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NASA NTRS1992

Operational seasonal and interannual predictions of ocean conditions

Dr. Leetmaa described current work at the U.S. National Meteorological Center (NMC) on coupled systems leading to a seasonal prediction system. He described the way in which ocean thermal data is quality controlled and used in a four dimensional data assimilation system. This consists of a statistical interpolation scheme, a primitive equation ocean general circulation model, and the atmospheric fluxes that are required to force this. This whole process generated dynamically consist thermohaline and velocity fields for the ocean. Currently routine weekly analyses are performed for the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. These analyses are used for ocean climate diagnostics and as initial conditions for coupled forecast models. Specific examples of output products were shown both in the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean.

Leetmaa, Ants↗

NASA NTRS1992

Modeling the quasi-biennial oscillation's effect on the winter stratospheric circulation

The influence of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the winter middle atmosphere is modeled with a mechanistic global primitive equation model. The model's polar vortex evolution is sensitive to the lower stratosphere's tropical winds, with the polar vortex becoming more (less) disturbed as the lower stratospheric winds are more easterly (westerly). This agrees with the observed relationship between wintertime polar circulation strength and the phase of the QBO in the lower stratosphere. In these experiments it is the extratropical planetary Rossby waves that provide the tropical-extratropical coupling mechanism. More easterly tropical winds in the lower stratosphere act to confine the extratropical Rossby waves farther north and closer to the vortex at the QBO altitudes, weakening the vortex relative to the case of westerly QBO phase. While the QBO winds occur in the lower stratosphere, the anomaly in the polar vortex strength is strongest at higher levels.

O'Sullivan, Donal↗

NASA NTRS1992

Propagation of planetary waves between the troposphere and stratosphere

The propagation of planetary waves between the troposphere and stratosphere is investigated using a linear, time-dependent, primitive equation model. It is found that the tropopause acts like a valve for the propagation of planetary waves. The key parameters controlling the valve are the vertical gradient of buoyancy frequency and the vertical shear of the zonal winds at the tropopause. For a given wind profile smaller gradient of buoyancy frequency enhances the propagation of planetary waves. For a given profile of buoyancy frequency the larger the shear, the more the wave activity is trapped in the troposphere, and therefore, there is less left to propagate into the stratosphere. The transmission across the tropopause is, however, not sensitive to zonal winds in the upper stratosphere. The propagation of planetary waves is very sensitive to transience. More transient waves propagate more vertically within the troposphere, and for more transient waves, more wave activity is transferred into the stratosphere from the troposphere.

Chen, Ping↗

NASA NTRS1993

A global multilevel atmospheric model using a vector semi-Lagrangian finite-difference scheme. I - Adiabatic formulation

An adiabatic global multilevel primitive equation model using a two time-level, semi-Lagrangian semi-implicit finite-difference integration scheme is presented. A Lorenz grid is used for vertical discretization and a C grid for the horizontal discretization. The momentum equation is discretized in vector form, thus avoiding problems near the poles. The 3D model equations are reduced by a linear transformation to a set of 2D elliptic equations, whose solution is found by means of an efficient direct solver. The model (with minimal physics) is integrated for 10 days starting from an initialized state derived from real data. A resolution of 16 levels in the vertical is used, with various horizontal resolutions. The model is found to be stable and efficient, and to give realistic output fields. Integrations with time steps of 10 min, 30 min, and 1 h are compared, and the differences are found to be acceptable.

Bates, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1993

On the establishment of stationary waves in the Northern Hemisphere winter

The establishment of stationary waves in the Northern Hemisphere winter is investigated using stationary and time-dependent linear primitive equation models. Confirming the results of Nigam and Lindzen, we find that small displacements of the subtropical jet can cause significant changes in the stationary-wave response. The time scale for stationary establishment is found to be on the order of 5 days, both in the troposphere and in the lower stratosphere. The exception is for a northward shift of the subtropical jet, in which case the establishment of the new stationary solution in the stratosphere occurs on a longer time scale, which is mainly determined by dissipation. Implications for low-frequency atmospheric variability and mid- and long-range weather forecasting are discussed.

