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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Comparison of Statistical Estimation Techniques for Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Reconstruction from MEDLI-like Data Sources

Flight data from an entry, descent, and landing (EDL) sequence can be used to reconstruct the vehicle's trajectory, aerodynamic coefficients and the atmospheric profile experienced by the vehicle. Past Mars missions have contained instruments that do not provide direct measurement of the freestream atmospheric conditions. Thus, the uncertainties in the atmospheric reconstruction and the aerodynamic database knowledge could not be separated. The upcoming Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) will take measurements of the pressure distribution on the aeroshell forebody during entry and will allow freestream atmospheric conditions to be partially observable. This data provides a mean to separate atmospheric and aerodynamic uncertainties and is part of the MSL EDL Instrumentation (MEDLI) project. Methods to estimate the flight performance statistically using on-board measurements are demonstrated here through the use of simulated Mars data. Different statistical estimators are used to demonstrate which estimator best quantifies the uncertainties in the flight parameters. The techniques demonstrated herein are planned for application to the MSL flight dataset after the spacecraft lands on Mars in August 2012.

Dutta, Soumyo↗
NASA NTRS2012

Broadband Noise Prediction When Turbulence Simulation Is Available - Derivation of Formulation 2B and Its Statistical Analysis

We show that a simple modification of Formulation 1 of Farassat results in a new analytic expression that is highly suitable for broadband noise prediction when extensive turbulence simulation is available. This result satisfies all the stringent requirements, such as permitting the use of the exact geometry and kinematics of the moving body, that we have set as our goal in the derivation of useful acoustic formulas for the prediction of rotating blade and airframe noise. We also derive a simple analytic expression for the autocorrelation of the acoustic pressure that is valid in the near and far fields. Our analysis is based on the time integral of the acoustic pressure that can easily be obtained at any resolution for any observer time interval and digitally analyzed for broadband noise prediction. We have named this result as Formulation 2B of Farassat. One significant consequence of Formulation 2B is the derivation of the acoustic velocity potential for the thickness and loading terms of the Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings (FW-H) equation. This will greatly enhance the usefulness of the Fast Scattering Code (FSC) by providing a high fidelity boundary condition input for scattering predictions.

Farassat, Fereidoun↗
NASA NTRS1972

Simulation of superposed coherent and chaotic radiation of arbitrary spectral shape.

A simulation technique is described and utilized to generate superposed coherent and chaotic (thermal) radiation of arbitrary spectral shape. The statistical properties of a simulated radiation field with a Lorentzian spectral density are investigated with a photoelectron counting experiment. The experimental photocount distribution and normalized mth-order factorial moments are compared to theory and verify that the simulated radiation field, an appropriately modulated laser beam, has the expected statistical properties. The concept described indicates that one may, in principle, generate a thermal source of comparable intensity to that of a laser, arbitrary spectral shape, and bandwidth.

Ruggieri, N. F.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Statistics of the cosmic Mach number from numerical simulations of a cold dark matter universe

Results are presented of an analysis of the cosmic Mach number, M, the ratio of the streaming velocity, v, to the random velocity dispersion, sigma, of galaxies in a given patch of the universe, which was performed on the basis of hydrodynamical simulations of the cold dark matter scenario. Galaxy formation is modeled by application of detailed physical processes rather than by the ad hoc assumption of 'bias' between dark matter and galaxy fluctuations. The correlation between M and sigma is found to be very weak for both components. No evidence is found for a physical 'velocity bias' in the quantities which appear in the definition of M. Standard cold-dark-matter-dominated universes are in conflict, at a statistically significant level, with the available observation, in that they predict a Mach number considerably lower than is observed.

Suto, Yasushi↗
NASA NTRS1989

Research in LMSS propagation

The Virginia Tech Satellite Communications Group has participated in the Land Mobile Satellite System (LMSS) program through JPL sponsorship since 1985. Involvement has mainly been in modeling and simulation of propagation characteristics and effects. Models developed to predict cummulative fade distributions for fading LMSS signals include LMSSMOD and the Simple Models which approximate LMSSMOD. Models to predict the mean and standard deviation of signal attenuation through roadside vegetation, namely the Average Path Model, were developed. In the area of simulation, efforts have centered around the development of a software simulator that uses data bases derived from experimental data to generate simulated data with arbitrary statistical behavior. This work has progressed to the development of an integrated analysis and simulation package, LIPS. The basic theory and results for the models and simulator have been previously documented in reports and papers. All LMSS activities are summarized and details of this year's efforts are given.

