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DOE OSTI2025

Brief communication: Monitoring snow depth using small, cheap, and easy-to-deploy snow–ground interface temperature sensors

Abstract. Temporally continuous snow depth estimates are vital for understanding changing snow patterns and impacts on permafrost in the Arctic. We trained a random forest machine learning model to predict snow depth from variability in snow–ground interface temperature. The model performed well on Alaska's Seward Peninsula where it was trained and at Arctic evaluation sites (RMSE ≤ 0.15 m). It performed poorly at temperate sites with deeper snowpacks, partially due to training data limitations. Small temperature sensors are cheap and easy to deploy, so this technique enables spatially distributed and temporally continuous snowpack monitoring at high latitudes to an extent previously infeasible.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Snow distribution patterns revisited: A physics-based and machine learning hybrid approach to snow distribution mapping in the sub-Arctic Supporting Data

Snow in the Arctic and sub-Arctic is highly variable at fine scales, with deep drifts and shallow scoured areas creating a complex pattern of snow on the landscape. This fine-scale variation in snow is driven primarily by landscape and vegetation properties. Some landscape features, such as river beds, will rapidly fill in with snow during the wintertime due to high winds, while shrubs will trap blowing snow, resulting in drifts. Meanwhile, snow will blow off of exposed areas, resulting in abnormally shallow snow. These complex interactions between wind, vegetation, and terrain are difficult to represent well with physically-based models, but machine learning techniques have shown promise in the past. Here, we propose a hybrid modeling approach, where we use machine learning derived snow pattern maps to inform SnowModel, a physically-based snow process model. We develop and test this technique at the Teller 27 Seward Peninsula NGEE-Arctic study site. This dataset includes 5 *.nc files of model inputs and outputs plus one user guide (*.pdf). We present the data we use to drive SnowModel (vegetation type, digital elevation model), the snow pattern maps used to inform SnowModel (Standardized Depth Values maps, Machine Learning Snow Distribution Pattern), and our machine learning, SnowModel, and Hybrid snow depth and snow water equivalent results. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

Assimilation of MODIS Snow Cover Through the Data Assimilation Research Testbed and the Community Land Model Version 4

To improve snowpack estimates in Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow cover fraction (SCF) was assimilated into the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) via the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). The interface between CLM4 and DART is a flexible, extensible approach to land surface data assimilation. This data assimilation system has a large ensemble (80-member) atmospheric forcing that facilitates ensemble-based land data assimilation. We use 40 randomly chosen forcing members to drive 40 CLM members as a compromise between computational cost and the data assimilation performance. The localization distance, a parameter in DART, was tuned to optimize the data assimilation performance at the global scale. Snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow depth are adjusted via the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter, particularly in regions with large SCF variability. The root-mean-square error of the forecast SCF against MODIS SCF is largely reduced. In DJF (December-January-February), the discrepancy between MODIS and CLM4 is broadly ameliorated in the lower-middle latitudes (2345N). Only minimal modifications are made in the higher-middle (4566N) and high latitudes, part of which is due to the agreement between model and observation when snow cover is nearly 100. In some regions it also reveals that CLM4-modeled snow cover lacks heterogeneous features compared to MODIS. In MAM (March-April-May), adjustments to snowmove poleward mainly due to the northward movement of the snowline (i.e., where largest SCF uncertainty is and SCF assimilation has the greatest impact). The effectiveness of data assimilation also varies with vegetation types, with mixed performance over forest regions and consistently good performance over grass, which can partly be explained by the linearity of the relationship between SCF and SWE in the model ensembles. The updated snow depth was compared to the Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC) data. Differences between CMC and CLM4 are generally reduced in densely monitored regions.

data assimilation↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-resolution mountain topography can inform global snow vulnerability estimates

