Results for “Predictive analytics” — Page 11

NASA NTRS1981

KC-135 winglet flight results

Three KC-135 winglet configurations were flight tested for cant/incidence angles of 15 deg/-4 deg, 15 deg/-2 deg, and 0 deg/-4 deg, as well as the basic wing. The flight results for the 15 deg/-4 deg and basic wing configurations confirm the wind tunnel predicted 7% incremental decrease in total drag at cruise conditions. The 15 deg/-4 configuration flight measured wing and winglet pressure distributions, loads, stability and control, flutter, and buffet also correlate well with predicted values. The only unexpected flight results as compared with analytical predictions is a flutter speed decrease for the 0 deg/-4 deg configuration. The 15 deg/-2 deg configuration results show essentially the same incremental drag reduction as the 15 deg/-4 deg configuration; however, the flight loads are approximately 30% higher for the 15 deg/-2 deg configuration. The drag data for the 0 deg/-4 deg configuration show only a flight drag reduction.

Montoya, L. C.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Finite Element Simulations of Two Vertical Drop Tests of F-28 Fuselage Sections

In March 2017, a vertical drop test of a forward fuselage section of a Fokker F-28 MK4000 aircraft was conducted as part of a joint NASA/FAA project to investigate the performance of transport aircraft under realistic crash conditions. In June 2017, a vertical drop test was conducted of a wing-box fuselage section of the same aircraft. Both sections were configured with two rows of aircraft seats, in a triple-double configuration. A total of ten Anthropomorphic Test Devices (ATDs) were secured in seats using standard lap belt restraints. The forward fuselage section was also configured with luggage in the cargo hold. Both sections were outfitted with two hat racks, each with added ballast mass. The drop tests were performed at the Landing and Impact Research facility located at NASA Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia. The measured impact velocity for the forward fuselage section was 346.8-in/s onto soil. The wing-box section was dropped with a downward facing pitch angle onto a sloping soil surface in order to create an induced forward acceleration in the airframe. The vertical impact velocity of the wing-box section was 349.2-in/s. A second objective of this project was to assess the capabilities of finite element simulations to predict the test responses. Finite element models of both fuselage sections were developed for execution in LS-DYNA(Registered Trademark), a commercial explicit nonlinear transient dynamic code. The models contained accurate representations of the airframe structure, the hat racks and hat rack masses, the floor and seat tracks, the luggage in the cargo hold for the forward section, and the detailed under-floor structure in the wing-box section. Initially, concentrated masses were used to represent the inertial properties of the seats, restraints, and ATD occupants. However, later simulations were performed that included finite element representations of the seats, restraints, and ATD occupants. These models were developed to more accurately replicate the seat loading of the floor and to enable prediction of occupant impact responses. Models were executed to generate analytical predictions of airframe responses, which were compared with test data to validate the model. Comparisons of predicted and experimental structural deformation and failures were made. Finally, predicted and experimental soil deformation and crater depths were also compared for both drop test configurations.

Jackson, Karen E.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Determination of the effects of heating on modal characteristics of an aluminum plate with application to hypersonic vehicles

The structural integrity of proposed high speed aircraft can be seriously affected by the extremely high surface temperatures and large temperature gradients throughout the vehicle's structure. Variations in the structure's elastic characteristics as a result of thermal effects can be seen by changes in vibration characteristics. Analysis codes that predict these changes must be correlated and verified with experimental data. Analytical and experimental modal test results are given from uniform, nonuniform, and transient thermoelastic vibration tests of a 12 x 50 x 0.19 aluminum plate. The data show the effect of heat on the modal characteristics of the plate. The results showed that frequencies decreased, damping increased, and mode shapes remained unchanged as the temperature of the plate increased. Analytical predictions provided good correlation with experimental results.

