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NASA NTRS2010

Modeling Harris Current Sheets with Themis Observations

Current sheets are ubiquitous in nature. occurring in such varied locations as the solar atmosphere. the heliosphere, and the Earth's magnetosphere. The simplest current sheet is the one-dimensional Harris neutral sheet, with the lobe field strength and scale-height the only free parameters. Despite its simplicity, confirmation of the Harris sheet as a reasonable description of the Earth's current sheet has remained elusive. In early 2009 the orbits of the 5 THEMIS probes fortuitously aligned such that profiles of the Earth's current sheet could be modeled in a time dependent manner. For the few hours of alignment we have calculated the time history of the current sheet parameters (scale height and current) in the near-Earth region. during both quiet and active times. For one particular substorm. we further demonstrate good quantitative agreement with the diversion of cross tail current inferred from the Harris modeling with the ionospheric current inferred from ground magnetometer data.

Kepko, L.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Assessing the Impact of Laurentide Ice-sheet Topography on Glacial Climate

Simulations of past climates require altered boundary conditions to account for known shifts in the Earth system. For the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation, the existence of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets caused profound changes in surface topography and albedo. While ice-sheet extent is fairly well known, numerous conflicting reconstructions of ice-sheet topography suggest that precision in this boundary condition is lacking. Here we use a high-resolution and oxygen-isotopeenabled fully coupled global circulation model (GCM) (GISS ModelE2-R), along with two different reconstructions of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) that provide maximum and minimum estimates of LIS elevation, to assess the range of climate variability in response to uncertainty in this boundary condition.We present this comparison at two equilibrium time slices: the LGM, when differences in ice-sheet topography are maximized, and 14 ka, when differences in maximum ice-sheet height are smaller but still exist. Overall, we find significant differences in the climate response to LIS topography, with the larger LIS resulting in enhanced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and warmer surface air temperatures, particularly over northeastern Asia and the North Pacific. These up- and downstream effects are associated with differences in the development of planetary waves in the upper atmosphere, with the larger LIS resulting in a weaker trough over northeastern Asia that leads to the warmer temperatures and decreased albedo from snow and sea-ice cover. Differences between the 14 ka simulations are similar in spatial extent but smaller in magnitude, suggesting that climate is responding primarily to the larger difference in maximum LIS elevation in the LGM simulations. These results suggest that such uncertainty in ice-sheet boundary conditions alone may significantly impact the results of paleoclimate simulations and their ability to successfully simulate past climates, with implications for estimating climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing utilizing past climate states.

glaciology↗

NASA NTRS2014

Future Antarctic Bed Topography and Its Implications for Ice Sheet Dynamics

The Antarctic bedrock is evolving as the solid Earth responds to the past and ongoing evolution of the ice sheet. A recently improved ice loading history suggests that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has generally been losing its mass since the Last Glacial Maximum. In a sustained warming climate, the AIS is predicted to retreat at a greater pace, primarily via melting beneath the ice shelves.We employ the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) capability of the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) to combine these past and future ice loadings and provide the new solid Earth computations for the AIS.We find that past loading is relatively less important than future loading for the evolution of the future bed topography. Our computations predict that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may uplift by a few meters and a few tens of meters at years AD 2100 and 2500, respectively, and that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is likely to remain unchanged or subside minimally except around the Amery Ice Shelf. The Amundsen Sea Sector in particular is predicted to rise at the greatest rate; one hundred years of ice evolution in this region, for example, predicts that the coastline of Pine Island Bay will approach roughly 45mmyr−1 in viscoelastic vertical motion. Of particular importance, we systematically demonstrate that the effect of a pervasive and large GIA uplift in the WAIS is generally associated with the flattening of reverse bed slope, reduction of local sea depth, and thus the extension of grounding line (GL) towards the continental shelf. Using the 3-D higher-order ice flow capability of ISSM, such a migration of GL is shown to inhibit the ice flow. This negative feedback between the ice sheet and the solid Earth may promote stability in marine portions of the ice sheet in the future.

