatial variability of SOC stocks with R 2 = 0.6 when validated against SOC measurements across 13 NEON sites. Model simulations indicated slightly enhanced SOC stocks for the flux tower sites during the past decade, which is mainly driven by an increase in precipitation. Future efforts to refine the RCTM system will benefit from long-term network-based monitoring of vegetation biomass, C fluxes, and SOC stocks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Large scale energy analysis and renovation strategies for social housing in the historic city of Venice

Social houses built after the Second World War to accommodate workers and low-income families represent one of the major energy consumers and greenhouse gas emitters in the residential sector. Plans for their renovation are underway in all European countries, and the process is more complicated for Italian cities due to the lack of space and the large number of historical buildings. This study addresses this challenge by proposing a methodology to renovate a low-income district in the city of Venice using CityBES to model and evaluate energy conservation measures. CityBES is a web-based tool that allows users to employ urban building energy modeling for large-scale energy and retrofit analyses of building stocks. In the case study conducted for Venice's Santa Marta district, due to the particular context, four common energy conservation measures covering both the building envelope and heat generation boilers have been applied. The evaluation of energy-saving performances at the district level showed that the four measures together achieved 67% energy savings, an abatement in energy cost equal to 67%, and annual carbon dioxide emissions reduction of 1.1 MtCO 2 . Furthermore, the case study demonstrates a method and workflow replicable for energy retrofit analysis of building stocks in other historical districts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Global-Scale Convergence Obscures Inconsistencies in Soil Carbon Change Predicted by Earth System Models

Soil carbon (C) responses to environmental change represent a major source of uncertainty in the global C cycle. Feedbacks between soil C stocks and climate drivers could impact atmospheric CO 2 levels, further altering the climate. Here, we assessed the reliability of Earth system model (ESM) predictions of soil C change using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6). ESMs predicted global soil C gains under the high emission scenario, with soils taking up 43.9 Pg (95% CI: 9.2–78.5 Pg) C on average during the 21st century. The variation in global soil C change declined significantly from CMIP5 (with average of 48.4 Pg [95% CI: 2.0–94.9 Pg] C) to CMIP6 models (with average of 39.3 Pg [95% CI: 23.9–54.7 Pg] C). For some models, a small C increase in all biomes contributed to this convergence. For other models, offsetting responses between cold and warm biomes contributed to convergence. Although soil C predictions appeared to converge in CMIP6, the dominant processes driving soil C change at global or biome scales differed among models and in many cases between earlier and later versions of the same model. Random Forest models, for soil carbon dynamics, accounted for more than 63% variation of the global soil C change predicted by CMIP5 ESMs, but only 36% for CMIP6 models. Although most CMIP6 models apparently agree on increased soil C storage during the 21st century, this consensus obscures substantial model disagreement on the mechanisms underlying soil C response, calling into question the reliability of model predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2022

Tropical peatland hydrology simulated with a global land surface model

Tropical peatlands are among the most carbon-dense ecosystems on Earth, and their water storage dynamics strongly control these carbon stocks. The hydrological functioning of tropical peatlands differs from that of northern peatlands, which has not yet been accounted for in global land surface models (LSMs). Here, we integrated tropical peat-specific hydrology modules into a global LSM for the first time, by utilizing the peatland-specific model structure adaptation (PEATCLSM) of the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM). We developed literature-based parameter sets for natural (PEATCLSM(Trop,Nat)) and drained (PEATCLSM(Trop,Drain)) tropical peatlands. Simulations with PEATCLSM(Trop,Nat) were compared against those with the default CLSM version and the northern version of PEATCLSM (PEATCLSM(North,Nat)) with tropical vegetation input. All simulations were forced with global meteorological reanalysis input data for the major tropical peatland regions in Central and South America, the Congo Basin, and Southeast Asia. The evaluation against a unique and extensive data set of in situ water level and eddy covariance-derived evapotranspiration showed an overall improvement in bias and correlation compared to the default CLSM version. Over Southeast Asia, an additional simulation with PEATCLSM(Trop,Drain) was run to address the large fraction of drained tropical peatlands in this region. PEATCLSM(Trop,Drain) outperformed CLSM, PEATCLSM(North,Nat) and PEATCLSM(Trop,Nat) over drained sites. Despite the overall improvements of PEATCLSM(Trop,Nat) over CLSM, there are strong differences in performance between the three study regions. We attribute these performance differences to regional differences in accuracy of meteorological forcing data, and differences in peatland hydrologic response that are not yet captured by our model.

