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DOE OSTI2021

Implementation of an Orographic Drag Scheme Considering Orographic Anisotropy in All Flow Directions in the Earth System Model CAS‐ESM 2.0

Abstract A reasonable representation of orographic anisotropy in earth system models is vital for improving weather and climate modeling. In this study, we implement the orographic drag scheme, including 3‐D orographic anisotropy (3D‐AFD), into the Chinese Academy of Sciences Earth System Model version 2 (CAS‐ESM 2.0). Three groups of simulations named sensitivity run, medium‐range forecast, and seasonal forecast respectively are conducted using the updated CAS‐ESM model and validated against station observation and reanalysis data. These simulations are run using the three schemes—3D‐AFD scheme, the 3D orographic anisotropy scheme for the eight‐direction (3D‐8x), and the 2D isotropic scheme (2D)—to compare their performance in CAS‐ESM 2.0. Sensitivity runs show that the 3D‐AFD provide more continuous transition of calculated drag as function of wind direction than the 3D‐8x, while the drag calculated using the 2D scheme show no variation with change of wind direction. Enhanced drag in the medium range and seasonal forecast using the updated CAS‐ESM alleviates part of the winter wind speed bias over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the cold bias over TP and the Siberian polar region. It is shown that the 3D‐AFD scheme alleviates more bias than that of the 3D‐8x scheme (by wind speed reduction of 1 ∼ 2 m/s and temperature of 1 ∼ 2 K) especially in the seasonal forecast. The results suggest that reasonable representation of the orographic anisotropy is important in climate modeling.

Xie, Jinbo↗

NASA NTRS2022

Influence of Vegetation on Simulation of the Water Balance and Hydrological Response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation in Western Tropical South America

Land surface models (LSMs) rely on vegetation parameters for use in hydrological and energy balance analysis, monitoring, and forecasting. This study examines the influence that vegetation representation in the Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) LSM has on hydrological simulations across the diverse climate zones of western tropical South America (WTSA), with specific consideration of hydrological variability associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The influence of model representation of vegetation on simulated hydrology is evaluated through three simulation experiments that use 1) satellite-derived constant MODIS; 2) satellite-derived time-varying MODIS; and 3) the Noah-MP dynamic leaf model. We find substantial differences in vegetation fields between these simulations, with the Noah-MP dynamic leaf model diverging significantly from satellite-derived vegetation fields in many ecoregions. Impacts on simulated hydrology were, however, found to be modest across climate zones, except for select extreme events. Also, although impacts on hydrology under ENSO-induced variability were small, we find that the Noah-MP dynamic leaf model simulates a positive relationship between rainfall and vegetation in humid ecoregions of WTSA, where satellite observations may indicate the opposite. The relatively small sensitivity of simulated hydrology to vegetation scheme suggests that the performance of hydrological monitoring and forecasting in WTSA that uses Noah-MP is largely unaffected by the choice of vegetation scheme, such that using a simple climatological default is generally no worse than adopting more complicated options. The presence of some differences between the time-varying and constant MODIS simulations for hydrologic extremes, however, indicates that time-varying MODIS configuration might be more suitable for hydrological hazards applications.

South America↗

NASA NTRS1969

A comparsion of sequential decoding metrics by computer simulation

Determining sequential decoding performance and metric sensitivity by computer simulation

Saliga, T. V.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data and scripts associated with the manuscript "Using Mutual Information for Global Sensitivity Analysis on Watershed Modeling"