ice dynamics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Impact of Ice Sheet Surface Representation on Surface Mass Balance in the Goddard Earth Observing System

Surface conditions and their impacts on surface mass balance (SMB) play important roles in ice sheet dynamics and ice sheet interactions with the overlying atmosphere and surrounding ocean. The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s (GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) – an ecosystem of models and reanalyses – represent ice sheet and glacier SMB components, including prognostic surface albedo evolution, fractional snow cover, and snowpack hydrology and meltwater retention. We find the successful representation of ice sheet surface mass balance in MERRA-2, and similar systems, is partly due to compensating biases in surface energy budget. In the atmospheric system, subsequent changes to cloud microphysics and in the longwave radiative transfer model are found to have reduced biases in surface net longwave radiation fluxes while exacerbating surface net shortwave radiation biases, producing erroneously high near-surface temperatures and surface melt in summer months. These issues can be exacerbated by poor experiment initialization and the use of two-moment cloud microphysics within the GEOS ocean-atmosphere coupled system. Here, we document the spatial and temporal extent and causes of these biases in the ice sheet surface energy budget across GEOS systems and implement a range of model improvements to mitigate these issues. We examine the combined impact on these changes on regional energy budget and SMB using both free running and replay experiments (to simulate the impact in reanalyses). Overall, these improvements increase modeled ice sheet surface realism and provide a strong basis for more accurate ice sheet SMB in GMAO’s future reanalyses and forecasting systems.

Lauren C Andrews↗

NASA NTRS2012

Dynamic Inland Propagation of Thinning Due to Ice Loss at the Margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Mass-balance analysis of the Greenland ice sheet based on surface elevation changes observed by the European Remote-sensing Satellite (ERS) (1992-2002) and Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) (2003-07) indicates that the strongly increased mass loss at lower elevations (<2000 m) of the ice sheet, as observed during 2003-07, appears to induce interior ice thinning at higher elevations. In this paper, we perform a perturbation experiment with a three-dimensional anisotropic ice-flow model (AIF model) to investigate this upstream propagation. Observed thinning rates in the regions below 2000m elevation are used as perturbation inputs. The model runs with perturbation for 10 years show that the extensive mass loss at the ice-sheet margins does in fact cause interior thinning on short timescales (i.e. decadal). The modeled pattern of thinning over the ice sheet agrees with the observations, which implies that the strong mass loss since the early 2000s at low elevations has had a dynamic impact on the entire ice sheet. The modeling results also suggest that even if the large mass loss at the margins stopped, the interior ice sheet would continue thinning for 300 years and would take thousands of years for full dynamic recovery.

ice dynamics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Förster Resonance Energy Transfer and Enhanced Emission in Cs 4 PbBr 6 Nanocrystals Encapsulated in Silicon Nano-Sheets for Perovskite Light Emitting Diode Applications

Encapsulating Cs 4 PbBr 6 quantum dots in silicon nano-sheets not only stabilizes the halide perovskite, but also takes advantage of the nano-sheet for a compatible integration with the traditional silicon semiconductor. Here, we report the preparation of un-passivated Cs 4 PbBr 6 ellipsoidal nanocrystals and pseudo-spherical quantum dots in silicon nano-sheets and their enhanced photoluminescence (PL). For a sample with low concentrations of quantum dots in silicon nano-sheets, the emission from Cs 4 PbBr 6 pseudo-spherical quantum dots is quenched and is dominated with Pb 2+ ion/silicene emission, which is very stable during the whole measurement period. For a high concentration of Cs 4 PbBr 6 ellipsoidal nanocrystals in silicon nano-sheets, we have observed Förster resonance energy transfer with up to 87% efficiency through the oscillation of two PL peaks when UV excitation switches between on and off, using recorded video and PL lifetime measurements. In an area of a non-uniform sample containing both ellipsoidal nanocrystals and pseudo-spherical quantum dots, where Pb 2+ ion/silicene emissions, broadband emissions from quantum dots, and bandgap edge emissions (515 nm) appear, the 515 nm peak intensity increases five times over 30 min of UV excitation, probably due to a photon recycling effect. This irradiated sample has been stable for one year of ambient storage. Cs 4 PbBr 6 quantum dots encapsulated in silicon nano-sheets can lead to applications of halide perovskite light emitting diodes (PeLEDs) and integration with traditional semiconductor materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2019

