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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

Statistical Error Analysis on White-Light Filter Ratio Experiments to Measure Electron Parameters

The Filter ratio technique to remotely measure electron temperature and speed using four color filters in visible light and a polarization camera was described in detail in four articles by Reginald et al., Solar physics, (2018, 2019a, 2019b, 2020). In these four articles we quantified the systematic error associated with using models of symmetric corona to interpret results from asymmetric corona. We also showed the criteria applied to select the bandwidths of filters, and the pros and cons of replacing the traditional linear polarizer with a polarization camera to measure pB. What started in 1990s as ground experiments conducted during total solar eclipses that lasted for a few minutes lead to a balloon borne experiment lasting eight hours in 2019 and will blossom into a space experiment on the International Space Station in 2023. Due to constraints on the bandwidths of the four filters, a successful mission requires quantification of the statistical error using Monte Carlo simulation to generate two feasibility profiles, which are unique to the design parameters of the coronagraph, to comprehend the feasibility to measure temperature and speed within the desired temporal and spatial resolutions. For the statistical error analysis, we use modeled K and F corona profiles, representative theoretical diffraction, scattering, and vignetting profiles, assumed efficiencies for lenses, mirrors, and polarizers, assumed detector properties on quantum efficiency, full well depth, dark noise, and read noise, and assumed instrument properties on aperture diameter, solid angle, and pixel resolution. We hope future white-light coronagraphs will exhibit capabilities to measure electron density, temperature, and speed.

Nelson Reginald↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Review of Bayesian Networks for Spatial Data

We report Bayesian networks are a popular class of multivariate probabilistic models as they allow for the translation of prior beliefs about conditional dependencies between variables to be easily encoded into their model structure. Due to their widespread usage, they are often applied to spatial data for inferring properties of the systems under study and also generating predictions for how these systems may behave in the future. We review published research on methodologies for representing spatial data with Bayesian networks and also summarize the application areas for which Bayesian networks are employed in the modeling of spatial data. We find that a wide variety of perspectives are taken, including a GIS-centric focus on efficiently generating geospatial predictions, a statistical focus on rigorously constructing graphical models controlling for spatial correlation, as well as a range of problem-specific heuristics for mitigating the effects of spatial correlation and dependency arising in spatial data analysis. Special attention is also paid to potential future directions for integration of Bayesian networks with spatial processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

A species’ response to spatial climatic variation does not predict its response to climate change

The dominant paradigm for assessing ecological responses to climate change assumes that future states of individuals and populations can be predicted by current, species-wide performance variation across spatial climatic gradients. However, if the fates of ecological systems are better predicted by past responses to in situ climatic variation through time, this current analytical paradigm may be severely misleading. Empirically testing whether spatial or temporal climate responses better predict how species respond to climate change has been elusive, largely due to restrictive data requirements. Here, we leverage a newly collected network of ponderosa pine tree-ring time series to test whether statistically inferred responses to spatial versus temporal climatic variation better predict how trees have responded to recent climate change. When compared to observed tree growth responses to climate change since 1980, predictions derived from spatial climatic variation were wrong in both magnitude and direction. This was not the case for predictions derived from climatic variation through time, which were able to replicate observed responses well. Future climate scenarios through the end of the 21st century exacerbated these disparities. These results suggest that the currently dominant paradigm of forecasting the ecological impacts of climate change based on spatial climatic variation may be severely misleading over decadal to centennial timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

