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At least 199 records · Page 11

Drift-kinetic effects of tungsten on plasma response to RMP in ITER

Here, effects of high- Z ( Z is the particle charge number) tungsten impurity ions on the plasma response to the resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) field are numerically investigated for the ITER 15 MA baseline scenario, where the tungsten contribution to the plasma response is computed with a drift-kinetic model while the bulk thermal particle contributions follow the fluid approximation. The study yields three highlights: (i) the drift-kinetic contribution of the tungsten impurity exerts minor influence on the plasma response compared to that computed by the pure fluid model without tungsten; (ii) a new figure of merit, based on the resonant spectrum perturbation at the plasma boundary surface, results in different optimal coil phasing compared to that previously obtained by maximizing the edge-peeling plasma response; (iii) the optimal $n = 3$ RMP (for edge localized mode (ELM) control, $n$ is the toroidal mode number) is found to induce a large tungsten particle influx near the plasma edge associated with the neoclassical toroidal viscosity. The study thus provides useful data on the compatibility of the full tungsten wall with RMP ELM control in ITER.

ITER↗

Particle scale impacts on deconstruction energy of pine residues

The goal of this Case Study was to quantify the impacts of variable moisture and ash on hammer mill throughput and energy consumption and on generation of fines that are not able to be fed to conversion, as compared to a status quo Base Case system. Also considered was convertible carbon content (minimum carbon specification) and maximum ash content and the delivered feedstock cost impacts of not being able to feed residue not meeting both specifications to the conversion reactor. Laboratory data on the impacts of input particle size and moisture content on the exit particle size were received from FCIC Subtask 5.2 from their single particle impact population balance modeling study. Additional throughput and energy consumption data were obtained from FCIC Subtask 5.2 for the same grinder with a 6 mm screen in place. These data were utilized to develop the necessary response surface equations to perform throughput analysis using discrete event simulation. Because the ash contents in the separated fines had not been analyzed in the laboratory at the time of the model runs, we chose to assume that the ash distributed proportionally with total mass into the overs and unders in the disk screen following grinding. Key takeaways from this Case Study are that it is significantly more cost effective to hammer mill the residue prior to drying, even though the grinder throughput is lower and energy consumption is higher versus drying first before grinding. An effect of dry grinding versus high moisture grinding is the production of higher amounts of fines during dry grinding, leading to significantly more of the ground feedstock being rejected by conversion for being below a minimum particle size. With wet grinding the system is still able to produce more preprocessed feedstock meeting the minimum particle size specification even though the instantaneous throughput is lower than for the case of grinding dry feedstock. Additionally, even without the higher fines production from dry grinding, the status quo would still be more costly than wet grinding because the material is rejected after the drying energy has already been input for the dry grinding case. Finally, significant reductions in drying energy are obtained by drying after grinding, and those reductions are of far greater magnitude than the grinding energy increase.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Implementation and Exploration of Parameterizations of Large-Scale Dynamics in NCAR's Single Column Atmosphere Model SCAM6

A single column model with parameterized large-scale (LS) dynamics is used to better understand the response of steady-state tropical precipitation to relative sea surface temperature under various representations of radiation, convection, and circulation. The large-scale dynamics are parametrized via the weak temperature gradient (WTG), damped gravity wave (DGW), and spectral weak temperature gradient (Spectral WTG) method in NCAR's Single Column Atmosphere Model (SCAM6). Radiative cooling is either specified or interactive, and the convective parameterization is run using two different values of a parameter that controls the degree of convective inhibition. Results are interpreted in the context of the Global Atmospheric System Studies -Weak Temperature Gradient (GASS-WTG) Intercomparison project. Using the same parameter settings and simulation configuration as in the GASS-WTG Intercomparison project, SCAM6 under the WTG and DGW methods produces erratic results, suggestive of numerical instability. However, when key parameters are changed to weaken the large-scale circulation's damping of tropospheric temperature variations, SCAM6 performs comparably to single column models in the GASS-WTG Intercomparison project. The Spectral WTG method is less sensitive to changes in convection and radiation than are the other two methods, performing qualitatively similarly across all configurations considered. Under all three methods, circulation strength, represented in 1D by grid-scale vertical velocity, is decreased when barriers to convection are reduced. This effect is most extreme under specified radiative cooling, and is shown to come from increased static stability in the column's reference radiative-convective equilibrium profile. This argument can be extended to interactive radiation cases as well, though perhaps less conclusively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Spread of Ocean Heat Uptake Efficiency Traced to Ocean Salinity

