On coded partially phase-coherent communication over a Gaussian channel.
Timing error and noisy phase reference joint effect on system performance of coded partially phase coherent reception
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Results for “Probability theory”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Group algebra, convolution algebra, and applications to quantum mechanics.
Hamiltonian symmetry group role in quantum theory in stationary states classification, transition probabilities and selection rules
Loewdin, P.-O.↗
Relationships between stratospheric clear air turbulence and synoptic meteorological parameters over the western United States between 12-20 km altitude
Procedures for forecasting clear air turbulence in the stratosphere over the western United States from rawinsonde data are described and results presented. Approaches taken to relate meteorological parameters to regions of turbulence and nonturbulence encountered by the XB-70 during 46 flights at altitudes between 12-20 km include: empirical probabilities, discriminant function analysis, and mountainwave theory. Results from these techniques were combined into a procedure to forecast regions of clear air turbulence with an accuracy of 70-80 percent. A computer program was developed to provide an objective forecast directly from the rawinsonde sounding data.
Scoggins, J. R.↗
Correlated whistler and electron plasma oscillation bursts detected on ISEE-3
The ISEE-3 plasma wave instrument detects associated bursts of electron plasma oscillations and whistler mode waves at an average rate of event one every two days. The plasma wave measurements give the electron number density, and simultaneously measured E and B amplitudes are used to deduce an index of refraction consistent with whistler mode propagation for the measured number density and magnetic field. Burst durations are a few minutes, with some trains of bursts lasting up to an hour. Individual spectral scans (two per second) reveal that the whistler and plasma wave amplitude-time profiles differ within a burst. Peak plasma wave amplitudes are near one mV/m, and the peak whistler mode energy density exceeds that of the plasma oscillations by about a factor 100. The frequency of the whistler mode wave observed in one well diagnosed event agrees with the predictions of the heat flux whistler instability theory. The associated plasma wave instability probably requires a bump-on-tail feature in the heat flux electron component, possibly due to impulsive heating elsewhere on the field-line connecting to ISEE-3.
Kennel, C. F.↗
Electronic excitation and quenching of atoms at insulator surfaces
A trajectory-based semiclassical method is used to study electronically inelastic collisions of gas atoms with insulator surfaces. The method provides for quantum-mechanical treatment of the internal electronic dynamics of a localized region involving the gas/surface collision, and a classical treatment of all the nuclear degrees of freedom (self-consistently and in terms of stochastic trajectories), and includes accurate simulation of the bath-temperature effects. The method is easy to implement and has a generality that holds promise for many practical applications. The problem of electronically inelastic dynamics is solved by computing a set of stochastic trajectories that on thermal averaging directly provide electronic transition probabilities at a given temperature. The theory is illustrated by a simple model of a two-state gas/surface interaction.
Swaminathan, P. K.↗
Test particle method in kinetic theory of a plasma
Many body correlation and conditional probability functions of plasma shield clouds surrounding test particles
Matsuda, K.↗
Capture probabilities for secondary resonances
A perturbed pendulum model is used to analyze secondary resonances, and it is shown that a self-similarity between secondary and primary resonances exists. Henrard's (1982) theory is used to obtain formulas for the capture probability into secondary resonances. The tidal evolution of Miranda and Umbriel is considered as an example, and significant probabilities of capture into secondary resonances are found.
Malhotra, Renu↗
Structural Aspects of Neutron Survival Probabilities
The neutron survival probability (and related quantities including probabilities of extinction and initiation) is a central element of the broader stochastic theory of neutron populations and finds application in fields including reactor start-up, analysis of reactor power bursts and criticality accidents, and safeguards. In a full neutron transport formulation, the equation governing the single-neutron survival probability is a backward or adjoint-like integro-partial differential equation with the added complexity of being highly nonlinear. Analogous formulations of this equation exist in the context of many approximate theories of neutron transport, with the point kinetics formulation having received significant theoretical attention since the 1940s. This work continues this tradition by providing a novel analysis of the single-neutron survival probability equation using the tools of boundary layer theory. The analysis reveals that the “fully dynamic” solution of the single-neutron survival probability equation—and some key probability distributions derived from it—may be cast as a singular perturbation around the underlying quasi-static single-neutron probability of initiation. In this perturbation solution, the expansion parameter is the ratio of the neutron generation time to a macroscopic time scale characterizing the overall system evolution; this interpretation illuminates some of the fundamental structural aspects of neutron survival phenomena.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Technique for Evaluating Multiple Probability Occurrences /TEMPO/
Technique is described for adjustment of engineering response information by broadening the application of statistical subjective stimuli theory. The study is specifically concerned with a mathematical evaluation of the expected probability of relative occurrence which can be identified by comparison rating techniques.
