Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Prior Distribution”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11

Summary of the virtual Space Radiation “2022 Biospecimen and Tissue Sharing Summit.”

The Space Radiation Element (SRE) of the Human Research Program (HRP) aims to establish a robust biospecimen and tissue sharing collection (BTSC) to improve sample collection, tracking, access, distribution, and usability to maximize scientific return with intention. Leveraging biospecimens and tissues from prior experiments helps HRP achieve its scientific goals to characterize and mitigate the human health impacts of spaceflight by maximizing resources. The project intends to expand on the National Aeronautics and Space Agency’s (NASA) current resources and institutional knowledge to provide ongoing modernization to improve the usability and access to the current biospecimen archive. SRE organized and held a three-day virtual workshop September 13-15, 2022, to engage with the research community with the following goals: - Share information about: - Space Radiation’s current Biospecimen and Tissue Sharing Project; - Software implementation to track biospecimens; - NASA’s current tissue sharing capabilities and projects; and - Collect community feedback on how to develop, streamline, and optimize accessible and usable processes. The first two days featured speakers internal and external to NASA who presented on current resources, best practices, lessons learned, and researcher perspectives. On the third day, a set of key questions were presented, and participants were invited to discuss and provide input.

Shelita Hall Augustus↗

Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version . ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 micron and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 micron.

Xu, Y.-L.↗

On the X-Ray Spectral Energy Distributions of Star-Forming Galaxies: The 0.3-30 keV Spectrum of the Low-Metallicity Starburst Galaxy VV 114

Binary population synthesis combined with cosmological models suggests that X-ray emission from star-forming galaxies, consisting primarily of emission from X-ray binaries(XRBs)and the hot interstellar medium(ISM),could be an important, and perhaps dominant, source of heating of the intergalactic medium prior to the epoch of reionization. However, such models rely on empirical constraints for the X-ray spectral energy distributions(SEDs)of star-forming galaxies, which are currently lacking for low-metallicity galaxies. Using a combination of Chandra, XMM-Newton, and NuSTAR observations, we present new constraints on the 0.3–30 keV SED of the low-metallicity starburst galaxy VV 114, which is known to host several ultraluminous X-ray sources(ULXs)with luminosities above 1040erg s−1. We use an archival Chandra observation of VV 114 to constrain the contributions to the X-ray SED from the major X-ray-emitting components of the galaxy and newly acquired, nearly simultaneous XMM-Newton and NuSTAR observations to extend the spectral model derived from Chandra to cover the 0.3–30 keV range. Using our best-fit galaxy-wide spectral model, we derive the 0.3–30 keV SED ofVV114, which we find is dominated by emission from the XRB population, and in particular ULXs, at energies>1.5 keV, and which we find to have an elevated galaxy-integrated X-ray luminosity per unit star formation rate relative to higher-metallicity star-forming galaxies. We discuss our results in terms of the effect of metallicity on XRB populations and the hot ISM, as well as the importance of X-ray emission from star-forming galaxies in the high-redshift universe.

Kristen Garofali↗

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

The currently planned schedule for advanced Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities to support human exploration missions is unlikely to generate sufficient data to enable statistically-supportable, precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates to meet existing crew safety expectations. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches –namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities –will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of International Space Station (ISS) ECLSS operations, a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass. A Bayesian estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, any inaccuracy in theseprior estimates currently hasa strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Reliability↗

More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction

The currently planned schedule for advanced Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities to support human exploration missions is unlikely to generate sufficient data to enable statistically-supportable, precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates to meet existing crew safety expectations. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches –namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities –will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of International Space Station (ISS) ECLSS operations, a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass. A Bayesian estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, any inaccuracy in theseprior estimates currently hasa strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.

