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At least 199 records · Page 11

Potential of hotspot solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence for better tracking terrestrial photosynthesis

Abstract Remote sensing of solar‐induced fluorescence (SIF) opens a new window for quantifying a key ecological variable, the terrestrial ecosystem gross primary production (GPP), because of the revealed strong SIF–GPP correlation. However, similar to many other remotely sensed metrics, SIF observations suffer from the sun‐sensor geometry effects, which may have important impacts on the SIF–GPP relationship but remain poorly understood. Here we used remotely sensed SIF, globally distributed tower GPP data, and a mechanistic model to provide a systematic analysis. Our results reveal that leaf physiology, canopy structure, and sun‐sensor geometries all affect the SIF–GPP relationship. In particular, we found that SIF observations in the sun‐tracking hotspot direction can be a better proxy of GPP due to the similar responses of light use efficiency and SIF escaping probability in the hotspot direction to the increasing incoming solar radiation. Such conclusions are supported by a variety of modeling simulations and satellite observations over various plant function types, at different time scales and with satellite observational modes. This study demonstrates the potential and advantage of normalizing SIF observations to the hotspot direction for better global GPP estimations. This study also demonstrates the great potentials of current and future spaceborne sun‐tracking satellite missions for a significant improvement in measuring and monitoring, at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, the changes in terrestrial ecosystem GPP in response to anticipated changes in the Earth's environmental conditions.

Hao, Dalei↗

Shifting from Fossil Fuel Reliance to Green Energy Sovereignty: Ute Mountain Ute Tribe

Self-determination has been an on-going effort for Native American people and gained much traction with the passing of The Energy Policy Act of 2005, which included the Indian Tribal Energy Development and Self-Determination Act. Congress passed this act to assist Native American tribes and Alaska Native villages with planning, development, and assistance to achieve their energy goals. The Ute Mountain Ute Tribe (UMUT) has relied on oil and natural gas for economic support the last 70 years. Burning fossil fuels, along with oil and gas development, decreases the quality of air and leads to increased greenhouse gas emissions. Subsequently, the burning of fossil fuels to produce energy is now more costly than many renewable energy sources, including solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Environmental stewardship, along with the need to maintain revenue generation, has led UMUT’s efforts to achieve energy self-determinism employing PV and exploring other technology. In the past, the tribe completed a 1 megawatt PV project near Towaoc, Colorado, which serves as a case study on the tribe’s energy goals: a future where renewables will dominate their energy landscape. This paper explores UMUT’s past and on-going efforts toward energy independence and how it relates to the broader landscape of Native American energy sovereignty.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Energy and Carbon Payback Times for Modern U.S. Utility Photovoltaic Systems

Manufacturing and operating a PV system consumes non-renewable energy and produces carbon emissions, as does end-of-life handling when PV systems are eventually decommissioned. To fully account for PV's contribution toward decarbonization, these life cycle impacts must be quantified. A 2023 NREL LCA of utility PV systems in the United States Study show energy payback times between 0.5 and 1.2 years and carbon payback times between 0.8 to 20 years, depending on the system install location. Payback times are affected by the amount of local solar radiation, and carbon payback time is significantly affected by the carbon-intensity of the local grid it offsets, as well as the future projected grid mix for the location it is installed. In an average U.S. location, carbon payback times are less than 2 years.

carbon payback time↗

Defining a compact dry cooler design to reduce LCOE contribution in a CSP facility

