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189 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Bootstrap-determined p values in lattice QCD

We present a general method to determine the probability that stochastic Monte Carlo data, in particular those generated in a lattice QCD calculation, would have been obtained were that data drawn from the distribution predicted by a given theoretical hypothesis. Such a probability, or p -value, is often used as an important heuristic measure of the validity of that hypothesis. The proposed method offers the benefit that it remains usable in cases where the standard Hotelling T 2 methods based on the conventional χ 2 statistic do not apply, such as for uncorrelated fits. Specifically, we analyze q 2 , defined as the correlated χ 2 statistic obtained using an arbitrary covariance matrix estimator, and show how to use the bootstrap as a data-driven method to determine the expected distribution of q 2 for a given hypothesis with minimal assumptions. This distribution can then be used to determine the p -value for a fit to the data. We also describe a bootstrap approach for quantifying the impact upon this p -value of estimating population parameters from a single ensemble of N samples. The overall method is accurate up to a 1 / N bias which we do not attempt to quantify. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1995

Radiative transfer in a clumpy universe: The colors of high-redshift galaxies

We assess the effects of the stochastic attenuation produced by intervening QSO absorption systems on the broadband colors of galaxies at cosmological distances. We compute the H I opacity of a clumpy universe as a function of redshift, including scattering in resonant lines, such as Lyman alpha, Lyman beta, Lyman gamma, and higher order members, and Lyman-continuum absorption. Both the numerous, optically thin Lyman-alpha forest clouds and the rarer, optically thick Lyman limit systems are found to contribute to the obscuration of background sources. We study the mean properties of primeval galaxies at high redshift in four broad optical passbands, U(sub n), B, G, and R. Even if young galaxies radiated a significant amount of ionizing photons, the attenuation due to the accumulated photoelectric opacity along the path is so severe that sources beyond z approximately 3 will drop out of the U(sub n) image together. We also show that the observed B-R color of distant galaxies can be much redder than expected from a stellar population. At z approximately 3.5, the blanketing by discrete absorption lines in the Lyman series is so effective that background galaxies appear, on average, 1 mag fainter in B. By z approximately 4, the observed B magnitude increment due to intergalactic absorption exceeds 2 mag. By modeling the intrinsic UV spectral energy distribution of star-forming galaxies with a stellar population synthesis code, we show that the (B-R)(sub AB) approximately 0 criterion for identifying 'flat-spectrum,' metal-producing galaxies is biased against objects at z greater than 3. The continuum blanketing from the Lyman series produces a characteristic staircase profile in the transmitted power. We suggest that this cosmic Lyman decrement might be used as a tool to identify high-z galaxies.

Madau, Piero↗
DOE OSTI2025

A physics-constrained deep learning treatment of runaway electron dynamics

An adjoint formulation leveraging a physics-informed neural network (PINN) is employed to advance the density moment of a runaway electron (RE) distribution forward in time. A distinguishing feature of this approach is that once the adjoint problem is solved, its solution can be used to project the RE density forward in time for an arbitrary initial momentum space distribution of REs. Furthermore, by employing a PINN, a parametric solution to the adjoint problem can be learned. Thus, once trained, this adjoint-deep learning framework is able to efficiently project the RE density forward in time across various plasma conditions while still including a fully kinetic description of RE dynamics. As an example application, the temporal evolution of the density of primary electrons is studied, with particular emphasis on evaluating the decay of a RE population when below threshold. Predictions from the adjoint-deep learning framework are found to be in good agreement with a traditional relativistic electron Fokker–Planck solver, for several distinct initial conditions, and across an array of physics parameters. Once trained, the PINN thus provides a means of generating RE density time histories with exceptionally low online execution time.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2014

