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Broadband Characterization and Circuit Model Development of Transmission-Scale Transformers

This report describes broadband measurements of transmission-scale transformers typical in the electric power grid. This work was performed as part of the EMP Resilient Grid LDRD project at Sandia National Laboratories to generate circuit models that can be used for high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) coupling simulations and response predictions. The objective of the work was to obtain characterization data of substation yard equipment across a frequency range relevant to HEMP. Vector network analyzer measurements up to 100 MHz were performed on two power transformers at ABB-Hitachi and a single ITEC potential transformer. Custom cable breakouts were designed to interface with the transformer terminals and provide ground connections to the chassis at the base of the transformer bushings. The three-phase terminals of the power transformers were measured as a common mode impedance using a parallel resistive splitter, and the single-phase terminals of the potential transformer were measured directly. A vector fitting algorithm was used to empirically fit circuit models to the resulting two-port networks and input impedances of the measured objects. Simplified circuit representations of the input impedances were also generated to assess the degree of precision needed for high-altitude electromagnetic pulse response predictions, which were performed in Sandia's XYCE circuit simulator platform. HEMP coupling simulations using the transformer models showed significant reduction in the voltage peak and broadening in the pulse width seen at the power transformer compared to the traveling wave voltage. This indicated the importance of the load condition when defining the coupled insult in an electric power substation. Simplified circuit models showed a similar voltage at the transformer with a smoothed waveform. The presence of potential transformers in the simulation did not significantly change the simulated voltage at the power transformer. Single-port input impedance models were also developed to define load conditions when transfer characteristics were not necessary.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The Impact of Cultural Values and Organizational Processes on Nuclear Security Operations

Human performance is a pivotal factor in the design, testing, maintenance, and operation of security systems. The effectiveness of these systems relies not only on the capabilities, limitations, motives, and attitudes of the individuals involved, but also on the quality of training, instructional content, and evaluation methods provided. To uphold security standards, seamless integration between technologies and operators necessitates reliable human input. In security operations, human errors, often attributed to blame, sanctions, low motivation, individual accountability, or complacency, are primary causes of system failures. Complacency, characterized by a false sense of security, reflects a lack of awareness of potential threats and is a significant contributing factor to lapses in security. Security incidents arise from various factors, many extend beyond individual control, highlighting the need for a holistic approach to human performance that integrates organizational processes and team collaboration. Historically, errors have been attributed to individual moral or cognitive failures. However, insights from Operational Experiences (OEs) suggest that organizational processes weakness and deficiencies in nuclear cultural values contribute more significantly to security failures than individual mistakes. This paper consolidates lessons learned from diverse international nuclear security cultures and aims to highlight the importance of security culture in shaping global perspectives on nuclear security. It underscores the role of cultural values in shaping nuclear security practices and enhancing the resilience of security systems in the nuclear sector.

Zineddin, Dr. Z. [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000848740725)↗

Blockchain based Communication Architectures with Applications to Private Security Networks

Existing communication protocols in high consequence security networks are highly centralized. While this naively makes the controls easier to physically secure, external actors require fewer resources to disrupt the system because there are fewer points in the system can be destroyed or interrupted without the entire system failing. We present a solution to this problem using a proof-of-work-based blockchain implementation built on MultiChain. We construct a test-bed network containing two types of data input: visual imagers and microwave sensor information. These data types are ubiquitous in perimeter intrusion detection security systems and allow a realistic representation of a real-world network architecture. The cameras in this system use an object detection algorithm to nd important targets in the scene. The raw data from the camera and the outputs from the detection algorithm are then placed in a transaction on the distributed ledger. Similarly, microwave data is used to detect relevant events and are placed in a transaction. These transactions are then bundled into blocks and broadcast to the rest of the network using the Bitcoin-based MultiChain protocol. We develop five tests to examine the security metrics of our network. We performed the five security metric test using different sized networks from 7 to 39 nodes to determine how the metrics scale with respect to size. We nd that when compared to a centralized architecture our implementation provides a resiliency increase that is expected from a blockchain-based protocol without slowing the system so much that a human operator would notice. Furthermore, our approach is able to detect tampering in real time. Based on these results, we theorize that security networks in general could use a blockchain-based approach in a meaningful way.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Emerging Energy Market Analysis Initiative, Methodological Framework

