Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Seasonal cycle”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11

Three-dimensional simulations of atmospheric methyl chloroform - Effect of an ocean sink

A global three-dimensional chemical tracer model of the distribution and seasonal cycles of the surface concentration of CH3CCl3 is compared with surface observations from the Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment (ALE) for the years 1980-1985. Two-dimensional OH distributions calculated by a photochemical model are empirically adjusted from observed trends in the global average and the interhemispheric ratio of methyl chloroform. The effects of the recently discovered ocean sink for methyl chloroform were investigated. The model simulates the 5-year record of observations made at the five ALE sampling sites to generally within +/- 5 percent of the observed mean. The calculated average global lifetime of methyl chloroform is 5.7 +/- 0.3 years. The estimated global mean OH concentration is 6.5 +/- 0.4 x 10 exp 5/cu cm. However, the inclusion of the ocean sink does not significantly improve the simulation of the observed interhemispheric gradient of methyl chloroform. Atmospheric transport dominates the simulated CH3CCl3 seasonal cycle throughout the Northern Hemisphere but is less important in the Southern Hemisphere.

Tie, X.↗

Seasonal variations of troposheric ozone at Natal, Brazil

An analysis of ozone measurements from Natal, Brazil (6 deg S, 35 W), with a focus on the seasonal behavior in the troposphere, is presented. The amplitude of seasonal cycle at Natal is much larger than at Panama (9 deg N), the only other tropical site for which similar data are available. Concentrations of ozone in the middle troposphere in the southern spring are unexpectedly high, 60-70 ppb, similar to values found at northern midlatitudes in summer, and larger by 20-30 ppb than values found at Panama and at southern midlatitudes. It is suggested that photochemical production of ozone associated with emissions of CO, hydrocarbons, and NO(x) from biomass burning may contribute significantly to the high values of ozone, but note that stratospheric intrusions could also play a role. The data available at present do not permit a definitive evaluation of the relative importance of these two sources of ozone. The data from Natal, in combination with recent aircraft and surface data, show that tropical ozone exhibits strong spatial and temporal inhomogeneities. The distribution of tropospheric ozone appears to be considerably more complex than the traditional view, which suggested a northern midlatitude maximum and north/-south hemispheric asymmetry. The seasonal cycle in the total column of ozone at Natal appears to mirror the behavior of the tropospheric contribution to the ozone column rather than the stratospheric contribution, and this may account for differences in the annual cycle of the total column at Natal versus other tropical locations.

Logan, J. A.↗

Rapidly changing high-latitude seasonality: implications for the 21st century carbon cycle in Alaska

Seasonal variations in high-latitude terrestrial carbon (C) fluxes are predominantly driven by air temperature and radiation. At present, high-latitude net C uptake is largest during the summer. Recent observations and modeling studies have demonstrated that ongoing and projected climate change will increase plant productivity, microbial respiration, and growing season lengths at high-latitudes, but impacts on high-latitude C cycle seasonality (and potential feedbacks to the climate system) remain uncertain. Here we use ecosys, a well-tested and process-rich mechanistic ecosystem model that we evaluate further in this study, to explore how climate warming under an RCP8.5 scenario will shift C cycle seasonality in Alaska throughout the 21st century. The model successfully reproduced recently reported large high-latitude C losses during the fall and winter and yet still predicts a high-latitude C sink, pointing to a resolution of the current conflict between process-model and observation-based estimates of high-latitude C balance. We find that warming will result in surprisingly large changes in net ecosystem exchange (NEE; defined as negative for uptake) seasonality, with spring net C uptake overtaking summer net C uptake by year 2100. This shift is driven by a factor of 3 relaxation of spring temperature limitation to plant productivity that results in earlier C uptake and a corresponding increase in magnitude of spring NEE from –19 to –144 gC m –2 season –1 by the end of the century. Although a similar relaxation of temperature limitation will occur in the fall, radiation limitation during those months will limit increases in C fixation. Additionally, warmer soil temperatures and increased carbon inputs from plants lead to combined fall and winter C losses (163 gC m –2 ) that are larger than summer net uptake (123 gC m –2 season –1 ) by year 2100. However, this increase in microbial activity leads to more rapid N cycling and increased plant N uptake during the fall and winter months that supports large increases in spring NPP. Due to the large increases in spring net C uptake, the high-latitude atmospheric C sink is projected to sustain throughout this century. Our analysis disentangles the effects of key environmental drivers of high-latitude seasonal C balances as climate changes over the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of OMI NO2 Observations and Their Seasonal and Weekly Cycles with Ground-Based Measurements in Helsinki