Snyder, H. Todd↗

NASA NTRS2002

Initial Mechanical Testing of Superalloy Lattice Block Structures Conducted

The first mechanical tests of superalloy lattice block structures produced promising results for this exciting new lightweight material system. The testing was performed in-house at NASA Glenn Research Center's Structural Benchmark Test Facility, where small subelement-sized compression and beam specimens were loaded to observe elastic and plastic behavior, component strength levels, and fatigue resistance for hundreds of thousands of load cycles. Current lattice block construction produces a flat panel composed of thin ligaments arranged in a three-dimensional triangulated trusslike structure. Investment casting of lattice block panels has been developed and greatly expands opportunities for using this unique architecture in today's high-performance structures. In addition, advances made in NASA's Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology Program have extended the lattice block concept to superalloy materials. After a series of casting iterations, the nickel-based superalloy Inconel 718 (IN 718, Inco Alloys International, Inc., Huntington, WV) was successfully cast into lattice block panels; this combination offers light weight combined with high strength, high stiffness, and elevated-temperature durability. For tests to evaluate casting quality and configuration merit, small structural compression and bend test specimens were machined from the 5- by 12- by 0.5-in. panels. Linear elastic finite element analyses were completed for several specimen layouts to predict material stresses and deflections under proposed test conditions. The structural specimens were then subjected to room-temperature static and cyclic loads in Glenn's Life Prediction Branch's material test machine. Surprisingly, the test results exceeded analytical predictions: plastic strains greater than 5 percent were obtained, and fatigue lives did not depreciate relative to the base material. These assets were due to the formation of plastic hinges and the redundancies inherent in lattice block construction, which were not considered in the simplified computer models. The fatigue testing proved the value of redundancies since specimen strength was maintained even after the fracture of one or two ligaments. This ongoing test program is planned to continue through high-temperature testing. Also scheduled for testing are IN 718 lattice block panels with integral face sheets, as well as specimens cast from a higher temperature alloy. The initial testing suggests the value of this technology for large panels under low and moderate pressure loadings and for high-risk, damage-tolerant structures. Potential aeropropulsion uses for lattice blocks include turbine-engine actuated panels, exhaust nozzle flaps, and side panel structures.

Krause, David L.↗

NASA NTRS1972

A wind-tunnel evaluation of analytical techniques for predicting static stability and control characteristics of flexible aircraft

An experimental evaluation of analytical techniques for predicting certain stability and control characteristics of a large flexible aircraft is presented. Analytical methods based on both the model approach and flexibility influence coefficients are developed to predict the aerodynamic characteristics of a flexible airplane. These methods are then applied to a flexibly scaled model of a supersonic transport configuration. Comparisons of wind-tunnel data, calculations based on the model approach, and flexibility influence coefficients are presented over the Mach number range from 0.6 to 2.7. An examination of the results obtained from this study indicates that both analytical techniques predict reasonably well the effect of flexibility on the basic longitudinal characteristics and that both techniques give generally comparable results.

Abel, I.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tandem Predictions for HPC Jobs

At the core of the predictive analytics applied to High Performance Computing (HPC), the most prominent tasks are the prediction of job runtimes and the prediction of job queue times, both of which have the potential for informing HPC users during their every-day decision making. Accurate runtime predictions can help users better choose so-called wallclock times at job submission, decreasing the odds of their jobs waiting in queues longer than necessary. The accurate and timely queue time predictions offered for the available partitions can inform the favorable selection of partitions for running jobs. This potential is well understood as we see in the abundance of research studies that propose solutions for these tasks, including the work published in the last several years. These tasks are seemingly receptive to the Machine Learning (ML) solutions, considering that there is no shortage of training data where HPC centers over time run millions and millions of jobs. However, we study the existing research literature, as well as look for examples in the toolchains supported on the exemplar HPC facilities, and, surprisingly, do not find any practical solutions that are ready to be adopted. We interpret this as a manifestation of the shortage of UX/UI efforts that support HPC analytics and also as a sign that the research has not come to the consensus on solving these tasks. In this study, we aim to shed new light on the long-running task of job queue time prediction by exploring the utility of runtime predictions in improving prediction accuracy and, actually, predicting these two metrics together, in tandem. In other words, we show how runtime predictions become valuable input in the queue time modeling. We challenge the existing approaches to feature engineering for the queue time prediction and describe promising results we obtained for a large dataset of HPC jobs from a supercomputer at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

