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DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Manufacturing Water Resilience: Addressing Risks through New Approaches and Technologies

Water is indispensable in manufacturing operations, and many manufacturers operate on the assumption that water of sufficient quality and quantity will be available whenever and wherever needed. As such, the importance of water to this sector has been overlooked, despite its critical importance for operations and meeting production demands, due to perceived sufficient availability and low cost of water to manufacturers. However, the situation is changing as water-related risks are markedly increasing due to aging infrastructure, changing climate, and resource extraction, which alter global and regional water cycles and characteristics. These changes are occurring against a backdrop of intensifying competition from other sectors for scarce and/or unevenly distributed water resources and changing trends in water needs. Section 1 of this report explores those risks in the U.S. context, while the remaining sections detail the work needed to advance the resilience of manufacturing water supplies to these changing risks by filling critical data gaps, re-evaluating the value of water to manufacturers, and advancing opportunities for novel technologies and analyses. The intended audience for this report is broad, including manufacturers, decision makers, researchers, and policymakers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Opportunities for Using the Industrial Assessment Center Database for Industrial Water Use Analysis

The manufacturing sector accounted for approximately 5–6% of total U.S. water use in 2015. Of that amount, 75–80% is self supplied withdrawal from surface-water and groundwater sources and the remainder is from public water supplies. Although manufacturing facilities commonly locate in water-scarce areas, water scarcity still poses a great risk to the manufacturing sector. Reliable water is necessary for any facility that relies on it for process and comfort cooling, cleaning, employee use, and steam generation. One of these barriers to water efficiency is the lack of reliable data on overall U.S. industrial water use—how it is used and the quantities required for each sector. If a facility cannot be easily compared with a facility of similar size and sector, knowing if it is effectively using water conservation best practices is difficult. One potential source of industrial water use data is the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)–sponsored Industrial Assessment Centers (IACs). IACs are university-based organizations that provide free audits to small- and medium-sized manufacturing facilities to identify productivity improvement and waste and energy reduction opportunities. The IACs also maintain a database of all the audits conducted, which currently holds more than 19,267 assessments and 145,000 recommendations (as of July 24, 2020). This database also contains energy utility (electricity, natural gas, and other fuels) and water utility data, making it a potential data source for industrial water use. This report attempts to create regression models to predict a small- or medium-sized industrial facility’s annual water use or cost based on its industrial subsector and several possible relevant variables. Using data collected by IAC assessments, models for several industrial subsectors were generated via stepwise regression techniques to determine which variables (annual sales, number of employees, facility/plant area, annual production hours, and a water stress metric) are relevant.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Manufacturing Water Resilience: Addressing Risks through New Approaches and Technologies

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the nexus between groundwater and solar energy plants in a desert basin with a dual-model approach under uncertainty

Globally, many solar power plants and other types of renewable energy are being located in water-scarce regions. Many projects rely on groundwater resources whose sustainability is uncertain. In the Chuckwalla Basin in California, quantification of recharge and trans-valley underflow is needed to estimate the impacts of solar project withdrawals on the water table. However, such estimates are highly challenging due to data scarcity, heterogeneous soils and long residence times. Conventional assessment employs isolated groundwater models configured with crude and uniform estimates of recharge. Here, we employ a data-constrained surface subsurface processes model, PAWS+CLM, to provide an ensemble of recharges and underflows with perturbed parameters. Then, the Parameter Estimation (PEST) package is used to calibrate MODFLOW aquifer conductivity and filter out implausible recharges. The novel dual-model approach, potentially applicable in other arid regions, can effectively assimilate groundwater head observations, reject unrealistic parameters, and narrow the range of estimated drawdowns. Simulated recharge concentrates along alluvial fans at the mountain fronts and ephemeral washes where run-off water infiltrates. If an evenly distributed recharge was assumed, it resulted in under-estimated drawdown and larger uncertainty bounds. The withdrawals are approaching total inflow, suggesting the system will be nearing, if not exceeding, its sustainable groundwater production capacity, and a boom of such projects will not be sustainable. Especially, the cost/benefit of pumped-storage projects is called into question as the initial-fill phase depletes entire area’s recharge. Our study highlights the stress on groundwater resources of solar development, and that the speed of groundwater recovery does not indicate sustainability. Main point 1: A novel dual model approach, involving an integrated surface/subsurface model and a groundwater parameter-estimation model, was able to better constrain the model. Main point 2: The groundwater system may be nearing, if not exceeding, its sustainable groundwater production capacity and the speed of recovery is not indicative of sustainability. Main point 3: Results from using conventionally-assumed uniform recharge distort calibrated K fields and impacts assessment