We present the comparison of satellite-based OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) NO2 products with ground-based observations in Helsinki. OMI NO2 total columns, available from standard product (SP) and DOMINO algorithm, are compared with the measurements performed by the Pandora spectrometer in Helsinki in 2012. The relative difference between Pandora 21 and OMI SP retrievals is 4 and 6 for clear sky and all sky conditions, respectively. DOMINO NO2 retrievals showed slightly lower total columns with median differences about 5 and 14 for clear sky and all sky conditions, respectively. Large differences often correspond to cloudy autumn-winter days with solar zenith angles above 65. Nevertheless, the differences remain within the retrieval uncertainties. Furthermore, the weekly and seasonal cycles from OMI, Pandora and NO2 surface concentrations are compared. Both satellite- and ground-based data show a similar weekly cycle, with lower NO2 levels during the weekend compared to the weekdays as result of reduced emissions from traffic and industrial activities. Also the seasonal cycle shows a similar behavior, even though the results are affected by the fact that most of the data are available during spring-summer because of cloud cover in other seasons. This is one of few works in which OMI NO2 retrievals are evaluated in an urban site at high latitudes (60N). Despite the city of Helsinki having relatively small pollution sources, OMI retrievals have proved to be able to describe air quality features and variability similar to surface observations. This adds confidence in using satellite observations for air quality monitoring also at high latitudes.

Validation↗

Observations of polar ice using enhanced resolution microwave scatterometer data

Increasing interest in the role of ice sheets in regulating global climate has created a need for synoptic interannual recording and monitoring of the earth's major ice sheets. Based on their ability to 'see' into ice, microwave remote sensing instruments are well-suited for monitoring the polar regions. Although microwave radar has increased capabilities over some aspects of visible wavelength systems, there are tradeoffs between spatial and temporal resolution. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) can make high resolution images, but is limited in ground coverage over polar regions because of high data rates and a lack of receiving stations. Microwave scatterometers, originally designed for measuring winds over the ocean, are capable of greater ground coverage in polar regions, but are inherently low resolution instruments. However, a recently developed resolution enhancement technique can generate enhanced resolution scatterometer images. In this paper the algorithm is applied to create enhanced resolution images from Seasat and ERS-1 scatterometer data over. Time series of medium-scale radar images for Greenland and Antarctica and the surrounding seas are presented. The growth and shrinkage of the southern polar sea-ice throughout a full annual cycle is illustrated with the seasonal cycle of patterns on the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets clearly evident. Using the time series and simple scattering models, the locations of key ice facies in Greenland are determined.

Long, David G.↗

Scaling carbon fluxes from eddy covariance sites to globe: synthesis and evaluation of the FLUXCOM approach