An evaluation of air quality in major urban areas of India

Rapid economic growth and burgeoning population have contributed to enhanced levels of PM 2.5 concentrations in urban regions of India. Evaluation of ambient air quality facilitates the assessment of effectiveness of emission control measures and early identification of new sources. This study provides a comprehensive statistical analysis of PM 2.5 concentrations in key urban areas across India, including Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai, Chennai, Hyderabad, and several regional centers. Data from 2017 to 2023 was analyzed using trend analysis, cluster analysis, principal component analysis, and geostatistical interpolation to understand spatiotemporal variations and sources. The analysis reveals significant differences in spatial distribution of PM 2.5 concentrations with high annual averages in urban regions in Indo-Gangetic plain (82–123 μg m −3 ) and relatively lower concentrations (29–46 μg m −3 ) in southern urban areas of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Delhi state had the highest 24-averaged PM 2.5 concentrations (112 μg m −3 ) followed by urban regions in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal (94 μg m −3 ). Trend analysis from 2017 to 2023 revealed an overall 2.5% decline in site-wide PM2.5 concentrations, with the exception of Ludhiana, which exhibited a consistent annual increase of 10%. Principal component analysis (PCA) attributes 30% of the variance to wintertime emissions, 13% to biomass burning, and 18% to the regional haze in the northern Indo-Gangetic Plain. Different analyses clearly demonstrates the contribution of biomass burning to pollution in Delhi and surrounding cities. Transboundary pollution to Kolkata is likely from the highly polluted region in Indo-Gangetic Plain. Coastal cities of Mumbai and Chennai has relatively lower pollution attributed to the influence of sea breeze dilution, with mostly local contribution and some potential transport from upwind industry clusters. Hyderabad also has local contribution due to high density of vehicular traffic and local small industries. This study shows that mitigation efforts targeting clusters of regions should be undertaken to curb the high PM2.5 pollution. Policy measures should be implemented both at local and the intra-state level to address shared sources and transport of pollution.

Hysplitbacktrajectories↗
NASA NTRS2002

On the Choice of Variable for Atmospheric Moisture Analysis

The implications of using different control variables for the analysis of moisture observations in a global atmospheric data assimilation system are investigated. A moisture analysis based on either mixing ratio or specific humidity is prone to large extrapolation errors, due to the high variability in space and time of these parameters and to the difficulties in modeling their error covariances. Using the logarithm of specific humidity does not alleviate these problems, and has the further disadvantage that very dry background estimates cannot be effectively corrected by observations. Relative humidity is a better choice from a statistical point of view, because this field is spatially and temporally more coherent and error statistics are therefore easier to obtain. If, however, the analysis is designed to preserve relative humidity in the absence of moisture observations, then the analyzed specific humidity field depends entirely on analyzed temperature changes. If the model has a cool bias in the stratosphere this will lead to an unstable accumulation of excess moisture there. A pseudo-relative humidity can be defined by scaling the mixing ratio by the background saturation mixing ratio. A univariate pseudo-relative humidity analysis will preserve the specific humidity field in the absence of moisture observations. A pseudorelative humidity analysis is shown to be equivalent to a mixing ratio analysis with flow-dependent covariances. In the presence of multivariate (temperature-moisture) observations it produces analyzed relative humidity values that are nearly identical to those produced by a relative humidity analysis. Based on a time series analysis of radiosonde observed-minus-background differences it appears to be more justifiable to neglect specific humidity-temperature correlations (in a univariate pseudo-relative humidity analysis) than to neglect relative humidity-temperature correlations (in a univariate relative humidity analysis). A pseudo-relative humidity analysis is easily implemented in an existing moisture analysis system, by simply scaling observed-minus background moisture residuals prior to solving the analysis equation, and rescaling the analyzed increments afterward.

Dee, Dick P.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Threshold effects on V/V(max) for gamma-ray bursts

The interpretation of the observed gamma-ray burst V/V(max) statistic in terms of spatial distributions is model-dependent. Detection of gamma-ray bursts requires the counting rate in one or more detectors to exceed a threshold C(lim) determined from a time-dependent background rate B(t). The sampling depth of the burst detector is thus time-dependent, and, if burst sources are nonuniform in space, the observed V/V(max) distribution will be affected by B(t). We demonstrate this effect with a simple geometric distribution of standard candles and argue that V/V(max) statistic without information on threshold variations is insufficient for rigorous data analysis. Peak count rates and threshold values must be given separately for all events in order to facilitate a meaningful comparison of observations with theoretical distribution models.