Symbiotic Stars in X-rays

Until recently, symbiotic binary systems in which a white dwarf accretes from a red giant were thought to be mainly a soft X-ray population. Here we describe the detection with the X-ray Telescope (XRT) on the Swift satellite of 9 white dwarf symbiotics that were not previously known to be X-ray sources and one that was previously detected as a supersoft X-ray source. The 9 new X-ray detections were the result of a survey of 41 symbiotic stars, and they increase the number of symbiotic stars known to be X-ray sources by approximately 30%. Swift/XRT detected all of the new X-ray sources at energies greater than 2 keV. Their X-ray spectra are consistent with thermal emission and fall naturally into three distinct groups. The first group contains those sources with a single, highly absorbed hard component, which we identify as probably coming from an accretion-disk boundary layer. The second group is composed of those sources with a single, soft X-ray spectral component, which likely arises in a region where low-velocity shocks produce X-ray emission, i.e. a colliding-wind region. The third group consists of those sources with both hard and soft X-ray spectral components. We also find that unlike in the optical, where rapid, stochastic brightness variations from the accretion disk typically are not seen, detectable UV flickering is a common property of symbiotic stars. Supporting our physical interpretation of the two X-ray spectral components, simultaneous Swift UV photometry shows that symbiotic stars with harder X-ray emission tend to have stronger UV flickering, which is usually associated with accretion through a disk. To place these new observations in the context of previous work on X-ray emission from symbiotic stars, we modified and extended the alpha/beta/gamma classification scheme for symbiotic-star X-ray spectra that was introduced by Muerset et al. based upon observations with the ROSAT satellite, to include a new sigma classification for sources with hard X-ray emission from the innermost accretion region. Since we have identified the elusive accretion component in the emission from a sample of symbiotic stars, our results have implications for the understanding of wind-fed mass transfer in wide binaries, and the accretion rate in one class of candidate progenitors of type Ia supernovae.

stars↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stochastic parametric skeletal dosimetry model for humans: Anatomical-morphological basis and parameter evaluation

Radiation exposure of the hematopoietic system that results in a radiation dose to bone marrow of more than 100 mGy leads to an increase in the risk of leukemia in humans. Excess relative risk of leukemia was observed in cohorts whose members lived in the territories of the Southern Urals that were radioactively contaminated in the 1950s. As part of the dosimetric support of epidemiological studies of these cohorts, an original methodology for stochastic bone dosimetric modeling was developed, termed the Stochastic Parametric Skeletal Dosimetry (SPSD) model. The purpose of this work was to present the anatomical and morphological bases of the SPSD model, which includes an assessment of the parameters of the microstructure of the trabecular bone in the hematopoietic areas of the human skeleton, as well as a description of the macrostructural division (segmentation) of hematopoietic areas into simple bone segments. As a result, an anatomical-morphological basis of the SPSD model was created based on published data. Data collection work included the analysis of original articles, atlases, manuals, monographs and the formation of primary data files. Data on the duration of hematopoiesis in various parts of the skeleton; and data on age-related changes in the microstructure and linear dimensions of human bones and their segments were analyzed. The paper describes the full set of parameters to be used for the dosimetric model for newborns, children aged 1, 5 and 10 years, as well as for adolescents aged 15 years and adults; for the latter, sex differences in bone size were considered. In total, the SPSD model includes 289 unique basic (bone) phantom segments, each of which is described by 7 or more parameters describing the microstructure, thickness of the cortical layer and linear dimensions. Population variability was estimated for each parameter. The approach to SPSD modeling, i.e., the use of simple geometric shapes, was successfully verified using independent datasets on bone masses and volumes.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Drift kinetic theory of alpha transport by tokamak perturbations