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

A systematic literature review on residential demand response with a focus on opportunities for low-income communities

Demand Response improves efficiency and grid stability, reducing peak load and total system costs. It can potentially contribute to other societal aspects, including mitigating climate change and improving air quality, health, stress levels, and comfort. This paper reviewed the literature on residential demand response programs in the United States, through the lens of the five energy justice principles, identifying and categorizing a set of 165 papers from 1960 to 2024. As a result, we observe significant progress in distributive justice, however, mostly focused on increasing participation rather than attending specific needs of historically marginalized communities. Concordantly, recognition and procedural justice dimensions are lagging, while cosmopolitan justice studies are scarce, underscoring a need to improve the measurement of impacts resulting from the implementation of demand response programs. Future research opportunities include the consolidation of standardized definitions and metrics, to better understand burdens and needs of diverse residential users. In terms of policy, collection and transparent access to standardized data is required as a condition to the design of flexible, customizable, transparent, and easy to navigate demand response programs. As a result, a better understanding of and engagement with customers has the potential to increase adoption rates, persistence in the program, and overall impacts for the system, households, and society.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

DNABERT-S: pioneering species differentiation with species-aware DNA embeddings

SUMMARY: We introduce DNABERT-S, a tailored genome model that develops species-aware embeddings to naturally cluster and segregate DNA sequences of different species in the embedding space. Differentiating species from genomic sequences (i.e. DNA and RNA) is vital yet challenging, since many real-world species remain uncharacterized, lacking known genomes for reference. Embedding-based methods are therefore used to differentiate species in an unsupervised manner. DNABERT-S builds upon a pre-trained genome foundation model named DNABERT-2. To encourage effective embeddings to error-prone long-read DNA sequences, we introduce Manifold Instance Mixup (MI-Mix), a contrastive objective that mixes the hidden representations of DNA sequences at randomly selected layers and trains the model to recognize and differentiate these mixed proportions at the output layer. We further enhance it with the proposed Curriculum Contrastive Learning (C2LR) strategy. Empirical results on 28 diverse datasets show DNABERT-S's effectiveness, especially in realistic label-scarce scenarios. For example, it identifies twice more species from a mixture of unlabeled genomic sequences, doubles the Adjusted Rand Index (ARI) in species clustering, and outperforms the top baseline's performance in 10-shot species classification with just a 2-shot training. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Model, codes, and data are publically available at https://github.com/MAGICS-LAB/DNABERT_S.

Zhou, Zhihan↗

DOE OSTI2025

Challenges and strategies for probing the composite interface of PEM electrolyzers and fuel cells using operando AP-XPS

Left: cross-section schematic of a membrane electrode assembly, the working electrode changing state with applied potential. Center: the operando cell design that enables snapshot data acquisition during trajectory movement. Right: resulting spectra. Understanding the surface chemistry of electrocatalyst systems under operando conditions is central to revealing the electrocatalytic cell's working mechanisms. Determination of these catalytic processes on a molecular scale and the involved components is fundamental to streamlining material design for energy conversion and storage applications. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) is an established technique used to study the chemical and electronic states of materials. While the surface sensitivity of XPS is typically high, use of tender X-ray energies and technical advancements have allowed for the direct probing of solid–vapor and solid–liquid interfaces. However, protocols and documentation of experimental considerations for operando XPS probing of working electrolyzers and fuel cells remain scarce. Herein, we report an approach for the study of working polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) electrolysis cells using ambient pressure X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (AP-XPS). This approach directly probes the composite electrode surface on the membrane electrode assembly (MEA) in 100% relative humidity to establish a meaningful liquid layer for electrocatalysis. We carry out a systematic investigation from the cell constituent components to a fully assembled working operando electrolytic system and establish a method for AP-XPS study of the complex composite MEA, providing recommendations for data acquisition and component analysis.

Hamlyn, Rebecca↗

DOE OSTI2022

When not to use machine learning: A perspective on potential and limitations

Abstract The unparalleled success of artificial intelligence (AI) in the technology sector has catalyzed an enormous amount of research in the scientific community. It has proven to be a powerful tool, but as with any rapidly developing field, the deluge of information can be overwhelming, confusing, and sometimes misleading. This can make it easy to become lost in the same hype cycles that have historically ended in the periods of scarce funding and depleted expectations known as AI winters. Furthermore, although the importance of innovative, high-risk research cannot be overstated, it is also imperative to understand the fundamental limits of available techniques, especially in young fields where the rules appear to be constantly rewritten and as the likelihood of application to high-stakes scenarios increases. In this article, we highlight the guiding principles of data-driven modeling, how these principles imbue models with almost magical predictive power, and how they also impose limitations on the scope of problems they can address. Particularly, understanding when not to use data-driven techniques, such as machine learning, is not something commonly explored, but is just as important as knowing how to apply the techniques properly. We hope that the discussion to follow provides researchers throughout the sciences with a better understanding of when said techniques are appropriate, the pitfalls to watch for, and most importantly, the confidence to leverage the power they can provide. Graphical abstract