Planning and operations of the electric power sector are undergoing radical changes. Climate change mitigation efforts have forced rapid changes to the technology mix. Technologies like wind and solar have experienced rapid growth, while investment in fossil sources has peaked or is declining. These foundational changes are forcing changes to energy systems. Demand-side adoption of electrified technologies, including electric vehicles, is changing load profiles and opening up new avenues for consumer participation in the power systems. The implications of an evolving power system pertain to more than environmental and technical dimensions. Changes to the generation mix and its consequent upstream and downstream impacts such as fuel production have significant and highly concentrated consequences on economies and employment. Shifts towards distributed (or decentralized) generating assets offer the potential to reshape economic and employment opportunities associated with the energy sector across space and socioeconomic groups. The Emerging Energy Market Analysis (EMA) initiative aims to identify sustainable, regionally acceptable, and high-value energy solutions that are secure and equitable. Unlike short-term, least-cost choices that can narrowly account for traditional options, EMA’s focus on emerging energy markets recognizes that new or adapted practices and technologies can alter the frontier of solutions and advance a community’s social, economic, and natural pathways. Such change requires a more comprehensive analysis of societal input, resources, capabilities, and infrastructure. These considerations lay the foundation for community decision-making models that are responsive to community values as well as the history and drivers. The result is a community-based decision and engagement model that will be valuable to decisionmakers and developers of advanced and emerging energy solutions, seeking a social license to operate prior to project development.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Development of a 95-Year Solar Dataset for Resource Adequacy Studies

Long-term high-resolution solar data provides enhanced understanding of variability of solar generation and enhances our ability to develop strategies for a resilient and reliable electric grid under high deployment of solar energy. Therefore, it is important to develop long-term synthetic datasets that can provide multiple occurrences of various severe weather scenarios that are expected to test the limits of resource adequacy under scenarios contain various energy generation sources. Examples of such scenarios could be long periods of high temperatures when demand for electricity is high or periods where high winds could lead to a shut-down of transmission lines for long periods of time to ensure fire safety. NREL has developed the first version of such a dataset covering a 95-year period covering 2006-2100 at a 4km hourly resolution. This dataset contains all variables necessary to calculate solar generation. During development of this dataset, we focused on creating unbiased, high-resolution solar irradiance through statistical downscaling methods, using Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) as input. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) containing over 25 years of observations was used to calibrate the statistical downscaling models. This presentation will outline the primary steps in developing this dataset, including (1) regridding RCM data to a common grid at 20-km resolution, (2) correcting RCM biases with NSRDB, (3) applying temporal and spatial downscaling methods to generate high-resolution (4-km, hourly) solar and ancillary data. Additionally, we will present an evaluation of the downscaled data against the NSRDB across various zones in the CONUS. Lastly, we will present a user guide for accessing the datasets.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Linking resource availability to pantropical forest canopy resistance and resilience to cyclone disturbance

Statement of purpose: Tropical cyclones are intensifying and occurring at higher latitudes in recent decades, but the mechanisms underpinning the resistance (ability to withstand disturbance-induced change) and resilience (pace of return to pre-disturbance reference values) of tropical forests to cyclones remains largely unexplored at the pantropical scale. We conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the role of soil resource availability (i.e., total soil phosphorus concentration) in mediating site-level forest canopy resistance and resilience to cyclones pan-tropically. We evaluated cyclone-induced and post-cyclone litterfall mass (g/m2/day), phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) fluxes (mg/m2/day), as well as concentrations (mg/g) across 73 case studies in Australia, Guadeloupe, Hawaii, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Taiwan. The dataset zip file includes three data and two metadata files: - The compiled Litterfall Mass Flux data from tropical forests across the globe prior to and after varying tropical cyclone disturbances are provided in Litterfall_Mass.csv. This data file also includes site location, geographical characteristics, elevation, soil phosphorus concentration, geology, and several variables related to each tropical cyclone disturbance. - The compiled Litterfall Nitrogen and Phosphorus Flux data from tropical forests across the globe prior to and after varying tropical cyclone disturbances are provided in Litterfall_Nutrients.csv. This data file also includes site location, geographical characteristics, elevation, soil phosphorus concentration, geology, and several variables related to each tropical cyclone disturbance. - Tropical cyclone track data compiled from HURDAT2 and IBTrACS databases and used as input in the HURRECON model (https://github.com/hurrecon-model/HurreconR) to generate wind data is provided in hurdat2-1851-2019-052520.txt. - The metadata file (Metadata_Meta-analysis_Litterfall-Mass.pdf) has the complete information on each variable included in the Litterfall_Mass.csv dataset, the data sources, and data processing information. - The metadata file (Metadata_Meta-analysis_Litterfall-Nutrients.pdf) has the complete information on each variable included in the Litterfall_Nutrients.csv dataset, the data sources, and data processing information.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Jet Fuel Production at the Pittsburgh Airport: GTL via Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis

The Pittsburgh International Airport (PIT)—with the Allegheny County Airport Authority (which manages PIT)—has established itself as a leader in resiliency by becoming the first major United States (U.S.) airport to have a self-sustaining microgrid, providing electricity, heating, and cooling for airport operations. The microgrid is powered by natural gas and solar power produced on the airport property and was completed in Summer 2021. This study examines the feasibility of producing jet fuel at the airport to provide a secure supply of aviation fuel, furthering PIT’s ability to weather supply disruptions and operate self-sufficiently. Gas-to-liquids (GTL) is a commercially available technology that converts natural gas to liquid hydrocarbons, including synthetic jet fuel. A GTL facility at PIT could convert natural gas from onsite wells to jet fuel, effectively doubling the onsite fuel stores in the event of a supply disruption. Moreover, GTL provides a pathway to renewable jet fuel production and reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the aviation sector, particularly if renewable natural gas (RNG) is used as a feedstock or other renewable energy sources are used for energy inputs. This study has found that it would be technically feasible to construct and operate a GTL facility on PIT’s property. The approximately 6,000-barrel per day (BPD) facility evaluated would produce nearly 70 million (MM) gallons (gal) of synthetic jet fuel per year, which could supplant nearly all (85 percent) current jet fuel consumption at PIT. Given the current blend limitation of 50 percent Fischer-Tropsch fuels by volume, the plant would have excess production capacity available for the United States Air Force (USAF) Pittsburgh Air Reserve Station and the USAF 171st Air Refueling Wing co-located at the airport.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Complementary effects of supplemental feeding and straw retention on winter biodiversity in rice agroecosystems

Rice paddies are both major food-production systems and critical winter habitats for wildlife. In the Civilian Control Zone (CCZ) adjoining the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), post-harvest interventions such as supplementary grain feeding and straw retention are promoted through agronomic and conservation incentives. These measures differ in ecological scope: feeding provides direct, concentrated energetic subsidies, whereas straw management alters habitat structure and resource bases. We clarified whether these pathways function in complementary or substitutive ways to support resilient, long-term conservation strategies in rice agroecosystems. Using camera traps, we evaluated the effects of three straw treatments (chopped-straw, whole-straw, straw-removed) and supplemental feeding on winter bird and mammal communities across 48 rice fields in the CCZ. Our results demonstrate that feeding produced strong, localized increases in bird abundance and richness, driven mainly by cranes (Grus japonensis and Antigone vipio) and geese (Anser spp.), with limited effects on Shannon diversity or functional structure. Among non-feeding fields, chopped-straw paddies consistently supported higher richness and Shannon diversity than whole-straw or straw-removed fields, while centroid shifts in taxonomic and functional space were modest. Mammal abundance and diversity were largely insensitive to feeding or straw regimes, varying instead with road and forest distance and regional context. Supplemental feeding and straw retention are therefore not interchangeable tools: feeding concentrates a few avian guilds, whereas chopped-straw retention enhances baseline diversity across farmland. Collectively, our findings suggest integrating low-input straw retention with targeted feeding offers a more robust pathway for sustaining winter biodiversity in rice agroecosystems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Historical Aerospace Software Errors Categorized to Influence Fault Tolerance