Reliability↗

Damage states in laminated composite three-point bend specimens: An experimental-analytical correlation study

Damage states in laminated composites were studied by considering the model problem of a laminated beam subjected to three-point bending. A combination of experimental and theoretical research techniques was used to correlate the experimental results with the analytical stress distributions. The analytical solution procedure was based on the stress formulation approach of the mathematical theory of elasticity. The solution procedure is capable of calculating the ply-level stresses and beam displacements for any laminated beam of finite length using the generalized plane deformation or plane stress state assumption. Prior to conducting the experimental phase, the results from preliminary analyses were examined. Significant effects in the ply-level stress distributions were seen depending on the fiber orientation, aspect ratio, and whether or not a grouped or interspersed stacking sequence was used. The experimental investigation was conducted to determine the different damage modes in laminated three-point bend specimens. The test matrix consisted of three-point bend specimens of 0 deg unidirectional, cross-ply, and quasi-isotropic stacking sequences. The dependence of the damage initiation loads and ultimate failure loads were studied, and their relation to damage susceptibility and damage tolerance of the mean configuration was discussed. Damage modes were identified by visual inspection of the damaged specimens using an optical microscope. The four fundamental damage mechanisms identified were delaminations, matrix cracking, fiber breakage, and crushing. The correlation study between the experimental results and the analytical results were performed for the midspan deflection, indentation, damage modes, and damage susceptibility.

Starbuck, J. Michael↗

Measurements of gamma-ray line profiles from SN1987A and the structure of the ejecta

A few balloon-borne-instrument measurements of SN1987A's gamma-ray line profiles furnish the most direct indication of the distribution of freshly synthesized Co-56 radioactive material in the SN ejecta. Most of these profiles exhibit line shapes inconsistent with the standard, spherically symmetric and homogeneously mixed models, and are very similar to line profiles for IR lines of Fe observed prior to day 500 of the SN. The consistency of the line profile from IR to gamma-ray energies may reflect the distribution of freshly synthesized material in the expanding SN shell.

Tueller, J.↗

Prevention of thermal bending of multilayered beams and plates

By adding an extra layer to multilayer beams or plates of different isotropic materials, it is possible to prevent the thermal bending of these materials. With the proper selection of thermoelastic properties the curvature produced prior to this addition would be eliminated. Several numerical examples are presented for various temperature distributions. A simple experiment was conducted, involving the addition of a brass strip to a bimetallic strip made of aluminum and steel at room temperature. The trimetal strip was placed in a furnace and remained straight for varying temperatures.

Yang, J. C. S.↗

Wind tunnel wall interference in closed, ventilated and adaptive test sections

A wall interference correction method for closed rectangular test sections was developed which uses measured wall pressures. Measurements with circular discs for blockage and a rectangular wing as a lift generator in a square closed test section validate this method. These measurements are intended to be a basis of comparison for measurements in the same tunnel using ventilated (in these case, slotted) walls. Using the vortex lattice method and homogeneous boundary conditions, calculations were performed which show sufficiently high pressure levels at the walls for correction purposes in test sections with porous walls. In Gottingen, an adaptive test section (which is a deformable rubber tube of 800 mm diameter) was built and a computer program was developed which is able to find the necessary wall adaptation for interference-free measurements in a single step. To check the program prior to the first run, the vortex lattice method was used to calculate wall pressure distributions in the nonadapted test section as input data for the one-step method. Comparison of the pressure distribution in the adapted test section with free-flight data shows nearly perfect agreement. An extension of the computer program can be made to evaluate the remaining interference corrections.

Holst, H.↗

Global tropospheric methane: An indication of atmosphere-biosphere-climate interactions?

Methane is an important atmospheric gas with potentially critical roles in both photochemical and radiation transfer processes. A major natural source of atmospheric methane involves anaerobic fermentation of organic materials in wetland soils and sediments. A data base of field measurements of atmospheric methane was used in the development of a global methane emissions inventory. Calculations support the following hypotheses: (1) Human activities currently produce methane at a rate approximately equal to natural resources (these rapidly increasing anthropogenic sources can explain most of the recent increase observed in tropospheric methane); and (2) Prior to 200 B.P. (before the present), the influence of climate on wetland extent and distribution was probably a dominant factor controlling global biogenic methane emissions to the atmosphere.