Abstract Ocean heat uptake (OHU) plays an important role in determining the rate of surface warming under CO 2 forcing. We examined the transient response to CO 2 forcing in a set of 30 climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and found that the intermodel spread in OHU efficiency largely depends on the base‐state ocean stratification, especially in the Southern Ocean. This dependence is primarily traced to ocean salinity rather than ocean temperature. Models with weaker ocean stratification primarily due to higher upper‐ocean salinity tend to sequester heat into the deeper ocean, leading to a lower rate of surface warming, a primary reason for higher OHU efficiency; the stratification impact on total OHU is secondary. We applied the relationship between salinity and OHU efficiency for an emergent constraint on OHU efficiency, suggesting an OHU efficiency higher than the CMIP6 multimodel average and arguing against models with extremely low efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-scale modeling of the electric field assisted sintering process

The electric field assisted sintering (EFAS) process involves tightly coupled physics that influence microstructural evolution in the particles being compacted. It is also an inherently multi-scale phenomenon, with the microstructure of the compact influencing the subsequent engineering-scale response of the sintering system. To improve understanding of how processing parameters influence microstructural evolution, we have developed a multi-scale modeling approach that couples a continuum-level model of the sintering system with a phase-field model for microstructural evolution of particles within the compact. The phase-field model couples the effect of chemical and electrical driving forces on microstructural evolution and includes the effect of charged defect segregation to surfaces and grain boundaries; this segregation leads to enhanced defect transport and heat generation at these interfaces in response to applied electric field. The effect of enhanced heat generation on particle neck growth and the influence of microstructural evolution on the engineering-scale model are demonstrated.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Multi-scale modeling of the electric field assisted sintering process

The electric field assisted sintering (EFAS) process involves tightly coupled physics that influence microstructural evolution in the particles being compacted. It is also an inherently multi-scale phenomenon, with the microstructure of the compact influencing the subsequent engineering-scale response of the sintering system. To improve understanding of how processing parameters influence microstructural evolution, we have developed a multi-scale modeling approach that couples a continuum-level model of the sintering system with a phase-field model for microstructural evolution of particles within the compact. The phase-field model couples the effect of chemical and electrical driving forces on microstructural evolution and includes the effect of charged defect segregation to surfaces and grain boundaries; this segregation leads to enhanced defect transport and heat generation at these interfaces in response to applied electric field. The effect of enhanced heat generation on particle neck growth and the influence of microstructural evolution on the engineering-scale model are demonstrated.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Observational Evidence of State‐Dependent Positive and Negative Land Surface Feedback on Afternoon Deep Convection Over the Southern Great Plains

Abstract The detection of soil moisture‐precipitation feedback is complicated by the dependence of feedback sign on atmospheric state and cloud types. We evaluated responses of convective clouds to changes in surface evaporative fraction (EF) from satellite and ground‐based measurements over the Southern Great Plains in summer months. Strong responses to EF were inferred only after accounting for tropospheric states supporting systematically positive or negative responses. State dependence (inferred from controlled model experiments) explains the weak response found in previous studies. The probability of transitions from shallow to deep cumulus, and subsequent precipitation onset, increases by 58% over drier surfaces in weakly stratified environments having deeper boundary layers. Boundary layer dynamics play a more important role than low‐level relative humidity in these environments. Wetter surfaces yield increased deep convection in moist and thermally stratified environments. The distinct pathways of convective initiation over dry and wet land surfaces can play important roles in drought onset and termination.

Qiu, Shaoyue↗

Calibrating hypersonic turbulence flow models with the HIFiRE-1 experiment using data-driven machine-learned models.

In this paper we study the efficacy of combining machine-learning methods with projection-based model reduction techniques for creating data-driven surrogate models of computationally expensive, high-fidelity physics models. Such surrogate models are essential for many-query applications e.g., engineering design optimization and parameter estimation, where it is necessary to invoke the high-fidelity model sequentially, many times. Surrogate models are usually constructed for individual scalar quantities. However there are scenarios where a spatially varying field needs to be modeled as a function of the model’s input parameters. Here we develop a method to do so, using projections to represent spatial variability while a machine-learned model captures the dependence of the model’s response on the inputs. The method is demonstrated on modeling the heat flux and pressure on the surface of the HIFiRE-1 geometry in a Mach 7.16 turbulent flow. The surrogate model is then used to perform Bayesian estimation of freestream conditions and parameters of the SST (Shear Stress Transport) turbulence model embedded in the high-fidelity (Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes) flow simulator, using shock-tunnel data. The paper provides the first-ever Bayesian calibration of a turbulence model for complex hypersonic turbulent flows. We find that the primary issues in estimating the SST model parameters are the limited information content of the heat flux and pressure measurements and the large model-form error encountered in a certain part of the flow.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Subsurface Cooling and Sea Surface Temperature Pattern Formation Over the Equatorial Pacific