Concentrating solar power (CSP), when coupled with a supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) power cycle and sensible heat storage, presents a renewable and clean alternative for utility-scale power generation. However, in order to be competitive in the current and future markets, CSP facilities must limit their levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) by minimizing capital costs and reducing operating costs over the lifetime of the plant. Targeting this goal, this study investigates the LCOE impact of the power cycle pre-cooler. This study considers a compact dry cooler with micro-channel technology on the CO 2 side and formed fin geometry on the air side, using directly-coupled centrifugal fans and a transition duct to improve air distribution across the fins as well as protect the fins from contaminants which may cause blockage, soiling, fouling, and damage. In an effort to better understand the dry cooler impact on LCOE, a sensitivity study was conducted using various combinations of end-to-end approach temperatures, air-side pressure drop values, CO 2 -side pressure drop values, fan types, cooler turndown control schemes, cooler module sizes, and design-point ambient temperatures. Furthemore, off-design cycle performance data was calculated for each dry cooler design using NPSS simulation software; cycle performance data were then input to System Advisor Model (SAM) along with the associated capital costs for LCOE prediction of a 100 MW system over a 30 year plant lifetime. Results of this study show the LCOE is most sensitive to air-side performance, followed by heat transfer effectiveness and capital cost. It was found that a power cycle with a mid- to high-performance dry cooler will produce the most competitive power-production costs. Designing at the extreme ends for approach temperature (or effectiveness), design-point ambient temperature, and compactness (footprint) produce higher LCOE values; mid-range values for these parameters balance performance, operating costs, and associated capital cost to optimize LCOE.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Moving Beyond 4-Hour Li-Ion Batteries: Challenges and Opportunities for Long(er)-Duration Energy Storage

This report is a continuation of the Storage Futures Study and explores the factors driving the transition from recent storage deployments with four or fewer hours to deployments of storage with greater than four hours. The report specifically builds on the first publication in the Storage Futures Study series, The Four Phases of Storage Deployment: A Framework for the Expanding Role of Storage in the U.S. Power System, that established a conceptual framework of roles and opportunities for new, cost-competitive stationary energy storage over the course of four phases of current and potential future storage deployment. This latest publication delves into Phases 2 and 3 when solar photovoltaics and storage increase the value of each other, and lower costs and technology improvements enable storage to be cost-competitive while serving longer-duration applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Impact of Stochastic Perturbations in Physics Variables for Predicting Surface Solar Irradiance

We present a probabilistic framework tailored for solar energy applications referred to as the Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS). WRF-Solar EPS has been developed by introducing stochastic perturbations into the most relevant physical variables for solar irradiance predictions. In this study, we comprehensively discuss the impact of the stochastic perturbations of WRF-Solar EPS on solar irradiance forecasting compared to a deterministic WRF-Solar prediction (WRF-Solar DET), a stochastic ensemble using the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS), and a WRF-Solar multi-physics ensemble (WRF-Solar PHYS). The performances of the four forecasts are evaluated using irradiance retrievals from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) over the contiguous United States. We focus on the predictability of the day-ahead solar irradiance forecasts during the year of 2018. The results show that the ensemble forecasts improve the quality of the forecasts, compared to the deterministic prediction system, by accounting for the uncertainty derived by the ensemble members. However, the three ensemble systems are under-dispersive, producing unreliable and overconfident forecasts due to a lack of calibration. In particular, WRF-Solar EPS produces less optically thick clouds than the other forecasts, which explains the larger positive bias in WRF-Solar EPS (31.7 W/m 2 ) than in the other models (22.7–23.6 W/m 2 ). This study confirms that the WRF-Solar EPS reduced the forecast error by 7.5% in terms of the mean absolute error (MAE) compared to WRF-Solar DET, and provides in-depth comparisons of forecast abilities with the conventional scientific probabilistic approaches (i.e., SKEBS and a multi-physics ensemble). Guidelines for improving the performance of WRF-Solar EPS in the future are provided.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Modeling receiver flux of commercial power tower concentrating solar power plants using ray tracing: a round-robin comparison of SolTrace, Solstice, and TieSOL