Barts, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Factor Analysis Applied the VFY-218 RCS Data

Present statistical factor analysis of computer simulations and measurement data for the VFY-218 configuration. Factor analysis try to quantify the statistical grouping of measurements and simulations.

Woo, Alex↗
NASA NTRS1991

Monte Carlo simulation of launchsite winds at Kennedy Space Center

This paper develops and validates an easily implemented model for simulating random horizontal wind profiles over the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) at Cape Canaveral, Florida. The model is intended for use in Monte Carlo launch vehicle simulations of the type employed in mission planning, where the large number of profiles needed for statistical fidelity of such simulation experiments makes the use of actual wind measurements impractical. The model is based on measurements made at KSC and represents vertical correlations by a decaying exponential model which is parameterized via least-squares parameter optimization against the sample data. The validity of the model is evaluated by comparing two Monte Carlo simulations of an asymmetric, heavy-lift launch vehicle. In the first simulation, the measured wind profiles are used, while in the second, the wind profiles are generated using the stochastic model. The simulations indicate that the use of either the measured or simulated wind field results in similar launch vehicle performance.

Queen, Eric M.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Low altitude wind shear statistics derived from measured and FAA proposed standard wind profiles

Wind shear statistics were calculated for a simulated data set using wind profiles proposed as a standard and compared to statistics derived from measured wind profile data. Wind shear values were grouped in altitude bands of 100 ft between 100 and 1400 ft, and in wind shear increments of 0.025 kt/ft between + or - 0.600 kt/ft for the simulated data set and between + or - 0.200 kt/ft for the measured set. No values existed outside the + or - 0.200 kt/ft boundaries for the measured data. Frequency distributions, means, and standard deviations were derived for each altitude band for both data sets, and compared. Also, frequency distributions were derived for the total sample for both data sets and compared. Frequency of occurrence of a given wind shear was about the same for both data sets for wind shears, but less than + or 0.10 kt/ft, but the simulated data set had larger values outside these boundaries. Neglecting the vertical wind component did not significantly affect the statistics for these data sets. The frequency of occurrence of wind shears for the flight measured data was essentially the same for each altitude band and the total sample, but the simulated data distributions were different for each altitude band. The larger wind shears for the flight measured data were found to have short durations.

Dunham, R. E., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Decision rules for unbiased inventory estimates

An efficient and accurate procedure for estimating inventories from remote sensing scenes is presented. In place of the conventional and expensive full dimensional Bayes decision rule, a one-dimensional feature extraction and classification technique was employed. It is shown that this efficient decision rule can be used to develop unbiased inventory estimates and that for large sample sizes typical of satellite derived remote sensing scenes, resulting accuracies are comparable or superior to more expensive alternative procedures. Mathematical details of the procedure are provided in the body of the report and in the appendix. Results of a numerical simulation of the technique using statistics obtained from an observed LANDSAT scene are included. The simulation demonstrates the effectiveness of the technique in computing accurate inventory estimates.

Argentiero, P. D.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Statistical interference prediction for ground stations from orbiting satellites. I - Simulation of interference duration and analytical approach for the determination of protection ratios

The authors describe simulation and analytical techniques for predicting the interference durations and protection ratios for deep-space ground stations from satellites in circular orbits. The simulation approach employs the characteristics of the ground station receivers in addition to the satellite specifications to calculate the daily statistics of the interference duration. On the other hand, the analytical method employs the ground station specifications to statistically predict the protection ratios as a function of the number of interference satellites and their associated probabilities. The results presented here can be used for both planning the missions and designing satellite communication links. The results can be also be used by spectrum managers and operations personnel to minimize the risk of harmful interference from satellites in low earth orbit to the deep space frequency band.