This package contains the data and scripts used in "Using Mutual Information for Global Sensitivity Analysis on Watershed Modeling" (Jiang et al., 2022). The ARW_SWAT.zip file contains the SWAT simulation and the sensitivity analysis result in the American River Watershed. The Portage_SWAT.zip file contains the SWAT simulation and the sensitivity analysis result in the Portage River Watershed. The src folder contains the source code of sensitivity analysis and plotting functions. The notebooks folder contains the Jupyter notebooks for performing sensitivity analysis and other post analyses.Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) often is applied to assess the sensitivity of model outputs to their inputs using ensemble simulations. However, increasing model complexity and the associated computational cost have limited the use of most GSA approaches for process-based watershed models. We propose to use Mutual Information (MI) as a computationally efficient GSA method for watershed modeling. Such MI computed from several hundred realizations usually can capture nonlinear relationships between inputs and outputs of interest. We perform MI-based watershed sensitivity analyses in studies of the Portage River Watershed in Ohio and the American River Watershed in Washington. In these studies, MI is used to evaluate the sensitivity of river discharges simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to no less than 20 parameters for each watershed. Our MI-based sensitivity analyses achieved convergence with about 300~500 realizations, a small fraction of the ensemble size (i.e., several thousand) required by the Sobol method. Nevertheless, MI yields similar sensitivity ranking compared to the Sobol method, especially for sensitive parameters. Our study thus sheds new light on the use of MI as an affordable GSA method for computationally intensive models such as the hyper-resolution, watershed hydrobiogeochemical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparative Study of Variations in Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithms for the Traveling Salesman Problem

The traveling salesman problem (TSP) is one of the most often-used NP-hard problems in computer science to study the effectiveness of computing models and hardware platforms. In this regard, it is also heavily used as a vehicle to study the feasibility of the quantum computing paradigm for this class of problems. In this paper, we tackle the TSP using the quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA) approach by formulating it as an optimization problem. By adopting an improved qubit encoding strategy and a layer-wise learning optimization protocol, we present numerical results obtained from the gate-based digital quantum simulator, specifically targeting TSP instances with 3, 4, and 5 cities. We focus on the evaluations of three distinctive QAOA mixer designs, considering their performances in terms of numerical accuracy and optimization cost. Notably, we find that a well-balanced QAOA mixer design exhibits more promising potential for gate-based simulators and realistic quantum devices in the long run, an observation further supported by our noise model simulations. Furthermore, we investigate the sensitivity of the simulations to the TSP graph. Overall, our simulation results show that the digital quantum simulation of problem-inspired ansatz is a successful candidate for finding optimal TSP solutions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2012

Changes in Extratropical Storm Track Cloudiness 1983-2008: Observational Support for a Poleward Shift

Climate model simulations suggest that the extratropical storm tracks will shift poleward as a consequence of global warming. In this study the northern and southern hemisphere storm tracks over the Pacific and Atlantic ocean basins are studied using observational data, primarily from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, ISCCP. Potential shifts in the storm tracks are examined using the observed cloud structures as proxies for cyclone activity. Different data analysis methods are employed, with the objective to address difficulties and uncertainties in using ISCCP data for regional trend analysis. In particular, three data filtering techniques are explored; excluding specific problematic regions from the analysis, regressing out a spurious viewing geometry effect, and excluding specific cloud types from the analysis. These adjustments all, to varying degree, moderate the cloud trends in the original data but leave the qualitative aspects of those trends largely unaffected. Therefore, our analysis suggests that ISCCP data can be used to interpret regional trends in cloudiness, provided that data and instrumental artefacts are recognized and accounted for. The variation in magnitude between trends emerging from application of different data correction methods, allows us to estimate possible ranges for the observational changes. It is found that the storm tracks, here represented by the extent of the midlatitude-centered band of maximum cloud cover over the studied ocean basins, experience a poleward shift as well as a narrowing over the 25 year period covered by ISCCP. The observed magnitudes of these effects are larger than in current generation climate models (CMIP3). The magnitude of the shift is particularly large in the northern hemisphere Atlantic. This is also the one of the four regions in which imperfect data primarily prevents us from drawing firm conclusions. The shifted path and reduced extent of the storm track cloudiness is accompanied by a regional reduction in total cloud cover. This decrease in cloudiness can primarily be ascribed to low level clouds, whereas the upper level cloud fraction actually increases, according to ISCCP. Independent satellite observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere are consistent with the changes in total cloud cover. The shift in cloudiness is also supported by a shift in central position of the mid-troposphere meridional temperature gradient. We do not find support for aerosols playing a significant role in the satellite observed changes in cloudiness. The observed changes in storm track cloudiness can be related to local cloud-induced changes in radiative forcing, using ERBE and CERES radiative fluxes. The shortwave and the longwave components are found to act together, leading to a positive (warming) net radiative effect in response to the cloud changes in the storm track regions, indicative of positive cloud feedback. Among the CMIP3 models that simulate poleward shifts in all four storm track areas, all but one show decreasing cloud amount on a global mean scale in response to increased CO2 forcing, further consistent with positive cloud feedback. Models with low equilibrium climate sensitivity to a lesser extent than higher-sensitivity models simulate a poleward shift of the storm tracks.