Snow is changing globally. Computationally intensive snow reanalysis products and downscaled climate model projections allow for the estimation of historical and projected changes in snow over ∼4–10 km resolutions, but these resolutions are coarse relative to the scales needed for water supply and flood planning. Fine-scale digital elevation models (DEMs) are widely available but are underutilized to make first-order assessments of snow vulnerability. Here, we leverage DEMs at a 7.5 arc s (∼250 m) resolution, combining these with historical freezing level height estimates from ERA-5 to derive estimates of changes in the snow-receiving area (SRA) and its variability across global mountain ranges. Results show estimated SRA declines in 29% (1.9 million km2) of the global mountain area from 1982–2020; 66% of the mountainous areas had no change over the historical period. At +1.5 °C of warming relative to the pre-industrial control, global mountain SRA would decline by 9.5% (1.0 million km2) relative to recent conditions. This loss would be approximately doubled with +2 °C of warming. In a +4 °C warming scenario, an additional 34% (3.6 million km2) of SRA would be lost beyond the +2 °C case. Across individual mountain ranges, SRA losses can occur nonlinearly with warming, with some locations that have historically had relatively minor SRA losses at risk of substantially larger losses in warmer climates. Analysis using coarser-resolution DEMs can underestimate or overestimate SRA and its rate of loss, with the largest impacts in relatively warm, low-elevation mountain ranges. Results of this work provide estimates of projected loss in SRA at policy-relevant warming levels; inform the resolutions needed for process-based snow modeling; identify snow vulnerability hotspots; and provide a new integrated approach to snow vulnerability assessment that is achievable at global scales and highlights potential nonlinearities from recent trends to a variety of future warming scenarios.

climate, mountains↗

NASA NTRS1987

Research relative to angular distribution of snow reflectance/snow cover characterization and microwave emission

Remote sensing has been applied in recent years to monitoring snow cover properties for applications in hydrologic and energy balance modeling. In addition, snow cover has been recently shown to exert a considerable local influence on weather variables. Of particular importance is the potential of sensors to provide data on the physical properties of snow with high spatial and temporal resolution. Visible and near-infrared measurements of upwelling radiance can be used to infer near-surface properties through the calculation of albedo. Microwave signals usually come from deeper within the snow pack and thus provide depth-integrated information, which can be measured through clouds and does not relay on solar illumination.Fundamental studies examining the influence of snow properties on signals from various parts of the electromagnetic spectrum continue in part because of the promise of new remote sensors with higher spectral and spatial accuracy. Information in the visible and near-infrared parts of the spectrum comprise nearly all available data with high spatial resolution. Current passive microwave sensors have poor spatial resolution and the data are problematic where the scenes consist of mixed landscape features, but they offer timely observations that are independent of cloud cover and solar illumination.

Dozier, Jeff↗

NASA NTRS1990

Cloud and surface textural features in polar regions

The study examines the textural signatures of clouds, ice-covered mountains, solid and broken sea ice and floes, and open water. The textural features are computed from sum and difference histogram and gray-level difference vector statistics defined at various pixel displacement distances derived from Landsat multispectral scanner data. Polar cloudiness, snow-covered mountainous regions, solid sea ice, glaciers, and open water have distinguishable texture features. This suggests that textural measures can be successfully applied to the detection of clouds over snow-covered mountains, an ability of considerable importance for the modeling of snow-melt runoff. However, broken stratocumulus cloud decks and thin cirrus over broken sea ice remain difficult to distinguish texturally. It is concluded that even with high spatial resolution imagery, it may not be possible to distinguish broken stratocumulus and thin clouds from sea ice in the marginal ice zone using the visible channel textural features alone.

Welch, Ronald M.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Exploring the Utility of Machine Learning-Based Passive Microwave Brightness Temperature Data Assimilation over Terrestrial Snow in High Mountain Asia

This study explores the use of a support vector machine (SVM) as the observation operator within a passive microwave brightness temperature data assimilation framework (herein SVM-DA) to enhance the characterization of snow water equivalent (SWE) over High Mountain Asia (HMA). A series of synthetic twin experiments were conducted with the NASA Land Information System (LIS) at a number of locations across HMA. Overall, the SVM-DA framework is effective at improving SWE estimates (~70% reduction in RMSE relative to the Open Loop) for SWE depths less than 200 mm during dry snowpack conditions. The SVM-DA framework also improves SWE estimates in deep, wet snow (~45% reduction in RMSE) when snow liquid water is well estimated by the land surface model, but can lead to model degradation when snow liquid water estimates diverge from values used during SVM training. In particular, two key challenges of using the SVM-DA framework were observed over deep, wet snowpacks. First, variations in snow liquid water content dominate the brightness temperature spectral difference (TB) signal associated with emission from a wet snowpack, which can lead to abrupt changes in SWE during the analysis update. Second, the ensemble of SVM-based predictions can collapse (i.e., yield a near-zero standard deviation across the ensemble) when prior estimates of snow are outside the range of snow inputs used during the SVM training procedure. Such a scenario can lead to the presence of spurious error correlations between SWE and TB, and as a consequence, can result in degraded SWE estimates from the analysis update. These degraded analysis updates can be largely mitigated by applying rule-based approaches. For example, restricting the SWE update when the standard deviation of the predicted TB is greater than 0.05 K helps prevent the occurrence of filter divergence. Similarly, adding a thin layer (i.e., 5 mm) of SWE when the synthetic TB is larger than 5 K can improve SVM-DA performance in the presence of a precipitation dry bias. The study demonstrates that a carefully constructed SVM-DA framework cognizant of the inherent limitations of passive microwave-based SWE estimation holds promise for snow mass data assimilation.