Harriss, Robert C.↗

Gravity Effect on Capillary Limit in a Miniature Loop Heat Pipe with Multiple Evaporators and Multiple Condensers

This paper describes the gravity effect on heat transport characteristics in a minia6re loop heat pipe with multiple evaporators and multiple condensers. Tests were conducted in three different orientations: horizontal, 45deg tilt, and vertical. The gravity affected the loop's natural operating temperature, the maximum heat transport capability, and the thermal conductance. In the case that temperatures of compensation chambers were actively controlled, the required control heater power was also dependent on the test configuration. In the vertical configuration, the secondary wick was not able to pump the liquid from the CC to the evaporator against the gravity. Thus the loop could operate stably or display some peculiar behaviors depending on the initial liquid distribution between the evaporator and the CC. Because such an initial condition was not known prior to the test, the subsequent loop performance was unpredictable.

Nagano, Hosei↗

Intelligent Integrated Health Management for a System of Systems

An intelligent integrated health management system (IIHMS) incorporates major improvements over prior such systems. The particular IIHMS is implemented for any system defined as a hierarchical distributed network of intelligent elements (HDNIE), comprising primarily: (1) an architecture (Figure 1), (2) intelligent elements, (3) a conceptual framework and taxonomy (Figure 2), and (4) and ontology that defines standards and protocols. Some definitions of terms are prerequisite to a further brief description of this innovation: A system-of-systems (SoS) is an engineering system that comprises multiple subsystems (e.g., a system of multiple possibly interacting flow subsystems that include pumps, valves, tanks, ducts, sensors, and the like); 'Intelligent' is used here in the sense of artificial intelligence. An intelligent element may be physical or virtual, it is network enabled, and it is able to manage data, information, and knowledge (DIaK) focused on determining its condition in the context of the entire SoS; As used here, 'health' signifies the functionality and/or structural integrity of an engineering system, subsystem, or process (leading to determination of the health of components); 'Process' can signify either a physical process in the usual sense of the word or an element into which functionally related sensors are grouped; 'Element' can signify a component (e.g., an actuator, a valve), a process, a controller, an actuator, a subsystem, or a system; The term Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) is used to describe a capability that focuses on determining the condition (health) of every element in a complex system (detect anomalies, diagnose causes, prognosis of future anomalies), and provide data, information, and knowledge (DIaK) not just data to control systems for safe and effective operation. A major novel aspect of the present development is the concept of intelligent integration. The purpose of intelligent integration, as defined and implemented in the present IIHMS, is to enable automated analysis of physical phenomena in imitation of human reasoning, including the use of qualitative methods. Intelligent integration is said to occur in a system in which all elements are intelligent and can acquire, maintain, and share knowledge and information. In the HDNIE of the present IIHMS, an SoS is represented as being operationally organized in a hierarchical-distributed format. The elements of the SoS are considered to be intelligent in that they determine their own conditions within an integrated scheme that involves consideration of data, information, knowledge bases, and methods that reside in all elements of the system. The conceptual framework of the HDNIE and the methodologies of implementing it enable the flow of information and knowledge among the elements so as to make possible the determination of the condition of each element. The necessary information and knowledge is made available to each affected element at the desired time, satisfying a need to prevent information overload while providing context-sensitive information at the proper level of detail. Provision of high-quality data is a central goal in designing this or any IIHMS. In pursuit of this goal, functionally related sensors are logically assigned to groups denoted processes. An aggregate of processes is considered to form a system. Alternatively or in addition to what has been said thus far, the HDNIE of this IIHMS can be regarded as consisting of a framework containing object models that encapsulate all elements of the system, their individual and relational knowledge bases, generic methods and procedures based on models of the applicable physics, and communication processes (Figure 2). The framework enables implementation of a paradigm inspired by how expert operators monitor the health of systems with the help of (1) DIaK from various sources, (2) software tools that assist in rapid visualization of the condition of the system, (3) analical software tools that assist in reasoning about the condition, (4) sharing of information via network communication hardware and software, and (5) software tools that aid in making decisions to remedy unacceptable conditions or improve performance.

