Modeling Recommender Systems Using Disease Spread Techniques
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Peixiong He↗
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X-Ray Burst Oscillations: From Flame Spreading to the Cooling Wake
Type I X-ray bursts are thermonuclear flashes observed from the surfaces of accreting neutron stars (NSs) in low mass X-ray binaries. Oscillations have been observed during the rise and/or decay of some of these X-ray bursts. Those seen during the rise can be well explained by a spreading hot spot model, but large amplitude oscillations in the decay phase remain mysterious because of the absence of a clear-cut source of asymmetry. To date there have not been any quantitative studies that consistently track the oscillation amplitude both during the rise and decay (cooling tail) of bursts. Here we compute the light curves and amplitudes of oscillations in X-ray burst models that realistically account for both flame spreading and subsequent cooling. We present results for several such "cooling wake" models, a "canonical" cooling model where each patch on the NS surface heats and cools identically, or with a latitude-dependent cooling timescale set by the local effective gravity, and an "asymmetric" model where parts of the star cool at significantly different rates. We show that while the canonical cooling models can generate oscillations in the tails of bursts, they cannot easily produce the highest observed modulation amplitudes. Alternatively, a simple phenomenological model with asymmetric cooling can achieve higher amplitudes consistent with the observations.
ISM: individual objects (G32.8-0.1↗
Dilution Jets in Accelerated Cross Flows
Results of flow visualization experiments and measurements of the temperature field produced by a single jet and a row of dilution jets issued into a reverse flow combustor are presented. The flow in such combustors is typified by transverse and longitudinal acceleration during the passage through its bending section. The flow visualization experiments were designed to examine the separate effects of longitudinal and transverse acceleration on the jet trajectory and spreading rate. A model describing a dense single jet in a lighter accelerating cross flow is developed. The model is based on integral conservation equations, including the pressure terms appropriate to accelerating flows. It uses a modified entrainment correlation obtained from previous experiments of a jet in a cross stream. The flow visualization results are compared with the model calculations in terms of trajectories and spreading rates. Each experiment is typified by a set of three parameters: momentum ratio, density ratio, and the densimetric Froude number. When injection velocities are large or densities are small, the Froude number becomes very large and hence, unimportant. Therefore, the Froude number is generally significant in describing liquid experiments but is unimportant for the gas experiments in the combustor. Agreement between test and calculated results is encouraging but tends to become poorer with increasing momentum ratio. The temperature measurements are presented primarily in the form of consecutive normalized temperature profiles. Some interpolated isothermal contours are also shown. The single jet trajectories are consistently found to be swept towards the inner wall of the bend, whether injection is from the outer or the inner wall. This behavior is explained by a drifting effect which consists of a transverse velocity component across the combustor due to the developing nature of the flow along it. Plots of lateral temperature distributions of the jet indicate that under longitudinal acceleration conditions the thermal spreading of the jet may be completely suppressed. Comparison between combustor experimental results and model calculations shows poor agreement due to the drifting effect which is not taken into consideration in the model calculations. The row of jets experiments are characterized by two additional parameters: spacing ratio and confinement parameter. The results are shown in the form of consecutive normalized temperature profiles. The confinement parameter appears to become increasingly important with decreasing spacing ratio, in particular when its effect is enhanced by the drifting phenomenon and associated pressure field. A tightly spaced row of jets injected from the inner wall, prior to the bend, is surprisingly kept attached to the inner wall in spite of the strong turning. A similar attachment for a jet injected from the outer wall is not observed.
Lipshitz, Abraham↗
On the role of steepened structures and drift waves in equatorial spread F
A description is presented of a unified model of equatorial spread F which organizes much of the observational data and theoretical results in a self-consistent way. It is suggested that an initial bottomside instability nonlinearly evolves to the point that very steep gradients develop and that these steepened structures are responsible for the power spectra observed by probe experiments. This primary process is very likely the Rayleigh-Taylor instability. Observations indicate that some of the bottomside structures rise into the topside. It is shown that the observed gradients on the edges of these rising bubbles should be unstable to drift waves with a linear growth rate of about 1 per second and a perpendicular wavelength, for maximum growth, near the ion gyroradius.