Kwon, Yonghwan↗

NASA NTRS2005

On Modeling Air/Space-Borne Radar Returns in the Melting Layer

The bright band is the enhanced radar echo associated with the melting of hydrometeors in stratiform rain where the melting process usually occurs below 0 C isotherm over a distance of about 500m. To simulate this radar signature, a scattering model of melting snow is proposed in which the fractional water content is prescribed as a function of the radius of a spherical mixed- phase particle consisting of air, ice and water. The model is based on the observation that melting starts at the surface of the particle and then gradually develops towards the center. To compute the scattering parameters of a non-uniform melting particle, the particle is modeled as a sphere represented by a collection of 64(exp 3) cubic cells of identical size where the probability of water at any cell is prescribed as a function of the radius. The internal field of the particle, used for deriving the effective dielectric constant, is computed by the Conjugate Gradient and Fast Fourier Transform (CGFFT) numerical methods. To make computations of the scattering parameters more efficient, a multi-layer stratified-sphere scattering model is introduced after demonstrating that the scattering parameters of the non-uniformly melting particle can be accurately reproduced by the stratified sphere. In conjunction with a melting layer model that describes the melting fractions and fall velocities of hydrometeors as a function of the distance from the 0 C isotherm, the stratified-sphere model is used to simulate the radar bright band profiles. These simulated profiles are shown to compare well with measurements from the Precipitation Radar (PR) aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and a dual-wavelength airborne radar. The results suggest that the proposed model of a melting snow particle may be useful in studying the characteristics of the bright-band in particular and mixed- phase hydrometeors in general.

Liao, Liang↗

NASA NTRS2021

Maximum entropy modeling to identify physical drivers of shallow snowpack heterogeneity using unpiloted aerial system (UAS) lidar

Understanding the spatial variability of the snowpack is valuable for hydrologists and ecologists seeking to predict hydrological processes in a cold region. Snow distribution is a function of interactions among static variables, such as terrain, vegetation, and soil properties, and dynamic meteorological variables, such as solar radiation, wind speed and direction, and soil moisture. However, identifying the dominant physical drivers responsible for spatial patterns of the snowpack, particularly for ephemeral, shallow snowpacks, has been challenging due to the lack of the high-resolution snowpack and physical variables with high vertical accuracy as well as inherent limitations in traditional approaches. This study uses an Unpiloted Aerial System (UAS) lidar-based snow depth and static variables (1-m spatial resolution) to analyze field-scale spatial structures of snow depth and apply the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to identify primary controls over open terrain and forests at the University of New Hampshire Thompson Farm Research Observatory, New Hampshire, United States. We found that, among nine topographic and soil variables, plant functional type and terrain roughness contribute up to 80% and 76% of relative importance in the MaxEnt framework to predict locations of deeper or shallower snowpacks, respectively, across a mixed temperate forested and field landscape. Soil variables, such as organic matter and saturated hydraulic conductivity, were also important controls (up to 70% and 81%) on snow depth spatial variations for both open and forested landscapes suggesting spatial variations in soil variables under snow can control thermal transfer among soil, snowpack, and surface-atmosphere. This work contributes to improving land surface and snow models by informing parameterization of the sub-grid scale snow depths, down-scaling remotely sensed snow products, and understanding field scale snow states.

