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FORCE Update 2024

The Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite is the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Program flagship tool suite for technoeconomic IES analysis of IES. This tool suite is useful for analysis designed to evaluate and improve the technoeconomics of energy production systems, particularly for systems including nuclear technology. In this report, we document the development activity for the FORCE tool suite to extend its capabilities as performed during fiscal year 2024. In addition to reliability and accessibility, capability is one of the three standards guiding the development of the FORCE tool suite and the software codes that are its constituent parts. Extending the capabilities of the FORCE tool suite allows analysis both within the IES program as well as industry, university, and laboratory partners to perform analysis with more accuracy, insight, and impactful narrative. Four areas of capability development were the focus of activity this year: economic parameter uncertainty quantification, multiresolution analysis, components-to-optimization workflow automation, and statespace construction workflows for real-time optimal control. In economic parameter uncertainty quantification, the ability of HERON to capture risk due to scenarios (weather and energy demand uncertainty) was expanded to also include uncertainties in financial parameters such as capital cost or operation and maintenance costs. By including these sources of uncertainty, which are sometimes very large compared with scenario uncertainty, HERON is better able to capture the risk posed by investment in various IES technology. Because of this, analysts can also consider the reduction in risks that can be realized by choice of some technologies. In multiresolution analysis, development activity extended on work completed previously. In fiscal year 2023, methods for decomposing time series signals, such as demand, solar and wind availability, and price profiles, were analyzed and down-selected to those most effective at splitting signals into different resolutions. These resolutions allow considering the influence of different energy demand and supply behaviors across different time scales. For example, energy demand might be divided into seasonal, weekly, and hourly profiles. In fiscal year 2024, this preliminary work was extended and implemented within the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) risk and uncertainty analysis platform, which is used throughout the FORCE framework. This development of the “multi-resolution time series analysis” (MR-TSA) module in RAVEN allows training synthetic history generators on complex time series. These synthetic history generators can then be used in HERON for generating scenarios that represent possible market and weather scenarios that can be analyzed on different time scales. We envision completing this work in the future, implementing multiresolution dispatch optimization strategies that can make the most beneficial use of these stratified time histories. In components-to-optimization workflow development, workflows for translating user inputs of components into algorithms for algebraic optimization were selected and implemented. Similar algorithms within the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) were separated from the main code base of HERON and gathered with the components-to-optimization workflows in the new Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE) software library. This modularization allows FORCE users to analyze dispatch optimization and energy system duty cycles independently of HERON, which previously was a burdensome task. Additionally, these dispatch optimization algorithms, set up in an independent library, can now be used across all software applications within FORCE, especially including the real-time optimal control software Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA). Allowing FORCE software to share dispatch optimization algorithms within a single library allows for improved software maintenance and reliability. In statespace characterization workflow development, alternative workflows for optimizing dispatch with additional technical accuracy was the focus, particularly to improve the real-time optimization decision making in ORCA. Using algorithms and workflows initially developed for the Feasible Actuator Range Modifier (FARM), workflows for determining the statespace representation of IES were identified and demonstrated. The resulting dispatch optimization required a more robust optimization algorithm than that originally used in HERON (and moved to DOVE), which required adding an alternate workflow to DOVE that can more accurately match the behavior of physical systems using a partial differential equation representation. In conclusion, capability developments in the FORCE tool suite in fiscal year 2024 have improved the ability of the FORCE tool suite to perform

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Two-dimensional nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy with a microfluidic diamond quantum sensor

Quantum sensors based on nitrogen-vacancy centers in diamond have emerged as a promising detection modality for nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy owing to their micrometer-scale detection volume and noninductive-based detection. A remaining challenge is to realize sufficiently high spectral resolution and concentration sensitivity for multidimensional NMR analysis of picoliter sample volumes. Here, we address this challenge by spatially separating the polarization and detection phases of the experiment in a microfluidic platform. We realize a spectral resolution of 0.65 ± 0.05 Hz, an order-of-magnitude improvement over previous diamond NMR studies. We use the platform to perform two-dimensional correlation spectroscopy of liquid analytes within an effective ~40-picoliter detection volume. The use of diamond quantum sensors as in-line microfluidic NMR detectors is a major step toward applications in mass-limited chemical analysis and single-cell biology.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Structural FEM analysis of the strut-to-fuselage joint of a two-seat composite aircraft