Da Silva, Arlindo M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Sensitivity of trajectory calculations to the temporal frequency of wind data

A mesoscale primitive equation model is used to create a 36-h simulation of the three-dimensional wind field of an intense maritime extratropical cyclone. The control experiment uses the simulated wind field every 15 min in a trajectory model to calculate back trajectories from various horizontal and vertical positions of interest relative to synoptic features of the storm. The latter trajectories are compared to trajectories that were calculated with the simulated wind data degraded in time to 30 min, 1 h, 3 h, 6h, and 12 h. Various error statistics reveal significant deterioration in trajectory accuracy between trajectories calculated with 1- and 3-h data frequencies. Trajectories calculated with 15-min, 30-min, and 1-h data frequencies yielded similar results, while trajectories calculated with data time frequencies 3 h and greater yielded results with unacceptably large errors.

Doty, Kevin G.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Martian global dust storms - Zonally symmetric numerical simulations including size-dependent particle transport

A zonally symmetric primitive-equation grid-point model of the Martian atmosphere is coupled with an aerosol transport/microphysical model in order to numerically investigate the size-dependent transport of dust particles in the Martian atmosphere. The coupled model accounts for diabatic heating due to a radiatively active evolving dust field, but neglects feedbacks between atmosphere-surface interactions and surface dust lifting. The differing suspension lifetimes of dust particles of various sizes (radius = 1-80 microns), in conjunction with spatially varying atmospheric dynamics, result in latitudinal differences in several measurements of the column integrated particle concentration. This work indicates the importance of considering the full range of particle sizes (and shapes) of the suspended dust during Martian global dust storms and their impact upon the spatial extent and wavelength-dependent radiative influence of such storms.

Murphy, James R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Simulations of stratospheric warmings in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres

Simulations of stratospheric final warmings made with two primitive-equation models of the stratosphere and mesosphere are presented. The principal difference between the models is the choice of vertical coordinate; pressure is used in one, and potential temperature in the other. The Southern Hemisphere final warming of 1987 and the Northern Hemisphere final warming of 1985 are simulated. The general characteristics of the simulations are examined by comparing simulated planetary wave events with observations. The formation of baroclinic zones in the simulations is investigated. The zones had vertical temperature gradients of up to 10 K/km.

Manney, Gloria L.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Preconditioning for stratospheric sudden warmings - Sensitivity studies with a numerical model

Results are presented of numerical experiments performed to determine what constitutes preconditioning for stratospheric sudden warmings. A number of 20-d runs were performed with a 3D primitive equation model. Runs varied in that they had different (zonally symmetric) initial fields and different lower boundary planetary wave fields, both based on NMC data for particular days. Initial and boundary data were used from the two minor and the sole major sudden warmings of January-February 1979 and some minor and the sole major sudden warmings of January-February 1989. To isolate the properties of the initial conditions from preconditioned cases and those with no warming, hybrid initial fields were created by combining data from two different days, one preconditioned and the other not. Runs with the hybrid initial conditions indicate that it is the lower stratospheric winds that are important in characterizing a preconditioned flow. It is suggested that it would be possible for a preconditioned state to exist for at least a short time without a warming occurring.

Smith, Anne K.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Simulations of the seasonal evolution of planetary waves in the stratosphere

Results are presented of experiments performed with the 3D primitive equation model of the middle atmosphere to elucidate the connections between the behavior of planetary waves in the stratosphere and in the upper troposphere during the seasonal cycle. In these experiments the geopotential height fields at the model's lower boundary consisted of a time-varying zonally symmetric component plus a time-independent wave 1. Experiments were also performed with the same time-varying zonally symmetric component plus a time-independent combination of wave 1 and 2. In each of the wave 1-only experiments, the wave 1 amplitude in the middle stratosphere has two maxima, one in fall and the other in spring, separated by a midwinter minimum. It is suggested that some important transient features in the seasonal evolution of stratospheric planetary waves do not depend on time variations in the amplitude or phase of the corresponding tropospheric waves.