Hartmann, D. H.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Planck intermediate results

In this work, we describe an extension of the most recent version of the Planck Catalogue of Compact Sources (PCCS2), produced using a new multi-band Bayesian Extraction and Estimation Package (BeeP). BeeP assumes that the compact sources present in PCCS2 at 857 GHz have a dust-like spectral energy distribution (SED), which leads to emission at both lower and higher frequencies, and adjusts the parameters of the source and its SED to fit the emission observed in Planck’s three highest frequency channels at 353, 545, and 857 GHz, as well as the IRIS map at 3000 GHz. In order to reduce confusion regarding diffuse cirrus emission, BeeP’s data model includes a description of the background emission surrounding each source, and it adjusts the confidence in the source parameter extraction based on the statistical properties of the spatial distribution of the background emission. BeeP produces the following three new sets of parameters for each source: (a) fits to a modified blackbody (MBB) thermal emission model of the source; (b) SED-independent source flux densities at each frequency considered; and (c) fits to an MBB model of the background in which the source is embedded. BeeP also calculates, for each source, a reliability parameter, which takes into account confusion due to the surrounding cirrus. This parameter can be used to extract sub-samples of high-frequency sources with statistically well-understood properties. We define a high-reliability subset (BeeP/base), containing 26 083 sources (54.1% of the total PCCS2 catalogue), the majority of which have no information on reliability in the PCCS2. We describe the characteristics of this specific high-quality subset of PCCS2 and its validation against other data sets, specifically for: the sub-sample of PCCS2 located in low-cirrus areas; the Planck Catalogue of Galactic Cold Clumps; the Herschel GAMA15-field catalogue; and the temperature- and spectral-index-reconstructed dust maps obtained with Planck’s Generalized Needlet Internal Linear Combination method. The results of the BeeP extension of PCCS2, which are made publicly available via the Planck Legacy Archive, will enable the study of the thermal properties of well-defined samples of compact Galactic and extragalactic dusty sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The impact of long-range dispersal on gene surfing

Range expansions lead to distinctive patterns of genetic variation in populations, even in the absence of selection. These patterns and their genetic consequences have been well studied for populations advancing through successive short-ranged migration events. However, most populations harbor some degree of long-range dispersal, experiencing rare yet consequential migration events over arbitrarily long distances. Although dispersal is known to strongly affect spatial genetic structure during range expansions, the resulting patterns and their impact on neutral diversity remain poorly understood. Here, we systematically study the consequences of long-range dispersal on patterns of neutral variation during range expansion in a class of dispersal models which spans the extremes of local (effectively short-ranged) and global (effectively well-mixed) migration. We find that sufficiently long-ranged dispersal leaves behind a mosaic of monoallelic patches, whose number and size are highly sensitive to the distribution of dispersal distances. We develop a coarse-grained model which connects statistical features of these spatial patterns to the evolution of neutral diversity during the range expansion. We show that growth mechanisms that appear qualitatively similar can engender vastly different outcomes for diversity: Depending on the tail of the dispersal distance distribution, diversity can be either preserved (i.e., many variants survive) or lost (i.e., one variant dominates) at long times. Our results highlight the impact of spatial and migratory structure on genetic variation during processes as varied as range expansions, species invasions, epidemics, and the spread of beneficial mutations in established populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Canadian and Alaskan Wildfire Smoke Particle Properties, Their Evolution and Controlling Factors, From Satellite Observations

The optical and chemical properties of biomass burning (BB) smoke particles greatly affect the impact that wildfires have on climate and air quality. Previous work has demonstrated some links between smoke properties and factors such as fuel type and meteorology. However, the factors controlling BB particle speciation at emission are not adequately understood nor are the factors driving particle aging during atmospheric transport. As such, modeling wildfire smoke impacts on climate and air quality remains challenging. The potential to provide robust, statistical characterizations of BB particles based on ecosystem type and ambient environmental conditions with remote sensing data is investigated here. Space-based Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) observations, combined with the MISR Research Aerosol (RA) algorithm and the MISR Interactive Explorer (MINX) tool, are used to retrieve smoke plume aerosol optical depth (AOD) and to provide constraints on plume vertical extent; smoke age; and particle size, shape, light-absorption properties, and absorption spectral dependence. These tools are applied to numerous wildfire plumes in Canada and Alaska, across a range of conditions, to create a regional inventory of BB particle-type temporal and spatial distribution. We then statistically compare these results with satellite measurements of fire radiative power (FRP) and land cover characteristics, as well as short-term climate, meteorological, and drought information from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) reanalysis and the North American Drought Monitor. We find statistically significant differences in the retrieved smoke properties based on land cover type, with fires in forests producing the thickest plumes containing the largest, brightest particles and fires in savannas and grasslands exhibiting the opposite. Additionally, the inferred dominant aging mechanisms and the timescales over which they occur vary systematically between land types. This work demonstrates the potential of remote sensing to constrain BB particle properties and the mechanisms governing their evolution over entire ecosystems. It also begins to realize this potential, as a means of improving regional and global climate and air quality modeling in a rapidly changing world.