An analysis of a strut-to-fuselage joint is realized in order to evaluate the zones with a high probability of failure by means of a safety factor. The whole section is analyzed using the Finite Element Method (FEM) so as to estimate static resistance behavior, therefore it is necessary a numerical mock-up of the section, the mechanical properties of the Carbon-Epoxy (C-Ep) material, and to evaluate the applied loads. Results of the analysis show that the zones with higher probability of failure are found around the wing strut and the fuselage joint, with a safety factor lower than expected in comparison with the average safety factor used on aircrafts built mostly with metals.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Three-dimensional realizations of flood flow in large-scale rivers using the neural fuzzy-based machine-learning algorithms

Machine learning methods have been extensively used to study the dynamics of complex fluid flows. One such algorithm, known as adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), can generate data-driven predictions for flow fields, but has not been applied to natural geophysical flows in large-scale rivers. Herein, we demonstrate the potential of ANFIS to produce three-dimensional (3D) realizations of the instantaneous flood flow field in several large-scale, virtual meandering rivers. The 3D dynamics of flood flow in large-scale rivers were obtained using large-eddy simulation (LES). The LES results, i.e., the 3D velocity components, were employed to train the learnable coefficients of an ANFIS. Further, the trained ANFIS, along with a few time-steps of LES results (precursor data) were then used to produce 3D realizations of flood flow fields in large-scale rivers with geometries other than the one the ANFIS was trained with. We also used the trained ANFIS to generate 3D realizations of river flow at a discharge other than that the ANFIS was trained with. The flow field results obtained from ANFIS were validated using separate LES runs to assess the accuracy of the 3D instantaneous realizations of the machine learning algorithm. An error analysis was conducted to quantify the discrepancies among the ANFIS and LES results for various flood flow predictions in large-scale rivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Battery capacity and recharging needs for electric buses in city transit service

Our paper evaluates the energy consumption and battery performance of city transit electric buses operating on real day-to-day routes and standardized bus drive cycles, based on a developed framework tool that links bus electrification feasibility with real-world vehicle performance, city transit bus service reliability, battery sizing and charging infrastructure. The impacts of battery capacity combined with regular and ultrafast charging over different routes have been analyzed in terms of the ability to maintain city transit bus service reliability like conventional buses. These results show that ultrafast charging via frequent short-time boost charging events, for example at a designated bus stop after completing each circuit of an assigned route, can play a significant role in reducing the battery size and can eliminate the need for longer duration charging events that would cause schedule delays. Furthermore, the analysis presented shows that significant benefits can be realized by employing multiple battery configurations and flexible battery swapping practices in electric buses. These flexible design and use options will allow electric buses to service routes of varying city driving patterns and can therefore enable meaningful reductions to the cost of the vehicle and battery while ensuring service that is as reliable as conventional buses.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

High hole concentration in p-type AlGaN by indium-surfactant-assisted Mg-delta doping

High hole concentration was achieved in Mg-doped Al{sub x}Ga{sub 1−x}N (x ∼ 0.4) by using indium-surfactant-assisted delta doping method. A maximum carrier concentration of 4.75 × 10{sup 18 }cm{sup −3} was obtained, which is three times higher than that of the conventionally delta-doped sample. Sheet resistivity as low as 2.46 × 10{sup 4} Ω/sq was realized, benefiting from the high hole concentration (p). Analysis results show that the Mg incorporation is effectively enhanced, while the compensation ratio and acceptor activation energy (E{sub A}) are significantly reduced by using In surfactant. It was also found that the In surfactant may induce stronger valence-band modulation, contributing to the decrease of E{sub A} and the increase of p.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Low-Cost CdTe/Silicon Tandem Solar Cells

Achieving higher photovoltaic efficiency in single-junction devices is becoming increasingly difficult, but tandem modules offer the possibility of significant efficiency improvements. By device modeling we show that four-terminal CdTe/Si tandem solar modules offer the prospect of 25%-30% module efficiency, and technoeconomic analysis predicts that these efficiency gains can be realized at costs per Watt that are competitive with CdTe and Si single junction alternatives. The cost per Watt of the modeled tandems is lower than crystalline silicon, but slightly higher than CdTe alone. But, these higher power modules reduce area-related balance of system costs, providing increased value especially in area-constrained applications. This avenue for high-efficiency photovoltaics enables improved performance on a near-term timeframe, as well as a path to further reduced levelized cost of electricity as module and cell processes continue to advance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