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Parameterization of arctic hydrometeor physics using new precipitation measurement technologies: Final Report

Predictions of precipitation are highly sensitive to the accuracy of parameterized growth and sedimentation processes, especially in remote regions such as the Arctic where observations are scarce. The goal of this study was to combine measurements of meteorological conditions and retrievals from passive and active remote sensors to provide refined parameterizations of precipitation properties and processes with a particular focus on the Arctic. To accomplish the project goals, new instrumentation was used from the Oliktok Point Mobile Facility and the Utqiagvik (Barrow) North Slope of Alaska ARM site focusing in particular on Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera (MASC) data. The MASC is the first device able to automatically photograph precipitation particles in free-fall from multiple angles while simultaneously measuring their fall speed. The MASC installed at the ARM Oliktok Point and Utqiagvik facilities was used to examine the nature of Arctic precipitation, taking particular advantage of the unique suite of precipitation, meteorological, and remote sensing instrumentation that is available at the high latitude sites. Combined with radiometer data we were able to explore the relationship between precipitation particle characteristics and the clouds where the snow is created. Ground-based wind measurements provided detailed data on turbulence. Further theoretical work explored the physical mechanisms controlling precipitation size distributions, the physics determining hydrometeor fallspeed, and the existence of general solutions to the Navier-Stokes equations for falling particles. Outreach work introduced hydrometeor classification to classrooms across the United States.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tracing the impacts of Mount Pinatubo eruption on regional climate using spatially-varying changepoint detection

Significant events, such as volcanic eruptions, can have global and long-lasting impacts on climate. These global impacts, however, are not uniform across space and time. Understanding how the Mt. Pinatubo eruption affects global and regional climate is of great interest for predicting the impact on climate due to similar events as well as understanding the possible effect of the stratospheric aerosol injections proposed to combat climate change. While many studies illustrated the impact of the Pinatubo eruption on a global scale, studies at a fine regional scale are scarce. Here, we propose a Bayesian spatially-varying changepoint detection and estimation method to trace the impact of Mt. Pinatubo eruption on regional climate. Our approach takes into account the diffusing nature and spatial correlation of the climate changes attributed to the volcanic eruption. We illustrate our method and demonstrate its advantages over an existing changepoint detection method through simulations. Finally, we apply our method to monthly stratospheric aerosol optical depth and surface temperature data from 1985 to 1995 to detect and estimate changepoints following the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption. Our results quantitatively characterize the spatial pattern of the eruption’s impact on regional climate, complementing the previous studies on the global impact of the Pinatubo eruption.

Aerosol optical depth↗

DOE OSTI2021

Shrinkage-induced deformations and creep of structural concrete: 1-year measurements and numerical prediction

Highlights: • Extensive experimental study on drying shrinkage, creep and microcracking of concrete • All specimens prepared from a single batch of ordinary-strength structural concrete • 1st year of measurements of (not only) non-uniformly drying beams with span up to 3-m • The database is downloadable from free-to-use research data repository • Modified MPS model for concrete creep used in blind prediction of all experiments The material models for creep and shrinkage operating on the material point level in FEM are usually intended for challenging complex applications and structures, where the average cross-sectional approach does not suffice. The identification of the growing number of material parameters induced by increasing model capabilities relies on very specific and narrow-oriented yet interconnected experiments which are scarce. The presented comprehensive experiments aim to provide a clearer image of the complicated interaction among the basic phenomena: drying, shrinkage, creep, and microcracking. The cornerstone of this ongoing research is a unique set of 30 partially-sealed unreinforced concrete beams with span 1.75–3.0 m subjected to drying. To minimize material variation, all specimens in this study were cast from a single batch of ordinary strength structural concrete with slag-blended binder. The resulting experimental database will be suitable both for validation and development of the constitutive models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Matrix Completion for Improved Observability in Low-Voltage Distribution Grids