Eunsang Cho↗

NASA NTRS2012

Incorporation of the Mass Concentration and the New Snow Albedo Schemes into the Global Forecasting Model, GEOS-5 and the Impact of the New Schemes over Himalayan Glaciers

Recently the issue on glacier retreats comes up and many factors should be relevant to the issue. The absorbing aerosols such as dust and black carbon (BC) are considered to be one of the factors. After they deposited onto the snow surface, it will reduce snow albedo (called snow darkening effect) and probably contribute to further melting of glacier. The Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) has developed at NASA/GSFC. However, the original snowpack model used in the land surface model in the GEOS-5 did not consider the snow darkening effect. Here we developed the new snow albedo scheme which can consider the snow darkening effect. In addition, another scheme on calculating mass concentrations on the absorbing aerosols in snowpack was also developed, in which the direct aerosol depositions from the chemical transport model in the GEOS-5 were used. The scheme has been validated with the observed data obtained at backyard of the Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, by Dr. Teruo Aoki (Meteorological Research Institute) et aL including me. The observed data was obtained when I was Ph.D. candidate. The original GEOS-5during 2007-2009 over the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau region showed more reductions of snow than that of the new GEOS-5 because the original one used lower albedo settings. On snow cover fraction, the new GEOS-5 simulated more realistic snow-covered area comparing to the MODIS snow cover fraction. The reductions on snow albedo, snow cover fraction, and snow water equivalent were seen with statistically significance if we consider the snow darkening effect comparing to the results without the snow darkening effect. In the real world, debris cover, inside refreezing process, surface flow of glacier, etc. affect glacier mass balance and the simulated results immediately do not affect whole glacier retreating. However, our results indicate that some surface melting over non debris covered parts of the glacier would be explained by the snow darkening effect. Further discussion and observations are necessary to assess the glacier issue.

Yasunari, Teppei↗

DOE OSTI2020

Injury severity analysis of truck-involved crashes under different weather conditions

This paper investigates truck-involved crashes to determine the statistically significant factors that contribute to injury severity under different weather conditions. The analysis uses crash data from the state of Ohio between 2011 and 2015 available from the Highway Safety Information System. To determine if weather conditions should be considered separately for truck safety analyses, parameter transferability tests are conducted; the results suggest that weather conditions should be modeled separately with a high level of statistical confidence. To this end, three separate mixed logit models are estimated for three different weather conditions: normal, rain and snow. The estimated models identify a variety of statistically significant factors influencing the injury severity. Different weather conditions are found to have different contributing effects on injury severity in truck-involved crashes. Rural, rear-end and sideswipe crash parameters were found to have significantly different levels of impact on injury severity. Based on the findings of this study, several countermeasures are suggested: 1) safety and enforcement programs should focus on female truck drivers, 2) a variable speed limit sign should be used to lower speeds of trucks during rainy condition, and 3) trucks should be restricted or prohibited on non-interstates during rainy and snowy conditions. These countermeasures could reduce the number and severity of truck-involved crashes under different weather conditions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3: 2. Overview of the Coupled System

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 3 (E3SMv3) represents the latest advancement in Earth system modeling developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Building upon previous versions, E3SMv3 introduces significant updates across its coupled components to enhance capability and improve fidelity. The atmosphere component incorporates advancements in chemistry, aerosol-cloud interactions, convection, and microphysics. The ocean features a new time-stepping scheme and a higher-resolution unstructured mesh with sub-ice-shelf cavities, while the sea ice model integrates advanced snow and ice physics for more realistic cryospheric simulations. The land model introduces prognostic vegetation dynamics and a new sub-grid topographic treatment of solar radiation. A new tri-grid configuration harmonizes the horizontal grids of the land and river components for improved process coupling. It is enabled by a new non-linear remapping between the atmosphere and land. E3SMv3 underwent extensive testing through a comprehensive simulation campaign, including pre-industrial control, idealized CO 2 experiments, and historical simulations spanning 1850–2024. The model demonstrates significant improvements in simulating the evolution of the historical surface temperature, particularly addressing the “pothole cooling” bias in earlier versions. Reduced aerosol-related forcing contributes to more realistic radiative forcing and better alignment with the observational record. Ocean heat content (OHC) and sea ice trends are also improved as a result.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1983

Microwave emission from an irregular snow layer

Emission from an irregular snow layer is modeled by a layer of Mie scatterers using the radiative transfer method. Comparisons are made with measurements showing snow wetness effects and rough air-snow boundary effects. For convenience of reference, theoretical model behavior is also illustrated.