initMIP-Antarctica: an Ice Sheet Model Initialization Experiment of ISMIP6

Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMIP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMIP-Greenland, initMIP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMIP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue.

ice sheet model↗

NASA NTRS2024

PRODEM: An Annual Series of Summer DEMs (2019 through 2022) of the Marginal Areas of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Surface topography across the marginal zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet is constantly evolving in response to changing weather, season, climate, and ice dynamics. However, current digital elevation models (DEMs) for the ice sheet are usually based on data from a multi-year period, thus obscuring these changes over time. Here we present four 500 m resolution summer DEMs (PRODEMs) of the Greenland Ice Sheet marginal zone for 2019 through 2022. The PRODEMs cover the marginal zone from the ice edge to 50 km inland, hence capturing all Greenland outlet glaciers. Each PRODEM is based on data fusion of CryoSat-2 radar altimetry and ICESat-2 laser altimetry using regionally varying kriging of elevation anomalies relative to ArcticDEM. The PRODEMs are validated using leave-one-out cross-validation, and PRODEM19 is further validated against an external data set, showcasing their ability to correctly represent surface elevations within the associated spatially varying prediction uncertainties. We observe a general lowering of surface elevations during the 4-year PRODEM period, but the spatial pattern of change is highly complex and with annual changes superimposed. The PRODEMs enable detailed studies of the marginal ice sheet elevation changes. With their high spatio-temporal resolution, the PRODEMs will be of value to a wide range of researchers and users studying ice sheet dynamics and monitoring how the ice sheet responds to changing environmental conditions. PRODEMs from summer 2019 through 2022 are available at https://doi.org/10.22008/FK2/52WWHG (Winstrup, 2024), and we plan to annually update the product henceforth.

Digital Elevation Models↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Cast Net Thrown onto an Interface: Wrapping 3D Objects with an Interfacially Jammed Amphiphilic Sheet

Wrapping a 3D object with a 2D sheet is not uncommon, but the wrapping behavior becomes complex and interesting when the sheet is bestowed with strong interfacial activities. Amphiphilic lignin macromolecules, isolated from biomass, form a scalable thin surfactant sheet at an oil/water interface through the interfacial jamming process. The process marks three distinct stages of interfacial behavior: a) diffusive assembly, b) viscous assembly with retarded mobility, and c) flexible yet irreversibly jammed rigid sheets. The surfactant sheet wraps, traps, and promptly stabilizes both oil and water droplets in nonequilibrium morphologies upon environmental stimulus. Finally, beyond preserving exotic morphologies, the highly interfacially active surfactant sheet also participates in morphology evolution by creating a vanishing interfacial tension and driving interfacial instability around the wrapped content, leading to novel morphologies as well as many potential applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hierarchical domain structures in buckled ferroelectric free sheets