We report that upcoming tokamak experiments fuelled with deuterium and tritium are expected to have large alpha particle populations. Such experiments motivate new attention to the theory of alpha particle confinement and transport. A key topic is the interaction of alpha particles with perturbations to the tokamak fields, including those from ripple and magnetohydrodynamic modes like Alfvén eigenmodes. These perturbations can transport alphas, leading to changed localization of alpha heating, loss of alpha power and damage to device walls. Alpha interaction with these perturbations is often studied with single-particle theory. In contrast, we derive a drift kinetic theory to calculate the alpha heat flux resulting from arbitrary perturbation frequency and periodicity (provided these can be studied drift kinetically). Novel features of the theory include the retention of a large effective collision frequency resulting from the resonant alpha collisional boundary layer, correlated interactions over many poloidal transits and finite orbit effects. Heat fluxes are considered for the example cases of ripple and the toroidal Alfvén eigenmode (TAE). The ripple heat flux is small. The TAE heat flux is significant and scales with the square of the perturbation amplitude, allowing the derivation of constraints on mode amplitude for avoidance of significant alpha depletion. A simple saturation condition suggests that TAEs in one upcoming experiment will not cause significant alpha transport via the mechanisms in this theory. However, saturation above the level suggested by the simple condition, but within numerical and experimental experience, which could be accompanied by the onset of stochasticity, could cause significant transport.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1999

External Sources of Water for Mercury's Putative Ice Deposits

Radar images have revealed the possible presence of ice deposits in Mercury's polar regions. Although thermal models indicate that water ice can be stable in permanently shaded regions near Mercury's poles, the ultimate source of the water remains unclear. We use stochastic models and other theoretical methods to investigate the role of external sources in supplying Mercury with the requisite amount of water. By extrapolating the current terrestrial influx of interplanetary dust particles to that at Mercury, we find that continual micrometeoritic bombardment of Mercury over the last 3.5 byr could have resulted in the delivery of (3-60) x 10(exp 16) grams of water ice to the permanently shaded regions at Mercury's poles (equivalent to an average ice thickness of 0.8-20 m). Erosion by micrometeoritic impact on exposed ice deposits could reduce the above value by about a half. For comparison, the current ice deposits on Mercury are believed to be somewhere between approx. 2 and 20 m thick. Using a Monte Carlo model to simulate the impact history of Mercury, we find that asteroids and comets can also deliver an amount of water consistent with the observations. Impacts from Jupiter-family comets over the last 3.5 billion years can supply (0.1-200) x 10(exp 16) grams of water to Mercury's polar regions (corresponding to ice deposits 0.05-60 m thick), Halley-type comets can supply (0.2-20) x 10(exp 16) grams of water to the poles (0.07-7 m of ice), and asteroids can provide (0.4-20) x 10(exp 16) grams of water to the poles (0.1-8 m of ice). Although all these external sources are nominally sufficient to explain the estimated amount of ice currently at Mercury's poles, impacts by a few large comets and/or asteroids seem to provide the best explanation for both the amount and cleanliness of the ice deposits on Mercury. Despite their low population estimates in the inner solar system, Jupiter-family comets are particularly promising candidates for delivering water to Mercury because they have a larger volatile content than asteroids and more favorable orbital and impact characteristics than Halley-type comets.

Moses, Julianne I.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Generalized master equation for particle transport in binary random media with renewal statistics

Particle transport in binary stochastic mixtures is classically modeled assuming Markovian or exponential mixing statistics but in many applications material memory invalidates the Markov assumption. For non-Markovian mixing characterized by alternating renewal processes, a transport-theoretic framework is presented that provides an exact description of transport in nonscattering random binary media with general non-exponential statistics. Our approach is to Markovianize the problem by augmenting the {material type, particle flux} state space with the age or distance from the last interface. A Chapman-Kolmogorov equation is formulated for the joint probability density of the material type, particle flux, and age, and subsequently reduced to a generalized Master equation (GME) in differential form. This constitutes the primary result of this work. A state-updating Monte Carlo algorithm consistent with the GME is developed and benchmarked against analytical solutions for multiple chord-length laws. For purely absorbing renewal statistical media, the GME reproduces analytical benchmarks for the equilibrium age distribution, interior mean/variance of material-conditioned fluxes, and boundary transmittance. Simulations further demonstrate that a Markov (exponential) approximation of non-exponential statistics can introduce large errors in transmittance and interior flux profiles. Lastly, the reintroduction of memory due to scattering is briefly addressed through heuristic considerations.

Fluctuations & noise↗
DOE OSTI2024

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