Gevargiz, John M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Computation of large-scale statistics in decaying isotropic turbulence

We have performed large-eddy simulations of decaying isotropic turbulence to test the prediction of self-similar decay of the energy spectrum and to compute the decay exponents of the kinetic energy. In general, good agreement between the simulation results and the assumption of self-similarity were obtained. However, the statistics of the simulations were insufficient to compute the value of gamma which corrects the decay exponent when the spectrum follows a k(exp 4) wave number behavior near k = 0. To obtain good statistics, it was found necessary to average over a large ensemble of turbulent flows.

Chasnov, Jeffrey R.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Refinement of Objective Motion Cueing Criteria Investigation Based on Three Flight Tasks

The objective of this paper is to refine objective motion cueing criteria for commercial transport simulators based on pilots' performance in three flying tasks. Actuator hardware and software algorithms determine motion cues. Today, during a simulator qualification, engineers objectively evaluate only the hardware. Pilot inspectors subjectively assess the overall motion cueing system (i.e., hardware plus software); however, it is acknowledged that pinpointing any deficiencies that might arise to either hardware or software is challenging. ICAO 9625 has an Objective Motion Cueing Test (OMCT), which is now a required test in the FAA's part 60 regulations for new devices, evaluating the software and hardware together; however, it lacks accompanying fidelity criteria. Hosman has documented OMCT results for a statistical sample of eight simulators which is useful, but having validated criteria would be an improvement. In a previous experiment, we developed initial objective motion cueing criteria that this paper is trying to refine. Sinacori suggested simple criteria which are in reasonable agreement with much of the literature. These criteria often necessitate motion displacements greater than most training simulators can provide. While some of the previous work has used transport aircraft in their studies, the majority used fighter aircraft or helicopters. Those that used transport aircraft considered degraded flight characteristics. As a result, earlier criteria lean more towards being sufficient, rather than necessary, criteria for typical transport aircraft training applications. Considering the prevalence of 60-inch, six-legged hexapod training simulators, a relevant question is "what are the necessary criteria that can be used with the ICAO 9625 diagnostic?" This study adds to the literature as follows. First, it examines well-behaved transport aircraft characteristics, but in three challenging tasks. The tasks are equivalent to the ones used in our previous experiment, allowing us to directly compare the results and add to the previous data. Second, it uses the Vertical Motion Simulator (VMS), the world's largest vertical displacement simulator. This allows inclusion of relatively large motion conditions, much larger than a typical training simulator can provide. Six new motion configurations were used that explore the motion responses between the initial objective motion cueing boundaries found in a previous experiment and what current hexapod simulators typically provide. Finally, a sufficiently large pilot pool added statistical reliability to the results.

motion simulation↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Map-Based Noise Simulations for DR6

The increasing statistical power of cosmic microwave background (CMB) datasets requires a commensurate effort in understanding their noise properties. The noise in maps from ground-based instruments is dominated by large-scale correlations, which poses a modeling challenge. This paper develops novel models of the complex noise covariance structure in the Atacama Cosmology Telescope Data Release 6 (ACT DR6) maps. We first enumerate the noise properties that arise from the combination of the atmosphere and the ACT scan strategy. We then prescribe a class of Gaussian, map-based noise models, including a new wavelet-based approach that uses directional wavelet kernels for modeling correlated instrumental noise. The models are empirical, whose only inputs are a small number of independent realizations of the same region of sky. We evaluate the performance of these models against the ACT DR6 data by drawing ensembles of noise realizations. Applying these simulations to the ACT DR6 power spectrum pipeline reveals a ≥ 20% excess in the covariance matrix diagonal when compared to an analytic expression that assumes noise properties are uniquely described by their power spectrum. Along with our public code, mnms, this work establishes a necessary element in the science pipelines of both ACT DR6 and future ground-based CMB experiments such as the Simons Observatory (SO).

CMBR experiments↗
NASA NTRS1992

An investigation of surface parameter estimation from surface models

In surface scattering problems, scattering models are used to estimate the surface parameters by comparing model predictions to data. The meaning of such a procedure is examined using computer simulated scattering data from statistically known surfaces. Numerically exact scattering computations based on the moment method are conducted, and standard surface scattering models are applied to these simulated data. It is shown that such an approach usually leads to effective surface parameters as opposed to real surface parameters, except for a limited frequency region. It is also shown that if a surface scattering model is valid over all frequencies, then it is possible to recover the real surface parameters regardless of whether the surface is single scale or two scale.