This study presents a multi-stage, cross-validation comparison of three software packages for Monte Carlo ray tracing (MCRT) applied to central tower concentrating solar power (CSP) systems. The three packages evaluated are: (1) SolTrace, an open-source tool developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL); (2) Solstice, an open-source program created by CNRS-PROMES and Meso-Star, with enhancements for CSP applications (called solsticepy) from the Australian National University; and (3) TieSOL, a commercial software developed by Tietronix. This investigation extends previous ray tracing comparisons by incorporating models of multi-facet heliostats within a commercial-scale solar field, taking into account zoned focal lengths and canting configurations. Receiver flux distributions were compared across the tools using a series of case studies, including single-heliostat scenarios, isolated blocking situations, and comprehensive full-field simulations. The case studies were designed to diagnose differences across the models at varying levels of complexity, and to identify and resolve discrepancies as additional parameters were introduced. Key factors examined in the analysis include sun positions, heliostat location, facet and canting focus, and aimpoint strategies. The comparison aims to improve the accuracy and reliability of these tools while providing benchmark cases for validating future optical modeling tools.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Chapter 1.18 - The Promise of Perovskite Solar Cells

Perovskite solar cells (PSCs) based on a new class of semiconductors - organic and inorganic hybrid halide perovskites - have emerged as a disruptive photovoltaic (PV) technology that is potentially cost-effective, scalable, and highly efficient, with an expectation for future deployment at terawatt scale. This new PV technology has drawn significant R&D attention from academics and industries as an alternate to compete with traditional PV technologies to help mitigate challenges associated with global energy demand. The synthesis of the hybrid halide perovskites was reported in the 1970s. The structural knowledge, solution processing and optoelectronic characteristics of this hybrid material family were further studied in the 1990s. It is until 2009-2012 when the use of methylammonium lead triiodide (MAPbI3) was first demonstrated in PV cells worldwide researchers have started to show a general interest in using hybrid halide perovskites for PV and other optoelectronic applications.

perovskite↗

Spatiotemporal Super-Resolution with Generative Machine Learning for Creating Renewable Energy Resource Data Under Climate Change Scenarios

As we plan for a future with higher penetrations of renewables and increasing electrification, it becomes more important to understand how the electricity grid will operate under a variety of weather events. We must also consider that the weather our future grid will experience will be different and possibly more extreme than the historical weather that we have extensive data for. We can use data from global climate models (GCMs) to help understand how our climate may change over the next several decades, but there is often a significant gap between the low-resolution GCM data and the high-resolution weather data required to study power systems under specific weather events. Therefore, our objective in this work is to develop tools that can bridge this gap by using low-resolution GCM data to create realistic high-resolution weather datasets that can be used to study renewable energy generation and electricity demand. To accomplish this objective, we have developed a set of generative machine learning models that can rapidly downscale GCM daily average output data at an approximate grid resolution of 100km to hourly data at an approximate 4 km grid resolution. The models can be used to create high resolution data from nearly any GCM included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 5 or 6. Our methods include all datasets regularly used to study the integration of wind and solar power plants as well as changes in electricity demand due to heating and cooling loads. These models and datasets enable power systems modelers to study climate change-influenced weather events and their impact on the grid. We have downscaled and validated wind, solar, temperature, and humidity data with very promising results. The generative machine learning methods are computationally efficient and produce data that has similar statistical characteristics to current state-of-the-art historical datasets. We have trained initial generative models and produced an initial dataset collectively referred to as Sup3rCC: Super-Resolved Renewable Energy Resource Data with Climate Change Impacts. The data covers a (mostly) historical period from 2015-2025 and a future period from 2050-2059. We have also taken hypothetical high-electrification load data and scaled the heating and cooling loads with respect to the 2050-2059 high-resolution Sup3rCC meteorology. The results show how future levels of renewable energy generation and electrified load may be impacted by climate change, setting the stage for capacity expansion models to consider a dynamic climate through model years.

climate change↗

Toward an Electromagnetic Event Resilient Grid

The motivation for writing this article is that the threat of a large-scale electromagnetic event having a negative impact on the electric grid is real. Whether human-caused, via the detonation of a nuclear device, or natural, via a high-intensity burst of solar radiation, our historic experience with these phenomena indicates that as a global community, we should be prepared for such events and know how to mitigate their impacts. Current studies and related discussions provide a wide range of damage assessments for these events. We recommend continuing current technical investigations and research as well as strengthening collaboration between stakeholders and experts. This would ensure future threats are addressed in a timely and effective manner.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Energy Model of an Air Source Heat Pump to Explore Performance Improvements under Cold Conditions: A Python Framework: Preprint