Farrara, John D.↗

NASA NTRS1992

The coupling of the troposphere and stratosphere

A linear, time-dependent, primitive-equation, 3D numerical model is used to investigate the dynamical coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere through the vertical propagation of planetry waves. Attention is given to the roles of the tropopause in affecting the propagation of planetary waves and to the extent to which the stratosphere can determine its own wave driving, i.e., the sensitivity of the generation of the wave activity in the troposphere to the change of zonal wind in the stratosphere. Two maxima in Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux convergence are found for wave 1 in high latitudes, one in the upper stratosphere and the other in the upper troposphere. For wave 2 there is a third maximum north of the zero wind line in the tropical stratosphere. The formation of the maximum in EP-flux convergence in the upper troposphere is related to the dissipation of non-WKBJ waves near a local maximum of the refractive index. The existence of the local maximum in refractive index at the tropopause is a result of the great gradient of the buoyancy frequency as well as the vertical shear of the zonal flow there.

Chen, Ping↗

NASA NTRS1992

Characteristics of 3-D transport simulations of the stratosphere and mesosphere

A 3D mechanistic, primitive-equation model of the stratosphere and mesosphere is coupled to an offline spectral transport model. The dynamics model is initialized with and forced by observations so that the coupled models may be used to study specific episodes. Results are compared with those obtained by transport online in the dynamics model. Although some differences are apparent, the results suggest that coupling of the models to a comprehensive photochemical package will provide a useful tool for studying the evolution of constituents in the middle atmosphere during specific episodes.

Fairlie, T. D. A.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Investigate wave-mean flow interaction and transport in the extratropical winter stratosphere

The grant supported studies using several models along with observations in order to investigate some questions of wave-mean flow interaction and transport in the extratropical winter stratosphere. A quasi-geostrophic wave model was used to investigate the possibility that resonant growth of planetary wave 2 may have played a role in the sudden stratospheric warming of February 1979. The results of the time-dependent integration support the interpretation of resonance during February, 1979. Because of the possibility that the model treatment of critical line interactions exerted a controlling influence on the atmospheric dynamics, a more accurate model was needed for wave-mean flow interaction studies. A new model was adapted from the 3-dimensional primitive equation model developed by K. Rose and G. Brasseur. In its present form the model is global, rather than hemispheric; it contains an infrared cooling algorithm and a parameterized solar heating; it has parameterized gravity wave drag; and the chemistry has been entirely revised.

Smith, Anne K.↗

NASA NTRS1993

A diagnostic model to estimate winds and small-scale drag from Mars Observer PMIRR data

Theoretical and modeling studies indicate that small-scale drag due to breaking gravity waves is likely to be of considerable importance for the circulation in the middle atmospheric region (approximately 40-100 km altitude) on Mars. Recent earth-based spectroscopic observations have provided evidence for the existence of circulation features, in particular, a warm winter polar region, associated with gravity wave drag. Since the Mars Observer PMIRR experiment will obtain temperature profiles extending from the surface up to about 80 km altitude, it will be extensively sampling middle atmospheric regions in which gravity wave drag may play a dominant role. Estimating the drag then becomes crucial to the estimation of the atmospheric winds from the PMIRR-observed temperatures. An interative diagnostic model based upon one previously developed and tested with earth satellite temperature data will be applied to the PMIRR measurements to produce estimates of the small-scale zonal drag and three-dimensional wind fields in the Mars middle atmosphere. This model is based on the primitive equations, and can allow for time dependence (the time tendencies used may be based upon those computed in a Fast Fourier Mapping procedure). The small-scale zonal drag is estimated as the residual in the zonal momentum equation; the horizontal winds having first been estimated from the meridional momentum equation and the continuity equation. The scheme estimates the vertical motions from the thermodynamic equation, and thus needs estimates of the diabatic heating based upon the observed temperatures. The latter will be generated using a radiative model. It is hoped that the diagnostic scheme will be able to produce good estimates of the zonal gravity wave drag in the Mars middle atmosphere, estimates that can then be used in other diagnostic or assimilation efforts, as well as more theoretical studies.