This paper considers the problem of recovering missing entries in a partially observed matrix from relatively few measurements (i.e., the so-called matrix completion problem) with the aim of increasing the presently limited observability of low-voltage distribution grids. To this end, the partially observed matrix is formed using scarce voltage magnitude measurements while accounting for their spatial information. Voltage readings are assumed to be collected from distribution utility sensors and/or geographically-distributed cable television network sensors located in immediate proximity to distribution grid nodes. A matrix completion approach built on the parameter-less singular value shrinkage technique is used to estimate voltage magnitudes at otherwise non-observable low-voltage nodes using a small number of single- or multiple-snapshot data. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated using a U.S.-style distribution test system from the synthetic SMART- DS data set under very low- to moderate-observability conditions.

low-rank matrix completion↗

DOE OSTI2022

Adaptive responses of marine diatoms to zinc scarcity and ecological implications

Scarce dissolved surface ocean concentrations of the essential algal micronutrient zinc suggest that Zn may influence the growth of phytoplankton such as diatoms, which are major contributors to marine primary productivity. However, the specific mechanisms by which diatoms acclimate to Zn deficiency are poorly understood. Using global proteomic analysis, we identified two proteins (ZCRP-A/B, Zn/Co Responsive Protein A/B) among four diatom species that became abundant under Zn/Co limitation. Characterization using reverse genetic techniques and homology data suggests putative Zn/Co chaperone and membrane-bound transport complex component roles for ZCRP-A (a COG0523 domain protein) and ZCRP-B, respectively. Metaproteomic detection of ZCRPs along a Pacific Ocean transect revealed increased abundances at the surface (<200 m) where dZn and dCo were scarcest, implying Zn nutritional stress in marine algae is more prevalent than previously recognized. These results demonstrate multiple adaptive responses to Zn scarcity in marine diatoms that are deployed in low Zn regions of the Pacific Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Detection of open cluster rotation fields from Gaia EDR3 proper motions

Context: Most stars from in groups which with time disperse, building the field population of their host galaxy. In the Milky Way, open clusters have been continuously forming in the disk up to the present time, providing it with stars spanning a broad range of ages and masses. Observations of the details of cluster dissolution are, however, scarce. One of the main difficulties is obtaining a detailed characterisation of the internal cluster kinematics, which requires very high-quality proper motions. For open clusters, which are typically loose groups with tens to hundreds of members, there is the additional difficulty of inferring kinematic structures from sparse and irregular distributions of stars. Aims: Here, we aim to analyse internal stellar kinematics of open clusters, and identify rotation, expansion, or contraction patterns. Methods: We use Gaia Early Data Release 3 (EDR3) astrometry and integrated nested Laplace approximations to perform vector-field inference and create spatio-kinematic maps of 1237 open clusters. The sample is composed of clusters for which individual stellar memberships were already known, thus minimising contamination from field stars in the velocity maps. Projection effects were corrected using EDR3 data complemented with radial velocities from Gaia Data Release 2 and other surveys. Results: We report the detection of rotation patterns in eight open clusters. Nine additional clusters display possible rotation signs. We also observe 14 expanding clusters, with 15 other objects showing possible expansion patterns. Contraction is evident in two clusters, with one additional cluster presenting a more uncertain detection. In total, 53 clusters are found to display kinematic structures. Within these, elongated spatial distributions suggesting tidal tails are found in five clusters. These results indicate that the approach developed here can recover kinematic patterns from noisy vector fields, as those from astrometric measurements of open clusters or other stellar or galactic populations, thus offering a powerful probe for exploring the internal kinematics and dynamics of these types of objects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Model-Agnostic Signal Discovery with Machine Learning: Bridging the Gap Between Theory and Practice

Searches for new phenomena in complex scientific data are predominantly model-dependent, optimized for specific hypotheses, and therefore limited in their coverage of the space of possible signals. Recently, new AI-based model-agnostic search strategies, many of which have been pioneered in high-energy physics, have been proposed which provide a complementary paradigm, prioritizing broad exploration over tailored analyses. These techniques offer an opportunity to enhance the overall discovery potential of modern experiments, especially in regimes where theoretical guidance is scarce. In this document, we review the conceptual framework behind the main classes of AI-based model-agnostic strategies. We discuss the potential pitfalls of these methods, and strategies for their validation and interpretation. We aim for this document to serve as a useful reference both for practitioners and for researchers interested in learning more about these model-agnostic search strategies.