19-LW-045 Full Length Final Report. Molecular Mechanisms of Bacterial Pathogenesis: Waging the Arms Race with Superbugs

As the current global pandemic makes abundantly clear, we need a better understanding of infectious disease to safeguard human health, the economy and global security. Modern omics techniques hold the promise of providing a comprehensive understanding of the molecular mechanisms of life, including causes of pathogenesis from infectious disease at the molecular level, but we there is a serious gap in annotation of gene function. For as much as half of the genes and gene products encoded in genomes the molecular and/or cellular function is unknown or only partially understood. Recent innovations in fluorescence microscopy for live cell imaging and genetic engineering make it possible to determine the temporal correlation between molecular events, such as a gene being expressed due to host-pathogen interaction, and cellular events, such as bacterial invasion of immune cells. This is turn allows us to gain new insight as to the molecular and cellular role of individual genes and will enable the discovery and validation of new molecular mechanisms essential for infectious disease. Knowing the molecular mechanisms of disease processes will provide new therapeutic targets or novel countermeasure strategies. We aimed to develop a lattice light sheet fluorescence microscope as a unique resource at LLNL for long time course live cell imaging experiments; to develop the reagents and cell lines needed to monitor molecular events during the course pathogenic bacteria infecting mammalian immune cells; and to demonstrate that we could capture molecular events during an infection. We fully commissioned the LLNL lattice light sheet microscope and conducted initial proof of principle imaging experiments on mammalian immune cells and pathogenic bacteria. It is clear from the experience gained that long time course live cell imaging has tremendous potential to help elucidate molecular mechanisms of host-pathogen interactions and to help annotate gene function, which would establish a basis for new countermeasures. It is also clear that if live cell imaging is to realize its full potential new data processing and analysis tools will need to be developed to facilitate analysis of molecular events within cells; new sample chambers and stages could facilitate studies with a wider range of cell and tissue types; and alternative molecular tagging methods need to be explored to enable more facile engineering of cells labeled with molecular specificity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Phase-locked loops

The basic analysis and design procedures are described for the realization of analog phase-locked loops (APLL), hybrid phase-locked loops (HPLL), discrete phase-locked loops, and digital phase-locked loops (DPLL). Basic configurations are diagrammed, and performance curves are given. A discrete communications model is derived and developed. The use of the APLL as an optimum angle demodulator and the Kalman-Bucy approach to APLL design are discussed. The literature in the area of phase-locked loops is reviewed, and an extensive bibliography is given. Although the design of APLLs is fairly well documented, work on discrete, hybrid, and digital PLLs is scattered, and more will have to be done in the future to pinpoint the formal design of DPLLs.

Gupta, S. C.↗

Evidence that the protocell was also a protoneuron

A blueprint for a protocell was presented in 1960 (Fox) as a consequence of the newly discovered self-ordering of amino acids and the self-organization of the resultant thermal proteins into cellular structures. The biofunctions of the laboratory protocells (proteinoid microspheres) have since been cataloged; they display roots of many phenomena of modern cells, e.g. synthesis of internucleotide and peptide bonds in aqueous media. These results are inconsistent with a popular assumption that DNA/RNA preceded protein in earliest molecular evolution. The necessity for synthetic research on molecules and cells to 'begin at the beginning' is being realized. Ivanov and Fortsch (1986) have described by analysis how the self-ordering mechanism of amino acids into informed thermal proteins was conserved in evolution from the earliest stage as modern (reverse) mechanisms assumed control. Tyagi and Ponnamperuma (1990) have negated assumptions corollary to DNA/RNA. Ponnamperuma has demonstrated the powerful effect of self-ordering of amino acids in polymerization of aminoacyl nucleotides and the irrelevance of mononucleotide residues. Excitable thermal proteins (Vaughan et al, 1987) are neurotrophic and antiaging when added to cultures of real neurons (Hefti et al, 1991) and are memory enhancers in mice (Fox and Flood, 1992). Proteinoid microspheres of dominant hydrophobic constitution form 'gap junctions', sprout axon-like outgrowths, and form dendritic networks spontaneously. In the latest studies, phenylalanine-rich equimolar proteinoid or the leucine analog (Ishima et al 1981), is found to produce electrical signals for several days when lecithin is included in the assembly with the thermal polymer.