Katherine T. Junghenn Noyes↗
NASA NTRS1980

Interfaces between statistical analysis packages and the ESRI geographic information system

Interfaces between ESRI's geographic information system (GIS) data files and real valued data files written to facilitate statistical analysis and display of spatially referenced multivariable data are described. An example of data analysis which utilized the GIS and the statistical analysis system is presented to illustrate the utility of combining the analytic capability of a statistical package with the data management and display features of the GIS.

Masuoka, E.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Statistical Framework for Evaluating Rain Microphysics in Model Simulations and Disdrometer Observations

Abstract Statistical analyses of a large disdrometer data set and a diverse set of model simulations for convection using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System were conducted, with the mutual goal of providing insights into precipitation formation and microphysical processes. We demonstrate that a two‐moment bulk microphysical model successfully captures the dominant observed modes of variability in rainfall related to rainfall intensity and raindrop size distributions. The model reproduced the general distribution of observed precipitation groups (PGs) derived from Principal Component Analysis. The multi‐variable analysis also uncovered some shortcomings in the model as well as limitations of the disdrometer data. The model solutions were constrained in their predicted drop size distributions (DSDs) due to the fixed DSD parameters assumed in a two‐moment microphysics scheme. A case study from the Mid‐latitude Continental Clouds and Convection Experiment field project demonstrated how model results can be used to contextualize the disdrometer observations which are limited in sample size, spatial coherence, and detection of small drops and low drop concentrations. The case study also showed that the spatial patterns of the statistically derived PGs revealed by the model are consistent with the hypothesized microphysical processes that determine surface rain DSDs. This work demonstrates how leveraging the strengths of observations and models together can improve our understanding and representation of rain microphysical processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Parametric, Frequency-Domain Approach for Clutter Analysis & Rejection in Remote Sensing

A novel approach is presented for parametric analysis of remotely-sensed ground and cloud clutter. A spatial-frequency-domain clutter model is generated from an extensive, one-year database of weather imagery and statistics are given for each spatial frequency. This approach is useful for the analysis and design of spatial and temporal clutter-rejection filters, which can also be analyzed in this domain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1982

Estimation of context for statistical classification of multispectral image data

Recent investigations have demonstrated the effectiveness of a contextual classifier that combines spatial and spectral information employing a general statistical approach. This statistical classification algorithm exploits the tendency of certain ground cover classes to occur more frequently in some spatial contexts than in others. Indeed, a key input to this algorithm is a statistical characterization of the context: the context function. An unbiased estimator of the context function is discussed which, besides having the advantage of statistical unbiasedness, has the additional advantage over other estimation techniques of being amenable to an adaptive implementation in which the context-function estimate varies according to local contextual information. Results from applying the unbiased estimator to the contextual classification of three real Landsat data sets are presented and contrasted with results from noncontextual classifications and from contextual classifications utilizing other context-function estimation techniques.

Tilton, J. C.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Special Issue: Geostatistics and Machine Learning

Abstract Recent years have seen a steady growth in the number of papers that apply machine learning methods to problems in the earth sciences. Although they have different origins, machine learning and geostatistics share concepts and methods. For example, the kriging formalism can be cast in the machine learning framework of Gaussian process regression. Machine learning, with its focus on algorithms and ability to seek, identify, and exploit hidden structures in big data sets, is providing new tools for exploration and prediction in the earth sciences. Geostatistics, on the other hand, offers interpretable models of spatial (and spatiotemporal) dependence. This special issue on Geostatistics and Machine Learning aims to investigate applications of machine learning methods as well as hybrid approaches combining machine learning and geostatistics which advance our understanding and predictive ability of spatial processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimation of soil classes and their relationship to grapevine vigor in a Bordeaux vineyard: advancing the practical joint use of electromagnetic induction (EMI) and NDVI datasets for precision viticulture