Peatland↗

NASA NTRS2016

The SMAP Level 4 Carbon PRODUCT for Monitoring Terrestrial Ecosystem-Atmosphere CO2 Exchange

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission Level 4 Carbon (L4_C) product provides model estimates of Net Ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) incorporating SMAP soil moisture information as a primary driver. The L4_C product provides NEE, computed as total respiration less gross photosynthesis, at a daily time step and approximate 14-day latency posted to a 9-km global grid summarized by plant functional type. The L4_C product includes component carbon fluxes, surface soil organic carbon stocks, underlying environmental constraints, and detailed uncertainty metrics. The L4_C model is driven by the SMAP Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) data assimilation product, with additional inputs from the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) weather analysis and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data. The L4_C data record extends from March 2015 to present with ongoing production. Initial comparisons against global CO2 eddy flux tower measurements, satellite Solar Induced Canopy Florescence (SIF) and other independent observation benchmarks show favorable L4_C performance and accuracy, capturing the dynamic biosphere response to recent weather anomalies and demonstrating the value of SMAP observations for monitoring of global terrestrial water and carbon cycle linkages.

SMAP↗

DOE OSTI2022

Biorefinery upgrading of herbaceous biomass to renewable hydrocarbon fuels, Part 1: Process modeling and mass balance analysis

Process simulation has long been a well-established tool to track key operational, design, and mass and energy balance metrics for pre-commercial technologies such as advanced lignocellulosic biofuels. While tools such as this are well-documented in the public literature around 2nd-generation cellulosic ethanol technologies (which have been scaled up to commercial deployment to some degree over the past decade), such models and analysis information remain more sparse for more complex biorefinery pathways focused on producing drop-in hydrocarbon fuels and blend-stocks, particularly regarding information required to support air emissions or other environmental analysis. In this work, we summarize key details for an established "design case" modeling the conversion of herbaceous lignocellulosic biomass into a renewable diesel hydrocarbon blend-stock based on a representative lipid pathway from oleaginous yeast. The process is based on a biochemical deconstruction and upgrading approach utilizing deacetylation and dilute acid pretreatment, followed by enzymatic hydrolysis, fermentation, and catalytic upgrading of hydrolysate sugars to fuels. We provide key mass and energy balance outputs from the process models, with accompanying stream tables and component-level flowrates. A total of 12 model scenarios are presented spanning two feedstocks, three biorefinery scales, and two processing approaches for the lignin/residual solids waste streams. This "Part 1" manuscript presents the resulting impacts across the 12 cases on fuel yields and key output streams, focused here on direct biorefinery air emissions for selected components including CO 2 as well as sulfur (SOx) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). In the context of cleaner production, the latter focus on selected biorefinery air emission outputs establishes an initial baseline estimate and accompanying framework of the model cases, upon which an accompanying "Part 2" study will build to refine the values for these and other air pollutants across these scenarios, also considering mitigation options to comply with applicable regulatory standards. We also highlight further optimization opportunities based on potential tradeoffs identified here between air emissions versus life-cycle greenhouse gas profiles attributed to the disposition of lignin/residual solids.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigating Building Energy Consumption and CO2 Emission in Phoenix Using AutoBEM and Future Typical Meteorological Year (fTMY) Weather Data

This research investigates the energy performance and CO2 emissions of each building stock across the Phoenix metropolitan area using the Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) framework and Model America v2 (MAv2) dataset from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) and Future Typical Meteorological Year (fTMY) files were used for AutoBEM simulation. The simulation results from TMY and fTMY were compared. It was found that a projected 10.28% increase in total CO2 emissions and a 9.30% rise in total energy consumption by 2080–2099 relative to current typical conditions. The results highlight the disparities in emissions among different building stocks and the influence of climate change on future energy demand. The findings underscore the necessity of targeted policy interventions and retrofitting strategies (eg. advanced HVAC systems, improved insulation, reflective roofing) to mitigate emissions in high-energy-use and emission-intensed buildings, particularly as climate conditions evolve. This study contributes to the growing understanding of building-sector emissions and their long-term implications under future climate scenarios.

Li, Hang [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000306001920)↗