Bender, Frida A-M.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Numerical Study of Wake Vortex Interaction with the Ground Using the Terminal Area Simulation System

A sensitivity study for the in-ground effect on aircraft wake vortices has been conducted using a validated large eddy simulation model. The numerical results are compared with observed data and show good agreement for vortex decay and lateral vortex transport. The vortex decay rate is strongly influenced by the ground, but appears somewhat insensitive to ambient turbulence. In addition, the results show that the ground can affect the trajectory and descent-rate of a wake vortex pair at elevations up to about 3 b(sub o) (where b(sub o) is the initial vortex separation). However, the ground does not influence the average circulation of the vortices until the cores descend to within about 0.6 b(sub o), after which time the ground greatly enhances their rate of demise. Vortex rebound occurs in the simulations, but is more subtle than shown in previous numerical studies.

Proctor, Fred H.↗

NASA NTRS2014

How Do Various Maize Crop Models Vary in Their Responses to Climate Change Factors?

Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(sup 1) per degC. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 lmol mol 1 increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.

carbon dioxide↗

NASA NTRS1992

FOCUS - An experimental environment for fault sensitivity analysis

FOCUS, a simulation environment for conducting fault-sensitivity analysis of chip-level designs, is described. The environment can be used to evaluate alternative design tactics at an early design stage. A range of user specified faults is automatically injected at runtime, and their propagation to the chip I/O pins is measured through the gate and higher levels. A number of techniques for fault-sensitivity analysis are proposed and implemented in the FOCUS environment. These include transient impact assessment on latch, pin and functional errors, external pin error distribution due to in-chip transients, charge-level sensitivity analysis, and error propagation models to depict the dynamic behavior of latch errors. A case study of the impact of transient faults on a microprocessor-based jet-engine controller is used to identify the critical fault propagation paths, the module most sensitive to fault propagation, and the module with the highest potential for causing external errors.

Choi, Gwan S.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Using Multiple Isotope-Labeled Infrared Spectra for the Structural Characterization of an Intrinsically Disordered Peptide

Intrinsically disordered proteins (IDPs) rapidly interconvert between conformers, requiring an ensemble description. This complicates their experimental characterization, and force field limitations pose challenges for their simulation. Here, in this work, we use isotope-labeled and unlabeled infrared (IR) spectra to reweight simulated ensembles of the elastin-like peptide GVGVPGVG, a paradigmatic disordered peptide. By comparing the results obtained with different spectra, we explicitly show that the weights are underdetermined by the ensemble averaged data. We identify which labels and frequency regions maximize structural information while minimizing sensitivity to simulation error and show that these regions report on whether the peptide makes specific interactions. Our work shows the importance of incorporating simulations and simulated spectra at the planning stages of isotope-labeled IR experiments and more generally provides a framework for interpreting IR data for IDPs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Towards Neutron Transformation Searches