Costa, E.↗
Estimating Future Changes of Energy Demand for Heating and Cooling Buildings at NASA Centers GC23J-1198
With its unique and trusted earth observations, NASA is a critical source in informing decisions that will help achieve the U.S. goal of Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions by 2050. NASA’s Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project facilitates the use of NASA Earth Science data holdings within the energy, agricultural, and building heating/cooling design industries. POWER packages solar and meteorological data from several NASA projects in a user friendly GIS-enabled web services system (https://power.larc.nasa.gov). As part of the development of new data products to support the energy and building heating/cooling design communities, we estimate the changes in energy required to heat and cool buildings in the future climate at 14 different NASA site locations spread throughout the continental United States, as projected by CMIP6 climate models under different emissions scenarios. Bias-corrected downscaled time series of meteorological variables are taken from NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Global Daily Downscaled Projections (GDDP-CMIP6) downscaled climate model data. The spread between the different model projections is accounted for by analyzing both the ensemble average of 22 CMIP6 models and 6 representative models with different climate sensitivities and different interannual variability. Changes in energy use are estimated in two ways. First, changes in the total annual heating and cooling degree days (HDD and CDD, respectively) are calculated relative to the current climate. This is done at all 14 sites. Second, the downscaled time series are used as inputs into RETScreen(R), a clean energy management decision tool, to give an estimate of heating/cooling energy use for a typical office building. We use this estimation method with model data at Langley Research Center. In the next 50 years, the annual total of HDD (CDD) is projected to decrease by 8-38% (increase by 5-28%) at all sites, with the increase in CDD typically a larger magnitude the decrease in HDD. For a typical small office building at Langley Research Center, the amount of energy needed to cool increases by 33-54% and the amount of energy to heat decreases by 29-40%. POWER is working to develop long term climate data services based on these results to include in future data products to provide to users.
Bradley M. Hegyi↗
A closer look at turbulence spreading: How bistability admits intermittent, propagating turbulence fronts
In magnetic fusion plasmas, mounting evidence indicates the possibility of sustained turbulence below the linear stability threshold or more generally global turbulence bistability. The usual reduced models for turbulence spreading are unistable/supercritical and incompatible with this result. The older models further cannot realistically support fronts connecting laminar and turbulent domains. In this work, a minimal model for “subcritical” turbulence spreading is introduced and analyzed. The model may be viewed as phenomenological or derived directly by considering the effect of profile corrugations in an E×B staircase. The model, which is related to the FitzHugh–Nagumo system, supports the robust coexistence of multiple turbulence levels via bistability. We show that this model predicts stronger penetration of turbulence into a linearly stable region as well as the formation of intermittent turbulence fronts that resemble avalanches. We derive the critical size that a localized slug of turbulence must exceed in order to spread. Lastly, we make a prediction of global hysteretic behavior associated with the bistability, which should be testable via experiment.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
The relatively young and rural population may limit the spread and severity of COVID-19 in Africa: a modelling study
A novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread to all regions of the world. There is great uncertainty regarding how countries’ characteristics will affect the spread of the epidemic; to date, there are few studies that attempt to predict the spread of the epidemic in African countries. In this paper, we investigate the role of demographic patterns, urbanisation and comorbidities on the possible trajectories of COVID-19 in Ghana, Kenya and Senegal. We use an augmented deterministic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model to predict the true spread of the disease, under the containment measures taken so far. We disaggregate the infected compartment into asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic and severely symptomatic to match observed clinical development of COVID-19. We