Flat elastic sheets tend to display wrinkles and folds. From pieces of clothing down to two-dimensional crystals, these corrugations appear in response to strain generated by sheet compression or stretching, thermal or mechanical mismatch with other elastic layers, or surface tension. Extensively studied in metals, polymers and, — more recently — in van der Waals exfoliated layers, with the advent of thin single crystal freestanding films of complex oxides, researchers are now paying attention to novel microstructural effects induced by bending ferroelectric-ferroelastics, where polarization is strongly coupled to lattice deformation. Here we show that wrinkle undulations in BaTiO3 sheets bonded to a viscoelastic substrate transform into a buckle delamination geometry when transferred onto a rigid substrate. Using spatially resolved techniques at different scales (Raman, scanning probe and electron microscopy), we show how these delaminations in the free BaTiO3 sheets display a self-organization of ferroelastic domains along the buckle profile that strongly differs from the more studied sinusoidal wrinkle geometry. Moreover, we disclose the hierarchical distribution of a secondary set of domains induced by the misalignment of these folding structures from the preferred in-plane crystallographic orientations. Our results disclose the relevance of the morphology and orientation of buckling instabilities in ferroelectric free sheets, for the stabilization of different domain structures, pointing to new routes for domain engineering of ferroelectrics in flexible oxide sheets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

A new magnesium sheet alloy with high tensile properties and room-temperature formability

Lightweight sheet alloys with superior mechanical performance such as high strength, ductility and formability at room temperature (RT) are desirable for high volume automotive applications. However, ductility or formability of metallic alloys at RT are generally inversely related to strength, thereby making it difficult to optimize all three simultaneously. Here we design a new magnesium sheet alloy-ZAXME11100 (Mg-1.0Zn-1.0Al-0.5Ca-0.4Mn-0.2Ce, wt. pct.) via CALPHAD (CALculation of PHAse Diagram) modeling and experimental validation. This new sheet alloy offers an excellent RT formability with a high Index Erichsen (I.E.) value of 7.8 mm in a solution-treated condition (T4), due to its weak and split basal texture and fine grain structure. The new ZAXME 11100 alloy also shows a rapid age-hardening response during post-forming artificial aging treatment at 210 °C for 1hour (T6), resulting in a significant increase of yield strength from 159 MPa (T4) to 270 MPa (T6). The excellent combination of T4 ductility (31%), T4 formability (7.8 mm) and T6 yield strength (270 MPa) in this new magnesium alloy is comparable to that of common 6xxx series aluminum sheet alloys. Thus, this new magnesium sheet alloy is highly attractive for sheet applications in automotive and other industries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Solutal-buoyancy-driven intertwining and rotation of patterned elastic sheets

Abstract The intertwining of strands into 3D spirals is ubiquitous in biology, enabling functions from information storage to maintenance of cell structure and directed locomotion. In synthetic systems, entwined fibers can provide superior mechanical properties and act as artificial muscle or structural reinforcements. Unlike structures in nature, the entwinement of synthetic materials typically requires application of an external stimulus, such as mechanical actuation, light, or a magnetic field. Herein, we use computational modeling to design microscale sheets that mimic biology by transducing chemical energy into mechanical action, and thereby self-organize and interlink into 3D spirals, which spontaneously rotate. These flexible sheets are immersed in a fluid-filled microchamber that encompasses an immobilized patch of catalysts on the bottom wall. The sheets themselves can be passive or active (coated with catalyst). Catalytic reactions in the solution generate products that occupy different volumes than the reactants. The resulting density variations exert a force on the fluid (solutal buoyancy force) that causes motion, which in turn drives the interlinking and collective swirling of the sheets. The individual sheets do not rotate; rotation only occurs when the sheets are interlinked. This level of autonomous, coordinated 3D structural organization, intertwining, and rotation is unexpected in synthetic materials systems operating without external controls. Using physical arguments, we identify dimensionless ratios that are useful in scaling these ideas to other systems. These findings are valuable for creating materials that act as “machines”, and directing soft matter to undergo self-sustained, multistep assembly that is governed by intrinsic chemical reactions.

