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At least 199 records · Page 11

Source-Resolved Inversion of Elemental Carbon Emissions in California Using Log-Space Bayesian Inference

Elemental carbon (EC), operationally quantified by thermal-optical analysis, is widely used as a proxy for black carbon (BC) relevant to short-term climate forcing and public health. Current EC emission inventories remain highly uncertain, with persistent discrepancies between bottom-up and top-down estimates. In this study, we develop a source-resolved, log-space Bayesian inversion framework applied to estimate California’s statewide EC emissions in 2019. By integrating surface EC measurements from the EPA’s Air Quality System network with high-resolution source contributions simulated by a chemical transport model, we identify a one-third underestimation in the existing statewide EC inventory, requiring an increase of the total from a prior of 8.58 [5.49–13.75] Gg year–1 to a posterior estimate of 12.78 [10.71–15.37] Gg year–1. This discrepancy is primarily driven by substantial underestimations in the power and industrial and off-road mobile sectors. Furthermore, population-weighted exposure analysis reveals a marked sectoral divergence between emission mass and health burden: off-road mobile sources dominate both emissions and exposure, accounting for 31% of statewide exposure, while residential wood combustion contributes 26% of total exposure despite comprising only 19% of total emissions, due to its source proximity to population. These findings underscore the need to update sector-specific EC speciation profiles and demonstrate that mitigation strategies targeting off-road mobile sources and residential wood combustion are critical for reducing EC-related health impacts in California.

Zhang, Jie↗

Chlorine bleaches - A significant long term source of mercury pollution

Products of industrial electrolysis of brine - NaOCl-based bleaches and NaOH - yielded 17 to 1290 ppb of Hg upon flameless atomic absorption analysis. Compared with current U.S. rejection value of 5 ppb for potable waters, the above levels seem sufficiently high to be a matter of environmental concern.

Siegel, S. M.↗

Demonstration of non-destructive and isotope-sensitive material analysis using a short-pulsed laser-driven epi-thermal neutron source

Neutrons are a valuable tool for non-destructive material investigation as their interaction cross sections with matter are isotope sensitive and can be used complementary to x-rays. So far, most neutron applications have been limited to large-scale facilities such as nuclear research reactors, spallation sources, and accelerator-driven neutron sources. Here we show the design and optimization of a laser-driven neutron source in the epi-thermal and thermal energy range, which is used for non-invasive material analysis. Neutron resonance spectroscopy, neutron radiography, and neutron resonance imaging with moderated neutrons are demonstrated for investigating samples in terms of isotope composition and thickness. The experimental results encourage applications in non-destructive and isotope-sensitive material analysis and pave the way for compact laser-driven neutron sources with high application potential.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Assessment of Microreactor Safety Analysis Challenges and Recommendations for Utilization of the Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle

To enable the broad deployment of microreactors in fundamentally new application regimes (i.e., mobile and autonomous operations), their safety must be indisputable in terms of possessing inherent resistance to severe offsite dose consequences. Therefore, mechanistic beyond-design-basis event source term calculations that demonstrate a sufficiently large margin of safety will be required to accommodate these new application regimes, which have no history of commercial regulation. Even for traditional reactor operation configurations, safety analysis expertise and familiarity with accident phenomena and conditions in microreactors—specifically those with heat pipe primary cooling arrangements—are lacking compared with other advanced reactor concepts and small modular reactors. Recently, modeling and simulation tools to account for unique heat pipe design aspects have been developed by Sandia National Laboratories with MELCOR and by the US Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Office of Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation Program with BlueCRAB. However, further demonstration and assessment of potential knowledge gaps are needed to support these codes’ broad usage by the microreactor community. Through the DOE Microreactor Program, an initial assessment of these two tools and guidance on how an evaluation model could be constructed was performed and is reported herein. Moreover, a proposed approach for demonstrating an evaluation model using these two tools is outlined.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Impact of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument Row Anomaly on the Long-Term Record of Aerosol Products