Fung, A. K.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Observed and Simulated Radiative and Microphysical Properties of Tropical Convective Storms

Increases in the ice content, albedo and cloud cover of tropical convective storms in a warmer climate produce a large negative contribution to cloud feedback in the GISS GCM. Unfortunately, the physics of convective upward water transport, detrainment, and ice sedimentation, and the relationship of microphysical to radiative properties, are all quite uncertain. We apply a clustering algorithm to TRMM satellite microwave rainfall retrievals to identify contiguous deep precipitating storms throughout the tropics. Each storm is characterized according to its size, albedo, OLR, rain rate, microphysical structure, and presence/absence of lightning. A similar analysis is applied to ISCCP data during the TOGA/COARE experiment to identify optically thick deep cloud systems and relate them to large-scale environmental conditions just before storm onset. We examine the statistics of these storms to understand the relative climatic roles of small and large storms and the factors that regulate convective storm size and albedo. The results are compared to GISS GCM simulated statistics of tropical convective storms to identify areas of agreement and disagreement.

DelGenio, Anthony D.↗
NASA NTRS1982

The influence of turbulence models on computer-simulated aircraft landing

Three models of simulated atmospheric turbulence were used to determine their respective influence on a computer-simulated, DC-8 type, aircraft landing. Statistical results based on a sample of 20 simulated landings illustrate the influence of turbulence simulated by the different models. For the same spectrum function, a non-Gaussian turbulence model produces the higher degree of touchdown variability. When different spectrum functions are used the von Karman model induces a smaller standard deviation in position error than the Dryden model. The turbulence energy contained by the higher frequency fluctuation has little effect on the landing position.

Frost, W.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Downlink Probability Density Functions for EOS-McMurdo Sound

The visibility times and communication link dynamics for the Earth Observations Satellite (EOS)-McMurdo Sound direct downlinks have been studied. The 16 day EOS periodicity may be shown with the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) and the entire 16 day period should be simulated for representative link statistics. We desire many attributes of the downlink, however, and a faster orbital determination method is desirable. We use the method of osculating elements for speed and accuracy in simulating the EOS orbit. The accuracy of the method of osculating elements is demonstrated by closely reproducing the observed 16 day Landsat periodicity. An autocorrelation function method is used to show the correlation spike at 16 days. The entire 16 day record of passes over McMurdo Sound is then used to generate statistics for innage time, outage time, elevation angle, antenna angle rates, and propagation loss. The levation angle probability density function is compared with 1967 analytic approximation which has been used for medium to high altitude satellites. One practical result of this comparison is seen to be the rare occurrence of zenith passes. The new result is functionally different than the earlier result, with a heavy emphasis on low elevation angles. EOS is one of a large class of sun synchronous satellites which may be downlinked to McMurdo Sound. We examine delay statistics for an entire group of sun synchronous satellites ranging from 400 km to 1000 km altitude. Outage probability density function results are presented three dimensionally.

Christopher, P.↗
NASA NTRS2002

An Intercomparison and Evaluation of Aircraft-Derived and Simulated CO from Seven Chemical Transport Models During the TRACE-P Experiment

Four global scale and three regional scale chemical transport models are intercompared and evaluated during NASA's TRACE-P experiment. Model simulated and measured CO are statistically analyzed along aircraft flight tracks. Results for the combination of eleven flights show an overall negative bias in simulated CO. Biases are most pronounced during large CO events. Statistical agreements vary greatly among the individual flights. Those flights with the greatest range of CO values tend to be the worst simulated. However, for each given flight, the models generally provide similar relative results. The models exhibit difficulties simulating intense CO plumes. CO error is found to be greatest in the lower troposphere. Convective mass flux is shown to be very important, particularly near emissions source regions. Occasionally meteorological lift associated with excessive model-calculated mass fluxes leads to an overestimation of mid- and upper- tropospheric mixing ratios. Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) depth is found to play an important role in simulating intense CO plumes. PBL depth is shown to cap plumes, confining heavy pollution to the very lowest levels.

Kiley, C. M.↗