HPC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tandem Predictions for HPC Jobs: Preprint

At the core of the predictive analytics applied to High Performance Computing (HPC), the most prominent tasks are the prediction of job runtimes and the prediction of job queue times, both of which have the potential for informing HPC users during their every-day decision making. Accurate runtime predictions can help users better choose so-called wallclock times at job submission, decreasing the odds of their jobs waiting in queues longer than necessary. The accurate and timely queue time predictions offered for the available partitions can inform the favorable selection of partitions for running jobs. This potential is well understood as we see in the abundance of research studies that propose solutions for these tasks, including the work published in the last several years. These tasks are seemingly receptive to the Machine Learning (ML) solutions, considering that there is no shortage of training data where HPC centers over time run millions and millions of jobs. However, we study the existing research literature, as well as look for examples in the toolchains supported on the exemplar HPC facilities, and, surprisingly, do not find any practical solutions that are ready to be adopted. We interpret this as a manifestation of the shortage of UX/UI efforts that support HPC analytics and also as a sign that the research has not come to the consensus on solving these tasks. In this study, we aim to shed new light on the long-running task of job queue time prediction by exploring the utility of runtime predictions in improving prediction accuracy and, actually, predicting these two metrics together, in tandem. In other words, we show how runtime predictions become valuable input in the queue time modeling. We challenge the existing approaches to feature engineering for the queue time prediction and describe promising results we obtained for a large dataset of HPC jobs from a supercomputer at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Driven resonant current amplification in self-organized plasma configurations with uniform λ and plasma pressure confinement

Driven resonant current amplification in uniform λ=$^{μoJ}_{B}$, self-organized plasma configurations with plasma pressure confinement is studied. This work extends previous analyses of force-free states (J ∥ B) to equilibria with plasma pressure gradients (∇P = J × B ≠ 0). An analytical treatment shows that in equilibria with uniform λ and a plasma pressure gradient that varies linearly with poloidal magnetic flux, driven resonances are either downshifted or upshifted from their force-free values. Additionally, a modification of off resonance current amplification is observed in pressure confining equilibria. Computational results add support to analytical predictions, and also include driven resonance behavior with equilibrium profiles not considered analytically. Furthermore, these results suggest not only persistence, but also modification of driven resonant current amplification in sustained spheromak configurations with plasma pressure confinement when compared to force-free states. By providing a basis for the existence of driven, high current amplification, pressure confining equilibria, this work provides insight into the accessibility of sustained spheromak states of most interest for potential fusion energy applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-630: Predictive Modeling of Mortality, Tumor Control, and Normal Tissue Complications After Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy for Stage I Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Purpose: While rates of local control have been well characterized after stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), less data are available characterizing survival and normal tissue toxicities, and no validated models exist assessing these parameters after SBRT. We evaluate the reliability of various machine learning techniques when applied to radiation oncology datasets to create predictive models of mortality, tumor control, and normal tissue complications. Methods: A dataset of 204 consecutive patients with stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) at the University of Pennsylvania between 2009 and 2013 was used to create predictive models of tumor control, normal tissue complications, and mortality in this IRB-approved study. Nearly 200 data fields of detailed patient- and tumor-specific information, radiotherapy dosimetric measurements, and clinical outcomes data were collected. Predictive models were created for local tumor control, 1- and 3-year overall survival, and nodal failure using 60% of the data (leaving the remainder as a test set). After applying feature selection and dimensionality reduction, nonlinear support vector classification was applied to the resulting features. Models were evaluated for accuracy and area under ROC curve on the 81-patient test set. Results: Models for common events in the dataset (such as mortality at one year) had the highest predictive power (AUC = .67, p < 0.05). For rare occurrences such as radiation pneumonitis and local failure (each occurring in less than 10% of patients), too few events were present to create reliable models. Conclusion: Although this study demonstrates the validity of predictive analytics using information extracted from patient medical records and can most reliably predict for survival after SBRT, larger sample sizes are needed to develop predictive models for normal tissue toxicities and more advanced machine learning methodologies need be consider in the future.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