FLUXNET comprises globally distributed eddy-covariance-based estimates of carbon fluxes between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Since eddy covariance flux towers have a relatively small footprint and are distributed unevenly across the world, upscaling the observations is necessary to obtain global-scale estimates of biosphere–atmosphere exchange. Based on cross-consistency checks with atmospheric inversions, sun-induced fluorescence (SIF) and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), here we provide a systematic assessment of the latest upscaling efforts for gross primary production (GPP) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of the FLUXCOM initiative, where different machine learning methods, forcing data sets and sets of predictor variables were employed. Spatial patterns of mean GPP are consistent across FLUXCOM and DGVM ensembles (R 2 >0.94 at 1° spatial resolution) while the majority of DGVMs show, for 70 % of the land surface, values outside the FLUXCOM range. Global mean GPP magnitudes for 2008–2010 from FLUXCOM members vary within 106 and 130 PgC yr -1 with the largest uncertainty in the tropics. Seasonal variations in independent SIF estimates agree better with FLUXCOM GPP (mean global pixel-wise R 2 ~0.75) than with GPP from DGVMs (mean global pixel-wise R 2 ~0.6). Seasonal variations in FLUXCOM NEE show good consistency with atmospheric inversion-based net land carbon fluxes, particularly for temperate and boreal regions (R 2 >0.92). Interannual variability of global NEE in FLUXCOM is underestimated compared to inversions and DGVMs. The FLUXCOM version which also uses meteorological inputs shows a strong co-variation in interannual patterns with inversions (R 2 =0.87 for 2001–2010). Mean regional NEE from FLUXCOM shows larger uptake than inversion and DGVM-based estimates, particularly in the tropics with discrepancies of up to several hundred grammes of carbon per square metre per year. These discrepancies can only partly be reconciled by carbon loss pathways that are implicit in inversions but not captured by the flux tower measurements such as carbon emissions from fires and water bodies. We hypothesize that a combination of systematic biases in the underlying eddy covariance data, in particular in tall tropical forests, and a lack of site history effects on NEE in FLUXCOM are likely responsible for the too strong tropical carbon sink estimated by FLUXCOM. Furthermore, as FLUXCOM does not account for CO 2 fertilization effects, carbon flux trends are not realistic. Overall, current FLUXCOM estimates of mean annual and seasonal cycles of GPP as well as seasonal NEE variations provide useful constraints of global carbon cycling, while interannual variability patterns from FLUXCOM are valuable but require cautious interpretation. Exploring the diversity of Earth observation data and of machine learning concepts along with improved quality and quantity of flux tower measurements will facilitate further improvements of the FLUXCOM approach overall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the relationship of the earth radiation budget to the variability of atmospheric available potential and kinetic energies

The zonal and eddy kinetics energies and available potential energies are examined for both the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres, using a data set produced by 8 years of continuous simultaneous observations of the circulation parameters and measurements of the earth radiation budget (ERB) from the Nimbus-7 ERB experiment. The relationships between the seasonal cycles in ERB and those of the energetics are obtained, showing that the solar annual cycle accounts for most of the seasonal variability. It was found that the ERB midlatitude gradients of the net balance and the outgoing radiation lead the annual cycle of the energetics by 2-3 weeks.

Randel, David L.↗

Seasonal Variation of Ozone in the Tropical Lower Stratosphere: Southern Tropics are Different from Northern Tropics

We examine the seasonal behavior of ozone by using measurements from various instruments including ozonesondes, Aura Microwave Limb Sounder, and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II. We find that the magnitude of the annual variation in ozone, as a percentage of the mean ozone, exhibits a maximum at or slightly above the tropical tropopause. The maximum is larger in the northern tropics than in the southern tropics, and the annual maximum of ozone in the southern tropics occurs 2 months later than that in the northern tropics, in contrast to usual assumption that the tropics can be treated as a horizontally homogeneous region. The seasonal cycles of ozone and other species in this part of the lower stratosphere result from a combination of the seasonal variation of the Brewer-Dobson circulation and the seasonal variation of tropical and midlatitude mixing. In the Northern Hemisphere, the impacts of upwelling and mixing between the tropics and midlatitudes on ozone are in phase and additive. In the Southern Hemisphere, they are not in phase. We apply a tropical leaky pipe model independently to each hemisphere to examine the relative roles of upwelling and mixing in the northern and southern tropical regions. Reasonable assumptions of the seasonal variation of upwelling and mixing yield a good description of the seasonal magnitude and phase in both the southern and northern tropics. The differences in the tracers and transport between the northern and southern tropical stratospheres suggest that the paradigm of well-mixed tropics needs to be revised to consider latitudinal variations within the tropics.

Mixing↗

Cloud And Precipitation Experiment at Kennaook

The remote Southern Ocean is an area of great interest to atmospheric scientists because of its influence on global atmospheric and oceanic circulation. With less influence from aerosols produced by human activities than most areas on Earth, the region provides a view into preindustrial conditions. Climate projections for the entire Earth are sensitive to the aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions in the Southern Ocean atmosphere. This is particularly true of the ubiquitous low-level clouds that control the amount of sunlight absorbed at the ocean surface. Satellite data suggest that cloud properties co-vary with the seasonal cycle of aerosols in the region. Seasonal variations in Southern Ocean aerosol properties are strong and well documented, but detailed vertically resolved measurements of clouds and precipitation in the marine boundary layer are lacking. To help fill this gap, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility will deploy a set of instruments for the Cloud And Precipitation Experiment at Kennaook (CAPE-K) from April 2024 to September 2025 in northwestern Tasmania.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Low frequency variability and tropical-extratropical interactions