Since the first use of computers in space and aircraft, software errors have occurred. These errors can manifest as loss-of-life or less catastrophically. As the demand for automation increases, software in mission or safety-critical systems should be designed to be tolerant to the most likely software faults. This paper categorizes a set of 55 historic aerospace software error incidents from 1962 to 2023 to determine trends of how and where automation is most likely to fail, behaving unexpectedly. A distinction between software producing unexpected (erroneous) output versus no output (failsilent) is introduced. Of the historical incidents analyzed, 85% were from software producing wrong output rather than simply stopping. Rebooting was found to be ineffective to clear erroneous behavior, and not reliable to recover from silent failures. Error origin was within the code/logic itself in 58% of cases, 16% from configurable data, 15% from unexpected sensor input, and 11% from command/operator input. A substantial forty percent (40%) of unexpected software behavior was indicated by the absence of code, arising from unanticipated situations and missing requirements, and 16% of incidents were subjectively deemed “unknown-unknowns”. No incidents were found to be the result of programming language, compiler, tool, or operating system; and only sixteen percent (16%) of all incidents were considered errors traditional computer science/programming in nature. These findings indicate that for fault tolerance, erroneous automation behavior must be a primary consideration especially at critical moments, and reboot recoverability may not be viable. Special care should be taken to validate configurable data and commands prior to use. “Test-like-you-fly”, including hardware-in-the-loop combined with robust off-nominal testing should be used to uncover missing logic arising from unanticipated situations not covered by requirements alone. This study uniquely focuses on manifestations of unexpected flight software behavior, independent of ultimate root cause. We characterize software error behavior and origin to improve software design, test, and operations for resilience to the most common manifestations, and provide a rich dataset for further study.

Aerospace↗

LA100 Equity Strategies. Chapter 7: Housing Weatherization and Resilience

The LA100 Equity Strategies project integrates community guidance with robust research, modeling, and analysis to identify strategy options that can increase equitable outcomes in Los Angeles' clean energy transition. This chapter focuses on housing weatherization and access to cooling as means to achieve more equitable resilience to heat waves during unplanned power outages. Specifically, NREL used weather, housing, and socioeconomic data to characterize LA's residential building stock. We?developed a residential building stock model to simulate the energy use of 50,000 dwellings representing the diversity of housing types, appliances, climate zones, and household incomes across Los Angeles. We then simulated and evaluated the impacts of 10 building envelope and cooling upgrades on indoor temperature - a main cause of heat-induced health risks-over a 4-day power outage during a heat wave. We examined occupant exposure to extreme heat and how heat exposure changes with each upgrade across income, tenure (renter/owner status), building type, and disadvantaged community (DAC) status. We also examined upgrade costs and utility bills. Based on the results of our analysis and community guidance, we identified building envelope upgrades and cooling strategies that could save lives and maintain safe home temperatures for LA's low-income households in the event of a planned or unplanned power outage during a summer heat wave. Research was guided by input from the community engagement process, and associated equity strategies are presented in alignment with that guidance.

building envelope↗

Hydraulic redistribution supplies a major water subsidy and improves water status of understory species in a longleaf pine ecosystem

Hydraulic redistribution (HR) is a common phenomenon in water-limited ecosystems; however, it remains unclear how the volume of water transported via HR compares to other components of the hydrologic budget and how HR influences water availability for understory plant communities. In this study, we investigate the absolute and relative magnitude of HR on a forest water budget and identify potential impacts of this water subsidy to understory plant communities. We scaled tree-level estimates of transpiration and HR of three common tree species naturally occurring in a longleaf pine woodland with plot-level measurements of basal area to determine their magnitude at the stand scale. We trenched plots containing understory vegetation but devoid of mature trees and their connected roots to exclude HR subsidies to understory plant species. We analysed soil water isotopes and assessed leaf water potential (Ψ L ) in trenched and control plots to determine if HR results in mixing of water among soil strata and improves understory plant moisture status. Water inputs from HR were equivalent to >30% of total rainfall for the site during the observation period and ~40% of total tree water uptake, depending on species. A stable isotope mixing model confirmed that soil water within HR-exposed plots was more similar to groundwater, whereas soil water within trenched plots was more similar to precipitation. Exclusion of HR via trenching decreased soil moisture and pre-dawn Ψ L for all understory species. These three lines of evidence suggest that HR from overstory trees redistributes a sizable portion of water from deeper to shallower soil profiles and that this water subsidy enhances understory plant water status.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Residential Energy Efficiency Design Guide for Tribal Lands