Smith, Harvey↗

The Impacts of Fossil Fuel Emission Uncertainties and Accounting for 3-D Chemical CO2 Production on Inverse Natural Carbon Flux Estimates from Satellite and In Situ Data

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) inversions for estimating natural carbon fluxes typically do not allow for adjustment of fossil fuel CO2 emissions, despite significant uncertainties in emission inventories and inadequacies in the specification of international bunker emissions in inversions. Also, most inversions place CO2 release from fossil fuel combustion and biospheric sources entirely at the surface. However, a non-negligible portion of the emissions actually occurs in the form of reduced carbon species, which are eventually oxidized to CO2 downwind. Omission of this ‘chemical pump’ can result in a significant redistribution of the inferred total carbon fluxes among regions. We assess the impacts of different prescriptions of fossil fuel emissions and accounting for the chemical pump on flux estimation, with a novel aspect of conducting both satellite CO2 observation-based and surface in situ-based inversions. We apply 3-D carbon monoxide (CO) loss rates archived from a state-of-the-art GEOS chemistry and climate model simulation in a forward transport model run to simulate the distribution of CO2 originating from oxidation of carbon species. We also subtract amounts from the prior surface CO2 fluxes that are actually emitted in the form of fossil and biospheric CO, methane, and nonmethane volatile organic compounds (VOCs). We find that the posterior large-scale fluxes are generally insensitive to the finer-scale spatial differences between the ODIAC and CDIAC fossil fuel CO2 gridded datasets and assumptions about international bunker emissions. However, accounting for 3-D chemical CO2 production and the surface correction shifts the global carbon sink, e.g., from land to ocean and from the tropics to the north, with a magnitude and even direction that depend on assumptions about the surface correction. A GOSAT satellite-based inversion is more sensitive to the chemical pump than one using in situ observations, exhibiting substantial flux impacts of 0.28, 0.53, and -0.47 Pg C yr(exp -1) over tropical land, global land, and oceans, due to differences in the horizontal and vertical sampling of the wo observation types. Overall, the biases from neglecting the chemical pump appear to be minor relative to the flux estimate uncertainties and the differences between the in situ and GOSAT inversions, but their relative importance will grow in the future as observational coverage further increases and satellite retrieval biases decrease.

James S Wang↗

Deep Learning-Based Negotiation Strategy Selection for Cooperative Conflict Resolution in Urban Air Mobility

This paper presents a collaborative conflict resolution technique using deep neural network-based intelligent search of the solution space. This approach offers a rapid convergence to a mutually acceptable solution for real-time conflict resolution, suitable for urban air mobility operations. Furthermore, the presented technique allows operational flexibility to the urban air mobility agents where these agents can collaboratively devise the solution via integrative negotiation, based on their local utility functions, as long as such a solution does not violate the global safety thresholds. The presented machine-to-machine negotiation method is built on our prior work on holistic assessment of the airspace and potential conflict detection implemented at-the-edge, onboard the unmanned aircraft systems. This paper extends the prior work to augment decision-making at-the-edge, thereby, promising a true distributed control architecture for urban air mobility. In this approach, each agent (a) builds a potential in-flight conflict map, (b) identifies the conflicting agents, (c) dynamically prepares a list of alternatives based on its current utility functions, (d) negotiates with the conflicting agents to pick one of these alternatives, and (e) implements the negotiated alternative to mutually resolve the conflict. Note that such an approach does not require a contingency plan to be made pre-flight, as the conflict resolution strategies are decided and negotiated in real time based on the present state of the agent. The contingency plan, if available, can serve as an input to the real-time conflict resolution strategy formulation, and also can be used as a fallback plan in case the negotiation fails and the impacted agents need to switch to a rule-based/supervisory resolution mode from the discussed distributed resolution mode. The presented collaborative negotiation-based conflict resolution technique incorporates a time-dependent reward function to catalyze collaborative resolution by incentivizing the agents with local and global rewards beneficial to their business operations.