Since about three years after the launch the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on the EOS-Aura satellite, the sensor's viewing capability has been affected by what is believed to be an internal obstruction that has reduced OMI's spatial coverage. It currently affects about half of the instrument's 60 viewing positions. In this work we carry out an analysis to assess the effect of the reduced spatial coverage on the monthly average values of retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD), single scattering albedo (SSA) and the UV Aerosol Index (UVAI) using the 2005-2007 three-year period prior to the onset of the row anomaly. Regional monthly average values calculated using viewing positions 1 through 30 were compared to similarly obtained values using positions 31 through 60, with the expectation of finding close agreement between the two calculations. As expected, mean monthly values of AOD and SSA obtained with these two scattering-angle dependent subsets of OMI observations agreed over regions where carbonaceous or sulphate aerosol particles are the predominant aerosol type. However, over arid regions, where desert dust is the main aerosol type, significant differences between the two sets of calculated regional mean values of AOD were observed. As it turned out, the difference in retrieved desert dust AOD between the scattering-angle dependent observation subsets was due to the incorrect representation of desert dust scattering phase function. A sensitivity analysis using radiative transfer calculations demonstrated that the source of the observed AOD bias was the spherical shape assumption of desert dust particles. A similar analysis in terms of UVAI yielded large differences in the monthly mean values for the two sets of calculations over cloudy regions. On the contrary, in arid regions with minimum cloud presence, the resulting UVAI monthly average values for the two sets of observations were in very close agreement. The discrepancy under cloudy conditions was found to be caused by the parameterization of clouds as opaque Lambertian reflectors. When properly accounting for cloud scattering effects using Mie theory, the observed UVAI angular bias was significantly reduced. The analysis discussed here has uncovered important algorithmic deficiencies associated with the model representation of the angular dependence of scattering effects of desert dust aerosols and cloud droplets. The resulting improvements in the handling of desert dust and cloud scattering have been incorporated in an improved version of the OMAERUV algorithm.

Atmospheric Chemistry↗

Nonlinear analysis of longitudinal-mode liquid propellant rocket combustion instability

A computational technique for the nonlinear analysis of longitudinal-mode liquid propellant rocket combustion instability is examined based on the unsteady, quasi-one-dimensional Euler equations with appropriate source terms introduced to account for interphase transport coupling with the spray. The method is first assessed for unsteady, nonreacting, isentropic duct flow with specified admittances at the outflow and inflow boundaries. For small amplitude disturbances, numerical results based on a sufficient number of grid points compare favorably with predictions from a small-disturbance linearized analysis.

Jeng, San-Mou↗

Aerosols in the Atmosphere: Sources, Transport, and Multi-decadal Trends

We present our recent studies with global modeling and analysis of atmospheric aerosols. We have used the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model and satellite and in situ data to investigate (1) long-term variations of aerosols over polluted and dust source regions and downwind ocean areas in the past three decades and the cause of the changes and (2) anthropogenic and volcanic contributions to the sulfate aerosol in the upper tropospherelower stratosphere.

Chin, M.↗

Inverse heat transfer analysis of Bridgman crystal growth

The effects of asymmetry in furnace temperature profile and pulling velocity on the crystal interface shape are demonstrated while neglecting the latent heat of solidification. It is seen that the furnace temperature profile may be varied in order to influence the shape of the melt-crystal interface. An exact thermal analysis is then performed on the Bridgman technique by including the latent heat of solidification as a source term. The exact temperature field required for yielding a flat melt-crystal interface is obtained. The earlier observation regarding the influence of furnace temperature profile on the interface shape is confirmed and a criterion for achieving a flat interface is obtained. Various furnace temperature profiles are selected and their corresponding melt-crystal interface results are presented.

Taghavi, K.↗

A full year of aerosol size distribution data from the central Arctic under an extreme positive Arctic Oscillation: insights from the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition

Abstract. The Arctic environment is rapidly changing due to accelerated warming in the region. The warming trend is driving a decline in sea ice extent, which thereby enhances feedback loops in the surface energy budget in the Arctic. Arctic aerosols play an important role in the radiative balance and hence the climate response in the region, yet direct observations of aerosols over the Arctic Ocean are limited. In this study, we investigate the annual cycle in the aerosol particle number size distribution (PNSD), particle number concentration (PNC), and black carbon (BC) mass concentration in the central Arctic during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition. This is the first continuous, year-long data set of aerosol PNSD ever collected over the sea ice in the central Arctic Ocean. We use a k-means cluster analysis, FLEXPART simulations, and inverse modeling to evaluate seasonal patterns and the influence of different source regions on the Arctic aerosol population. Furthermore, we compare the aerosol observations to land-based sites across the Arctic, using both long-term measurements and observations during the year of the MOSAiC expedition (2019–2020), to investigate interannual variability and to give context to the aerosol characteristics from within the central Arctic. Our analysis identifies that, overall, the central Arctic exhibits typical seasonal patterns of aerosols, including anthropogenic influence from Arctic haze in winter and secondary aerosol processes in summer. The seasonal pattern corresponds to the global radiation, surface air temperature, and timing of sea ice melting/freezing, which drive changes in transport patterns and secondary aerosol processes. In winter, the Norilsk region in Russia/Siberia was the dominant source of Arctic haze signals in the PNSD and BC observations, which contributed to higher accumulation-mode PNC and BC mass concentrations in the central Arctic than at land-based observatories. We also show that the wintertime Arctic Oscillation (AO) phenomenon, which was reported to achieve a record-breaking positive phase during January–March 2020, explains the unusual timing and magnitude of Arctic haze across the Arctic region compared to longer-term observations. In summer, the aerosol PNCs of the nucleation and Aitken modes are enhanced; however, concentrations were notably lower in the central Arctic over the ice pack than at land-based sites further south. The analysis presented herein provides a current snapshot of Arctic aerosol processes in an environment that is characterized by rapid changes, which will be crucial for improving climate model predictions, understanding linkages between different environmental processes, and investigating the impacts of climate change in future Arctic aerosol studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ECAR 4951 BSU-8242 3 DPA As-Run Physics Analysis