Homeowners and renters on tribal lands have historically faced a disproportionate energy burden compared to the United States as a whole. The Indian Health Service (IHS), which serves these communities, strives to meet aggressive energy performance goals when constructing their residential housing. Challenges common in rural locations can hinder progress toward those goals, such as availability of materials, access to specialized labor, and budget constraints. This guide is for architects and builders who aim to incorporate energy efficiency (EE) into their residential designs. This report presents commercially viable energy efficiency packages for a variety of locations and home inputs to help guide home builders in choosing improvements for energy performance. The intention is to provide a diverse set of packages that can be used during the design phase to achieve energy savings compared to a code minimum building design. By presenting a set of diverse options with similar expected energy savings and life-cycle costs, final decisions can be left up to the building designers who can better determine the appropriate package given local costs, materials, and labor availability. Although this guide was developed for IHS projects, it can be used to help designers and construction professionals better make cost-effective choices when a detailed, project-specific building energy analysis is not possible.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Generalized Software Architecture Applied to the Continuous Lunar Water Separation Process and the Lunar Greenhouse Amplifier

This innovation provides the user with autonomous on-screen monitoring, embedded computations, and tabulated output for two new processes. The software was originally written for the Continuous Lunar Water Separation Process (CLWSP), but was found to be general enough to be applicable to the Lunar Greenhouse Amplifier (LGA) as well, with minor alterations. The resultant program should have general applicability to many laboratory processes (see figure). The objective for these programs was to create a software application that would provide both autonomous monitoring and data storage, along with manual manipulation. The software also allows operators the ability to input experimental changes and comments in real time without modifying the code itself. Common process elements, such as thermocouples, pressure transducers, and relative humidity sensors, are easily incorporated into the program in various configurations, along with specialized devices such as photodiode sensors. The goal of the CLWSP research project is to design, build, and test a new method to continuously separate, capture, and quantify water from a gas stream. The application is any In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) process that desires to extract or produce water from lunar or planetary regolith. The present work is aimed at circumventing current problems and ultimately producing a system capable of continuous operation at moderate temperatures that can be scaled over a large capacity range depending on the ISRU process. The goal of the LGA research project is to design, build, and test a new type of greenhouse that could be used on the moon or Mars. The LGA uses super greenhouse gases (SGGs) to absorb long-wavelength radiation, thus creating a highly efficient greenhouse at a future lunar or Mars outpost. Silica-based glass, although highly efficient at trapping heat, is heavy, fragile, and not suitable for space greenhouse applications. Plastics are much lighter and resilient, but are not efficient for absorbing longwavelength infrared radiation and therefore will lose more heat to the environment compared to glass. The LGA unit uses a transparent polymer antechamber that surrounds part of the greenhouse and encases the SGGs, thereby minimizing infrared losses through the plastic windows. With ambient temperatures at the lunar poles at 50 C, the LGA should provide a substantial enhancement to currently conceived lunar greenhouses. Positive results obtained from this project could lead to a future large-scale system capable of running autonomously on the Moon, Mars, and beyond. The software for both applications needs to run the entire units and all subprocesses; however, throughout testing, many variables and parameters need to be changed as more is learned about the system operation. The software provides the versatility to permit the software operation to change as the user requirements evolve.

Perusich, Stephen↗

A comparative study on deep learning models for condition monitoring of advanced reactor piping systems