Eom, H. J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning snow depth predictions at sites in Alaska, Norway, Siberia, Colorado and New Mexico

Temporally continuous snow depth estimates are vital for understanding changing snow patterns in the Arctic and impacts on permafrost. We trained random forest machine learning models to predict snow depth from temperature data recorded at or just below the ground surface. Training data was collected at the Teller 27 Watershed and Kougarok 64 Hillslope during the 2021 - 2022 water year on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska using distributed temperature profiling (DTP) systems. We then applied this model to other sites where ground surface or shallow soil temperature data was available for at least one water year (see Related Datasets). Many of these temperature measurements were collocated with snow depth observations. Ground surface temperature (i.e. snow-ground interface temperature) is easy to measure using small, cheap and easy-to-deploy temperature sensors such as iButtons and TinyTags, and such measurements have previously been used to calculate a variety of snow metrics (e.g. snow onset date). However, this is the first study to estimate snow depth directly from ground surface temperature data. The present dataset contains one *.csv file which includes machine learning snow depth predictions at sites in Alaska, Norway, Siberia, Colorado, and New Mexico and one *.kml file including the locations of sites with snow depth predictions. No training data predictions are included in the *.csv file. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy’s Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1993

Observational and modeling studies of the influence of snow anomalies on the atmospheric circulation

Current research on the effects of snow covers on the atmosphere over short term, interannual, and decadal timescales is reviewed. Data obtained show that anomalies of snow cover are clearly associated with significant local anomalies of air temperature, at least in the lowest 100-200 mb. The duration of the local anomalies generally ranges from several days to several weeks and is often limited by the weekly and monthly fluctuation of the snow anomalies. The snow-hydrology-soil moisture feedback is capable of producing a meaningful response in the atmosphere during spring and summer.

Walsh, John E.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Measurement of the spectral absorption of liquid water in melting snow with an imaging spectrometer

Melting of the snowpack is a critical parameter that drives aspects of the hydrology in regions of the earth where snow accumulates seasonally. New techniques for measurement of snow melt over regional scales offer the potential to improve monitoring and modeling of snow-driven hydrological processes. We present the results of measuring the spectral absorption of liquid water in a melting snowpack with the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS). AVIRIS data were acquired over Mammoth Mountain, in east central California on 21 May 1994 at 18:35 UTC. The air temperature at 2926 m on Mammoth Mountain at site A was measured at 15-minute intervals during the day preceding the AVIRIS data acquisition. At this elevation, the air temperature did not drop below freezing the night of May 20 and had risen to 6 degrees Celsius by the time of the overflight on May 21. These temperature conditions support the presence of melting snow at the surface as the AVIRIS data were acquired.

Green, Robert O.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Measurement of the Spectral Absorption of Liquid Water in Melting Snow With an Imaging Spectrometer

Melting of the snowpack is a critical parameter that drives aspects of the hydrology in regions of the Earth where snow accumulates seasonally. New techniques for measurement of snow melt over regional scales offer the potential to improve monitoring and modeling of snow-driven hydrological processes. In this paper we present the results of measuring the spectral absorption of liquid water in a melting snowpack with the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS). AVIRIS data were acquired over Mammoth Mountain, in east central California on 21 May 1994 at 18:35 UTC. The air temperature at 2926 m on Mammoth Mountain at site A was measured at 15-minute intervals during the day preceding the AVIRIS data acquisition. At this elevation. the air temperature did not drop below freezing the night of the May 20 and had risen to 6 degrees Celsius by the time of the overflight on May 21. These temperature conditions support the presence of melting snow at the surface as the AVIRIS data were acquired.

Green, Robert O.↗

NASA NTRS2022

The Impact of Firn Models on Ultrawideband Brightness Temperatures in the Partially Coherent Model

The density profile of a polar ice sheet is an important parameter for the estimation of ice mass balance. Wave reflections caused by density variations are also a key uncertainty in the retrieval of ice sheet temperature profiles in Ultra-Wide band radiometry. In this paper, we examine different firn density profile models and analyze the subsurface reflections they cause using an analytical partially coherent approach. We also examine firn density profiles obtained from borehole measurements, from past UWBRAD modeling studies, from a community firn model, and from snow radar echo measurements. In previous studies, the ice sheet has been model as a 1D random medium with density variations in depth. However, horizontal density variations also exist, so that the ice sheet is a 3D random medium. Analyses using the partially coherent model show that in the presence of horizontal fluctuations, contributions from short scale variations vanish as the horizontal correlation length decreases due to the diffraction of waves.

Haokui Xu↗