Bi, YU↗

Coupled Thermo-Electro-Magneto-Elastic Response of Smart Stiffened Panels

This report documents the procedures developed for incorporating smart laminate and panel analysis capabilities within the HyperSizer aerospace structural sizing software package. HyperSizer analyzes stiffened panels composed of arbitrary composite laminates through stiffener homogenization, or "smearing " techniques. The result is an effective constitutive equation for the stiffened panel that is suitable for use in a full vehicle-scale finite element analysis via MSC/NASTRAN. The existing thermo-elastic capabilities of HyperSizer have herein been extended to include coupled thermo-electro-magneto-elastic analysis capabilities. This represents a significant step toward realization of design tools capable of guiding the development of the next generation of smart aerospace structures. Verification results are presented that compare the developed smart HyperSizer capability with an ABAQUS piezoelectric finite element solution for a facesheet-flange combination. These results show good agreement between HyperSizer and ABAQUS, but highlight a limitation of the HyperSizer formulation in that constant electric field components are assumed.

Bednarcyk, Brett A.↗

Lens Model Accuracy in the Expected LSST Lensed AGN Sample

Strong gravitational lensing of active galactic nuclei (AGN) enables measurements of cosmological parameters through time-delay cosmography (TDC). With data from the upcoming LSST survey, we anticipate using a sample of O(1000) lensed AGN for TDC. To prepare for this dataset and enable this measurement, we construct and analyze a realistic mock sample of 1300 systems drawn from the OM10 (Oguri & Marshall 2010) catalog of simulated lenses with AGN sources at $z<3.1$ in order to test a key aspect of the analysis pipeline, that of the lens modeling. We realize the lenses as power law elliptical mass distributions and simulate 5-year LSST i-band coadd images. From every image, we infer the lens mass model parameters using neural posterior estimation (NPE). Focusing on the key model parameters, $θ_E$ (the Einstein Radius) and $γ_{lens}$ (the projected mass density profile slope), with consistent mass-light ellipticity correlations in test and training data, we recover $θ_E$ with less than 1% bias per lens, 6.5% precision per lens and $γ_{lens}$ with less than 3% bias per lens, 8% precision per lens. We find that lens light subtraction prior to modeling is only useful when applied to data sampled from the training prior. If emulated deconvolution is applied to the data prior to modeling, precision improves across all parameters by a factor of 2. Finally, we combine the inferred lens mass models using Bayesian Hierarchical Inference to recover the global properties of the lens sample with less than 1% bias.

Venkatraman, Padmavathi [Illinois U., Urbana; KIPA↗

The peculiar velocities of rich clusters in the hot and cold dark matter scenarios

We present the results of a study of the peculiar velocities of rich clusters of galaxies. The peculiar motion of rich clusters in various cosmological scenarios is of interest for a number of reasons. Observationally, one can measure the peculiar motion of clusters to greater distances than galaxies because cluster peculiar motions can be determined to greater accuracy. One can also test the slope of distance indicator relations using clusters to see if galaxy properties vary with environment. We have used N-body simulations to measure the amplitude and rms cluster peculiar velocity as a function of bias parameter in the hot and cold dark matter scenarios. In addition to measuring the mean and rms peculiar velocity of clusters in the two models, we determined whether the peculiar velocity vector of a given cluster is well aligned with the gravity vector due to all the particles in the simulation and the gravity vector due to the particles present only in the clusters. We have investigated the peculiar velocities of rich clusters of galaxies in the cold dark matter and hot dark matter galaxy formation scenarios. We have derived peculiar velocities and associated errors for the scenarios using four values of the bias parameter ranging from b = 1 to b = 2.5. The growth of the mean peculiar velocity with scale factor has been determined and compared to that predicted by linear theory. In addition, we have compared the orientation of force and velocity in these simulations to see if a program such as that proposed by Bertschinger and Dekel (1989) for elliptical galaxy peculiar motions can be applied to clusters. The method they describe enables one to recover the density field from large scale redshift distance samples. The method makes it possible to do this when only radial velocities are known by assuming that the velocity field is curl free. Our analysis suggests that this program if applied to clusters is only realizable for models with a low value of the bias parameter, i.e., models in which the peculiar velocities of clusters are large enough that the errors do not render the analysis impracticable.