Mezzacappa, M. A.↗
Physical Interpretation of the Correlation Between Multi-Angle Spectral Data and Canopy Height
Recent empirical studies have shown that multi-angle spectral data can be useful for predicting canopy height, but the physical reason for this correlation was not understood. We follow the concept of canopy spectral invariants, specifically escape probability, to gain insight into the observed correlation. Airborne Multi-Angle Imaging Spectrometer (AirMISR) and airborne Laser Vegetation Imaging Sensor (LVIS) data acquired during a NASA Terrestrial Ecology Program aircraft campaign underlie our analysis. Two multivariate linear regression models were developed to estimate LVIS height measures from 28 AirMISR multi-angle spectral reflectances and from the spectrally invariant escape probability at 7 AirMISR view angles. Both models achieved nearly the same accuracy, suggesting that canopy spectral invariant theory can explain the observed correlation. We hypothesize that the escape probability is sensitive to the aspect ratio (crown diameter to crown height). The multi-angle spectral data alone therefore may not provide enough information to retrieve canopy height globally
Schull, M. A.↗
Perturbative Stability and Error-Correction Thresholds of Quantum Codes
Topologically ordered phases are stable to local perturbations, and topological quantum error-correcting codes enjoy thresholds to local errors. We connect the two notions of stability by constructing classical statistical mechanics models for decoding general Calderbank-Shor-Steane codes and classical linear codes. Our construction encodes correction success probabilities under uncorrelated bit-flip and phase-flip errors, and simultaneously describes a generalized ℤ 2 lattice-gauge theory with quenched disorder. We observe that the clean limit of the latter is precisely the discretized imaginary-time path integral of the corresponding quantum code Hamiltonian when the errors are turned into a perturbative 𝑋 or 𝑍 magnetic field. Motivated by error-correction considerations, we define general order parameters for all such generalized ℤ 2 lattice-gauge theories, and show that they are generally lower bounded by success probabilities of error correction. For CSS codes satisfying the low-density parity-check condition and with a sufficiently large code distance, we prove the existence of a low-temperature ordered phase of the corresponding lattice-gauge theories, particularly for those lacking Euclidean spatial locality and/or when there is a nonzero code rate. We further argue that these results provide evidence for stable phases in the corresponding perturbed quantum Hamiltonians, obtained in the limit of continuous imaginary time. To do so, we distinguish space- and timelike defects in the lattice-gauge theory. A high free-energy cost of spacelike defects corresponds to a successful “memory experiment” and suppresses the energy splitting among the ground states, while a high free-energy cost of timelike defects corresponds to a successful “stability experiment” and points to a nonzero gap to local excitations.
quantum error correction↗
Benchmark calculations of thermal reaction rates. I - Quantal scattering theory
The thermal rate coefficient for the prototype reaction H + H2 yields H2 + H with zero total angular momentum is calculated by summing, averaging, and numerically integrating state-to-state reaction probabilities calculated by time-independent quantum-mechanical scattering theory. The results are very carefully converged with respect to all numerical parameters in order to provide high-precision benchmark results for confirming the accuracy of new methods and testing their efficiency.
Chatfield, David C.↗
Langevin Dynamics modeling of gas-phase ion-ion recombination (Final Technical Report)
A self-consistent trajectory simulation approach to model MN reactions (Fig. 1) which incorporates the probability of electron transfer as a Monte Carlo operator (Fig. 2) was developed and published as Liu et al. J. Chem. Phys. 159, 114111 (2023). The electron transfer probability p ET estimated using the two-state Landau-Zener (LZ) theory was incorporated into classical trajectory simulations to elicit predictions of MN reaction cross-section σ (vacuum) or rate constant β (finite pressure). Electronic structure calculations with multireference configuration interaction (MRCI) and large correlation consistent basis sets were used to derive inputs to the LZ theory. The key advance of our trajectory simulation approach is the incorporation of electron transfer probability and the inclusion of the effect of ion-neutral interactions on MN using a Langevin representation of the effect of neutral gas on ions. For H + – H - and Li + – H(D) - pairs, our approach quantitatively agrees with measured speed-dependent cross-sections for up to ~10 5 m/s. For the ion pair Ne + – Cl - , our predictions of the MN rate constant at ~1 torr are a factor of ~2 – 3 higher than the experimentally measured value. Similarly, for Xe + – F - in the pressure range of ~20000 – 80000 Pa, our predictions of the MN rate constant are ~20% lower but are in excellent qualitative agreement with experimental data. The paradigm of using trajectory simulations to self-consistently model MN reactions is the basis for inclusion of additional non-classical, and static magnetic and electric field effects. Subsequent work, published as Roy et al. focused on modeling recombination rate constant for three ion pairs (rare gas Ar + cation and halide anions): Ar + – Cl - , Ar + – Br - , Ar + – I - , 2) considering spin-orbit couplings in the electronic structure calculations to obtain high-fidelity estimates of the electron transfer probability and incorporated within the classical trajectory simulations to elicit predictions. In addition to calculations of ion-ion recombination rate constants, a classical trajectory simulation technique (published as Roy et al. J. Chem. Phys. 162(9), 094104 (2023)) that uses quaternions to represent orientation of non-spherical particles (ions or aerosol particles) was developed to simulate the recombination of diatomic or more generally, polyatomic molecules. Finally, several other ion pairs such as Ne + – Cl - , Kr + – Cl - , were explored using the developed semi-classical trajectory simulations to understand various challenges in tackling electronic structure calculations. Using empirical approaches to parameterize the electron transfer radius, trajectory simulations were also used to probe the effect of ion number density on MN rate constant.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Evaluating design safety margins in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers graphite core components design-by-analysis assessments