Abstract The equatorial cold tongue region has not warmed up in response to historical radiative forcing in the real world, contrary to the strong warming often simulated by climate models. Here we demonstrate that climate models fail to represent one or both of the key processes driving observed sea surface temperature (SST) pattern formation: a realistic surface wind stress pattern shaping subsurface cooling through wind‐driven circulation changes, and effective connectivity between subsurface and surface temperatures via upwelling and mixing. Consequently, none of the models approximate the observed lack of cold tongue SST warming and strengthening of zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific. Furthermore, those that come closest achieve this due to interhemispheric warming differences rather than equatorial dynamics as observed. Addressing different origins of subsurface cooling in observations and simulations, and how they connect to SST, will lead to improved understanding of tropical Pacific SST changes to date and how they will evolve in the future.

Jiang, Feng [Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Colu↗

Elucidating the active phases of CoOx films on Au(111) in the CO oxidation reaction

Abstract Noble metals supported on reducible oxides, like CoO x and TiO x , exhibit superior activity in many chemical reactions, but the origin of the increased activity is not well understood. To answer this question we studied thin films of CoO x supported on an Au(111) single crystal surface as a model for the CO oxidation reaction. We show that three reaction regimes exist in response to chemical and topographic restructuring of the CoO x catalyst as a function of reactant gas phase CO/O 2 stoichiometry and temperature. Under oxygen-lean conditions and moderate temperatures (≤150 °C), partially oxidized films (CoO x<1 ) containing Co 0 were found to be efficient catalysts. In contrast, stoichiometric CoO films containing only Co 2+ form carbonates in the presence of CO that poison the reaction below 300 °C. Under oxygen-rich conditions a more oxidized catalyst phase (CoO x>1 ) forms containing Co 3+ species that are effective in a wide temperature range. Resonant photoemission spectroscopy (ResPES) revealed the unique role of Co 3+ sites in catalyzing the CO oxidation. Density function theory (DFT) calculations provided deeper insights into the pathway and free energy barriers for the reactions on these oxide phases. These findings in this work highlight the versatility of catalysts and their evolution to form different active phases, both topological and chemically, in response to reaction conditions exposing a new paradigm in the catalyst structure during operation.

Chen, Hao (ORCID:0000000337598352)↗

Analytical model of low and high ablation regimes in carbon arcs

Graphite ablation by an electric arc or a laser/solar flux is widely used for the synthesis of carbon nanomaterials. Previously, it was observed in multiple arc experiments that the ablation rate is a strong nonlinear function of the arc current and it drastically increases at some threshold current. As such, we developed an analytical model explaining this transition in the rate of ablation by an electric arc or a laser/solar flux. The model not only explains the observations but can also accurately predict the experimentally observed ablation rates. The model takes into account redeposition of carbon back to the ablated surface, which is the key process responsible for the observed effects.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Using root and soil traits to forecast woody encroachment dynamics in mesic grassland

Grasslands are a widespread and globally important biome providing key ecosystem services including C storage and regulation of the water cycle. Grasslands face multiple threats, including changes in drought intensity and woody encroachment - a process that results in increased woody plant abundance corresponding with decreased herbaceous plant abundance. The combination of reduced soil moisture and shifts in plant dominance from herbaceous to woody are likely to alter C pools in the soil profile. We currently do not have the capacity to predict either the magnitude or rates of change in these C pools. In order to predict changes in grassland vegetation structure and the associated impacts on C cycling requires greater understanding of changes in soil C pools at multiple soil depths, and the responses of these pools to changes in precipitation. To support and perform this parameterization of Land Surface Models, we performed detailed investigations of root (anatomical and physiological) and soil traits (microbial function) at varying soil depths, to capture the belowground impacts of changing dominant plant growth forms (grasses to shrubs) and the impacts of frequent drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improved Modeling of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Disposal Room Porosity

Disposal rooms at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) contain waste and gas, and their porosity evolves over time. This report presents several improvements to the disposal room porosity model and presents new porosity predictions for use in future WIPP Performance Assessment activities. The improvements pertain to three sub-models: the geomechanical model, the waste compaction model, and the gas pressurization model. The impacts of each major improvement were quantified and the new porosity predictions were shown to be both mesh and domain size converged. Also, sensitivity studies on the disposal room horizon, clay seam friction coefficients, and homogenized waste representation were performed to support assumptions in the disposal room porosity model. To compare the legacy and new porosity predictions, the simulation results were plotted as a response surface, where gas pressure and time are inputs and porosity is the output. The new porosity response surface is insensitive to pressures beneath lithostatic pressure and highly sensitive to pressures above lithostatic pressure. The legacy porosity response surface, on the other hand, has moderate porosity gradients over all pressures. The new porosity response surface has a stronger scientific foundation than the legacy surface and may now be used for Compliance Decision Analyses.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