Replacing combustion appliances with heat pumps can be part of a strategy to electrify buildings. When their electricity is supplied by renewables, the adoption of heat pumps for space heating may help curb the carbon dioxide emissions inherent to traditional heating systems that burn natural gas or coal. When operating in very cold climates, however, heat pump performance deteriorates, sometimes requiring backup heating supplied by electric resistances or other sources to continue to function. To avoid the use of electric resistances, complementary technologies, like thermal energy storage, solar collectors, or alternative refrigerants, have been explored in recent years. In this study, we present an open-source Python-based numerical model developed to evaluate the annual hourly performance of an air source heat pump (ASHP) operating in the USA. Simulation results include coefficient of performance and heating capacity. The model, validated with experimental results, will be employed in the future to investigate the feasibility of integrating thermal energy storage and other technologies into ASHPs operating in cold climates.

cold climate↗

Large Scale Pumped Storage to Support Renewable Deployment; PSH Resource Assessment and Complementary Analysis for Alaska

The State of Alaska has a rather unique electric power system, as it has two larger transmission grids (Railbelt and Southeast Alaska) and over 150 islanded stand-alone power systems that are serving remote rural communities. In 2010, the Alaska legislature enacted a non-binding goal for 50% of renewable electricity generation by 2025. With the expected increase in wind and solar generation in the future, the role of energy storage becomes increasingly important. Considering the specific power system characteristics in Alaska, energy storage technologies that can supply electricity over an extended period of time, such as pumped storage hydropower (PSH), may play a key role in enabling the reliability and resiliency of both integrated and rural power systems. The overarching objective of the subject study of this presentation is to investigate the prospects and opportunities for PSH in Alaska.

Alaska↗

Modeling Methods for Capturing System Interactions of Combined Technologies: A Study of PV + Battery

The costs of solar photovoltaics (PV) have been dropping in recent years, leading to increasing installations of solar PV systems and growing interest in how the technology will impact the electric grid at higher penetrations. Additionally, as battery costs decline it becomes important to understand the benefits and limitations of battery storage for the grid as well as potential benefits of co-locating battery storage and PV, particularly within the realm of future system planning. However, it is non-trivial to capture these potential benefits within a linearized capacity expansion model (CEM). This paper presents methodological developments to more fully represent the value and limitations of coupled PV and battery systems (PV + Battery) in CEMs using the Resource Planning Model (RPM), which co-optimizes capacity investments, transmission investments, and reduced-order dispatch in the Western Interconnection of North America through 2045. We use the model to simulate the evolution of the generation and transmission system under two core scenarios - a baseline scenario and a high renewable penetration scenario - coupled with sensitivities assuming low and midline PV and battery cost projections. When incorporating PV + battery, we find that it is important for CEMs to capture the ability of the coupled technology to provide firm capacity and reduce expected curtailment, compared to independent systems. These interactions can have even more dramatic impacts at higher solar penetrations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Optimal hybrid power plants for electric vehicle charging demand

Transmission constraints, increasing motivations to decarbonize, and concerns over peak electric vehicle (EV) load impacts on local grids have driven electric customers to consider behind-the-meter, hybrid power plant generation and storage at the distributed-grid level for EV charging. In this study, we develop capabilities to optimize hybrid power plant component capacities for EV charging. We then demonstrate these capabilities in a case study for Boulder, Colorado, using public EV charging data as well as wind and solar resource data. Our results show system designs that balance the cost of energy with load-meeting and peak shaving performance. Within the case study, systems designed for wind, solar photovoltaic (PV), and storage resulted in lower cost of energy than those optimized for PV and storage only. This indicates that in areas where wind resource exists, hybrid power plants that include wind, PV, and battery assets can better meet EV charging loads (including peak loads that are prone to overloading local grids) than PV and battery assets alone. Future work to address limitations in this paper include extending cost modeling to include performance losses (e.g., based on operations or weather) and charging station costs to estimate levelized cost of charging, and quantifying uncertainty and error in our aggregation methods for estimating EV charging loads at the hourly timescale.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Managing Solar Photovoltaic Integration in the Western United States: Power System Flexibility Requirements and Supply