NASA NTRS1974

Centaur Standard Shroud (CSS) full jettison test dynamic analysis

During the space power facility jettison tests, the non-domed half of the Centaur standard shroud was allowed to completely separate from its hinge connection and was caught in a horizontal catch net. A rigid body dynamic analysis that was performed to predict the half shroud prior to and after net contact is presented. Analytical predictions of the longitudinal and circumferential bending moments imposed on the half shroud by the catch net and the net pressure on the half shroud corrugated skin are also presented.

Kasper, H. J.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Measurement and analysis of critical crack tip processes during fatigue crack growth

The mechanics of fatigue crack growth under constant-amplitudes and variable-amplitude loading were examined. Critical loading histories involving relatively simple overload and overload/underload cycles were studied to provide a basic understanding of the underlying physical processes controlling crack growth. The material used for this study was 7091-T7E69, a powder metallurgy aluminum alloy. Local crack-tip parameters were measured at various times before, during, and after the overloads, these include crack-tip opening loads and displacements, and crack-tip strain fields. The latter were useed, in combination with the materials cyclic and monotonic stress-strain properties, to compute crack-tip residual stresses. The experimental results are also compared with analytical predictions obtained using the FAST-2 computer code. The sensitivity of the analytical model to constant-amplitude fatigue crack growth rate properties and to through-thickness constrain are studied.

Davidson, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Divergence study of a high-aspect ratio, forward-swept wing

A study has been conducted in the NASA-Langley Transonic Dynamics wind tunnel to determine the divergence characteristics of a high aspect ratio forward swept wing of rectangular planform, for sweep angles of zero, -15, -30, -45, and -60 deg. In addition to a rectangular wingtip, a tip whose geometry lay parallel with the freestream flow was tested at a sweep angle of -45 deg. The primary objective was to obtain data that could be used to verify the divergence prediction capabilities of an aeroelastic analysis code employing kernel function aerodynamics. The analytical predictions of convergence were found to be conservative for all forward sweep angles, and the effect of the two tip shapes on divergence dynamic pressure were accurately predicted.

Cole, S. R.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Mechanical behavior of fiber reinforced SiC/RBSN ceramic matrix composites: Theory and experiment

The mechanical behavior of continuous fiber reinforced SiC/RBSN (Reaction Bonded Silicon Nitride) composites with various fiber contents is evaluated. Both catastrophic and noncatastrophic failures are observed in tensile specimens. Damage and failure mechanisms are identified via in-situ monitoring using NDE (nondestructive evaluation) techniques through the loading history. Effects of fiber/matrix interface debonding (splitting) parallel to fibers are discussed. Statistical failure behavior of fibers is also observed, especially when the interface is weak. Micromechanical models incorporating residual stresses to calculate the critical matrix cracking strength, ultimate strength, and work of pull-out are reviewed and used to predict composite response. For selected test problems, experimental measurements are compared to analytical predictions.

Chulya, Abhisak↗

NASA NTRS1991

Mechanical behavior of fiber reinforced SiC/RBSN ceramic matrix composites - Theory and experiment

The mechanical behavior of continuous fiber reinforced SiC/RBSN (Reaction Bonded Silicon Nitride) composites with various fiber contents is evaluated. Both catastrophic and noncatastrophic failures are observed in tensile specimens. Damage and failure mechanisms are identified via in-situ monitoring using NDE (nondestructive evaluation) techniques throughout the loading history. Effects of fiber/matrix interface debonding (splitting) parallel to fibers are discussed. Statistical failure behavior of fibers is also observed, especially when the interface is weak. Micromechanical models incorproating residual stresses to calculate the critical matrix cracking strength, ultimate strength, and work of pull-out are reviewed and used to predict composite response. For selected test problems, experimental measurements are compared to analytical predictions.