UQ Toolkit v 2.0

The Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) Toolkit is a software library for the characterizaton and propagation of uncertainties in computational models. For the characterization of uncertainties, Bayesian inference tools are provided to infer uncertain model parameters, as well as Bayesian compressive sensing methods for discovering sparse representations of high-dimensional input-output response surfaces, and also Karhunen-Loève expansions for representing stochastic processes. Uncertain parameters are treated as random variables and represented with Polynomial Chaos expansions (PCEs). The library implements several spectral basis function types (e.g. Hermite basis functions in terms of Gaussian random variables or Legendre basis functions in terms of uniform random variables) that can be used to represent random variables with PCEs. For propagation of uncertainty, tools are provided to propagate PCEs that describe the input uncertainty through the computational model using either intrusive methods (Galerkin projection of equations onto basis functions) or non-intrusive methods (perform deterministic operation at sampled values of the random values and project the obtained results onto basis functions).

Safta, Cosmin↗

CMIP6-based Multi-model Streamflow Projections over the Conterminous US

This dataset presents an ensemble of streamflow projections based on the hydroclimate projections dataset supporting the SECURE Water Act Section 9505 Assessment for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). The six-member General Climate Model (GCM) ensemble from the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) downscaled using statistical (i.e., DBCCA) and dynamical (i.e., RegCM) and bias-corrected using two meteorological reference observations (Daymet & Livneh) are driven through two calibrated hydrologic models (VIC & PRMS) to simulate projected future hydrologic responses. This leads to the production of an ensemble of hydroclimate projections, including total runoff (surface runoff and baseflow) for 1980–2019 baseline and 2020–2059 near-term future periods under multiple emission scenarios at 1/24° (~4 km) spatial resolution across the CONUS. The total runoff projections are routed through the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID) routing model to produce an ensemble of streamflow projections for both periods across 2.7 million NHDPlusV2 stream reaches in the CONUS.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

An efficient method to identify uncertainties of WRF-Solar variables in forecasting solar irradiance using a tangent linear sensitivity analysis

Uncertainty in predicting solar energy resources introduces major challenges in power system management and necessitates the development of reliable probabilistic solar forecasts. As the first part of the development of probabilistic forecasts based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar), this study presents a tangent linear approach to identify input variables responsible for the largest uncertainties in predicting surface solar irradiance and clouds. A tangent linear analysis is capable of efficiently investigating sensitivities of output variables with respect to various input variables of WRF-Solar because this approach avoids the computational burden of perturbing the initial conditions of individual input variables. We develop tangent linear models (TLMs) for six WRF-Solar physics packages that control the formation and dissipation of clouds and solar radiation, and we evaluate the validity of TLMs using a linearity test. The tangent linear sensitivity analysis is conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations to consider realistic input conditions. A simple method is used to quantify the impact of the uncertainty of input variables on the output variables from the TLMs. The results demonstrate that uncertainties in the output variables that are the focus of this study—including global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance, cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes—are highly sensitive to uncertainties in 14 input variables. This study indicates that the tangent linear method can identify key variables of physics modules in WRF-Solar that can be stochastically perturbed to generate ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The changing nature of hydroclimatic risks across South Africa

We present results from large ensembles of projected twenty-first century changes in seasonal precipitation and near-surface air temperature for the nation of South Africa. These ensembles are a result of combining Monte Carlo projections from a human-Earth system model of intermediate complexity with pattern-scaled responses from climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). These future ensemble scenarios consider a range of global actions to abate emissions through the twenty-first century. We evaluate distributions of surface-air temperature and precipitation change over three sub-national regions: western, central, and eastern South Africa. In all regions, we find that without any emissions or climate targets in place, there is a greater than 50% likelihood that mid-century temperatures will increase threefold over the current climate’s two-standard deviation range of variability. However, scenarios that consider more aggressive climate targets all but eliminate the risk of these salient temperature increases. A preponderance of risk toward decreased precipitation (3 to 4 times higher than increased) exists for western and central South Africa. Strong climate targets abate evolving regional hydroclimatic risks. Under a target to limit global climate warming to 1.5 °C by 2100, the risk of precipitation changes within South Africa toward the end of this century (2065–2074) is commensurate to the risk during the 2030s without any global climate target. Thus, these regional hydroclimate risks over South Africa could be delayed by 30 years and, in doing so, provide invaluable lead-time for national efforts to prepare, fortify, and/or adapt.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