Manna, Raj Kumar (ORCID:0000000322729487)↗

DOE OSTI2022

A buckling-sheet ring oscillator for electronics-free, multimodal locomotion

Locomotion of soft robots typically relies on control of multiple inflatable actuators by electronic computers and hard valves. Soft pneumatic oscillators can reduce the demand on controllers by generating complex movements required for locomotion from a single, constant input pressure, but either have been constrained to low rates of flow of air or have required complex fabrication processes. Here, we describe a pneumatic oscillator fabricated from flexible, but inextensible, sheets that provides high rates of airflow for practical locomotion by combining three instabilities: out-of-plane buckling of the sheets, kinking of tubing attached to the sheets, and a system-level instability resulting from connection of an odd number of pneumatic inverters made from these sheets in a loop. This device, which we call a “buckling-sheet ring oscillator” (BRO), directly generates movement from its own interaction with its surroundings and consists only of readily available materials assembled in a simple process—specifically, stacking acetate sheets, nylon film, and double-sided tape, and attaching an elastomeric tube. A device incorporating a BRO is capable of both translational and rotational motion over varied terrain (even without a tether) and can climb upward against gravity and downward against the buoyant force encountered under water.

Robotics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Rapid retreat of the southwestern Laurentide Ice Sheet during the Bølling-Allerød interval

The timing of Laurentide Ice Sheet deglaciation along its southwestern margin controlled the evolution of large glacial lakes and has implications for human migration into the Americas. Accurate reconstruction of the ice sheet’s retreat also constrains glacial isostatic adjustment models and is important for understanding ice-sheet sensitivity to climate forcing. Despite its significance, retreat of the southwestern Laurentide Ice Sheet (SWLIS) is poorly constrained by minimum-limiting 14 C data. We present 26 new cosmogenic 10 Be exposure ages spanning the western Interior Plains, Canada. Using a Bayesian framework, we combine these data with geomorphic mapping, 10 Be, and high-quality minimum-limiting 14 C ages to provide an updated chronology. This dataset presents an internally consistent retreat record and indicates that the initial detachment of the SWLIS from its convergence with the Cordilleran Ice Sheet began by ca. 15.0 ka, concurrent with or slightly prior to the onset of the Bølling-Allerød interval (14.7–12.9 ka) and retreated >1200 km to its Younger Dryas (YD) position in ~2500 yr. Ice-sheet stabilization at the Cree Lake Moraine facilitated a meltwater drainage route to the Arctic from glacial Lake Agassiz within the YD, but not necessarily at the beginning. Our record of deglaciation and new YD constraints demonstrate deglaciation of the Interior Plains was ~60% faster than suggested by minimum 14 C constraints alone. In conclusion, numerical modeling of this rapid retreat estimates a loss of ~3.7 m of sea-level equivalent from the SWLIS during the Bølling-Allerød interval.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimization of Lithium Content and Sintering Additives in Tape Cast Lithium Garnet Electrolyte Sheets

The lithium garnet (LLZO) remains one of the most promising electrolyte materials for producing solid state batteries. Tape casting is one method for producing the thin ceramic electrolyte layer required for a high-performance solid state battery. Processing of LLZO is complicated by several factors including lithium volatilization, abnormal grain growth and phase instability. Many of these issues are exacerbated in tape cast sheets by the sheets' higher surface area to volume ratio, when compared to pellet processing methods. Here, we report on an environmentally friendly aqueous tape casting process for LLZO using methylcellulose as a binder and compare final sheet properties to other, solvent-based, options. Solids loading, binder content, dispersant composition, and wetting agent type are varied to improve ease of casting and enhance properties of the as-cast tape. Lithium content in sintered LLZO sheets is controlled by the inclusion of excess Li 2 CO 3 as lithium source in the ceramic tape itself and by a novel method of producing a lithium-saturated furnace atmosphere. Sintering time and temperature are optimized, and rapid thermal processing is investigated as a method of reducing lithium loss. Al 2 O 3 and MgO are examined for use as sintering additives. Characterization of LLZO sheets is performed with XRD, EIS and SEM. Li 2 CO 3 and sintering additive levels are optimized for ionic conductivity and density. The optimization effort improved the conductivity and density of 100µm thick sintered sheets to greater than 3x10 -4 S/cm conductivity and 90% density.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Beta-dependent Properties of Solar Wind Current Sheets at 1 au