To probe the origins of the baryon asymmetry, baryon number violation, the last unconfirmed Sakharov condition, must be definitively observed experimentally. Similarly, the nature of dark matter is currently unknown, and calls out for new candidates to be investigated. Each of these issues can be considered through the study of neutron transformations.Some rare baryon number violating processes, such as neutron-antineutron transformations, are expected to probe baryogenesis. Here, I show progress on this discovery target through construction of more accurate Monte Carlo models, the design of future detectors, creation of more complete atmospheric neutrino background simulations, and use of automated analysis techniques within the the NNBAR/HIBEAM experimental program at the European Spallation Source (ESS) and the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). First simulation-based sensitivities for these experiments will be discussed. Modeling of rare neutron-antineutron transformation and subsequent annihilation will be discussed at length for multiple nuclei useful to these and other collaborations. To go along with this work, more comprehensive lepton-scattering nuclear models must be integrated into neutrino event generators for proper atmospheric neutrino background simulations. I discuss the first furnishing of these backgrounds for DUNE, and I highlight a potential path forward for the community in this vein using precisionmore » electron scattering modeling as a facsimile.Aspects of other potentially related neutron – mirror-neutron oscillations pertinent to dark matter and the neutron lifetime anomaly will also be considered for the ESS HIBEAM experiment. Here, I will present the first experimental sensitivity calculations for a broad range of modular experimental setups which will serve as research and design stepping stones toward NNBAR while producing a multitude of physics results over short time scales.« less

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adiabatic and radiative cooling are both important causes of aerosol activation in simulated fog events in Europe

Aerosol–fog interactions affect the visibility in, and life cycle of, fog and are difficult to represent in weather and climate models. Here we explore processes that impact the simulation of fog droplet number concentrations (N d ) at sub-kilometer scale horizontal grid resolutions in the UK Met Office Unified Model. We modify the parameterization of aerosol activation to include droplet activation by radiative cooling in addition to adiabatic cooling and determine the relative importance of the two cooling mechanisms. We further test the sensitivity of simulated N d to: (a) interception of droplets by trees and buildings, (b) overestimation of updrafts in temperature inversions (which leads to artificially high N d values), and (c) potential mechanisms for droplet deactivation due to downward fluctuations in supersaturation. We evaluate our model against observations from the ParisFog and LANFEX field campaigns, building on evaluation described in the companion paper. Including radiative cooling in the activation mechanism improves how accurately we represent the liquid water path and the vertical structure of the fog in our LANFEX case study. However, with radiative cooling, the N d are overestimated for most of the ParisFog cases and for the LANFEX case. The time-averaged overestimate exceeds a factor of three (the normalized mean bias factor exceeds 2.0) in 4 out of 11 ParisFog cases. Our sensitivity studies demonstrate how these overestimates can be mitigated. Assuming the overestimate affects both radiative and adiabatic cooling, we find that although radiative cooling is more often the dominant source, both cooling sources can sometimes dominate activation.

Ghosh, Pratapaditya [Carnegie Mellon University, P↗

DOE OSTI2025

Speed Variation Based Power Regulation Concept for Dynamic Wireless Charging

On-road wireless charging of electric vehicles (EVs) in-motion could potentially reduce range anxiety or battery size with wide-spread deployment. The planning and implementation of such systems are greatly complicated due to their susceptibility to load variation inherent to traffic flow. Here, this paper proposes a method for derisking the potential for traffic slowdowns by compensating for reduced vehicle speed and investigates how implementation may affect system performance. A load modeling case study is presented at 200kW for a mile of high-speed roadway employing speed-based power regulation with results indicating average power usage and maximum car hosting capability can be reduced by 20% and increased by 30% respectively. An 85kHz power electronics model is developed based on designs and prototypes for an 11kW, 190m airgap static system and a 200kW dynamic wireless track. The simulation is validated in the 11kW experimental prototype and modified for 200kW operation to compare with simulated performance. Sensitivity studies are performed in MATLAB/Simulink to evaluate how parameters influence system performance and confirm the capability to reduce output power and maintain efficiency at 11 and 200kW. The static 11kW experimental system operates at 93.6% efficiency and multiple options exist to reduce power while maintaining efficiency greater than 90%. The capability to dynamically modify power output from WPT coils, in an experimentally validated simulation, enables techniques to significantly mitigate load variability due to reductions in vehicle speed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1994