In this investigation of relationships between mid-latitude 500 mb anomalies and tropical heating anomalies on the time scales of weeks to seasons are studied using outgoing IR to characterize the tropical convection heating. The data are first used to form 5-day means and the mean seasonal cycle and the interannual variability of seasonal means are then removed. The time scales considered are then between about 10 days and 90 days. By correlating the mid-latitude height anomalies with the tropical precipitation anomalies it can be shown that, on the time scales considered here, the predominant correlation patterns are those associated with Rossby waves propagating from mid-latitudes into the tropics and influencing the tropical convection. The mid-latitude Rossby waves can significantly influence convection to within 5 degrees of the equator.

Hartmann, D. L.↗

Workshop on Water on Mars

The opening session of the Workshop focused on one of the most debated areas of Mars volatiles research-the size of the planet's past and present bulk water content. Current estimates of the inventory of H2O on Mars range from an equivalent layer of liquid 10-1000 meters deep averaged over the planet's surface. The most recent of these estimates, presented at the Workshop, is based on the now popular belief that the SNC class of meteorites represent actual samples of the Martian crust. From a model of planetary accretion and degassing founded on this assumption, it was determined that the present inventory of H2O on Mars is equivalent to a global layer no more than 50 meters deep. During the discussion generated by this estimate, several investigators expressed reservations about an H2O inventory as small as a few tens of meters, for it appears to directly contradict the seemingly abundant morphologic evidence that Mars is (or has been) water rich. Others, however, argued that the interpretation of much of this morphologic evidence is at best equivocal and that the case for a wet Mars is far from established. Atmospheric water vapor measurements, compiled by Earth based telescopes and the Viking Orbiter Mars Atmospheric Water Detectors (MAWD), now span a period of over six Martian years. Analysis of this data suggests that the seasonal cycle is governed by both the sublimation and condensation of H2O at the poles and by its adsorption/desorption within the regolith. So far, efforts to simulate the seasonal vapor cycle have failed to reproduce the observed behavior.

Clifford, S.↗

Clusters of Regional Precipitation Seasonality Change in the Community Earth System Model, Version 2

Abstract The likely changes to precipitation seasonality with warming are both impactful and not well understood. This work aims to describe areas that experience similar changes to seasonal precipitation irrespective of the original underlying precipitation seasonality. We train a self-organizing map on the difference between the seasonal cycle of precipitation in the past and in a high-warming future climate as represented by the Community Earth System Model, version 2, to create regions with similar changes in precipitation seasonality. This method is applied separately over land and ocean surfaces because of the differing processes leading to precipitation over each. This method indicates that future changes in seasonal precipitation are most varied in the tropics because of a southward shift in the intertropical convergence zone. The seasonal shifts found over midlatitude oceans indicate a poleward shift in atmospheric river activity. We find a correspondence between certain land-based precipitation changes and Köppen climate classification. The seasonality of large-scale and convective precipitation is examined for each region. The relationship between the seasonal changes to precipitation and associated atmospheric processes is discussed. These processes include atmospheric rivers, the intertropical convergence zone, tropical cyclones, and monsoons.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seasonal Locking of the MJO’s Southward Detour of the Maritime Continent: The Role of the Australian Monsoon

Abstract This study investigates why the major convective envelope of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) detours to the south of the Maritime Continent (MC) only during boreal winter [December–March (DJFM)]. To examine processes affecting this MJO detour, the MJO-related variance of precipitation and column-integrated moisture anomalies in DJFM are compared with those in the seasons before [October–November (ON)] and after [April–May (AM)]. While MJO precipitation variance is much higher in the southern MC (SMC) during DJFM than in other seasons, the MJO moisture variance is comparable among the seasons, implying that the seasonal locking of the MJO’s southward detour cannot be explained by the magnitude of moisture anomalies alone. The higher precipitation variance in the SMC region is partly explained by the much higher moisture sensitivity of precipitation in DJFM than in other seasons, resulting in a more efficient conversion of anomalous moisture to anomalous precipitation. DJFM is also distinguishable from the other seasons by stronger positive wind–evaporation feedback onto MJO precipitation anomalies due to the background westerly wind in the lower troposphere. It is found that the seasonal cycle of moisture–precipitation coupling and wind–evaporation feedback in the SMC region closely follows that of the Australian monsoon, which is active exclusively in DJFM. Our results suggest that the MJO’s southward detour in the MC is seasonally locked because it occurs preferentially when the Australian monsoon system produces a background state that is favorable for MJO development in the SMC.