Chulya, Abhisak↗

NASA NTRS2013

Thermal Testing of a Stacked Core Mirror for UV Applications

The ASTRO2010 Decadal Survey stated that an advanced large-aperture ultraviolet, optical, near-infrared (UVOIR) telescope is required to enable the next generation of compelling astrophysics and exoplanet science; and, that present technology is not mature enough to affordably build and launch any potential UVOIR mission concept. Under Science and Technology funding, NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center and ITT Exelis have developed a more cost effective process to make 4m monolithic spaceflight UV quality, low areal density, thermally and dynamically stable primary mirrors. A proof of concept mirror was built and tested down to 250K which would allow imaging out to 2.5 microns. This mirror was thermally tested at the Marshall Spaceflight Center to understand the thermal changes between the processing temperature of 293K and the potential low end of the operational temperature of 250K. Isothermal testing results and front plate gradient results have been evaluated and compared to analysis predictions. Measurement of gravity effects on surface figure will be compared to analytical predictions. Future testing of a larger Pathfinder mirror will also be discussed.

Matthews, Gary↗

NASA NTRS2013

Thermal Testing of a Stacked Core Mirror for UV Applications

The ASTRO2010 Decadal Survey stated that an advanced large-aperture ultraviolet, optical, near-infrared (UVOIR) telescope is required to enable the next generation of compelling astrophysics and exoplanet science; and, that present technology is not mature enough to affordably build and launch any potential UVOIR mission concept. Under Science and Technology funding, NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center and ITT Exelis have developed a more cost effective process to make 4m monolithic spaceflight UV quality, low areal density, thermally and dynamically stable primary mirrors. A proof of concept mirror was built and tested down to 250K which would allow imaging out to 2.5 microns. This mirror was thermally tested at the Marshall Spaceflight Center to understand the thermal changes between the processing temperature of 293K and the potential low end of the operational temperature of 250K. Isothermal testing results and front plate gradient results have been evaluated and compared to analysis predictions. Measurement of gravity effects on surface figure will be compared to analytical predictions. Future testing of a larger Pathfinder mirror will also be discussed.

Matthews, Gary W.↗

DOE OSTI2016

EVOLUTION OF GALAXY GROUPS IN THE ILLUSTRIS SIMULATION

We present the first study of the evolution of galaxy groups in the Illustris simulation. We focus on dynamically relaxed and unrelaxed galaxy groups representing dynamically evolved and evolving galaxy systems, respectively. The evolutionary state of a group is probed from its luminosity gap and separation between the brightest group galaxy and the center of mass of the group members. We find that the Illustris simulation overproduces galaxy systems with a large luminosity gap, known as fossil systems, in comparison to observations and the probed semi-analytical predictions. However, this simulation is just as successful as the probed semi-analytic model in recovering the correlation between luminosity gap and offset of the luminosity centroid. We find evolutionary tracks based on luminosity gap that indicate that a group with a large luminosity gap is rooted in one with a small luminosity gap, regardless of the position of the brightest group galaxy within the halo. This simulation helps to explore, for the first time, the black hole mass and its accretion rate in galaxy groups. For a given stellar mass of the brightest group galaxies, the black hole mass is larger in dynamically relaxed groups with a lower rate of mass accretion. We find this to be consistent with the latest observational studies of radio activity in the brightest group galaxies in fossil groups. We also find that the intragalactic medium in dynamically evolved groups is hotter for a given halo mass than that in evolving groups, again consistent with earlier observational studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1976

Experimental study of transient liquid motion in orbiting spacecraft

A test program was conducted involving forty-five drops of liquid propellant in instrumented tanks. Biaxial, low-g accelerations were applied to the model propellant tanks during free-fall testing, and forces exerted during liquid reorientation were measured and recorded. High speed photographic records of the liquid reorientation were also made. The test data was used to verify a mechanical analog which portrays the liquid as a point mass moving on an ellipsoidal constraint surface. The mechanical analog was coded into two FORTRAN 4 digital computer programs. Results showed excellent correlation between test data and analytical predictions of reorientation forces and liquid center of mass motion, verifying the basic analytical approach.

Berry, R. L.↗