Early development of Xenopus embryos is affected by simulated gravity

Early amphibian (Xenopus laevis) development under clinostat-simulated weightlessness and centrifuge-simulated hypergravity was studied. The results revealed significant effects on (i) 'morphological patterning' such as the cleavage furrow pattern in the vegetal hemisphere at the eight-cell stage and the shape of the dorsal lip in early gastrulae and (ii) 'the timing of embryonic events' such as the third cleavage furrow completion and the dorsal lip appearance. Substantial variations in sensitivity to simulated force fields were observed, which should be considered in interpreting spaceflight data.

Yokota, Hiroki↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pretest Simulations of a Supersonic Mixing and Combustion Validation Experiment to Assess Sensitivities

The reliance on CFD simulations to develop, design, and optimize scramjet systems (or components) has become commonplace. This reliance inevitably hinges on the ability of the computational analyst to quantify the level of confidence in their computational results. Unfortunately, nearly all the measured data available for this assessment comes from antiquated experimental datasets, or from tests that focused on the extraction of scramjet system (or component) performance. The objective of a CFD validation experiment is to quantify the predictive accuracy of one or more of the CFD physics submodels, implying that other uncertainties related to replicating the facility flow environment (e.g., knowledge of boundary conditions) must be minimized to the extent possible. This inevitably places stringent requirements on the quality and quantity of measurements taken to accurately specify inflow, outflow, and surface conditions for the CFD simulations; in addition to the measurements taken for the validation of physics submodels. This places additional demands on the experimental process above and beyond those for test article performance assessment. A recent high speed code credibility workshop series sponsored by AFRL identified a gap in existing validation data for fundamental assessments of turbulent mixing and combustion CFD closure models at scramjet engine relevant conditions. To address this gap, engineers at AFRL have designed a coaxial jet flame configuration that will be tested at two facilities (Research Cell 19 at the Air Force Research Lab, and at Purdue University). The effort described here documents pretest simulations of this validation experiment with the goal of fleshing out the extent of the facility flowpath that must be included to adequately reproduce the facility test section flow environment. The findings indicate that the flow around the support structure for the fuel injection centerbody upstream of the facility nozzle generates disturbances that persist throughout the nozzle expansion process; corrupting the azimuthal symmetry that was desired in the fuel/air mixing region of the test section. Simulations without this support structure maintained a high degree of azimuthal symmetry up until the fuel injection plane. However, even in this scenario the azimuthal symmetry was not maintained once the centerbody boundary layer transitioned to a wake flow downstream of the fuel injection plane.

CFD↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Pretest Simulations of a Supersonic Mixing and Combustion Validation Experiment to Assess Sensitivities

CFD↗

NASA NTRS2017

Computational Assessment of a 3-Stage Axial Compressor Which Provides Airflow to the NASA 11- by 11-Foot Transonic Wind Tunnel, Including Design Changes for Increased Performance