also account for age structures, urbanisation and comorbidities (HIV, tuberculosis, anaemia). In our baseline model, we project that the peak of active cases will occur in July, subject to the effectiveness of policy measures. When accounting for the urbanisation, and factoring in comorbidities, the peak may occur between 2 June and 17 June (Ghana), 22 July and 29 August (Kenya) and, finally, 28 May and 15 June (Senegal). Successful containment policies could lead to lower rates of severe infections. While most cases will be mild, we project in the absence of policies further containing the spread, that between 0.78% and 1.03%, 0.61% and 1.22%, and 0.60% and 0.84% of individuals in Ghana, Kenya and Senegal, respectively, may develop severe symptoms at the time of the peak of the epidemic. Compared with Europe, Africa’s younger and rural population may modify the severity of the epidemic. The large youth population may lead to more infections but most of these infections will be asymptomatic or mild, and will probably go undetected. The higher prevalence of underlying conditions must be considered.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Dilution jets in accelerated cross flows
Results of flow visualization experiments and measurements of the temperature field produced by a single jet and a row of dilution jets issued into a reverse flow combustor are presented. The flow in such combustors is typified by transverse and longitudinal acceleration during the passage through its bending section. The flow visualization experiments are designed to examine the separate effects of longitudinal and transverse acceleration on the jet trajectory and spreading rate. A model describing a dense single jet in a lighter accelerating cross flow is developed. The model is based on integral conservation equations, including the pressure terms appropriate to accelerating flows. It uses a modified entrainment correlation obtained from previous experiments of a jet in a cross stream. The flow visualization results are compared with the model calculations in terms of trajectories and spreading rates. Each experiment is typified by a set of three parameters: momentum ratio, density ratio and the densimetric Froude number.
Lipshitz, A.↗
Modeling of hepatitis B virus infection spread in primary human hepatocytes
ABSTRACT Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection poses a significant global health threat, causing severe liver diseases including cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. We characterized HBV DNA kinetics in primary human hepatocytes (PHHs) over 32 days post-inoculation (p.i.) and modified ourin-vivoagent-based modeling (ABM) to gain insights into the HBV lifecycle and spreadin vitro. Parallel PHH cultures were mock-treated or treated with HBV entry inhibitor Myr-preS1 (6.25 µg/mL) was initiated 24 h p.i. In untreated PHH, three viral DNA kinetic patterns were identified: (i) an initial decline, followed by (ii) rapid amplification and (iii) slower amplification/accumulation. In the presence of Myr-preS1, viral DNA and infected cell numbers in phase 3 were effectively blocked, with minimal to no increase. This suggests that phase 2 represents viral amplification in initially infected cells, while phase 3 corresponds to viral spread to naïve cells. The ABM reproduced well the HBV kinetic patterns observed and predicted that the viral eclipse phase lasts between 18 and 38 h. After the eclipse phase, the viral production rate increased over time, starting with a slow production cycle of 1 virion per day, which gradually accelerated to 1 virion per hour after 3 days. Approximately 4 days later, virion production reached a steady state production rate of 4 virions/h. The estimated median efficacy of Myr-preS1 in blocking HBV spread was 91% (range: 90–92%). The HBV kinetics and the predicted estimates of the HBV eclipse phase duration and HBV production cycles in PHH are similar to those predicted in uPA/SCID mice with human livers. IMPORTANCE While primary human hepatocytes (PHHs) are the most physiologically relevant culture system for studying HBV infectionin vitro, a comprehensive understanding of HBV infection kinetics and spread in PHH is lacking. In this study, we characterize HBV viral kinetics and modify ourin vivoagent-based modeling (ABM) to provide quantitative insights into the HBV production cycle and viral spread in PHH. The ABM provides an estimate of the HBV eclipse phase duration, HBV production cycles, and Myr-preS1 efficacy in blocking HBV spread in PHH. The results resemble those predicted in uPA/SCID mice with human livers, demonstrating that estimated HBV infection kinetic parameters in PHHin vitromirror those observed in thein vivoHBV infection chimeric mouse model.