Graphite is an important material being used for core components in next-generation high-temperature gas-cooled nuclear reactors. The selection of graphite grade for a specific Designer is a complex task, dependent on reactor conditions, component functionality, and required reliability. The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) provides two semi-probabilistic design-by-analysis assessments to evaluate graphite core components against design reliability targets. The simplified assessment uses a 2-parameter Weibull distribution to describe the graphite grade’s tensile-strength distribution to establish component stress limits. The full assessment uses the 3-parameter Weibull distribution and a modified Weakest-Link Theory approach to calculate a component design probability of failure. The paper defines recommended assessment rules, which are the as-written simplified assessment and the full assessment with parameter lower bounds, the modulus update with threshold reduction, and the 2027 grouping rules. Code rules are applied to three grades: 2114, IG-110, and NBG-18. The baseline margin calculation is developed using the experimental tensile dogbone specimen. Percent margin is defined as the percent reduction in the median experimental load to obtain the allowable load per ASME assessments. Under the recommended rules, the SRC–1 margin in the simplified assessment ranged from 40.2 % to 52.7 % among the grades in this study and from 36.1 % to 49.8 % in the full assessment. The full assessment only decreases the margins by 2.5–4.5 % for the SRC-1 components and 0–1.5 % for the SRC-2 components for this baseline case. Margin is inversely related to material median strength (i.e., the strongest grade, 2114, has the lowest margin).
11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
MHD, disruptions and control physics: Chapter 4 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation
In this chapter, we review the progress in MHD stability, disruptions and control in magnetic fusion research that has occurred over the past (more than) one and a half decades since the publication by Hender et al in 2007 on the same topic as part of the update of ITER Physics Basis. During this period, remarkable progress has been achieved in the understanding of the basic physics and overall control of MHD instabilities through a wide spectrum of dedicated experiments, theory and modeling. The sawtooth activities are probably today one of the best understood of MHD events and very robust control schemes have been developed for reliable operation of tokamaks through core heating. Similarly, significant improvements have been achieved in understanding and control of neoclassical tearing modes, resistive wall modes or locked modes and their control through ECCD or error field control. The field of disruption prediction through application of artificial intelligence, machine learning or deep learning methods, which had already started at the time of the 2007 review, has progressed significantly due to general progress in these fields and application of newer, more sophisticated algorithms. However, although remarkable progress has been achieved in the field of Disruptions, their understanding, prediction, possible avoidance and mitigation still remain probably the most active fields of R&D globally in this field. This is especially because reactor grade machines like ITER and DEMO will be much less tolerant in respect of disruptions and runaway currents, and their occurrences must be either avoided altogether or minimized to an acceptable value without causing any significant hindrance to robust machine operations. This review is intended to present a broad spectrum of the R&D that has occurred in this field in support of ITER, which will also be of immense significance for all future machines, especially reactors like DEMO.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
The theory of exceedances
Computer program for calculating exceedance and variance probabilities
Rich, N. E.↗
Some sequential, distribution-free pattern classification procedures with applications
Some sequential, distribution-free pattern classification techniques are presented. The decision problem to which the proposed classification methods are applied is that of discriminating between two kinds of electroencephalogram responses recorded from a human subject: spontaneous EEG and EEG driven by a stroboscopic light stimulus at the alpha frequency. The classification procedures proposed make use of the theory of order statistics. Estimates of the probabilities of misclassification are given. The procedures were tested on Gaussian samples and the EEG responses.
Poage, J. L.↗
Radar studies of the equatorial electrojet at three frequencies.
Radar measurements at 16.25, 49.92, and 146.25 MHz of plasma irregularities in the equatorial electrojet were carried out with the objective to investigate the dependence upon wavelength of the properties of the type I and type II irregularities and to see to what extent this dependence is consistent with present theoretical ideas. The equipment and experimental procedure employed is discussed in detail, and the data obtained are analyzed. The following conclusions have been drawn: the Doppler velocity of the type I echoes corresponds to the acoustic velocity rather than the electron streaming velocity; the acoustic velocity varies with wavelength in at least approximate agreement with theory; and the type II irregularities are probably not excited directly, but rather result from nonlinear interactions among larger irregularities.
Balsley, B. B.↗