A 24 foot diameter 3-stage axial compressor powered by variable-speed induction motors provides the airflow in the closed-return 11- by 11-Foot Transonic Wind Tunnel (11-Foot TWT) Facility at NASA Ames Research Center at Moffett Field, California. The facility is part of the Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel, which was completed in 1955. Since then, upgrades made to the 11-Foot TWT such as flow conditioning devices and instrumentation have increased blockage and pressure loss in the tunnel, somewhat reducing the peak Mach number capability of the test section. Due to erosion effects on the existing aluminum alloy rotor blades, fabrication of new steel rotor blades is planned. This presents an opportunity to increase the Mach number capability of the tunnel by redesigning the compressor for increased pressure ratio. Challenging design constraints exist for any proposed design, demanding the use of the existing driveline, rotor disks, stator vanes, and hub and casing flow paths, so as to minimize cost and installation time. The current effort was undertaken to characterize the performance of the existing compressor design using available design tools and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes and subsequently recommend a new compressor design to achieve higher pressure ratio, which directly correlates with increased test section Mach number. The constant cross-sectional area of the compressor leads to highly diffusion factors, which presents a challenge in simulating the existing design. The CFD code APNASA was used to simulate the aerodynamic performance of the existing compressor. The simulations were compared to performance predictions from the HT0300 turbomachinery design and analysis code, and to compressor performance data taken during a 1997 facility test. It was found that the CFD simulations were sensitive to endwall leakages associated with stator buttons, and to a lesser degree, under-stator-platform flow recirculation at the hub. When stator button leakages were modeled, pumping capability increased by over 20 of pressure rise at design point due to a large reduction in aerodynamic blockage at the hub. Incorporating the stator button leakages was crucial to matching test data. Under-stator-platform flow recirculation was thought to be large due to a lack of seals. The effect of this recirculation was assessed with APNASA simulations recirculating 0.5, 1, and 2 of inlet flow about stators 1 and 2, modeled as axisymmetric mass flux boundary conditions on the hub before and after the vanes. The injection of flow ahead of the stators tended to re-energize the boundary layer and reduce hub separations, resulting in about 3 increased stall margin per 1 of inlet flow recirculated. In order to assess the value of the flow recirculation, a mixing plane simulation of the compressor which gridded the under-stator cavities was generated using the ADPAC CFD code. This simulation indicated that about 0.65 of the inlet flow is recirculated around each shrouded stator. This collective information was applied during the redesign of the compressor. A potential design was identified using HT0300 which improved overall pressure ratio by removing pre-swirl into rotor 1, replacing existing NASA 65 series rotors with double circular arc sections, and re-staggering rotors and the existing stators. The performance of the new design predicted by APNASA and HT0300 is compared to the existing design.

Turbomachinery↗

NASA NTRS1994

Microphysical modeling of cirrus. 2: Sensitivity studies

The one-dimensional cirrus model described in part 1 of this issue has been used to study the sensitivity of simulated cirrus microphysical and radiative properties to poorly known model parameters, poorly understood physical processes, and environmental conditions. Model parameters and physical processes investigated include nucleation rate, mode of nucleation (e.g., homogeneous freezing of aerosols and liquid droplets or heterogeneous deposition), ice crystal shape, and coagulation. These studies suggest that the leading sources of uncertainty in the model are the phase change (liquid-solid) energy barrier and the ice-water surface energy which dominate the homogeneous freezing nucleation rate and the coagulation sticking efficiency at low temperatures which controls the production of large ice crystals (radii greater than 100 mcirons). Environmental conditions considered in sensitivity tests were CN size distribution, vertical wind speed, and cloud height. We found that (unlike stratus clouds) variations in the total number of condensation nuclei (NC) have little effect on cirrus microphysical and radiative properties, since nucleation occurs only on the largest CN at the tail of the size distribution. The total number of ice crystals which nucleate has little or no relationship to the number of CN present and depends primarily on the temperature and the cooling rate. Stronger updrafts (more rapid cooling) generate higher ice number densities, ice water content, cloud optical depth, and net radiative forcing. Increasing the height of the clouds in the model leads to an increase in ice number density, a decrease in effective radius, and a decrease in ice water content. The most prominent effect of increasing cloud height was a rapid increase in the net cloud radiative forcing which can be attributed to the change in cloud temperature as well as change in cloud ice size distributions. It has long been recognized that changes in cloud height or cloud area have the greatest potential for causing feedbacks on climate change. Our results suggest that variations in vertical velocity or cloud microphysical changes associatd with cloud height changes may also be important.

Jensen, Eric J.↗