Virology↗
Ignition, Transition, Flame Spread in Multidimensional Configurations in Microgravity
Ignition of solid fuels by external thermal radiation and subsequent transition to flame spread are processes that not only are of considerable scientific interest but which also have fire safety applications. A material which undergoes a momentary ignition might be tolerable but a material which permits a transition to subsequent flame spread would significantly increase the fire hazard in a spacecraft. Therefore, the limiting condition under which flame cannot spread should be calculated from a model of the transition from ignition instead of by the traditional approach based on limits to a steady flame spread model. However, although the fundamental processes involved in ignition have been suggested there have been no definitive experimental or modeling studies due to the flow motion generated by buoyancy near the heated sample surface. In this study, microgravity experiments which required longer test times such as in air and surface smoldering experiment were conducted in the space shuttle STS-75 flight; shorter experimental tests such as in 35% and 50% oxygen were conducted in the droptower in the Japan Microgravity Center, JAMIC. Their experimental data along with theoretically calculated results from solving numerically the time-dependent Navier-Stokes equations are summarized in this paper.
Kashiwagi, Takashi↗
MHD Streamer Structure, Slow Solar Wind, and the Streamer Brightness Boundary
Flow tubes adjacent to closed magnetic field lines on the boundaries of streamers can have extremely large geometric spreading factors. Numerical models in this thin layer are subject to grid definition uncertainties. Therefore, we compute flow tube geometry using the analytic model of streamer structure described by Pneuman. This model has been found to be more widely applicable than commonly believed as a consequence of observations made with SOHO/UVCS and YOKHOH/SXT. We use the model to compute the radial dependence of flow tube geometry (the "spreading factors") for several different streamer models. The results are used to analyze the hypothesis that extremely slow flows in these open flow tubes may cause high densities relative to adjacent coronal hole flow. Such high density could mean that the streamer brightness boundary is defined by the open flow tubes adjacent to streamers rather than closed field lines.
Suess, Steven T.↗
Gravitational effects on flames spreading over thick solid surfaces
A theoretical model for the downward spread of a flame in the gas over a semi-infinitely thick fuel bed is presented. Gas-phase chemistry is assumed to proceed at an infinite rate while the fuel bed is taken to pyrolyze at the surface in an Arrhenius fashion. Spread rates and flame shapes are computed for two different ambient oxygen concentrations for gravitational accelerations both below and above that of the earth. Predicted spread rates decrease and actual flame size increases with decreasing gravity. Results agree favorably with available, experimental results and expected results from reduced gravity experimentation.
Vedha-Nayagam, M.↗
Adaptive Recovery Model: Designing Systems for Testing Tracing and Vaccination to Support COVID-19 Recovery Planning.
This report documents a new approach to designing disease control policies that allocate scarce testing, contact tracing, and vaccination resources to better control community transmission of COVID19 or similar diseases. The Adaptive Recovery Model (ARM) combines a deterministic compartmental disease model with a stochastic network disease propagation model to enable us to simulate COVID-19 community spread through the lens of two complementary modeling motifs. ARM contact networks are derived from cell-phone location data that have been anonymized and interpreted as individual arrivals to specic public locations. Modeling disease spread over these networks allows us to identify locations within communities conducive to rapid disease spread. ARM applies this model- and data-derived abstractions of community transmission to evaluate the effectiveness of disease control measures including targeted social distancing, contact tracing, testing and vaccination. The architecture of ARM provides a unique capacity to help decision makers understand how best to deploy scarce testing, tracing and vaccination resources to minimize disease-spread potential in a community. This document details the novel mathematical formulations underlying ARM, presents a dynamical stability analysis of the deterministic model components, a sensitivity analysis of control parameters and network structure, and summarizes a process for deriving contact networks from cell-phone location data. An example use case steps through applying ARM to evaluate three targeted social distancing policies using Bernalillo County, New Mexico as an exemplar test locale. This step-by-step analysis demonstrates how ARM can be used to measure the relative performance of competing public health policies. Initial scenario tests of ARM shows that ARMs design focus on resource utilization rather than simple incidence prediction can provide decision makers with additional quantitative guidance for managing ongoing public health emergencies and planning future responses.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century
Abstract. Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
ISMIP6 Antarctica: A Multi-Model Ensemble of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Evolution Over the 21st Century
Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between -7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica ass change varies between -6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.