Intraseasonal variability↗

The astronomical theory of climatic change on Mars

The response of Martian climate to changes in solar energy deposition caused by variations of the Martian orbit and obliquity is examined. A systematic study is presented of the seasonal cycles of carbon dioxide, water, and dust to provide a complete picture of the climate for various orbital configurations. A new theory for the formation of the polar laminae is developed on the basis of this systematic examination. For the present orbital configuration and climate of Mars, it is shown that regolith damping of the seasonal CO2 cycle is unlikely; the mean atmospheric pressure is probably in equilibrium with the regolith; the low albedo of the north H2O polar cap can be explained by an admixture of 85% ice and 15% dust; and the albedo of the polar caps and the polar heat budget are very sensitive to small variations in dust deposition.

Toon, O. B.↗

The Contribution of Wide Range of Space and Time Scales to the Northward Flux of Westerly Momentum

The contribution of a wide range of time scales to the long time average of atmospheric variances and covariances, and in particular on the contribution of the annual cycle is discussed. The interannual variability of seasonally averaged fluxes is analyzed in the same context. For definiteness, numerical results will be shown for the eddy momentum flux at 200 mb as obtained from seven years of NMC analyses (March 8, 1970 - March 10, 1977). The role of the seasonal cycle is considered.

Straus, D. M.↗

Evaporation and solar irradiance as regulators of sea surface temperature in annual and interannual changes

Seven years of net surface solar irradiance (S) derived from cloud information provided by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and 4 years of surface latent heat flux (E) derived from the observations of the special sensor microwave imager (SSM/I) were used to examine the relation between surface heat fluxes and sea surface temperature (T(sub s)) in their global geographical distribution, seasonal cycle, and interannual variation. The relations of seasonal changes imply that evaporation cooling is significant over most of the ocean and that solar heating is the main drive for the change of T(sub s) away from the equatorial wave guide where ocean dynamics may be more important. However, T(sub s) is not the most direct and significant factor in the seasonal changes of S and E over most of the ocean; the solar incident angle may be more important to S, and wind speed and air humidity are found to correlate better with E. Significant local correlations between anomalies of T(sub s) and S and between anomalies of T(sub s) and E are found in the central equatorial Pacific; both types of correlation are negative. The influence of ocean dynamics in changing T(sub s) in the tropical ocean cannot be ignored.

Liu, W. Timothy↗

Machine Learning-Assisted High-Temperature Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage Optimization: Numerical Modeling and Machine Learning Input and Output Files

This data set includes the numerical modeling input files and output files used to synthesize data, and the reduced-order machine learning models trained from the synthesized data for reservoir thermal energy storage site identification. In this study, a machine-learning-assisted computational framework is presented to identify High-Temperature Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage (HT-RTES) site with optimal performance metrics by combining physics-based simulation with stochastic hydrogeologic formation and thermal energy storage operation parameters, artificial neural network regression of the simulation data, and genetic algorithm-enabled multi-objective optimization. A doublet well configuration with a layered (aquitard-aquifer-aquitard) generic reservoir is simulated for cases of continuous operation and seasonal-cycle operation scenarios. Neural network-based surrogate models are developed for the two scenarios and applied to generate the Pareto fronts of the HT-RTES performance for four potential HT-RTES sites. The developed Pareto optimal solutions indicate the performance of HT-RTES is operation-scenario (i.e., fluid cycle) and reservoir-site dependent, and the performance metrics have competing effects for a given site and a given fluid cycle. The developed neural network models can be applied to identify suitable sites for HT-RTES, and the proposed framework sheds light on the design of resilient HT-RTES systems. All the simulations and the neural network model were done by Idaho National Laboratory. A detailed description of the work was reported in publication linked below.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