The purpose of this report is to document the as-run physics analysis for the Boise State University (BSU-8242) experiment in the A6, A7 and A8 positions, correlating with the 3 DPA specimens irradiated in Cycles 164A, 164B, and 166A. In this paper the heat rate, flux, fluence, and DPA for all specimens are scaled to the appropriate as-run lobe powers for an accurate assessment and description of the irradiated materials. Source terms per capsule are provided, and a bounded source term per specimen type is given on a per gram basis. Verified and validated MCNP full-core models were used for the neutronics analysis.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Nonintrusive manufactured solutions for ablation

The study of heat transfer and ablation plays an important role in many problems of scientific and engineering interest. As with the computational simulation of any physical phenomenon, the first step toward establishing credibility in ablation simulations involves code verification. Code verification is typically performed using exact and manufactured solutions. However, manufactured solutions generally require the invasive introduction of an artificial forcing term within the source code such that the code solves a modified problem for which the solution is known. In this paper, we present a nonintrusive method for manufacturing solutions for a non-decomposing ablation code, which does not require the addition of a source term.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Aerosols in the atmosphere: Sources, transport, and multi-decadal trends

We present our recent studies with global modeling and analysis of atmospheric aerosols. We have used the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model and satellite and in-situ data to investigate (1) long-term variations of aerosols over polluted and dust source regions and downwind ocean areas in the past three decades and the cause of the changes, (2) anthropogenic and volcanic contributions to the sulfate aerosol in the upper tropospherelower stratosphere, and (3) intercontinental transport of aerosols and its possible influence on regional air qualiy and climate.

Mian Chin↗

Education for PV Modeling Professionals: Observations from the 2025 PVPMC Workshop

We surveyed professionals in the photovoltaic industry to understand interests in education and training for performance modeling of solar power systems. We found that most professionals are self-taught and rely on a variety of public sources of technical materials. Available formal education, such as courses or certification programs, either lacks detail or is focused on software user training. Responses indicate several opportunities to create public resources that would benefit professional learning for solar power system modeling: • Create a glossary of terms and common variable names. • Develop guidance on uncertainty analysis in the context of solar power systems modeling. • Assemble a catalog of available educational materials and data sources.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

International market assessment of stand-alone photovoltaic power systems for cottage industry applications

The final result of an international assessment of the market for stand-alone photovoltaic systems in cottage industry applications is reported. Nonindustrialized countries without centrally planned economies were considered. Cottage industries were defined as small rural manufacturers, employing less than 50 people, producing consumer and simple products. The data to support this analysis were obtained from secondary and expert sources in the U.S. and in-country field investigations of the Philippines and Mexico. The near-term market for photovoltaics for rural cottage industry applications appears to be limited to demonstration projects and pilot programs, based on an in-depth study of the nature of cottage industry, its role in the rural economy, the electric energy requirements of cottage industry, and a financial analysis of stand-alone photovoltaic systems as compared to their most viable competitor, diesel driven generators. Photovoltaics are shown to be a better long-term option only for very low power requirements. Some of these uses would include clay mixers, grinders, centrifuges, lathes, power saws and lighting of a workshop.

Philippi, T. M.↗

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from analytic models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as technology and infrastructure deployment, to global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require the designers of these models to trade off between coverage and resolution. Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses but at a relatively coarse level of resolution. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers by endogenously projecting prices for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This global model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy released by the White House in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide decarbonization discussions and strategy development for decades. Other models instead focus on a portion of the energy sector with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects capacity expansion with an emphasis on integration of variable renewable energy into the grid of the future. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices in adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies in the United States. These global and sector-specific modeling approaches can complement each other. The global approach ensures consistent, endogenous energy pricing and resource allocation, which can substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios, while the sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and tradeoffs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and discusses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