Barnes, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1993

The annual pressure cycle on Mars: Results from the LMD Martian atmospheric general circulation model

We have been developing a General Circulation Model (GCM) of the martian atmosphere since 1989. The model has been described rather extensively elsewhere and only the main characteristics are given here. The dynamical part of the model, adapted from the LMD terrestrial climate model, is based on a finite-difference formulation of the classical 'primitive equations of meteorology.' The radiative transfer code includes absorption and emission by CO2 (carefully validated by comparison to line-by-line calculations) and dust in the thermal range and absorption and scattering by dust in the visible range. Other physical parameterizations are included: modeling of vertical turbulent mixing, dry convective adjustment (in order to prevent vertical unstable temperature profiles), and a multilayer model of the thermal conduction in the soil. Finally, the condensation-sublimation of CO2 is introduced through specification of a pressure-dependent condensation temperature. The atmospheric and surface temperatures are prevented from falling below this critical temperature by condensation and direct precipitation onto the surface of atmospheric CO2. The only prespecified spatial fields are the surface thermal inertia, albedo, and topography.

Hourdin, Frederic↗

NASA NTRS1993

The influence of orography on the transport of atmospheric constituents

Given the fact that martian orography varies over a range of two scale heights (cf., about one scale height on Earth), it is thought that on Mars some aspects of the circulation should be affected to a large degree by the presence of orography. Initial results from two numerical models are presented that illustrate the effect of orography on cross-equatorial transport on Mars. On Earth, western boundary currents are found not only in the oceans as one would expect, but also in the troposphere, the most notable example being the East African Jet, which has an important effect on the monsoon circulation of the Eastern Indian Ocean. Two models were used for this investigation: a simple GCM (hereafter referred to as the SGCM); and a simple one-level barotropic model (BM). The SGCM solves the hydrostatic primitive equations on a sphere by representing model variables by spherical harmonics in the horizontal, with nonlinear terms being calculated in grid-point space. In the vertical, the model uses the sigma coordinate system in finite-difference form. The model represents the radiative processes in the atmosphere by a Newtonian relaxation to a specified zonal mean temperature state and surface drag by Rayleigh friction in the lowest model level.

Joshi, Manoj M.↗

NASA NTRS1993

An observing system simulation experiment for the Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS)

The present observing system-simulation experiments evaluate the potential of a Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) instrument for 5-day forecasting, using a primitive-equation multilevel spectral global circulation model. A 55-deg-inclined and a 98-deg sun-synchronous orbit are examined, by adding LAWS wind profiles into a global 4D data-assimilation system, and comparing both the analyses and forecasts to a control experiment. The 4D data-assimilation system consists of a multivariate optimum interpolation analysis and a nonlinear, normal-mode intialization, using the aforementioned global circulation model.

Rohaly, G. D.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Experiments with the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) using the synthetic relative humidity

This study is intended to examine the impact of the synthetic relative humidity on the model simulation of mesoscale convective storm environment. The synthetic relative humidity is derived from the National Weather Services surface observations, and non-conventional sources including aircraft, radar, and satellite observations. The latter sources provide the mesoscale data of very high spatial and temporal resolution. The synthetic humidity data is used to complement the National Weather Services rawinsonde observations. It is believed that a realistic representation of initial moisture field in a mesoscale model is critical for the model simulation of thunderstorm development, and the formation of non-convective clouds as well as their effects on the surface energy budget. The impact will be investigated based on a real-data case study using the mesoscale atmospheric simulation system developed by Mesoscale Environmental Simulations Operations, Inc. The mesoscale atmospheric simulation system consists of objective analysis and initialization codes, and the coarse-mesh and fine-mesh dynamic prediction models. Both models are a three dimensional, primitive equation model containing the essential moist physics for simulating and forecasting mesoscale convective processes in the atmosphere. The modeling system is currently implemented at the Applied Meteorology Unit, Kennedy Space Center. Two procedures involving the synthetic relative humidity to define the model initial moisture fields are considered. It is proposed to perform several short-range (approximately 6 hours) comparative coarse-mesh simulation experiments with and without the synthetic data. They are aimed at revealing the model sensitivities should allow us both to refine the specification of the observational requirements, and to develop more accurate and efficient objective analysis schemes. The goal is to advance the MASS (Mesoscal Atmospheric Simulation System) modeling expertise so that the model output can provide reliable guidance for thunderstorm forecasting.

Chang, Chia-Bo↗