Advanced nuclear reactors offer innovative applications due to their portability, reliability, resiliency, and high capacity factors. To operate them on a wider scale, reducing maintenance life-cycle costs while ensuring their integrity is essential. Autonomous operations in advanced nuclear reactors using augmented Digital Twin (DT) technology can serve as a cost-effective solution by increasing awareness about the system’s health. A key component of nuclear DT frameworks is the condition monitoring of safety systems, such as piping-equipment systems, which involves acquiring and monitoring the plant’s sensor data. Here, this research proposes a condition monitoring methodology utilizing deep learning algorithms, such as multilayer perceptions (MLP) and convolutional neural networks (CNNs), to detect degradation and its severity in nuclear piping-equipment systems. Sensor signals are processed to obtain the power spectral density and the Short-Time Fourier transform, and feature extraction methodologies are proposed to develop degradation-sensitive data repositories. The performance of MLP, one-dimensional (1D) CNN, and 2D CNN within the proposed condition monitoring framework is compared using a finite element model of a 3D piping system subjected to seismic loads as the application case study. Various approaches, such as dropout, k-Fold validation, regularization, and early stopping of training the network, are investigated to avoid overfitting the models to the input sensor data. The predictive capability and computational capacity of the deep learning algorithms are also compared to detect degradation in the Z-pipe system of the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBRII). The Z-pipe system is subjected to harmonic excitations that represent normal operating loads, such as pump-induced vibrations. The findings of the study indicate that the proposed artificial intelligence (AI)-driven condition monitoring framework demonstrates superior prediction accuracies with a 2D CNN, whereas the MLP exhibits higher computational efficiency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Future Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves of Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest United States From Convection‐Permitting Modeling

Abstract During the last four decades, global warming has statistically significant intensified extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States (defined here as the region covering Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky), leading to increased risks to human life, property, and infrastructure. To enable climate change adaptation and resilience across various economic and social sectors in this region, updated information about future climate changes, specifically at finer spatial scales, is essential. Leveraging a new 150‐year dynamical downscaling data set at convection‐permitting resolution, this study introduces a framework to construct the projected future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves of heavy precipitation, which are prominent tools for infrastructure design and water resources management. This framework generates IDF curves at both sub‐daily and multi‐day duration utilizing hourly in situ observations as well as quantile‐based statistical techniques in bias‐correction and return levels selection. The assumption of non‐stationarity in the distribution parameter fitting process is also implemented in this workflow. Compared to historical IDF curves for 1980–2022, future projected IDF curves for 2058–2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15% and 25%, respectively, across 74 stations, considering both annual and seasonal timescales. Future projections suggest that extreme precipitation events may become more severe across six investigated return periods, with longer return periods showing a greater increase. The frequency of future extreme precipitation events in the Midwest region is also projected to double. Furthermore, current results reveal spatial heterogeneity of future trends across stations owing to the high‐resolution input data set. Plain Language Summary This study investigates the evolving nature of extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States under a changing climate. By leveraging a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling data set, we construct projected intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves for future extreme rainfall events. These curves serve as vital tools for infrastructure planning and water resource management. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the region. Future projected IDF curves for the late century indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15%–25% compared to historical values. Moreover, the frequency of such events is expected to double. Spatial heterogeneity in future trends is observed across different stations within the Midwest, highlighting the importance of high‐resolution modeling in capturing localized climate variability. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the increasing risks associated with extreme precipitation events in the region. Key Points This study introduces a workflow to construct future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves over the Midwest United States using a new convection‐permitting modeling data set The current IDF construction workflow reproduces well the historical observed IDF 30 curves in summer months with median relative errors of 2.4% among 74 stations and 6 investigated durations The projected IDF curves show diverse future trends of extreme precipitation across stations, with intensity increases of approximately 15% and 25% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, and a doubling of frequency on average

Nguyen, Trung↗

Machine Learning-Assisted High-Temperature Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage Optimization: Numerical Modeling and Machine Learning Input and Output Files

This data set includes the numerical modeling input files and output files used to synthesize data, and the reduced-order machine learning models trained from the synthesized data for reservoir thermal energy storage site identification. In this study, a machine-learning-assisted computational framework is presented to identify High-Temperature Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage (HT-RTES) site with optimal performance metrics by combining physics-based simulation with stochastic hydrogeologic formation and thermal energy storage operation parameters, artificial neural network regression of the simulation data, and genetic algorithm-enabled multi-objective optimization. A doublet well configuration with a layered (aquitard-aquifer-aquitard) generic reservoir is simulated for cases of continuous operation and seasonal-cycle operation scenarios. Neural network-based surrogate models are developed for the two scenarios and applied to generate the Pareto fronts of the HT-RTES performance for four potential HT-RTES sites. The developed Pareto optimal solutions indicate the performance of HT-RTES is operation-scenario (i.e., fluid cycle) and reservoir-site dependent, and the performance metrics have competing effects for a given site and a given fluid cycle. The developed neural network models can be applied to identify suitable sites for HT-RTES, and the proposed framework sheds light on the design of resilient HT-RTES systems. All the simulations and the neural network model were done by Idaho National Laboratory. A detailed description of the work was reported in publication linked below.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Drought shrinks terrestrial upland resilience to climate change