As penetrations of variable renewable energy generation technologies such as wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) continue to increase across the United States, greater uncertainty and variability in the net load often lead to a concern about how power systems may adapt. Managing the system net load (i.e., load minus contribution from variable generation technologies) may become more challenging with increasing variable generation, as the magnitude and frequency of net ramps increase. However, there is inherent flexibility in power systems through the conventional generator fleet (under least-cost unit commitment and economic dispatch), less-conventional generation sources (e.g., storage, demand response, concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage), and imports and exports with neighbors. In this analysis, we create an open-source tool to analyze the flexibility of the results of a specific commercial unit commitment and economic dispatch tool (PLEXOS), but the code can be applied generically as well. The tool assesses the flexibility requirements (or demand) of a system through a net load analysis. The constraints and limitations of each generator are then considered to determine the availability (or supply) of flexibility. Then, the supply and demand of flexibility are compared to gain a more complete picture of potential flexibility concerns. We apply this open-source tool to high-penetration PV scenarios constructed for three focus regions in the western United States defined using the Resource Planning Model (RPM) capacity expansion modeling tool: RPM-OR, RPM-CO, and RPM-AZ. Generally, we find few flexibility concerns, as the western United States represents a large and interconnected power system with significant inherent flexibility. In addition, the PV scenarios we analyzed are overbuilt on capacity, leaving plenty of ramping ability on the system. We do find that for each focus region, the impact of imports on meeting ramping needs is essential. This means the PV integration in each focus region impacts the entire rest of the system. Each system has different dominant sources of flexibility. The conventional generator fleet (especially coal and gas combined-cycle technologies) as well as less-conventional sources such as storage are all shown to be important sources of flexibility. The scenarios evaluated here were designed to study the planning and operations impact of high solar penetration in each of three focus regions. However, none of the three focus regions likely will deploy PV in isolation, meaning the ability of imports and exports to provide flexibility may be considerably different in scenarios with strong PV deployment in every region. Overall, we intend that the framework we present here will be useful in future analysis of other system evolutions to identify whether and how flexibility may constrain the successful deployment of variable generation technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Radiation‐Resistant Aluminum Alloy for Space Missions in the Extreme Environment of the Solar System

Future human exploration of the solar system demands advanced materials capable of withstanding extreme environments, particularly exposure to solar energetic particle radiation. Current material selection criteria for space applications prioritize a high strength-to-weight ratio, high corrosion resistance and manufacturability, favoring age-hardenable Al-based alloys. However, conventional precipitation-hardened Al alloys suffer from irradiation-assisted dissolution of strengthening phases at doses as low as 0.2 displacements-per-atom (dpa), undermining their performance. Furthermore, these alloys develop radiation-induced defects, such as dislocation loops and voids, even at low doses. This study presents a novel ultrafine-grained (UFG) Al-based alloy, designed using the crossover alloying concept and strengthened by T-phase precipitates, featuring a chemically-complex structure with 162 atoms in its unit cell composed of Mg 32 (Zn,Al) 49 . It is showed that T-phase precipitates have exceptional radiation tolerance up to 24 dpa. Owing to the nanoscale UFG structure, dislocation loops are suppressed, and voids are only observed beyond 75 dpa. Microtensile tests up to 20 dpa confirm the preservation of mechanical performance under irradiation. The results underline the potential of this alloy as a radiation-resistant, lightweight material for future space applications. Three key strategies enable this performance: (i) stabilization of a UFG microstructure, (ii) T-phase precipitation featuring a highly negative Gibbs free energy and chemically-complex giant unit cell, and (iii) precise process control to prevent grain growth during heat treatment and irradiation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Low-dimensional carbon materials decorated FAPbI 3 for carbon-based perovskite solar cells