Amram, Oz [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000237653123)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Insight into premixed diethoxymethane flames: Laminar burning velocities, temperatures, and emissions behaviour

Diethoxymethane ((CH 3 CH 2 O) 2 CH 2 , DEM) is a promising carbon-neutral fuel. DEM is a diether or acetal with a molecular structure similar to oxymethylene ethers (CH 3 O–(CH 2 O)n–CH 3 , OME n ). Thus, DEM can be expected to have a similar combustion behavior to OMEs, reducing harmful emissions such as NO x and particulate matter (PM) in internal combustion engines. From both experimental and kinetic modeling, fundamental studies on DEM are scarce in the literature. More studies are required to gain a detailed insight into the oxidation kinetics of DEM. Laminar burning velocity (LBV) is a critical property that allows a detailed assessment of the potential application of DEM in combustion devices. Unfortunately, the literature on the LBV of DEM is limited. Therefore, in this study we have investigated the LBV of DEM using two reactors for the first time, namely a heat flux burner and a combustion chamber. The experimental data is reported for equivalence ratio between 0.7 and 1.7, initial temperatures of 368–423 K, and initial pressure of 1–5 bar. In addition, we developed a detailed kinetic model extending our recent work of Shrestha et al. (Combust. Flame. 246 (2022) 112,426) to characterize the combustion behavior of DEM utilizing the new experimental data from this work and the literature data. Our model performs remarkably well in capturing the newly measured LBV experimental data over various experimental conditions. We found that DEM and dimethoxy methane (DMM) have similar values of LBVs (within ±1.5 cm/s) for a given condition, which indicates that intermediate chemistry governs the flame chemistry. Despite DEM being a larger molecule that is expected to have slightly lower LBVs than DMM, its effect on the measured values of LBVs is negligible. Finally, we experimentally measured NO x formation in DEM flame for the first time. The stochiometric flame has the highest NO x formation. The proposed model predicted the equivalence ratio dependence of NO x nicely. However, it overestimates the NO x formation for stoichiometric DEM/air mixtures by ~30 %. The model suggests that the thermal NO formation route is favored at lean and stochiometric conditions. In contrast, the prompt NO formation route is enhanced for rich mixtures.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning for detection of 3D features using sparse x-ray tomographic reconstruction

In many inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments, the neutron yield and other parameters cannot be completely accounted for with one and two dimensional models. This discrepancy suggests that there are three dimensional effects that may be significant. Sources of these effects include defects in the shells and defects in shell interfaces, the fill tube of the capsule, and the joint feature in double shell targets. Due to their ability to penetrate materials, x rays are used to capture the internal structure of objects. Methods such as computational tomography use x-ray radiographs from hundreds of projections, in order to reconstruct a three dimensional model of the object. In experimental environments, such as the National Ignition Facility and Omega-60, the availability of these views is scarce, and in many cases only consists of a single line of sight. Mathematical reconstruction of a 3D object from sparse views is an ill-posed inverse problem. These types of problems are typically solved by utilizing prior information. Neural networks have been used for the task of 3D reconstruction as they are capable of encoding and leveraging this prior information. We utilize half a dozen, different convolutional neural networks to produce different 3D representations of ICF implosions from the experimental data. Deep supervision is utilized to train a neural network to produce high-resolution reconstructions. These representations are used to track 3D features of the capsules, such as the ablator, inner shell, and the joint between shell hemispheres. Machine learning, supplemented by different priors, is a promising method for 3D reconstructions in ICF and x-ray radiography, in general.

Wolfe, Bradley T. (ORCID:0000000268301614)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Anisotropic electron damping and energy gap in Bi 2 ⁢Sr 2 ⁢CaCu 2 ⁢O 8+𝛿

The many-body electron-electron interaction in cuprates causes broadening of the electronic bands in 𝒌 space, leading to a deviation from the standard Fermi liquid. While a 𝒌-dependent anisotropic electronic scattering (𝒌-DAES) has been assessed by photoemission, its fingerprint in 𝑸 space has been scarcely considered. Here, we explore the 𝑸-dependent electron dynamics in optimally doped Bi 2⁢ Sr 2 ⁢CaCu 2 ⁢O 8+𝛿 through the evolution of low-energy charge excitations as measured by resonant inelastic x-ray scattering (RIXS). In the normal state, the RIXS spectra display a continuum of excitations down to 0 meV, while the superconducting state features a spectral weight suppression below 80 meV without any enhancement at higher energies. To interpret the energy and 𝑸 evolution of our data, we introduce a phenomenological expression of the charge susceptibility by including the 𝒌-DAES. We show that only the charge susceptibility with 𝒌-DAES captures the RIXS data, highlighting the importance of 𝒌-DAES when describing the 𝑸 dependence of charge excitations from 0 to a few eV scale. Furthermore, we also find that the inclusion of 𝒌-DAES is essential when quantitative parameters such as the electronic energy gap are extracted from RIXS data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