Abstract Aim Drought has been shown to alter terrestrial ecosystem carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics, and thus feedback to future climate. However, drought‐induced changes in terrestrial upland C and N pools and the drought response of soil carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes are yet to be quantified. Location Global upland ecosystems. Time period 2000–2018. Major taxa studied Terrestrial C and N fluxes. Methods A meta‐analysis was conducted that compiled 1,344 measurements from 128 manipulative studies worldwide to obtain a general picture of terrestrial C and N cycling responses to soil drought stress and identify the primary driving factors. Results We showed that drought significantly decreased plant C pools, with stronger negative responses of aboveground than belowground C components. Drought significantly decreased soil respiration ( R S ) and N 2 O fluxes by 19% and 29%, respectively. There were non‐significant changes in soil organic C and N pools in response to drought; in contrast to a considerable decrease in soil dissolved organic C (−22%), there was a robust increase in soil nitrate‐N (26%) following short‐term drought impact. By relating net ecosystem productivity (NEP) to the difference between net primary production (NPP) and soil heterotrophic respiration ( R H ), drought was found to drive a decrease up to −37% in NEP, being equivalent to a reduction in terrestrial net C uptake of 2.91 t C/ha. Main conclusions Our study provides insights into soil release of CO 2 and N 2 O with a linkage to the changes in terrestrial C and N pools in response to drought across upland biomes. Our findings highlight that, despite the lowered soil C release rate, the capacity of upland biomes as a C sink to slow climate change would still be weakened due to a robust decline of plant‐derived C input to soil in a future drier climate.

Zheng, Yajing↗

Behind the Meter Storage for Electric Vehicle Charging, Electrochemical and Thermal Energy Storage, and Solar Photovoltaic

In response to the potentially large and irregular demand from EVs, along with changing load profiles from buildings with on-site generation, utilities are evaluating multiple options for managing dynamic loads, including time-of-use pricing, demand charges, battery storage, and curtailment of variable generation. Buildings, as well as commercial, public, and workplace EV charging operations, can use a combination of electrochemical battery storage and thermal energy storage coupled with on-site generation to manage energy costs as well as provide resiliency and reliability for EV charging and building energy loads. We are completing a behind the meter storage analysis that focuses on determining the optimal system designs and energy flows for thermal and electrochemical behind the meter storage with on-site solar photovoltaic (PV) generation enabling electric vehicle charging in various climates, building types, and utility rate structures. In completing this analysis, we have developed a tool that combines existing battery models via the System Advisor Model (SAM) and building modeling software via EnergyPlus into a single interface. This tool allows us to simulate a building with a detailed battery model to properly size the battery, thermal energy storage, and solar PV systems to maximize profit for the system owner. This also allows us to assess how the battery degrades under various supervisory control dispatch algorithms to control charging/discharging; we can also see how thermal energy storage is created and used to complement the battery to reduce thermal loads in the building. With this project, we can analyze new batteries that are designed specifically for energy storage, rather than designed to be extremely energy dense for electric vehicle applications, using battery lifetime models from other national labs and the existing SAM battery model, which has detailed lifetime and degradation parameters. We can also assess novel thermal storage technologies by integrating them into the whole building energy simulation program EnergyPlus. Because the model calls both SAM and EnergyPlus, required inputs need to be compatible for both models. These inputs include, on a high-level, the following: weather files, building and electric vehicle load profiles, electricity rate tariff information, and system cost information for the stationary battery, solar PV, and thermal storage system. The various buildings we are studying for this analysis are retail big-box grocery store, commercial office building, fleet vehicle depot and operations facility, multi-family residential, and electric vehicle charging station. For these different applications, the battery and thermal storage will be dispatched differently, and the various technologies are sized differently to optimize cost.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