Carbon nanomaterials are at the forefront of research in perovskite solar cells (PSCs) due to their exceptional electrical, optical, and stability properties. Their diverse applications include serving as interfacial layers, additives, hole and electron transport materials, and back electrodes. While the influence of various low-dimensional carbon nanomaterial structures on crystallinity, optical and electrical performance, and overall device efficiency has been a topic of interest, it has not been thoroughly explored until now. In this study, we effectively integrated carbon quantum dots (CQDs), multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs), and graphene into the FAPbI 3 photoactive layer using a two-step sequential deposition method. Our experiments revealed marked improvements in the photovoltaic performance of PSCs that incorporated all three types of carbon nanomaterials. In particular, the data shows significant enhancements in power conversion efficiency, demonstrating the effectiveness of these materials in optimizing device functionality. Notably, MWCNTs distinguished themselves by exhibiting a remarkable potential for enhancing long-term stability. This finding underscores the importance of selecting the right carbon nanomaterials for future PSC developments, paving the way for more reliable and efficient solar energy solutions. As a result, our research highlights the critical role of carbon nanomaterials in advancing perovskite solar technology.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Multi-Timescale Integrated Dynamics and Scheduling for Solar (MIDAS-Solar) (Final Technical Report)

Solar photovoltaic (PV) installations have experienced unprecedented growth in the United States. PV will become not only an energy producer but also a necessary provider of ancillary services at multiple timescales. Conventional methods to simulate power systems operations - such as long-term production simulation (which typically considers schedules from hours to minutes by using an optimization framework) and short-term transient studies (which simulate dynamics from seconds to sub-seconds using state variables and differential equations) - are not sufficient for studying the multiple-timescale variation of solar generation and its impact on system reliability. Long-term system economics and short-term system dynamics are highly coupled, particularly when the penetration level of renewable generation is extremely high, because the uncertainty and variability of solar generation will impact both power system steady-state and dynamic performance. This project helps meet and exceed the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Solar Energy Technologies Office goal of systems integration by directly addressing this stability and reliability challenge for power grid planning and operation. We have developed a temporally comprehensive, closed-loop simulation model, named Multi-timescale Integrated Dynamics and Scheduling (MIDAS), that seamlessly simulates power system operations from economic scheduling (day-ahead to hours) to dynamic response analysis (seconds to sub-seconds). For schedules with very high levels of inverter-based resources (IBRs), up to and including 100%, the stability of grid controls has been evaluated through electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulations and power-hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) simulations of key transient events at key schedule points. Specifically, MIDAS provides: 1) a closed-loop simulation framework for simulating timescales from economic scheduling to dynamic stability analysis; 2) machine learning-based stability assessment; 3) EMT modeling and analysis for large-scale power systems; 4) MIDAS PHIL test bed. We worked with Hawaii Electric Companies to apply the MIDAS study framework to a Maui grid study. The entire island's transmission system was modeled in detail - from a yearly scheduling model, to a second-level frequency dynamic model, down to a sub-second-scale EMT model to address critical stability issues. The project demonstrated how MIDAS can help system planners and operators assess system reliability and stability while the power grid is marching toward a high-renewable, high-IBR future. In this Maui grid study, we found that 100% instantaneous IBR operation is achievable in EMT simulation and PHIL testing, and grid planners and operators might need new analysis/simulation tools to assess grid reliability and stability in the scheduling stage. MIDAS will bring Maui and other systems closer to 100% clean and stable energy futures. (In this study, we examined transient stability. Other topics necessary for 100% IBR operation, such as protection and resource adequacy, were not examined.)

100% Renewables↗