We utilize plasma turbulence in interplanetary coronal mass ejections as a natural laboratory to analyze more than 4600 current sheets observed over a broad range of electron and proton beta values, 10 −2 ≲ β e ≲ 10 and 10 −3 ≲ β p ≲ 10. The analysis shows that the shear angle Δθ and the thickness λ CS of the current sheets depend on both electron and proton beta. Specifically, the dependencies on electron beta are Δθ ≈ 12.6° $β^{0.41}_{e}$ and, λ CS /λ p ≈ 1.9 $β^{0.26}_{e}$ where λ p is the local proton inertial length. We argue that the beta dependence of the shear angle is an intrinsic feature of solar wind turbulence arising from the natural correlation between turbulence intensity and plasma beta. In contrast, the beta dependence of current sheet scales is likely a general characteristic of plasma turbulence. According to recent theory, current sheets formed in turbulence are disrupted by the electron tearing instability once their thickness is smaller than a critical scale. We demonstrate that normalizing the thickness of current sheets by this critical scale eliminates the dependence on beta across the entire range of plasma beta. This observation not only supports the theory suggesting that current sheets mediate the transition from the inertial to the kinetic cascade through the electron tearing instability, but also demonstrates the plausibility of similar processes in astrophysical plasma. The presented results also indicate that the theory may be applicable beyond its formal limits, m e /m i ≪ β ≪ 1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Experimental design for the Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project – phase 2 (MISOMIP2)

The Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project – phase 2 (MISOMIP2) is a natural progression of previous and ongoing model intercomparison exercises that have focused on the simulation of ice-sheet and ocean processes in Antarctica. The previous exercises motivate the move towards realistic configurations, as well as more diverse model parameters and resolutions. The main objective of MISOMIP2 is to investigate the performance of existing ocean and coupled ice-sheet–ocean models in a range of Antarctic environments through comparisons to observational data. We will assess the status of ice-sheet–ocean modelling as a community and identify common characteristics of models that are best able to capture observed features. As models are highly tuned based on present-day data, we will also compare their sensitivity to prescribed abrupt atmospheric perturbations leading to either very warm or slightly warmer ocean conditions compared to the present day. The approach of MISOMIP2 is to welcome contributions of models as they are, including global and regional configurations, but we request standardized variables and common grids for the outputs. We target the analysis at two specific regions, the Amundsen Sea and the Weddell Sea, since they describe two different ocean environments and have been relatively well observed compared to other areas of Antarctica. An observational “MIPkit” synthesizing existing ocean and ice-sheet observations for a common period is provided to evaluate ocean and ice-sheet models in these two regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica

Abstract. The ice sheet model intercomparison project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) effort brings together the ice sheet and climate modeling communities to gain understanding of the ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. ISMIP6 conducts stand-alone ice sheet experiments that use space- and time-varying forcing derived from atmosphere–ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs) to reflect plausible trajectories for climate projections. The goal of this study is to recommend a subset of CMIP5 AOGCMs (three core and three targeted) to produce forcing for ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet simulations, based on (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century. The selection is performed separately for Greenland and Antarctica. Model evaluation over the historical period focuses on variables used to generate ice sheet forcing. For stage (i), we combine metrics of atmosphere and surface ocean state (annual- and seasonal-mean variables over large spatial domains) with metrics of time-mean subsurface ocean temperature biases averaged over sectors of the continental shelf. For stage (ii), we maximize the diversity of climate projections among the best-performing models. Model selection is also constrained by technical limitations, such as availability of required data from RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 projections. The selected top three CMIP5 climate models are CCSM4, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M for Antarctica and HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M for Greenland. This model selection was designed specifically for ISMIP6 but can be adapted for other applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