SBUV version 8.6 Retrieval Algorithm: Error Analysis and Validation Technique

SBUV version 8.6 algorithm was used to reprocess data from the Back Scattered Ultra Violet (BUV), the Solar Back Scattered Ultra Violet (SBUV) and a number of SBUV/2 instruments, which 'span a 41-year period from 1970 to 2011 (except a 5-year gap in the 1970s)[see Bhartia et al, 2012]. In the new version Daumont et al. [1992] ozone cross section were used, and new ozone [McPeters et ai, 2007] and cloud climatologies Doiner and Bhartia, 1995] were implemented. The algorithm uses the Optimum Estimation technique [Rodgers, 2000] to retrieve ozone profiles as ozone layer (partial column, DU) on 21 pressure layers. The corresponding total ozone values are calculated by summing ozone columns at individual layers. The algorithm is optimized to accurately retrieve monthly zonal mean (mzm) profiles rather than an individual profile, since it uses monthly zonal mean ozone climatology as the A Priori. Thus, the SBUV version 8.6 ozone dataset is better suited for long-term trend analysis and monitoring ozone changes rather than for studying short-term ozone variability. Here we discuss some characteristics of the SBUV algorithm and sources of error in the SBUV profile and total ozone retrievals. For the first time the Averaging Kernels, smoothing errors and weighting functions (or Jacobians) are included in the SBUV metadata. The Averaging Kernels (AK) represent the sensitivity of the retrieved profile to the true state and contain valuable information about the retrieval algorithm, such as Vertical Resolution, Degrees of Freedom for Signals (DFS) and Retrieval Efficiency [Rodgers, 2000]. Analysis of AK for mzm ozone profiles shows that the total number of DFS for ozone profiles varies from 4.4 to 5.5 out of 6-9 wavelengths used for retrieval. The number of wavelengths in turn depends on solar zenith angles. Between 25 and 0.5 hPa, where SBUV vertical resolution is the highest, DFS for individual layers are about 0.5.

Kramarova, N. A.↗

A Comparison of As-loaded Dose Calculations to Measured Dose Rates

Demonstrating that the radiation dose fields surrounding spent nuclear fuel (SNF) storage and transportation systems meet the applicable limits set forth in 10 CFR 72 for storage and 10 CFR 71 for transportation is essential for the safe handling of radioactive material. The Used Nuclear Fuel-Storage, Transportation, and Disposal Analysis Resource and Data System (UNF-ST&DARDS) [2] is used to provide realistic estimates of SNF-related safety margins. The UNF-ST&DARDS dose rate analysis approach differs from that used in typical licensing approaches, which use design-basis assemblies with bounding source term characteristics to demonstrate the packaging design complies with the regulations. These bounding licensing approaches can increase the time needed to qualify fuel for loading into dry storage and the time a loaded system must wait prior to transportation. UNF-ST&DARDS dose rate assessments allow quantification of realistic, uncredited safety margins associated with actual fuel loading compared with the regulatory limits. While realistic estimation of the dose field surrounding SNF systems may allow for additional flexibility in operations, it is essential to understand how these predictions compare to measured doses. The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Integrated Waste Management and the Prairie Island Indian Community conducted a transportation dose assessment to estimate the site-specific incident-free radiation doses from shipping SNF by rail from the Prairie Island Nuclear Generating Plant (PINGP) through the Prairie Island Indian Community Reservation and Trust Land [5,6]. For that effort, the dose rates were obtained for 50 TN-40 and TN-40HT systems in storage configurations. This work compares the predicted dose rates from UNF-ST&DARDS as-loaded calculations with dose rates measured from 50 SNF storage systems at PINGP. The remainder of this paper discusses the data obtained for the evaluation, the modeling methods, and the results of the calculations.

spent nuclear fuel (SNF), UNF-ST&DARDS, Validation↗

OH radio observations of comets P/Brorsen-Metcalf (1989o), Okazaki-Levy-Rudenko (1989r), Aarseth-Brewington (1989a1), and Austin (1989c1) at the Nancay radio telescope

The 1667 MHz and 1665 MHz transitions of the OH radical were recently monitored in several comets with the Nancay radio telescope: P/Brorsen-Metcalf (1989o) (August 4 to October 31, 1989), Okazaki-Levy-Rudenko (1989r) (October 3 to December 2, 1989), Aarseth-Brewington (1989a1) (December 8 to 30, 1989), and Austin (1989c1) (February 15 to June 14, 1990). Present gas expansion measurements obtained from the analysis of the line shapes are presented and the long term variations of the water production rate, as measured from the OH radio lines. On October 13, 1989, the occultation of a background source by comet Okazaki-Levy-Rudenko (1989r) was fortuitously observed. A preliminary report of this observation is given. Further analysis of the data is continuing.

Bockelee-Morvan, D.↗