Working within a vineyard in the Pessac Léognan Appellation of Bordeaux, France, this study documents the potential of using simple statistical methods with spatially-resolved and increasingly available electromagnetic induction (EMI) geophysical and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) datasets to accurately estimate Bordeaux vineyard soil classes and to quantitatively explore the relationship between vineyard soil types and grapevine vigor. First, co-located electrical tomographic tomography (ERT) and EMI datasets were compared to gain confidence about how the EMI method averaged soil properties over the grapevine rooting depth. Then, EMI data were used with core soil texture and soil-pit based interpretations of Bordeaux soil types (Brunisol, Redoxisol, Colluviosol and Calcosol) to estimate the spatial distribution of geophysically-identified Bordeaux soil classes. A strong relationship (r = 0.75, p < 0.01) was revealed between the geophysically-identified Bordeaux soil classes and NDVI (both 2 m resolution), showing that the highest grapevine vigor was associated with the Bordeaux soil classes having the largest clay fraction. The results suggest that within-block variability of grapevine vigor was largely controlled by variability in soil classes, and that carefully collected EMI and NDVI datasets can be exceedingly helpful for providing quantitative estimates of vineyard soil and vigor variability, as well as their covariation. The method is expected to be transferable to other viticultural regions, providing an approach to use easy-to-acquire, high resolution datasets to guide viticultural practices, including routine management and replanting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Scalable computations for nonstationary Gaussian processes

Nonstationary Gaussian process models can capture complex spatially varying dependence structures in spatial datasets. However, the large number of observations in modern datasets makes fitting such models computationally intractable with conventional dense linear algebra. In addition, derivative-free or even first-order optimization methods can be very slow to converge when estimating many spatially varying parameters. In this paper, we present a computational framework which couples an algebraic block diagonal plus low-rank covariance matrix approximation with stochastic trace estimation to facilitate the efficient use of second-order solvers for maximum likelihood estimation of Gaussian process models with many parameters. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these methods by simultaneously fitting 192 parameters in the popular nonstationary model of Paciorek and Schervish using 107,600 sea surface temperature anomaly measurements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Benchmarking structural evolution methods for training of machine learned interatomic potentials

When creating training data for machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs), it is common to create initial structures and evolve them using molecular dynamics (MD) to sample a larger configuration space. Here, we benchmark two other modalities of evolving structures, contour exploration (CE) and dimer-method (DM) searches against MD for their ability to produce diverse and robust density functional theory training data sets for MLIPs. We also discuss the generation of initial structures which are either from known structures or from random structures in detail to further formalize the structure-sourcing processes in the future. The polymorph-rich zirconium-oxygen composition space is used as a rigorous benchmark system for comparing the performance of MLIPs trained on structures generated from these structural evolution methods. Using Behler–Parrinello neural networks as our MLIP models, we find that CE and the DM searches are generally superior to MD in terms of spatial descriptor diversity and statistical accuracy.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nano-infrared imaging of metal insulator transition in few-layer 1T-TaS 2

Abstract Among the family of transition metal dichalcogenides, 1T-TaS 2 stands out for several peculiar physical properties including a rich charge density wave phase diagram, quantum spin liquid candidacy and low temperature Mott insulator phase. As 1T-TaS 2 is thinned down to the few-layer limit, interesting physics emerges in this quasi 2D material. Here, using scanning near-field optical microscopy, we perform a spatial- and temperature-dependent study on the phase transitions of a few-layer thick microcrystal of 1T-TaS 2 . We investigate encapsulated air-sensitive 1T-TaS 2 prepared under inert conditions down to cryogenic temperatures. We find an abrupt metal-to-insulator transition in this few-layer limit. Our results provide new insight in contrast to previous transport studies on thin 1T-TaS 2 where the resistivity jump became undetectable, and to spatially resolved studies on non-encapsulated samples which found a gradual, spatially inhomogeneous transition. A statistical analysis suggests bimodal high and low temperature phases, and that the characteristic phase transition hysteresis is preserved down to a few-layer limit.

42 ENGINEERING↗