Advanced Air Mobility↗

Meteoritic Amino Acids: Diversity in Compositions Reflects Parent Body Histories

The analysis of amino acids in meteorites dates back over 50 years; however, it is only in recent years that research has expanded beyond investigations of a narrow set of meteorite groups (exemplied by the Murchison meteorite) into meteorites of other types and classes. These new studies have shown a wide diversity in the abundance and distribution of amino acids across carbonaceous chondrite groups, highlighting the role of parent body processes and composition in the creation, preservation, or alteration of amino acids. Although most chiral amino acids are racemic in meteorites, the enantiomeric distribution of some amino acids, particularly of the nonprotein amino acid isovaline, has also been shown to vary both within certain meteorites and across carbonaceous meteorite groups. Large -enantiomeric excesses of some extraterrestrial protein amino acids (up to 60) have also been observed in rare cases and point to nonbiological enantiomeric enrichment processes prior to the emergence of life. In this Outlook, we review these recent meteoritic analyses, focusing on variations in abundance, structural distributions, and enantiomeric distributions of amino acids and discussing possible explanations for these observations and the potential for future work.

carbonaceous chondrite groups↗

Gravity and Rossby Wave Signatures in the Tropical Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere Based on Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ), 1998-2007

Prior investigations attempted to determine the relative influence of advection and convective processes on ozone and water vapor distributions in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) through analyses of tracers, related physical parameters (e.g., outgoing long-wave radiation, precipitable water, and temperature), or with models. In this study, stable laminae in Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesonde Network (SHADOZ) ozone profIles from 1998 to 2007 are interpreted in terms of gravity waves (GW) or Rossby waves (RW) that are identified with vertical and quasi-horizontal displacements, respectively. Using the method of Pierce and Grant (1998) as applied by Thompson et al. (2007a, 2007b, 2010, 2011), amplitudes and frequencies in ozone laminae are compared among representative SHADOZ sites over Africa and the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic oceans. GW signals maximize in the TTL and lower stratosphere. Depending on site and season, GW are identified in up to 90% of the soundings. GW are most prevalent over the Pacific and eastern Indian oceans, a distribution consistent with vertically propagating equatorial Kelvin waves. Ozone laminae from RW occur more often below the tropical tropopause and with lower frequency 20%). Gravity wave and Rossby wave indices (GWI, RWI) are formulated to facilitate analysis of interannual variability of wave signatures among sites. GWI is positively correlated with a standard ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) index over American Samoa (14degS, 171degW) and negatively correlated at Watukosek, Java (7.5degS, 114degE), Kuala Lumpur (3degN, 102degE), and Ascension Island (80degS, 15degW). Generally, the responses of GW and RW to ENSO are consistent with prior studies.

Thompson, Anne M.↗

Distribution and geologic history of materials excavated by the lunar crater Bullialdus

The crater Bullialdus is a 61 km, Eratosthenian-age impact crater located on the western edge of Mare Nubium. Previous analysis of the spatial distribution of materials in the area using nine telescopic near-infrared spectra suggested a possible three-layer structure prior to the impact event: two shallow gabbroic layers and one deeper noritic layer (from a potential depth of 5.5 km). The initial interpretation of this stratigraphy was that Bullialdus may have tapped a layered mafic pluton, such as have been invoked to explain the existence of Mg-suite rocks. High-spatial resolution CCD images of Bullialdus were analyzed to better map the spatial distribution of the observed lithologies, and to assess the plausibility of the pluton interpretation.

Tompkins, Stefanie↗

Comparison of alternate fuels for aircraft

A comparison of candidate alternate fuels for aircraft is presented. The fuels discussed include liquid hydrogen, liquid methane, and synthetic aviation kerosene. Each fuel is evaluated from the standpoint of production, transmission, airport storage and distribution facilities, and use in aircraft. Technology deficient areas for cryogenic fuels, which should be advanced prior to the introduction of the fuels into the aviation industry, are identified, as are the cost and energy penalties associated with not achieving those advances. Environmental emissions and safety aspects of fuel selection are discussed. A detailed description of the various fuel production and liquefaction processes and their efficiencies and economics is given.

Witcofski, R. D.↗