Hélène Seroussi↗
The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) Contribution to CMIP6: Investigation of Sea-Level and Ocean Climate Change in Response to CO2 Forcing
The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) aims to investigate the spread in simulations of sea-level and ocean climate change in response to CO2 forcing by atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). It is particularly motivated by the uncertainties in projections of ocean heat uptake, global-mean sealevel rise due to thermal expansion and the geographical patterns of sea-level change due to ocean density and circulation change. FAFMIP has three tier-1 experiments, in which prescribed surface flux perturbations of momentum, heat and freshwater respectively are applied to the ocean in separate AOGCM simulations. All other conditions are as in the pre-industrial control. The prescribed fields are typical of pattern and magnitude of changes in these fluxes projected by AOGCMs for doubled CO2 concentration. Five groups have tested the experimental design with existing AOGCMs. Their results show diversity in the pattern and magnitude of changes, with some common qualitative features. Heat and water flux perturbation cause the dipole in sea-level change in the North Atlantic, while momentum and heat flux perturbation cause the gradient across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) declines in response to the heat flux perturbation, and there is a strong positive feedback on this effect due to the consequent cooling of sea-surface temperature in the North Atlantic, which enhances the local heat input to the ocean. The momentum and water flux perturbations do not substantially affect the AMOC. Heat is taken up largely as a passive tracer in the Southern Ocean, which is the region of greatest heat input, while the weakening of the AMOC causes redistribution of heat towards lower latitudes. Future analysis of these and other phenomena with the wider range of CMIP6 FAFMIP AOGCMs will benefit from new diagnostics of temperature and salinity tendencies, which will enable investigation of the model spread in behaviour in terms of physical processes as formulated in the models.
thermosteric sea-level change↗
Heterogeneous estimations of non-pharmaceutical mitigation behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of human behavior in mitigating the spread of disease. Nonetheless, human behavior is often overlooked in models of disease spread, particularly by underutilizing real-world data. We address this by estimating probabilities that individuals engage in behaviors that influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk during the COVID-19 pandemic, between September 2020 and June 2022. These behaviors include wearing a mask, using public transportation, spending time with others, avoiding contact with others, and going to work. Our estimates account for the age and sex of individuals and are generated for every county in the United States. We utilized multiple open-source datasets and United States Census data to produce these estimates. Multiple datasets were used for validation, showing our estimates demonstrated comparable accuracy and robustness. Our estimates aid in understanding human behavior dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic and could be used to inform monthly or longer-term behavior in simulations of COVID-19. Moreover, the methods presented can be applied to other behaviors and features for future simulations of infectious disease.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Uncertainty of SW Cloud Radiative Effect in Atmospheric Models Due to the Parameterization of Liquid Cloud Optical Properties
Clouds are largely responsible for the spread of climate models predictions. Here we focus on the uncertainties in cloud shortwave radiative effect due to the parameterization of liquid cloud single scattering properties (SSPs) from liquid water content (LWC) and droplet number concentration (N), named parameterization of cloud optical properties. Uncertainties arise from not accounting for the droplet size distribution (DSD)—which affects the estimation of the effective radius (r eff ) and modulates the r eff -dependency of the SSPs—and from averaging SSPs over wide spectral bands. To assess these uncertainties a series of r eff -dependent SSPs parameterizations corresponding to various DSDs and spectral averaging methods are derived and implemented in a radiative code. Combined with the DSD-dependent estimation of r eff they are used to compute the bulk radiative properties (reflectance, transmittance, absorptance) of various clouds (defined in terms of LWC and N), including a homogeneous cloud, more realistic case studies, and outputs of a climate model. The results show that the cloud radiative forcing can vary up to 20% depending on the assumed DSD. Likewise, differences up to 20% are obtained for heating rates. The estimation of r eff is the main source of uncertainty, while the SSPs parameterization contributes to around 20% of the total uncertainty. Spectral averaging is less an issue, except for atmospheric absorption. Overall, global shortwave cloud radiative effect can vary by 6 W m –2 depending on the assumed DSD shape, which is about 13% of the best observational estimate.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