Rhee, George F.↗

Time-resolved lidar fluorosensor for sea pollution detection

A contemporary time and spectral analysis of oil fluorescence is useful for the detection and the characterization of oil spills on the sea surface. Nevertheless the fluorosensor lidars, which were realized up to now, have only partial capability to perform this double analysis. The main difficulties are the high resolution required (of the order of 1 nanosecond) and the complexity of the detection system for the recording of a two-dimensional matrix of data for each laser pulse. An airborne system whose major specifications were: time range, 30 to 75 ns; time resolution, 1 ns; spectral range, 350 to 700 nm; and spectral resolution, 10 nm was designed and constructed. The designed system of a short pulse ultraviolet laser source and a streak camera based detector are described.

Ferrario, A.↗

Direct digital predistortion technique for the compensation of laser chirp and fiber dispersion in long haul radio over fiber links

Analog Radio-over-Fiber (A-RoF) communication technology constitutes a promising technique for next generation radio access networks thanks to its relatively low bandwidth requirements. Within this context, an efficient predistortion technique is proposed, which can be applied to reduce the impairments of A-RoF systems due to the combined effects of frequency chirp of the laser source and chromatic dispersion of the optical channel. The radio frequency signal is firstly put in digital form through an analog to digital converter, then the predistortion operation is realized, and finally the resulting signal is put again into analog form. A comprehensive analysis on the theoretical basis of the proposed approach is presented, together with the approximations introduced, which makes it practically realizable. The improvements on the quality of the received signal due to the proposed solution are illustrated with reference to scenarios of applicative interest. The performance of proposed technique is evaluated in terms of adjacent channel leakage ratio and error vector magnitude when long term evolution signal is applied at the input.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Space Shuttle Stiffener Ring Foam Failure Analysis, a Non-Conventional Approach

The Space Shuttle Program made use of the excellent properties of rigid polyurethane foam for cryogenic tank insulation and as structural protection on the solid rocket boosters. When foam applications de-bond, classical methods of failure analysis did not provide root cause of the failure of the foam. Realizing that foam is the ideal media to document and preserve its own mode of failure, thin sectioning was seen as a logical approach for foam failure analysis to observe the three dimensional morphology of the foam cells. The cell foam morphology provided a much greater understanding of the failure modes than previously achieved.

cryogenic tank insulation↗

Space Shuttle Stiffener Ring Foam Failure Analysis, a Non-Conventional Approach.

The Space Shuttle Program made use of the excellent properties of rigid polyurethane foam for cryogenic tank insulation and as structural protection on the solid rocket boosters. When foam applications de-bond, classical methods of failure analysis did not provide root cause of the failure of the foam. Realizing that foam is the ideal media to document and preserve its own mode of failure, thin sectioning was seen as a logical approach for foam failure analysis to observe the three dimensional morphology of the foam cells. The cell foam morphology provided a much greater understanding of the failure modes than previously achieved.

Foam↗

Health Monitoring System Technology Assessments: Cost Benefits Analysis

The subject of sensor-based structural health monitoring is very diverse and encompasses a wide range of activities including initiatives and innovations involving the development of advanced sensor, signal processing, data analysis, and actuation and control technologies. In addition, it embraces the consideration of the availability of low-cost, high-quality contributing technologies, computational utilities, and hardware and software resources that enable the operational realization of robust health monitoring technologies. This report presents a detailed analysis of the cost benefit and other logistics and operational considerations associated with the implementation and utilization of sensor-based technologies for use in aerospace structure health monitoring. The scope of this volume is to assess the economic impact, from an end-user perspective, implementation health monitoring technologies on three structures. It specifically focuses on evaluating the impact on maintaining and supporting these structures with and without health monitoring capability.

Kent, Renee M.↗